Travel Is Going To Change So Much Because Of This Pandemic

I got some bullshit e-mail bordering on the criminal from American Airlines this morning. "Caring for you is our priority-- that's why we’re introducing new steps to give you even more peace of mind when you fly." They only have one priority: profit and they could care less if you die, as long as it isn't on one of their over-stuffed planes. Their message wants suckers willing to fly to know that they have "cleaning procedures on the ground and on board [and] "innovation opportunities for the future," but decidedly not than they plan to end social distancing onboard and stuff their passengers in like sardines agin, which will absolutely make people sick, some of whom will die.

"In a first for any airline," they boasted as though it were meaningful, "we’re seeking GBAC STARTM Accreditation from the Global Biorisk Advisory Council for all of our aircraft and lounges. This accreditation demonstrates we have the proper cleaning and disinfection practices, procedures and systems in place to respond to biological threats like COVID-19. Beginning June 30, we’ll ask all travelers during the check-in process to certify they have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for the past 14 days. This is in addition to requiring all travelers on board to wear a face covering." Certify? Pinky-swear?

Yesterday, writing for the Washington Post, Hannah Sampson reported that "After capping the number of people on flights since April, American Airlines announced Friday that its planes will likely be full in a few days." No wonder the E.U. has decided to ban Americans from coming back to Europe! That should hurt the airlines which-- let's face it-- deserve to be hurt.

American sent customers the bullshit above. But in their press release to the media, they admitted exactly what they're up to: "As more people continue to travel, customers may notice that flights are booked to capacity starting July 1. American will continue to notify customers and allow them to move to more open flights when available, all without incurring any cost." I was glad read that other customers were as angry as I was (even though I have no plans to fly until it's safe to-- which it is not at this point, unless you don't find getting sick.)

“I find it absolutely appalling you chose to sell the middle row seats as Covid numbers continue to spike,” one Twitter user wrote in a message directed to the airline. “I am loyal to AA but clearly you are not concerned with the safety of the public. Looks like I will fly delta since they removed the middle row. EXPECTED BETTER!”

Earlier this week, the union that represents American’s pilots pushed a plan that would have the government buy enough seats on each flights so no one would have to sit next to a stranger.

“Passengers would be encouraged to fly more thanks to uniform social distancing, airlines would be encouraged to operate more flights, and the government would ensure preservation of critical transportation infrastructure and related jobs,” the Allied Pilots Association proposed.

United said in mid-May that it would “avoid where possible seating customers next to each other” but could make no guarantees. Instead, the airline said at the time that it would “do our best” to contact travelers on flights that were expected to be close to full in case they wanted to rebook on another flight.

United spokesman Charles Hobart said in an email that the policy would stay in place through July 31, but he confirmed that the carrier does not block middle or adjacent seats.

Delta is still blocking middle seats and has committed to capping seating at 50 or 60 percent, depending on the part of the plane-- at least through Sept. 30. Southwest Airlines is blocking about a third of the seats on its planes from being booked, which it says allows for middle seats to stay open. That cap is also in place until at least Sept. 30.

JetBlue said it would continue blocking all middle seats on larger planes and aisle seats on smaller aircraft through at least July 31.

“You’re going to definitely have to sit next to a stranger again, I’m afraid, on a plane,” JetBlue chief executive Robin Hayes said during a Washington Post Live discussion in late May. “Because [of] the economics of our industry, most airlines have a break-even load factor of 75 to 80 percent, so clearly capping flights at 55 to 60 percent, which is what we’re doing right now … is not sustainable.”

Government mandates the percentage of restaurant seats that can be filled; why not airplanes? Last week, Sampson did another Post piece, 11 Ways The Pandemic Will Change Travel. Some of it doesn't sound so bad-- at least not to me:

Expect fewer crowds and experiences at tourist magnets

Theme parks, museums and iconic landmarks are known for drawing a crowd. But as they reopen and look to the future, those crowds are expected to be much smaller-- and more controlled.

In revealing plans to welcome visitors back this month and next, operators of some of the world’s largest theme parks painted a picture of what they expect a coronavirus-era “normal” to look like inside their gates. The scene: mandatory temperature checks; visitors and crew in masks; rides, lines and seats spaced to allow for social distancing; and characters that interact from afar, if at all.

“In preparing to reopen during this unusual time, we have to manage our theme parks in a very different way from what we’ve known before,” the Walt Disney Co. said in a statement announcing plans for a phased reopening of its Florida parks starting July 11.

At its Disney Springs shopping complex in central Florida, which started to reopen in May, Star Wars Stormtroopers keep watch from a balcony and issue warnings to visitors about wearing masks and staying distanced.

SeaWorld Orlando said it would modify some animal interactions, one of the park’s signature offerings. Universal Orlando Resort announced it would move to virtual lines for some attractions. Disney is doing away with fireworks shows and parades for now. And Six Flags said all parks would move to an online reservation system to manage how many people could attend and assign guests staggered arrival times.

Museums, too, are trying to envision a future where visitors will feel safe. The Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo in Washington, which drew more than 22 million visits last year, have not announced reopening dates, but plans call for only a few to open at first.

Capacity will be limited, and there may be more staff on hand to keep people appropriately distanced from each other. Face masks for everyone and cleaning throughout the day are also expected.

In Paris, the Louvre-- which has long struggled with overcrowding-- will require all visitors to book a time slot once the museum opens on July 6...

Airlines will have to balance safety and profits

Unlike many travel companies, airlines have continued to operate throughout the pandemic, although at drastically reduced numbers. Practices they have adopted over the past few months are likely to shape the future of flying, though some are certainly short-term fixes.

Blocking off some seats on planes or limiting the number of tickets sold, for example, is unlikely to be the status quo as more people start to fly. Such measures aren’t even guaranteed today across the board.

“You’re going to definitely have to sit next to a stranger again, I’m afraid, on a plane,” JetBlue chief executive Robin Hayes said during a Washington Post Live discussion last month. “Because [of] the economics of our industry, most airlines have a break-even load factor of 75 to 80 percent, so clearly capping flights at 55 to 60 percent, which is what we’re doing right now through July 6, is not sustainable.”

He said he believes airlines will need to make it easier in the future for travelers to change their flights-- a decision that, before the pandemic, came with hefty fees at most carriers.

