Populist Rural Voters Were Part Of FDR's Coalition-- Will They Be Part Of Bernie's

Jared Golden made history this cycle-- not just because he's a progressive Democrat who won Maine's second district and not just because prior to Poliquin's defeat no incumbent had lost an election for Maine's 2nd District seat since 1916, but because he is the first member of Congress who won election through ranked-choice voting. The working class whip of the Maine state House, formerly a front line marine, took out Wall Street-backed GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin. Two years earlier Maine voters had approved the use of ranked-choice voting in a referendum. A long process then ensued culminating in a unanimous state Supreme Court ruling that ranked-choice voting be used to determine 2018 winners. The result:

Maine experienced something of a blue wave this month. Independent Senate incumbent Angus King, who caucuses with the Democrats, was reelected against a Republican who only drew 35% of the vote. Democrat Janet Mills was elected governor over Republican Shawn Moody, replacing Trumpist oaf Paul LePage, who fled the state. Democrats flipped the state Senate from 18 Republicans, 17 Democrats to 21 Democrats, 14 Republicans and greatly increased their strength in the state House. Going into the election there were 74 Democrats and 70 Republicans. After the election, 13 Republican districts flipped and the new lineup is 89 Democrats and just 57 Republicans.

Maine has two congressional seats. The first district, represented by Chellie Pingree, is very blue and has a PVI of D+8. Hillary beat Trump there 54.1% to 39.3%. The relatively compact district, in the southeast corner of the state, stretches from Waterville and Augusta, through Brunswick, Portland, Kennebunk and Wells to Kittery and the suburbs of Portsmouth, New Hampshire. It is primarily urban and suburban and very different from the 2nd district.

ME-02, the biggest district east of the Mississippi, is primarily rural (72%), has an R+2 PVI and gave Trump a 51.4% to 41.1% win over Hillary-- after having voted heavily for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Flipping it blue was no mean feat. The DCCC, which wanted Golden to join the Blue Dogs-- he joined the Congressional Progressive Caucus instead-- was not enthusiastic about his progressive record in the state legislature and his strong independent streak. They didn't back him against a richie-rich establishment candidate in the primary and allowed a GOP smear campaign to overwhelm their own spending against Poliquin. The measly $2 million they and Pelosi spent in Maine was nothing compared to the $3,467,925 from Ryan's SuperPAC, $1,089,171 from Trump's SuperPAC and $888,892 from the NRCC that slammed Golden mercilessly throughout the campaign with deceitful ads like this:



ME-02 is the exception to the rule of the 2018 wave narrative that has taken root this month, which is all about suburban women rejecting Trump. That narrative excludes all mention of rural districts like Golden's. But this morning, writing for Reuters, James Oliphant reported that Democrats actually did make inroads in rural America and among the kind of white working class voters that backed Trump over Hillary in 2016. Dems, after all, did win in rural districts in Iowa, Pennsylvania, New York and, as we just saw, in Maine's second district. "Democrats," wrote Oliphant, "increased their share of the vote in dozens of the country’s most rural congressional districts, a Reuters analysis shows." Looking forward, Democratic groups argue that "the party could reach working-class voters by focusing on economic opportunity for those without college degrees."

Compared to 2016 election results, they posted gains in at least 54 districts where the share of households in rural areas was at least 39 percent, or twice the national average, even though they only won a handful of the districts.

That could bode well for Democratic efforts to win the White House and retake the Senate in 2020.

In beating Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with their combined 46 electoral votes, by less than 1 percentage point, or by a total of about 80,000 votes.

...Democratic officials were encouraged by the election of Democratic governors Tony Evers in Wisconsin and Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Senator Amy Klobuchar’s victory in Minnesota, another state with a large rural population.

Whitmer, who emphasized fixing the state’s roads, won nine counties that went for Trump in 2016. Klobuchar, who may run for president, won more than 40 counties in Minnesota that supported Trump over Clinton.

Still, the road to Democrats’ new House majority mostly ran through cities and suburbs, while Republicans held on to the vast majority of rural districts they were defending.

Democrats lost two tight House races in Minnesota in largely rural districts and the governor’s race in Iowa, reaffirming Republicans’ edge in those regions.

Democrats say they will try to prevent that with new investments and organization in places they had once surrendered as unwinnable.

Officials at the Democratic National Committee say after Democrat Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, the party became preoccupied with defending so-called battleground areas at the expense of the rest of the country, cutting it off from huge swaths of voters.

