Some Good News From Ohio For A Change

Ohio is usually the last place to look for anything progressive happen-- except when it does. The Democratic Party passed away years ago and it's entirely up to individual candidates, like Sherrod Brown, to win elections. The Cincinnati Enquirer reported yesterday that a poll they did with Suffolk University has some good news for Democrats, at least at the top of the ticket. Even there Trump's toxicity is weighting down GOP candidates. Democrat Richard Cordray is leading much better know Republican Mike DeWine in the governor's race, 43% to 36% and in the Senate race incumbent Sherrod Brown is ahead of Congressman (and billionaire) Jim Renacci 53% to 37% among likely voters. Trump endorsed Renacci in the primary but that didn't help much.

The state has a PVI of R+3 but Hillary and her status quo message never had a shot in Ohio and she gave up on the state early. Trump beat her 2,841,005 (51.69%) to 2,394,164 (43.56%). She won only 8 counties of Ohio's 88. Obama won the state both times he ran.

Trumpanzee's primary endorsement, reported the Enquirer, "might hurt Renacci in the general. Love or hate of Trump is the most important issue among those polled in how they’ll vote in the Senate. 

In the new poll, 49 percent of respondents said they wanted their vote in November "to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation." Only 28 percent said they were voting to support Trump's leadership. Nineteen percent said their vote didn't have much to do with Trump.

Those voting to oppose Trump and his policies showed higher levels of interest in the governor's race. Nearly three-fourths of those voters said they were "extremely" or "very" interested in the governor's race. That figure was lower-- about 60 percent-- among people who wanted to support Trump and among people who said their vote wasn't related to Trump.

In other words, some Trump voters aren't lining up to defend the Republican Party from activists bent on fighting back.

So Ohio may see a different electorate than in 2016. For instance, people of color's enthusiasm for voting meant they made up a higher percentage of respondents in the poll than in the 2016 election. The difference was a couple of percentage points, but enough to make a difference in a tight race.

In fact, if the turnout in 2016 had been identical to that indicated in this poll, Democrat Hillary Clinton would have won Ohio by 5 points over Trump, according to respondents' recollections of their 2016 votes. Instead, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points.

“They are more motivated to vote,” said Paleologos, the pollster, of people of color in 2018. And Trump supporters are less motivated.

“If the rest of the state’s turnout is lower, then that means that the people who are anti-Trump right now are going to drive the outcome,” he said.

...The poll's results also could reflect DeWine's status after a bruising GOP primary, in which DeWine survived nasty attacks from Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor.

Taylor attacked DeWine from the right. For instance, she said she would scrap Medicaid expansion, one of the signature achievements of her boss, Gov. John Kasich.

DeWine said he would push to keep the expansion because of the addiction treatment provided under it, but he would seek to overhaul it. Additional specifics were few.

In the poll, health care was the second-most important issue to voters, behind the economy. The next governor should keep Medicaid expansion in Ohio, 77 percent of respondents said. Cordray has vowed to do so.

Another poll of the Ohio statewide races was released yesterday, this one by Quinnipiac. It also showed Cordray and Brown leading DeWine and Renacci. Cordray's ahead 42% to 40%, too close to call. But Brown is leading Renacci 51-34%. Again, it's about Trump's toxicity. Ohio voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing 54 to 43%.

The moribund Ohio Democratic Party isn't helping any of the down-ticket candidates and I don't see any of the congressional districts flipping from red to blue. The best possibilities-- all real long shots-- are OH-01, where Aftab Pureval could displace Steve Chabot, OH-07, where Ken Harbaugh could beat Bob Gibbs, OH-10 and OH-15 where a mega-wave could carry, respectively, Theresa Gasper and Rick Neal to wins over Michael Turner and Steve Stivers. But, like I said, they would really need a mega-wave-- tsunami-plus. Unless you have money to burn, don't bet on any of them though. You can contribute to Sherrod Brown's campaign by tapping on the 2018 Senate thermometer on the right. If you decide to, please also drop something in the box for Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin who the Republicans are aiming all their heaviest artillery against.

By the way, earlier today, Elizabeth Warren endorsed Rick Neal, the progressive Democrat running for the Columbus-area seat occupied by Steve Stivers, head of the NRCC. I hope she has as much success with him as she's had with Katie Porter in Orange County. "Rick Neal is a fighter," she wrote. "He’s an outspoken advocate for health care, equality, and working families in Ohio, and he knows the meaning of service. He’s exactly the kind of person we need in Congress, and that’s why I’m proud to support his campaign... I believe in Rick-- and know that he will be a tireless advocate for working families in Ohio."

