Some Good News From Ohio For A Change

Ohio is usually the last place to look for anything progressive happen-- except when it does. The Democratic Party passed away years ago and it's entirely up to individual candidates, like Sherrod Brown, to win elections. The Cincinnati Enquirer reported yesterday that a poll they did with Suffolk University has some good news for Democrats, at least at the top of the ticket. Even there Trump's toxicity is weighting down GOP candidates. Democrat Richard Cordray is leading much better know Republican Mike DeWine in the governor's race, 43% to 36% and in the Senate race incumbent Sherrod Brown is ahead of Congressman (and billionaire) Jim Renacci 53% to 37% among likely voters. Trump endorsed Renacci in the primary but that didn't help much.

The state has a PVI of R+3 but Hillary and her status quo message never had a shot in Ohio and she gave up on the state early. Trump beat her 2,841,005 (51.69%) to 2,394,164 (43.56%). She won only 8 counties of Ohio's 88. Obama won the state both times he ran.

Trumpanzee's primary endorsement, reported the Enquirer, "might hurt Renacci in the general. Love or hate of Trump is the most important issue among those polled in how they’ll vote in the Senate. 

In the new poll, 49 percent of respondents said they wanted their vote in November "to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation." Only 28 percent said they were voting to support Trump's leadership. Nineteen percent said their vote didn't have much to do with Trump.

Those voting to oppose Trump and his policies showed higher levels of interest in the governor's race. Nearly three-fourths of those voters said they were "extremely" or "very" interested in the governor's race. That figure was lower-- about 60 percent-- among people who wanted to support Trump and among people who said their vote wasn't related to Trump.

In other words, some Trump voters aren't lining up to defend the Republican Party from activists bent on fighting back.

So Ohio may see a different electorate than in 2016. For instance, people of color's enthusiasm for voting meant they made up a higher percentage of respondents in the poll than in the 2016 election. The difference was a couple of percentage points, but enough to make a difference in a tight race.

In fact, if the turnout in 2016 had been identical to that indicated in this poll, Democrat Hillary Clinton would have won Ohio by 5 points over Trump, according to respondents' recollections of their 2016 votes. Instead, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points.

“They are more motivated to vote,” said Paleologos, the pollster, of people of color in 2018. And Trump supporters are less motivated.

“If the rest of the state’s turnout is lower, then that means that the people who are anti-Trump right now are going to drive the outcome,” he said.

...The poll's results also could reflect DeWine's status after a bruising GOP primary, in which DeWine survived nasty attacks from Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor.

Taylor attacked DeWine from the right. For instance, she said she would scrap Medicaid expansion, one of the signature achievements of her boss, Gov. John Kasich.

DeWine said he would push to keep the expansion because of the addiction treatment provided under it, but he would seek to overhaul it. Additional specifics were few.

In the poll, health care was the second-most important issue to voters, behind the economy. The next governor should keep Medicaid expansion in Ohio, 77 percent of respondents said. Cordray has vowed to do so.

Another poll of the Ohio statewide races was released yesterday, this one by Quinnipiac. It also showed Cordray and Brown leading DeWine and Renacci. Cordray's ahead 42% to 40%, too close to call. But Brown is leading Renacci 51-34%. Again, it's about Trump's toxicity. Ohio voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing 54 to 43%.

The moribund Ohio Democratic Party isn't helping any of the down-ticket candidates and I don't see any of the congressional districts flipping from red to blue. The best possibilities-- all real long shots-- are OH-01, where Aftab Pureval could displace Steve Chabot, OH-07, where Ken Harbaugh could beat Bob Gibbs, OH-10 and OH-15 where a mega-wave could carry, respectively, Theresa Gasper and Rick Neal to wins over Michael Turner and Steve Stivers. But, like I said, they would really need a mega-wave-- tsunami-plus. Unless you have money to burn, don't bet on any of them though. You can contribute to Sherrod Brown's campaign by tapping on the 2018 Senate thermometer on the right. If you decide to, please also drop something in the box for Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin who the Republicans are aiming all their heaviest artillery against.

By the way, earlier today, Elizabeth Warren endorsed Rick Neal, the progressive Democrat running for the Columbus-area seat occupied by Steve Stivers, head of the NRCC. I hope she has as much success with him as she's had with Katie Porter in Orange County. "Rick Neal is a fighter," she wrote. "He’s an outspoken advocate for health care, equality, and working families in Ohio, and he knows the meaning of service. He’s exactly the kind of person we need in Congress, and that’s why I’m proud to support his campaign... I believe in Rick-- and know that he will be a tireless advocate for working families in Ohio."