Better To Declare Victory After Victory Has Come

He's young, he's probably gay and probably a murderer and definitely a fascist... but he's young

Reid Wilson isn't exactly who I look to for good electoral news for progressives, but his post at The Hill yesterday, Wins by young progressives start reshaping establishment, was almost suspiciously, if not downright prematurely, optimistic. "The left wing of the Democratic Party may have lost the war over the party's presidential nomination," he wrote, "but its members are quietly winning battles in states and cities across the country. Progressive candidates have knocked off incumbent officeholders in places such as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C., and New Mexico in recent weeks in elections that are marking the end of an older generation of the political establishment. Those elections may be a preview of the rest of the primary season, when long-serving Democrats find themselves the targets of well-organized campaigns to oust them." Hmmmm... key words: "may be."

There were a few legitimate big wins of national import (Marie Newman in Chicagoland and Kara Eastman in Omaha)-- and, yes there were some nice local races too, where progressives won but he seems to be hung up on "young" as a end-all for, perhaps forgetting that the youngest members of Congress when they were elected included not just AOC, but far right extremists like Patrick McHenry (R-NC), Aaron Schock (R-IL) and Matt Gaetz (R-FL), as well as shitbag ConservaDems Harold Ford, Jr. (Blue Dog-TN) and Patrick Murphy (New Dem-FL). In this argument, I'm afraid, "age" is over-rated.

At least four Pennsylvania Democratic state legislators lost their seats in last week's primary. Two of the winning challengers in the Philadelphia area scored endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). In Pittsburgh, Emily Kinkead, a progressive making her first run for office, ousted state Rep. Adam Ravenstahl (D), the brother of the city's former mayor.

Two other Democratic incumbents trail their rivals by margins narrow enough that they could be reversed as more ballots are counted.

"I consider myself to be a proud progressive," said Amanda Cappelletti, who beat a sitting state senator to claim the Democratic nomination in a Philadelphia-area district. "I wanted to figure out the best way that I could serve and help people, and this would be a good opportunity to use my skills."

She beat Daylin Leach, the Pennsylvania legislature's "liberal lion" and I'll be happy to see if she's half as good a state senator as Leach has been. I hope so. Because his legislative record is pretty amazing.

In New Mexico, insurgent progressive challengers ousted five moderate and conservative Democrats, including state Senate President Pro Tem Mary Kay Papen and state Sen. John Arthur Smith, the chairman of the Finance Committee.

...Advances in technology have allowed progressive candidates to make inroads in big cities once dominated by party bosses, said Waleed Shahid, who directs communications for Justice Democrats, a progressive group that backs insurgent challengers.

"The internet is defeating these political machines. Where 20 years ago you would have to have the blessing of local party leaders just to get on the ballot, now you can have a good social media operation and leapfrog the party leadership and establishment networks," Shahid said.

This year, another progressive, marketing consultant Marie Newman ousted Rep. Dan Lipinski in Illinois's Democratic primary in March.

More surprises are likely ahead. After Ocasio-Cortez upset Rep. Joe Crowley (D) in 2018, progressives have made a point to go after Engel and Clarke.

He wrote that José Serrano (D-NY) and Nita Lowey (D-NY) "opted to retire rather than face what would have been almost certain primary challenges," without mentioning that Serrano is one of the most far left members of Congress and may well be followed by either a Republican pretending to be a Democrat or a garden variety middle-of-the-road Democratic hack. There's also a chance a real progressive like Serrano could win, say Tomas Ramos-- but that will be tough. Lowey's time was up and if Mondaire Jones wins a crowded primary, there will be a real improvement... but that will be no cakewalk either.

"In September, Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) will face off against Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse (D), who has proved an adept fundraiser," wrote. Fingers crossed. "The primary challenges are coming as a younger, more progressive millennial generation becomes a potent force in politics." I'm certain Wilson doesn't pay attention at all, but progressive stars who lost so far are almost too numerous to mention, from Jessica Cisneros (TX), Rachel Ventura (IL), Kim Williams (CA), Mark Gamba (OR), Jennifer Christie (IN) and Jim Harper (IN) to Mckayla Wilkes (MD), Nabilah Islam (GA), Michael Owens (GA), Robert Emmons (IL) and Tom Winter (MT), all of whom lost to much more conservative candidates. And that doesn't include the dozens of sad cases who thought copying Bernie's platform, finding a couple of like-minded idealists and then playing on social media all day meant you could win a congressional seat.

"Though Ocasio-Cortez has become the symbol of the rising generation of progressive officeholders," wrote Wilson, "the movement is increasingly looking to down-ballot races both as an avenue for making policy changes at the state level and as a way to build a bench for the future. 'You can feel a change in the focus that grassroots progressives have put on some of these local races, really since 2016. I think part of it came from a recognizing, waking up from the Obama years just how much Democrats had lost,' said Neil Sroka, who directs communications for Democracy for America and also won a city council seat himself. 'The Trump moment exposed the ways in which cities and local offices could be a real buttress against a government that was 100 percent in the control of right-wing Republicans. I think that there has been a real awakening.'"