“Because it’s not ever really going to be acceptable, I don’t think, for someone who is unwell to feel that they’re being made to fly,” he said.

Airlines are already requiring passengers and employees to wear masks, cutting food and beverage service during flights, and increasing how often they clean. Some have started asking travelers to fill out health questionnaires and checking passengers’ temperatures, but there is a broader push to have federal authorities take over those checks.

...Airports are also making changes, and the pandemic could force an overhaul of the way passengers move through the facilities, said Ty Osbaugh, the aviation leader at architecture firm Gensler.

He said he would not be surprised to see significantly more biometric screening and touchless elements within the next six to eight months. He envisioned a system that could scan his face, direct him to a TSA lane and use biometrics to let him buy anything in the airport without taking his wallet out.

“If I could go from curb to gate without physically touching anything, it kind of solves some of the pandemic issues,” he said. “I think there’s a lot of people who would prefer to do that.”

Wary travelers will stay closer to home

Before Americans start hopping on long flights or jetting around the world, experts believe they will first start venturing out closer to home.

Travel insurance comparison site Squaremouth said that based on travel insurance policies purchased through its site between April 1 and May 10 for travel this summer, domestic trips account for 48 percent of planned summer travel, an increase from 15 percent last year. And booking site Travelocity noted that most hotel bookings are within 100 miles of where travelers live.

“Our research actually says that leisure travel is going to be among the first to come back,” said Roger Dow, the chief executive of the U.S. Travel Association, in a media call last month. “It’ll be drive and shorter flights regionally.”

To create consistency across travel companies in the United States, the association released a set of guidelines last month that called for revamping public spaces to allow for physical distancing, installing barriers, moving toward touchless technology and stepping up sanitation.

But travelers within the United States should not expect consistency in the near term when trying to visit other states. Some places, including Hawaii and Maine, are either requiring most visitors to quarantine for two weeks after arriving or to show proof of a negative covid-19 test. And local rules about what can and can’t be open, and how many people can gather, could vary from city to city.

“Part of re-opening and recovery means that destinations, attractions, hotels, airlines, etc. will need to demonstrate to potential visitors that they are doing everything they can to minimize the risk as they travel to and once they are in the destination by following best practices,” Amir Eylon, the chief executive of tourism-focused consultancy Longwoods International, said in an email. “They will also need to demonstrate to the local residents, who may be wary, that they are asking visitors to ‘play by the rules.’”

Fewer travelers could mean more expensive travel abroad

While it can feel like airlines charge passengers for everything from choosing a seat to checking a bag, in reality, deregulation lowered the cost per mile for flying, making international travel more accessible than ever before.

But some worry that the impact of the pandemic on airlines may translate to less travelers flying abroad, and, as a result, will make other parts of international travel more expensive.

“If the airlines can only put half as many people on the plane, it’s going to cost a whole double,” says Rick Steves, the Washington-state-based European travel expert known for his guidebook series, public television and radio shows, and travel company that takes more than 30,000 people to Europe in a typical year. “I can afford it, but many travelers cannot. Then travel becomes an activity just for wealthy people.”

The issue is not only limited to airlines. Steves fears that by not being able to “pack the house,” establishments that make travel special such as mom-and-pop restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues will have to raise their prices to make up for the limited headcount.

Many cities around the world depend on international tourism and have felt the hit during the pandemic. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the decline in international tourism for the rest of 2020 could translate to $910 billion to $1.2 trillion in lost revenue for the industry.

...The not-so-socially distant elements of international travel that we love so much seem impossible to fully embrace while covid-19 remains without a vaccine. Will we get over virus fears and return to travel joys, such as eating street food in Bangkok, dancing in crowded Tel Aviv nightclubs or staying in a South African hostel with bunk beds?

Steves is confident those beloved aspects of going abroad will make a return after the pandemic subsides.

“You go to an Irish pub to sit next to a stranger and drink beer. You go to France to have your cheeks kissed,” he said. “I think that’s going to come back, but it’s gonna be a while.”

Buffets out, temperature checks in when ships return to sea

Two big questions have been swirling around the cruise industry since operators halted sailings in mid-March: When will ships take passengers back to sea? And what will cruising look like in the future?

While the world’s largest companies have not shared comprehensive details yet on what cruisers should expect, some things are clear: Cruise ships will not return to the sea all at once. When they do, they probably will not be as packed as they were in pre-coronavirus days. Temperature screenings, while incapable of catching asymptomatic travelers, will probably become the norm. The old-fashioned, dish-it-yourself buffet is expected to become a relic. Construction of new ships will almost certainly be delayed, and itineraries could be tweaked for a while.

...The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said cruise line plans must include temperature checks, medical screenings, testing for the coronavirus and social distancing protocols.

...Still unclear: How many people will be eager to set sail again, given the global toll of the virus and the high-profile outbreaks on ships. But cruise executives say they are optimistic based on bookings for 2021.

“I think in the early going, we have plenty of people who love cruising who will be able to fill the ships that will be available at the time,” Carnival Corp. chief executive Arnold Donald said in April.

Relocation will increase demand for home rentals

During the pandemic, many companies and their workforces learned productivity was possible outside of the office. Now that working remotely has entered the mainstream, we may see a new trend of people taking longer trips that combine work and pleasure.

"A lot of people have gotten comfortable that they don’t have to squeeze a nine-day vacation into six. They can take the extra days and maybe work a couple half-days remotely,” said vacation-rental company Vrbo president Jeff Hurst. "I do think we’re going to start to see people be more creative on how they think about working from any house, as opposed to just their own house, or any destination as opposed [to] from just their office.”

It’s a trend Airbnb chief executive Brian Chesky believes was already in motion.

“I had assumed over the course of 20 years that a generation of people would not be tethered to their city ... that people will realize over the course of working more remote, they could kind of live anywhere,” Chesky said. “I never thought that decades would happen in two months.”

In April, Airbnb added a new feature on its homepage advertising “monthly stays” to accommodate the growing interest of long-term travel. At the peak of the pandemic shutdowns, about 40 percent of Airbnb’s bookings were long-term.

That number has dropped since; however, Chesky predicts travelers’ interest in long-term stays will continue to grow with time. “I couldn’t overstate this enough; I think this is a very big, profound shift," he said.

