Trump Deserves A Far Worse Fate Than He Is Likely To Get

 

Biden's First Order of Business by Nancy Ohanian

Trump doesn't exactly mix with the masses; no one would be able to get their hands on him, no matter how many COVID-deaths he has caused. Right now the U.S. is reporting over 100,000 new cases a day. On Monday it was 127,231 new cases. On Tuesday it was 142,212 new cases and so far today-- with hours of reporting to go-- it is 67,893 new cases, bringing the U.S. total to more than 10,600,000 (over 32,000 cases per million residents). Worse yet, hospitalizations are surging and in some Trumpist bastions, particularly the Dakotas and Nebraska, hospital capacity is non-existent, exactly what public health officials warned would happen if people didn't take the pandemic seriously and take serious precautions, the opposite of what has happened in Trumpistan counties-- which are all less educated, less healthy and less productive than the rest of America (the Moocher counties).

But Trump will never be held accountable for his criminal response to the pandemic and will never be charged for negligent homicide. In fact, the worst hit counties and states are all counties and states that gave Trump some of his biggest margins. Every single county in North Dakota is now a COVID-county and North Dakota, per capita, has more cases than any other place on earth (73,934 cases per million residents) and gave Trump a resounding 65.1% vote of confidence. Trump has nothing to fear in the Dakotas. But other than perhaps NYC or Chicago, he could probably walk down any street in America without be killed or assaulted, especially with his Secret Service protection-for-life. So Timothy O'Brien tried explaining this morning why Trump fears leaving the White House. Short version: "Losing the presidency leaves him vulnerable to financial and legal danger," after being "protected from the consequences of his own mistakes his entire life."

Born into a wealthy family, he was insulated from lukewarm academic prospects and serial business crack-ups by his father’s money. (“I often say that I’m a member of the lucky sperm club,” is how he put it in one of his books.) Emerging as a reality-TV star in the early 2000s, Trump discovered that fame allowed him to be as predatory as he pleased without repercussions. (“When you’re a star, they let you do it.”) And his 2016 ascent to the White House opened his eyes to the presidency’s legal armor-- which he interpreted broadly and often inaccurately. (“I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.”)

Although Trump has over the years juggled, among other difficulties, ho-hum grades, the threat of personal bankruptcy, sexual assault accusations, an intensive federal investigation and an impeachment, he has plowed ahead relatively unwounded and unencumbered by regret. Wealth, celebrity and the presidency have kept him buoyant. All that insulation has also meant that he hasn’t learned from his mistakes. Every personal and public reckoning has been postponed or shunted aside.

Now, however, Trump is staring at two threats that loom after he leaves the White House in January. One is financial, the other legal. Neither is entirely under his control. And both may help explain, along with his perennial inability to accept losing, why Trump won’t acknowledge that President-elect Joe Biden is going to succeed him and why he has enlisted the Republican Party to help him gaslight Americans about the outcome of the presidential election.

Trump and the patchwork of businesses he houses inside the Trump Organization are saddled with more than $1 billion in debt, which Dan Alexander of Forbes has helpfully tallied. A portion of that total has been divulged over the past few years in the president’s personal financial disclosures, on file with the Office of Government Ethics. The New York Times recently revealed that Trump has personally guaranteed at least $421 million of the debt, with more than $300 million coming due within four years.

In other words, Trump is on the hook for a lot of money that he may have to scramble to repay in a Covid-19-battered economy in which his industries-- hotels, leisure, urban real estate-- have been particularly pummeled. Forbes estimates his assets are worth $3.7 billion; Bloomberg News pegs them at about $3.2 billion. He’s not going broke. But if the economy continues to struggle in coming months, those valuations will be tested. And much of what Trump holds isn’t liquid, meaning he may be hard-pressed to sell assets quickly if he needs to raise funds. Among Trump’s most valuable holdings, for example, are minority stakes in two properties controlled by Vornado Realty Trust. Rumors of fire sales might further depress the value of his portfolio.

Another thing that would weaken Trump’s ability to negotiate sweetheart financial deals or forgiveness: leaving the presidency.

On the legal side of the ledger, Trump, his children and their company face aggressive investigations into their finances, accounting practices and tax payments.

The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office is investigating Trump for possible tax fraud and falsification of business records, according to appellate court filings. In this probe, which is also examining the president’s payment of hush money to two women who allegedly had sexual encounters with him, the DA’s office is seeking eight years of Trump’s tax returns. It is also taking a look at whether Trump inflated the value of his properties and other assets in order to secure funds from lenders and investors.

New York Attorney General Letitia James has launched another investigation, also focused on whether the Trump Organization and the Trump family manipulated valuations to secure funding or engineer tax benefits. James’s probe is a civil case, which could bring hefty financial penalties against Trump but no prison time (unless she finds reasons to recast it as criminal case). Vance’s investigation is a criminal matter, however, and if the Trump crew is found guilty of felonies, prison time is on the table.

Trump’s team has fought back hard against the Vance investigation, including arguing before the U.S. Supreme Court that a sitting president is immune from state criminal prosecutions. While the court rejected that notion in a landmark ruling over the summer, it would become a moot argument in any venue once Trump is no longer president.

A Trump pushed outside the legal moat that surrounds the White House becomes, for the most part, a Trump who can be sued and penalized just as any other American can. That could also give fresh traction to the sexual assault cases against him.

It’s unclear how aggressive law enforcement officials in the Biden administration will be toward Trump. They could resurrect some of the obstruction charges that have gone fallow since former Special Counsel Robert Mueller ended his probe. On the other hand, the political firestorm that could ignite might persuade Biden to hold back.

What’s clear is that Trump’s money and freedom are in play. As he comes to grips with losing the 2020 election, he will continue responding ferociously and unpredictably, like a man who for 74 years has been accustomed to getting away with almost anything.

When Trump is found guilty in Manhattan he waits for his appeal in jail (Rikers Isalnd), not in one of his mansions. Will Congress rescind his Secret Service protection-- they should-- or will the agents have to have an adjoining, unlocked, cell?

Midnight Meme Of The Day!

by Noah

In Monday's Midnight Meme, I wrote about how accused Kenosha Killer Kyle Rittenhouse had been inspired by the words of overt white nationalists like President Trump and those at FOX "News" like Tucker Tiki Torch Carlson. I mentioned that, not only Mr. Tiki Torch but other Republicans were offering defense and even praise for the murders in the streets of Kenosha. Now, encouraged by the likes of Mr. Tiki Torch and others, that feverish idiocy has all too predictably grown. Anyone who can look into the Republican mind and see the racism that drives the Republican Party would have seen that it would.

