Friday, December 09, 2016

Hillary Won 7 California Districts That The DCCC Blew-- But Pelosi Re-Hired Lujan Anyway


Good help may be hard to find-- but for Pelosi, it's impossible to find

Let's look at some congressional districts where there was enough ticket splitting to elect a member of Congress from one party and a president from the other. Unfortunately, with not all votes in there are still some districts that are too close to call in the presidential race-- and the numbers of voters for Trump and Clinton are still not broken out by congressional district.

Working alphabetically, the first state with anomalies is Arizona. The state elected 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats to the House,although two of the Democrats-- Tom O'Halleran and Kyrsten Sinema-- are so far to the right, that they might as well be considered Republicans. Sinema, in fact, has the worst ProgressivePunch lifetime crucial vote score of any Democrat from any state going back to Congress next year (a dismal and abhorrent 36.63-- in a Tempe,Mesa, Scottsdale, Chandler district Obama won both against McCain and against Romney. Sinema, whose raised $3,927,992 to her opponent Dave Giles' $233,297 won 60.9-39.0%. The race between Trump and Clinton is still too close to call in the district. Same in gigantic AZ-01 (most of the eastern part of the state plus Flagstaff, some southern Phoenix and northern Tucson suburbs)-- too close to call between Trump and Hillary but "former" Republican/pretend Democrat Tom O'Halleran beat the gay sheriff, Paul Babeu, 50.7-43.4%, after outspending him significantly. (Obama lost the district with 48% both times he ran.) The only other district where Clinton may have beaten Trump, AZ-02 (Tucson), Republican Martha McSally triumphed over Matt Heinz (who, unlike O'Halleran, got ZERO help from the DCCC) 57-43%. Clinton out-performed Trump in the Tucson suburbs but votes are still being tabulated so the district numbers aren't in yet.

On to California where Clinton won seven red districts: CA-10 (Modesto), CA-21 (Central Valley), CA-25 (Santa Clarita), CA-39 (Orange County), CA-45 (Orange County), CA-48 (Orange County) and CA-49 (Orange County/San Diego), where Republican incumbents, respectively, Jeff Denham, David Valadao, Steve Knight, Ed Royce, Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher and Darrell Issa all managed to win reelection, primarily because even if the DCCC tried to be less competent they could't be as incompetent as they continue to prove themselves.

In Colorado, Clinton beat Trump in CO-06 (Aurora and the Denver suburbs) but Mike Coffman still managed to hang on 50.9-42.6%. He outspent Morgan Carroll, a credible candidate $2,725,315 to $2,326,607 but the GOP swamped the Democrats in outside spending $7.2 million to $5.2 million.

In Florida, it was the same ole, same ole: the two blue Miami-Dade, districts, FL-26 and FL-27, Clinton won (just as Obama had) but Wasserman Schultz made sure Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was reelected in one and the Democrats nominated an unelected corrupt Blue Dog, Joe Garcia, in the other district. What a mess. If Tim Canova manages to beat Wasserman Schultz in 2018, Ros-Lehtinen will be a guaranteed loss immediately after.

In Illinois, the Democrats seem to want to protect Peter Roskam for some reason I could never figure out. IL-06 (Chicagoland suburbs) went for Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012 and Clinton this year-- and reelected Republican Peter Roskam 59.2-40.8% with no DCCC participation whatsoever. Trump may have won IL-17 (Moline, Rock Island)-- still countin'-- while Blue Dog Cheri Bustos won reelection 60.3-39.7% in a dead race where she outraised Republican Patrick Harlan $3,249,480 to $11,284.

Trump swept Iowa-- like seem to have loved having him denigrate them and call them brain-damaged morons during the primaries-- and he won all 4 district, including IA-02, where Democrat Dave Loebsack was reelected 53.7-46.2%, outraging Republican Chris Peters $1,542,987 to $207,030.

Kansas was Trumpland, of course, but Hillary won KS-03 (Kansas City and its suburbs), while Kevin Yoder managed to beat DCCC recruit Jay Sidie (who was buried in GOP cash) 51.3-40.6%.

