Paul Ryan Gives Up On 2 More Orange County Incumbents— Mimi And Dana Pushed Overboard

Maybe it’s too early to congratulation progressive Democrat Katie Porter and New Dem Harley Rouda, but yesterday’s L.A. Times reported that Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) are no longer seen as viable candidates by Ryan’s shady, Adelson-funded SuperPAC. Both have been cut off and left on the side of the road to die, politically speaking. What the Times reported is that the omission of Rohrabacher and Walters from TV advertising by Ryan’s Congressional Leadership Fund “comes at a crucial inflection point in the midterm election when the two parties begin assessing their likely winners and losers.”

Walters and Rohrabacher join a dozen other Republican incumbents who have been left for dead like Barbara Comstock (VA), Mike Coffman (CO), Mike Bishop (MI), Kevin Yoder (KS), Rod Blum (IA)... This is especially odd and unexpected for Walters and Rohrabacher because just last week Ryan’s PAC spent $337,839 savaging Katie Porter and $324,105 smearing Harley Rouda.

Candidates in California, where more than half a dozen seats are being seriously contested, are at particular risk of being cut off financially because of the state’s exorbitant advertising costs. Money saved in the costly Los Angeles media market can be spread over several contests in other states that may be considered more winnable.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which collects multi-million-dollar checks from the Republican Party’s biggest donors, says it is spending nearly $12 million on cable television ads in four House contests in Southern California.

On Friday, the super PAC launched an additional $5-million ad campaign on the main broadcast stations in Los Angeles, the nation’s second most expensive media market after New York.

But the fund’s opening broadcast ads support only two of the four Republican candidates in the Southland’s hardest-fought races: Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale and Young Kim of Fullerton, relegating its Rohrabacher and Walters ads to cable channels with fewer viewers.

The fund is free to add Walters and Rohrabacher to its broadcast lineup later. But millions of Californians have already received their ballots by mail, so immediate advertising is crucial to the fate of the two lawmakers, who are each facing their most serious challenges ever.

Rohrabacher has served 15 terms in Congress and Walters is bidding to win her third term.

Their Democratic challengers are already spending heavily on broadcast television ads. Walters has aired some broadcast commercials too, but Rohrabacher has not.

Nationwide, Democratic candidates have raised far more money than Republicans. As a result, GOP candidates are counting on outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund to come to the rescue.

But those groups must pay as much as quadruple the rates that television stations are required by law to offer to candidates, so the Democratic dollars are buying far more ad time. And those dollars are expanding the political battlefield, pressuring Republican strategists to make hard decisions on where to commit precious resources and which candidates to let go.

“While most people talk constantly about whether [Democratic enthusiasm] will translate into turnout, it’s definitely translating into dollars,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican strategist in Sacramento. “Dollars aren’t decisive always, but it’s always a big advantage.

“When you’re these national committees and you’ve got problems in the suburbs of Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, you’ve got to start making decisions on where you can most effectively spend,” Stutzman said.

For Knight, facing a formidable fundraiser in Democratic challenger Katie Hill, the new boost from the Congressional Leadership Fund came as a big relief. “We’re happy to have the help,” Knight strategist Matt Rexroad said.

Kim, the other Republican getting broadcast ads from the fund, is battling Democrat Gil Cisneros to succeed Rep. Ed Royce of Fullerton.

A Rohrabacher spokesman did not return a call for comment.

Dave Gilliard, a strategist for Walters, warned against reading too much into the latest machinations.

“There’s a lot of head fakes and games of chicken that occur between various outside spending groups in all these congressional districts,” he said. “Everybody’s trying to head-fake the other side to get them to spend money where they don’t need it.”

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee said the GOP’s congressional campaign arm is now broadcasting a spot supporting Walters and attacking her challenger, Katie Porter.

But he declined to say whether the committee would step up its advertising in either Orange County district if the Congressional Leadership Fund keeps Rohrabacher and Walters limited to cable.

The DCCC is doing something very similar. Remember, triage is bi-partisan-- and always favors conservatives (because of who exactly makes the decisions).They sent out a toxic memo Friday urging institutional donors and the suckers who still contribute to them instead of giving directly to candidates to concentrate on the corrupt conservatives the DCCC is pushing and stop giving money to the progressive candidates whose campaigns the DCCC is trying to destroy. They specifically asked donors to earmark money for New Dem candidates who are way ahead, while cutting back on all candidates associated with Bernie and with the policies he espouses and which are popular with Democratic voters. It’s ironic because the only way the anti-Red wave could possible turn into a Blue Wave would be for the DCCC to embrace ideas like Medicare-For-All, free state colleges, $15 minimum wage, Job Guarantee and other progressive ideas. The DCCC and their bag of Republican-lite candidates would rather run on bullshit talking points and conservative policies like PayGo.

The Midterm Field Has Expanded In California-- Thank Ted Lieu

L.A. Times this morning: "Republicans are at risk of a wipeout in California’s six most hotly contested congressional races, a new poll shows-- a result that could radically reshape the state’s political map, with major consequences nationally... The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California’s suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades. That would significantly boost Democrats’ chances of gaining the additional 23 seats they need to win a majority in the House."

The story behind the story, a story beyond the ken of the mass media. After years of abject DCCC failure, the members of the Democratic caucus in the House demanded reforms from Pelosi before agreeing to give her another term as leader. That was in 2016. Reluctantly, Pelosi agreed to giving up the right to pick the DCCC chair and she agreed to allow the election of six DCCC regional vice chairs.

