Wednesday, April 13, 2016

It Doesn't Matter WHY Independent Voters Dislike Hillary, It Only Matters That They Do


Have you noticed that in state after state, polling starts in Hillary's favor and the more she and Bernie campaign, the closer than race becomes. The more Democratic primary voters see of her, the less they like her and the more they see of him, the more they like him. But, yes, in a lesser-of-two-evils race between Hillary and Trump, she can win. Probably the same holds true if the GOP puts up Cruz. Independents don't like her and they don't trust her-- and they make up over 40% of the electorate. They'll go for her over Trump, or they just won't vote. They embrace Bernie over Trump overwhelmingly and they strongly embrace Bernie over the rest of the Republicans as well. Tuesday a polling firm in Massachusetts examined the lay of the land there now. Remember, the April 12 primary saw her win 603,784 votes (50.1%) to his 586,716 (48.7%). She got 46 delegates and he got 45. Since then, Bernie's popularity has soared. Hillary's hasn't.
According to the poll, 62 percent of voters said they would support Clinton over Trump, compared to just over a quarter who said they would back the GOP front-runner-- a 36-point margin.

A similar margin of Massachusetts voters, 63 to 30 percent, meanwhile, said they would support the former secretary of state over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in a general election contest, the poll found.

Despite losing the state's March 1 primary, Sanders fared even better among Massachusetts voters when matched-up against Trump and Cruz, according to survey results.

The Vermont senator held a 47-point edge over both GOP White House hopefuls, besting Trump by a 70 to 23 percent margin and Cruz by a 71 to 24 percent margin, the poll found.

In each matchup about one-fifth of GOP voters said they would support the Democratic candidate-- either Clinton or Sanders-- over the Republican-- Trump or Cruz-- if the election were held today.

...Clinton's favorability rating also took a hit, with 46 percent saying they see her unfavorably compared to 52 percent in October. About a third of voters who expressed an unfavorable view, however, said they would still vote for the former first lady over Trump or Cruz.

Sanders, meanwhile, saw favorability spike from 48 percent in October to 63 percent in the new survey.
That's why Hillary's lead in California doesn't worry me now. That lead is mostly name recognition among low0information voters who have no idea how terrible she is and how conservative her antiquated vision of governance is. Polling in California's most recent poll shows her winning 47-41% (+6), a smaller margin from a mid-March poll in the L.A. Times that had her ahead 47-36% (+11).
Sanders, the senator from Vermont, is pummeling Clinton by 25 percentage points among likely voters in their 30s, and by an even wider margin among younger voters, according to the poll.

Sanders leads Clinton by 10 percentage points among independent voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary. 
For Sanders, the poll offers a significant measure of the candidate’s ability to compete in a large and diverse state, with the New York primary looming on April 19.

Sanders still trails Clinton among Latino voters in California, but only by 7 percentage points, according to the poll.

Early in the campaign, DiCamillo said, “Latinos would be a traditionally strong segment for Hillary, she’d have it in her back pocket.”

Now, he said, “it’s one of the segments that’s moving away.”

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At 11:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Independents DON'T matter. Obama lost them by a huge margin in 2012 & yet was comfortably re-elected President & had strong coattails for the Senate.

Most indepedents are whites anyway & Sanders has utterly & completely failed to attract Hispanic OR black voters whereas Hillary has.

Hillary is following the Obama 2012 path to the Whitehouse. I have no reason to believe that an alternative Sanders path could succeed. Hillary has simply done more to earn non-white voter support than Sanders (he's not bad, it's just that she's league better.)

At 12:49 AM, Blogger blanche deveraux said...

Whats w all these Hill bots infesting my favorite blog

At 12:49 AM, Blogger blanche deveraux said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 5:29 AM, Blogger Eamonn Conlin said...

There's a lot more Independents now than in 2012. A lot more anger and discontent among the electorate. And Hillary is no Obama.


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