The long-term travel trend will be more beneficial for home rentals than hotels, as they offer travelers a more comfortable stay at a more affordable price. An Airbnb with a kitchen and a garage is more approachable for day-to-day living than a 400-room hotel where a traveler is bound to room service and outside restaurants.

Another major change in the vacation rental market since the pandemic began has been an overhaul of cleaning protocols. Once upon a time, the cleanliness star rating on an Airbnb review was just another detail travelers checked before booking a vacation rental. Then coronavirus redefined the importance of cleanliness.

Companies such as Airbnb and Vrbo created new cleaning procedures for hosts to follow in the pandemic. These enhanced sanitation steps were designed to not only keep travelers safe, but also to reassure them that it’s okay to travel again. And unlike emergency cancellation policies put into place during the pandemic, some experts believe this new emphasis on sanitation will extend into the future.

“COVID-19 has heightened consumer awareness around cleanliness, which is why we released our cleanliness guidelines to educate vacation homeowners, property managers and travelers about how vacation rentals should be cleaned and disinfected,” Hurst said. “As long as travelers are finding the information provided by our partners helpful, there’s no reason for it to go away.”

Interest in private travel is here to stay

The pandemic has created a greater demand for experiences away from crowds. Until a coronavirus vaccine is found, that preference for private travel will probably continue.

According to a U.S. Travel Association survey conducted in May, people feel more comfortable traveling in personal vehicles and staying in vacation rentals than they do taking flights, taking cruises and staying in hotels. Interest in RVs has skyrocketed.

Dow, of the U.S. Travel Association, predicts the pandemic will renew interest in the Great American Road Trip, with a particular focus on the outdoors, where travelers are less likely to face crowds.

“I think you’re going to see that Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota, the more rural places, get a huge spike in travel,” Dow said.

Small restaurants and bars may be decimated for good

...Many independently owned restaurants and bars, hallmarks of having a local experience while traveling, will not be able to restart at all. Investment bank UBS predicted in April that up to one in five restaurants in the United States may close permanently.

These small businesses are fighting herculean battles to stay in business during the pandemic. When owners aren’t scrambling to keep up with new government requirements or pivoting business models (like turning into grocery stores or coming up with new takeout concepts), they’re figuring out how to pay employees and mounting bills.

“I think the really fine dining restaurants will remain as is, the sort of middle ground of restaurants will shrink, and the fast-casual places like Shake Shack will stay afloat,” said Kat Odell, a food and travel writer and author who eats at about 400 to 500 restaurants per year.

...How tourism rebounds will also play a role in restaurants’ recovery, particularly in cities such as New York and Los Angeles that rely on patronage from travelers as well as locals. Will the independent restaurant landscape remain vibrant, or become dominated by the chains that could afford to weather this storm?...

Cleaning and contact-free technology will be top priorities

Hotels are elevating a couple of key amenities these days: cleanliness and health-consciousness. That means the things that might have mattered before-- restaurants, pools, gyms, bars, make-your-own-waffle stations-- are taking a back seat.

At the same time, experts say hotels have a difficult balancing act to pull off: While prioritizing health and safety, they still need to make visitors feel comfortable and at home.

“The challenge will be how do we make sure we’re not conveying reminders of the virus,” said Kate Walsh, the dean of Cornell University’s School of Hotel Administration.”We want to convey that this is a sanitized and healthy place, but we don’t want it to feel so clinical like you’re entering a hospital.”

Guests should expect to see more frequent cleaning, transparent shields, abundant hand sanitizers, reminders about distancing and lobbies reconfigured to create more space. They should also expect to interact with fewer workers as hotels encourage people to check in online and use their phones as room keys.

“The use of technology to reduce direct contact with guests, lobby population and front desk queue is encouraged, where feasible,” guidelines from the American Hotel & Lodging Association state. “In addition, contactless payment processes are encouraged, and when not available, employees should minimize contact as much as possible.”

The association also recommends that housekeepers should not enter rooms during a stay unless they are asked to do so or get approval from guests. All that separation could make it difficult for hotels to deliver the welcoming atmosphere they promise.

“We’re distancing the staff from the guest, and the heart of hospitality is conveying warmth and being taken care of,” Walsh said. “How do you do that in a distanced way?”

She said she expects to see hotels adapt to the times by using outdoor space more creatively, removing loose items such as menus, minibar goods and pens from rooms, and either making workout equipment available in guest rooms or letting guests reserve private gym time. Room service will be of the knock-and-drop variety, while restaurants-- which will need to abide by local and state capacity guidelines-- are expected to offer more grab-and-go options.

Frank Lavey, the senior vice president of global operations for Hyatt, said in an email that the company is listening to guests and loyalty members to get a sense of what matters most to them when they return.

“Health and safety is a top priority, but there is also the need for connection, culture and new experiences,” he said. “As the world begins to reopen, we are readying ourselves to help people do what they’re longing to do-- get back on the road to explore new places, feel the excitement of reconnecting with those they miss, destress and re-energize-- once again experience the joy of travel, and do so safely.”

Programs will introduce new, temporary perks

When the pandemic struck, frequent travelers wondered what would happen to their loyalty program standings. The complicated system of miles, rewards programs, points and statuses relies on people traveling and spending money using travel credit cards. But with most people not traveling, does the system crumble?

According to loyalty program experts, that answer is no.

“Loyalty programs are huge cost centers for airlines and hotels,” said Brian Kelly, the founder and chief executive of the Points Guy, a site that offers advice on those types of perks.

Airlines and hotels generate billions of dollars in revenue from selling miles and points to credit card companies. Some worry that because the status of travel is in limbo, travel perks won’t be as powerful of an incentive for consumers to join and use branded travel credit cards. But that shouldn’t be a major issue.

“They’re trying to figure out ways to still get people to care about the miles, especially if they’re not flying,” said René de Lambert, founder of the travel blog, RenesPoints.

Kelly and Lambert say travel brands are sustaining consumer interest by offering new incentives, like having everyday spending count toward lifetime elite statuses, allowing travel loyalty points be redeemed for non-travel purchases and increasing the number of award seats on flights.

According to American Express data reported by Wirecutter, 134 percent more American Express Membership Rewards were redeemed for non-travel purposes from mid-March to mid-April compared to that time frame in 2019.