I don't discount this-- and entirely encourage it all I can-- but Congress is where power to stand up to conservatives like Trump and Biden rests, not on the city council. Yesterday, the American Prospect published an essay by Alexander Sammon, Chuck Schumer’s Very Bad Week-- Corporate Democrats for Senate limp to the finish line. I doubt Schumer is crying; he won his races and we won't hear him whining unless his milquetoast establishment picks lose in Colorado and Kentucky. But so far, he's won them all with the worst slate of Democrats I can ever remember up for Senate. Sammon correctly stated that "Early on in this election cycle, things were going great for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. In nearly every contested Democratic Senate primary, Schumer and his caucus’s campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), got the desired result, either clearing the field of competitors to his hand-picked preference before voting even began or winning comfortable victories. Bloodless centrist Cal Cunningham triumphed in North Carolina over progressive State Sen. Erica Smith to take on shaky Republican Sen. Thom Tillis; Smith had been leading in polls before Schumer made his endorsement. Real-estate developer Theresa Greenfield triumphed easily in Iowa; the Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC spent $6.7 million on her behalf in the primary. Schumer selection M.J. Hegar also cruised over multiple progressives in the Senate primary to take on Republican John Cornyn, though she still must finish the job in a run-off in July. Other races in Arizona and New Mexico saw the Schumer-backed candidate chase out all competition. When Schumer stamps a candidate with DSCC approval, he also marshals big money in support of them. In other words, Schumer doesn’t just get what he wants because he’s good at picking moderates with broad appeal. He just picks people who are inoffensive to the DSCC donor base, and then uses their money to stack the deck in their favor. Bob Moser documented this highly dubious and clearly anti-democratic practice, in great detail, in a recent issue of The Prospect." And now for the speculation and hopefulness we share with Sammon:

[S]everal of Schumer’s high-profile picks are starting to falter, rapidly losing ground to underfunded progressive upstarts just ahead of election day.

The most prominent instance comes from Kentucky, where Schumer intervened in the primary early. Back in February 2019, Schumer was already actively stumping for former fighter pilot Amy McGrath to challenge Mitch McConnell, the case for her candidacy predicated almost entirely on a popular TV ad last cycle that propelled her within 3 points of winning a swing House seat in Lexington.

McGrath is exactly the sort of moderate that only a Schumer could love. Her sales pitch so far has been her willingness to work with Trump once in office, which, if you believe in the Joe Biden campaign, or the Democratic Party at all, is an extremely confounding message. Of course, thanks to Schumer’s minting, McGrath was the immediate beneficiary of an incomparable torrent of cash, which initially prevented any meaningful primary challenge. She’s raised over $41 million, and spent $21.8 million to date. But last November, Charles Booker, a first-term progressive state senator from Louisville, announced a late bid for the seat.

Booker, despite having spent barely $500,000, is now ascending, racking up endorsements from national politicians like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as well as popular eastern Kentucky sports radio host Matt Jones (an important figure in the state who almost ran for the seat himself) and the Louisville Courier-Journal, Kentucky’s highest circulation newspaper. Despite McGrath outspending him an astonishing 40 to 1, the race is somehow closer than ever, with recent polling showing him within a handful of percentage points. That certainly doesn’t bode well for McGrath’s attractiveness as a candidate.

Booker has assumed newfound national prominence with his participation in Louisville’s Black Lives Matter demonstrations, repeatedly taking to the streets to protest the death of Breonna Taylor at the hands of Louisville PD, and Louisville restaurateur David McAtee by the Kentucky National Guard. McGrath, meanwhile, hasn’t turned out to a single protest. She’s instead training the DSCC’s funding firehose on television buys, hoping to extinguish the flames that are lapping up her campaign ahead of this month’s primary.

Meanwhile, another Schumer pick, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, finds himself embroiled in a new corruption scandal. A local news investigation just uncovered millions of dollars in off-the-books donations from corporations and private foundations to Hickenlooper’s office, dating back almost two decades. The startling revelation shows that during his eight years as governor, Hickenlooper expanded the “public-private partnership” program, which took corporate donations and used them to fund departments and positions in his administration with no oversight.

The donations ran in the millions of dollars during his two terms as governor. Among the biggest donors was Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, one of Colorado’s biggest fracking operators. In one instance in 2017, the company donated $25,000 to the governor’s office, just days after a deadly explosion in the state, caused by a leaky underground pipeline owned by the company. Over the course of four years, Anadarko gave Hickenlooper’s office more than $330,000, money that was then used for government activities, but of which there is little accounting.

Hickenlooper, who already bears the handle “Frackenlooper” for his role in expanding fracking as governor, is taking on Andrew Romanoff for the chance to do battle with Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in November, in what is almost certainly the most flippable Senate seat in the country. Hickenlooper, briefly a presidential candidate, was considered a prized recruit when Schumer talked him into running for Senate. (He’d previously said, “I’m not cut out to be a senator.”) But his reputation on environmental issues, along with this new corruption scandal, has imperiled his chances. Romanoff, former speaker of the Colorado State House, won April’s Democratic Assembly vote in dominant fashion, securing top-line designation in the June 30 primary. Schumer and the DSCC knew that Hickenlooper was weak as far back as August, when they began pressuring consultants from at least five firms not to work with Romanoff, according to The Intercept. If Hickenlooper pulls it off, it will only be because of the fundraising advantage bestowed on him by the DSCC.

Want to help? The 2020 non-Schumer Senate candidates thermometer is just above. Click on it and if you see a name you like, chip in a few dollars. And the House candidates still in there, still fighting to make the House Democratic more-- not less-- progressive, which is clearly the intention of Blue Dog Cheri Bustos and the DCCC. On the right is the 2020 Blue America congressional thermometer. Here's where you'll find the candidates like Jamaal Bowman (NY), Keeda Haynes (TN), Shan Chowdhury (NY), Eva Putzova (AZ), Tom Guild (OK), Hector Oseguera (NJ), Robin Wilt (NY) still working to replace establishment hacks and conservatives in primaries-- as well as progressives like Marie Newman (IL), Jon Hoadley (MI), Audrey Denney (CA), Cathy Kunkel (WV), Kara Eastman (NE), Julie Oliver (TX), and Liam O'Mara (CA), who have already won their primaries and are up against right-wing Republican incumbents.

THE 10 Counties To Watch In 2020? Not Necessarily

Yesterday Reid Wilson published an early morning post at The Hill delineating "the 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election." I suspect the editor of click-getting came up with the foolish and misleading title. Although Wilson wrote that "Interviews with two dozen strategists, political scientists and observers show the 10 counties across the country that will determine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election," what his piece actually is about is "counties to watch that are indicative of trends in each state. That's a very different thing.