Rather than call for justice for Jacob Blake or raise money for his children who watched a cop shoot their father in the back 7 times, a Christian GoFundMe-style funding site, GiveSendGo, had raised over $280,000 for the legal defense of Rittenhouse by Tuesday morning, calling him "unfairly accused of murder." By the time you read this, I expect that the amount of money raised will have passed $300,000, maybe much more. In turn, that will inspire and incentivize more of the Republican Party Taliban to pull the triggers of their own guns or maybe bring back lynchings.

It's not just FOX "News" and an ersatz "Christian" crowdfunding site, Trumpist republicans in social media are also trying to justify the murders as self-defense. They claim Rittenhouse was defending himself from a "relentless, vicious and potentially deadly mob attack." If so, it was an attack Rittenhouse eagerly drove to from out of state. Did he do so while armed to the teeth or did he borrow the AR-15 he carried once he arrived in Wisconsin? The answer to that question may matter to the court or courts in which Rittenhouse is tried as it relates to any gun charges but the murder charges? Not nearly as much. The Daily Show's Trevor Noah assumes the truth of reports that he left home with the gun, but the second and third sentences in his quote below probably have an equal pertinence when it comes to Rittenhouse's motivations.

No one drives to a city with guns because they love someone else's business so much. They do it because they are hoping to shoot someone. That's the only reason people like him join these gangs in the first place.

But the rightwing crowd is pushing the self-defense angle big time. It's Tiki Torch Tucker's #1 theme, now. Self-defense? Really? How is traveling across a state line from Antioch Illinois to Kenosha Wisconsin and killing not one but two people with an AR-15 self-defense? GiveSendGo lies and tells us Rittenhouse had just "bravely tried to defend his community" but the truth is that Rittenhouse's town, aka his community, is 22 miles from Kenosha. Whether he left home with the gun or picked one up in Wisconsin, that sounds a lot more like taking a hunting trip to me. If he picked up the gun when he arrived, he must have known who would lend it to him and someone should investigate them. Regardless of the questions, Rittenhouse appears to be just another Trump Trooper like Florida pipe bomber Cesar Sayoc whose sticker-encrusted van was what amounted to a mobile ad for FOX "News" and other Republican goonery.

Facebook is now awash with Trump supporters who are, like former San Francisco Giant baseball player Aubrey Huff, describing Rittenhouse as a "national treasure" and an American hero. An American hero for what, taking the law into his own hands?

They also point to the legal troubles of the victims as though they actually deserved to be executed in the street by vigilantes. FOX "News," the fellow Rupert Murdoch family-owned New York Post, and other NAZI-friendly propaganda outfits have been touting Rittenhouse's alleged good deeds, even with pictures of him doing things like cleaning graffiti from the walls of schools, as if that would excuse what he is accused of. Charlie Manson used to sing in churches. Should I suppose that makes him a hero, too, especially since his gang killed some "liberal Hollywood types?"

Today's Republicans exist in a self-promulgated vicious circle of brainwashed mass hysteria which no amount of intervention will ever cure. Clearly, the murders of Joseph Rosenbaum and Anthony Huber and the wounding of Gaige Grosskreutz in Kenosha mean nothing to the psychopathic very fine people that make up the membership of the Republican Party. An attorney for Rittenhouse named John Pierce calls Rittenhouse "a shining example of the American fighting spirit" and, apparently pushing for more murder and mayhem, also says "More American men should fulfill their duty." Pierce's framing of the story gives us a clear indication of how republicans see this horrid incident and how they want all of us to see it. An alternate reality defense of Rittenhouse, where what he is accused of is righteous, normal, permissible and encouraged is being constructed just like Trump himself constructs alternate realities about COVID-19. In short, the right wing is using the Rittenhouse case as a call to arms for a race war, thus fulfilling the dream Charlie Manson had when he sent his brainwashed goons out to kill Sharon Tate and others over 50 years ago. Creating such an alternative reality is all about creating a reality that grants permission to create more death, destruction and mayhem. Even the phrase "Law and Order" is now a code for permissiveness, incitement, and invitation, at least as it comes from the lips of Republicans.

My additional questions at this moment are:

1) How long before Trump begins maniacally insisting that Wisconsin's Democratic governor should preemptively pardon Rittenhouse? Trump pardoning Rittenhouse himself would require that Rittenhouse be found guilty of a federal crime or facing federal charges. What Rittenhouse is accused of does not appear at this time to violate any federal statutes but that's why we have lawyers and courts (such as they are). Trump is already openly supportive of the accused, thus sanctioning more of the same behavior. And of course he has loudly condemned the shooting of a far right counter protester in Portland, Oregon. With Republicans like Trump, it all depends on which side of the issue you are. Shoot a NAZI = bad. Shoot a BLM protester = good. Expect Trump to become more and more of a cheerleader for such mayhem as the countdown to election day progresses.

2) How many more of the Republican Taliban army will kill how many more protesters? How many will satisfy the Republican Party's bloodlust? Someone please ask Moscow Mitch, Kayleigh McEnany, Steve Scalise and the rest of Washington's good little NAZIS. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the corporate media to do so, though.

3) How long before this devolves even further to the point where we start to see shootings like the aforementioned one in Portland? That is what any psychopath like those we saw at the Republican Con-Vention would welcome, Americans shooting Americans in a Civil War without borders of any kind. The more corpses, the merrier. Divide and conquer so you can be the biggest looters of all! All hail the billionaires in their gated mansions! Where this is going, they'll need moats, just like the good ol' days. Ask yourself, can you see the likes of Don Jr, Rudy, Jamie Dimon, Pence, the McCloskeys, or Kimberly Guilfoyle wanting it any other way?

4) Can we expect an escalation of gunfire from Trump's Troopers if he loses the election? That one is the most rhetorical of all the questions in this list. It is the Republican Party's mad goal; rubber stamped by the $enate vote not to remove Trump from office. If you want to see step one of the Republican Party platform, look no further. What we are already seeing is prelude. 5) Will there be talk of a Medal of Freedom for Kyle Rittenhouse ala career inciter Rush Limbaugh? Among the Republican Taliban twitter crowd, there already is. I've seen the memes and I've seen the tweets. You can google them for yourselves.

This strife and the coming escalation of it all stems from the attitude of President Trump and those he addressed from the White House lawn last Thursday night, He has incited them, encouraged them and emboldened them from the moment he took that tacky ride down the escalator in Trump Tower to announce his candidacy. His madness has been the proverbial snowball down hill since then. It's not like he didn't tell the world who and what he is and, as I said, when the opportunity presented itself to remove him from office, his party said they like what he is just fine and his $enators voted for more of the same and worse to come; exponentially worse the longer he remains in office, and at this point, long after that. Category 5 storms don't just disappear as soon as they hit resistance. They slowly cut through whatever they can, leaving their path of destruction in their wake. This is the current state of governance, folks.