Big victory for reformers, right? Bullshit! When it came time to vote, the only candidate running for DCCC chair was Pelosi's handpicked, bumbling incompetent, Ben Ray Luján. So he was elected. There were no contested battles for the DCCC vice chairmen jobs either. And that has turned out to be a complete disaster. More than half the candidates outside of the West Coast have told me they didn't know their region even had a regional vice chair. One vice chair told me he didn't know why he ran or what the job was and asked me to help him figure out what he was supposed to do. Two years on and he hasn't done a thing. Another resigned a couple of months after being elected and, despite promises from Luján and Pelosi that he would be replaced, there is still no regional vice chair for the Rocky Mountain states and Texas (one of the crucial battlegrounds of 2018, where the unsupervised DCCC staff has fucked up race after race). In the end, two regional vice chairs get a passing grade, Joe Kennedy (B) and Ted Lieu (A+). The rest have been abject, embarrassing failures.

And that brings us back to this morning's L.A. Times story. "With the Nov. 6 midterm election less than five weeks away," wrote David Lauter, "none of the Republicans in the state’s six most competitive races have a lead. The Democrats lead strongly in one race and narrowly in three others, and two are dead heats, the Berkeley IGS Poll shows. Reaction to President Trump appears to drive the results more than any specific issue and, in most cases, more than the individual candidates. 'Trump appears to be the main motivator for voters in these districts,' said Mark DiCamillo, the veteran pollster who directs the Berkeley IGS Poll. 'He’s the central figure.'" Yes, he has that right. Recall, Ted Lieu's comments here at DWT yesterday: "The 2018 midterm elections are primarily about one thing: Donald Trump. November will be a referendum on the job the President and his party are doing.  Americans express their support or displeasure with the governing party. During a time of relatively low unemployment it is unheard of for the party in power to be so despised. But this is where we are-- Trump’s numbers are under water in purple districts across the country. This tells me that Americans are anxious about other things besides the economy. They are concerned about Trump’s temperament and lack of basic decency, the instability he creates around the globe, and his assault on our democratic norms and institutions. Voters are smart. They know that Trump inherited a pretty darn good economy from Barack Obama; and yet what did he do with it? Did he increase workers wages with a big infrastructure package? Did he tackle the student debt crisis? Make healthcare more affordable? Pay down the national debt? Nope. He and his Republican enablers in Congress passed a hugely unpopular tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and continue to undermine the Affordable Care Act. So on top of issues with Trump’s character and temperament, these policies are also very unpopular (and don’t even get me started on Russia)."

Even if he was hampered by the usual DC-directed DCCC staffer-clowns stepping clumsily and ineptly all over recruitment efforts, Lieu has demonstrated how the DCCC could turn into an organization that actually helps elect Democrats-- instead of existing as a pocket-lining disaster that benefits only the Republican Party. Unlike his co-vice chairs, he has raised millions of dollars for his region's candidates, helped the West Coast candidates find their footings for their races and helped create the environment that journalists and pundits marvel over as they write about the West Coast races.

Trump is unpopular across most of the targeted districts-- four covering parts of Orange and San Diego counties, one in Los Angeles County and one centered on Modesto in the Central Valley. That’s especially true among college-educated white voters, whose alienation from the president has turned suburban districts across the country into risky territory for the GOP, and among Latinos and women.

The share of voters who approve of Trump serves as a ceiling for Republican candidates, with none able to surpass Trump’s level by more than a few percentage points. That’s a significant problem for Republicans; in five of the six districts, a majority of likely voters disapprove of the president’s performance in office.

In several districts, the president’s opponents appear more motivated to vote than his supporters, with self-identified liberals and registered Democrats more likely to say that they view this year’s election as more important than previous contests.

Strategies that the Republicans had hoped would bolster their campaigns and make up for the undertow from the president appear to have had limited effect, at best.

A ballot measure to repeal the recent increase in the state’s gas tax, which Republican operatives had hoped would spur turnout on their side, trails in each of the six highly competitive districts. Money for the repeal campaign has largely dried up as Republicans have diverted funds elsewhere.

A national effort by Republicans to portray untested Democratic candidates as unacceptably liberal appears also to have come up short in these California districts. Several Democratic newcomers have maintained favorable images with voters, the poll showed.

As a result of those factors, Republicans lag behind in two of the four congressional districts that cover most of Orange County, long the heartland of California conservatism. The other two contests are dead heats.

A longtime Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale, is narrowly trailing in the only remaining L.A.-centered district the GOP holds.

Farther north, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock, who has survived previous attempts by Democrats to oust him, is behind by a slim margin in his Central Valley race.

The poll’s findings in those districts are generally similar to other recent nonpartisan, publicly released surveys.

In addition to those six districts, the poll also surveyed the races in two Republican-held seats that have not been top Democratic targets but have attracted considerable attention.

Rep. Devin Nunes of Tulare, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has a 53%-45% lead in his race against Andrew Janz, a county prosecutor. Nunes’ role as a defender of Trump has opened a gusher of money for Janz, despite the district’s heavily Republican tilt.

But in another heavily Republican district, Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine has only a 49%-47% lead over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, a result well within the poll’s margin of error.

Let me butt in here for a moment. According to Janz, the DCCC has been unhelpful and even hostile to his efforts to replace Nunes. Lieu has gone out of his way to help Janz even though Luján and Pelosi have refused to even add him to their Red to Blue list. With Lieu's help he has raised more money than any of the DCCC-favored candidates. And Lieu includes him in all his joint candidate events and fund-raising efforts. The DCCC has also ignored-- and viciously undermined-- Ammar Campa-Najjar. Lieu? He's helping him raise money and, in fact, is hosting a major fundraising event for him (and Randy Bryce) in two weeks.

