GOP Senate Lemmings Headed For Cliff

 

There was a ton of info in the latest Change Research poll of new and infrequent voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that was released yesterday. "New and infrequent" but this year 84% of them say they are definitely voting. This is going to be the highest turnout election in our lifetimes and Trump is the motivating factor-- mostly antipathy towards him. Biden leads by 49-37% among these voters, who went for Hillary Clinton by 35-30%. Undecided voters are largely negative about both candidates, but they’re much more strongly negative about Trump than Biden. Biden leads among this cohort of voters in all 6 of these swing states-- 50-36% in Arizona, 52-37% in Florida, 58-31% in Michigan, 47-38% in North Carolina, 49-39% in Pennsylvania and 43-41% in Wisconsin. More factoids:

• Biden leads 44-16 among Gary Johnson voters
• Biden leads 42-17 among Jill Stein voters
• Biden leads 47-32 among those who did not vote in 2016
• A plurality of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe every single conspiracy theory and falsehood Change Research asked about, although more voters believe Trump is trying to suppress the vote, and that Russia is interfering, than that Democrats are trying to rig the election
• 5% of these voters would take a vaccine as soon as possible, even if it has not gone through standard safety procedures

And Republicans up and down the ballot are circling the drain with Trump. The latest poll in Arizona how's Mark Kelly ousting GOP incumbent Martha McSally by 10 points 52-42%. The latest poll in Maine has Sara Gideon beating GOP incumbent Susan Collins by 12 points 54-42%. The latest poll of Colorado voters shows them picking Hickenlooper over incumbent Cory Gardner by 10 points, 52-42%. Even in beet red South Carolina the latest polling shows Democratic lobbyist Jaime Harrison tied (48-48%) with Trump-whisperer Lindsey Graham!

Republican senators may know they're marching over the cliff but these lemmings are not breaking ranks with Trump. Eric Lutz wrote yesterday at Vanity Fair that Senate Republicans still seem dead set on doing Trump's dirty work. Especially Wisconsin sociopathic reactionary Ron Johnson, who has already announced his 2022 lame-duckiness.

I doubt there's a more blatant and preposterous hack in the Senate than Ron Johnson. Ginning up a fake investigation of Hunter Biden's moronic adventures in Ukraine, Johnson said, "I would think it would certainly help Donald Trump win reelection." He's been running around telling anyone who will listen that he has an October surprise to tarnish Biden coming out of his Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee fishing expedition.

Following a vote Wednesday morning, Johnson will expand his panel’s Crossfire Hurricane probe. The committee authorized dozens of subpoenas to be issued to Obama era officials, including Bruce Ohr and Andrew McCabe-- two frequent Trump targets over their role in the Russia investigation that consumed the first two years of his presidency. But another vote, to issue subpoenas in the Burisma probe, was canceled after Mitt Romney slammed that inquiry as a “political exercise” aimed at taking down Biden.

“It’s not the legitimate role of government, for Congress or for taxpayer expense, to be used in an effort to damage political opponents,” Romney said. “I do believe it's very important that the committees of Congress, and ours in particular, not fall into an increasing pattern that we're seeing, which is using taxpayer dollars and the power of Congress to do political work. That's the role of campaigns.”

Romney, the only Republican who voted to convict during Trump’s impeachment trial earlier this year, had previously expressed concerns that Johnson’s Burisma probe was being driven by partisan politics rather than oversight. On Wednesday, he said recent remarks by the committee leader “have only confirmed that perspective.” He was likely referring to comments Johnson made earlier this week during a video conference with Republicans, in which he promised to release a report that would hurt Biden politically. “Stay tuned,” the Wisconsin Republican said, as reported by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “In about a week we’re going to learn a whole lot more of Vice President Biden’s unfitness for office.”

Of course, there’s been no evidence that Biden did anything wrong in Ukraine, and Gary Peters, the top Democrat on the committee, has railed against Johnson for “knowingly advancing discredited claims that our own Intelligence Community has warned are part of a Russian attack on our democracy.” Nevertheless, Johnson has continued to promise a report by election day November 3.

With his sharp rebuke of the Burisma probe, Romney effectively got the vote to issue subpoenas in the Burisma probe scrapped. But the Utah Senator did vote in favor of dozens of subpoenas in the committee’s investigation into the origins of the FBI’s Russia inquiry, which the president and his allies have claimed was a “witch hunt” by deep state officials who sought to undermine Barack Obama’s successor. Michael Horowitz, the Justice Department’s inspector general, identified procedural missteps by federal law enforcement in the early days of the investigation, but found no evidence of political bias. Still, Attorney General William Barr and other Trump allies have been investigating their boss’s investigators, particularly since Biden, the vice president under Obama, became the Democratic nominee. Romney expressed support for a narrow inquiry by Johnson’s committee into the errors outlined by Horowitz, as long as it “does not fall in the realm of rank political undertaking.” But, in the hands of a loyalist like Johnson, whose stated mission is to damage Biden and help Trump, it’s hard to imagine such a probe being anything but that.

Yesterday afternoon, Johnson announced he has COVID-19 and is going into quarantine. Pray that the October surprise isn't the one he was plotting. Samantha Bee has a November surprise to discuss:

Midnight Meme Of The Day!

by Noah

Maybe the clown in the meme is really President Trump and not John Wayne Gacy. The hands are a little big but that could be the gloves.

Nah, It's John Wayne Gacy but I'm sure Trump would love Gacy if he were alive and said something supportive. Besides, his name is John Wayne. That in itself is enough to appeal to any repug, no?

For those who don't remember, John Wayne Gacy, like our psychopathic president, was a man who liked to paint his face up like a clown and get off on killing people. Both clowns are American serial killers. In the case of Gacy, he specialized in boys and young men. With Trump, any corpse will suffice as long as it's a corpse because of the actions of his tiny little hands or his tiny little damaged little mind. I guess he sees and embraces more options than Gacy did, though. Does that mean he's more psychotic? You decide.

In any event, the clown that lives in the White House decided to take time off from golf to visit Kenosha Tuesday afternoon. Think of that as an arsonist visiting his handiwork. I bet he was hoping the blood hadn't been washed off the street yet. In fact, this arsonist dropped in on Kenosha for far more than that. He wanted to make a point of showing solidarity with those who want to take the law into their own hands. He wants to encourage more and more violence and mayhem. The more shooting the better. Republican bonus points for non-caucasians.

Addendum:

A new entry in the ongoing NAZI clown parade is Wisconsin $enator Ron Johnson. Well, not new but I'm adding this here because I don't think what this pride of Wisconsin had to say about what happened in Kenosha should go unnoticed in the tsunami of Trump-caused chaos. Here's Johnson on Tuesday:

The way you stop the violence, the way you stop the rioting, is you surge manpower and resources, citizen soldiers, National Guard, and you overwhelm the number of rioters.

The term 'citizen soldiers' is frequently used to describe both amateur militias and the National Guard. Johnson's spokecretins, realizing that Johnson had let a cat out of his bag and endorsed the use of nutjob killer militia types in addition to the National Guard, immediately tried to walk back his statement by saying he was only referring to the National Guard. But, there it is. Both 'citizen soldiers' and the National Guard are mentioned as separate entities, right there, back to back. In yet another expression of republican bloodlust, Johnson stood right next to Donnie Psycho and revealed that he, too, approved of how two protesters came to die.