There is nothing technically in the way of removing President Donald J. Narcissyphilis by the end of this week. Impeachment 2, conviction and removal only the desire and the will of all those who sit in the Capitol Building; the very fine people of both parties. Any and all present and future deaths from shootings of protesters and anti-protesters alike, in the streets are more on Trump and his 53 protective wiseguy $enators than anyone else, just like all of the other Trump-caused chaos of the last 4 years. Trump ordered the arson and Moscow Mitch poured the gas. But those of us who put up with Congress being complicit and say nothing to those in government share some blame as well. Our so-called representatives, the representatives that we the people voted for continue to ignore their oath to the Constitution and abdicate their responsibilities. It's no longer just about the COVID-19. It's about the virus of fascist, racist Republicanism. No one nipped it in the bud so now it's killing this country while the donor class laughs.

Did The GOP Convention Lose Trump More Voters? Don't Ask The Facebook Propaganda Machine

On Friday night, Trump hosted another super-spreader event, this one in a crowded airport hanger in New Hampshire. In 2016, New Hampshire was essentially a 47-47% tie, although Hillary had a couple thousand more votes and won the states 4 electoral votes. Trump has always maintained he was ripped off and would win New Hampshire back in 2020. Polling doesn't indicate the race is even close in New Hampshire this year. Trump favorability is way underwater and the latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden beating him by nearly ten points. The most recent poll from the University of New Hampshire shows Trump losing with 40% of the vote to Biden's 53%-- and with a 10% lead among independents. On Friday night in the hangar, while his supporters were giving each other COVID-- Trump blustered and projected ("If Biden wins, which I honestly can’t believe would happen, I will have lost to a low IQ individual") and threatened and raged, blasting "Democrat-run cities" ("We’re going to have an unbelievable year unless somebody stupid gets elected and raises your taxes").

Is it possible that the polls are all wrong-- again? I think it's more possible that the media is trying to make the election an exciting horserace but... there was that study by Cloud Research on who lies to pollsters. It shows that Republicans and independents are more likely to lie than Democrats. And they are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president. What does that mean? Well, it raises the possibility that polls understate support for Señor Trumpanzee. Cloud Research reported that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, as opposed to 5.4% of Democrats. "Shy voters" had 6 concerns:

• A lack of trust in phone polls as truly being anonymous.
• An apprehension to associate their phone numbers with recorded responses.
• Fear that their responses will become public in some manner.
• Fear of reprisal and related detrimental impact to their financial, social, and family lives should their political opinions become publicly known.
• A general dislike of phone polls.
• Malicious intent to mislead polls due to general distrust of media and political pundits (though a sentiment expressed only by a few “shy voters”). 

Slimeball by Nancy Ohanian

And then there's the Kevin Rouse OpEd in the New York Times that has gone viral, What If Facebook Is The Real Silent Majority? Nearly a dozen people sent it to me before noon on Saturday. I never got into Facebook. DWT posts get put up there and I'll occasionally answer requests I notice but I've never once, for example, looked to Facebook for news (or even opinion). I'm the opposite of Rouse, who wrote that since the 2016 election, he's "been obsessively tracking how partisan political content is performing on Facebook. I guess he takes Facebook a lot more seriously than I do. No offense, but I tend to think of people who use Facebook as a news source as being just slightly above brain-dead. But what do I know? I still blog all day. To me Facebook has always been a game I never played. To Rouse-- and I suspect, most people, Facebook is, as he wrote, "the world’s largest and arguably most influential media platform. Every morning, one of the first browser tabs I open is CrowdTangle-- a handy Facebook-owned data tool that offers a bird’s-eye view of what’s popular on the platform. I check which politicians and pundits are going viral. I geek out on trending topics. I browse the previous day’s stories to see which got the most reactions, shares and comments. Most days, the leader board looks roughly the same: conservative post after conservative post, with the occasional liberal interloper... It’s no secret that, despite Mr. Trump’s claims of Silicon Valley censorship, Facebook has been a boon to him and his allies, and hyperpartisan Facebook pages are nothing new. (In fact, my colleague John Herrman wrote about them four years ago this month.)

But what sticks out, when you dig in to the data, is just how dominant the Facebook right truly is. Pro-Trump political influencers have spent years building a well-oiled media machine that swarms around every major news story, creating a torrent of viral commentary that reliably drowns out both the mainstream media and the liberal opposition.

The result is a kind of parallel media universe that left-of-center Facebook users may never encounter, but that has been stunningly effective in shaping its own version of reality. Inside the right-wing Facebook bubble, President Trump’s response to Covid-19 has been strong and effective, Joe Biden is barely capable of forming sentences, and Black Lives Matter is a dangerous group of violent looters.

Mr. Trump and his supporters are betting that, despite being behind Mr. Biden in the polls, a “silent majority” will carry him to re-election. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s oldest and most online son, made that argument himself at the Republican National Convention this week. And while I’m not a political analyst, I know enough about the modern media landscape to know that looking at people’s revealed preferences-- what they actually read, watch, and click on when nobody’s looking-- is often a better indicator of how they’ll act than interviewing them at diners, or listening to what they’re willing to say out loud to a pollster.

Maybe Mr. Trump’s “silent majority,” in other words, only seems silent because we’re not looking at their Facebook feeds.

“We live in two different countries right now,” said Eric Wilson, a Republican digital strategist and digital director of Marco Rubio’s 2016 campaign. Facebook’s media ecosystem, he said, is “a huge blind spot for people who are up to speed on what’s on the front page of The New York Times and what’s leading the hour on CNN.”

To be sure, Facebook is not the only medium where right-wing content thrives. Millions of Americans still get their news from cable news and talk radio, where conservative voices have dominated for years. Many pro-Trump Facebook influencers also have sizable presences on Twitter, YouTube and other social networks.

But the right’s dominance on Facebook, specifically, is something to behold. Here are just a few data points I pulled from CrowdTangle this week:

The conservative commentator Ben Shapiro has gotten 56 million total interactions on his Facebook page in the last 30 days. That’s more than the main pages of ABC News, NBC News, the New York Times, the Washington Post and NPR combined. (Data from a different firm, NewsWhip, showed that Mr. Shapiro’s news outlet, the Daily Wire, was the No. 1 publisher on Facebook in July.)