These changes may not hold over after the pandemic, Kelly said, so they are going to benefit people who make the most of them in the near future.

“You better believe there will be people buying cheap flights to get a status that they never would have been able to achieve otherwise,” he said. “There will be people making out like bandits.”

Large gatherings will creep back with caution-- if at all

Traveling for the express purpose of interacting with other people-- dozens, hundreds or even thousands-- is especially fraught now. It’s still not clear what conferences, trade shows, political and fan conventions, concerts and festivals will look like in the coming months and years, if they happen at all.

High-profile events such as SXSW, the Cannes Film Festival and the 2020 Summer Olympics have all been canceled or postponed. Most Republican National Convention festivities were moved from Charlotte to Jacksonville, Fla., after North Carolina officials called for a downsized event with safety precautions. The Democratic National Convention appears to be moving toward a scaled-back or virtual event.

Julius Solaris, the editor of EventMB, which focuses on business meetings and events, said the first of such gatherings will probably be geared toward local audiences in large cities, rather than events that draw national and international crowds.

Those early meetings, he said, should be shorter-- a single day rather than several, with sessions that last no longer than 30 minutes. Solaris said attendance will need to be slashed so there’s enough room to keep people distanced in meeting rooms. All of those conditions could make traditional events too costly to put on at all.

“It’s just not going to be profitable for some events,” he said. “They’re not going to break even.”

Solaris said he anticipates seeing some hybrids, which may include some people together in person while others participate virtually.

Festivals and outdoor events still face huge challenges as many states have limits on how many people can gather, as well as rules about social distancing. Events such as city art festivals, parades and community runs would be too difficult or pointless to operate under such rules.

“We aren’t a model that you can change up,” said Steve Schmader, the president and chief executive of the International Festivals & Events Association. “The model of getting people together in your community is the model.”

He wondered how it would be possible to do temperature checks along a parade route, or make sure that everyone watching stayed six feet apart.

“We don’t have the answers to that,” Schmader said. “We’re all going through a master’s class we didn’t ask to sign up for.”

Reopening-- Italy, Spain, Saudi Arabia...

A Hajj gets much more crowded than a Trump rally-- or inauguration

I lived abroad for 7 years and I'm a "member" of the century club (meaning I've been to over 100 countries). When I was still in my twenties and people asked me to name my favorite countries, it would always be Afghanistan, Morocco, Nepal and Ceylon (since re-named Sri Lanka). Over the years the only constant has been Morocco. There's too much air pollution in Kathmandu to go back; too much violence in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka... well, I would go back for a 4th times but... but my favorites now would have to be Italy, France, Spain, Thailand, Bali, Morocco.

Two of my traveling buddies, Roland and David, keep asking when we can go out on the road again and where. For me, it's going to be not for a long time until I even leave my house for more than a hike in the hills behind it and a weekly trip-- in my beekeepers outfit-- to the grocery store. I don't see an airplane ride in my immediate future. But... I sure am hankering for the Monto neighborhood behind the Forum where Roland and I rented a two bedroom-two bathroom apartment in the Palazzo del Grillo last we were in Rome, a week for what it would cost for a night in an equivalent hotel. (As I wrote at my travel blog 10 years ago, we didn't have the Frette sheets or the fancy towels but with what you save, you can afford to buy them and take them home! And after a few days you start to feel like you're part of the neighborhood and that you're living a normal life, not just a time and space cut-out from reality.

Italy was badly hit by the pandemic. The country had 238,720 confirmed cases (9th worse in the world), 34,657 deaths (4th worst after the U.S., Brazil and the U.K.) and 3,948 cases per million, in the population (32nd worst in the world and about the same as Texas, except Texas is just at the beginning of its battle with the pandemic and Italy is pretty much finished).

Erica Firpo lives in Rome and writes for the Washington Post. Over the weekend she made the point that Rome is ready for visitors again but that the restaurants look different. "As Italy opens up to its residents, Europe and eventually the rest of the world," she wrote, "businesses in Rome are trying to figure out how to navigate an Eternal City without the daily traffic of tourists and full offices. The centro storico, Rome’s historic center, has long relied on tourism to support many of its restaurant and food services. Opening doors again isn’t easy; restaurants are experiencing a new atmosphere thanks to changed personalities and limited tourism. Some are investing in invigorating the local community, while others are simply trying to move forward. As Rome slowly acquaints itself with the city’s new landscape, these restaurants, cafes and markets are doing their best to evolve in the city’s new landscape.

Community first

RetroBottega one of the city’s innovators for its focus on materie prime (locally sourced, raw and organic fruit and vegetables), closed its restaurant, wine bar and pasta lab along with the rest of the country on March 8. Owners Giuseppe Lo Iudice and Alessandro Miocchi quickly pivoted to support the team that supports them, i.e. its staff and its farmers, and to support the historic center’s community.

“We reached out to the community that wasn’t able [or didn’t want] to shop in the supermarket, that wanted quality,” says RetroBottega’s Lo Iudice. Reconfiguring into RetroDelivery, a CSA-structured produce delivery service, RetroBottega reached out to local residents to offer fresh produce delivery via WhatsApp.

It wasn’t easy at first, but the neighborhood quickly caught on and loved the personalized grocery service with the RetroBottega vibe. Miocchi, the pasta brain, expanded the repertoire to include fresh bread, and now RetroDelivery delivers gourmet products, meat, fish, and freshly made pasta and breads thanks to a collaboration with Roscioli, as well as a local butcher and local fish vendor.

The Roscioli family, four generations of bakers, is one of the cornerstone’s of the Campo de’ Fiori neighborhood. Roscioli is now a local empire with a coffee shop, bakery and restaurant/gourmet delicatessen.

During the lockdown, while the closed-to-public cafe organized coffee deliveries, the bakery kept its doors open and provided home deliveries of such items as homemade yeast and pizza dough.

“Bread has a social weight; we have to provide it,” explains baker PierLuigi Roscioli. In fact, he personally delivered bread to his patrons, which inspired the community and showed that there was some normalcy in a surreal situation.

Aligning with RetroBottega was a natural fit for Roscioli, as both are dedicated to providing top-quality products and investing and supporting the local community by continuing to cater, in all senses of the word, to its needs.