Surprisingly though, Reid emphasized how each county voted in 2016, but not in 2018, after two years of Trump. Let's start where he did, with Erie County, Pennsylvania. This one really is a pivotal county, but voters there turned on Trump after two years. Reid wrote that "In 2008 and 2012, Obama won Erie County by double-digit margins" but in 2016 Trump beat Hillary there by 1.6 percentage points. In 2018, Erie County went blue again. In the Senate race, Bob Casey (D) beat Lou Barletta (R) 58.4% to 40.0% and in the gubernatorial race, Tom Wolf (D) creamed Scott Wagner (R) 59.9% to 38.7%. And in the congressional race, Erie County is the biggest county-- by far-- in the 16th congressional district. The incumbent, Mike Kelly, was reelected 51.6% to 47.3% over a weak Blue Dog candidate, Ron DiNicola. But that was the district-wide number. Erie County voted blue in a big way-- D+20! DiNicola lost Butler, Mercer, Lawrence and Crawford counties.

The Wisconsin county he picked to watch was Sauk County which "has predicted the winner of Wisconsin’s electoral votes in nine of the past 10 presidential elections. Trump was the first Republican to carry the county in 28 years, when he won it by just 109 votes out of about 30,000 cast." As far as I can tell, he has his numbers wrong. Hillary beat Trump in Sauk County 16,050 (47.4) to 15,871 (46.9%)-- 179 votes. That's way too close in a county where Obama kicked both McCain's and Romney's asses. And, in fact, the primary tells us more about where Sauk County voters were:

• Bernie: 1,093 (56.9%)
• Hillary: 817 (42.5%

And last year, Sauk County was safely blue. In the Senate race, Tammy Baldwin (D) beat Leah Vukmir (R) 58.8% to 41.2%-- considerably better than Baldwin's 55.4 to 44.6% statewide win. And Sauk helped Tony Evers (D) oust Gov. Scott Walker in a much closer gubernatorial contest-- though not close in Sauk. Evers beat Walker 54.0% to 43.6%. There's no congressional race to look at because Sauk is entirely within the second district and the GOP didn't bother putting up a candidate against Mark Pocan.

In Michigan, Reid picked Muskegon County as "indicative of the statewide vote in the next election." It was very close in 2016. Again, a district where Obama did well both times, Hillary won it by the skin of her teeth-- 47.5% to 46.6%. Had Bernie run, he would have trounced Trump in 2016. How do I know? Look at the primary results there:

• Bernie- 10,062
• Hillary- 8,220
• Ted Cruz- 6,478
• Trumpanzee- 5,757

If Muskegon is going to be indicative of Michigan in 2020, let's look at 2018. Debbie Stabenow (D) beat John James (R) in the Senate race statewide 52.3% to 45.8%. Muskegon County was slightly worse for James. Stabenow beat him 52.3% to 44.8%. In the gubernatorial race, Gretchen Whitmer (D) beat Bill Schuette by 10 points-- (R) 50.3% to 40.3%. Bill Huizenga (R) was reelected to Congress but he lost Muskegon county, which performed at a nice strong D+8 level. This cycle, the Democrats have a stronger candidate, progressive pastor Bryan Berghoef, who will do even better in Muskegon (and win in Kent County as well).

Wilson's last midwest county is Washington in Minnesota. "Washington County voted twice for George W. Bush, then twice for Obama," he wrote. "Clinton carried Washington County by just 1.8 percentage points, almost exactly the margin by which she carried Minnesota as a whole." In 2016 Hillary beat Trump in Washington Co. 67,086 (47.0%) to 64,429 (45.1%). Not bad-- but Bernie would have done better. The county is split between the 2nd and 4th congressional districts. Bernie beat Hillary in both districts-- and also outpolled Trump in both.

MN-02

• Bernie- 11,433
• Hillary- 8,221
• Rubio- 6,071
• Cruz- 4,836
• Trumpanzee- 3,333

MN-04

• Bernie- 17,164
• Hillary- 12,346
• Rubio- 5,493
• Cruz- 2,992
• Trumpanzee- 2,114

Something tells me if Washington County is going to make or break the 2020 Trump campaign, he might as well saves money and put it into Florida. In 2018, Democrats won Washington County comfortably in the 2 Senate races and the gubernatorial. Amy Klobuchar routed Jim Newberger 60.3% to 36.7% and in the other Senate race the less well-known Tina Smith beat Karin Housley 50.8% to 45.0%. In the open gubernatorial race Tim Walz (D) beat Jeff Johnson (R) 52.2% to 44.4%. As for the two congressional seats, in the 2nd district, Washington County helped Angie Craig (D) oust Jason Lewis by giving her a solid D+8 performance. And in the 4th district, the county came through for incumbent Betty McCollum with an even stronger D+13 performance.

Last week we took a look at Maricopa County, Arizona ourselves and predicted it would be one of the hot focal points for 2020. Wilson notes that "Arizona is the most urbanized state in the Republican column, and its most urban county, Maricopa, shows signs of inching left." Trump won the county 49.1% to 45.7% in 2016 but last year Democrats won the Senate race there (51.0% to 46.8%) while losing the gubernatorial race (55.9% to 42.1%). With Trump and Joe Arpaio on the ticket next year, voters from both parties will be super-motivated.

Tarrant County (Forth Worth) used to be very blue but turned very red and is now demographically inching back towards the Democrats. Trump beat Hillary 345,683 (52.2%) to288,001 (43.5%) but last year Beto narrowly won the county, beating Ted Cruz 313,497 (49.9%) to 309,189 (49.2%). On the same day Greg Abbott was reelected governor there (against Lupe Valdez) 340,404 (54.4%) to 273,814 (43.7%). Tarrant County was very gerrymandered up by the Republicans in the state legislature, but demographics have been catching up to them there too. It's the biggest county in TX-06, which was won by Ron Wright (R), but Tarrant went for Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez with a nice D+5 performance. It's also the biggest part of TX-12, which reelected Kay Granger (R) who trounced a Democratic sacrificial lamb, Vanessa Adia, the Tarrant part of the district giving Granger an R+19 win. TX-24 has a big slice of Tarrant and it was the only part of the district that went for Kenny Marchant last cycle. The Dallas and Denton counties part of the district both went blue and Marchant read the writing on the wall and announced his retirement. TX-25 has a tony slice of Tarrant but not enough to save Roger Williams from a blue tsunami expected in Travis County this year. Williams is hanging on but if he wins in 2020, it could be his last win. Michael Burgess' TX-26 has a somewhat bigger and redder piece of Tarrant but Tarrant is much more important in TX-33, where it gave Democrat Marc Veasey his biggest margin (D+59).

