Checking In On Sean Eldridge's Campaign In Upstate New York… Oy

This morning Alex Isenstadt did a provocatively titled article for Politico, The Worst Campaigns of 2014. How hard is it to point to Eric Canter's loss and laugh your ass off now? Or Pat Roberts'? Or Chris McDaniels'? I'm looking for some Beltway pundits who wrote that Cantor was in trouble before Dave Brat popped out of the fascist swamp to beat the Majority Leader back home. More interesting that these obvious banner races, however, is Isenstadt's inclusion of poor (which) Sean Eldridge. It's been clear since last spring, when Isenstadt wrote his classic Chasing Sean Eldridge piece that he had a special animus for the self-entitled, "brazen" little rich kid trying to buy himself a House seat in Upstate New York.

There are worse run campaigns than Sean's around the country-- and, of course, Isenstadt refrains from delving into the toxicity of the Sean Eldridge/Steve Israel relationship that makes this race nationally interesting-- but there is Eldridge's shattered and failed campaign right up there with Eric Cantor's and Chris McDaniels'. It's really more gratuitous and mean than newsworthy:

Eldridge’s 2014 campaign may be the most confounding of them all. A venture capitalist married to Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes, the 28-year-old Eldridge initially looked well positioned to make a serious play for an upstate New York congressional seat.

Instead, it’s been one problem after the next. He’s been widely characterized as a carpetbagger. He split with his campaign manager over the summer. He’s faced endless questions about his qualifications, and he’s had a poor relationship with the news media.

For all the speculation that Eldridge would dump big bucks into the race, it hasn’t happened. Through the end of June, he’d raised only a little more than the Republican incumbent, Rep. Chris Gibson. And the money he has raised hasn’t always been put to good use: In one of Eldridge’s first TV ads, he awkwardly referred to himself in the third person.

One recent poll showed Eldridge losing by 24 points.

Despite this being a blue district (PVI is D+1) that Obama won both times-- 53-45% in 2008 and 52-46% in 2012-- Eldridge has virtually no shot whatsoever. Having completely blown the advantage PPP found in an early survey of the district (above) -- a 48-42% Democratic advantage-- the $1,340,000 check Eldridge wrote to his campaign and the $962,959 he's already spent, has brought him backwards, not forwards towards the goal of beating the GOP's one actual moderate, backbencher Chris Gibson.

Last cycle, Gibson beat Democrat Julian Schreibman 150,245 (53%) to 134,295 (47%), a close call. This cycle, Steve Israel decided to give the nomination to the implausible Eldridge, who didn't live in the district, for one reason: he's rich and he and his husband donate a lot to the DCCC. Israel didn't look for a good candidate, just one with money; typical Israel; typical DCCC. Now Eldridge, who has followed the DCCC's pathetic mystery meat line to a "t," won't come anywhere near Schreibman's 47% performance. Local politicos say it would be a miracle if Eldridge even cracks 40% in November and that he (and the DCCC) have set back the Democrats' ability to take back the district by a cycle or two.

Eldridge is a smart kid and he knows what he's fighting for now. He wants to 2016 nomination. With Hillary Clinton on the top of the ticket, NY-19 will be poised for a blue wave. Eldridge wants to be swept into Congress with that wave. But Israel won't be Fed-Exing his staff third-rate bagels and cream cheese next cycle. Israel will be gone from the DCCC. And a rich loser who can't even hit 40% in a blue district isn't going to be too appealing to a new DCCC chairman serious about taking back the House in 2016. No idea why Isenstadt didn't mention any of that in his Politico piece this morning. Oh, right… Politico is never mean to Steve Israel, only his hapless, defenseless recruits.

Meanwhile, someone close to the disintegrating Eldridge campaign told us that no one in the campaign talks to anyone in the campaign anymore and that Eldridge is nowhere to be seen. Maybe he's out eating bagels and cream cheese with Israel and Wasserman Schultz.

What's Next For The Ambitious Young Guy Who Ran The Worst Congressional Race Of 2014?

As far as we know, so far Sean Eldridge spent $4,659,027 in his failed NY-19 congressional run ($2,840,000 of which was from his personal wealth). His opponent, Chris Gibson, who spent $1,798,884, was an early DCCC target because the district has a PVI of D+1 and because Obama won the district twice, 175,800 (53%) to 150,359 (45%) against McCain and 157,279 (52%) to 138,384 (46%) against Romney. Problem though, is that while Obama was racking up an almost 20,000 vote margin in 2012, Gibson beat the DCCC's Red-to-Blue candidate, Julian Schreibman, by over 15,000 votes. That same Obama-electorate gave Gibson a 150,245 (53%) to 134,295 (47%) win. Still, the Beltway rule of thumb is that if an incumbent loses with less than 55% of the vote, they are a likely target the following year).

Schriebman's campaign had spent $1,331,223 to Gibson's $2,153,689-- and Democratic outside groups, primarily the DCCC and their House Majority PAC, spent $2,024,284 attacking Gibson while Republican outside groups spent $1,778,882 attacking Schreibman. This time, by recruiting a multimillionaire, the DCCC knew they wouldn't have to spend money in NY-19. They got poor naive Eldridge to hire all their crooked, high-priced consultants and it didn't cost them a nickel. Republican outside groups smeared Eldridge mercilessly (to the tune of $1,383,794), from the suburbs of Troy and Albany down the Hudson through Saugerties, Woodstock, Kingston, Rhinebeck and New Paltz to just before Poughkeepsie and west into the Catskills to Ellenville, Fallsburg, Monticello and up to Oneonta and Cooperstown. They-- the NRCC, Chamber of Commerce, the NRA and even the Environmental Defense Fund-- spent another $726,943 on ads bolstering Gibson.

The result was catastrophic for Eldridge, a Steve Israel mystery meat candidate who's campaign was off to a terrible start and went straight downhill from there. In the end, Sean was played for a fool by the DCCC. He spent a fortune on their worthless consultants and wound up with far fewer votes than Schreibman had two years earlier-- in fact less than half the voter Schreibman got and far less support among Democrats:

• Chris Gibson- 124,428 (64.99%)
• Sean Eldridge- 67,024 (35.01%)

Eldridge, who lives in Lower Manhattan but bought a $2 million house in Ulster County to make a run in the rural district somewhat more plausible, hopes to try again in 2016 when an extremely popular Hillary Clinton is on the top of the ticket. But someone who fared so poorly? Really? Nonpartisan polling a week before the election showed that even some Democrats in the district didn't much like him-- which was borne out on election day.

A week before Election Day, Republican Representative Chris Gibson continues to hold a commanding lead over Democrat Sean Eldridge. Gibson holds a 58-35 percent lead, virtually unchanged from his 57-33 percent lead seven weeks ago, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today.  By a 60-25 percent margin, voters have a favorable view of Gibson, whereas Eldridge divides voters, with 33 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably.

“Gibson heads into the final week of the campaign largely unscathed and with a commanding 23-point lead over Eldridge,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Over the last seven weeks, the Eldridge campaign has gained little or no traction with practically any constituency.

“Gibson has overwhelming support from 86 percent of Republicans, strong support from 60 percent of independents, and even has the support of more than one-quarter of Democrats, all virtually the same as the previous Time Warner Cable News/Siena poll,” Greenberg said. “He maintains a 13-point lead in the Ulster/Dutchess portion of the district and better than two-to-one leads in the other regions. He has a dominating 42-pont lead with men and leads among women by nine points. He leads by more than 20 points with voters 55 and older and has an even larger lead with voters younger than 55,” Greenberg said.