Tom Perez, chairman of the DNC, said the turnaround began last year with the surprise win by Doug Jones in an Alabama special Senate election-- the first time a Democrat had won a Senate race in Alabama since 1992-- followed by Democrat Conor Lamb’s successful run earlier this year for a House seat in a rural Pennsylvania district long held by Republicans.

Those victories spurred greater investment in places such as Maine, where the party targeted the rural congressional district won last week by Jared Golden, and Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams lost but ran a surprisingly competitive governor’s race.

Lamb’s victory provided a playbook for other rural Democrats such as Golden, Anthony Brindisi in upstate New York, and Richard Ojeda, who ran an underdog campaign in deeply rural West Virginia that drew national attention.

Although Ojeda ultimately lost, he generated the biggest pro-Democrat swing in the country for a House district from 2016-- boosting the Democrats’ share of the vote by 20 percentage points in one of the nation’s most ardently pro-Trump regions.

The candidates embraced some gun rights to avoid alienating rural voters, while advocating a working-class populism that argued the booming U.S. economy was not benefiting their regions.

Like Democrats in congressional races nationally, they supported coverage for preexisting medical conditions. The opioid epidemic was a prominent issue, dovetailing with voters’ concerns over a repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

And speaking about rural politics, it's worth noting that the harvest is in and crops are rotting, while Trump's trade wars are circling the drain. Trumpland is stinking of decomposing grain with no markets. Farmers are going bankrupt; grain storage facilities are cleaning up bigly.

New England Is Now, Congressionally Speaking, A Republican-Free Zone— Congratulations

Winning smile

Although Maine’s largely rural second congressional district voted for Obama both times he ran, in 2016 it was anything but Hillary country. First Bernie wiped her out in the state caucuses 64.3% to 35.3%. And in the 2nd it was even worse for her. Bernie took every county, Oxford with over 70%. When the general election rolled around, Hillary was toast; Trump beat her 51.4-41.1% in the district— and Wall Street Republican Bruce Poliquin easily beat a hapless identity politics laughing stock the Democrats cluelessly decided to run (again). Poliquin beat Emily Cain 192,878 (54.8%) to 159,081 (45.2%). Two years earlier he had beaten her 133,320 (45.2%) to 118,568 (40.2%) in a 3-way race.

This year, the state House whip, Jared Golden, didn’t wait for the DCCC’s— or anyone else’s— blessing. A former front line Marine (Afghanistan and Iraq), he jumped in and ran on a Bernie-like agenda geared towards the district’s working families. The establishment preferred one of their own, hereditary multimillionaire dabbler Lucas St. Claire. Golden beat him 54.3% to 45.7%.

In the first round of general election voting Poliquin led by a little over 1,000 votes— 46.2% to 45.6%, but because neither candidate received 50%, the state’s ranked choice voting system kicked in— at it kicked in before Poliquin lost his lawsuit trying to stop it from going forward. This afternoon, after the final count, Jared was declared the winner, surging past Poliquin by slightly less than 3,000 votes after the ranked-choice votes of two independents in the race were redistributed.

The final vote tally was 139,231 votes for Golden versus 136,326 votes for Poliquin— or 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.

This is the first time in U.S. history that a congressional race was decided using ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to cast ballots for their favorite candidate but also rank other candidates in order of preference. Those ranked-choice votes only come into play, however, when no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote on the initial tally.

Thursday’s vote tally may not be the end, however. Poliquin is challenging the constitutionality of ranked-choice voting in federal court, and the campaign could ask for a recount of the results.

…Poliquin and three other plaintiffs had asked U.S. District Court Judge Lance Walker to declare the ranked-choice process unconstitutional and effectively declare Poliquin the winner. They also asked for Walker to halt the tabulation process until he can consider the constitutionality question.

Walker’s order on Thursday denied the request for immediate intervention but leaves open the possibility of a legal battle over the results.

Walker cited Maine voters’ repeated support for ranked-choice voting in his ruling Thursday.

“As it stands, the citizens of Maine have rejected the policy arguments plaintiffs advance against RCV,” Walker wrote. “Maine voters cast their ballots in reliance on the RCV system. For the reasons indicated above, I am not persuaded that the United States Constitution compels the Court to interfere with this most sacred expression of democratic will by enjoining the ballot-counting process and declaring Representative Poliquin the victor.”