“We are rooted in this neighborhood; we can’t abandon it. We grew up here. It was unfathomable to think that we wouldn’t stay open. For us, it’s not about economics, but it’s a duty to our community,” says PierLuigi.

A return to dining

All’aperto (alfresco dining) is one of every Romans favorite expressions. We love eating outside, but not every restaurant has that possibility, and the new social distancing regulations and personal hesitations make indoor dining an afterthought, at best.

RetroBottega reopened its restaurant, wine bar and pasta lab but not quite as it was before. Lo Iudice and Miocchi refocused their menu by creating pizzas-- inventive and made with prime materie and antipasti. Roscioli Salumeria, the brothers’ tiny restaurant, restructured its tables and, like everyone else, requires advance reservations.

It's not an ideal situation, and not helped by the fact that Romans are not as active as tourists in dining out. To some, this is the perfect time to experience restaurants whose wait lists are weeks long, but to restaurant owners, the next few months are a precarious tight rope.

One establishment that intensely feels the effects of the pandemic’s full stop is Pizzeria Remo a Testaccio, an inexpensive, cult-favorite pizzeria in the Testaccio neighborhood. Right now, the usually busy pizzeria is quiet. Regular clients are not interested in sitting inside, whether scared of being too close or offset by the summer heat, and for those that potentially want to return, they are dissuaded by social distancing settings that make dining a lot less fun.

“Unfortunately, most people come to the pizzeria as a group of friends and family, and now would have to sit distanced from each other. Are they going to tell jokes using WhatsApp?” asks partner Antonio Amato.

Roman constants

Rome is not Rome without gelato, and during the lockdown, many gelaterie teamed up with delivery services to provide the treat to homes all over the city. Giolitti, the 120-year-old gelateria best known for its 57 flavors as well as its crowds, was this journalist’s go-to delivery for cioccolato fondente (dark chocolate) during the lockdown.

Closing its doors completely was not an option, describes Nazareno Giolitti.

“Giolitti has only been closed only a half-day when my grandfather passed away and another half-day when my father passed away. Why? Because my grandparents always said we are public service. Our feelings come second to that of the people,” he says. Giolitti maintained its staff by alternately hours, and immediately focused on at home gelato delivery.

When Italy slowly opened, Giolitti was prepared with take away coffee drinks, pastries and gelato.

“We are a tradition. A line will return and it’s our responsibility to keep it organized,” Giolitti says. But Giolitti notes that as a heritage establishment that owns its space, the gelateria is luckier than most other businesses that are struggling to pay rents and salaries.

Giolitti is now fully reopened, and the line has returned.

Traditional cafes are the staple of any Italian city. They are where we meet and greet in the morning for a quick chat and fast counter service. Although bars and cafes have been open for nearly two months, the normal routine is nothing like before. Along with social distancing protocols, which reduce the amount of people at the counter, Rome updated business hours to three time slots during May and June, where non-food-related shops (like clothing) open at 11 a.m., which means less morning traffic from incoming staff.

Bar del Cappuccino, a beloved hole-in-the wall on Via Arenula, is waiting for the foot traffic to return, like every other bar in the city center.

“Our faithful clientele has returned. And since tourists aren’t traveling, we are reaching out to local businesses,” says owner Adriano Santoro, who keeps in touch with the local community with Facebook posts and offering home delivery as well as takeaway service. “We’re all waiting to see how this moves forward.”

It sounds she could be describing Los Feliz, the neighborhood in Los Angeles where I live and where things are slowly, in some cases fitfully, starting to reopen. I haven't even thought about going back to a restaurant myself and have a feeling it may be a very long time before I do. Spain, which was also devastated by the pandemic is also starting to reopen for tourists. Overall, it was the 6th worst-hit in terms of overall cases (293,584) and 6th worse in terms of deaths (28,324). There have been cases 6,279 per million, not as bad as the U.S. (7,210) but about the same as Alabama (6,123), which is spiking, while Spain is finishing up. Saturday Spain reported a diminishing 363 new cases, while Alabama reported a rising 547. Yesterday Spain ended its 3 months-long state of emergency "allowing in tourists from most of Europe," reported The Post, but warning that hygiene measures must be followed to avoid a second wave... The move will mean Spaniards can move around the country as normal and will allow some relief for the country’s decimated tourism industry. Tourists from Britain, who make up the largest proportion of visitors to Spain each year, will also be allowed to enter without a 14-day quarantine, Foreign Affairs Minister Arancha González Laya told the BBC. However, some on holiday may be put off by having to isolate for two weeks when they return to Britain, in line with current regulations. González Laya urged Britain to implement reciprocal measures. Spain will begin to welcome visitors from outside the European Union from July 1, depending on the level of outbreak in their home countries." (I think that means they will not be allowing U.S. visitors.

The Gulf States are all among the worst hit in the world, by any metric. These are the countries listed by cases per million and with their total cases in parentheses:

• Qatar- 31,485 cases per million, worst in the entire world (88,403 total cases)
• Bahrain- 13,187 (22,407)
• Kuwait- 9,439 (40,291)
• Oman- 6,091 (31,076)
• UAE- 4,582 (45,303)
• Saudi Arabia- 4,627 (161,005)
• Iran- 2,472 (207,525)
• Iraq- 813 (32,676)

1,267 Saudis have died. I've never been there and it isn't high up on my bucket-list since it isn't hospitable to non-Muslim tourists. But despite a seriously soaring case load, they're in the process of also reopening. Again, The Post reporting. As of yesterday curfews and other restrictions imposed to fight the pandemic, were ended after 73 days of lockdown. This is insane because their infection rate is rising and there is no metric that suggests they should be reopening.

The Post's Paul Schemm reported that "Travel to and from the country remains banned, as do gatherings of more than 50 people. Mask use will continue to be mandatory outside... Sports facilities have also been reopened, but there are strict social distancing and hygiene protocols meant to prevent the further spread of the virus. Taxi rides for instance will be permitted, but payment must be by credit card rather than cash. The 1,500 mosques in the city of Mecca, the focus of an annual pilgrimage by more than 2 million Muslims a year, also reopened on Sunday. Mosques elsewhere in the country had reopened last month. Authorities have not yet announced if the annual Hajj pilgrimage set for the end of July will go forward as normal, but it is widely expected to either be canceled or severely curtailed in numbers."