“As mailboxes across the 19th C.D. have been stuffed with literature promoting and attacking each candidate, and as airways have been flooded with both warm and fuzzy commercials and attack ads, Eldridge has become known to more voters. Unfortunately for him, there are as many voters that view him unfavorably as view him favorably,” Greenberg said.  “Gibson, who was well known throughout the district at the beginning of the campaign, continues to hold a better than two-to-one favorability rating.

“While Eldridge is viewed strongly favorably by Democrats and strongly unfavorably by Republicans, Gibson is viewed overwhelmingly favorably by Republicans and independents, even as Democrats are closely divided on their view of Gibson,” Greenberg said.

Although Steve Israel screwed him in the end and took him off the Red-to-Blue list, compare Eldridge's final results with those of Israel's final triaged dozen candidates:

• Sean Eldridge (NY-19)- 35.01%
• Gwen Graham (FL-02)- 50.44%
• Staci Appel (IA-03)- 42.33%
• Kathleen Rice (NY-04), who fit no crier of "Red to Blue"- 52.71%
• Domenic Recchia (NY-11)- 42.13%
• James Lee Witt (AR-04)- 42.59%
• Pete Aguilar (CA-31)- 51.36%
• Jim Mowrer (IA-04)- 38.27%
• Brad Ashford (NE-2)- 48.64%
• Manan Trivedi (PA-06)- 43.77%
• Nick Casey (WV-02)- 43.88%
• Emily Cain (ME-02), who fit no crier of "Red to Blue"- 41.82%
• Seth Moulton (MA-06), who fit no crier of "Red to Blue"- 54.65%

That's right, even in a D+1 district, Eldridge wound up with the lowest percentage, even measured against candidates who ran in R+15 (Witt) and R+11 (Casey) districts! It was a bad year for Democrats-- but not as bad as it was for Sean Eldridge. I'm hearing EMILY's List is already recruiting a candidate to beat Eldridge in the 2016 primary if he tries to run again. Maybe he can buy a house in the Hamptons next so he can take on far right freshman Republican Lee Zeldin, the only non-Christian in the next GOP House caucus-- and an easier race for Eldridge, who will certainly fit in better than he did in the Catskills. He might even seem authentic in that district. And it's closer to Manhattan.

Sean Eldridge Taking Upstate New York By Storm?

Sean at home in his $5 million dollar Soho loft

-by Concerned Monticello Democrat

As far as campaign budgets go, Sean Eldridge has more money than God. Or, to be more precise, $3,069,179 raised so far ($1,340,000 from his own bank account); $962,959 already spent, albeit mostly wasted on over-priced consultants taking him for a ride; and $2,106,220 cash-on-hand, all as of the June 30 filing deadline. It could easily double as campaign professionals (hustlers) persuade Sean to pay no attention to the polls that show him losing by over 20 points.

This self-funding multimillionaire, married to lucky Facebook billionaire Chris Hughes, has the resources to employ nearly the entire Hudson Valley with campaign jobs-- and every unemployed comedian in the Catskills to boot. Let’s take a quick geographical tour of the district to see if there would be individuals who could benefit from such jobs.

This upstate New York District has some of the poorest areas of the region. The Poughkeepsie and Albany/Troy areas plus Ulster County and Oneonta (home to most of the Democratic base) are filled with unemployed residents and struggling students who would love nothing more than a paid canvassing position in a giant, robust Sean Eldridge field campaign.

I am willing to bet Sean Eldridge could spend a fraction of his fortune building a paid canvass that would inspire the entire region and leave voters with the feeling that Sean is a truly philanthropic member of their community who does care about something in New York State beyond Soho-- and something beyond a career move to Congress.

Not to mention, it would set Sean up pretty well for a potential 2016 primary by giving him access to political machinery necessary in a Democratic primary.

But, as my source at the DCCC willingly told me, Sean wants nothing to do with such a field program. Sean doesn’t want to employ poor minorities in his campaign, but rather, he wants to spend millions in paid advertising that lines pockets of talentless consultants who he likes partying with when he and young Chris fly into town (Washington, DC) with a $10 million dollar check for the DNC. Paid field operations may win elections for serious candidates but they are difficult, tedious and, worst of all, they don't yield any fat commissions for the Beltway power brokers and consultants to way paid media buys do.

Sean Eldridge is this year's ultimate rich dilettante in his quest for Congress. He believes that money should be spent lining his friends’ pockets, while leaving his district’s poorest residents starving and unemployed. Not a good get-out-the-vote strategy, at least not for a Democrat.

Sean Eldridge believes that money will buy him a seat in Congress. He believes that he can spend millions to dupe the residents of New York 19 with glossy mailers, and TV and digital ads just like Steve Israel was able to dupe him into thinking he was the next Barack Obama by sending his staff weekly bagels and cream cheese via Federal Express. I hope he didn't soil his Gucci sweater vest with cream cheese and chives.

Shame on you, Sean Eldridge. You know nothing about how to win a political campaign and you're wasting a good opportunity Democrats have in a swing district Obama won twice. You waste your money, and you leave the most needy in the district hungry and unemployed.

Go back to your 4,000 square foot loft on Crosby Street with it's 12-foot high ceilings and spend your loot on nicer things than polling and TV ads. Go to the Brunello Cucinelli store, or Ascot Chang, and buy some more nice shoes and shirts.

If you're not going to help Upstate New York’s poor communities stay in Soho and Tribeca with your millionaire pals. Your Prada and Tom Ford style/mindset will ruin your potential political career and render you unelectable anywhere.

You are the ultimate loser, a perfect Steve Israel recruit. Speaking of which... is it really such a good idea for the DCCC ads to keep putting Gibson down because he supports tax breaks for millionaires? Generically, it isn't a bad line of attack, but when most NY-19 voters hear the word "millionaire," they probably immediately think of Sean!

Like Ted Cruz, Sean Eldridge Was Born In Canada And Like Cruz He Thinks He Can Be President

The first big New York Times coverage of Sean Eldridge's campaign for the Republican-held blue seat in the upper Hudson Valley/Catskills (NY-19) killed his race among actual progressives. This sentence went over especially badly for many: "Mr. Eldridge grew up in a middle-class community in Ohio, where both of his parents were doctors; they say he has a genuine understanding of people of modest means." Where I was from the kids with even just one parent who was a doctor were the richest members of the community-- not the ones who were of modest means. Eldridge's expensive, blue chip campaign is widely recognized as the worst-run, most embarrassing congressional campaign of 2014. He spent $6,333,592, more than double what he Republican opponent spent, and of that $4,255,000 (66%) was from his own bank account. (He spent an astounding $84.51 per vote he wound up with, nearly 4 times what his opponent spent.) Most of the rest came from his wealthy pals. Not much came from anyone of modest means.

He was recruited by Steve Israel for one reason-- the ability to self-fund, despite an obvious inability to win one of the most winnable seats the Republicans held. And Israel was happy to see Eldridge hire all the hack consultants that make the DCCC world spin round and round. One of Alex Isenstadt's first campaign reports on the 19th mentioned that Sean had turned the effort into a multimillion-dollar start-up.