When Will There Be Real GOP Opposition To Trump And The "Permanent Damage" He's Doing To America?

Two very different visions for Wisconsin by Nancy Ohanian

Want to get into the time machine for a moment? Not ancient Egypt or a chance to hear Socrates or even a look at the French declaring human rights while chopping off the heads of their oppressors . Glorious moments in the history of man, but our trip is just two years ago-- to July, 2006. John Harwood had interviewed the very right-wing senator from Arkansas, Tom Cotton, who he dubbed "a leading Republican voice on foreign policy and potential future presidential candidate." Neither Harwood nor Cotton knew at the time, of course, but a few months after the interview, Trump went on to win Arkansas' 6 electoral votes by defeating Hillary in the state where she was once First Lady, 684,872 (60.6%) to 380,494 (33.7%).

Harwood's first question-- and Cotton's response-- probably didn't sound as important then as it does now. "One of the questions that has been raised about Donald Trump is, "Is he more friendly with Russia than it is in America's best interests to be?"

Republican foreign policy wonk Cotton glibly responded that "Putin was a KGB spy and he never got over that. He does not have America's best interests at heart and he does not have any American interests at heart. I suspect, after this week, when Donald Trump is the nominee and he begins to receive classified briefings, similar briefings to what I receive as a member of the Intelligence Committee, he may have a different perspective on Vladimir Putin and what Russia is doing to America's interests and allies in Europe and the Middle East and Asia."

Is Cotton living in a dazed and confused Republican world today, where he is now part of the Grand Enablement Brigade? Cotton's Trump affinity score is a hearty 92%. When the media speculates about who among Republican senators might stand up for the American people against Trump's insane rush towards fascism, Cotton's name is never mentioned, never. Susan Collins (R-ME), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Bob Corker (R-TN), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), John Kennedy (R-LA), Mike Lee (R-UT), Ben Sasse (R-NE), Corey Gardner (R-CO), James Lankford (R-OK) all have lower affinity scores than Cotton and all are denounced by hard core Trumpists on the fringes as being traitors to the Great Leader, and all are occasionally mentioned as possibly bulwarks against Trumpist extremism-- but the most any of them ever does is grumble and grouse.

The Harvard-educated and closeted Cotton is still laying low., still hoping his party will come to him one day (perhaps in 2024) with a presidential nomination. This guy:

HARWOOD: His criticism of John McCain. You asked him to retract and apologize. He said that President George W. Bush lied to get us into war in Iraq and didn't protect us because 9/11 actually happened?

COTTON: Well, I disagree with those statements and I said them at the time. But I think that Donald Trump and a Republican Congress will have an agenda that's better for the American people. And, you know, Hillary Clinton has a lot of things to answer for as well, to include direct lies to the American people and the FBI director has now corroborated that.

HARWOOD: but you're willing to live with those things that are distasteful to you because of Hillary Clinton?

COTTON: Well, I mean, the Clintons have set some of their own standards for low conduct in office.

HARWOOD: Right, but what do you think of his standards?

COTTON: Well, again, I've said that I disagree with those statements you cited, at the time, and I still disagree with them. I don't think they're helpful to the campaign. You know, the Republican Party is bigger than any one man. It's bigger than Donald Trump. It's bigger than me. I think that Donald Trump, like all Republicans, should be focused on the issues that matter to the American people.

Oops. Luckily, Senator Cotton only wants to be a post-thump presidential nominee, not a tea leaf reader.

If anything, Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson is even further right than Cotton, a real kook with a crazy extremist ideology. Yesterday he went on-air with conservative radio host John Catsimatidis on New York's AM 970. Johnson, considered even less likely to utter any anti-Trump syllable than Cotton said that right for Harley-Davidson to respond to Trump's trade war by moving production to other countries. "Because of the beginning of the trade war... our state has been particularly targeted. Harley-Davidson has been targeted, our cranberry industry, our ginseng industry... We're a big steel-using state. Steel tariffs are hitting us pretty bad, pretty hard. That raises the costs of American-manufactured products, of Wisconsin-manufactured products... What happened with Harley basically is the trade war. They were paying 6% tariffs [to get] into Europe, now it's 31%! If they manufacture in another country they can enjoy the lower steel prices and remain competitive... So they really don't have a choice."



The media takeaway will be Johnson saying that Trump's trade policies are doing "permanent damage." Permanent damage is a big deal. It feeds right into Randy Bryce's campaign down in the southeast part of the state, where he's already chased Paul Ryan out of Congress and is now running against a hand-picked Ryan clone, Bryan Steil.

Randy heard the same Catsimatidis radio broadcast that I did, after he  addressed the AFT convention in Pittsburgh yesterday. I asked him what he thought about it and how it might impact his own race in southeast Wisconsin. This is what he told me:

Ron Johnson admits Donald Trump is responsible for permanent damage yet he seems to be just fine with that. I’m guessing it would be a different tune if the plastics company that he married into would be affected-- but why would it? He uses prison labor to help him make a profit. Also, a decent percentage of his workers depend on BadgerCare due to the fact that he doesn’t care about their health. Ron Johnson has never been accused of being brilliant. He’s also never been accused of looking out for others.

Reminds me of another guy in Wisconsin who is running around trying to convince people he’s a “problem solving manufacturer.” We’re talking about Paul Ryan former staffer Bryan Steil who is committed to carrying on for the fleeing Paul Ryan. Steil actually is responsible for helping a manufacturer outsource hundreds of jobs to Mexico. That’s how he solves problems. As for manufacturing, he is good at fabricating BS. We won’t get fooled again. What we’ve built is a Movement in southeast Wisconsin. 

I think we're still a long way off from Republicans in Congress standing up to Trump. It's going to take an ass-whipping in November before that happens. But that's coming. Trump beat Hillary in Ryan's district by just over 10 points, 52.6% to 42.3%. That could well be the margin by by Bryce beats Steil in November. And Bryce isn't running some kind of Republican-lite DCCC campaign. He's a full-on progressive, campaigning with Bernie and on Bernie's populist issues.

Meanwhile, more muttering:

Midnight Meme Of The Day!

-by Noah

Well, now it seems that Republicans have flipped their lids so badly that they are seeing a "secret society," a dastardly club of nefarious conspirators allied against their "president"; FBI conspirators no less.

We've always known that being a delusional, paranoid crackpot is a major qualification for membership in the Republican Party but this is even more surreal than usual. Republicans think they have proof positive that there is a "secret society" within the FBI that that "secret society" is out to get them and their traitorous trumpanzee of a president. Apparently, they see the "proof" in a joking sarcastic mention of this "secret society" in an FBI agent's text as all the proof they need. It's a case of seeing what you want to see so much that you lose what bearings you had, if you had any in the first place.