49th District

Democrats have their strongest shot in the 49th District, covering northern San Diego County and the southern Orange County coast up through Dana Point. Mike Levin, the Democrat, has a 55%-41% lead over Republican Diane Harkey, the poll shows. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa decided not to run for reelection in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by just more than 7 points in the 2016 presidential election.

White voters with college degrees make up 45% of the likely voters in this mostly affluent, suburban district, and they back Levin 60% to 35%. Latinos, who make up about 1 in 8 likely voters here, back him by about a 3-1 majority. While men are divided almost evenly between the two, women favor Levin 60% to 34%.

Perhaps most important, likely voters disapprove of how Trump is doing as president 61% to 39%, with more than half, 55%, saying they strongly disapprove. Democrats and liberals were significantly more likely than Republicans and conservatives to say that it was “very important” for them to cast a vote to show their position on Trump.

48th District

Next door to the north, the 48th District, which spans the rest of the Orange County coast from Laguna Niguel to Seal Beach and inland to Westminster and Fountain Valley, is a couple of clicks more conservative. Clinton carried the district by less than 2 percentage points.

There, longtime Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and his Democratic challenger, Harley Rouda, are in a dead heat, each with 48%. Voters also split almost evenly on whether they approve of Trump.

As in the 49th District, college-educated white voters and Latinos back the Democrat, but they make up a slightly smaller share of the electorate: 39% of likely voters in the 48th District are whites with college degrees, and about 1 in 10 are Latino, the poll found.

Rohrabacher also benefits from significant support among Asian Americans, who make up about 1 in 8 of the likely voters. Elsewhere in California, Asian Americans lean heavily toward the Democrats, but this district includes a large, conservative Vietnamese population. Asian American voters overall divide almost equally between Rohrabacher and Rouda, the poll found.

Among whites without a college degree-- the heart of Trump’s voting base-- Rohrabacher leads by nearly 20 points, 58% to 39%, almost twice the size of the Republican’s margin with that group in the 49th District. Women support the Democrat, but men back the Republican by an almost equal margin.

The more Trump-oriented conservatism of the 48th District also surfaces when voters said what issues they care about most. Among Republicans in the 49th District, taxes were the top issue; in the 48th, it was “securing the nation’s borders.”

As the two sides vie to break the Rohrabacher-Rouda tie, the poll found a couple of weak spots.

Latino voters in the district were slightly less likely than others to say they viewed this election as more important than usual. That could hold down the Democratic vote.

Rohrabacher, however, has been dogged by controversy over his friendliness to people connected with Russia’s government. Unsurprisingly, an overwhelming share of Democrats said his contacts with Russian officials made them less likely to vote for Rohrabacher. So did 10% of registered Republicans. Among the small number of undecided voters, 45% said the Russia issue made them less likely to vote for him.

45th District

The 45th District, which covers a swath of Orange County from Irvine east through most of the foothill communities, resembles the 49th in its affluent, college-educated demographics. Clinton carried the district by 5 percentage points.

The Republican incumbent, Rep. Mimi Walters of Laguna Beach, had confidently predicted she could ride out the national tide flowing against her party, but the poll shows her Democratic challenger, UC Irvine law professor Katie Porter, leading 52% to 45%.

This race illustrates the failure so far of GOP strategies. Walters put money into helping get the gas tax repeal measure on the ballot, hoping it would spur GOP turnout. But the poll shows the measure getting only about a third of the vote in the district.

Republicans have also put millions into ads attacking Porter as too far to the left. That effort has had limited impact. By 50% to 38%, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Porter; self-identified moderates view her favorably 52% to 37%. By contrast, 50% of the district’s voters have a negative view of Walters, compared with 45% who see her positively.

39th District

Only a very, very strong wave could drag Cisneros into Congress

The GOP may have had more success with negative ads in the 39th District, which covers much of northern Orange County as well as parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties. Gil Cisneros has battled accusations that he sexually harassed a former Democratic state Assembly candidate, Melissa Fazli. A Republican super PAC allied with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) has run advertisements in the district about the charge.

Fazli withdrew the accusation this week after a meeting with Cisneros, saying it was based on a “misunderstanding.” The super PAC said it would stop running the ads.

The poll can’t directly measure the impact of that issue, but 45% of likely voters have a negative view of Cisneros. That includes 10% of registered Democrats. Just 41% of likely voters view him positively.

Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are locked in a dead heat, the poll showed, with the Democrat holding a nominal 49%-48% edge.

25th District

The demographic picture looks somewhat different in northern Los Angeles County, where Republican Rep. Steve Knight hopes to hold off a challenge from Katie Hill, the 31-year-old former executive director of PATH, a nonprofit organization that provides services to homeless people.

Hill has a slight edge, 50% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.

The district, which covers Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and the Palmdale area, has fewer college-educated white voters than the wealthy Orange County suburbs. But it has a higher share of minority voters.

Latinos make up a bit more than 1 in 5 of the district’s likely voters and support Hill by nearly 2 to 1, the poll found. Hill also benefits from a significant gender gap, with women backing her 53% to 44% over Knight, while men split almost evenly. Just over half of the voters have a strongly negative view of Trump

10th District

Similar factors have put Republican Rep. Jeff Denham’s career at risk as he seeks a fifth term in a district centered on Modesto in the Central Valley, where Latinos make up more than 40% of the district's population, but about a quarter of the likely voters.

Denham’s Democratic opponent, Josh Harder, has the support of roughly two-thirds of Latinos, the poll found.

White voters split 52% for Denham, 43% for Harder. Together, that’s enough to give the Democrat a 50%-45% edge in a district that Clinton narrowly carried in 2016 and where 57% of voters say they disapprove of Trump.