It has unfolded in rapid-fire sequence. After Eldridge decided he wanted to run for office, he and Hughes in 2011 bought the first of two luxurious homes in the Hudson Valley region. Soon after, Eldridge set up a venture capital firm, Hudson River Ventures, that has provided millions in loans and equity lines to local companies. And now the first-time candidate, who’s running his first business, is touting the jobs he’s created in the blue-collar district.

“I know firsthand what it takes to support small businesses and create good jobs,” reads one pamphlet his campaign is plastering throughout the area.

...It’s difficult to size up the person behind the polished image Eldridge and his campaign are projecting to voters. He’s been running for more than half a year but remains mostly an enigma.

Congressional challengers typically seek maximum media exposure; Eldridge allows few chance encounters with the media. His campaign frequently posts pictures on his Facebook page of the candidate out and about in the district, but local reporters say they’re usually not made aware of his public schedule ahead of time. He declined to be interviewed by Politico, and the door to his campaign headquarters in Kingston was locked on a recent visit. No one answered a call on an intercom.

...Eldridge employs a team of prominent political consultants-- including media firm SKDKnickerbocker, polling outfit Global Strategy Group and veteran party operative Anne Lewis-- who carefully tend to his image. Through the end of last year [2013], he paid the three entities a total of $241,000, campaign records show.

Sean's campaign was entirely consultant dominated and they made a fortune off his grotesque loss. One, Jeff Pollock of Global Strategy Group, was used to track down the "spy" Sean insisted DWT had inside his campaign (who told us about the weekly bagels and lox deliveries from Steve Israel) by investigating Facebook patterns, although Sean confirmed the poor innocent suspect by seizing his cell phone and finding a friend of DWT on the call list! And Sean thinks-- or thought-- he was on a path to the presidency (of the United States); really. With all that money he was spending on consultants, he paid one of them to map out a long-term strategy to get him into the White House. Jamie Kirchick: "Chris Hughes and Sean Eldridge have always been entitled brats. And now the media has finally noticed."

In just the past two months, one half of this pair managed to single-handedly destroy a storied journalistic institution, while the other suffered a crushing electoral defeat in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Last week, the 31-year-old Hughes forced the resignations of both the editor and literary editor of the New Republic, whose 100th anniversary he presided over last month at a star-studded gala in Washington, D.C.

In protest of the magazine’s newly ensconced CEO’s plan to transform TNR into a “vertically integrated digital media company,” the majority of the magazine’s senior and contributing editors resigned.

Weeks before the implosion at TNR, 28-year-old Eldridge lost his congressional bid by a stunning 30 points, despite having outspent his opponent nearly 3-to-1 in a district President Obama won by 6 percentage points. The couple had purchased a $2 million home in the district expressly so that Eldridge could run there, their purchase of a $5 million mansion in the adjoining 18th having come to naught after that seat was won by another gay Democrat in 2012.

...A New York Times profile, meanwhile, set the scene at a Paris Review fundraiser hosted by the couple at Cipriani (the 42nd Street location, not the Wall Street one, where they celebrated their wedding with 400 of their closest friends). In it, a series of Manhattan literary and media bigwigs prostrated themselves before the two like nobles at a royal court.

“They are very generous with their money and time,” Richard Socarides, a former Clinton administration staffer and television pundit prattled. “They are young, rich, smart, and good-looking. It’s a pretty powerful combination.”

Powerful indeed. At their 4,000-square-foot, $5 million SoHo loft, Hughes and Eldridge hosted fundraisers for Nancy Pelosi and Andrew Cuomo, and raised money for worthy causes like gay marriage. All the while they racked up favorable coverage in the mainstream press, and even more sycophantic mentions in the gay press. In 2011, Hughes and Eldridge graced the cover of The Advocate’s “40 under 40” issue, and the following year Hughes came in at No. 28 on OUT’s “Power List.” Nearly every profile remarked upon the young men’s precocity. They possessed “wisdom beyond their years,” observed The Advocate. “The youngest old man any of us knows,” an unnamed friend of Atlantic Publisher David Bradley said of Hughes.

Earlier this year, former TNR staffer and Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank sent Hughes a fawning email in which he praised the young owner for “doing the Lord’s work” in purchasing the perpetually money-losing magazine, calling him a “21st-century Walter Lippman.”

...Eldridge’s path to fame is even more accidental. In 2010, he dropped out of law school to take up a job as communications director for a gay-rights organization, an appointment soon followed by his husband’s donation of a quarter-million dollars to the group. Nine months after Hughes told New York magazine, “He’s 26. He’s going to do all kinds of things in politics, but I don’t think there’s any rush,” to run for office, Eldridge announced his congressional candidacy.

Even by the already money-drenched standards of American politics, the Eldridge campaign was a jaw-dropping spectacle to behold. In preparation for a campaign, Eldridge established Hudson River Ventures, essentially a vote-buying apparatus masquerading as an economic-development project, to win over small-business owners and their employees. He then traipsed around the district dispensing “investments” ranging from $50,000 to $500,000 to local companies. The couple then bought a property in the town of Shokan, in New York’s 19th District, just months after Eldridge told the Times that it was their original mansion, in the 18th, where “we put down roots, where we want to have a family.”

Eldridge retained SKDKnickerbocker, a heavy-hitting Democratic political consulting firm, which also happened to be doing public-relations work for his investment fund. “Candidates who employ people in the districts they’re running in enjoy some advantages. What’s so unusual about this situation is that he’s being so transparent about it,” Paul Herrnson, executive director of the University of Connecticut’s Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, told Politico. Lacking any sense of irony, Eldridge made campaign-finance reform a signature plank.

To no one’s surprise except, perhaps, the pampered couple, Eldridge lost the race to the Republican incumbent 65 percent to 35 percent. In light of the massive amounts of money Hughes dumped into the race, it was one of the most humiliating defeats in the last election cycle. But Eldridge’s political ambition is not likely to be satiated. Several years ago, before he ever announced his candidacy, a source close to Eldridge told me that he had SKDKnickerbocker draw up a plan for him to become the first openly gay president of the United States (Eldridge was born in Canada and until recently held both Canadian and Israeli citizenship, which would make it difficult to overcome the Constitution’s natural-born citizenship clause). Expect the couple to find another mansion in a safe Democratic district where an aging representative is expected to retire.

One suspects that had this couple been heterosexual and conservative, the initial media attention would not have been quite so toadying. We would have no doubt been treated to endless stories about how a “rapacious” “right-wing” millionaire, who had done nothing to earn his fortune, set out to destroy one of liberalism’s great institutions all the while enabling his power-mad spouse to “buy” a seat in Congress. But everything about the Hughes-Eldridge pairing militated against such a portrayal. The prospect of a fresh-faced, conventionally liberal, gay couple hit every media sweet spot.

Hughes and Eldridge are not “role models for a future generation of… gay people,” as The Advocate absurdly stated. They are little more than entitled brats who, like most fabulously wealthy arrivistes who attain their fortunes through sheer luck rather than hard work, are used to getting everything they want, when they want it, and throw temper tantrums when they don’t.

In their elitism and sense of entitlement, they represent much of what liberals are supposed to despise. Most in the media and gay community were perfectly willing to ignore this imposture when the couple was throwing their money at the right causes and dispensing jobs to their journalist and political consultant friends. Hughes and Eldridge were beneficiaries of a corrupt and compliant media and political establishment that grasped at their filthy lucre. Only now that the fairy tale has come crashing down-- a magazine destroyed, a devastating political loss suffered-- is the herd willing to admit the obvious.