Facebook posts by Breitbart, the far-right news outlet, have been shared four million times in the past 30 days, roughly three times as many as posts from the official pages of every Democratic member of the U.S. Senate combined.

The most-shared Facebook post containing the term “Black Lives Matter” over the past six months is a June video by the right-wing commentators The Hodgetwins, which calls the racial justice movement a “damn lie.” The second most-shared Black Lives Matter post? A different viral video from The Hodgetwins, this one calling the movement a “leftist lie.” (The Hodgetwins also have the 4th, 6th, and 12th most shared posts.)

Terrence K. Williams, a conservative comedian and Trump supporter, has averaged 86,500 interactions per Facebook post in August, more than twice as many as Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, who has averaged 39,000 interactions per post. (Mr. Trump outdoes them both, naturally, with an average of 92,000 interactions per post.)

A few caveats, before my Democratic readers jump off the nearest pier.

These figures include only posts on public pages, in public groups, and by verified accounts, and they don’t include Facebook ads, where the Biden campaign has been outspending the Trump campaign in recent weeks. Counting Facebook interactions doesn’t tell you how someone felt about a post, so it’s possible some conservative posts are being hate-shared by liberals. And Facebook has argued that engagement isn’t the same thing as popularity.

“These points look mostly at how people engage with content, which should not be confused with how many people actually see it on Facebook,” Joe Osborne, a Facebook spokesman, said in a statement. Mr. Osborne added that “when you look at the content that gets the most reach across Facebook, it’s not at all as partisan as this reporting suggests.” (Facebook does not disclose this type of data publicly, except once in a while in response to my tweets.)

Democrats aren’t totally absent from Facebook’s upper echelon. Ridin’ With Biden, a pro-Biden page started in April by the founders of the liberal Facebook page Occupy Democrats, has quadrupled its following over the past three months, and routinely gets more engagement than Breitbart and other right-wing heavy-hitters. Individual posts by Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama and other prominent Democrats have broken through in recent weeks.

And political campaigners have pointed out, correctly, that being popular on the internet isn’t a guarantee of electoral success. (“Retweets don’t vote,” as an experienced Democratic operative once told me.) In addition, Facebook’s older, more conservative user base may not reflect what’s happening on platforms like Instagram and TikTok, which draw a younger crowd.

Still, the platform’s sheer scale makes it vital to understand. As of 2019, 70 percent of American adults used Facebook, and 43 percent of Americans got news on the platform, according to the Pew Research Center. (Those numbers may have increased because of the pandemic.) We know that the company’s product decisions can make or break political movements, move fringe ideas into the mainstream, or amplify partisan polarization. Registering four million voters before the November election, as Facebook has said it would do, could be a decisive force all on its own. (Typically, higher turnout benefits Democrats, but given what we know about the media diets of hyperactive Facebook users, who knows?)

The reason right-wing content performs so well on Facebook is no mystery. The platform is designed to amplify emotionally resonant posts, and conservative commentators are skilled at turning passionate grievances into powerful algorithm fodder. The company also appears willing to bend its rules for popular conservative influencers. Recent reports by BuzzFeed News and NBC News, based on leaked documents, found that Facebook executives had removed “strikes” from the accounts of several high-profile conservative pages that had shared viral misinformation in violation of the company’s rules.

Over the past few years, I’ve come to view my daily Facebook data-dive as a kind of early-warning system-- a rough gauge of what’s grabbing America’s attention on any given day, and which stories and perspectives will likely break through in the days to come.

And looking at Facebook’s lopsided political media ecosystem might be a useful reality check for Democrats who think Mr. Biden will coast to victory in November.

And on his own Facebook page, Michael Moore couldn't agree more: "Sorry to have to provide the reality check again, but when CNN polled registered voters in August in just the swing states, Biden and Trump were in a virtual tie. In Minnesota, it’s 47-47. In Michigan, where Biden had a big lead, Trump has closed the gap to 4 points. Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC to pull this off? The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states-- but not Michigan. Sound familiar? I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much. Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!"

I thought Moore was the voice of doom in 2016. His prediction that Hillary would lose turned out to be correct, even if she did actually get 2,868,686 more votes than Trump did (48.2% to 26.1%). Yesterday Jonathan Lemire reported for AP that "The GOP convention’s target audience, according to campaign officials, was mostly former Trump supporters, those Republicans or independents who may have backed him in 2016 but grew unhappy with his rhetoric or handling of the pandemic. The goal, by trying to humanize Trump and demonize Biden, was to set up a permission structure to make those voters feel comfortable enough to vote for Trump again, even if they cared for his policies far more than his personality. Officials believe they accomplished that over the four-day convention and are encouraged by internal numbers that show Trump had begun closing the gap on Biden even before the events of this week in Washington. The campaign’s theory of the election has long been to turn out Trump’s base-- a smaller set of the electorate than which backs Biden, but more enthusiastic-- while also trying to win over nonvoters and drive up negative impressions of Biden so that some of his possible backers stay home.

The president’s advisers privately acknowledge minefields lay ahead in the final nine weeks before Election Day.

Trump aides are warily watching the calendar as Labor Day approaches, concerned that the three-day weekend, traditionally marked by parties and sizable gatherings, could trigger a spike in infections just like they believe Memorial Day did at the other bookend of summer.

GOP Death Cult Convention Celebrates Trump's Leadership-- As U.S. Hurtles Towards 200,000 COVID-Deaths

Tuesday, which was the second day of the #CocaineConvention, was just another normal pandemic day in the USA-- another 1,291 Americans killed by Trump and the Republican Party and another 40,098 new cases. These are the ten worst anti-hero Trumpist governors causing their states the most unnecessary contagion and how many new cases they caused as the GOP Convention kicked off:

• Greg Abbott +6,803-- 21,231 cases per million Texans
• Ron DeSantis +2,673-- 28,192 cases per million Floridians
• Brian Kemp +2,101-- 24,333 cases per million Georgians
• Mike Parson +1,060-- 12,692 cases per million Missourans
• Henry McMaster +937-- 22,042 cases per million South Carolinians
• Doug Ducey +859-- 27,377 cases per million Arizonans
• Bill Lee +813-- 21,293 cases per million Tennesseans
• Tate Reeves +801-- 26,614 cases per million Mississippans
• Kevin Stitt +650-- 13,690 cases per million Sooners
• Kim Reynolds +631-- 18,161 cases per million Iowans

For sake of comparison, the worst hit Europeans country, Spain, has 9,051 cases per million Spaniards. Yesterday, Texas and Florida led the nation in reported new COVID-deaths, respectively 206 and 186. All the western European countries combined didn't have as many deaths yesterday as either Texas or Florida:

• Spain +52
• UK +16
• France +16
• Germany +9
• Netherlands +5
• Italy +4
• Belgium +4
• Portugal +4
• Switzerland +1
• Greece +1

Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Denmark, Norway, and Finland all reported no new deaths on Tuesday.