Here on the right is the Blue America "California-- Not Blue Enough" thermometer for 2018. To win Congress, Democratic voters are stuck with whichever candidates the primaries advanced to the general election. There are some really good candidates and some really bad candidates-- and mostly candidates in between. The DCCC put its finger on the scales in many districts to make sure New Dems and "ex"-Republicans from the Republican wing of the party would be the general election candidates. To stop Trump, we are now stuck with a situation where we have to vote for them too. But that isn't what Blue America is about. We're raising money only for the progressive candidates. Sure, vote for the Democrap candidates to help put Trump in check, but only contribute money to the progressives who will actually help solve America's problems when they get into Congress. Isn't that what this is ultimately all about? So, who, precisely, are they? Tap on the thermometer and you'll see.

Russian Hacking Is Very Real-- Who's In Charge Of Directing The U.S. Targeting? Kushner?

Rohrabacher-- a poor fool doomed by his own inept allies?

The Republican gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania, Scott Wagner, joked that the Russian government will help him beat Tom Wolf in November. Polling indicates that that's basically the only way he would win. It's not actually that funny-- especially when Putin-Gate has spawned Putin-Gate II and that the GRU is now targeting conservatives as well as normal candidates. Microsoft claims to have uncovered broadening threats to Democracy. Microsoft president Brad Smith: "It’s clear that democracies around the world are under attack. Foreign entities are launching cyber strikes to disrupt elections and sow discord. Unfortunately, the internet has become an avenue for some governments to steal and leak information, spread disinformation, and probe and potentially attempt to tamper with voting systems. We saw this during the United States general election in 2016, last May during the French presidential election, and now in a broadening way as Americans are preparing for the November midterm elections."

Microsoft's Digital Crimes Unit, he wrote, is on the case. They're making headway against Fancy Bear (aka- APT28 and Strontium). "We’re concerned," he wrote, "that these and other attempts pose security threats to a broadening array of groups connected with both American political parties in the run-up to the 2018 elections." So what's this all mean?

A group affiliated with the Russian government created phony versions of six websites, including some related to the US Senate, with an aim to hack into the computers of people who were tricked into visiting, according to Microsoft.

...The effort by the notorious APT28 hacking group, which has been publicly linked to a Russian intelligence agency and actively interfered in the American 2016 presidential election, underscores the aggressive role Russian operatives are playing ahead of the midterm congressional elections in the US.

APT28 specialises in information warfare or hacking and disinformation operations. "APT" refers to "advanced persistent threat" in cybersecurity circles.

US officials have repeatedly warned that the November vote is a major focus for interference efforts.

Trump and his GOP enablers are purposely leaving the back door open for the Russians, refusing to fund statewide efforts to protect American voting systems and firing top level specialists in cyber-security. A question I've always had-- and will ultimately be answered (or not) by the Mueller investigation-- is who in Trump-world has been helping the Russians with their targeting? I had to laugh when the first reports came out that hackers-- presumably Russians-- interfered in two Orange County Democratic primaries, one to pick a candidate to run in CA-45 against lockstep rubber-stamp Mimi Walters and one to pick a candidate to run against Putin's favorite congressman (and possible Kremlin spy) Dana Rohrabacher in CA-48. Both operations were badly botched.

They were botched because of the targeting. Whomever told the Russians to go after Hans Keirstead in CA-48 and Dave Min in CA-45 were not doing anything to help their Republican opponents. Both Keirstead and Min looked good-- at least inside the Beltway-- on paper. But both turned out-- in real life outside the Beltway-- to be abysmal candidates. Keirstead has a great resume and the DCCC recruited him, but he was a total stiff on the campaign trail and the DCCC abandoned him and leaked opposition research about a sex scandal. Early on, someone clueless inside the Beltway could have easily imagined he would be the strongest candidate against Rohrabacher. As a consequence, they may have blundered into harming Rohrabacher's chances by boosting the much stronger candidate, Harley Rouder, who neat Keirstead narrowly and is likely to beat Rohrabacher in November.

A similar thing happened in CA-45, where a Schumer puppet, Dave Min, may have been perceived in DC (and thereby Moscow) as the stronger Democrat against Walters. But as the campaign unfolded, he turned out to be a miserable politician, way too nasty and vicious to win anything. If the Russian hackers were trying to help Walters, they doomed her by knocking out Min. Instead, Katie Porter, who won the primary, is likely to end Walters' political career in November. Sounds like Kushner-in-law's work. His fingerprints are all over these two collusion operations.


UPDATE: Will Putin Save The GOP From The Voters?

Trump seems to think so. Writing for Yahoo News today, Alexander Nazaryan reported that Trump asked the Senate to block a bill to strengthen the country's defenses against electoral interference. Trump got Roy Blunt (R-MO) to stop the bill in committee yesterday. To me this is way more impeachable than paying off hookers with campaign cash.

The Secure Elections Act, introduced by Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) in December 2017, had co-sponsorship from two of the Senate’s most prominent liberals, Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) as well as from conservative stalwart Lindsey Graham (R-S) and consummate centrist Susan Collins (R-ME).

...As it currently stands, the legislation would grant every state’s top election official security clearance to receive threat information. It would also formalize the practice of information-sharing between the federal government-- in particular, the Department of Homeland Security-- and states regarding threats to electoral infrastructure. A technical advisory board would establish best practices related to election cybersecurity. Perhaps most significantly, the law would mandate that every state conduct a statistically significant audit following a federal election. It would also incentivize the purchase of voting machines that leave a paper record of votes cast, as opposed to some all-electronic models that do not. This would signify a marked shift away from all-electronic voting, which was encouraged with the passage of the Help Americans Vote Act in 2002.