…Of the second-choice votes redistributed Thursday, Golden received 10,232 while 4,695 went to Poliquin. More than 8,000 of the ballots cast for independents did not designate a second choice.

This is the first congressional race in the nation to be decided using the ranked-choice voting process. Maine voters have endorsed the ranked-choice process twice via two separate ballot questions.

Another manifestation of the pernicious Trump Effect: no more Republicans in the House from New England-- and just the very vulnerable Susan Collins, who is up for reelection in 2020, in the Senate. I expect great things from Jared who will hit the ground running, having been the progressive "tip of the spear" in the state legislature and who knows exactly how to get legislation passed in a split government.

Jared by Nancy Ohanian

Will Their Opposition To Healthcare Kill The GOP November 6th?

One of the funniest moments in the election debate this cycle-- at least for me-- came when Arizona congresswoman, Martha McSally, a garden variety Trump rubber-stamp who had voted to repeal protections for pre-existing conditions several times, was cornered by a reporter asking her to square her consistent record against healthcare with her promise now-- as she runs for U.S. Senate-- to protect people with pre-existing conditions from the greed of insurance companies. After lying for a few minutes to a reporter who kept pointing out her votes, she finally said something to the effect of "Can't you ask me about something voters are interested in, like the Caravan?" True, Fox News and hate talk radio hosts are interested in the Caravan... but voters? Not so much. They're more interested in Republicans trying to take away their healthcare.

In TX-10, Mike Siegel is campaign for Congress on a platform that includes Medicare for All. His opponent, Michael McCaul is a Trump enabler who has voted to destroy Medicare and to strip away protections for pre-existing conditions. "I have friends and family who would not be alive, and would not have healthcare, but for the Affordable Care Act's protections for pre-existing conditions," Mike told us. "My cousin received a liver transplant that his private insurance refused to pay for, thanks to the ACA. My opponent Michael McCaul voted repeatedly to repeal the ACA without having any replacement in place. The differences between us could not be more stark, and the choice for voters is clear." This is the ad Mike has been running on social media in his district:



In Omaha, progressive Democrat Kara Eastman has had to confront this bullshit head-on, as her opponent, anti-healthcare fanatic and desperate, compulsive liar Don Bacon (R-NE), has tried to pose as a protector of preexisting conditions-- even though he voted against protecting them every single time he could. "My opponent," she told us, "voted 'Hell Yes' for the AHCA. He claims this would have protected people with pre-existing conditions. However, the Washington Post gave this claim 3 PINOCCHIOS as the law would have allowed states the option to seek waivers that would nullify this promise."



The new Ipsos poll released by Reuters yesterday shows that 58% of likely voters want to keep ObamaCare in place and "eight in 10 likely voters from each major party want to protect coverage for people with existing conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes or cancer." I wonder how long before Trump and his sycophants start claiming they support it too. And have always supported it.

With the Nov. 6 elections looming, Democrats are reminding voters of Republicans’ often-repeated promises to repeal the 2010 law. Many Republican candidates are softening their tone or removing website references decrying what they long derided as “Obamacare,” according to candidates, analysts and healthcare experts in both parties.

As Democrats seek to take control of Congress, they see Republicans as having a particularly weak spot on healthcare. Sixty-seven of the 73 most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives voted at least once to eliminate the ACA and its protections for pre-existing conditions, according to the Center for American Progress Action Fund.



Some of those votes date back to the Obama administration, though his successor, Republican President Donald Trump, also campaigned on a promise to undo the law. A repeal attempt after Trump took office last year failed.

Opinion polls show Democrats as having a chance to achieve the net gain of 23 seats they would need to take a majority in the House, but facing a longer shot at picking up the two seats they need to take control of the Senate.

Democratic activists said the repeated Republican attempts to repeal the ACA provide a powerful tool to motivate voters.

“Healthcare has an ability to move people into action,” said Ben Wikler, Washington director of liberal activist group MoveOn. “It is turning people out in town hall meetings ... getting people to make hundreds of thousands of phone calls and getting voters to the polls.”

One sign of Democratic focus: 54.5 percent of Democrats’ federal election ads from Sept. 18 to Oct. 15 mentioned healthcare, far more than the 8.7 percent that did so at the same time in 2010, according to the Wesleyan Media Project.