What's that that people always saying about Repugs having no sense of humor? Add that to the fact that if an FBI agent is talking about this "secret society" on a relatively easy to hack media... well, it's not really very secret, is it? Who would know this better than an FBI agent? Sigh, repugs have no sense of irony either, just as they have no sense at all. This nonstop attack on the law enforcement community by the Republican Party has completely crossed over into loony land, the place where the Republican Party feels at home and most comfortable. The Republican Party is clearly so desperate to discredit the Mueller investigation that they are willing to destroy the fabric of the law enforcement infrastructure of this country to do so. Sure our legal system often affixes a certain facade or moving goalposts quality to our laws, but this? No wonder these people think that college professors are members of the illuminati. Of course, this behavior makes ya wonder if they aren't just afraid there's not only proof of traitorous behavior of their president but also proof to be found that they are in it up to their necks as well, doesn't it? Clearly, the desperation that is driving their minds to short-circuit and cause these actions is a manifestation of the desperation of people trying to cover their own asses.

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, a man who is no stranger to derangement, took the lead on this latest example of Republican kookery, but, of course, the fellow kooks at Trump state television, formerly known as FOX "News" eagerly ran with it. Endlessly babbling the words "secret society" like it was their new mantra, FOX and the rest of overt Republican media went full-on Alex Jones with a conspiracy that Johnson said showed "corruption at the highest levels of the FBI,",adding "There's so much smoke here, there's so much suspicions." Bad grammar aside, I saw Johnson say this on national TV and I had to wonder if smoking copious amounts of weed was now not only legal but encouraged in the Capitol Building. I guess it might explain a lot.

I'm also wondering: Is there a magical treehouse where the "secret society" secretly meets? If so, how often and what secret rituals might be involved? Is there a secret decoder ring that each FBI agent gets with their badge? Is there witchcraft? Does everyone get a shoe-phone? Are Scully & Mulder secretly working to remove Trump from power and install Hillary Clinton as president?

At first I thought maybe the "secret society" held their meetings at Hillary's child sex ring pizza joint, but that place just got too hot. So, it turns out that the Chinese place shown in today's meme is where the secret meetings of the "secret society" are held! Jeez! It says so right on their sign! Right out in the open! So brazen of those dastardly FBI people! A public secret meeting! They're just flaunting it! The arrogance! And... wait, a Chinese restaurant! Say no more! The Chinese must be involved! Those numbers in the fortune cookies aren't just numbers to play in the lottery, they're a secret code! Holy shit! The republicans are right after all! This is bigger than we ever imagined! And isn't Jared Kushner close to the Chinese? Jared's part of the conspiracy! He wants to be president! This is like ancient Rome or Egypt where some relative bumps off the Emperor or Pharaoh! And, damn, he's a registered Democrat way up in that librul bastion New. York. City! My God! Can't you see it! Can't you see it!

Hey, I gotta go now. I just got word from moonbat crazy Trey Gowdy and Rand Paul that there's a new joint session republican hearing about to convene. They say they're opening up a taxpayer-funded investigation into the half-man-half-goat aliens that Mitch McConnell says he saw exiting a spaceship that landed in his backyard this morning. Reportedly, the aliens were seen to be wearing "I'm With Her" t-shirts, and, dare I say it, get this... no pants! But, first, I gotta go get some Chinese.

Republicans Choking On Ryan's Tax Scam?

Ryan got his Republican tax scam through the House yesterday 227-205. No one doubted it would pass the House. Only 13 Republicans dared to stand up for their constituents instead of the multimillionaires and billionaires who will benefit from this travesty. Most were from New York, New Jersey and California. All the Republicans in New Jersey voted "NO" except the richest and most crooked of the lot: Tom MacArthur. In New York most of the Republicans stood with their constituents instead of Trump, including Elise Stefanik, Dan Donovan, Peter King, Lee Zeldin and John Faso. Katko stuck it to his constituents badly--afer announcing he's retiring. The ones who need to be defeated by their constituents in 2018 are Tom Reed, Claudia Tenney and Chris Collins, all crackpot wing-nuts. And then California-- only 3 of the House's 14 Republicans stood with their constituents: Issa, Rohrabacher and McClintock. So, the signatories to the California GOP Suicide Pact:

• Ed Royce (CA-39)
• Mimi Walters (CA-45)
• Steve Knight (CA-25)
• Jeff Denham (CA-10)
• David Valadao (CA-21)
• Devin Nunes (CA-22)
• Kevin McCarthy (CA-23)
• Duncan Hunter (CA-50)
• Kevin Calvert (CA-42)
• Paul Cook (CA-08)
• Doug LaMalfa (CA-02)

Ted Lieu is the only good regional vice chair the DCCC has. He's not just "good;" he's great. notice when the DCCC endorsed 11conservative shit-heads in primaries this week, not one was in California. That wasn't by coincidence. Yesterday after Ryan's tax scam vote, Ted told me that "Many California Republicans just voted to increase taxes on their own constituents, explode the federal deficit, increase the federal debt, hurt people with student loans, whack folks with medical bills, and potentially crash the housing market in California. Oh, they also voted to name a post office today. One of these two votes will cause many of them not to get re-elected. Can you guess which one?"

Sam Jammal can. Sam's the top candidate in CA-39 (mostly northeast Orange County, represented by Ed Royce since 1992) how he reads what happened. "Ed voted to retire today," he stated flatly. "It will either be by force or choice, but one thing is clear-- Ed is done. By voting against homeowners, students, seniors and working families to help his donors and out of district millionaires, Ed told our community he no longer wants to work for us."

Ricardo Franco is the progressive running for the seat Putin/Trump lover Devin Nunes holds. It's a pretty red seat but Nunes' vote to raise his own constituents taxes will make it easier to beat him next year. "Constituents here have repeatedly told Nunes and the GOP that we don't want our SALT deductions taken away, we don't want our ACA benefits taken away and we don't want our taxes to go up to line the pockets of the wealthy," Ricardo told us after the vote. "Regardless, they continue to stick it to us behind our backs. This Central Valley is the land that gave birth to the Civil Rights and Labor Rights movement in California a generation ago and it will be the land that gives us the Working Class Rights movement of today."

There are two great progressives running for the Mimi Walters seat in inland Orange County (where she doesn't live), Kia Hamadanchy and Katie Porter. Kia: "In voting for this outrageous tax increase, Mimi Walters showed her true colors again. She is more interested in making her billionaire donors, Donald Trump and Paul Ryan happy than serving the people of our district. Over and over, Mimi votes against the interested of her constituents and it’s going to put her out of a job come November 2018." And Katie: "The tax reform bill Mimi Walters voted YES on delivers a huge blow to California taxpayers. It raises taxes on California families by cutting deductions for working families, adding trillions of dollars to the national debt, and giving giant tax breaks to corporations. Orange County families were already struggling to make ends meet before Donald Trump and Paul Ryan rammed this bill through Congress. But Mimi Walters isn’t interested in fighting for working families-- she only cares about keeping Donald Trump and her mega-donors happy so they continue to bankroll her campaign."

Not that political leaders from other states weren't noticing what Trump and Ryan were up to. I liked the way Pramila Jayapal explained it to her constituents in Seattle within an hour of passage:

Republicans just moved forward with their scam on the American people that takes from working families to give trillions of dollars to the rich. The GOP tax scam will line the pockets of large corporations and the wealthy, while middle-class households will see their taxes go up. It is unconscionable.

Instead of closing corporate loopholes, Republicans are slashing the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, the student loan interest deduction, medical expense deductions – everything on which working families rely for tax relief. These deductions allow millions of families to make ends meet. And, though Republicans claim to care about exploding our deficit, this tax scam would do exactly that. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that the bill would trigger $136 billion in automatic spending cuts in 2018 alone – this includes a $25 billion hit to Medicare.

