Friday, April 01, 2016

Ignore The Corporate Media Hype-- Bernie Is Winning... And In More Ways Than One


Conventional wisdom, which is getting a really bad name, predicted that Hillary would easily beat Bernie in Wisconsin (and he might as well quit the race, a notion constantly harped on by the establishment media, especially NBC). They cited an Emerson poll conducted March 20-22 of likely Democratic primary voters. That poll had Hillary up over Bernie 50 to 44%. Her 6 point lead though, evaporated as soon as Bernie hit the state and started speaking to Democratic primary voters.

Marquette Law School's poll surveyed likely Democratic primary voters between March 24 and 28 and it showed Bernie pulling ahead 49-45%, Clinton 6 point advantage turning into a 4 point deficit. A 10 point swing is significant, especially in less than a week. Then yesterday PPP released it's poll for Wisconsin and Bernie's positive momentum continued apace. In fact, the 6 point Hillary advantage is now a 6 point Bernie advantage. Again it is independent voters that destroy Clinton. Bernie beats her 62-31% among independents who lean Democratic and plan to vote in the Democratic primary. Wisconsin-- like November-- is a state that allows independents to vote. Since they make up around 40% of the general election electorate, that's a smart way of doing it, albeit terrible for Clinton, who is detested by independents (though not as much as Trump is).

PPP points out that "Sanders is strong with voters under 45 (a 65/28 lead), those who identify as ‘very liberal’ (59/37), and men (56/39). The only group Clinton has a substantial lead with is seniors, at 63/30." Bernie also leads significantly among African-American voters (51-40%).

The Bernie camp is hoping that a big win in Wisconsin next Tuesday will help Bernie continue the momentum he's gaining in New York for the primary there 2 weeks later (April 19). A massive 291 delegates are at stake in New York (almost 200 more than in Wisconsin). The Tuesday after that though (April 26) is another SuperTuesday that includes Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware (for a total of 462 delegates). As Brent Budowsky, one of the few DC insiders not in the bag for Hillary, wrote yesterday, Bernie is winning the battle of ideas in the presidential campaign-- and by a landslide. In part because Bernie runs so much better than Clinton in head-to-head general election match-ups against each of the Republican contenders (though none of these baboons are publicly polling Ryan yet), "Clinton has been moving to adapt the Sanders tone of progressive populism, which," Budowsky contends, "is good for Clinton, good for Democrats and a major victory for Sanders."

There is essentially a kind of sub-primary between Sanders and Trump in the battle of ideas in opposing the establishment and promoting real and powerful change. If the Sanders-Trump contest for the anti-establishment mantle was a boxing contest, the fight would have already ended by a knockout for Sanders-- the lead that Sanders has over Trump, in poll after poll, is so huge that if the general election follows the polling, Democrats would win a majority of the House and Senate.

Let's consider why Sanders runs stronger than Clinton in match-up polls against Republicans, and why Sanders obliterates Trump such gigantic margins in polling.

Young people: Most young people today would tend to be either traditionally liberal in the style of Sanders, or libertarian in the style of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Sanders as the vigorous opponent of the establishment appeals to both groups. Trump is widely disliked by liberals and Sanders has a huge advantage over Trump with libertarians because of Trump's overbearing and hostile style that some conservatives and liberals have compared to neo-fascism.

Sanders also leads Clinton among young women and leads Trump, who has taken the GOP war against women to new heights, among all women.

Independents: Sanders has powerful appeal to political independents. He is seen as honest, authentic, reformist and anti-establishment and radiates a political goodwill, compared to the hostility that Trump radiates, which is anathema to political independents.

This support for Sanders from independents is one major reason why he runs ahead of Clinton in general election match-ups and so much stronger than Trump in head-to-head polling.

White blue-collar workers: Often called "Reagan Democrats," the Sanders form of populism has great appeal to this group. He offers strong opposition to insiders, strong support for increased minimum wage and strong opposition to trade agreements that are seen as having lost American jobs. Trump also opposes many of the same trade policies that Sanders opposes, but Trump not only opposes an increase in the minimum wage, he has stated that, in his opinion, American workers are actually overpaid-- an absurd notion that is offensive to working-class Reagan Democrats and blue-collar workers generally.

In the battle of ideas within the Democratic Party, Sanders runs stronger than Clinton against Republicans while Clinton has been adopting a growing number of Sanders' themes.

In the battle of ideas for the anti-establishment mantle, Sanders is winning by a huge margin over Trump.

In the battle of ideas for the future of America, the fact that Sanders is winning the battle of ideas in the campaign offers powerful testimony to the surge of progressive populism that insiders and mainstream media do not appreciate, but American voters do!
Electing Bernie to the presidency should be first and foremost in the mind of every progressive in America. It is also crucial to elect more progressives to Congress-- to help Bernie pass his legislation if he does win or to help pressure whichever conservative wins if he doesn't. And, you can support Bernie's campaign and the campaigns of the congressional candidates who have endorsed him and who are running on his issues by tapping on the thermometer:
Goal Thermometer

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At 9:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A good post! It's a shame that Hillary's zombies won't ever admit that certain verifiable facts she that Bernie still has a good shot at winning the primary. This is likely to mean that the DNC will be watching what the RNC does to steal the nomination away from Trump, as they will have the same incentive to steal it from Bernie.

At 10:42 AM, Blogger lukeness said...

We've seen primaries in states with early voting difficult for Sanders to win. I understand that Wisconsin has early voting, and perhaps Clinton will have built up a lead among early voters before the Sanders campaign got to full strength in the last week. Hopefully, Sanders can overcome this, but I'm concerned.

At 1:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Concern is good, provided you don't let it lock you into fear.


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