North Carolina is shaping up to be a major swing state for 2020 and Wilson picked New Hanover County where Wilmington is turning the county blue. Trump beat Hilary there-- by the skin of his teeth. In 2016 it was virtually a 3-way primary win:

• Trump- 12,631
• Bernie- 12,276
• Hillary- 12,240

In November Trump beat Hillary 54,665 (50.3%) to 50,219 (46.2%). But two years in, voters expressed buyers' remorse. Although David Rouzer held onto his House seat, he lost the New Hanover part of the district to Kyle Horton (D) 46,155 (51.91%) to 41,286 (46.44%)-- a D+5 performance.

Georgia is also shaping to be less of a sure thing for Republicans and Wilson picked Peach County, whose "residents are about half white and 45 percent African American. About half live in its cities, and half live in rural areas." It's a pivot county that "voted for Obama twice and Trump in 2016. In 2016, Trump won the county with 5,405 votes (50.5%) to 5,083 (47.5%). Secretary of State (now Governor) Brian Kemp monkeyed with the voting machines so heavily last year that the election results for 2018 are nearly worthless, in the gubernatorial race. The county falls within GA-02, Sanford Bishop's district, which he won 60-40, taking Peach County, but very narrowly, basically a dead heat.

Wilson selected 2 New England counties to watch as well, one in New Hampshire and one in Maine. Hillsborough County is the largest in New Hampshire and Hillary performed relatively poorly there. In 2016 the primary belonged to Bernie:

• Bernie- 38,648
• Trump- 28,981
• Hillary- 28,099
• Kasich- 12,504

In November, Hillary underperformed. Trump took the county with 100,013 votes (47.4%) to her 99,589 (47.2%). Last year: more buyers remorse. Wilson noted that "The 2018 midterm elections wiped out many Hillsborough members of the state legislature; today, Democrats hold two-thirds of the state House districts in the county." But Chris Sununu (R) beat Molly Kelly (D) in the gubernatorial race in Hillsborough County, 54.1% to 44.4%.The county is split between the two congressional districts. In NH-01 the open seat went to Democrat Chris Pappas with a strong D+13 performance in Hillsborough and in NH-02 the county also performed well for Democratic incumbent Ann Kuster (D+8). In fact the fact that almost every county went to the Democrats-- exceptions being Belknap County (split between the 2 districts) and the part of Rockingham in NH-02-- shows huge voter dissatisfaction with Trump. Anyone who thinks he has a shot in New Hampshire next year, needs to take punditry 101 over again.

Lincoln County is north of Portland on the coast and this is not going to be a swing county in 2020, no matter how many pundits claim it is. In 2016 Bernie wiped out Hillary 67% to 33%. Hillary won statewide but lost the ME-02 congressional district and its one electoral vote. In the primary, Bernie had beaten her in every county. In the general Lincoln was close but Hillary won 10,241 (47.8%) to 9,727 (45.4%). In 2018, Lincoln rejected the GOP completely. Angus King beat (I) Republican Eric Brakey 56.1% to a dismal 35.5%. Janet Mills (D) beat Shawn Moody (R) 50.9% to 43.8%. The county performance in the congressional race was an insurmountable D+15.

Trump On Track To Flipping Over 50 Seats From Red To Blue

Trump loves it that the midterms are all about him and seems oblivious-- at least most of the time-- that he's going tp get the blame for the Republican apocalypse... and probably get impeached too boot. He'll finally get to truthfully boast that he's starring in a TV show with high ratings. No one can doubt that Trump is driving voters participation-- and on all levels. He's got people so worked up that even conservatives in local elections-- like the 6 hapless right-wing IDC members of the New York state Senate last week-- are feeling the results of pissed off, riled up Democratic voters.

Over the weekend, writing for The Hill, Reid Wilson took a look at the soaring 2018 primary turnout across the country. "More than 40 million Americans voted in primaries this year, a staggering increase from four years ago and a sign of virtually unprecedented voter enthusiasm ahead of the midterm elections. Primary voter turnout was higher than in 2014 for both Democrats and Republicans in most states across the country-- though Democrats have a decided advantage. Through Thursday’s vote in New York, more than 22.7 million Democrats had cast ballots in party primaries, compared with just 13.8 million in 2014. Among Republicans, 19.3 million showed up to vote, an increase from the 15.5 million who voted in GOP primaries four years ago."

Look at those numbers. In the last midterms 15.5 million Republicans and just 13.8 million Democrats voted. This year, the "Trump factor" has has brought out almost 4 million more Republicans. That's a lot more Republicans, right? Yes, it is-- until you realize that 9 million more Democrats voted... or at least that 9 million more voters participated in Democratic primaries, better yet. Believe me, that indicates even bigger turnout in November. And every poll I've seen is indicating that the more people vote, the more Republicans are going to lose.

Political scientists say the higher turnout among primary electorates is a sign that voters across the spectrum are more excited to take part in the midterms than in previous years. Some said higher participation in Democratic primaries should worry Republicans, who already face a challenging midterm cycle.

“The surge in Democratic primary turnout shows that the party’s occasional voters are energized, which is an especially encouraging sign in a midterm because so many of these voters sit out anything but a presidential race,” said Thad Kousser, who heads the political science department at the University of California-San Diego.