The American people see the Republican party has turned its back on the middle-class. Students, seniors, veterans, everyone except for the top 1 percent will suffer under the GOP tax scam. Just as we protected the Affordable Care Act and health care for millions, we cannot allow Republicans to rig the economy to favor the wealthy.

Before yesterday's vote, it was big news this week when ultra-conservative Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson (AKA- RonJon) announced that he's a no vote on the Senate tax travesty. He said "that he does not support the current versions of the Senate and House GOP’s tax bills-- becoming the first Republican senator to outright oppose the party’s plan to overhaul the tax system. Johnson said in a statement that he objects to the bills' treatment of businesses known as pass-throughs, whose owners pay taxes on their companies through the individual side of the tax code.

“These businesses truly are the engines of innovation and job creation throughout our economy, and they should not be left behind. Unfortunately, neither the House nor Senate bill provide fair treatment, so I do not support either in their current versions," Johnson said.

Remember, McConnell can only afford to lose 3 Republican senators-- 2 if Moore loses in Alabama-- to prevent the whole thing from falling apart. RonJon says he's the first but he's not dependable and just bitches and kvetches all the time but in the end almost never stays from leadership on votes. His Trumpanzee adhesion score is 92.3% and there are 13 Senate Republicans less tied to Trump-- including Trumpian golfing partners Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul.

There are all kind of little nooks and crannies-- and some really big ones (like the repeal of the Affordable Care Act individual mandate)-- that are landmines for some of the Republican members. What about retiring Republicans Jeff Flake (AZ) and Bob Corker (TN)? They're hardcore deficit hawks and this bill isn't the kind of legislation they would have ever approved in the past. And they both loathe Trump and voting NO could be a win-win for them. Mike Lee (UT) and Jerry Moran (KS) and kind of in the same boat, except not retiring. Utah is very anti-Trump though and Kansas Republicans understand-- through experience-- what this kind of smoke-and-mirrors tax plan does to destroy a polity. I'd watch both these guys.

And, of course there are the 3 who cratered the Obamacare repeal, Lisa Murkowski (AK), John McCain (AZ)-- the "regular order" guy-- and Susan Collins (ME). Susan Collins has a lot in the bill she objects to. Back in Maine, the Bangor Daily News speculates that she may well me a NO vote.

Republicans in the U.S. Senate have altered their tax reform plan to include a repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s mandate that all Americans have health coverage or face a penalty. U.S. Sen. Susan Collins doesn’t like that.

The Maine Republican isn’t saying that’ll make her vote against tax reform (yet), but it makes the path toward “yes” harder. The moderate Collins already has helped kill two of her party’s efforts to repeal the health care law this year... On Wednesday, Collins told MSNBC that she didn’t think linking tax reform with the so-called individual mandate is “a good idea from either the political or policy perspective,” though she supports lower taxes and hasn’t made a decision on the ever-changing Senate tax proposal.

... Collins told MSNBC that the impact on premiums from scrapping the mandate would outweigh the current penalties. She said it also endangers a bipartisan Affordable Care Act stabilization bill that she supports.

However, she also opposes a Senate provision that would allow taxpayers to deduct state and local taxes and a provision in the House tax reform bill that would eliminate a deduction for medical expenses.

Maddow has an interesting point about Collins Wednesday night too. One of the groups Ryan and Trump are targeting are school teachers. In 2002 Collins wrote a bill allowing already badly paid school teachers to take a small deductions for out-of-pocket money they spend on supplies for students. The tax bill wipes that out and Collins is quietly flipping out over it. As Trump says, we shall see. I'd also watch James Lankford (R-OK) closely. He seems to have been undergoing a sea-change in the way he's looking at things lately-- as though he's asking Jesus what to do. I could be wrong but... we shall see.

One more metric to look at. Not counting Republicans who are leaving the House to run for the Senate or for governor jobs, there were an even dozen announced retirements by the time the vote came Thursday. Only one voted against the bill, Frank LoBiondo. Ryan and McCarthy prevailed on all the rest to vote for the tax scam and betray the voters who kept them in office all these years with the threat of them not being effective lobbyists if they didn't. These 11:

• Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
• Charlie Dent (PA)
• Dave Reichert (WA)
• Dave Trott (MI)
• Lynn Jenkins (KS)
• Sam Johnson (TX)
• Ted Poe (TX)
• Bob Goodlatte (VA)
• Lamar Smith (TX)
• Jeb Hensarling (TX)
• Jimmy Duncan (TN)

State Of The Races-- Wisconsin Senate Contest And Presidential Head-To-Heads

To be honest, Wisconsin voters have had feeling of buyer's remorse for some time and there really wasn't any smart money on far right extremist Ron Johnson ever being reelected. Real Clear Politics average of polls for the Wisconsin Senate seat have Russ Feingold leader with 5.7% with 13 polls going back a year. Feigned was ahead in every single one of them. The newest poll was released yesterday by Wisconsin Public Radio and it shows Feingold ahead 51-41%-- a pretty difficult 10 point climb for Johnson, who is currently sinking, not gaining. The poll checked approval numbers for President Obama, Governor Walker and for both senators, Johnson who's term is expiring and Tammy Baldwin who was elected in 2012. Obama's approval number is 53%. Tammy's is 47%. Walker's is at 43% but Johnson's is worst-- 42%. After 6 years as senator 10% of registered voters say they've never even heard of him.

Like I said, none of this is really a surprise. The NRSC knew going into this that Johnson was their weakest link for November-- perhaps tied with Illinois' Mark Kirk. Johnson's an unpopular extremist in a state that is usually pretty moderate, especially in presidential years-- and voters seem to have fond memories of Feingold. And it doesn't matter who's at the top of the ticket in this race. Voters feel they've tried Johnson out and he's not what they were looking for.

But another factor seems to be having an impact on the race: the hyper-partisan obstructionism Mitch McConnell and Chuck Grassley have orchestrated to greet President Obama's nomination of centrist Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. Johnson supports their position of blocking the nomination by not even allowing hearings on a respected and much-admired circuit court chief justice.Now look at the responses to these two questions from the WPR poll:

Maybe it's just a coincidence, but no one can argue that Johnson throwing his lot in with the obstructionists is helping him with Wisconsin voters. A majority favors hearings and the more Feingold's campaign helps voters connect the obstructionism to Johnson, the worse it's going to be for him in November.

A tiny aside, here. The poll did head to head match-ups between the 4 remaining candidates. Just like in North Carolina and virtually every other state, Bernie beats the Republicans handily and Clinton... well, that whole lesser-of-two-evils case her campaign desperately sometimes works a little and sometimes doesn't. Bernie beats Trump 52-33% among registered Wisconsin voters. Hillary beats Trump too-- but it's much hairier-- Clinton 46%, Trump 34%. Worse is the match-up with Cruz. Bernie cleans his clock, 50-40%. Hillary is within the margin of error, 45-44%. Not good in a state the Democrats have to win to to come out ahead in November. Don't say I didn't warn you-- Hillary is too dangerous for Democrats who want to win the White House.

You can help Bernie at the thermometer on the right and Russ Feingold at the thermometer on the left. Which means more to you?

Will The Republican Party EVER Be Able To Escape Its Own Congenital, Backward-Looking Obstructionism?