All these numbers point to a failure of American political leadership-- a failure by Trump, first and foremost-- and a failure by his puppet governors. Harsh? Not at all. Ron DeSantis-- who forced his state's schools to reopen this month in the middle of a deadly, out of control pandemic infected 8,585 school children-- bringing the Florida total to 48,730 cases among children in the worst-run of big states in America. DeSantis ordered that any school not holding in person classes at least 5 days a week would be cut off from state funding. Many Floridians are asking if DeSantis should be tried for murder. Anselm Weber is the Democratic Party nominee for the open Florida state House seat representing HD-76 (Fort Myers Beach, Bonita Springs, Sanibel) He told us that "It is downright diabolical what DeSantis is doing with school reopenings. It doesn't take a genius to realize sending kids and school staff back to work during a pandemic, while not mandating masks, will lead to significant rises in COVID deaths. Israel was handling the virus relatively well before they reopened schools, which then resulted in a massive uptick in cases. Florida has already been the global epicenter for COVID-19 roughly a month ago, and we are in absolutely no standing to reopen schools. Moreover, DeSantis is using this opportunity to cut school funding for schools that wish not to reopen. The GOP is intentionally allowing massive COVID deaths while using this as a pretext to support their ghoulish austerity driven ideology."

Kathy Lewis is looking like a winner in a Tampa Bay area open seat district. She has also noticed what DeSantis is up to. "This is a sad situation for all," she told me yesterday. "There is no correct way that I am aware of to handle the back-to-school dilemma during a pandemic. But Governor DeSantis has put our children's lives and their parents' and teachers' livelihoods at risk by forcing a return to in-person classes. Parents and teachers are looking for well-thought direction from their elected leaders, not just offhand orders to 'figure it out.' For instance, this plan does not consider children who need specialized curricula, such as those with disabilities, who are being left adrift by the state while their teachers and parents struggle to find ways to accommodate them and keep all their students safe. I fully expect we will see a preventable rise in the number of new COVID cases and related deaths in early September-- all a result of this unconscionable decision requiring school districts to trade the safety of their students and teachers for desperately needed funding."

After Night Two of the GOP Lie-Fest, Glenn Kessler and his Washington Post team of fact checkers called it "another tsunami of untruths" and singled out 19 particular big lies.

And right after the second night's festivities Post reporter Touluse Olorunnipa began his analysis by noting that "Faced with a pandemic that has killed more than 175,000 Americans, President Trump used glitzy video and misleading testimonials to spin a tale of heroism and resolve far removed from the grim reality of a country in the throes of an uncontrolled public health crisis. At the Republican National Convention on Monday, Trump was hailed as a bold and lifesaving leader who 'was right' on the novel coronavirus while Democrats, doctors and pundits were wrong from the beginning. One campaign-style video that aired during the convention hailed Trump as the 'one leader' who stood up to the virus while quoting Democratic figures who played down the severity of the virus in its early stages."

It’s a revisionist version of recent history belied by hours of videotape in which the president minimized the threat of the virus for months, falsely predicted that it would “disappear” with warmer weather, promoted several unproven miracle cures, pushed states to reopen before meeting federal government benchmarks, equivocated on mask-wearing, defied social distancing guidelines and repeatedly told Americans that everything was under control.

With the pandemic still ravaging the country just 10 weeks before Election Day, the president is mounting his most ambitious effort yet to change Americans’ minds about his handling of the crisis-- relying on his background in reality television and show business to create an alternative reality that edits out his mistakes and magnifies those of his opponents.

“The RNC is taking a ‘Mission Accomplished’ approach to coronavirus, but the fact [Trump] can’t even hold a regular convention says otherwise,” said Amanda Carpenter, a former aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and a Trump critic who wrote a book titled Gaslighting America: Why We Love It When Trump Lies To Us.

“American life as we know it has been shut down since last March because of his magical and paranoid style of thinking, campaigning and governing,” she said.

While Trump has previously touted his coronavirus response with misleading videos, charts and quotes during news briefings and in campaign ads, the Republican National Convention gives him a platform unique in its scope and reach. Over the course of four nights, the GOP will have 10 hours of prime time coverage, with cable and broadcast networks airing large chunks of the program uninterrupted.

It is perhaps Trump’s last best chance to present an unfiltered affirmative case for a second term in a race where a majority of voters disapprove of his handling of a pandemic that has battered the economy and upended Americans’ lives.





It is likely to be a difficult task.

Government forecasts predict the country’s coronavirus death toll could surpass 200,000 by mid-September; schools continue to struggle with reopening plans as mini-outbreaks across the country shut down classes and frustrate parents; the economy continues to suffer from recession-level unemployment and desperation; a safe and effective vaccine is at least months away; and a flu season looms that public health experts say will only worsen an already precarious situation.

Trump’s positive portrayal this week of his pandemic response is also undermined by the fact that the convention is mostly virtual despite the president’s best efforts to have an in-person gathering. Still, Trump has found ways to flout public health guidance or at least to show a disregard for social distancing. He plans to have a large crowd at the White House to watch his speech Thursday on the South Lawn.

The broadly accepted view that Trump has mishandled the virus is a political liability for the president, as polls show his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, leading nationally and with key voting groups that will determine the outcome. A Washington Post-ABC News poll this month found that nearly two-thirds of registered voters say they are worried that they or their families might contract the coronavirus, and half of Republicans expressed that concern. Many of those respondents plan to vote for Biden.

Much of Monday’s convention program appeared designed to appeal to such concerned voters by convincing them they should not worry.

During one of his appearances in Monday’s program, Trump spoke with a group of front-line workers to thank them for their efforts in combating the virus.

“Well, I’m for the nurses, I’m for the doctors,” Trump said. “We just have to make this China virus go away, and it’s happening.”

The remarks echoed comments Trump has been making since January, in which he has repeatedly claimed the virus was receding or under control as it spread through the country.

“We have it totally under control,” Trump said in January when asked by a CNBC host whether he worried about a pandemic. “It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

A month later, he praised his administration for “a pretty good job we’ve done,” predicting that the number of confirmed cases in the country would soon decline to zero. The next day he declared “one day-- it’s like a miracle-- it will disappear.”

As cases surged by the thousands in the spring and throughout the summer-- leaving the United States with the most coronavirus deaths in the world-- Trump continued to tout his own handling of the virus and refer to it in the past tense. He regularly made announcements of breakthrough treatments that ultimately did not prove effective, including the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine and ultraviolet rays.