Will Gay Democrat Sean Eldridge Be Any Better In Congress Than Gay Democrat Next Door, Sean Patrick Maloney?

Sean's on the left-- at least in the photo

We looked at New York New Dem Sean Patrick Maloney's putrid record as a freshman a couple months ago; it hasn't improved. As of this morning he's tied with corrupt Texas Blue Dog and warmonger Henry Cuellar as the 200th "best" voter in Congress. His ProgressivePunch crucial vote score (32.91) was earned by backing Boehner's and Cantor's toxic agenda more than any Democratic freshman and more than any Democrats other than Bill Owens (New Dem-NY), Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT) and John Barrow (New Dem/Blue Dog-GA). But Maloney is good on gay issues. In fact, Maloney is gay-- a very, very right-wing gay, imbued with an ideology based on selfishness, greed and egoism. And he has a lovely family. He slipped into Congress last year by narrowly beating pathetic Republican incumbent Nan Hayworth in NY-18, winning in Orange, Putnam and Westchester counties and only losing Dutchess County. He spent $2,246,008 and the DCCC ponied up another $1,108,154.

Chris Gibson is the moderate Republican in the district next door, NY-19. He was able to narrowly stave off a strong challenge by Democrat Julian Schreibman (who won only 2 of the district's 11 counties, Ulster and Sullivan). Both NY-18 and NY-19 are swing districts. NY-18 is one of the only districts in the country with an exactly even PVI score. McCain and Romney each took only 47% of the votes when Obama beat them there. NY-19 has a PVI of D+1 and Obama did even better there-- leaving McCain 45% and Romney 46%. NY-19 looks ripe for a takeover by the Democrats next year... on paper.

Their candidate is Sean Eldridge a rich and ambitious technology executive, who was profiled in the NY Times this week in a way that probably won't help much: Young, Rich and Relocating Yet Again in Hunt for Political Office. They left out "gay" and "Facebook" in the headline. But only in the headline.

This is the story of how one young couple came to the Hudson Valley with a fortune and big political dreams.

Two years ago, Sean Eldridge and his husband, the Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes, bought a $5 million estate in Garrison, about 50 miles north of New York City. It offered 80 acres of rolling fields and a farmhouse once owned by a Vanderbilt. It would also allow Mr. Eldridge, 26, to run for the local Congressional seat if he chose to.

But that seat appeared unattainable, and soon the couple’s gaze shifted north, to the neighboring district on the other side of the Hudson River. In January, they bought a $2 million modern home here overlooking a reservoir, laying the groundwork for Mr. Eldridge’s campaign for their new local Congressional seat, New York’s 19th.

Word of Mr. Eldridge’s political plans has delighted the friends who make up his social circle: Donors to his exploratory committee include George Soros, the billionaire financier, and Sean Parker, the tech entrepreneur behind Napster and Spotify.

But his ambitions have puzzled some residents among the farmers, mill workers and small-business owners who populate this district, which rises through the Catskills and rolls north through cornfields and apple orchards to the Vermont border.

Amy Shields, a mother of three children who lives a few miles from Mr. Eldridge, cannot get over the fact that he has just moved into town and is already planning a run for Congress.

“It’s a little bit presumptuous,” Ms. Shields said. “In a community like this you like to know who your neighbors are. Having ties to your neighbors is important. How can he expect to represent people he doesn’t know?”

Mr. Eldridge and Mr. Hughes are among the most politically active of a new generation of entrepreneurs who gained their fortunes in Silicon Valley. Mr. Hughes, who left Facebook with about $500 million, oversaw online organizing for President Obama’s 2008 campaign and has since bought the New Republic. The two men helped raise tens of thousands of dollars for Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and his push for same-sex marriage.

But Congressional campaigns, especially in upstate New York, can be very personal contests, built on longstanding relationships and local perceptions. And it may be hard to dislodge the incumbent, Representative Chris Gibson, a well-liked Republican and veteran of the Iraq war who lives in a modest home around the corner from where he grew up.

...Mr. Eldridge’s supporters note that for all the trappings of wealth he now possesses, Mr. Eldridge grew up in a middle-class community in Ohio, where both of his parents were doctors; they say he has a genuine understanding of people of modest means.

And while the 19th District has vast stretches of rural, conservative communities, it is also home to more Democratic-leaning places, like New Paltz and Monticello, that could give his candidacy a lift.

“He clearly has a bright future,” said Mike Hein, a Democrat who is the Ulster County executive.

Still, as Mr. Eldridge has sought to ingratiate himself with local residents, some awkward moments have resulted.

He raised an impressive $300,000 in the first three months of this year, but only a small fraction of the donations came from individuals in the district. And Mr. Eldridge’s voter registration, which he applied for in January, was placed on the inactive list after a confirmation postcard sent to his new home was returned to the local board of elections marked: “Return to sender. No mail receptacle.” His registration has since been reactivated.

A few months ago, he quietly moved an investment firm he owns to the small city of Kingston, and, with the help of SKDKnickerbocker, a public relations agency based in Manhattan, has begun directing attention to his interest in making investments in local businesses.

Since late last year, the firm has provided at least $800,000 in loans to businesses in the district, including Bread Alone bakery and Prohibition Distillery. And Mr. Eldridge has dug into his own pocket, donating $250,000 to a $1 million effort in the district to build a 3-D printing technology center at SUNY New Paltz.

...Back in New York City, Mr. Eldridge has little need for introductions. The 4,000-square-foot loft he and Mr. Hughes own has become a hub of fund-raising receptions attended by major Democrats like Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand of New York and Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House minority leader. For the White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington in April, Mr. Eldridge and Mr. Hughes were A-list invitees, appearing at the Vanity Fair-Bloomberg party at the French ambassador’s residence, which also drew Barbra Streisand.

Mr. Eldridge and Mr. Hughes are part of the flock of New York City residents who have bought second homes in the Hudson Valley in recent years, then involved themselves in local politics. After the couple bought their first upstate estate, which they still own, Mr. Eldridge briefly entertained a run against the local Republican representative at the time, Nan Hayworth, according to published reports and two people close to him. (An aide to Mr. Eldridge noted he never took any formal steps to establish a candidacy.) And Sean Patrick Maloney, another newcomer with a similar profile-- a gay Democrat from downstate-- emerged as the party’s candidate and went on to defeat Ms. Hayworth.

My only interest in Eldridge is his political philosophy. Someone that wealthy-- who thinks he understands people of modest means because both his parents were "merely" doctors-- is more likely than not to be a conservative scumbag when it comes to issues of economic justice-- like Maloney next door has proven to be. Eldridge and his husband have contributed quite a bit of money to Maloney's campaign so presumably they approve of his reactionary-- or cowardly-- agenda. I sent him a message asking if he'd like to have a talk. Five months have gone by and he hasn't responded. He has a Facebook page but I haven't been able to find a campaign website. A few days ago I sent him a message through Facebook. I wonder if that'll work.

Still WAY Too Many Multimillionaires In Congress For A Functioning Democracy

This week I had dinner with Eloise Reyes, the grassroots progressive running in the CA-31 jungle primary against two conservatives: corrupt GOP incumbent Gary Miller and the DCCC recruit who lost to Miller last year, Pete Aguilar. I stay away from DC with a vengeance so I don't go out to meals with many politicians. But I talk to them on the phone all day-- usually not Republicans though. With just a few exceptions, Republicans won't talk with me. Democrats do, however, even Democrats I've been unkind to here at DWT, like Blue Dog John Barrow (GA), New Dem Anne Kuster (NH) and leader-of-the-pack Steny Hoyer (MD)-- whose p.r. person gave as a condition of the interview that I not call him a "hack" or a "whore" on the phone.