“Paper is not antiquated,” Lankford says. “It’s reliable.”

A paper trail is exactly what Putin and Trump-- and apparently, the Republican Party-- don't want. This is treason.

Who Does Putin Own More Thoroughly, Rohrabacher Or Trumpanzee-- And, No We're Not Discussing Nunes Today

Yesterday, Josh Marshall brought up the June 14, 2016 incidents again-- it can never be brought often frequently enough... the one where GOP House Majority Leader blurts out that Putin is paying off Trump and Rohrabacher... "so help me God." My favorite part of this story-- other than the pays offs themselves-- is how Ryan and McCarthy tried to cover it up and kept changing their stories as the Washington Post closed in on them and finally revealed they had a tape. Oops! Watch the two and a half minute video above. It's amazing! Marshall has an interesting spin. Take a look at this photo he put up

On June 14 2016, the day before the audio tape (which was on June 15), the House Foreign Affairs Committee hosted a hearing on Russia. This is the hearing Amb. McFaul testified at where the Russian government lawyer Natalia Vesilnitskaya attended, she’s front row.

But what’s important here is that the whole reason they held a full committee hearing on Russia (in the midst of the election) was because they needed to stop Rohrabacher from holding a pro-Kremlin subcommittee hearing, for the Europe sub-committee which he chairs.

Remember that Rohrabacher had wanted to show an anti-Magnitsky act movie (the director Andrei Nekrasov is the man with long gray hair over Vesilnitskaya’s right shoulder) and essentially use the hearing as a “show trial” of Bill Browder. According to the Daily Beast, “Ultimately, the hearing was canceled when senior Republicans intervened and agreed to allow a hearing on Russia at the full committee level with a Moscow-sympathetic witness, according to multiple congressional aides.” That’s why Jack Matlock, someone with pro-Russia views, was there as a GOP witness … House aides conceded that he did so, in part, to avoid Rohrabacher staging an event that could have embarrassed the Republican Party-- and Congress.”

We also know that Rohrabacher met with Vesilnitskaya in April 2016 and was given “the film by the Prosecutor General’s office in Moscow, which is run by Yuri Chaika.”

There’s a lot here and a lot to unpack... I wanted to flag this key point: McCarthy made this statement and Ryan pressed to keep it secret not just for some out of the blue reasons. They’d just had the description of Russian behavior from the Ukrainian PM (obviously an interested party). But they’d also spent several days trying to manage an awkward situation with a member of their own caucus who they suspected was either receiving payments from or under some influence of Russia. Indeed, key players in the unfolding conspiracy were on Capitol Hill in that hearing.

Their knowledge of what could be afoot was much deeper, just as they were deciding to make common cause with Trump and begin the process of covering up what they suspected about him.

Also yesterday Jonathan Chait, writing for New York Magazine, asks a pertinent question that half of the country could be asking: Why Does Trump Keep Lying About His Dealings With Russia? It shouldn't surprise anyone, of course-- and certainly doesn't surprise Mueller's team-- that Trump was in on the infamous Trump Tower meeting with the Russians who were offering "dirt" on Hillary. Cohen wasn't offering anything everyone didn't already know. And, going back to my quiz from yesterday, who's the biggest liar in Trumpland?

Trump, who has lied about his dealings with Russia so many times that his word has grown completely worthless, has to resort to the defense of pulling down the value of hostile witnesses to his own level. Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s attorney, told CNN Thursday night, “[Cohen]’s been lying all week, he’s been lying for years.”



Years! Keep in mind that Cohen has been working for Trump until recently. The effort to impugn Cohen’s credibility naturally impeaches Trump’s own credibility. Neither man is especially trustworthy, but the preponderance of circumstantial evidence supports Cohen’s testimony.

One can see the ground already shifting in the defenses of Trump. Now his defenders deny that working cooperatively with Russians to obtain Russian dirt on Clinton amounts to collusion, or that such a thing is bad at all. “Look, I don’t think that it’s bad if campaigns are turning to foreign governments for dirt,” asserts Andrew McCarthy on Fox News, “It’s not collusion. It’s not something that’s impeachable; it’s icky, but that’s what this is.”

But if that’s the case, and Trump faces no legal liability for his secret collaboration with Russia, why didn’t he simply admit it all along? Why tell a series of lies and implicate his subordinates in those lies, exposing them to potential perjury charges? Perhaps because he has more to hide.

It Looks Very Much Like Harley Rouda Will Finally Rid Congress-- And Orange County-- Of Putin's Favorite Congressman

Harley Rouda is one lucky guy-- and not just because his Orange County opponent happens to be Putin's favorite congressman-- just ask Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy-- but because of a brand new campaign hire. The new hire is Jack D'Annibale, formerly communications director for Ted Lieu, who's district is just a few miles up the coast-- on the other side of Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes. D'Annibale just started but he's is up and running in a big way-- best campaign outreach of the week:

Harley Rouda’s Top 5 Moments This Week (A.K.A. Dana Rohrabacher’s NOT Top 5)

Hi, there! Jack D'Annibale, Harley Rouda's Director of Communications here.

It’s been a momentous week for Harley’s campaign to replace Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in California’s 48th Congressional District-- and that’s an understatement.

In case you missed it, below are Harley's Top 5 Moments this week.

1. A+ rated Monmouth poll declares Harley’s campaign for Congress is "neck and neck" with incumbent Dana Rohrabacher

Harley registered 46% support to Rohrabacher’s 43%-- and that’s despite Republicans’ natural registration advantage in the district.