Some 33.9 percent of Republican federal election ads mentioned healthcare during this period and 31.5 percent in 2010. Republicans took control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections, boosted in part by opposition to the ACA, which had become law earlier that year.

While the aim of the ACA was to expand healthcare insurance to reach millions of Americans who did not have any coverage, Republicans campaigned for years against it as government overreach, especially its requirement that people buy health insurance or pay a financial penalty.

U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill has made healthcare the focus of her campaign in Missouri against Republican challenger Josh Hawley. The state’s attorney general, Hawley has faced criticism from individuals and healthcare groups for saying he supports covering pre-existing conditions even after suing to end the ACA.

“Everyone is feeling anxious and worried about the future of healthcare,” McCaskill said in a telephone interview. “It’s beginning to dawn on people that the Republicans didn’t have a replacement (for the ACA), and that they have no ideas on how they could do it better.”

Hawley ran for state attorney general by emphasizing his role in a lawsuit against the ACA that went to the U.S. Supreme Court, and also worked on a team that successfully challenged the ACA’s requirement to provide contraceptives coverage.

Despite Republican opposition, eight years after its passage many Americans have seen some benefits from the law.

“By the time Republicans last year tried to repeal the law, it had become real, people had benefited,” said Brad Woodhouse, executive director of Protect Our Care. He said at least 20 Republican incumbents have “scrubbed” their websites to appear more supportive of the law.

In Kentucky, Representative Andy Barr has called his vote to repeal the ACA “a great day for freedom in America” but now plays up his support of programs to prevent and treat opioid addiction. In Maine, Representative Bruce Poliquin dropped a promise to “end Obamacare” and now talks about protecting hospitals.



Ted Cruz, a U.S. senator from Texas, said during a debate this month against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke that he would protect pre-existing illnesses, despite having once forced a shutdown of the federal government over ACA repeal efforts.

In a hotly contested upstate New York congressional race, Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado has hammered his opponent, first-term Republican John Faso, over his vote to repeal the ACA.

“John Faso, despite voting to take away protections, is running TV ads saying the exact opposite,” he said during a recent town hall meeting. “How can you look someone in the face and say, ‘No, I didn’t do that.’ After a while, you’re just lying to our faces blatantly. This is too real to lie about.”

Faso defended his vote in an interview, saying New York state law already ensures patients with pre-existing conditions are protected, regardless of federal legislation.

Despite support for specific elements of the law, 52 percent of likely voters told Reuters/Ipsos they view the U.S. healthcare system as “poor” or “terrible.”

There's No Weakening Of The Anti-Red Wave

Janet Hook reported for the Wall Street Journal that "Voter interest in the midterm elections has surged to record highs within both parties... findings point to an energized electorate, buffeted by dynamics that bring great uncertainty to the outcome just two weeks away. Her paper's own polling shows Democrats up by 9 points. Even the Republican Party polling firm, Rasmussen, shows the Democrats up, albeit just by 1 point. But the RealClearPolitics average is Democrats up 7.7 points. And last week's most accurate poll, the SSRS poll for CNN, shows the Democrats up by 13 points among likely voters, 54-41%, bolstered by women-- 63-33%. The FiveThirtyEight forecaster gives the Democrats a 6 out of 7 chance to win the majority in the House (84.9%... great odds).

And still... Sean Sullivan at the Washington Post was determined to pen the stupidest election analysis of the weekend: House Democrats' Hope For Wave Election Diminishes As Republicans Rebound. In a lesson of how to gin up excitement, Sullivan wrote that "Democratic hopes for a wave election that would carry them to a significant House majority have been tempered in recent weeks amid a shifting political landscape and a torrent of hard-hitting attack ads from Republicans. Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they would lose-- and, perhaps, find a path to preserving their advantage in the chamber." Do they now? This is news? Sullivan is either really stupid, really misinformed, or really Republican. He credits "Trump's rising approval rating and the polarizing fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh." Trump's approval rating is sinking not rising, except for one outlier poll. And Kavanaugh? A new released over the weekend by the Associated Press found that just 1 in 4 people think Kavanaugh "was completely honest when he heatedly rebuffed charges of sexual assault and heavy drinking during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing... Overall, 43 percent disapprove of Kavanaugh’s confirmation while 35 percent approve." That's going to derail a powerful anti-red wave that's been building for over a year? To make Sullivan's lame argument lamer, the poll also found that the role played by Trump was only approved by 32% of voters.