He held rallies and avoided wearing a mask at a time when public health experts said social distancing and face coverings were the country’s best tools to contain the virus.

More recently, Trump has pushed for schools to reopen, claiming falsely that children are essentially immune from catching and spreading the virus. Multiple schools have shut down in-person learning in recent weeks as hundreds of students contracted the virus. The president continues to promote the false idea that case numbers are rising mostly because of more testing. And on Sunday, Trump called an impromptu news conference to announce a “historic breakthrough,” touting a convalescent plasma treatment about which scientists have expressed doubt.

In the video that aired at the convention Monday, Trump was praised for instituting travel restrictions on China and leading an effort to quickly produce personal protective equipment and a vaccine. In the narrator’s telling, only Trump’s perceived opponents and critics were at fault for the country’s predicament.

“From the very beginning, Democrats, the media and the World Health Organization got coronavirus wrong,” the narrator says in the video, which features clips of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio commenting on the novel virus in February and early March.

The video, like others Trump has touted, does not include comments from the president in February, when he publicly dismissed concerns about the virus despite receiving briefings and warnings from top aides and the intelligence community. Trump also praised Chinese President Xi Jinping in January for “transparency” in comments that are now out of step with the president’s tough-on-China stance.

Democrats, who used much of their convention last week to slam Trump as mishandling the pandemic response, said Monday’s program was proof that the president continued to lack a coherent plan to solve the country’s topmost problem.

“The truth is that his failed leadership has needlessly cost over 177,000 Americans their lives, tens of millions of Americans their jobs, and left the United States the hardest hit country by the pandemic in the whole world,” Biden deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield said in a statement.

Trump has been his chief spokesman in defending his coronavirus response-- with his own public health experts regularly contradicting him publicly-- but this week’s convention provided an opportunity for the president to showcase other voices that support his boasts of handling the crisis flawlessly.

“As a health-care professional, I can tell you without hesitation, Donald Trump’s quick action and leadership saved thousands of lives during covid-19,” said Amy Johnson Ford, a nurse in West Virginia, who spoke of the Trump administration’s move to expand access to telemedicine.

Though public health experts have criticized the president as failing to take the virus seriously at the beginning of the year, Ford said Trump “recognized the threat this virus presented for all Americans early on and made rapid policy changes.”

Other speakers praised Trump for his administration’s efforts to ramp up production of PPE and testing kits, countering criticism he has received for the country’s shortages at the height of the pandemic.

Trump tried to cast criticism of his response as partisan politicking, using a speech in Charlotte to accuse Democrats of locking down states to hurt his electoral prospects.

“These Democrat governors love shutdowns until the election is over because they want to make our numbers look as bad as possible for the economy,” Trump said during a 50-minute speech that included several baseless charges.

Nancy Rosenblum, a professor of ethics in politics and government at Harvard University, said the president’s willingness to embrace conspiracy theories during a pandemic has hampered the country’s ability to mount an effective public health response. It’s a far cry from the traditional response to a crisis, in which Americans band together across political lines, she said.

“It’s a kind of polarized politics that has now reached down into every aspect of our lives, even to life itself,” said Rosenblum, co-author of A Lot of People Are Saying: The New Conspiracism and the Assault on Democracy.

In a second video that aired during the convention, the narrator took on a more bipartisan tone while still praising Trump’s “swift action” to save lives during the pandemic.

“We are America. Despite unpredictable events, we as Americans work together to overcome challenges and write our own stories,” the narrator said.

But with the death toll continuing to mount and just weeks to go before voting begins in several states, Trump’s attempt to rewrite the script will have limited impact on voters, Carpenter said.

“Four nights of Trumptastic reality TV won’t change the dystopian reality we are living with Donald Trump as president,” she said. “People believe their own eyes and ears over Trump.”

The number of deaths is likely to surpass the benchmark Trump set for success earlier this year just ahead of the election.

“If we can hold that down to 100,000... it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 and 200,000, we all together have done a very good job,” he said during a March 29 news conference.

The president, who is to meet with medical professionals Wednesday to discuss the pandemic, has said he will use his acceptance speech at the convention Thursday to set the record straight on his handling of the crisis.

“So we’ll be talking, because really the job that we’ve done is incredible,” Trump said Monday in Charlotte. “It’s incredible, and none of us get any credit for it, and that’s okay.”

As Ezra Klein wrote yesterday, the convention has been "bizarre, unnerving, and unprecedented. It was banal, predictable, and expected... What is there to say upon hearing Trump described as 'the bodyguard of Western civilization?' It’s not an argument so much as a loyalty oath, an offering cut from the speaker’s dignity and burnt for the pleasure of the Dear Leader himself. But the outrageousness is the point. Protest and you’re triggered-- just another oversensitive lib who can’t take a joke. Ignore it and you’re complicit. To care is to lose. The Republican Party on display Monday night didn’t represent an ideology or a governing agenda. It was a personality cult, and a tired one at that. Republicans, in a break with tradition, refused to write a party platform. They chose, instead, to recycle their 2016 platform. But the delegates agreed that if they had met to fashion an actual agenda, they 'would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration,' and as such, 'the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.'... The problem for Republicans is that the main thing Trump has told them to support is himself. There are no detailed policy proposals, much less a coherent ideology or set of governing principles. And so speech after speech followed the same template: How was America going to stop the coronavirus? By reelecting Donald Trump. How was it going to revive its economy? By reelecting Donald Trump. How was it going to ensure domestic harmony? By reelecting Donald Trump. The contradiction at the heart of the convention, of course, is that Donald Trump is currently president. I’m dead serious. How would reelecting Trump resolve these crises that Trump has proven unable to resolve-- and has, in many cases, worsened-- in office? No one even took a shot at that Rubik’s cube. Instead, the speakers awkwardly talked around the fact of Trump’s incumbency. He was presented, strangely, as both incumbent and challenger; the man who had fixed America’s problems, but also the man needed to fix an America beset by more problems than ever... The core of Trump’s agenda has always been untethering American politics from factual reality, and among Republicans, at least, he’s been startlingly successful. The convention is a loyalty test for Republicans, and a reality check for the rest of us. What are they willing to say? What are we prepared to believe? Do we still have it in us to be surprised?"

How Seriously Will Coronavirus Thin The Herd? What Can You Do About Not Being One Of The Ones Being Thinned?