..."When the primary turnout becomes anomalous, and suddenly it's surging in one direction or another, that does tend to have some bearing on general election turnout," said Tom Bonier, a Democratic micro-targeting expert. "Democratic turnout pretty consistently surged over Republican turnout."

Some of the states where Democratic turnout increased the most are states at the heart of the battle for control of Congress, a potentially worrying sign for Republicans trying to hold on to their fragile House majority.

Democratic turnout more than tripled in Minnesota, where the parties are fighting over two Democratic-held seats in rural areas and two Republican-held seats in the Twin City suburbs. Both sides handled competitive gubernatorial primaries, and Republican turnout rose too, by about 74 percent.

All told, 582,000 Minnesota Democrats cast primary ballots, compared to 320,000 Republicans; four years ago, just 191,000 Democrats and 184,000 Republicans voted in party primaries.

Democratic turnout more than doubled in 14 states, including in House race hotbeds such as Colorado, New York, Iowa, Kansas, Virginia, Michigan, New Jersey and Nevada.

...Overall, turnout in Democratic primaries increased in 37 of the 47 states that held comparable contests in 2014 and 2018. Most states where turnout dropped-- like Kentucky, North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska and South Dakota-- did not feature any competitive contests near the top of the ticket.

On the GOP side, turnout increased in 34 of 46 states that held comparable contests in the two midterm years. Republican turnout dropped in some that featured competitive statewide primaries, like Arizona, Mississippi, Illinois and New Hampshire, where both of the state’s two districts featured competitive Republican primaries.

McDonald said the increase in turnout is likely to be "unusually high" in November.

Bonier, the Democratic strategist, said his party should pay attention to higher turnout among Republican voters. Unlike in 2006, when Republican voters were depressed enough to stay home, today's GOP is more excited than it typically is for midterm elections.

"The one reason why Democrats shouldn't be doing backflips yet, it's not that Republicans are depressed, they're just not surging at the level that Democrats are," Bonier said. "They appear to be surging above levels that are typical of midterm turnout."

Still, high primary turnout is another data point that hints at a strong year for Democrats. Several recent surveys testing the generic ballot matchup between unnamed Democratic and Republican candidates, from outlets like CNN, Quinnipiac University, Marist College and Emerson College all show Democrats leading by double-digits. A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week pegged the Democratic edge at 8 points.

President Trump looms large over Republican hopes in November as well. Trump’s approval rating is dismally low, ranging from the high-30s in the CNN poll to the low-40s in the Reuters poll.

Significantly more voters, 58 percent, told Quinnipiac pollsters they want Congress to be more of a check on Trump’s agenda than the 27 percent who said Congress was doing enough [to support Trump].

This is going to translate into Republicans losing the majority of their open seats, seats from which nearly 40 Republicans decided to retire. The only either certain or most likely to fall to Democrats are FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen), CA-49 (Issa), WA-08 (Reichert), AZ-02 (McSally), WV-03 (Jenkins), NJ-02 (LoBiondo), WI-01 (Ryan), MI-11 (Trott), NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) plus the newly renumbered seats in Pennsylvania where GOP incumbents Ryan Costello, Charlie Dent and Pat Meehan aren't running. Robert Pittenger was defeated in his NC-09 primary by a far right extremist, Mark Harris, who can't win in a general election, so that's another seat a wave will sweep into the Democratic column. Those seats alone are halfway to a House Democratic majority. And those seats are by no means the only ones Democrats are likely to swing from red to blue. If the turnout among Democrats and independents eager to check Trump holds (or, more likely, grows), Republican incumbents likely to lose in November are:

• Jeff Denham (CA-10)

• David Valadao (CA-21)
• Steve Knight (CA-25)
• Mimi Walters (CA-45)
• Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48)
• Drunken Hunter (CA-50)
• Mike Coffman (CO-06)
• Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)
• Pete Roskam (IL-06)
• Mike Bost (IL-12)
• Rodney Davis (IL-13)
• Rod Blum (IA-01)
• David Young (IA-03)
• Kevin Yoder (KS-03)
• Andy Barr (KY-06)
• Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
• Fred Upton (MI-06)
• Mike Bishop (MI-08)
• Jason Lewis (MN-02)
• Erik Paulsen (MN-03)
• Don Bacon (NE-02)
• Tom MacArthur (NJ-03)
• Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
• John Faso (NY-19)
• Claudia Tenney (NY-22)
• John Katko (NY-24)
• Steve Chabot (OH-01)
• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)
• Keith Rothfus (PA-17)
• John Culberson (TX-07)
• Will Hurd (TX-23)
• John Carter (TX-31)
• Pete Sessions (TX-32)
• Mia Love (UT-04)
• Scott Taylor (VA-02)
• Dave Brat (VA-07)
• Barbara Comstock (VA-10)
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03)
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05)

There are likely to be others-- New York, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Iowa, for example, all have room for one or more upsets-- but what we're looking at here is over 50 red seats becoming blue seats. That's my most conservative estimate.

And speaking of Texas, the Dallas Morning News noted over the weekend that George Bush "is hosting a series of fundraising events for vulnerable Republican candidates, including a couple of House members facing tough re-election bids in his home state of Texas." These are not nothing like the big public rallies President Obama has been doing across the country. These are all closed-door, invitation-only events for conservative fat-cats. He did one last week for Will Hurd and is doing one this week for Pete Sessions. Sessions is seen as so likely too be swept away in the anti-red wave that aside from Bush, the GOP has sent in or is sending in Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Pence, almost none of whom can appear in public, just in behind closed doors sessions with GOP fat cats. If things don't start turning around for Sessions soon, they may have to send in Fuck-Up, Jr.

Bush is also doing the same kind of fat-cat-only events for a handful of Republican Senate candidates in Florida, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana... and very conspicuously not for teetering Ted Cruz in his home state of Texas (who he has publicly said he doesn't like).