Even Mr. Beltway Conventional Wisdom, Dave Wasserman, told him that "The past few weeks haven't really diminished Democrats' chances of a takeover by that much, but they've increased the chances of a small Democratic majority." Sullivan's own reporting about GOP triage doesn't seem to fit the headline all that well.

The GOP is redirecting $1 million from a suburban district in Colorado to Florida, bailing on incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman to try to hold an open seat in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Health and Human Services secretary in the Clinton administration, is struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American and former television anchor, in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points.

Republicans have also pulled back in a Democratic-held open seat in Nevada that includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there, as well.

...Republicans face other obstacles, including strong Democratic fundraising and enthusiasm, as well as struggling top-of-ticket GOP contenders in some Midwestern states that could hurt candidates down the ballot.

In a newly drawn Pennsylvania district in the suburbs of Philadelphia, where Clinton won by two percentage points, Democrat Scott Wallace, a wealthy philanthropist, said the contentious Kavanaugh fight has improved his chances of ousting first-term GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.

"On the independent and Democratic side, and of course moderate Republicans, there is a sense of anger about how Dr. Ford was treated," said Wallace, referring to Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when both were teenagers; Kavanaugh denied the allegations. "My observation is that anger is a stronger motivator than gratitude. So, I think by Election Day, you will see the Kavanaugh effect will produce more energy on our side."

A recent New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll showed Wallace leading Fitzpatrick. The Republican held an edge in surveys earlier in the year.



Health care has been a main focal point of Democratic ads, which cast Republicans who voted repeatedly to repeal the law as threats to protections for people with preexisting medical conditions. Democrats have also slammed Republicans who supported the sweeping tax bill, which hasn't produced the political boost the GOP envisioned.

"Consistently, the number one issue that I hear about from voters is health care," said Rep. Katherine Clark, Mass., recruitment vice chair for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Clark said she has been to six states in the last three weeks and Democratic energy is still higher than she's ever seen in a midterm.

...The generic congressional ballot, one measure often used in public polls, shows Democrats in position to capture the majority. Voters are asked whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican, without names.

Among registered voters, Democratic candidates led 53 percent to 42 percent, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted this month showed. Election forecasters and analysts estimate that Democrats need a six- to eight-point advantage to win a majority.

...In a memo to donors, Corry Bliss, the head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) wrote that the map was moving in a good direction for Republicans, but Democrats had the financial advantage. He said his group had raised $10 million in two weeks, but that Democrats were outspending the GOP on TV in top races.

And what would you expect him to say to GOP fat cats who he was trying to get more money out of? A prominent Democratic campaign manager just called me while I was writing this piece to scream about what a moron Sullivan is. His rant was too profanity-laced for me to use, although he did say something about agreeing with Trump about the quality of the Washington Post. By the way, please keep the contributions flowing to grassroots progressive who need help with their Get-Out-The-Vote efforts. This thermometer is for progressives who won their primaries and aren't being helped by the DCCC.

Oh... and Sullivan seems to have forgotten to mention early voting-- which is going through the roof. For example, Democrat areas of Georgia are going to have bigger voter turn outs than they did in the presidential election! Look at this and tell me the wave is evaporating.

Conservative Newspapers Are Endorsing Progressive Democrats Faster Than The DCCC Is

A few days ago, we saw the Des Moines Register give the nod to J.D. Scholten over Steve King in Iowa. Even the very very conservative Weekly Standard seems to be urging their readers in Iowa-- at the very least-- to not voted for King: Steve King: America’s Most Deplorable Congressman: "He’s an embarrassment to the GOP and to America," wrote Adam Rubinstein, who pointed out that King is animated by "race-based identity-politics that consumes the alt-right. King’s focus on race and ethnicity is so consuming that it has become the core of his politics... Why King is taking sides in foreign elections in the first place remains a mystery. But the bigger mystery is why he still has a seat in Congress."