On the day Obama announced his nominee to fill Scalia's job was Merrick Garland, we made it clear what our opinion of the nomination is: Yuck! The political gamesmanship yielded up the most conservative nominee a Democrat has proposed to the Supreme Court in many decades. Terrible choice... but politically strategic. Easily, the worst of all outcomes would be that Garland gets confirmed in a lame duck session after a Bernie landslide pulls in a nearly filibuster-proof Democratic Senate that does not include Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Mark Kirk (R-IL), Rob Portman (R-OH), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Roy Blunt (R-MO), John McCain (R-AZ), Rand Paul (R-KY), Richard Burr (R-NC), and where Alan Grayson has replaced Marco Rubio. That would mean a Senate with 57 Democrats (as long as Vermont replaces Bernie with Peter Welch) and 43 pretty demoralized Republicanos. With Bernie in the White House and a healthy Democratic majority in the Senate, there would be no need to pick a conservative nominee. Even if Clinton wins the White House, she would likely pick a better nominee than Garland, likely nominate outstanding California Supreme Court Justice Goodwin Liu.

But Democratic strategy has been to pressure vulnerable-- and even not-so-vulnerable-- Republicans to give Garland a fair hearing. Mark Kirk already met with him. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski said they will as well. And with editorialists across the country pounding on the GOP for their blatant and ugly obstructionism, even Kansas' Jerry Moran and far right ideologue Ron Johnson indicated that they might be open to a fair process. But then the pressure from the far right started mobilizing and-- poof-- Moran, Murkowski and Johnson instantly caved.

Johnson, who is the most likely Senate Republican to lose his seat in November, told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel on March 16 that he'd meet with Garland. "I have no problem with meeting with people. I'll have to say, I'm not sure what the point will be." He's since changed his perspective to "no comment." Moran, who has no viable opponent in November, but was blasted by the editors of the Kansas City Star on March 16, has been even worse.

Senators Jerry Moran of Kansas and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have reversed themselves and say they now back the decision made by Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, not to hold hearings.

“Senator Moran called Senator Grassley to discuss his position,” said a statement released by Mr. Moran’s office on Friday. “As Senator Moran has said, he is opposed to President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. He has examined Judge Garland’s record and didn’t need hearings to conclude that the nominee’s judicial philosophy, disregard for Second Amendment rights and sympathy for federal government bureaucracy make Garland unacceptable to serve on the Supreme Court.”

Mr. Moran’s announcement, first reported by National Review, came a week after he said the Senate should move forward with the nomination process, including holding hearings and meeting with Judge Garland.

“As I have said since the vacancy was created, I believe I have a duty to ask tough questions and demand answers,” he said in a statement on March 25. “I am certain a thorough investigation would expose Judge Garland’s record and judicial philosophy, and disqualify him in the eyes of Kansans and Americans.”

On March 21, according to the Garden City Telegram, Mr. Moran told constituents, “I would rather have you complaining to me that I voted wrong on nominating somebody than saying I’m not doing my job.”

Similarly, a spokeswoman for Ms. Murkowski, Karina Petersen, said the Alaska senator also no longer supported holding hearings, though she will meet with Judge Garland to discuss cases that are important to her state.

“Senator Murkowski respects the decision of the chair and members of the Judiciary Committee not to hold hearings on the nominee,” Ms. Petersen wrote in an email.

In February, before Mr. Obama named Judge Garland as his pick, Ms. Murkowski told reporters in Alaska that the nominee should be granted a hearing. Though she emphasized, in a Facebook post the next day, that she opposed Mr. Obama’s making the nomination, Ms. Murkowski had declined to directly address her stance on holding hearings since her comments in February.

As the right-wing psychos-- including the Koch brothers' pet congressman Mike Pompeo-- went nuts on Moran's ass, he backed away from even agreeing to meet with Garland. His latest statement, through an aide: "He has examined Judge Garland’s record and didn’t need hearings to conclude that the nominee’s judicial philosophy, disregard for Second Amendment rights and sympathy for federal government bureaucracy make Garland unacceptable to serve on the Supreme Court. Senator Moran remains committed to preventing this president from putting another justice on the highest court in the land."

Just a week earlier Moran told the Dodge City Daily Globe "I think we have the responsibility to have a hearing, to have the conversation and to make a determination of the merit... I think I have the responsibility to consider a nominee presented by a president and make a determination whether he or she is qualified. I'm willing to participate in the process" and had admitted that not meeting with Garland and not pushing for a hearing would be "not doing my job."

You would be severely mistaken if you thought the only thing making the GOP dysfunctional and detrimental to the United States is Donald Trump. The way extremists can push Republican senators like Moran, Johnson and Murkowski around go deeper than Trump's bizarre ego-trip. Political scientists Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson in yesterday's NY Times:

Given the current dysfunction of the Republican Party, many both inside and outside Republican ranks are probably hoping that a big defeat will force the party to change. But waiting, as the current president once put it, for the “fever” to break may be fruitless.

Try this setup instead: It’s 2017. After Mr. Trump’s landslide defeat, President Clinton has a Democratic Senate and House of Representatives. The Republican National Committee has just released its latest post-mortem-- it probably looks a lot like the post-2012 soul-searching exercise, the Growth and Opportunity Project, which encouraged moderation in tone and inclusiveness in policy.

But that blueprint is ignored. Instead, the party quickly regroups in opposition to the incoming administration. Most Republican voters hate Mrs. Clinton even more than they hated Mr. Obama. The conservative apparatus for sowing discontent with a new administration is in place, flush with cash and battle-tested.

For Republicans in and outside government, it will be a time not for facing up to hard truths but for doubling down on hardball tactics.

...More worrisome, they reinforce a dangerous spiral. The most effective Republican response to its own unpopularity in presidential elections is to take steps to make the American political system more unpopular still.

The final pre-primary polling for Wisconsin came out a few hours ago by Emerson and it shows that Bernie has surged past the establishment candidate and now leads her by 8 points (51-43%); in Emerson's last Wisconsin poll 2 weeks ago, Hillary was up by 6 points. Nice turn-around, which he'll need to do in New York as well. He's doing his part; are we doing ours? And, you know, it's not enough to support Bernie's bid for the presidency. His political revolution means replacing an obstructionist, corporately-owned Congress with a more progressive one. You can be part of that-- we all can. Whether you give $270 to one candidate or split $27 among all of them, please take a look at these progressives running on Bernie's platform... and do what you can:

Wisconsin Voters Overwhelmingly Prefer Russ Feingold To GOP Extremist Ron Johnson

I've been meaning to get around to this all week. It's another poll-- but not one about Trump or Hillary or Dr. Ben. Republicans have been trying to rile up their brain-dead base with horrible stories of terrorists coming to get them. How many times in their now boring debates have you heard talk about Christians being crucified and innocents being beheaded? But this is starting to wear thin, even to the poor deluded souls who admit that they're Republicans. The poll, by Marist for McClatchy, shows that "[w]hen it comes to danger, voters are far more afraid of gun violence than terrorism... Overall, 63 percent of registered votes say they’re more worried that they or someone they know will be a victim of gun violence, while 29 percent more fear that they or a friend will fall prey to a terrorist attack. Democrats and independents lean heavily toward gun violence as the bigger threat... Democrats fear guns over terrorism by 77-15 percent. Independents fear gun violence over terrorism by 64-28 percent. Republicans edge toward terrorism as the bigger threat, but only narrowly, by 50-45 percent over a fear of gun violence."