One Democrat who has absolutely not talked to me-- and I've been trying-- is the DCCC's NY-19 candidate against Chris Gibson, Sean Eldridge. Today, Steve Israel added him to the DCCC's Jumpstart program. He's gay and cute and married and the gay media is all excited about him. Maybe they know something more than I do about his politics. But I do know that gay candidates-- mostly on non-LGBT issues-- are all over the place politically. You'll get solid progressives like Mark Takano (D-CA), Mark Pocan (D-WI) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), middle-of-the-roaders like Jared Polis (D-CO) and Cory Booker (D-NJ), outright conservatives like Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Aaron Schock (R-IL) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and raging reactionaries and bizarre extremists like Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and Trent Franks (R-AZ). This month a national gay magazine, Out, takes a few paragraphs away from their all-advertising format for an interesting, if somewhat gratuitous, piece by Ilya Marritz comparing Eldridge to Gore Vidal. Marritz's most relevant remark is in the first sentence-- and it has nothing to do with Gore Vidal per se. Sean Eldridge isn't going to lose because he's gay. He's going to lose because he's a millionaire outsider trying to buy himself a random congressional district. Last cycle he wanted the seat Sean Patrick Maloney ran in but was talked out of it. So he bought another mansion up the road in the next district and decided to run there instead. Steve Israel is always happy to welcome a self-funding multimillionaire to the DCCC.

Gore Vidal suffered vicious press when he ran for Congress in 1960. The gay man now running for the same district has other reasons to worry.

What the hell is a fauteuil?

“Gore Vidal, Democratic candidate for Representative in the Twenty-ninth Congressional District, sprawled barefooted in a gilded fauteuil of his luxurious octagonal Empire study as he considered the question whether he would win the election.”

This is not overwritten fan fiction about a dead novelist. It’s the opener to an article published in the New York Times in September 1960. Vidal, already a successful playwright and novelist at 34, was indeed running for Congress.

Unable to use the word gay (the Times only began allowing it in 1987), and unwilling to write homosexual, the reporter resorts to rich innuendo; readers are told that Vidal is a bachelor living in “lonely splendor in an 1820 Greek Revival mansion on the edge of the Hudson River.” (Actually, Vidal’s lover, Howard Austen, was living there too). The reporter watches as Vidal “lets his cocker spaniel lick the Chateau Yquem [sic] off his fingers.”

“I don’t drink Château d’Yquem,” Vidal shot back, decades later, in his memoir, Palimpsest, still sore at the newspaper he believed was out to get him.

Fast-forward 53 years. Another well-connected young gay guy with an impressive house has his eye on Congress. The district lines roughly correspond to what they were when Vidal sought a seat: New York’s Hudson Valley and the Catskill mountains.

His name is Sean Eldridge, he is 27, and he is married to Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes. Their joint fortune is estimated at between a half-billion and a billion dollars.

In a photo that appeared in The New York Times this summer, Eldridge wears a serious expression and his dark hair is neatly trimmed; blazer, no tie, husband beside him looking equally scrubbed in a black V-neck. What appears to be the horn of a phonograph hovers behind Hughes’s shoulder, gently confirming the old saw that gays love antiquing.

There is no innuendo in the Times’s coverage this time, but there are plenty of touchy questions: Will voters in a largely rural district get comfortable with a vision of squeaky-clean domesticity that just happens to be gay and fabulously wealthy? And how established in a place do you need to be in order to represent it in Congress?

Eldridge and Hughes have lived in the district for less than a year. When their $5 million mansion turned out to lie outside the district where Eldridge thought he had the best chance, they simply bought another house within the lines, for $2 million, and called it home. (They also have homes in Manhattan and D.C.) “It’s a little bit presumptuous,” one of Eldridge’s new neighbors tells the Times. “In a community like this, you like to know who your neighbors are. How can he expect to represent people he doesn’t know?”

Like Vidal, Eldridge is challenging an incumbent with deep roots in the district.

And, sensing an opportunity, the Republicans have mobilized. They’ve set up a deceptive “Sean Eldridge for Congress 2014” website that includes photos of Eldridge with Nancy Pelosi, several references to Eldridge’s prowess as a political fundraiser, and a generous sprinkling of words like elitist. Gay is nowhere to be found, though.

In short, Eldridge probably should worry more about being called “carpetbagger” than “queer.”

For Vidal, defeat in the 1960 election became a point of pride. For years afterward, his author bio included this defiant line: “Although he lost, he ran better in the traditionally Republican stronghold than any Democrat since 1910.”

Did his sexual orientation play a role?

Reporters in 1960 certainly knew Vidal had published The City and the Pillar, a coming-of-age story involving two male lovers. But pre-Stonewall, there was a cloak of invisibility around Vidal’s sexual tastes. Journalists, Vidal wrote, “did not realize that their sort of gossip was almost impossible to transmit to the public in those days.”

Can Eldridge, a former political director of Freedom to Marry, do better? In August, his campaign reportedly paid a focus group to watch some possible lines of attack against the incumbent. The group was also shown a dull video about high-tech manufacturing in the Hudson Valley, in which Eldridge appears, looking very much like the young president of the local chamber of commerce. He’s also invested in bakeries and breweries-- the kind of feel-good businesses that make good photo ops.

In 1960, Vidal didn’t bother trying for any effect other than artsy, opinionated wunderkind. His play The Best Man was a hit on Broadway. He argued against war, and for more social spending, and admitted his candidacy was a long shot.

He told the Times, “If this is subversive, all right, I am out to subvert a society that bores and appalls me.”

A fauteuil, by the way, is an armchair. I Googled it.

As I explained last summer when Eldridge was making believe he hadn't made up his mind about running yet, "My only interest in Eldridge is his political philosophy. Someone that wealthy-- who thinks he understands people of modest means because both his parents were "merely" doctors-- is more likely than not to vote with conservative scumbags when it comes to issues of economic justice-- like Maloney next door routinely does. Eldridge and his husband have contributed quite a bit of money to Maloney's campaign so presumably they approve of his reactionary-- or cowardly-- agenda. I sent him a message asking if he'd like to have a talk. Five Eight months have gone by and he hasn't responded." He has a Facebook page and I sent him a message through Facebook and another through Twitter. I wonder if that'll work."

And, yeah, there are already way too many millionaires in Congress. Maybe there should only be one or two instead of over two hundred and then Congress would be a little more in touch with the reality of the people they're supposed to be representing. The tragedy here is that NY-19 (which has a PVI of D+1 and which Obama won handily in both 2008 and 2012) is ripe to replace their GOP incumbent with a Democrat. Polling shows that if the election were held today, a generic Democrat would beat Gibson 44-43 and that when voters are made aware that Gibson voted with Cruz and the Tortilla Coast Suicide Caucus to shut down the government, his Democratic opponent pulls further ahead-- 48-42%. The DCCC will blow that advantage by pushing the multimillionaire outsider who lives in Manhattan instead of in his new mansion.

All Is Not Lost For Sean Eldridge… He Has A 1% Chance To Win

Chuck and Sean-- haimish?