Almost as surprising has been the conservative Houston Chronicles' endorsements for progressive Democrats. Earlier this week, the editors tossed Michael McCaul overboard, after endorsing him in every election for two decades-- and urged their readers to vote for Mike Siegel instead. And now they've also backed another progressive, Dayna Steele over another right-wing GOP incumbent, Brian Babin. Why? NOT because Steele in doing a DCCC-scenerio which calls on candidate in districts like hers to run on Republican-lite platforms. Not at all. The Chronicle explained they are backing her because she's running on a string platform New Deal type platform: "The main issue for Steele, 59, is Medicare-for-all because too many people can’t afford the care they need, especially in the rural stretches and small towns of this district... She also wants a $15 per hour minimum wage, free community college and job training, expanded Internet availability for rural Texas and immigration laws that provide a path to citizenship. 'I believe government’s job is to make people’s lives better. Everything goes back to health care-- you can’t do anything if you’re not healthy,' she told us."

The DCCC is ignoring her race... and Mike Siegel's race. Both are better off without their heavy-handed and lame interference in their races. And if she-- and Mike-- get into Congress, they won't have to take any bullshit from Pelosi and Hoyer and will owe nothing to anyone but their Texas constituents. The Chronicle:

Singers David Crosby and Melissa Etheridge aren’t your typical fixtures in political campaigns for this sprawling congressional district, but Dayna Steele isn’t your typical candidate.

A longtime DJ for 101 KLOL-- they call her the First Lady of Rock and Roll-- she later became a motivational speaker and prolific writer, and also a successful business woman as the owner of an online store for space memorabilia and NASA merchandise. After the 2016 election and taking part in the national Women’s March, Steele decided to step up and run for the 36th congressional district, which drops down from Lake Sam Rayburn and Toledo Bend in East Texas and the Louisiana border to Galveston Bay, the Houston Ship Channel and Johnson Space Center.

Steele has a contagious energy, impressive fundraising and undeniable communication skills that has some political observers looking at this typically deep-red district with renewed interest. She also has the ability to get Crosby and Etheridge to show up for campaign concerts, which has classic rock fans paying attention.

She’s running against two-term incumbent Brian Babin, who has thorough experience in local government, including time as mayor of Woodville. He’s a dentist for his day job. In Congress he chairs the Space Subcommittee of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology and in that role is getting more money for manned space flight, the Johnson Space Center’s specialty.

...[W]e like Steele’s policy proposals and her focus on how the government can and should help people who don’t live in major economic centers. It’s a reminder of why New Deal Democrats were popular in Texas for so many years.

The main issue for Steele, 59, is Medicare-for-all because too many people can’t afford the care they need, especially in the rural stretches and small towns of this district.

“I believe government’s job is to make people’s lives better. Everything goes back to health care-- you can’t do anything if you’re not healthy,” she told us.

She also wants a $15 per hour minimum wage, free community college and job training, expanded Internet availability for rural Texas and immigration laws that provide a path to citizenship.

Steele is a longtime supporter of Planned Parenthood and women’s right to choose, and she thinks the Environmental Protection Agency needs to be strengthened, not weakened as we’re seeing under Trump. That’s a particularly important concern for this refinery-heavy district.

Babin, on the other hand, believes the EPA “has threatened our petrochemical and agricultural interests with excessive regulation,” according to his campaign website. The League of Conservation Voters gives him a zero rating on environmental legislation.

Babin’s campaign reads like a Republican dream-- he favors tax cuts, less regulation, unfettered gun ownership, a border wall, a stronger military and space supremacy while opposing abortion. He supports Social Security and Medicare for the elderly, but forget about Obamacare and a universal health care system. He expressed real animus for both when he met with the Houston Chronicle editorial board.

Once in a blue moon, the DCCC get it right. They did in Maine this cycle, where they actually are helping Jared Golden win his race. He's one of the only progressive who they are helping and have spent a modest $1,089,947 on his race. Yesterday the Bangor Daily News endorsed Golden, a full on progressive Democrat, over conservative incumbent Bruce Poliquin, a Trump enabler. The editors exploded Poliquin's dishonest talking points about healthcare, the #1 issue in Maine: "Last year, Rep. Bruce Poliquin voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with an inferior plan with weaker protections for those with pre-existing conditions that would have led to more than 23 million Americans losing their health insurance by 2026. The House bill that he supported would have been especially harmful to rural areas, like Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

The district deserves a representative who better reflects its needs and values. Jared Golden, a Marine Corps veteran and legislative leader, would be that representative.