Yesterday, in a letter to Blue America members, Digby asked the question, Can A Progressive Win Over An R+11 District? She then attempted to show why Ammar Campa-Najjar, being demonstrably sabotaged by the DCCC, can do what the insiders think is impossible. She started by explaining the problems with his right-wing opponent, Trump enabler Drunken Hunter.

"I don't know exactly what's in the water down in California's 50th district," she wrote, but it must be something that turns Republican congressmen into major crooks. In the last decade alone, two of them have been indicted on serious federal corruption charges, the first being the notorious Duke Cunningham who served 8 years in prison after having been convicted of bribery and a host of other crimes. And today we have Duncan Hunter who, along with his wife, apparently believed that they could use campaign and charity funds as their own personal piggy bank. The Washington Post helpfully published a list of what they called the top 10 "ickiest" allegations against him. Here are just a handful to illustrate the depth of their greed:

• Margaret Hunter allegedly spent $200 on tennis shoes at Dick’s Sporting Goods, which she then claimed as being for an annual dove hunting event for wounded warriors.
• When Hunter told his wife he needed to “buy my Hawaii shorts,” but he was out of money, she allegedly told him to buy them from a golf pro shop so he could claim they were actually golf balls for wounded warriors.
• Margaret Hunter allegedly spent $152 on makeup at Nordstrom and told the campaign it was “gift basket items for the Boys and Girls Clubs of San Diego.”
• They allegedly described the payment of their family dental bills as a charitable contribution to “Smiles for Life."

"But perhaps the ickiest of all was when Hunter threw his wife/accomplice under the bus the day the indictment was announced saying, 'When I went away to Iraq in 2003, the first time, I gave her power of attorney. She handled my finances throughout my entire military career, and that continued on when I got into Congress. She was also the campaign manager, so whatever she did, that’ll be looked at too, I’m sure, but I didn’t do it.' Then he whined like Donald Trump about the whole thing being a partisan witch hunt (by the GOP-led DOJ) and complained about the 'deep state' being out to get him. This is what passes for a chivalrous war hero turned Republican leader these days. And yes, Hunter is still running for re-election in November, apparently believing that his district actually prefers to be represented by a criminal. (It was one of the rare California districts Trump won in 2016, so that's not a crazy as it sounds.)"

Hunter has another big problem on his hands-- he has an excellent Democratic opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar. Ammar is a young, progressive former Obama administration labor official who, in yet another example of grassroots, progressive strength, shocked the Democratic establishment when he trounced the DCCC-favored "ex"-Republican primary opponent in the state's jungle primary.

Blue America backed Ammar before the primaries and we are thrilled that the rest of the party has come around: Today he's endorsed by the California Democratic Party, by the California Labor Federation, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, the Working Families Party, J Street, Our Revolution and as Howie says,  "by some pretty impressive political figures who don't rush willy-nilly into endorsing House candidates: Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti... and by the two best DCCC vice chairs, Ted Lieu and Joe Kennedy.

Can you join with all of us today and donate to Ammar's campaign? Ammar has an impressive resume and a compelling life story as well. He was raised by his single Mexican American mom after his Palestinian father moved back to Gaza. His grandfather, who died 16 years before he was born, was involved in the terrorist attack at the Munich Olympics in 1972. Of course, the Trumpsters are going there.

Click the thermometer to help him fight back against the hate, if you can.

But as the LA Times' Robin Abcarian noted:

This is the kind of life story that tantalizes the dark imaginations of conspiracy theorists, xenophobes and racists, yet inspires people who believe in the beauty of the American melting pot, in not holding sons responsible for the sins of their forebears.

If there is a battle for the soul of this country, this race exemplifies it. A crooked, privileged scion of a political dynasty, slurping at the public trough, braying incoherently about partisan witch hunts running against a young idealistic Latino-Arab American running on an anti-corruption and jobs platform. We know which side we're on, don't we?

Blue America has always believed that no matter what the conventional wisdom says about whether a progressive can win in a particular district, you never know when a Republican crook (a redundancy these days) is going to get caught, so it's always important to get on the ballot and run as hard as you can, which is exactly what Ammar has been doing for nearly 2 years.

He's the real thing and he can win this.

This district may have been conservative for years but they just didn't know what they were missing-- an honest representative of the people. Ammar Campa-Najjar is who they have been waiting for.

You can donate to Ammar's campaign here on our Blue America on our Blue America 'Progressives Abandoned by the DCCC' page.

Franklin And Eleanor Roosevelt Wing vs The Joe Lieberman And Blanche Lincoln Wing

No, not just another pretty face

Democrats from the Democratic wing of the party-- people in the tradition of Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt rather than Joe Lieberman and Blanche Lincoln-- had some nice strong wins Tuesday. It was very healthy for the Democratic Party in general that Chamber of Commerce Democrat Mary Glassman was defeated by Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes in Connecticut, that progressives with powerful personal brands like Randy Bryce WI-01) and Ilhan Omar (MN-05) were nominated for congressional races they should win and that Vermont Democratic voters overwhelmingly picked Christine Hallquist, a transgender women, as their nominee for governor. In fact, not only did Hallquist outpoll popular Republican incumbent Phil Scott Democratic turnout was 57,102 compared to Republican turnout of just 35,840, despite a barn-burner primary on the GOP side. Actually significantly more Democrats voted than Republicans-- both statewide and in every contested congressional race-- in all 4 states that had primaries. Even in midwestern districts that Trump won in 2016, Democrats showed up in greater numbers than did Republicans. All good.

Yesterday, Reid Wison, a tepid status quo pundit type, writing for The Hill sounded almost like yours truly did a year ago-- throwing at the possibility that the GOP could be facing a 70-seat wipeout. You rarely-- really rarely-- hear that kind of talk inside the Beltway. He points to "Democratic enthusiasm and a GOP malaise surrounding" Señor Trumpanzee and the table being set for "a potentially devastating midterm election for the House Republican majority." He talked about Democrats over performing Hillary and Republicans underperforming Trumpanzee in the special elections. "If that pattern holds in November," he offers, "the worst-case scenario for the GOP is a truly historic wipeout of as many as 72 House seats." I've been hearing others say "as many as 80."