Monday the New York State AFL-CIO rolled out its congressional endorsements, It endorsed all the Democrats-- almost. Steve Israel's DCCC failed to recruit candidates against Chris Collins (in Kathy Hochul's old suburban Buffalo district), Richard Hanna in the swing district he took from Michael Acuri in 2010, and, of course, against Israel's crony Peter King on Long Island. The AFL-CIO ignored Democrats Pat Maher in the Long Island district, ignored Jim O'Connell's race against Collins and actually endorsed Hanna where no Democrat or WFP candidate is even running. The AFL-CIO did endorse every other Democratic challenger in the state-- except multimillionaire Sean Eldridge, who's running against the House's only real moderate Republican, Chris Gibson (NY-19). So, endorsements for vile corporatists Kathleen Rice (NY-04) and Domenic Recchia (NY-11), for Aaron Woolf (NY-21) and Martha Robertson (NY-23) but nothing for Eldridge. Looks like AFL-CIO endorsements-- unlike DCCC backing-- aren't for sale.

It could have been worse. The New York State United Teachers (NYSUT), which refused to endorse Andrew Cuomo, not only didn't endorse Eldridge… they endorsed Gibson! And on top of that, the latest polling shows Eldridge-- in a 50/50 D+1 district-- unable to even break 30%. Worse yet, the Environmental Defense Fund’s Action PAC today launched a $230,000 ad buy in favor of Gibson:



As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline Gibson had raised $2,261,120 and had $1,910,550 in cash on hand. Eldridge had raised $3,069,179 and had $2,106,220 on hand. But $1,340,000 came right out of Eldridge's personal bank account and most of the rest came from his wealthy friends in Manhattan, where he lives. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has already spent $350,000 bolstering Gibson and the DCCC's response? $9,136 (mostly in the form of bagels and lox Fed-Exed to Eldridge staffers weekly by Steve Israel).

The irony of all this, is that left to his own devises, Eldridge probably isn't a bad candidate. He may be too young and self-entitled but I hear he's got some progressive instincts. The problem is that in an effort to cement backing from the DCCC and Blue Dog Steve Israel, he's repressed those progressive instincts and come out like a tepid centrist. Multimillionaire tepid centrists may give Israel a woody but that isn't what inspires Democratic voters-- ergo the 29% support even after spending all that money (although, admittedly most of it was wasted on really horrible consultants the DCCC pushed on poor Sean like Jeffrey Pollock at the Global Strategy Group and the maker of insipid SKDKnickerbocker ads, Andrew Shipley). And to add insult to injury, even after Eldridge twisted himself into a pretzel to fit into Israel's mystery meat loser model, the DCCC support for him… doesn't go beyond the bagels and cream cheese.

The DCCC didn't even include Eldridge on their Red-to-Blue list until Eldridge threatened that he and his husband would stop financing Democrats and when Israel announced which districts the DCCC would be investing all those tens of millions of dollars they trick the Democratic grassroots to give them, NY-19 was not on the list. Israel is willing to throw away millions on absurd races in Michigan and Arkansas-- and is pumping money into NY races to help Recchia, Woolf and Robertson (all in tougher districts than Eldridge's) while studiously ignoring NY-19. Their House Majority PAC has taken the same stance: No money for NY-19.

Advice to Eldridge: forget Steve Israel and his failed Blue Dog stratagems. Think about how Elizabeth Warren displaced Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, how Alan Grayson beat GOP incumbent Ric Keller (in an R+3 district) and how Matt Cartwright beat Hoyer/Israel-backed Blue Dog Tim Holden last cycle in a Pennsylvania not very far from where you are. Hint: none of them bought into the mystery meat/GOP-light precepts of the Beltway Democrats that are wrecking your campaign. Candidates shall not live on bagels alone.

Eldridge's consultant-heavy campaign can do a lot better than this tepid, uninspiring, cookie-cutter, DCCC-grade crap he released yesterday, an ad that will neither inspire Democrats to go to the polls nor change the mind of a single independent or Republican-- just a total waste of money for everyone but the consultants who are getting rich while leading Eldridge down the garden path:

Politico's Alex Isenstadt Gets Slammed In The Face By DCCC Mystery Meat

Poor Sean Eldridge is getting blamed for Steve Israel's "Mystery Meat Strategy." He and his husband, Chris Hughes, have contributed so much money to Steve Israel's corrupt enterprise that, surely, he deserves better. First Israel downgraded him to a mere "Emerging Race," a bad signal to institutional donors, and now he's left Sean to rot in the hands of the high-priced, cynical and incompetent consultants who will rob him blind and leave him with… at best, a lesson learned.

When the Democrats sift through the ashes of their fake campaign to take back the House in November, I bet no one will bring up the cornerstone of Steve Israel's absurd "strategy," his "mystery meat" tactics. Israel has ordered his unbelievably bad roster of fifth rate candidates to keep their mouths shut about issues and to avoid serious reporters who might ask them substantive questions. Last month we saw Israel's horrible recruit to run against Rodney Davis in IL-13, Ann Callis, lose all the newspaper endorsements in the area by refusing to sit down for an interview with any of them. This is becoming standard operating procedure for the Steve Israel zombies. Real candidates seek out the media and push their issues and positions, trying to win over voters. Steve Israel manufactured shills hide from the media, put up asinine websites with no issues and behave the way poor Sean behaved towards Alex Isenstadt. Watch the video up top.

Back to IL-13 for a moment, where Republican Rodney Davis is probably now a lock for reelection, the Israel candidate won her primary but not before the Chicago Tribune and the State Journal-Register exposed the DCCC strategy:

When political candidates agree to sit with the State Journal-Register's editorial board ahead of an election and explain where they stand on issues important to voters, it's a unique opportunity for them to do just that-- explain where they stand.

When political candidates agree to sit with The State Journal-Register's editorial board ahead of an election and explain where they stand on issues important to voters, it's a unique opportunity for them to do just that-- explain where they stand.

The Chicago Tribune was even more explicit about Callis'-- and the mystery meat strategy's-- shortcomings. As part of their endorsement of her Democratic opponent, George Gollin, they said that "in the Democratic primary… Sen. Dick Durbin's chosen candidate is carefully insulated from anyone who might ask her a tough question. Former Madison County chief judge Ann Callis sticks to safe talking points, occasionally name-checking Durbin. Her answers to our survey are carefully scripted, heavy on promises to protect seniors and middle-class families without explaining what she'd actually do. She would not agree to be interviewed by the Tribune." The conservative-leaning newspaper went on to say "Our pick is George Gollin… We disagree with many of his positions, but at least we know where he stands."

What reporters haven't figured out yet is that the Callis and Eldridge silliness is a national phenomenon. Take CA-31 as another example, the solid blue Inland Empire district Israel botched in 2012, allowing far right Arkansas neo-Confederate multimillionaire, Gary Miller, to sneak into office. Israel doubled down this year by recruiting the same out-of-touch, corrupt, lame-brained candidate who lost in 2012, Pete Aguilar. Before I knew that Aguilar was out-of-touch, corrupt, and lame-brained, I called his office to ask him about his campaign, since there was nothing useful on his website. He wouldn't come to the phone but the guy who answered very politely said he would try helping answer my questions. Except he didn't know any answers to any questions-- even the most basic, non-invasive, uncontroversial ones. I figured he was an intern when he told me the DCCC hadn't told them what their positions are supposed to be yet but that they expected them to within a week and that they would call me back. I was somewhat flabbergasted that even an intern would be so lame as to admit that and made a note to myself to mention it to Aguilar when he called back. He never did of course… and the intern turned out to be-- unless there are two Boris' in this pathetic campaign-- Boris Medzhibovsky, the imported DCCC campaign manager. No reporter has been able to get Aguilar, who is frequently… high, to speak about the huge blunder he made in backing Chained CPI, a very conservative position that steals benefits from the Social Security cost of living adjustment and isn't popular in hard-pressed San Bernardino County, especially not among Democratic voters Aguilar needs to impress. Maybe Alex Isenstadt should try interviewing Pete too!