[T]he percentage of Republicans concerned about gun violence reflects rank-and-file Republicans more than the GOP’s tea party and conservative base, which the presidential candidates will need to win the nomination.

Tea party supporters skew more toward terrorism as the greater threat, by 57-37 percent. And given their activist voice in primaries, that helps explain the campaign.


Overall, the 2-to-1 concern over domestic gun violence dovetails with the U.S. looking inward rather than abroad in the years since the 2001 terrorist attacks spiked concerns.

Voters largely agree that the 2016 elections should be about domestic issues such as the economy, health care and repairing the nation’s crumbling infrastructure.

Social policy, once a front-burner issue in presidential campaigns, has cooled off considerably. Only 7 percent of voters said the election should be about issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion... Democrats rank their priorities: income inequality, jobs and economic growth... Republicans rank their priorities differently, with the federal deficit No. 1, followed by economic growth and jobs. Only 4 percent of Republican voters think income inequality is the main issue... Independents rank growth first, followed by income inequality and the federal budget deficit.

Now I want to move to another poll and another topic entirely. The Democracy Corps poll by GreenbergQuinlanRosner took a good solid look at the Senate race in Wisconsin. And the news is good-- starting at the end. Both candidates are well known in this rematch between right-wing, Ayn Rand devotee Ron Johnson, the multimillionaire incumbent, and former Senator Russ Feingold. If the election were held today Feingold would win 51-46%.

On a favorable/unfavorable scale Wisconsin voters rated Feingold a net positive-- +9-- and rated Johnson a net negative-- -7.

They also polled a Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump head-to-head match-up, which wasn't even close. Hillary 50%, Trump 38%-- a 12 point margin for Hillary.


Also working in Feingold's favor is that Wisconsin voters see the Republican Party as way to partisan-- far more so than how they see the Democratic Party. No doubt this isn't just because of the low esteem in which they hold Congress, but also because of the nature of the Scott Walker administration and his extreme right-wing state legislature.

The participants were then read 3 statements, one on the Democratic government reform agenda to get dark special interest money out of politics, one on the Democratic economic agenda for the middle class, and the third a positive message about Johnson, similar to his own messaging. They were then asked to show how much the messages moved then and in what direction. OK, so first the Democrat's economic message:

We need an economy that works for the middle class, not more trickle-down economics. Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet the top 1 percent and CEOs are using money and lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. Well, we need to made sure taxpayers get their money's worth. We should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donations. Then, we must get behind an agenda for the hardworking and families. Make college affordable by getting rid of student debt; help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women; protect Social Security against any cuts in benefits; and ensure more credit and help for small businesses and independent contractors. By increasing taxes for the richest 1 percent, we can give breaks to companies that create American jobs and invest in infrastructure to modernize our country. Let's level the playing field for the middle class again.

Then the Democrat's government reform message:

We need an economy that works for the middle class, not more trickle-down economics. Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet the top 1 percent and CEOs are using money and lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. Well, we need to made sure taxpayers get their money's worth. We should start by auditing the entire federal government to root out waste, simplifying the tax code for low income and middle class families and eliminate 1 trillion dollars of special interest breaks and subsidies. Then, we must get behind an agenda for the hardworking and families. Make college affordable by getting rid of student debt; help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women; protect Social Security against any cuts in benefits; and ensure more credit and help for small businesses and independent contractors. By increasing taxes for the richest 1 percent, we can give breaks to companies that create American jobs and invest in infrastructure to modernize our country. Let's level the playing field for the middle class again.

The darker colors showed more enthusiasm for the messaging and as you can see, Johnson's bio didn't do much while the Democratic messaging was much more successful:

If you'd like to help Russ Feingold bring this all the way, please consider contributing to his campaign here.

How Fatally Flawed Is The Republican Bench? Let's Look At Wisconsin

Clearly, Trump has crippled Jeb Bush and destroyed Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham and Chris Christie, and severely damaged Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina and Scott Walker. Walker fans, though, insist, despite his sinking poll numbers in crucial Iowa-next-door and nationally, that he can come back. The new poll Monmouth released yesterday was more terrible news for the hapless Walker. It wasn't just that Trump is slaughtering him by a factor of 10, 30-3%, it was that in a head to head match-up, Trump bests him 53-38%. Worst of all, Walker fell from 11% in August to 3% in September, so he isn't even a second-tier candidate any longer. Even Huckabee and Fiorina are beating now (with 4% each)!

Peter Suderman isn't so sure about that. He thinks Walker's descent into the second or third tier may not be reversible. Once at 17% and in second place (nationally)-- wow, that seems like forever ago-- Walker is now tied for 8th place with Huckabee at 5% and has slid from first place in must-win Iowa all the way down to 5th place.

Why is Scott Walker’s campaign faring so poorly?

One reason is Donald Trump, whose hip-shot populism has arguably done more damage to Walker’s campaign than to any other GOP candidate.

But the other reason is Scott Walker.

Walker is running a pandering, cringe-worthy campaign marked by a consistent inability to clearly articulate, and stick to, his own positions.

After drumming up a ton of attention early in the year by giving passionate speeches about his record as governor of Wisconsin, he’s been unable to sustain his early momentum. Instead, he’s allowed himself to be drawn into a series of news cycle traps, and then handled the aftermath poorly, often by denying that he’d made any misstep in the first place.

Most recently, for example, Walker seemed to suggest that he was open to the possibility of a building a wall along the Canadian border in order to stop illegal immigration. He responded by saying that he’d been asked this question by people in New Hampshire, that the people asking the questions had "very legitimate concerns," and that the idea of building a wall would be "a legitimate issue for us to look at."

It’s not exactly a "damn right we should build a wall!" But Walker’s response clearly takes the idea seriously, and pointedly does not rule it out.

Yesterday, however, he claimed that the talk about it was "just a joke" and that he’s "never talked about a wall at the north."

This is the Walker campaign playbook: Say something awkward or ill-advised, watch as the media swarms to cover it, then insist that there was never anything to see.

...It is difficult, if not impossible, to correctly characterize a candidate’s position on an issue when the candidate himself cannot seem to state it with any clarity.

This sort of flip-flopping, what might generously be called policy confusion, has dogged Walker’s campaign essentially from the moment it began. Back in March, Walker, in what was obviously a sop to Iowa voters, reversed his previously clear opposition to federal ethanol subsidies.

A week later, when asked about the change, he denied that he had flip flopped on the issue. Since then, his position appears to have shifted again, with Walker suggesting to the Washington Examiner’s Timothy Carney that he supports ending the ethanol mandate after two years.

...Walker started his run as a candidate with a record of accomplishment who would get things done in Washington. He quickly turned into a candidate who couldn't even describe what it is he'd do.

And in the process, he lost what made his campaign take off in the first place. Walker rose to prominence earlier this year not only on the strength of his governing record, but on his ability to clearly and powerfully articulate that record and why it mattered. The natural extension of this, as a candidate, would have been to take the issues that he was already known for at the state level-- public sector union power, budget deficits, state spending and taxes-- and develop them into a coherent national agenda.