The poll also signaled higher Democratic enthusiasm in the district, which isn’t hard to believe given the other candidate spent his week endorsing the notion of arming children (See Number 2).

Why is Harley leading the race? Rep. Ted Lieu had some ideas:

2. Rohrabacher Endorses Arming Children on Sacha Baron Cohen’s Who Is America?

That’s not a typo.

This week, in footage from Sacha Baron Cohen’s new SHOWTIME show Who Is America?, Rohrabacher advocated for arming kindergarteners with weapons.



Not only was Rohrabacher duped into taking a fake interview with an extremist pro-gun group, Rohrabacher’s shameful testimonial in support of the fictional “Kinderguardians” program horrified just about everyone, including the hosts of The View. They vocalized the nation’s thoughts about Rohrabacher with choice quotes such as…

“This scares the HECK out of me!”-- Sunny Hostin

“I full-heartedly reject [Rohrabacher] on EVERY level.”-- Meghan McCain

And, a personal favorite… “WHY do they keep on electing him?”-- Sunny Hostin

In response to Rohrabacher's troubling comments, Harley said, "Instead of radical, deeply disturbing proposals that make our children less safe, families across the U.S. and in California’s 48th district deserve a Congressmember who will fight tirelessly to see that Capitol Hill finally does something to protect our communities by passing common sense gun safety reforms."


“Dana can try to walk back his comments or call them fake news, but that’s just a sad, cynical move straight out of the tired, politics-as-usual playbook. I am fighting to protect children from gun violence, not put them in the cross-hairs. That’s why I’m running for Congress.”

3. Rohrabacher confirmed as part of Russian Spy Investigation

Surprise, surprise…

On Wednesday, news broke that Dana Rohrabacher met with ally of Vladimir Putin in Russia in August of 2015, matching the account of accused spy Maria Butina’s FBI affidavit.

"The news that Dana Rohrabacher is now entwined in an FBI investigation of an accused 'Russian NRA spy' is deeply disturbing,” said Harley Rouda in a statement.

“The full truth about the connection between Dana's pro-Russian politics, his 2015 trip to Russia, and Moscow's relationship with the National Rifle Association must be known-- that's what every CA-48 family, what every American family, deserves."

What was Rohrabacher’s response to all of this? Panic.

4. “Putin’s Favorite Congressman” one-ups Trump in denying Russian hacking indictments and defending Putin’s right to look out for his interests

What prompted this Harley tweet? Let’s start from the beginning...

10 days before the US Department of Justice indicted 12 Russian military intelligence officers for the infamous hacks that roiled the Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign, Dana Rohrabacher gave an interview to Fox 11’s Elex Michaelson saying the hacks were an “inside job.”

1 disastrous press conference, 2 weeks, and 12 indictments later, Rohrabacher is still denying Russia’s role, while simultaneously defending Putin’s right to “[look] out for the interests of Russia.”

We agree, Dan. Folks in the 48th District should get to know Harley.

5. Last but not least-- Harley out-raises Rohrabacher 5-1 in second quarter fundraising haul

The cherry on top of a great week for Harley?

The fact that Harley outraised Rohrabacher 5 to 1 in the second quarter, raising $1.4 million to Rohrabacher’s $294,000.

And this is just the beginning.

With weeks like these, the momentum behind Harley’s is sure to continue growing at break-neck speed.

I had hardly finished reading D'Annibale's e-mail when the L.A.Times piled on with a Rohrabacher story of their own, this one about the on edge Republican "lashing out" at the press again. Reporters asked him about his involvement with arrested Russian spy Mariia Butina. When a reporter asked him about the meeting he had with the spy he spanned and accused the reporter of trying to divert attention away from something or other. Rohrabacher's office confirmed that he did meet with the spy in his office 3 years ago. The Times reported that "Rohrabacher ended the press conference without answering any questions on the Russia matter or immigration."

Mirror, Mirror On The Wall, Who's The Trumpiest Of Them All?

Do we need more like this in Congress?

Georgia is lousy with white Trumpists-- especially outside the Atlanta Metro, where Hillary did even better than Obama had. Trump won the state's 16 electoral votes 2,089,104 (51.05%) to 1,877,963 (45.89%). Even during the Republican primary, Trump won every single one of Georgia's 159 counties except 4 in the Atlanta Metro plus Clarke County (Athens), all of which were won by Rubio. In the general, 6 rural counties Obama won in 2012-- Baker, Dooly, Early, Peach, Quitman and Twiggs, swung over to Trump. White rural Georgia is still Trump Country, even if his favorability has sunk significantly in the suburbs and among minorities.

Jenna Johnson,writing for the Washington Post, used the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff primary to demonstrate how 2018 candidates are mimicking Trump's worst characteristics on the campaign trail. She started her report by pointed out that "In last week’s debate between Georgia’s Republican candidates for governor, policy was quickly abandoned as Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp lit into one another with a familiar slate of accusations. Kemp called Cagle a liar at least a dozen times. Cagle accused Kemp of conspiring with another Republican to release a recording of an 'out of context' private conversation. Kemp accused Cagle of spreading 'fake news' to Georgians, and Cagle repeatedly refused to apologize for saying what he says."

The two very right-wing candidates argue of who's Trumpier, bicker "over which of them has supported the president for the longest or who would most warmly embrace the Trump agenda" and have both started acting like the repulsive jackass themselves, "using some of his nastiest campaign tactics." But, unfortunately, Georgia isn't the only place this is happening.