Meet Ohio Congressional Candidate Rick Neal-- A Guest Post By Former Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy

Before the Republicans in the Ohio state legislature gerrymandered Mary Jo Kilroy out of a congressional seat, she was a Blue America-backed progressive in the 15th district. Recently she introduced us to the incredible video above and to the Rick Neal for Congress campaign. By design, the district-- which has a PVI of R+7-- is no piece of cake for a Democrat. It’s one of those districts where, in 2016, Trump did better than Romney and Hillary did worse than Obama. Trump beat her 55.3% to 39.9% there and the DCCC is ignoring the district entirely. Mary Jo doesn’t think the district should be ignored and we asked her to write a guest post telling DWT readers about Rick, who seems to us like an extraordinary candidate.


Rick Neal For OH-15
-by Mary Jo Kilroy

I used to represent Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, so I want to introduce you to a candidate for the seat that I once held.  I am taking a proprietary interest in this seat, which even in the face of a “blue wave” will be a tough battle, so I want someone who is progressive, smart, and who will put in the necessary hard work to win.  I think Rick Neal fills that description.

Rick is new to electoral politics, in his first run for office, but he is not new to taking action. He is a former Peace Corps volunteer and international aid worker. In 2014, when the ebola virus was claiming lives, Rick was compelled to travel to Liberia with the International Rescue Committee to build clinics to take care of people. Before going, he and his husband discussed his plan with family and friends, and met with the parents and teachers at the school their daughters attended, answering their questions and addressing their possible fears by letting them know that on his return, he would voluntarily go into isolation for 21 days.

What compelled him to do this? He saw a crisis, he knew he could help people in need, and so he did.

Now he sees a crisis affecting this country, and believes he can help as a Member of Congress. One huge issue affecting our state of Ohio is the scourge of opiate addiction that is claiming lives here at home. As a graduate of a public health program at UNC-Chapel Hill, Rick brings a community-based health perspective to the fight. “our representatives in Washington are more interested in protecting drug companies than putting an end to the opioid epidemic. We need to work together to find real solutions to this problem— starting with treatment programs proven to save lives and get people back their feet. Addiction doesn’t discriminate against young or old, rich or poor.”

Rick has a lot to say on health care as well, believing that the next step after the Affordable Care Act is to move to a “Medicare for All” type of system. “Our health care system is not working the way it is supposed to” he said. “Too many people rely on the Emergency Room for care, or face bankruptcy to pay for a serious health care issue. We have to expand Medicare as a way of ensuring everyone has the health care they need.”

He also wants families to have the resources they need to provide for themselves, supporting an increase in the current federal minimum wage (currently $7.25 an hour), something that was last done in 2009, and vowing to “end the threats to unionized labor championed by Republicans.” “We have to tackle inequality and the insufficient value of work head on.”

He sees investments in infrastructure, including infrastructure that moves us to greater use of renewable energy, as well as investments in our youth, as a priority. “We can create an economic environment to encourage job creation,” but doesn’t see the recent “trillion-dollar tax scam, paid for by the middle class,” as the way to do so. To improve our economy and job growth, he said, “we need representative in Congress willing to put in the hard work” and “serve the people not the special interests.”

“I have always tried to live my politics,” Rick said. “When I joined the Peace Corps, I quickly realized that my role was to take the resources available to me as Westerner-- my education and training, my connections with financial resources and technical expertise-- and put those at the service of the people I was working with, to facilitate change at the speed and in the direction that they felt was right for them and their communities. I gained more experience and got a chance to practice this, every day in my community public health program at UNC-Chapel Hill, and then tried to apply it in some very tough circumstances back overseas working with displaced communities in humanitarian crises.”

Rick has learned a lot from his humanitarian work, including that it is “easy to talk about what you want to do, and talk about what the issues are, or talk about what the priorities are. In the humanitarian field, all that matters is that you save lives and that you get people back on the path to recovery. The action is what matters.”

Steve Stivers, Rick’s opponent, is well-known for telling people what they want to hear, but when you pay attention to how he acts, you find he is the epitome of a congressman who serves corporate special interests. Stivers is a top fundraiser for  Congressional Republicans, and the policies he supports are those that his donors-- Wall St. and the oil industry-- support. Getting big money out of politics means we need to take this seat back from Members of Congress like Steve Stivers.

Rick Neal, someone who tackled a crisis like ebola is the candidate to take on this job as well. Check out this video-- and let Rick now what you think. www.rickneal.com