In Minnesota, Democrat Tim Walz managed to narrowly win his MN-01 southern tier district, despite a win by Trump. Walk outraised Republican Jim Hagedorn $1,462,926 to $311,542 and the NRCC stayed out of it. They probably would haven the seat had they jumped in. Conversely, up in MN-03 (the suburbs west of the Twin cities), Erik Paulsen managed to win 56.7-43.0% despite a Clinton win in the district. He outraised Blue Dog Terri Bonoff $4,493,021 to $1,656,703. Trump won MN-07 and MN-08, but both Democratic incumbents, progressive Rick Nolan and ultra-reactionary Blue Dog Collin Peterson both hung on, respectively 50.2-49.6% and 52.5-47.4%.

New Hampshire was finally officially awarded to Clinton yesterday but one district went strongly for her and one district, NH-01, went narrowly for Trump. Luckily, the DCCC didn't interfere in the congressional race and the progressiveDemocrat running, Carol Shea-Porter, despite being outspent won the three way race 45.8% to 44.4% to 7.0%. The incumbent Republican, Frank Guinta, spent, $1,117,756, gay Wall Street fake-Democrat who had some Bernie backing despite professing a desire to cut Social Security and Medicare (Sean O'Connor) ran as an independent to damage Shea-Porter and spent $1,056,281. Carol spent less than either: $1,025,533, but won the race. The NRCC threw around another $1,294,212 against Shea-Porter but it was badly spent and ineffectual.

In New Jersey, Trump managed to win the northern tier of the state, NJ-05, while the incumbent Republican extremist there, Scott Garrett, was defeated by Blue Dog Josh Gottheimer, who buried him in spending. Both Leonard Lance and Rodney Frelinghuysen faced severely under-financed opponents but both there districts, respectivley NJ-07 and NJ-11 are still too close to call and it looks like Clinton may have one them.

Across the river, Sean Patrick Maloney was reelected in NY-18, 55.2-44.8%, while Trump took his district. Clinton won the Syracuse district (NY-24) but the incredibly bad candidate, Collleen Deacon, who Kirsten Gillibrand and the DCCC forced on the district lost miserably to dull incumbent John Katko, 61.0-38.9%.

The 3 GOP-held Philly collar counties are all still GOP-held but this was ground-zero for Clinton's suburban moderate Republican strategy and it failed. PA-08, Bucks County, went for Trump and the other two, PA-06 and PA-07 are both till too close to call in the presidential race. Further north, Matt Cartwright won reelection, 53.8-46.2%, but Trump beat Clinton there (PA-17).

In Texas, where the suburbs did swing to Clinton, she won TX-07 (Houston suburbs) and TX-32 (Dallas suburbs), while right-wing GOP incumbents John Culberson and Pete Sessions were reelected handily, Sessions with no Democratic opponent at all, and Culbertson with one who had no money and no backing. Culbertson raised $1,169,866 and the Democrat, Jim Cargas raised $36,235. Culbertson walked away with a 56.2-43.8% win. In the heavily Latino south TX-23 district, it's still to close between Trump and Clinton to call but the DCCC managed to find a weak enough crap-canddiate, Pete Gallego, to lose to incumbent Will Hurd, albeit very narrowly. Democrats have been yammering for years about demographics making Texas bluer, are they expecting a shofar band to make a racket when it happens so they know?

In Virginia, Clinton won the DC suburban VA-10, but the flawed DCCC candidate, LuAnn Bennett lost to right-wing nut incumbent Barbara Comstock, who outraised her $4,634,196 to $2,200,188. The DCCC and House majority PAC flushed around $6 million down that rat-hole, while the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund spent around $7.4 million on Comstock.

In Wisconsin, Trump won the 3rd district in the west, while New Dem Ron Kind had no GOP opponent-- why should they bother when Kind is basically a Republican anyway?

The next time we look at this, we'll have all the completed tabulations but I know for the handful of people who like this kind of stuff, well... you're probably not going to find it anywhere else before 2017.

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At 7:41 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

TYT has been doing a terrific job going after The Establishment & the world is catching up on these jokers.

At 7:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd suggest Pelosi can find good help but that's the last thing she actually wants.

John Puma

At 10:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The DxCC is regrouping after their most recent disastrous showing in the polls. They only do what is good for themselves, and they aren't about to give up the lucrative income provided to induce them to sell out the nation by being so incredibly corrupt and placing agents of the other party into power.


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