Wilson's a hack though and he immediately launched into all his buts-- like this classic foolishness: "Turnout in November is likely to be higher, which could help the GOP." Or it could help the Democrats-- as it probably will-- but that depends on where that higher turnout comes from. There's no reason to think that it will come from, even what he himself referred to voters suffering from "a GOP malaise" brought on by the monstrosity in the White House. Judging from trends and Trump's increasing psychosis, that malaise is far more likely to grow than subside-- and Democrats are revving up by the day. Even someone like myself, who has talked for years about not voting for the lesser of two evils, is now urging everyone to just hold their noses and vote for even the worst Democrats just to get the House majority to but Trump in check.

A far sharper observer than Wilson could ever hope to be is Katrina vandal Heuvel, editor of The Nation who pointed out that something as important as Democrats winning is that progressive ideas are winning. Beyond Wilson's ken, she points out that "There is clearly a powerful reform movement building on the left. It is spearheaded by activists inspired by the Sanders campaign, but also by movements like Black Lives Matter, the Dreamers, #MeToo, and growing environmental activism. What is surprising-- and what should be exciting to Democrats-- is that much of the energy is focused on electoral politics, on remaking the Democratic Party rather than leaving it."

This upheaval is a long-overdue response to the failure of the Democratic establishment. The policy failure is expressed in stagnant wages, rising insecurity and inequality, widespread corruption, and unchecked climate change, to name a few calamities. The political failure is undeniable, with the loss of the White House to the most unpopular candidate in modern times, control of Congress to a remarkably reactionary Republican Party, and a thousand seats in state legislatures across the country.

To date, the reform movement has made its greatest gains in the war of ideas. This shouldn’t be surprising. The reforms that the activists are championing are bold, striking, and address real needs: Medicare for all, tuition-free public college, a $15 minimum wage, universal pre-K, a federal jobs guarantee, a commitment to rebuild America, a challenge to big-money politics, police and prison reforms, and a fierce commitment to liberty and justice for all.

These ideas aren’t “radical.” They enjoy broad popular support-- even the Koch brothers’ own polling demonstrates that. Not surprisingly, these ideas are increasingly championed not just by progressives like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but by more mainstream liberals like Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker as they gear up for the 2020 presidential race.

...The insurgent candidates have fared remarkably well, given the odds. They are, almost by definition, fresh and inexperienced. They face opponents who start with more money, more experienced operatives, and greater name recognition. Deep-pocketed outside groups line up against them. Many are seeking to build small-donor and volunteer-driven campaigns from the ground up.

The victories in the various House primaries-- Ocasio-Cortez in New York, Kara Eastman in Nebraska, Rashida Tlaib in Michigan, Katie Porter in California-- are impressive. But less well-known is the remarkable surge of insurgent candidates in down-ballot state and local races. One that did get attention was the upset victory of Wesley Bell for St. Louis County prosecutor, ousting a 27-year incumbent who had failed to even charge the officer involved in the 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.

...The media need to focus less on the horse races and more on what’s being built and what’s being discarded. The insurgency is neither on its deathbed nor about to sweep out the old. Indeed, Democrats are still in the early stages of a huge debate on the party’s direction. Insurgent candidates are only starting to build the capacity to run serious challengers. But there is new energy in the party and a new generation demanding change. This reality is forcing more established Democrats to adjust. In the face of Trump’s venom, Republican reaction, and the failure of the party leadership, that is surely a good thing. And that thermometer above-- that's so you can lend a hand to the progressives who won their primaries but which the DCCC-- still firmly controlled by the Lieberman/Lincoln wing of the party-- refuses to support against their Republican opponents!

Why Centrism Absolutely Sucks

You probably didn't hear Ann Coulter ranting and raving on Howie Carr's Hate Talk radio show Wednesday. She still trusts in what she calls Trumpism... but not so much in Señor Trumpanzee. She still wants to see him impeached. "If we're not gettin' a wall, we may as well have an attractive, dignified Republican there. We'll get better Supreme Court justices under Pence. We'll get better Supreme Court justices under Pence; we won't have to worry about Nikki Haley being sent to the Supreme Court at least."

The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that "only a third of the public believes Trump has accomplished much as president, and fewer than 30 percent back his handling of health care, race relations and the violent episode in Charlottesville." The only thing the public likes about his tenure in office so far-- by an overwhelming 71% to 8% margin-- was his outreach to Chuck and Nancy on government funding. On everything else-- from North Korea and Climate Change to Joe Arpaio, healthcare and race relations, the public is giving a big collective thumbs down.

Respondents liked the top congressional leaders even less than Trump! In order of approval (First number is approval and the second is disapproval):

• Pelosi- 25%/43%
• Ryan- 24%/40%
• Schumer- 18%/27%
• McConnell- 11%/41%

"[W]hat stands out about McConnell and Ryan is that a sizable number of Republicans now view these GOP leaders unfavorably." Now. keep in mind that neither McConnell nor Schumer are up for reelection in 2018. Pelosi and Ryan are. Although Pelosi has a vigorous primary challenge from Berniecrat, Stephen Jaffe, her district has an unassailable D+37 PVI. Ryan, on the other hand, is in real danger-- mortal jeopardy. His reelect numbers in his own district are in the low 40s; he has a Trumpist nut challenging him on the right and, for the general election, Randy Bryce is taking away most of his independent voter support with a clear and authentic-- meaning non-DCCC-- message that goes right to what working families are thinking about. Head to head match-ups in the district show Randy and Ryan statistically tied and Randy pulling significantly ahead when voters hear a few lines of candidate bios. Ryan's district has a PVI of R+5, not easy to overcome, but doable in a wave election and doable with the exceptional attention the race is drawing because of two super-high profile candidates. (That's the Stop Paul Ryan ActBlue thermometer on the right. Consider giving it a tap and contributing what you can to Randy Bryce's campaign.)

