Wednesday, November 05, 2014

A Very Bad Cycle For The Republican Wing Of The Democratic Party


No surprise that McConnell won. And not a surprise that that was the very first race called last night. The Democrats had a weak, inauthentic, poll-driven candidate who didn't inspire anyone who didn't already hate McConnell or who wanted a family friend of Bill and Hill to win or just a generic woman in office. McConnell won by a bigger margin than most pundits were predicting-- 754,777 (55.7%) to 557,652 (41.2%). But all those millions of dollars spent on her race were hardly a waste. As of the October 15 FEC reporting deadline, Alison Grimes had raised $17,487,650 and McConnell had been forced to raise $27,956,687 to defend his seat. As far as independent expenditures, the DSCC spent $2,240,122 and the Senate Majority PAC spent another $5,590,112. Various unions and Democratic-allied groups spent another couple million plus.

Not only did the robust campaign keep McConnell in Kentucky, he kept all his millions in Kentucky as well, unable to help Republican candidates like Terri Lynn Land (MI) and Scott Brown (NH).

Independent spending by right-wing organizations in Kentucky were massive. Millions of dollars that would have gone to help other Republicans were channeled into defending McConnell. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $1,569,620, including $403,500 just last week. The NRA spent $1,585,811 and a couple of McConnell-controlled super pacs, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership and Kentucky Opportunity Coalition spent over $14,000,000. Right-wing outside groups spent $16,809,299 savaging Grimes and another $5,122,096 trying to make McConnell look vaguely human. All that money would have been spent in Iowa, North Carolina, Michigan, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico, Georgia, New Hampshire, Virginia and across the country bolstering Republicans.

One trend that was interesting last night is that clear, strong progressives like Jeff Merkley (OR), Tom Udall (NM), Brian Schatz (HI) and Al Franken (MN)-- who had massive right-wing money thrown at them-- won, while conservative Democrats like Mark Warner, Mary Landrieu, Mark Udall, and Kay Hagan stumbled and the most conservative Democrat of all, Mark Pryor, lost badly. In the House, conservative Democrats-- Blue Dogs and New Dems-- lost everywhere, even in Democratic districts. Almost all of Israel's Red-to-Blue recruits lost, as did many of his Frontline incumbents. This is what Steve Israel did to the House Democrats, first among incumbents (along with the PVIs):
AZ-02- McSally leads Barber 50.01 to 49.99% (74.74% counted)- R+3
CA07- Ose beat Bera 51.37 to 48.63%- even PVI
CA-16- Tacherra beat Costa 50.53 to 49.47%- D+7
CA-52- DeMaio beat Peters 50.26 to 49.74%- D+2
FL-26- Curbelo beat Garcia 51.50 to 48.50%- R+1
GA-12- Allen beat Barrow 54.78 to 45.22%- R+9
IL-10- Dold beat Schneider 51.80 to 48.20%- D+8
IL-12- Bost beat Enyart 52.68 to 41.64%- even PVI
NV-04- Hardy leads Horsford 48.53 to 45.75 (99.78% counted)- D+4
NH-01- Guinta leads Shea-Porter 51.32 to 48.68% (87.61% counted)- R+1
NY-01- Zeldin beat Bishop 54.8 to 45.2%- R+2
NY-24- Katko beat Maffei 59.90 to 40.10%- D+5
TX-23- Hurd leads Gallego 49.79 to 47.67 (99.7% counted)- R+3
WV-03- Jenkins beat Rahall 55.33 to 44.67%- R+14
As for Israel's Red to Blue recruits... ugly, very ugly:
AR-01- Crawford beat McPherson 63.54- 32.11%- R+14
AR-02- Hill beat Hays 51.91- 43.62%- R+8
AR-04- Westerman beat Witt 53.67- 42.67%- R+15
CA-10- Denham beat Eggman 56.38- 43.62%- R+1
CA-21- Valadao beat Renteria 59.26- 40.74%- D+2
CA-25- Israel screwed up the jungle primary, leaving no Democrat in the race- R+3
CO-06- Coffman leads Romanoff 52.88- 42.26% (78.46 counted)- D+1
FL-13- Israel's bungling gave Jolly a 75.25% win- R+1
IL-13- Davis beat Callis 58.75- 41.25%- even PVI
IN-02- Walorski beat Bock 58.93- 38.31%- R+6
IA-01- Blum beat Murphy 51.23- 48.77%- D+5
IA-03- Young beat Appel 52.90- 42.33%- even PVI
IA-04- King beat Mowrer 61.73- 38.27- R+5
ME-02- Poliquin is leading Cain 46.72- 42.60% (60.33% counted)- D+2
MI-01- Benishek beat Cannon 52.07- 45.35%- R+5
MI-07- Walberg beat Byrnes 53.46- 41.16%- R+3
MI-08- Bishop beat Schertzing 54.79- 41.86%- R+2
MI-11- Trott beat McKenzie 56.06- 40.83%- R+4
MT-AL- Zinke beat Lewis 55.49- 40.36%- R+7
NV-03- Heck beat Bilbray 60.76- 36.12%- even PVI
NJ-02- LoBiondo beat Hughes 61.82- 36.93%- D+1
NJ-03- MacArthur beat Belgard 54.66- 43.63%- R+1
NM-02- Pearce beat Lara 64.46- 35.54%- R+5
NY-11- Grimm beat Recchia 55.35- 42.13%- R+2
NY-19- Gibson beat Eldridge 64.99- 35.01%- D+1
NY-21- Stefanik beat Woolf 55.17- 33.55%- even PVI
NY-23- Reed beat Robertson 62.55- 37.45%- R+3
NC-02- Ellmers beat Aiken 58.85- 41.15%- R+10
ND-AL- Cramer beat Sinner 55.61- 38.54%- R+10
OH-06- Johnson beat Garrison 58.34- 38.50%- R+8
PA-06- Costello beat Trivedi 56.23- 43.77%- R+2
PA-08- Fitzpatrick beat Strouse 61.91- 38.09%- R+1
VA-02- Rigell beat Patrick 48.90- 41.10%- R+2
VA-10- Comstock beat Foust 56.56- 40.40%- R+2
WV-01- McKinely beat Gainer 63.98- 36.02%- R+14
WV-02- Mooney beat Casey 47.06- 43.91- R+11
So, every single PVI neutral district with the exception of Israel's own (which, honor among thieves, the NRCC doesn't contest) and that of fellow Wall Street whore Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18, which was extremely close) is now in the hands of the Republicans. The Blue Dogs were effectively wiped out and this was a very bad cycle for the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. More analysis for the rest of the week.

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