Allowing the Hajj-- if people came (2.5 million did last year)-- would have been the biggest super-spreader of the virus on earth. Today the government announced a "very limited number of pilgrims"-- and just people already living in Saudi Arabia-- will be participating. (Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia had already announced that their citizens would not be going on the Hajj this year.) The Saudis have been worried about riling up the psycho extremists (their version of the Trumpist base) for whom religion trumps health concerns. There are more than 7,400,000 foreign workers, many just one small step up from slaves, living in Saudi Arabia, the majority from India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Pakistan and other poor South Asian countries. Most live in horribly overcrowded quarters and in ideal conditions for the virus to spread. The Saudis will put together a quota system allowing only certain numbers from each nationality to take part.

Everything Is Not Back To Normal Yet, But If We Pull Together And All Work Hard... Maybe Sometime In 2021

Death Of A Salesman by Nancy Ohanian

Americans so desperately want everything to go back to pre-pandemic normal that they're going to make the pandemic much worse. It's not a TV show with a happy ending; this reality could get a lot worse. In fact, it already is. There are still around 20,000 new confirmed cases in the U.S. everyday. With early frontline states New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Michigan, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and Delaware starting to get the outbreak under control, focus has moved south and west and the new frontline states are California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, the Dakotas, Arizona, New Mexico, Iowa, Nebaska, Arkansas and Wisconsin.

A few days ago a piece at Axios by Felix Salmon caught my attention. Largely because of weak, confused anti-government Republican governance, Americans are abandoning whatever there was of mask wearing and social distancing. Salmon noted that we're "about to embark upon the most momentous social experiment in living memory: What happens when you take laissez-faire economic principles and apply them to public health?" The central tenet of capitalism is that when millions of people make their own individual risk/reward calculations, the result is superior to top-down decision-making by the government. But that isn't what epidemiologists are saying about the pandemic, not with America continuing to see tens of thousands of new coronavirus cases every day. And not with so few of them resulting in a comprehensive contact-tracing review. "Given the amount of virus in the population,"he wrote, "there's a non-negligible probability that any of us could be unknowingly infectious today. Americans react to this uncertainty in line with their own idiosyncratic risk appetite. Younger folks, in particular, tend to be happier making riskier decisions, as do people like undercover police officers. As businesses reopen, decisions about things like whether to step into a crowded elevator will be made on a bottom-up rather than a top-down basis. Some people will be willing; others won't. (Both sides will view the other group as outliers.) Governors can't simply decree that business is back to usual. So long as a significant proportion of society is unwilling to resume economic activity, employment and GDP will remain depressed. Countries with more forceful and effective government responses have been able to bring the rate of infection down to a level at which most citizens can reasonably feel safe from the disease. That's not going to happen here-- and it's not going to happen in places like Brazil, India, or Mexico, either."

The biggest daily spikes are no longer in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium or any of the European countries that were hit so hard right off the bat. These are the countries with the biggest one-day reports-- over a thousand-- Thursday (first number) and Friday (second number):

• Brazil +31,890... +30,136
• U.S. +22,268... +25,393
• India +9,889... +9,471
• Russia +8,831... +8,726
• Pakistan +4,801... +3,985
• Chile +4,664... +4,207
• Peru +4,284... +4,202
• Mexico +3,912... +4,442
• Iran +3,574... +2,886
• South Africa +3,267... +2,642
• Bangladesh +2,423... +2,828
• Saudi Arabia +1,975... +2,591
• U.K. +1,805... +1,650
• Colombia +1,766... +1,515
• Qatar +1,581... +1,754
• Egypt +1,152... +1,358
• Sweden +1,080... +1,056

Salmon noted that as bad as the global picture is-- and it is really bad outside of Western Europe and East Asia-- "the U.S. has failed to hammer down the rate of new infections, which remain around 20,000 per day even as most states begin to come out of lockdown. Some states, such as Arizona [plus Texas and Florida], are seeing new record highs, even as the National Institutes of Health warns that a warm and humid summer won't help dampen the spread of the disease.





I keep talking with people who want to end sheltering in place for themselves. Big mistake-- not just for themselves and their circles, but for society. There is a safe way to reopen and an unsafe way. Trump's excuse for "leadership" is guaranteeing that the U.S. is reopening in the least safe way possible. Look at the new cases in the original half dozen worst hit western European nations:

• Spain +318
• Italy +518
• Germany +491
• France +611
• Belgium +140
• Netherlands +210

Compare that to the half dozen Trump states that have most strenuously ignored social distancing and safe practices and safe reopening guidelines:

• Texas +2,080
• Florida +1,305
• Georgia +774
• Arizona +1,579
• Iowa +355
• South Carolina +448

Drew Jones wrote an interesting piece about airplane travel for the Washington Post yesterday. After having resumed flights just over a week ago, Lion Air just down again yesterday. The company said that did so because passengers refused to follow health protocols.

According to data from [Indonesia's] Central Statistics Agency, domestic flight volume was down 82 percent in April, with 838,100 passenger on flights, compared with 4.6 million in March. International travel numbers were worse, with a 95 percent drop in passengers leading to 26,000 fliers last month as opposed to 558,700 in the month of March.

Lion Air has promised to monitor the coronavirus outbreak to keep the company’s “flight operations under applicable provisions of safety and security aspects,” and to “continue to implement health protocols according to the provisions” that prevent the spread of covid-19, but for now there’s no date set for when air travel will resume.

This week, Business Traveller reported that American Airlines is resuming flights from Dallas to Dublin July 7 and from Charlotte, LAX, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Raleigh to London beginning August 5-- as well as flights from Charlotte to Munich, JFK to Paris and Madrid, Miami to Madrid Rio and Sao Paulo, Chicago to Athens, Barcelona and Dublin, and Philadelphia to Madrid and Zurich. There is already one daily flight from JFK to Heathrow operating. American is also restarting many domestic flights and reopening some of their Admirals Club lounges-- as well as offering double their virtually worthless AAdvantage miles for customers who are crazy enough to fly before September 30 (and book during June).

