Thursday, June 28, 2018

New Polls In Florida, Ohio, New Jersey And Arizona Show Trump Is Toxic Enough To Flip Congress


Voters do NOT want Trump enablers and rubber stamps

The Democrats have some really weak-- even repulsive-- candidates. But it may not matter. Kyrsten Sinema, for example, is literally the worst Democrat in the House. Chair of the Blue Dogs, her ProgressivePunch crucial vote score is a dismal 35.44, the lowest "F" of any Democrat. But Schumer recognized a kindred spirit and gave her the nomination. And she's probably going to win anyway. Jacky Rosen-- another crap candidate of Schumer's (and Reid's)-- isn't as bad, because as soon as she was told she could be a senator, she started voting like a Democrat. But she's still plenty bad. She also has an "F" but her score is 53.51%, just between Blue Dogs Filemon Vega (TX) and Conor Lamb (PA). Polling consistently shows even the worst, useless Democrats, like Sinema and Rosen, are going to win anyway. Independent voters are freaking out over Trump and they want a Congress that will act as a check on his excesses and psychosis. And they've seen that Republicans are too scared of him-- or worse-- to do anything but behave as enablers and rubberstamps, even in red-leaning state.

Yesterday, Carrie Dann, writing for NBC News reported on recent polls in Arizona, Florida and Ohio (all states Trump won in 2016). Only a third of voters think Trump should be reelected and voters are going to take it out on Republicans in November. Florida's PVI is R+2. Ohio's is R+3 and Arizona's is a very red R+5. Republicans in Congress deserve what's headed their way.
In Arizona, 52 percent of registered voters say they’ll use their vote to send a message that the country needs more Democrats to serve as a check on Trump, while 36 percent said the nation needs more Republicans to pass his agenda.

While Trump won the state of Arizona by four points in 2016, he’s underwater now when it comes to his approval rating in the state. His job approval rating among registered voters in Arizona is 41 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove. And just 35 percent say definitively that Trump deserves to be re-elected, while 57 percent disagree.

In Florida, another key swing state that’s home to one of the marquee Senate races of the cycle, 49 percent of voters favor a Congress that serves as a check on Trump, while 40 percent want lawmakers to assist Trump in passing legislation. The president’s approval rating among voters in the Sunshine State is the highest of the three states surveyed by NBC and Marist-- at 45 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove. But a majority-- 54 percent-- still say that a new person should be given a chance in the White House, while 37 percent say they believe Trump deserves re-election.

And in Ohio, 51 percent want more Democrats in Congress in order to counter Trump’s efforts, while 35 percent say they’d like to see more Republicans on Capitol Hill to help the president advance his agenda. Forty-two percent of voters approve of Trump’s performance, while 49 percent disagree. And just 34 percent say Trump deserves to win another term.

It's worth noting that these surveys were in the field June 17-22, during a time when the national conversation was focused on the administration’s policy of separating migrant children from their parents.
Back to Sinema in Arizona. The Arizona poll shows she will beat any of the 3 Republican candidates.
Sinema- 57%, Joe Arpaio- 32%
Sinema- 49%, Martha McSally- 38%
Sinema- 49%, Kelli Ward- 38%
In Florida, Bill Nelson is leading Rick Scott 49-45%. On top of that, the gubernatorial candidate Trump keeps endorsing, crazy teabagger Ron DeSantis is way behind establishment candidate Adam Putnam-- 38% to 21%.

And in Ohio, the poll is also sour for the GOP. Sherrod Brown (D) is kicking Jim Renacci's ass, 51% to 38% and among registered voters, 51% want more Dems in Congress as a check on Trump while just 35% want more Republicans who will help Trump pass his agenda.

Will this work the same way in House races? Of course it will. Yesterday Monmouth released a new poll of New Jersey's open 11th district, where Rod Frelinghuysen has had enough of Trump and is retiring. The PVI is R+3 and Trump won the district by 1 point. (McCain and Romney did better.) Again, the Democrats have a worthless candidate who stands for nothing and offers the voters nothing at all: Mikie Sherrill... but she's leading Republican Jay Webber, 40% to 38% among likely voters.
The partisan enthusiasm gap is making this traditionally Republican district competitive for the first time in decades. A majority of all voters (55%) have a lot of interest in this election, but self-identified Democrats (67%) are significantly more likely than Republicans (48%) to feel that way.

“Right now this race is more about underlying partisan enthusiasm than it is about either of the two major party candidates because, to be frank, most voters don’t know much about either one of them. There is still a lot of room for movement in this race with the high number of undecided voters and low level of knowledge about the candidates,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“The recently passed tax reform bill may be the Trump presidency’s biggest legislative accomplishment to date, but it doesn’t play well in a district where the SALT cap is likely to hit hard,” said Murray. He added, “You wonder whether Sherrill would be doing even better if Frelinghuysen had chosen to run again, since it would have been harder for a party leader to separate himself from the Republican plan despite his own vote against it.”

Voters in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District are divided on their assessment of Donald Trump-- with 47% approving of the president’s job performance and 49% disapproving. They are slightly more likely to oppose (49%) rather than support (43%) what Trump is doing on most issues. Opponents (73%) are much more likely than supporters (56%) to say that it is very important for them to cast a vote for Congress that registers their feelings about the president.

NJ-11 voters are divided on whether they would rather see Republicans (40%) or Democrats (38%) in control of Congress, with another 18% saying that party control does not matter to them. When voters evaluate both parties, the GOP gets ever so slightly better positive ratings-- 35% favorable to 46% unfavorable for the Republican Party compared with 30% favorable to 44% unfavorable for the Democratic Party.

“Many voters in this district maintain a lifelong affiliation with the Republican Party. It’s just a different type of Republican Party than the one they see in control in Washington today. This political disconnect with the party is one factor that increases the district’s potential to flip,” said Murray.
In other words, Trump is toxic in all three swing states (and in NJ-11) that he won in 2016, augaring down ballot wins for the Democrats-- if the Kremlin doesn't interfere again. Watch this video that Chip Proser did for Ted Lieu. Then think about how serious a condition we're in now.

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At 1:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And WHO is counting the votes?

Remember THIS Oldie but Goodie from NYT Reporter MELANIE WARNER from November 9, 2003?

"Walden W. O'Dell, the chief executive of Diebold Inc., sat down at his computer to compose a letter inviting 100 wealthy and politically inclined friends to a Republican Party fund-raiser, to be held at his home in a suburb of Columbus, Ohio. ''I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year,'' wrote Mr. O'Dell, whose company is based in Canton, Ohio."

Diebold many be gone, but there remain many other companies run by Republicans who will do all they can to ensure that Republicans remain dominant in the government.

Save the celebrating until after the results are announced.

At 11:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

These 'polls' are bogus! Live in AZ and never get a contact on 'these' polls.

At 7:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Polls are wrong so often because they talk to a small number of "likely voters" or whatever and purport to extrapolate to a population of millions. And I'm not even going into push-polling for effect.

The democraps have not earned a single extra vote. So if trump is toxic enough to affect an anti-red wave, the democraps may receive that windfall.

But trump now enjoys sufficient support that if the anti-red wave looks big enough, he will (because he can and nobody will oppose it) declare the election "rigged", impose martial law and end elections using 'national security' as his excuse.

In the near future, the democrap party will be made illegal and disbanded, which will be a case of addition by subtraction since MAYBE the vast left majority will now have nothing to delusionally believe to be their saviors. They'll either go fetal or FINALLY do something useful... probably fetal... almost certainly fetal.


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