On health care, which voters have identified as their top concern in this election, Golden would be a vote in Congress to protect and improve the Affordable Care Act while working toward a more permanent solution to extend health insurance to more Americans while also reducing costs. He supports allowing people between the ages of 55 and 65 to buy into Medicare as a step toward universal health care. Contrary to Poliquin’s scary claims, this is not radical and it will not end Medicare coverage for senior. It would simply allow more Americans to participate in a health insurance program that works-- more efficiently than most privately run insurance plans.

These are reasonable, concrete steps compared with Poliquin’s promises of more consumer choices and more competition to lower prices.

Poliquin, who dodges debate questions, the media and his constituents, has been a reliable vote for much of the GOP agenda in Congress, including tax cuts, ACA repeal and “welfare reform.” Golden has a record of working with both Democrats and Republicans in the Maine House to pass a diverse array of legislation. He has done this at a time when Democrats control the House, but Republicans control the Maine Senate and governor’s office.

Successful bills Golden has sponsored will expand mental health care options for veterans, make it easier for returning veterans to use their military credentials to obtain state professional licenses needed for their civilian employment and direct schools to develop suicide prevention protocols.

Golden is not a cookie-cutter Democrat or, as Poliquin calls him, “a radical socialist.” Having worked for Sen. Susan Collins on the Homeland Security Committee, he understands the need for border security but also the need to welcome and help asylum seekers and other immigrants. He voted against the impeachment of Gov. Paul LePage and has said he would not vote to elect Nancy Pelosi to another term as Speaker of the House if Democrats gain control of that chamber... Golden should be 2nd District voters’ first choice for a more thoughtful, accessible and pragmatic representative in Congress.

Slimy Conservatives Avoid Debates-- And When They Get Forced Into One... They ALWAYS Work To Limit Voter Access

Ted Cruz fancies himself a world champion debater. But somehow the political equivalent of a kindergarten toddler kicked his ass during the 2016 Republican primary season. Now he's up against a young congressman from El Paso, Beto O'Rourke and Beto beat him in every debate they've had so far-- hands down. When CNN invited Cruz and Beto to participate in an hour-long nationally televised town hall on October 18, Cruz refused and Beto accepted. Therefore Beto gets a one hour free segment on CNN at 9 PM (CT), worth millions of dollars, about 2 weeks before the election and right in the middle of early voting.

Believe it or not, the California conservative in the Senate race here, Dianne Feinstein, is even worse than Cruz. Feinstein is incapable of debating state Senator Kevin de León, her opponent in the D vs D general election. De León and virtually every major media outlet in the state have tried to get her to debate and she's dodged over and over-- just like she has for the past 2 decades of not debating.

Humiliated by the press, she finally agreed-- but to one with virtually no chance that anyone will see it. The "discussion" (absolutely not a debate) will take place at noon on Wednesday, October 17, sponsored by the Public Policy Institute. The only way to watch it is by registering on their obscure website. No TV or radio coverage will be allowed to broadcast it. Feinstein only agreed to do this if de León is not permitted to address her directly.

In the sprawling 36th district of Texas, east of Houston, Dayna Steele has been trying to get Brian Babin to debate for months. He refuses. Much like Feinstein, he allowed a private, non-broadcast "discussion"-- actually an endorsement screening--where he farted out his right-wing talking points and left. Dayna is still trying to get a real debate but Babin, a dentist and congressional backbencher with not a single accomplishment other than pulling some teeth, has adamantly refused.

Another cowardly conservative, Mimi Walters in Orange County (CA-45), has been hiding out and avoiding a debate, which Katie Porter keeps calling for. Katie's campaign manager, Erica Kwiatkowski, told us that "Walters is refusing to debate Katie Porter on key issues because she cannot defend her record of voting 99% of the time with Donald Trump, including to raise taxes for middle-class families, allowing oil drilling off Orange County coasts, and to take away healthcare from Orange County families including those with pre-existing conditions. Mimi has repeatedly refused to participate in town hall meetings with district residents and now won’t debate the issues that matter to voters."

