Friday, October 27, 2006



The TV networks-- as well as the political parties-- are conspiring to make it look like the contest for control of Congress is close, even a cliff hanger. It isn't. An anti-Republican blow-out has been taking shape all year and a Democratic wave will sweep away dozens of rubber stamp Republican congressmen. A very serious scholarly survey by the Pew Research Center shows double-digit leads for Democrats across the board-- not razor tight margins that are easily manipulated to fudge cheating after people like Katherine Harris, Rove, Mehlman and Kenneth Blackwell have done their dirty, traitorous deeds, but double-digit leads... everywhere.

"An oversample of voters in 40 competitive districts  identified by a consensus of political analysts  shows that voting intentions in the battleground districts are about the same as they are in the 'safe' House districts. Among registered voters, the Democrats lead by 11 points in competitive districts (50%-39%) and by the same margin in safe districts (49%-38%)." Iraq is the dominant issue and even GOP voters "are now rendering more negative judgments about how things are going in Iraq."

And despite Rove's diktat to his troops to move the discussion away from Iraq and towards the Democrats' strongest issue-- the economy-- "the new poll finds no increase in public optimism about the nation's economy, despite gains in the stock market and lower gas prices. Just one-in-three Americans say the national economy is in excellent or good shape, while nearly twice as many (65%) view the economy as only fair or poor. Opinions about economic conditions are especially negative in the Midwest... The Democratic Party's advantage in handling most issues remains stable."

And if Diebold does what the Republicans pay them to do, people will look at numbers like these: "public impressions of the Democratic Party have improved since the summer. Currently, 53% express a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, up from 47% in July. Just 41% have a positive opinion of the Republican Party, which is virtually unchanged from April and July (40% on both occasions)."

The survey examines competitive districts in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Indiana, New York and Ohio. As a group these districts voted for Bush in 2004 but now nearly 60% of their residents disapprove of how he's handled his job. Bush does much worse, of course, in districts that didn't vote for him in 2004. But that's the point-- these are Republican districts and they have realized what a farce and a sham his entire Regime-run-amock has been. And about half the voters say that national issues, especially Iraq, matter more to their vote for Congress than do local issues.

Even in the newest Fox poll Democrats are overwhelmingly preferred. "Less than two weeks before Election Day, Democrats hold a double-digit lead over Republicans among likely voters in the Congressional election-- not surprising, as Democrats are seen as the party that can do a better job on almost all of the top issues facing the country today, according to a new FOX News poll." According to Fox, the double digit lead for Democratic candidates is because independent voters have massively turned against the Republicans and because Democrats are far more motivated to vote than Republicans are. The vicious, negative ads and fear and smear tactics that have worked so well for Republicans in the past are falling flat this year as a renewed sense of reality sweeps the country.

DWT will attempt district by district predictions next week but as of now, it is looking like a Democratic net gain of far over the 15 seats needed to sweep Hastert and the GOP leadership from control. At this point Democrats are far closer to taking 50 seats than 15 seats in the House. Tom Schaller has a powerful analysis in today's Baltimore Sun. "An electoral tide of sufficient magnitude next month would surely sweep out a few Southern Republicans. Former Tennessee football star Heath Shuler is a Democrat leading his race in western North Carolina. The Democrats also hope to pick up the seats in Florida and Texas vacated, respectively, by disgraced Mark Foley and deposed Minority Leader Tom DeLay. But most Democratic victories will be won north of the Mason-Dixon Line or west of the Mississippi River. In fact, about three-quarters of the Republican-held seats in jeopardy are located in what I call the "4D rectangle" of states formed by connecting Dover, N.H.; Dover, Del.; Des Moines, Iowa; and Duluth, Minn. Five states within this rectangle have three or more Republicans in jeopardy: Connecticut, Indiana, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Democratic candidates in Iowa, Illinois, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are also competitive. Meanwhile, Republicans are even struggling to hold seats in some distinctly red portions of the country, including eastern Washington, western Idaho, central New Mexico, southeastern Arizona and Wyoming." Today's NPR story about the collapse of the Republican Party as a genuinely viable entity in much of rural America should put the finishing touches on any hope Republicans have of maintaining their power... at least in a relatively fair election.


At 4:37 PM, Blogger Scott said...

I have been wondering how they are going to steal elections where the polling is so against them nationally and in individual races.

I figure they are just going to do it on the because of the same principle Hitler used "the bigger the lie the more people believe it".


Post a Comment

<< Home