In races across the country, other Republican candidates-- and some Democrats-- also are branding their opponents with unflattering nicknames, tweeting in all caps, refusing to apologize for things that politicians once apologized for, being proudly politically incorrect, circulating false information, calling their hometown newspapers “fake news,” releasing damaging information about their opponents and generating controversy to get headlines, even unflattering ones. A Republican candidate for California’s state legislature, copying Trump’s foray against President Barack Obama, has even launched a birther movement, demanding proof that his Democratic opponent is a legal citizen of the United States.

“Trump’s style was such a departure from anything we were used to seeing in a presidential campaign-- his willingness to just go all-out and criticize heavily someone, call them names and engage in schoolyard talk,” said Kerwin Swint, a political science professor at Kennesaw State University in Georgia. “Candidates this year are more willing to go there out of a sense that a precedent has been set or that it works or why not do it in my race.”

But it’s unclear if the tactics will work for many candidates other than Trump, who had a cache with his voters unmatched by most seeking office.

“I don’t like when candidates overly emulate the president. There’s only one Donald Trump,” said Harlan Z. Hill, a conservative consultant working on several midterm races who is also involved with Trump’s 2020 campaign. Hill said he gets frustrated with candidates who use gimmicky nicknames like the president does.

“My biggest problem with this is that it sort of reflects a wider problem in the Republican Party right now, where people are paying lip service to the Trump movement, the America First movement,” he said. “They really don’t understand it, so they’re just emulating the superficial aspects of it. I think voters see right through that.”

But it can be difficult for voters to know whether candidates are emulating Trump out of belief or ambition.

Former soap-opera actor [and gay porn star] Antonio Sabato Jr.-- who spoke at the 2016 Republican National Convention and is now running for Congress in Southern California-- has called for Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), a Trump nemesis, to be locked up because he believes she is a “hustler of hate” who “wants to tar and feather anyone different from her.” In Indiana, Trump-endorsed Senate candidate Mike Braun cast his primary opponents as “Todd the Fraud” and “Luke the Liberal.” Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann has nicknamed a Democratic congressional candidate “Absent Abby,” in hopes of drawing attention to her statehouse attendance record. Meanwhile, the Maryland Democratic Party has nicknamed Republican Gov. Larry Hogan “Hidin’ Hogan” while accusing him of hiding his conservative positions.

Some of the Trumpiest candidates-- the sort who were early supporters of the president’s campaign and decided to run for office themselves-- aren’t making it past the Republican primaries.

In northern Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, state lawmaker Christina Hagan was inspired by Trump’s 2016 victory to run for Congress, but she lost the primary to the Republican establishment’s favorite, former football star Anthony Gonzalez. One of Hagan’s commercials featured the same out-of-context footage of people rushing a Moroccan border that Trump used in one of his anti-illegal immigration campaign commercials. She also tweeted a news article about a suspect with a name similar to her opponent’s who had been charged in connection with what she called an “illegal immigrant drug ring”-- ignoring calls from fellow Republicans who asked her to delete the tweet.

In New York’s 11th Congressional District, which includes Staten Island, former congressman Michael Grimm challenged Republican Rep. Dan Donovan but lost the primary. Grimm labeled his opponent “Desperate Dan” and “Dishonest Dan,” and compared his own felony conviction for federal tax fraud to the ongoing investigation into whether the Trump campaign worked with Russia in 2016, a probe Grimm considers unfair and politically motivated.

The Trumpiest candidate in the Georgia governor’s race was Michael Williams, a state senator who was one of the few elected officials in the country to endorse Trump in 2015. In the final days of the primary campaign, a struggling Williams received a burst of local and national attention for driving a “deportation bus” around the state, sparking a string of protests. It was a stunt that surprised some of Williams’ supporters, who compared it to Trump purposely generating controversy so that he could dominate the news.

Williams finished last in the primary, even losing the county where he lives. Cagle earned the most votes but not enough to become the party’s nominee, so he and Kemp face a runoff on July 24. A poll released by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action News on Friday shows Kemp with a slight lead.

Voter turnout for primaries is often low-- and it’s often even lower for runoff elections, especially those held in the dead of summer. Local strategists and political scientists say that voters who do show up will likely be the party’s most loyal and most conservative members. That explains why Kemp has done so many ads featuring his guns and pickup truck, which he claims in a southern drawl could be used to “round up criminal illegals.” And it explains why Cagle is now catering to the far-right edge of the party.

They're probably the only Republicans in the country who are pissed off that Sacha Baron-Cohen didn't interview them for the upcoming show he did about insane bloodthirsty Republicans advocating arming toddlers in kindergarten. It's worth watching-- released just a couple of days ago, three-and-a-half million people have already watched the YouTube version.

“It’s literally been hilarious to watch” said Seth Weathers, a former state director for Trump who worked on Williams’ campaign, describing what he said was Cagle’s transformation from moderate to Trump mimic.

“Just be who you are,” he said, adding: “No one is Trump.”

Soon after the May primary, Cagle met with one of the Republicans he beat, Clay Tippins, for a frank conversation that he hoped would lead to an endorsement. Tippins recorded the conversation and has been releasing parts of it. First came audio of Cagle saying that a bill providing public funding for private schools was “bad public policy” but he supported it to prevent a rival from gaining financial support from charter school supporters.

Last week, Kemp’s campaign released a snippet it had received from Tippins in which Cagle says that the GOP primary came down to “who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck and who could be the craziest.”

Kemp says that Cagle was trashing conservative voters with the comment, comparing it to Hillary Clinton describing Trump’s supporters as “deplorable.” Cagle’s aides said he was pointing out how crazy Kemp has made this race.

By way of timing, the audio controversy echoed the release in the presidential contest of a 2005 Trump interview with Access Hollywood in which he bragged about grabbing and kissing women without their consent.