Instead, Walker has pandered to Iowa voters, prioritizing issues like immigration and the nuclear deal with Iran that were never core to his appeal, and let his campaign be drawn into the day-to-day absurdities of the Trump circus.

He has not only shifted his policy positions, he has shifted his character-- and in doing so, he has undermined his essential appeal.

Can he get his campaign back on track? He’s certainly going to try: As Bloomberg Politics reports, Walker is out to reboot his campaign by, among other things, attacking rival Jeb Bush for being insufficiently opposed to the Iran deal, despite previously suggesting that he wouldn’t go on the offensive against his Republican rivals. In other words, he’s going to shift his character again.

Maybe it's just a Wisconsin Republican thing! After all, embattled (like in losing) Senator Ron Johnson doesn't have Trump attacking him at all and he's suffering as much as Walker from foot-in-mouth disease. Straight from his ill-received remarks about how there should be no minimum wage at all-- the man is a fanatic, unrepentant Ayn Rand ideologue-- Johnson seemed to go on the warpath against single mothers this week, joking about what caused an increase in out-of-wedlock births in his state. 

Melissa Baldauff, communications director of the state Democratic Party, responded:

The only joke here is Senator Ron Johnson, who has made a habit of insulting all Wisconsin mothers with his dangerous policies and offensive beliefs, but especially those who raise, educate and provide for their children on their own. Senator Johnson's ridicule of Wisconsin women clearly informs his policy beliefs-- his opposition to equal pay for equal work, his desire to let health insurance companies charge women more than men, and his willingness to let his allies shutdown the government over federal funding for Planned Parenthood. Moms in Wisconsin deserve support and respect from our elected officials, not jokes at our expense from a politician trying to score cheap points with extreme conservatives.

Ron Johnson himself is a joke, which is why he's generally considered the sitting senator most likely to lose his seat in 2016. He seems to take great pleasure in referring toSocial Security as a "legal Ponzi scheme." He he was totally into the GOP attempt to hand Social Security over to Wall Street, wistfully saying, "Well, George Bush tried to do that and remember I said he got slaughtered politically. It went nowhere, which I thought was a shame."

Blue America Endorses Russ Feingold

If there was one race that indicated that the 2010 midterm GOP sweep was a sign of the end times, it was the fact that Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold had been unseated by a Tea Partying cretin by the name of Ron Johnson. The plastics manufacturer bought himself the seat with nearly $9 million of his own fortune and many millions in outside PAC money. One would have thought that a grown man building a statue of Ayn Rand and running on the Atlas Shrugged platform would have put them off, but like all the winning Tea Partiers that year, his dishonest claim that Feingold’s vote for Obamacare would result in everyone over 65 being thrown into Lake Michigan (or something just as bad) meant that he got a shot.

Five years later the state is drowning in regret, with Johnson mired in less than 40% approval, his constituents embarrassed and ashamed.

And they want Russ Feingold back! He is leading Johnson in every poll that’s been done this year, the most recent a PPP Poll that puts him up 9 points. He’s up 14 points among independents and even manages to get Republicans in the double digits. Let’s just say that Wisconsin knows they made a mistake.

Luckily, Feingold is rested and ready to take his seat back. He announced this week, and Blue America is enthusiastically endorsing him as we have in every race he’s been in since we first started. Nothing would be more thrilling to us than to see both Wisconsin progressive stalwarts Russ Feingold and Tammy Baldwin in the US Senate together. And Feingold isn't someone who's ever going to let himself be pushed around by Schumer and other Beltway careerist hacks.

If you’re wondering if Feingold has trimmed his sails in the last five years, wonder no more. The first thing he did after he announced was come out swinging without hesitation against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal:

The economy has definitely been improving, and things like the stock market are doing better. But the economy has to be good for working-class and middle-class families who work every day, send their kids to a school like is in front of my house, and they have to be able to enjoy their lives. That's why you don't pass a trade agreement that ships even more jobs overseas.

In case you still think he might not be the kind of Senator who will join that growing bloc of progressives in the Senate, perhaps this endorsement will put your mind at ease: Elizabeth Warren said:

Just the idea of having Russ by my side in the Senate makes me happy. But I don’t kid myself: We’ve got a really, really big fight in front of us for that to happen.

She’s asking her supporters to get behind Feingold early to help him offset the gusher of cash the right wing money boyz are preparing to throw at Ron Johnson.

We’re asking you to help too.

Russ Feingold was a great Senator and we know he will be a great Senator again. Blue America is proud to endorse him. We hope you’ll join us and give what you can to help put this man of conscience and integrity back in the Senate where he belongs.

Winning Back The Senate-- Will The Corrupt Conservative Establishment Get Out Of The Way?

Reactionary Pennsylvania Blue Dog Chris Carney

Yesterday we took a quick look at the Senate race starting to form up in Florida. Best case scenario: corrupt power-monger Debbie Wasserman Schultz doesn't run (and neither does Charlie Crist) and Alan Grayson beats conservative Democrats Patrick Murphy or Gwen Graham. Grayson in the Senate would be as big a deal as Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders in the Senate. It would be a dream for Florida progressives; in fact, it would be a dream for progressives nationally. But Florida isn't the only state where a significant upgrade is on the table.

Rubio may be awful but Wisconsin lunatic Ron Johnson is probably even worse. And it now looks like Russ Feingold is getting ready to run for that seat, which Johnson won from him-- 1,125,999 (52%) to 1,020,958 (47%) in 2010. Rumors about a rematch have never ceased but now it looks like Feingold has been taking positive steps in that direction-- and in the process saving Wisconsin and the country from New Dem chairman Ron Kind who had been threatening to run if Feingold didn't. Sam Stein, reporting for HuffPo yesterday, broke the story:

Russ Feingold will soon deliver his final speech as United States Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region of Africa, closing one chapter of his career and inevitably sparking speculation about the next.

Many have speculated the former Democratic senator will run for his old seat in 2016, taking on the man who beat him: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Leaving the State Department would be the first logical step in exploring a campaign, as Feingold is heavily restricted from preparing to run for elected office while serving in his current post.

A State Department official declined to say when Feingold’s last day on the job will be. A source confirmed that he is leaving and not simply forgoing speeches from here on out.

There has been persistent chatter that Feingold is serious about running, and national Republicans have been targeting him under the working theory that he will run. The 2016 election, with a presidential race on the ballot, would be far more favorable to his candidacy than the 2010 election, when Republicans made big gains in both chambers.

Feingold went to State in July 2013, after spending 18 years on the Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs, including 4 years as chairman. He’s earned praise for his work in one of the globe’s toughest regions. His final speech will focus on efforts to convince officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo to follow through on their commitments to take action against rebel groups in the country.

At least Wisconsin Democrats are united firmly behind Feingold. In Pennsylvania, conservative Democratic power mongers are screwing up the chances for Democrats to win the seat Pat Toomey took in 2010. In their hatred for frontrunner, Joe Sestak, some are going so far as to push for reactionary, defeated Blue Dog Chris Carney to run. At National Journal yesterday, Alex Roarty asked about Sestak, who he mentioned "has an impressive biography [and] could be the party's Senate majorty-maker... why doesn't anyone want him to run?" By "anyone," he means the grotesquely corrupt Pennsylvania party establishment, not actual Democratic voters. The Establishment worries that Sestak is a maverick; real voters admire him for that. Philadelphia party boss Bob Brady, a congressman, is one of the leaders of the stop Sestak movement.