Turkish Airlines resumed domestic flights this week-- despite serious and ongoing COVID-spikes-- and will start flying to 40 counties this month. Although the pandemic is out of control in much of the Middle East, Emirati, Emirates and Etihad Airlines are all flying internationally again. New confirmed cases in the Middle East reported yesterday:

• Iran +2,886 (1,992 cases per million)
• Saudi Arabia +2,591 (2,753 cases per million)
• Qatar +1,754 (23,326 cases per million)
• Egypt +1,348 (304 cases per million)
• Turkey +930 (1,998 cases per million)
• Oman +770 (2,960 cases per million)
• Iraq +1,006 (245 cases per million)
• UAE +624 (3,809 cases per million)
• Kuwait +723 (7,183 cases per million)
• Bahrain +539 (8,155 cases per million)

Although Israel, which has been relatively strict about social distancing rules and has made some good progress in containing the pandemic, doesn't allow non-Israelis to enter the country, Air Canada, Delta, Lufthansa and Wizz (a neo-Nazi airline based in Budapest) have restarted flights to Tel-Aviv. (United never stopped flying there.) Israelis who fly into the country must self-quarantine for 2 weeks. Israel is considering allowing non-citizens to start flying into the country again June 15.

If You Want To Take A Trip During The Pandemic, Try Acid Or Peyote

You know I have a travel blog too, right? In early February-- recently back from Thailand and having just canceled a summer trip to the Dordogne region of France-- I wrote a coronavirus travel post, much of it a warning about air travel. Hard to believe only month and a half has passed.

Now we find ourselves in a situation with airlines cancelling flights and governments closing borders and enforcing quarantines. Thousands of Americans are stranded overseas-- Senate Intel chair Richard Burr (R-NC) warned campaign donors but not the public of what was coming-- and the State Department has ruled out rescue flights. Basically, they have no option but to wait, probably for months before they can get home.

On Thursday, the State Department a global Level 4 travel advisory. That's as dire as it gets; there is no Level 5. The State Department is basically telling all Americans not to travel abroad at all and telling Americans who are abroad to either come home immediately-- mostly impossible-- or to "shelter in place." No new passports are being issued other than to people with "life or death emergencies." These are the latest dozen tweets from the Department's travel section-- all from Thursday morning:

• Due to #COVID19 related public health measures, effective March 20, passport agencies will only accept applications from customers with life-or-death emergencies who plan to travel within 72 hours. Some passport acceptance facilities may also suspend services. Due to #COVID19 related operational changes, we will not offer expedited passport service on or after March 20 and routine processing (normally 6-8 weeks) may be delayed. More information
• #Mauritius: Mauritius has barred admission to all travelers, including nationals, as of Mar. 19, GMT. U.S. citizens considering returning to the US are urged to work with their airlines to make travel arrangements while flights are still available. more
• #SouthAfrica: On March 18, South Africa barred admission to travelers who have recently visited the United States, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, and China. All US citizen visitors must have visas prior to arrival to enter. more
• #Croatia: All travelers barred from admission except Croatian citizens returning home, foreign citizens departing to their home countries, diplomats, law enforcement, medical workers, controlled shipments of goods, and others on a case by case basis. more
• #Angola: The Government of Angola announced that all international flights will be cancelled effective March 20. US citizens who are considering returning to the US are urged to work with airlines to make arrangements while flights are still available. more
• #Bulgaria: The Bulgarian government has banned the entry of third-country (non-EU) nationals, including U.S. citizens, into the country from March 20 to April 17. This includes all border crossing points and aviation, maritime, rail, and road. more
• #Laos: The Government of Laos announced the suspension of the issuance of visas on arrival, visas at Lao Diplomatic Missions, and eVisas, as well as visa exemption programs. These restrictions are scheduled to be in place for 30 days starting March 20. more
• #Bermuda: Effective March 20, at 11:59pm, L.F. Wade Airport will close for incoming passenger flights for 2 weeks. Only returning residents will be allowed on flights arriving March 19 & 20. If departing, work with airlines while flights still available. more
• #PapuaNewGuinea: Any traveler who has been to or transited through the United States, or any other restricted place, in the 14 days prior to their intended arrival will not be permitted to enter the country. Other restricted places listed here: more
• #Bermuda: Several airlines have reduced or suspended flight services between Bermuda and the US. US citizens who are considering returning to the United States are urged to work with their airlines to make travel arrangements while flights are available. more
• #Colombia: The Mayor of Bogota announced a drill from March 20-23 during which all people are ordered to stay off the streets or else face possible fines. Additionally, airlines have begun curtailing or ceasing operations in Colombia. more
• #Madagascar: All international flights will be cancelled effective March 20, 2020. The Government of Madagascar has also announced cruise ships may not stop in Madagascar. more

This was from the day before:

#Ethiopia: Rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, spat on, chased on foot, and accused of being infected. more

As I mentioned Wednesday, Thailand is a heavily tourism-dependent country. Yesterday, the Associated Press reported that "Thailand's government is imposing stricter rules on international travel that require people arriving from all countries to have health certificates stating they do not have the coronavirus, along with medical insurance covering the disease. The measures fall short of the total bans on international flights many countries have enacted, but are expected to sharply cut the number of visitors. Thailand has been reluctant to endanger its large tourism industry, which accounts for about 12% of its economy, according to official figures."

The decision comes just two days after the government announced that medical certificates and insurance would be required only for people arriving from “disease infected zones”-- South Korea, China, Macao, Hong Kong, Italy and Iran-- or who had visited "ongoing local transmission areas"-- the United States, parts of Japan, Britain and eight other European countries.

The health certificates now required for all arrivals must be issued within 72 hours of departure, and the insurance must cover $100,000 in medical costs.

Thai citizens also need to have health certificates but not insurance policies. In addition they will have to self-quarantine for 14 days. Quarantine rules for arriving foreigners remain unclear.

"Today we are trying to block those who bring the disease into Thailand, so that's why I tell you that everyone who is about to enter Thailand should have a health certificate," Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said. "That is an extension from four countries and two territories, but today we need it from every country as we attempt to control the outbreak in the country and lower the number of infected people as much as we can.

" Thailand on Thursday reported 60 new confirmed cases of the virus, bringing its total to 272. It has registered one death and discharged 42 recovered patients.

On Tuesday the government announced a raft of measures to combat the virus, including postponing a major holiday and shutting down schools nationwide. Provincial governors have been empowered to close venues where people gather, including massage parlors, entertainment places, gyms and sports venues. The popular tourist destination of Phuket on Thursday joined Bangkok and other provinces in applying such restrictions.