Two or three weeks ago I explained why coronavirus fear had caused me to cancel a trip to the Dordogne region of France. Yesterday Scott McCartney was on the case for the Wall Street Journal: Smart Travel Planning In The Time Of Coronavirus. He began by asking, "Should you postpone or cancel travel because of coronavirus?" and replied "Yes, no and maybe." For him it's about geography-- a mistake. "For some destinations, the answer is a clear yes; others, a clear no. An increasing number are becoming a maybe, where it’s really a question of how much worry and hassle you want to pack into your trip." The disease is too rapid and virulent for there to be any negative answers, or even maybes. He's downplaying it and that's dangerous.

One threat: If you get the flu while traveling, you could end up quarantined somewhere because the symptoms in early stages are very similar to those of Covid-19.

“I think it’s a good time to assess personal risk tolerance,” says Henry Wu, director of Emory University’s TravelWell Center and assistant professor of infectious diseases at Emory University School of Medicine. “There’s a lot of potential for complications for travelers that may happen even if not high-risk for getting the disease.”

With the virus spreading beyond China to new countries, events and conferences are being canceled, airlines are expanding waivers to change reservations without penalty and more travelers are looking to postpone or cancel trips. The spread of the virus to Italy and South Korea changes travel considerations for many.

Travel does present greater risk because you typically encounter more people when traveling, public health experts say. They add that proper precautions-- frequently washing hands, avoiding touching unwashed hands to the face and liberal use of hand sanitizer-- reduce risk.

How to decide whether to go or not? Here’s a guide to help you make informed decisions:

Some Absolutes

First, if you’re sick, don’t travel. This rule applies all the time, but people routinely ignore it. Don’t do that in this climate unless you want to end up quarantined.

Some countries are or will be scanning passengers for increased body temperature. If you have a fever, you may be detained. Further, airline crews-- not to mention passengers-- are on heightened alert for anyone sneezing or coughing. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended flight crews isolate ill passengers. And it’s not negotiable: On an airplane, failure to comply with crew orders is a federal crime.

Second, no matter where you travel internationally, there is increased risk that travel may be disrupted. An outbreak can mean a city is sealed off, flights are canceled and travelers are quarantined. So best to plan ahead for serious disruption, just in case.

Take extra supplies of your medications with you. Take a supply of cold medicine and a thermometer. You might want to take work materials with you that you need after your return in case you end up stuck somewhere. Make sure you have health insurance documentation in case you end up sick. And have someone back home at the ready to help with emergency travel plans if you need to find a way home quickly. A travel agent may be a very good idea.

“As we learn more about the virus, governments can change overnight how they are responding,” says epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Third, consider whether you have a higher risk of getting sick while traveling. Older people or those with underlying medical conditions may want to ground themselves, experts say.

Dr. Wu advises getting a flu shot before traveling if you haven’t already. It can take a week to become effective, but it’s not too late in the flu season to protect yourself.

Fourth, if you want to consider travel insurance, consider only “cancel for any reason” plans. These policies typically cost about 40% more than standard policies and typically reimburse about 75% of nonrefundable trip costs if you do cancel, says Megan Moncrief, chief marketing officer for Squaremouth, a travel insurance comparison service. That’s a lower payout than other plans, but it’s the only type of travel insurance that will help at this point.

If you have insurance you bought before the outbreak began, it likely will only cover you if you contract the virus. It might cover you if you get sick and your doctor certifies you shouldn’t travel during your planned itinerary. But travel insurance doesn’t cover fear.

“People are just nervous. They aren’t sure what’s going to happen. They simply don’t want to go anymore, don’t feel comfortable going, don’t feel safe going. But those aren’t covered reasons under a standard policy,” Ms. Moncrief says.

Now that the coronavirus outbreak is well known, policies you buy won’t cover it-- it’s a known hazard. It’s the same reason you can’t buy fire insurance as wildfires approach your house.

Some Options

There are some logical ways to make an informed choice about where to go. Use the CDC’s three-level warning system, which is frequently updated and considered reliable.

Level 3 is a high-level warning of serious outbreak and it’s a no-go. The CDC recommends avoiding all nonessential travel. If your destination is Level 3-- mainland China and South Korea, which was added to Level 3 on Tuesday-- the decision is simple.

Level 2 calls for practicing enhanced precautions. You can still go, but a good rule for any travelers nervous about the virus would be to postpone or cancel trips to Level 2 counties-- Italy, Iran and Japan as of Tuesday. Wait for things to resolve.

Level 1 is when a place has been put on watch. Right now, only Hong Kong is listed as Level 1 for coronavirus. But other countries are listed with “apparent community spread”: Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam. The CDC says virus spread isn’t sustained or widespread enough to warrant a travel health notice. But that may be notice enough for you. (Here’s a link to all CDC travel warnings.)

Even without notice, you may find public events canceled and venues closed. And closings to prevent congregating crowds may happen anywhere.

Public health experts say the biggest health risk for domestic travel now is the flu. No part of the U.S. is considered higher risk for coronavirus than any other. But Dr. Nuzzo of Johns Hopkins says she doesn’t believe authorities have a good handle on where the virus is and where it isn’t, including in the U.S., because many countries aren’t testing aggressively.

“I think this virus will turn up everywhere,” she says, because that’s how respiratory viruses tend to spread. She also notes that trying to stop the spread by restricting travel hasn’t worked so far.

Still, Dr. Nuzzo booked a family summer vacation recently to Mexico and plans to go, even though she expects the virus to show up in Mexico. “My risk tolerance is that life needs to go on,” she says.

Flights by themselves aren’t considered higher risk, except that they are crowded situations. Dr. Wu notes there have been no documented or confirmed cases of coronavirus transmission aboard an airplane. The World Health Organization says an airplane cabin by itself isn’t more conducive to spreading infection. But the proximity of passengers does matter.

The WHO says the virus is transmitted by droplets, and only lives on surfaces for short periods, perhaps 30 minutes. Other health groups have questioned that, suggesting it can live much longer on surfaces. If you are concerned, wipe down surfaces you are going to touch on airplanes or other public spaces, such as hotel rooms.

Paper surgical masks are effective at keeping you from spreading disease if you are sick, but not effective at blocking you from ingesting virus. For that, health experts recommend an N95 respirator—a heavy-duty mask.

Americans are not taking this seriously enough, in part because Trump just looks at it through the prism of his own reelection chances and has been foolishly and selfishly playing it down. Tuesday, Australian virologists Ian Mackay and Katherine Arden noted that coronavirus is now showing up in 30 countries outside China and that the rapid spread indicates that "the virus is ahead of our efforts to contain it." They wrote that their post "is based on the assumption that a pandemic will occur at some point and that Wave 1 will impact us, wherever we live, in the coming weeks and months... Planning now and doing something means we can control how well we cope with some of what may be coming."