The concern over Sestak is multifaceted. Party insiders fear he's a loose cannon and doubt he will listen to the advice of political professionals. That's a necessity in what will be a hard-fought race against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, an outspoken fiscal conservative who has effectively shifted to the political center since taking office in 2011.

But there's also a personal animus toward Sestak, known to party leaders as a political loner who defied the Democratic establishment in 2010 when he ran against Arlen Specter. That year, against the advice of party leaders, he challenged the party-switching senator in the primary-- and prevailed, even though President Obama, Gov. Ed Rendell, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee were against him.

Sestak won the primary, but went on to lose narrowly to Toomey. It's a scenario that Democratic leaders worry will happen again if he wins the nomination again next year.

"In my estimation, if Joe Sestak is the nominee in 2016 for U.S. Senate, we will once again lose to Pat Toomey," said T.J. Rooney, who was state Democratic Party chairman when Sestak ran in 2010.

Whether brokers like Brady and Rooney will be successful-- or even whether their efforts are a good idea in the first place-- is a heated topic of debate among many Pennsylvania Democrats. Already, a handful of potentially strong candidates have decided not to run, daunted at the dual challenges of a bruising primary against Sestak and an expensive general election against the well-funded Toomey. Futhermore, some Democratic strategists remain convinced the former House member and Navy admiral is the party's best bet to win next November despite the animosity between him and party leaders-- especially if he can avoid a costly primary.

That's left the party in a vexing situation, with some worried that efforts to torpedo Sestak now will prove feckless and only damage him for next fall.

"What this highlights is there is always a bit of distance between what party leaders want and what voters want," said Dan Fee, a Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant. "This is a guy who, in a terrible year, barely lost. At the very least, he starts ahead."

Democrats have cast a wide net in their search for an alternative. Tester, the newly minted chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has called Allegheny County executive Rich Fitzgerald to gauge his interest in running, according to sources familiar with party recruitment. DSCC officials have met with Ed Pawlowski, the mayor of Allentown who briefly ran for governor in 2014, about a campaign. In Pennsylvania, Democrats have encouraged former Rep. Chris Carney and state Sen. Vincent Hughes to run.

All of these sales pitches came after most of the party establishment was set to rally behind Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro, who represents the wealthy Philadelphia suburbs. Shapiro had indicated he was interested in a campaign, but many insiders no longer believe Shapiro will run.

Fitzgerald, in an interview with National Journal, said he won't run, either. And it's unclear if the others will ultimately launch a candidacy or if they would be a serious challenge to Sestak anyway. But in recent weeks, another intriguing name has surfaced as a potential candidate, someone who until recently was on few people's radars: Seth Williams, the district attorney of Philadelphia.

The 48-year-old, Philadelphia's first black district attorney, told National Journal he's focused on his current job. But he didn't discount the possibility that he might be interested in seeking higher office.

"Who wouldn't want to be a U.S. senator?" Williams said. "I really believe if we want to make the city safer, to prevent crime, we need to create more early-child education opportunities, and increase economic opportunities for individuals and businesses. And being a senator would allow me a great opportunity to let me do all of those things." He added: "I'm a member of the Pennsylvania National Guard, so I take orders well. If they give me a call, I'll listen."

Williams has a profile that could excite some Democrats: A former student leader at Penn State, he's served in the military and tangled with embattled state Attorney General Kathleen Kane over a public-corruption investigation into fellow Democrats. Just this week, he's blasted the state's newly elected Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf for issuing a moratorium on the death penalty in Pennsylvania.

But along with his centrist credentials, Williams could become the first black senator in Pennsylvania's history—which could motivate liberal and African-American voters to turn out in a race many Democrats see as a base election anyway.

Brady, the longtime chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, said Williams has been a "great" district attorney. "I would like to see him to take a good look at it, and if he did, I certainly would be willing to support him," he said.

At the moment, DSCC officials are still mulling over their options. A spokesman acknowledged that Tester called to inquire about other candidates, but indicated that the committee is still open to backing Sestak.

"Senator Tester was simply doing his due diligence in Pennsylvania as he is in all of our states by talking to elected officials and community leaders to solicit advice and get a sense of what's happening on the ground," said Justin Barasky, spokesman for the group. "There are number of great potential candidates in Pennsylvania who can beat Pat Toomey, and that includes Joe Sestak."

Some outside observers coudl be confused as to why Democrats are so reluctant to back Sestak. He won a swing-state suburban Philadelphia seat in 2006, and he defended his support for Obamacare in 2010 by arguing that he wanted every parent to have the same treatment for their children that his daughter received when she battled brain cancer as a toddler.

He lost to Toomey in an otherwise horrific year for Democrats by a mere 2 percentage points, or 75,000 votes, in part because his military experience was a major political asset with blue-collar voters in western Pennsylvania. He ran well ahead of the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee, who lost his race by 9 points.

By all accounts, he's a tireless worker who won his underdog campaign against Specter because he relentlessly courted local Democrats in even the smallest of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. As part of his aggressive outreach, he's already traveled to all of the state's counties again since losing the last election. And his background as an admiral-- particularly one who has been critical of President Obama-- could help at a time when foreign policy might play a large role in the campaign.

"Joe has a lot of that independent streak to him, and that doesn't always play well in party politics," said Kathy Dahlkemper, who served with Sestak in the House and now is the chief executive for Erie County. "But for the voters, it often can play very well." (Dahlkemper, who other Democrats have mentioned would be a strong possible Sestak alternative, said she likes her onetime colleague and won't run for the Senate.)

Democrats also say openly that they don't think they need a top-tier candidate to beat Toomey next year. The party's presidential nominees have each won Pennsylvania since 1992—President Obama won there in 2012 by more than 5 points. In an era in which Senate candidates are increasingly tied to the performance of their party's presidential nominees, that might be enough to defeat Toomey.

"We're probably going to have Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket," said Fitzgerald, the Allegheny County executive. "I just think bodes well for any Democratic nominee to win that seat."

It's also unclear if the Democratic establishment could defeat Sestak even if they found a viable candidate. He defeated Specter in 2010 despite opposition from all corners of the party's apparatus, and it's unlikely any attempt to defeat him in 2016 would include such a comprehensive effort from party leaders.

But concerns run deep within Democratic circles about Sestak's political operation. He declined to work with the Pennsylvania Democratic Party's coordinated campaign in 2010, and many of the staff on his last Senate campaign were members of his family.

"On paper, the guy has a great profile. How often to do you get a retired admiral running for office?" said one Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly. "That's the frustrating part. He's got a great story to tell, a least on paper, but there are serious concerns that he's going to blow a very good opportunity here."

And to some Democrats, it's personal. It's not just that Sestak ran against Specter despite the party's wishes. In 2012, he endorsed a primary challenger to conservative Democratic Rep. Tim Holden, helping now-Rep. Matt Cartwright defeat the well-liked incumbent. He also helped out a write-in challenger to former Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

These have contributed to the impression among some Democrats that Sestak isn't a team player and is unwilling to listen to the advice of others.

"He still thinks he's an admiral. And he thinks everyone should stand up and salute him," said one Democratic officeholder.