Although Trump weathered that crisis, the polls here have tightened. Cagle recorded a new commercial last week that was staged to look like a Trump rally. He stood in front of an American flag, surrounded by supporters, and yelled out his beliefs to a cheering crowd.

“I’ll never apologize for outlawing sanctuary cities or stopping liberals from taking the values that make our country great,” he said, lines familiar to any Trump rally veteran. “The time for conservatives getting kicked around is over.”

Cagle tweeted out the ad with a claim that his opponent was “in cahoots” with the media to push “fake news.”

In the Thursday night debate, many of the buzzwords reflected 2016: “Colluding.” “Lies.” “Never going to apologize.” “Hypocrite.” “Despicable.” “Fake news.” After the debate, it continued as the candidates answered questions from reporters.

“Casey Cagle’s getting to be like Hillary Clinton now,” Kemp said. “He’s gone after my ‘crazy’ supporters that have guns, trucks and chain saws. He’s saying I’m colluding, and he’s saying I’m sexist. That’s the same thing that Hillary Clinton said about Donald Trump. I think Georgians know better.”

Minutes later, Cagle complained with a line that could have come straight from Trump. No one could hear about his record as Georgia’s lieutenant governor, he said, because “the only thing that my opponent can talk about is a tape-- a tape!”

Of course, after Trump's horrifying display of treasonous behavior in Helsinki yesterday-- and with even allies like Fox, seeming to turn on him (albeit not ass-licks like Hannity or Carlson)-- how soon will it be before GOP careerist candidatess start to realize that being the Trumpiest candidate is a hinderance not an attraction? This is how Jonathan Swan and Mike Allen put it at Axios early this morning:

Trump sucking up to Vladamir Putin after the summit in Helsinki yesterday was such an unbelievable, indelible moment that many deflated White House officials didn’t even bother to defend or explain it.

...A former senior White House official, who worked closely with Trump, immediately texted us: “Need a shower.”

One of Trump's own former National Security Council officials texted: “Dude. This is a total [effing] disgrace. The President has lost his mind."

CBS Face the Nation anchor Margaret Brennan, who was in the audience, told AP she was messaging some U.S. officials during the speech who said they were turning off the television.

...Jeremy Bash, former chief of staff at the Pentagon and CIA, told Brian Williams on MSNBC: "Ronald Reagan won the Cold War. Today's Donald Trump lost the post-Cold War for the United States of America."

...Newt Gingrich, one of the most vocal Trump backers among establishment Republicans, tweeted: "President Trump must clarify his statements in Helsinki on our intelligence system and Putin. It is the most serious mistake of his presidency and must be corrected-- immediately."

Republican congressional leaders said they believe the intelligence community.

Drudge, usually a Trump champion, bannered: "PUTIN DOMINATES IN HEL."

Smart Democratic congressional campaigners jumped on this immediately, contrasting themselves with Republicans foolish enough to stand with Trump's treasonous lunacy. Harley Rouda is running for an Orange County seat against Putin's favorite congressman. Rouda's statement to the media last night: "Dana Rohrabacher has once again proven that he's unfit to lead. In interviews today, he has apologized for Vladimir Putin's attack on our democracy during the 2016 Presidential election. He has insulted the patriotic, diligent men and women of the U.S. intelligence community by impugning their work. And finally, he has gone to the radical extreme to suggest that the U.S. has committed crimes far worse than Russia's despicable attack on our election. Dana's actions today may play well in Moscow, but they aren't befitting a member of Congress who swears to serve the Constitution and to defend our nation against all adversaries."

Progressive Democrat JD Scholten makes the point that his opponent, Steve King (R-IA) was Trumpy when Trump was just some "reality" show TV host. "King," he said, "is one person who actually make Trump look tame. He's tweeted at Trump for not going far enough or fast enough on things like immigration and abortion. Steve King was the Donald Trump of the political world even before Trump was elected."

Thomas Guild is the progressive organizer and Berniecrat in Oklahoma City who I thought about immediately when I saw Jenna's Johnson's piece in The Post, since his opponent is such a pure Trumpist. He agrees. "Steve Russell," he told me this morning, "carries water for Trump on virtually every issue. Russell voted for the Trump tax cuts that benefit the wealthy and big corporations while blowing a huge $2.2 trillion hole in the national debt. He ran as a deficit/debt hawk and now has voted to add many trillions to the national debt and exponentially expand deficit spending for as far as the eye can see. I guess we will have to demote Russell to the rank of fiscal tweety bird (apologies to you-- tweety-- I’ve always liked your cartoons). Trump is a nemesis to the LGBTQ community and Russell has offered legislation to explicitly discriminate against individuals and companies doing business identified as LGBTQ. Trump has pursued questionable and racist policies and Russell has dragged his feet on important issues of equity like strengthening voting rights under federal law. Both Russell and Trump would likely break out the champagne and spontaneously jump for joy if Trump’s next SCOTUS appointment casts the deciding vote to overturn the longstanding precedent Roe v Wade, that protects women’s health and privacy and their right to make their own intimate personal decisions free from governmental interference. As they say in the Sooner State if it acts like a duck, and walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it must be a duck! What do you have to say about that Mr. Russell-- Quack! Quack!!"

Last word on the efficacy of trying to be the Trumpiest candidate in town-- Former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman addressed Trumpanzee directly: "Mr President, you should be ashamed. To deny your own country and government in favor of a foreign leader whose country has, for decades, tried to undermine the United States is irrational and dangerous. Please step down, you are not fit to lead this great nation." Still no comments from Casey Cagle or Brian Kemp yet.