Standing in sharp contrast to the tongue-tied loser candidates Israel has assembled, are the candidates listed by Alternet today-- Key Progressive Politicians To Watch In the 2014 Elections. Every single one of them, though they may have to battle moron consultants trained in mystery-meatism by the DCCC, has taken on a leadership role in his or her community about the tough issues that distinguish a progressive from a conservative. These are not "ex"-Blue Dog Steve Israel's dreadful array of Blue Dogs and New Dems… these are candidates eager to seek out the media and make the case for a progressive agenda. You can find the best of the best House candidates here and the best of the best Senate candidates here. The DCCC isn't helping these men and women win in November, just like they never helped Alan Grayson, Donna Edwards, Raul Grijalva, Matt Cartwright or any good progressives who needed it. So… it's up to us.

UPDATE: Isenstadt Strikes Back

Earlier today Isenstadt posted his report, Chasing Sean Eldridge. It's another is a series of devastating reports about an ambitious, fabulously wealthy, completely unprepared 27 year old outsider thirsting for political power.

Wealthy people who run for public office typically stick to the same basic blueprint: Plow millions of their personal fortunes into the campaign. Hire big-name consultants. Flood the TV airwaves with ads.

Sean Eldridge is making all of that look quaint. The 27-year-old husband of Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes has turned his congressional campaign for New York’s 19th District into a multimillion-dollar start-up-- a gambit that veteran election watchers say is as unique as it is brazen.

It has unfolded in rapid-fire sequence. After Eldridge decided he wanted to run for office, he and Hughes in 2011 bought the first of two luxurious homes in the Hudson Valley region. Soon after, Eldridge set up a venture capital firm, Hudson River Ventures, that has provided millions in loans and equity lines to local companies. And now the first-time candidate, who’s running his first business, is touting the jobs he’s created in the blue-collar district.

“I know firsthand what it takes to support small businesses and create good jobs,” reads one pamphlet his campaign is plastering throughout the area.

Like no other 2014 candidate, Eldridge is testing the limits of dollars and cents to secure a seat in the House of Representatives. The Democrat is tapping Hughes’s vast wealth-- estimated at $700 million-- to build an elaborate campaign apparatus in a district where he remains a stranger to many. In addition to his firm’s investments, Eldridge has spent more than $700,000 on his campaign, and that figure is sure to rise exponentially because he’s promised to match each contribution he receives, dollar for dollar.

His efforts are all the more striking in contrast with incumbent GOP Rep. Chris Gibson, a 49-year-old decorated war veteran and former college professor who lives in the same middle-class neighborhood where he grew up. Gibson’s financial disclosure report filed with the House lists a savings account of $100,000 to $250,000, and the Center for Responsive Politics ranks his personal wealth in the bottom fifth of House members.

Gibson does little to hide his disdain for Eldridge, whom he calls a “young man with virtually no experience.” The district, encompassing a vast swath of the northern Hudson Valley and Catskills, is one of the most evenly divided in the country. Gibson won there in 2010 on the strength of the Republican wave and secured reelection in 2012 even as President Barack Obama carried the district by 6 percentage points.

“This is about him and his political aspirations, and I think that’s going to be a problem for him. He married well, he married into money,” Gibson said of Eldridge. “But there are some things money can’t buy.”

It’s difficult to size up the person behind the polished image Eldridge and his campaign are projecting to voters. He’s been running for more than half a year but remains mostly an enigma.

Congressional challengers typically seek maximum media exposure; Eldridge allows few chance encounters with the media. His campaign frequently posts pictures on his Facebook page of the candidate out and about in the district, but local reporters say they’re usually not made aware of his public schedule ahead of time. He declined to be interviewed by Politico, and the door to his campaign headquarters in Kingston was locked on a recent visit. No one answered a call on an intercom.

A spokesman provided a statement from Eldridge that said, “Chris and I have been very fortunate in our lives, and we’ve benefited from those who took a chance on us. The Hudson Valley is our home, and we’re proud to be investing in entrepreneurship in our community.”

Even people who have spent time with the candidate aren’t sure what to make of him.

A few weeks after his September campaign launch, Eldridge sat for an interview with Alan Chartock, an influential liberal radio host in upstate New York. They talked for almost 30 minutes, discussing Eldridge’s views on the federal shutdown, environmental policy and money in politics.

“If you look at what we’ve seen in Washington recently, with more of this brinkmanship, more of the games and party politics that are really hurting our economy and hurting middle-class families and not helping anyone. I’m frustrated. I know we can be doing better than how we’re doing now,” Eldridge said in the interview.

Chartock came away without any real sense of the candidate.

Eldridge sounded like “what a young person thinks a politician should sound like,” the radio host said in an interview. “He’s right on all the issues, but what I think people are looking for is a person. He’s extremely bright, has all the assets that you need to run. But it’s cookie cutter.”

Eldridge employs a team of prominent political consultants-- including media firm SKDKnickerbocker, polling outfit Global Strategy Group and veteran party operative Anne Lewis — who carefully tend to his image. Through the end of last year, he paid the three entities a total of $241,000, campaign records show.

…For a while, Eldridge had his eye on another congressional seat. In 2011, he and Hughes, who had been living together in a SoHo loft, purchased a $5 million estate in Garrison, N.Y, positioning Eldridge to run in the neighboring 18th District. But in November 2012 that district’s Republican congresswoman, Nan Hayworth, lost reelection to a Democrat. So Eldridge looked north to the 19th District, where Gibson had just won a second term.

In Jan. 2013, the couple paid $1.9 million in cash for a 3,000-square-foot home in Shokan, N.Y., an area just outside Woodstock in Gibson’s district. “Sleek and sexy with walls of glass to showcase the awe-inspiring views of the Catskill Mountains, Ashokan Reservoir, and beyond,” the buyers were promised.

The home is shielded from public view; a “Private Property” sign warns passersby. Eldridge’s advisers won’t say how much time he spends in the Shokan house as opposed to the couple’s other two residences.

...Eldridge’s team denies that the venture capital firm and campaign are coordinated. But the overlap is undeniable.

Michael Oates, a New York businessman and CEO of the firm, is Eldridge’s campaign treasurer. SKDKnickerbocker is working for Eldridge’s campaign and doing public relations work for the investment group at the same time. Some press releases for Hudson River Ventures lavish Eldridge with praise.

Several campaign finance experts said the use of a venture capital firm to advance a political campaign was a novel tactic. They say it wouldn’t be illegal unless Eldridge was using campaign dollars to fund Hudson River Ventures, which aides say he isn’t doing.

“Candidates who employ people in the districts they’re running in enjoy some advantages. What’s so unusual about this situation is that he’s being so transparent about it,” said campaign finance expert Paul Herrnson, executive director of the University of Connecticut’s Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Some locals have been turned off by Eldridge’s sudden arrival on the scene. They suspect he’s using his fortune as a substitute for the hard, tedious work of running for Congress.