That all said, Reid Wilson had an interesting OpEd at The Hill Wednesday-- Fury fuels the modern political climate in US. "Americans," he began "are angry about everything."

Last November, voters faced a choice between the two least-popular major-party presidential nominees ever to appear on a ballot.

Trump, the surprise winner, took over a capital as deeply divided as the country it ostensibly serves. One legislative chamber is controlled by a small cadre of the majority’s leadership, who are in turn at the mercy of a rump faction of arch ideologues. The other is torn by partisan discord that has escalated measurably for nearly 50 years, to the point of dysfunction.

After a decade of economic and cultural tumult, one in which our trust in civic institutions has fallen to all-time lows, the degradation of the nation’s political system has left American government at a crossroads. Congress is at a standstill. The two major political parties are both dealing with identity crises.

The chasms that have emerged in the wake of partisan gamesmanship and a vastly uneven economic evolution-- even before a more uneven recovery-- have become a feature of American life, not a bug.

“Our system is set up for cooperation, negotiation, those sorts of things,” said Rob Griffin, a demographer at the Center for American Progress and George Washington University. “Our system is uniquely unsuited to deal with polarization.”

...The partisan fever created by two almost evenly divided factions vying for power, and the logjam in government, show few signs of breaking without some sort of nationally unifying catastrophe.

The polarization of our politics and the wider loss of trust in cultural institutions comes amid a collective struggle to sort out the next steps in the American experiment, the stalemate among our leaders to chart a future course.

To begin, the issues at the heart of both the Trump campaign and Hillary Clinton’s campaign touched on the very questions of what it means to be an American.

The economic evolution that has sent manufacturing and extracting industries plunging while service and technology jobs surge has challenged the preconceptions of a generation of Americans accustomed to seeing an assembly line job as a path to middle-class success.

The influx of immigrants seeking a better life within our borders is speeding a demographic change already well underway due to natural growth in minority communities.

And the small towns that once defined Middle America are dying as big metropolitan areas outpace them in job creation and cultural dominance.

“The things that we’re fighting about are fundamentally different visions of what America is,” said Lee Drutman, a political scientist at New America. “There’s never been a democracy as diverse or unequal as the United States.”

Blame lies, too, with the leaders sent to Washington. Politicians, like anyone, are driven by incentives, and in a moment of hyperpartisanship the overwhelming incentive is to demonize the other side-- as Trump has with immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally, or to a lesser extent as Clinton did with her “basket of deplorables” remark.

More broadly, that demonization has set communities against each other: Rural residents resent the elitism of urban cores. Race relations between whites, blacks and Hispanic-Americans are degrading: About 60 percent of minorities say race relations are generally bad, according to a Pew Research Center poll released last year, and another Pew poll showed 43 percent of whites and an incredible 74 percent of blacks fear race relations will get worse. About 6 in 10 Republicans and Democrats say they fear the other party’s agenda, a four-fold increase since the mid-1990s.

“Concerns about the other tend to be more prevalent than before, but what that other is isn’t clear,” said Emily Ekins, director of polling at the Cato Institute.

Some blame the media for playing up conflict and increasing divisions in the country. Arguably, no industry has undergone a longer and more sustained disruption than the communications industry.

Decades ago, Americans consumed the vast majority of their news from one of a small handful of sources, concentrated in the nation’s largest cities. Walter Cronkite was the most trusted man in America, and even robust local newspapers consumed Associated Press content or raced to match the New York Times.

Today, the rise of partisan media outlets has supplemented conservative talk radio and in turn has been supplemented by the internet’s ability to spread dubious news.

“You have basically the information network that stitched America together now cracking apart,” said Laura Quinn, a Democratic data analytics expert.

“We don’t even start from the same set of facts anymore,” said Billy Piper, a Republican lobbyist and former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

In a political system with a bias toward slowing progress, most observers see three potential paths ahead, two of which are unlikely and a third that is unpalatable: a radical change to existing rules, the rise of a third party or a continuation of the intractable morass of the status quo.

...“The anger that comes with being presented with those two extreme choices has led to the gridlock and paralysis and political failure,” Quinn said. “Donald Trump’s narrative is simply: America is in a zero-sum game. Pick your tribe and arm yourself. And if his narrative wins, that’s the future that we all have to look forward to.”

Wilson's positions are those of a dyed-in-the-wool Beltway centrist, so his little-of-this-little-of-that/both sides perspective is what informs his writing and the way he sees politics. He will always equate the failure on the right-- Nazis, fascists, Trumpists-- with a desire to see an equally extreme left, something that doesn't exist. A real world equivalent of the far right of the Republican Party would be nothing like the vision Bernie Sanders and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. A significant-- now dominant-- strain of the Republican Party, neo-fascism, has nothing "balancing" it inside the Democratic Party with which to draw any equivalence except false equivalence. There is no opposite faction inside the Democratic Party-- not even close. The furthest left members of Congress, say Mark Pocan, Pramila Jayapal, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee and Jamie Raskin, are all firmly within the mainstream of American politics-- straight out of the Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt vision of U.S. governance. Now compare that with someone like Roy Moore, who is about to be nominated by the GOP for an Alabama Senate seat. Or sociopaths like Steve King (R-IA), Virginia Foxx (R-NC), Lamar Smith (R-TX) or Louie Gohmert (R-TX) or anyone else from the profoundly anti-democratic Steve Bannon wing of the GOP. A by-product of Trumpism is that GOP centrists like Dean Heller no longer have a natural constituency within the GOP. Centrists like Wilson don't want to understand that, don't want to understand that with every fiber of their beings. It kills the whole shitty narrative they live their lives by. After all, their stinking vision of a happy centrist politics created Paul Ryan out of a gym instructor and former Weinermobile driver.