If we enter into a pandemic, large numbers of people will be sick. Even if that’s just staying home with a fever and bad cough for a week. If COVID-19 is more severe, that will have a greater impact.

And when one family member is sick, one or more others may be involved in their care, removing more people from the workplace. The same effect may result if children being excluded from school. In a worst-case scenario, widespread illness may mean too few workers to drive trucks and trains, buses and taxis, run water treatment, electricity or other government services, teach at schools or staff hospitals. This didn’t happen in Australia during the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic. But supply chains may be impacted in a number of ways.

Authorities will try to slow the speed of COVID-19 to prevent hospitals-- which are essential to care for the sickest people-- from being overloaded. Public gatherings-- sports events and concerts-- as well as schools and childcare centres, could be postponed or closed. All of which aims will be to keep people apart, making it harder for the virus to spread quickly. Again, these decisions will differ between places, and may not even have to be made.

...As long as the virus circulates, and as long as you have never been infected, you are susceptible to infection resulting in COVID-19. This will be the case for the rest of your life until you have been infected which should protect you from severe disease. COVID-19 is mostly a mild illness but can cause severe pneumonia in approximately 20% of cases, leading to hospitalization for weeks and in a portion of these cases, to death.

• Stay at least 2m away from obviously sick people.
• We’re trying to avoid receiving a cough/sneeze in the face, shaking hands, or being in the range of droplet splatter and the “drop zone”
• Wash your hands for 20 seconds & more frequently than you do now
Soap and water and then dry, or an alcohol-based hand rub, and air dry
• Try not to touch your face.
There is a chance your unwashed fingers will have a virus on them and if you touch/rub your mouth, nose or eyes, you may introduce the virus and accidentally infect yourself. Practice this; get others to call you out when you forget. Make it a game.

While a mask seems like a good idea, and when used by professionals it does protect from infection, it can actually give inexperienced users a false sense of security. There isn’t a lot of good evidence (still!) that shows a mask to reliably prevent infection when worn by the public at large. They are useful to put on a sick person to reduce their spreading of the virus.

If you or a loved one becomes sick, follow the practices of the day. Call ahead before going to a Doctor, fever clinic or hospital and get advice on what to do. Hopefully, this message is already out there and we’ll see it more once transmission of the virus is widespread.

Reducing our risk of running short of food and important goods-- the 2-week list

What we’re looking at here is trying to minimize the impact of any shortages of goods we rely on having at the grocery store or at the end of an online ordering system.

...Below we list things we’ll need to have in case of a more major interruption to supply; a stock that will last 2 weeks. Some of these things will last much longer and include items that may not be a top priority for authorities to keep stocked:

• Extra prescription medications, asthma relief inhalers Some of these may be a problem, so talk to your doctor soon.
• Over-the-counter anti-fever and pain medications paracetamol and ibuprofen can go a long way to making us feel less sick
• Feminine hygiene products
• Family pack of toilet paper
• Vitamins
In case food shortages limit the variety in your diet
• Alcohol-containing hand rub
• Soap
• Household cleaning agents
Bleach, floor cleaner, toilet cleaner, surface cleaning spray, laundry detergent
• Tissues, paper towel
• Cereals, grains, beans, lentils, pasta
• Tinned food – fish, vegetables, fruit
• Oil, spices and flavours
• Dried fruit and nuts
• Ultra-heat treated or powdered milk
Ian is not drinking black coffee, no matter what
• Batteries for anything that need batteries
• Think about elderly relative’s needs
Their medications, pets, pandemic stash, plans for care
• Pet food and care
Dry and tinned food, litter tray liners, medicines, anti-flea drops
• Soft drink or candy/chocolate for treats

In a more severe pandemic, supply chain issues may mean fresh food becomes harder to get. So this list is an add-on to the one above, and its items should be the last things to buy if you have a hint of when supplies might slow or stop for a (hopefully short) time.

• Bread, wraps
• Meat for freezing
• Milk
• Eggs
• Yogurt
• Vegetables, fruit
• Fuel for your car

To date, looking at data from China (below), most (94%) deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in those aged over 50 years of age, with more than half (51%) in those aged over 70 years. The age group most at risk for death are those aged over 80 years.

Older people with comorbidities have experienced higher proportions of death than those with no comorbidities. Most cases identified in mainland China-- 80.9% of them-- even with the more severe case catching that China has favoured-- have been classified as mild. This is good news although 20% is still a lot of “severe” disease. Mild cases recover in about 2 weeks from the time they showed symptoms, while severe cases can take 3 to 6 weeks to recover.

Because of this, we may see a big impact on our elderly population, both in terms of hospitalisation and death. Residential aged care is likely to suffer and visits to loved ones may be restricted to keep them safe. If you have loved ones in an aged care facility, ask the facility about its plans for keeping their residents safe from flu (a similar situation) and whether they have thought about what they will do if SARS-CoV-2 is spreading widely.

It will be important to check that your parents and grandparents have prepared a Will and have considered an Enduring Power of Attorney in case they are unable to make care-based decisions for themselves. These aren’t fun to organise or think about, but they’re important whether we see a COVID-19 pandemic or not, so just use this as a reminder to get it done.

And when does it become too dangerous to go out to eat in restaurants? Yesterday? Much the way Trevor Noah did last night, but writing for Bloomberg News this morning, Jonathan Bernstein explained that Trump's coronavirus press conference wasn't exactly reassuring to anyone with half a brain. "Yes, he used his usual juvenile nicknames and petty insults for the Democrats he’s going to have to work with. Yes, he blamed the stock market drop on Monday and Tuesday on-- wait for it-- the Democratic debate Tuesday night. Yes, he repeatedly praised himself for solving the problem (setting up a potential 'Mission Accomplished' moment in the likely event the pandemic spreads in the U.S.) and had administration officials praise him as well. All entirely inappropriate and counterproductive. But it was worse than that. He was at times barely coherent even for someone who knew what he was trying to say. I can’t imagine what it was like for the bulk of the nation, folks who only sometimes pay attention to politics but might have tuned in because they want to be reassured that the government is on top of the problem. He must have been almost completely incomprehensible to them, rambling on about how he had recently discovered that the flu can kill lots of people and referring in a totally oblique way to the budget requests he had made to Congress and their reaction. He occasionally said something that sort of made sense, but mostly? Not. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel’s reaction was what I thought: 'I found most of what he said incoherent.' At no time over the course of the news conference did Trump supply evidence that he had any idea what he was talking about." Yeah... we're all going to die-- although Trump supporters will probably die first; at least there's that.