Postponing the annual public holiday of Songkran is meant to discourage the gathering and movement of large numbers of people. Millions of Thais normally travel from the big cities where they work to their hometowns during the three-day holiday to celebrate the traditional New Year. It will be rescheduled later this year.

Egypt is also heavily dependent on tourism (3rd biggest source of income)-- or at least they were until the industry evaporated entirely. The airports are shut down and the tourism minister announced he expects to lose a billion dollars a month for as long as there is an emergency situation.

On Wednesday, Forbes' travel write Christopher Elliott tried to look into the future of travel post-coronavirus but starts off with the absurd assumption that things may be headed back to normal in May. And he isn't the only one living in a fantasy world of everything getting back to normal.

Bill Patton wants to know what travel will be like after coronavirus. He and his family of 10 are headed to Antibes, France, in late May to celebrate their 50th anniversary. They've tried to cancel because of the coronavirus, but so far neither their airline or their vacation rental company will offer a refund.

"Our doctor advises we do not travel under the coronavirus conditions," says Patton, who is 76 and has a history of diabetes, allergies and asthma.

So what will France be like in May? What will travel be like after the coronavirus peaks? Will anyone be traveling at all?

A new survey suggests travel is alive and well. More than half of Americans (58%) are planning to travel between May and September 2020, as long as their destinations aren't in quarantine. But they're being careful. A quarter of participants will try to avoid big cities and public transportation, and 21% will choose domestic travel, according to the survey conducted by LuggageHero.

"Demand will come back stronger than ever once the situation is over," says Jannik Lawaetz, LuggageHero's CEO.

Here's how people will travel after the coronavirus:

1- They'll stay in the country. International travel will fall out of favor as people stay closer to the safety of home.

2- They won't travel far from home. "Staycations" and road trips will be favored over flying or cruising.

3- They'll make it quick. A softer economy will mean the traditional two-week summer vacation could turn into a long weekend. 

What will my destination be like this spring?

I know what Southern France is like now because I'm there.

I detoured to Nice, France, on my way to Italy and found an apartment on Vrbo to wait out the virus. It was a little scary at first. All the cafés and restaurants closed. There are police checkpoints in the streets.

But there's also a sense of normalcy and perspective that seems to be lacking in the United States. After all, France has survived its fair share of pandemics and world wars. People here are taking this crisis in stride and are confident it will be over soon-- certainly by the time Patton and his family arrive here.

The borders to Europe are closed for the next 30 days in an effort to contain the coronavirus. After that, things will probably return to normal quickly. By May, Patton and his family might really need that vacation in southern France.

For anyone else with spring travel plans, experts say the outlook is pretty decent. If the borders open up, your destination will happily welcome you.

But that's a big "if."

Will the travel industry come back from coronavirus?

Ask experts and they'll tell you that travel will come back quickly. Probably faster than anyone expects.

"Despite the challenges, it won’t be this way forever," says John Lovell, president of leisure travel and supplier relations and networks at Travel Leaders Group. "Travel and tourism is a highly resilient industry that has come back again and again from diseases and natural disasters."

Industry watchers like Lovell predict a quick bounce back for tourism, despite the current doom-and-gloom headlines. They point out that travel rebounded quickly after other pandemics and disasters, including 9/11.

"You have to assess your own risk tolerance, take reasonable and prudent precautions, and make smart decisions about your travel," he adds. "Right now, there are amazing travel deals to destinations all over the world."

What will travel be like after coronavirus?

Chances are, your destination will immediately begin an aggressive coronavirus recovery program the moment the "all clear" signal is given. That's the prediction of Wayne Smith, chairman of the Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the College of Charleston.

"Most destinations will institute a recovery strategy in which discounts may be a part of the overall enticement to return to travel," he says.

But don't look for deep discounts. Smith says the best strategies may not necessarily have cheaper prices but to offer more value.

"Examples I have seen in the past would be a hotel offering free meals with room purchase and maybe even packaging in attraction tickets," he says. "Instead of looking for the cheapest price, I would be looking for the best value. There are going to be plenty of high-value travel packages available."

Some parts of the travel industry might not survive

But it'll be a difficult, and maybe impossible, recovery for parts of the travel industry.

"It's going to be a long recovery," says Sophie Anderson, a marketing manager at Cruise Agency Australia, an Australian travel agency that specializes in cruises. "There are going to be collapses and bankruptcies when it's all over. At least one or two cruise lines might finally sink."

Anderson says for consumers there will be a silver lining-- cruises will be a bargain for the foreseeable future. Of course, if airlines, hotels and cruise lines start to go under, the lower prices will be irrelevant.

That's the most long-lasting-- and potentially disruptive-- effect on travel. Coronavirus will almost certainly claim several well-known travel brands, according to experts.

Yes, even with government bailouts. It's inevitable.

"History tells us that there will be fewer players in the wake of this event," says Paul Metselaar, chairman of Ovation Travel Group. "In the United Kingdom, we have already seen the demise of Flybe, and other carriers are at risk. It is entirely plausible that there will be other casualties in other segments as well.

Here are a few tips for traveling after the coronavirus outbreak

No question about it, people will travel after the coronavirus. But how?

Look for deals but focus on value. Assuming the coronavirus crisis is over, don't hesitate to book if you find a bargain for late spring or summer. But don't focus exclusively on price. Instead, look at the overall value of the deal. Are they throwing in attraction tickets or including meals?

Focus on longevity. Stay away from too-good-to-be-true offers from unknown operators. Chances are, these are fire sales from desperate companies on the verge of bankruptcy. Focus on well-known brands that are financially stable.

Consider travel insurance. A reputable insurance policy will protect you if an operator goes out of business. If you can't find a good policy, use a credit card to make your purchase. It can also offer protections from financial insolvency.

Bottom line: Travel will continue after the coronavirus outbreak. The industry will return sooner than you think, and with some great deals.

That swell bottom line ending indicates that Mr. Elliott, in all likelihood, takes free trips and hotel stays from the travel industry.

Chris Martenson didn't record his invaluable daily report today but his Peak Prosperity partner did a decent job on their home lockdown survival guide. So well worth watching: