Sunday, July 08, 2018

Trump's Favorability Has Dropped In Every Single State-- And That Will Hurt Republicans In November

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Trump is underwater-- and so is his party-- especially in swing states

We were all aware that Señor Trumpanzee’s net approval rating-- the percentage of people who approve of the president minus the percentage who disapprove-- has declined nationally since January 2017 but what's a little surprising is that Señor T's net approval has declined in all 50 states since he took office. ALL.50.STATES. The states where he fell the hardest were blue states where people had decided to keep an open mind and to give him a chance after he moved into the White House-- like New Mexico, where he started out with a net approval of +17, Illinois, where he started out with a net approval of +9 and New York, where he started out with a net approval of +8. Ah... those were the days. New Mexico's net approval has taken a nose drive: -14 (down 31 points!). Same with Illinois. The latest net approval was -22 (down 31 points). New York wasn't much better: net approval is now -21... a drop of 29 points.

Some red states are in the process of giving up on Trump as well. Utah was never Trump country but once he moved into the White House Utahans gave him a healthy net approval of +27. It is now 0, meaning positives and negatives are even. Trump is still in positive ground in red, red Oklahoma, where he won every single county in the state and beat Hillary 949,136 (65.3%) to 420,375 (28.9%). His net approval started as one of the highest in the country-- +34 and has now fallen (as you might surmised from all the special elections that have gone to Democrats in red districts) to +11, a drop of 23 points.

OK, what about the dozen swing states, the Russians were working actively in to help him steal the election? Lookin' bad! Or lookin' good, depending on your perspective:
Wisconsin started out at +6, is now at -12, an 18 point drop
Michigan started out at +8, is now at -9, a 17 point drop
Ohio started out at +14, is now at -4, an 18 point drop
Florida started out at +22, is now at +5, a 17 point drop
Iowa started out at +9, is now at -7, a 16 point drop
North Carolina started out at +18, is now at +2, a 16 point drop
Pennsylvania started out at +10,i s now at -4, a 14 point drop
New Hampshire started out at +1, is now at -15, a 16 point drop
Minnesota started out at +3, is now at -15, an 18 point drop
Maine started out at +8, is now at -6, a 14 point drop
Virginia started out at +8, is now at -6, a 14 point drop
Nevada started out at +10, is now at -2, a 12 point drop
Trump's toxicity will play a factor in most of these states swinging blue in November, especially in House races. It's conceivable, for example that Iowa, which now has 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans in the House will wind up with 4 Democrats and no Republicans. JD Scholten, the progressive Democrat who won a majority in a 3-person primary told us he gets "asked all the time 'Why does Steve King get re-elected?' Well, for the longest time in Iowa’s 4th district we heard that’s just Steve being Steve, like that weird uncle. The Trump effect in our district relates to people saying 'No more.' It stems from not only King’s controversial statements but his weakness to fight for this district. It’s clear that King goes along with Trump and is trying to push his self-interested ideology more so than helping the people in Iowa’s 4th. That's what is going to make this R+11 race turn into a toss up come November."

Or look at statewide races where Trump's toxicity is likely to be catastrophic for the GOP. The latest polling in Pennsylvania shows Senate incumbent Bob Casey (D) crushing GOP challenger Lou Barletta 44-27% and incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D) crushing Republican Scott Wagner 48-29%. Look for as many as half a dozen congressional seats in Pennsylvania to flip red to blue.


Ohio has a similar statewide dynamic playing out-- current polling shows Senate incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) beating Rep. Jim Renacci either 51-34% or 53-37%, depending on which poll. In the open gubernatorial seat, Democrat Richard Cordray holds a narrow lead over Ohio Attorney General Mike Dewine, either 42-40% or 43-36%.

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8 Comments:

At 5:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Polls also showed Hillary racing away with the victory in 2016. How'd that work our again?

Things can change, and very quickly. Don't think Trump's henchmen don't have plans to try to pull something to prevent losses.

 
At 6:11 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

Anyone who supports Trump is a BAD PERSON who does not care about people, children, democracy, the environment or our longstanding allies.

One can only hope, Howie, that the real American will come through in November. .

Never Give Up. I proudly wear a tee shirt with this message.

 
At 6:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

remember that polls include folks who won't be voting because there will only be Nazis and democraps to choose from, and neither party is worthy of a vote.

among Nazi voters, trump enjoys an 88% favorable. That won't change.

among likely non-Nazi voters, democraps enjoy favorables that are much less in most districts/states.

The rest, who outnumber both the other sects, are dismissive of both parties, justifiably.

And I agree with 5:14. If it looks bleak, especially with the new Nazi on the court, trump will call it 'fixed' and suspend the elections using national security as the excuse.

Pelosi will do nothing except stutter. as usual. Scummer will glower. manchin will immediately switch parties.

Hone, back from France already? How was it?

 
At 9:24 AM, Blogger Thomas Ten Bears said...

Stop counting chickens before they hatch. All over the net today, bluewave, bluewave, bluewave. Counting chickens before they hatch. Stop.

 
At 9:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TTB, it's not a blue wave. It's anti-red. And there is still plenty of time for American voters to see just what shit the democraps are foisting upon them.

it's 2006 all over again. by 2010 the anti-red had flipped to anti-blue. it'll flip quicker this time I believe.

 
At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

9:55

We have one advantage this fall over the 2010 Midterm election: There is no "moderate 1985 Reagan Republican" DINO in the Oval Office to stab us in the back, call us fucking hippies, and kick us to the curb. We won't be getting our hopes up.

 
At 3:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Correct, 11:36. This is a carbon copy of the 2006 midterm anti-red (cheney, war, torture, patriot, nsa...) election.

cheney's evil had a number of Nazi voters uneasy which suppressed their turnout a bit. The resulting DxCC and DNC wave of newbies was a slate of neoliberal, fascist garbage that only foreshadowed this cycle's ocean of pig shit. But it was anti-red so even that shit slate won.

After Pelosi and harriet reid didn't do shit and let cheney continue his profitization of war and other atrocities, not to mention the well-timed collapse of Lehman and the beginning of the crash, the anti-red repeated and we got the black Reagan and his neofascist entourage in both chambers.

Hopey Changey did nothing but fellate wall street; congress did nothing but fellate their donors; and 2010 was anti-blue bigly... and now we got trump. Direct line from the obamanation/Pelosi/reid betrayals from 2006-2010.

Will we get our hopes up? Just read Howie's stuff. He admits that he'll hate himself for it, but he's hoping for change by repeating 2006 all over again.

In science, if you test a hypothesis and that test proves the hypothesis wrong, you come up with a new hypothesis.

In American politics, you just keep retesting the same wrong hypothesis and act shocked when the test proves, again and still, that you've been consistently wrong for 4 decades. SHOCKED, I say!!

 
At 6:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Only in this establishment, 3:08, the gambling is in EVERY room! Even poor, corrupt public officials can play.

 

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