As the Democratic mayor of Kingston, the district’s largest city, Shayne Gallo said he expected to hear from Eldridge shortly after he moved into the district. Instead, last June, he received an email from an Eldridge staffer, asking for an endorsement. Gallo didn’t respond to the message.

“I was extremely surprised, and I was offended,” he said. “I would think it would be prudent … if not politically polite and respectful, to reach out to those who’ve gone through this process and who are local yokels and who are stakeholders in the community you hope to represent.”

“Considering that someone isn’t from the area, wasn’t born or raised in the district, doesn’t have an established record in public or private service, nor any notable achievements in our local or regional economy … I’m very perplexed by that,” the mayor said.

Gallo said the Eldridge campaign had recently reached out to him and that a meeting between him and the candidate would be taking place soon.

Others say they’re simply puzzled by what Eldridge is doing.

…Eldridge, for his part, is pitching himself as a middle-of-the-road Democrat. In interviews with local reporters, he’s come out in favor of comprehensive immigration reform while stressing the need for secure borders. He backs Second Amendment rights, but with stricter background checks.

And in an irony his GOP adversaries have seized on, Eldridge has made campaign-finance reform a central plank of his bid, decrying what he calls the corrupting influence of corporate money in politics.

“We will certainly do what we need to do to be competitive and win next year,” Eldridge said in a 2013 radio interview. “But at the same time, when I am in Congress I will be a loud and consistent advocate for campaign-finance reform.”

He repeated that position-- and, in his detractors’ view, betrayed his obliviousness-- last week when the Supreme Court struck down aggregate caps on campaign contributions. Eldridge blasted the ruling as “a disappointing step backwards for our democracy.

“Right now the voices of everyday New Yorkers are being drowned out by the big money and corporate interests in our politics,” he said in a statement. “And today’s ruling only makes that problem worse.”

Did Steve Israel Send Lox With The Bagels And Cream Cheese To Sean Eldridge's Campaign?

Yesterday there was all kinds of commotion on the right from a hum drum post about Sean Eldridge firing his campaign manager and the quality of assistance his campaign gets from Steve Israel. One person in the campaign seems angry that I mentioned Israel sent widely unappreciated bagels and cream cheese every week and another told me the story lacked credibility because I didn't mention the lox (while another refused to even confirm that there ever even was lox).

On the other hand, my suspicions about why Eldridge dumped campaign manager Mike Reid were partially confirmed. Ever hear of a Beltway outfit called Global Strategy? They do expensive "internal polls" for Blue Dogs and New Dems that the DCCC backs. Their polls are generally kept away from the press or just released in bits and pieces to help whomever is paying for the poll. Bad results are buried. Reid got the blame from some especially bad results, I'm being told.

We mentioned yesterday that Eldridge raised and self-funded $2,448,887 so far. But as of the June 4 FEC filing deadline he only had $1,564,418 cash on hand. That's because he-- Reid-- had already spent $884,469. That's not an inordinate amount to introduce a well-heeled challenger in a contest against an incumbent. But many critics thought a great deal of the money was wasted on nonsense that did him no good. I'm told that the secret Global Strategy poll confirmed that and that for all that money spent-- $965,000 from his own checkbook-- "poor" Sean was losing miserably-- in the vicinity of just 25% of the vote to Gibson's 60%.

NY-19 has a PVI of D+1 and last year's DCCC candidate, Julian Schreibman, spent a total of $1,331,223 for the whole campaign (against Gibson's $2,153,689). On top of that, the DCCC put in $1,685,047 and their House Majority PAC put in another $352,665, mostly in negative ads about Gibson. The end result was a 53-47% victory for Gibson-- even as Obama beat Romney 52-46% on the same day. Schriebman lost 9 of the 11 counties:

• Broome- Gibson 70%
• Columbia- Gibson- 56%
• Delaware- Gibson- 61%
• Dutchess- Gibson- 54%
• Greene- Gibson- 64%
• Montgomery- Gibson- 68%
• Otsego- Gibson- 53%
• Rensselaer- Gibson- 63%
• Schoharie- Gibson- 67%
• Sullivan- Schreibman- 52%
• Ulster- Schreibman- 58%

There are 7 full counties in the district and parts of 4 other. Bolded are the full counties that were won by Obama. For Sean to win in November he needs to do better in these counties and he needs to discourage GOP participation in the counties where Gibson and Romney did best, especially Schoharie, Delaware, Sullivan and in the heavily Republican precincts in the other counties.

But Eldridge is playing right from a losing DCCC playbook, calling Gibson, the single least right-wing Republican in Congress-- less right-wing than a dozen Democrats, including New Dem-next-door Sean Patrick Maloney-- a Tea Party candidate and a conservative. Voters know better and aren't buying Steve Israel's failed, moronic messaging. What Gibson should be having done by a third party-- is informing core Republican voters in the reddest precincts that Gibson votes with the Democrats on key GOP values issues and that he's not worth voting for. If Eldridge ignored Steve Israel's proven failure of a strategy and failed, hackish strategists, he could actually turn this thing around and win. But that isn't what he's doing. He's following Israel's idiotic, cookie-cutter campaign-in-a-box precepts and… well, a 25% polling result speaks for itself.

As long as we're talking about polls, by the way, Lynn Vavreck had a fascinating piece in the NY Times this morning, Why Polls Can Sometimes Get Things So Wrong. "The science of polling is sound," she asserts, "but if you ask the wrong group of people your poll questions, you can get the wrong answers."

The pre-election poll that generated so much attention was done by McLaughlin & Associates just ahead of the Virginia primary. It showed Mr. Cantor ahead with 62 percent of the vote. Of course, Mr. Cantor did not win with 62 percent of the vote. He lost, winning only 44.5 percent. In a memo detailing the results of a postelection survey, McLaughlin & Associates explained that a different set of voters turned up at the polls than those they had expected.

This is an error in judgment, not a failure of polling as a science. Right after that election, some people said Mr. Cantor’s poll demonstrated that polls cannot predict elections. But that glosses over the important point that it is nearly impossible for a well-executed poll to produce an estimate as far off base as the one in Mr. Cantor’s race.

…It’s getting harder for pollsters to identify the right set of people from which to draw a sample as campaigns in low-turnout elections become better at mobilizing voters, many of whom pollsters hadn’t anticipated voting. It’s a bigger challenge in primaries and midterm elections as far fewer people participate in these contests relative to presidential races. Using lists of registered voters and their turnout histories may have been a way for pollsters to gain efficiency in identifying potential primary voters in the past, but that efficiency is now looking like a liability.

This morning, Beltway mouthpiece Politico succinctly laid out Gibson's winning strategy against Eldridge: "Eldridge, a 27-year-old Democrat, has been beset by perceptions that he is an inexperienced, wealthy, out-of-touch transplant in New York's 19th District, where he is taking on Republican incumbent Chris Gibson, a war veteran with four Bronze Stars and a Purple Heart." Polling isn't going to save Sean Eldridge's campaign any more than bagels and cream cheese (with or without lox) will. Ignoring Steve Israel, ignoring the foolish, incompetent operatives he sends around the country to make sure money is spent "properly," and ignoring his failed DCCC could. But Eldridge doesn't have the intestinal fortitude or the vision to do any such thing. So… who will be the Democratic candidate against Gibson in 2016 when Hillary is on the top of the ticket?