Hoppy

Kendra Fershee is the progressive Democrat running in northern West Virginia (WV-01, a seat occupied by entrenched Trumpist David McKinely. He doesn't want to debate. Kendra laughed when I asked her and told me he won't even say her name. She told me her campaign has "been hounding him for a debate for months; he's completely ignored every request from us, and from other groups that have asked. But on Monday, he was quoted in the WVU student newspaper saying he would debate me if there's a neutral third party host willing to do it. So, I went on the biggest radio show in the state yesterday and the (somewhat conservative) host of that show (Hoppy Kercheval) called on Rep. McKinley to debate me. Hoppy has made at least two debate request inquiries of the Congressman in the last 72 hours and has been ignored. We have also asked the Wheeling Intelligencer to inquire of Rep. McKinley (that's the paper in his hometown), which has indicated that they may be willing to host as well. This morning, the WVU student newspaper ran a story about how the Congressman has ignored Hoppy's inquiries, and the largest newspaper in the state, the Charleston Gazette Mail, is working on a second story about how none of the Republican House of Representatives candidates will debate their opponents in West Virginia.

Jess King (PA-11) finally got her conservative opponent to debate on Monday. "It took time for the hosts to nail down our opponent," she said, "but he's agreed to two more. He is refusing to do any other forums though, so we are attending them without him."

Mike Siegel's campaign arranged for the League of Women Voters chapters in Houston and Austin to moderate debates. "McCaul," he told me, "refused to participate. His lack of participation is in the context of him not holding any public events in ten years. No town halls, no opportunities to respond to questions from the public. He even refused to respond to a Houston Chronicle candidate questionnaire, so their online voting guide has nothing from him. I'm about to enter a Chronicle editorial board screening. We'll see if he shows."

Up in Maine, the biggest congressional district east of the Mississippi is up for grabs, ME-02, a largely rural, spread-out swing district. It's very helpful for voters to get an idea of who the candidates are beyond just "R" and "D," which is why debates are so important. The incumbent, Trump enabler Bruce Poliquin, actually did a debate with progressive Democrat Jared Golden. He must have been shocked when his canned talking points failed to land any punches and Golden's issue-oriented approach wont day. Poliquin immediately pulled out of the next debate.

The GOP 2018 Congressional Campaign: The Stench Of Desperation

When politicians don't have anything to say about issues that will appeal to voters they go negative in the hope that they will disgust voters enough to discourage election day participation. That's what the GOP is doing now. They read the same polls the rest of us do and they know the only way to win is to keep Democrats and independents away from the voting booth next month. Even Politico noted that the ads they're running are ugly distortions of reality. They're not meant to change any minds... just to create confusion, apprehension and disgust so that people don't want to vote. Paul Ryan's SuperPAC alone has poured an unbelievable $3 million into a smear campaign against Randy Bryce in Wisconsin hoping to persuade workers and women not to vote.

Earlier this morning Randy Bryce reminded us that Bernie and his policy agenda are extremely popular in his corner of Wisconsin. "He won 71 out of 72 precincts in the 2016 primary election. Both events he did with me packed the venues to capacity on opposite sides of the district. Having been endorsed early by Senator Sanders has been a huge help. Republicans think that the progressive ideals both of us fight to advance are 'radical.' If making sure people can see a doctor is radical or, if promising not to make cuts to Social Security is 'far left' I’ll take that title. It just shows how out of touch these extremist Republicans really are." And that's a good description of how the Republicans are trying to turn the world topsy-turvy. Paul Ryan disparages Medicare-For-All supporters as off the rails, counting on voters not remembering that he has-- for a decade-- tried to dissolve Medicaid and Medicare and whittle away at Social Security. Ryan, using the talking points all Republican have been using, blasted Democrats this week: "Democrats propose to abolish our health-care system as we know it. And it is the best representation of how far today’s Democratic Party has gone off the rails... Everyone-- no matter how much you like your plan-- would have their plan taken away. The only way to control costs would be to ration care, and restrict access to doctors and treatments. All of these decisions would be made in Washington."

None of that is true, but it doesn't stop GOP robots-- from Bruce Poliquin in Maine to Cathy McMorris Rodgers in Washington state-- from parroting the same frightening-sounding bullshit in their ads. Here's how Poliquin's progressive Democratic challenger, Jared Golden, threw Poliquin's lies right back in his face. And, by the way, the healthcare lie is far from the only way the Republicans are bullshitting the voters. 

Democratic House candidate Jason Crow received a Bronze Star for heroism in Iraq and a “lawyer of the year” award for his veterans advocacy. But according to his GOP adversaries, he has “neglected” Colorado veterans.

Virginia Democrat Abigail Spanberger spent nearly a decade fighting terrorists as an undercover CIA officer. But to hear Republicans tell it, she harbors terrorist sympathies.

Attacks ads have always been a staple of campaign season. But Republicans have twisted facts in some ads to an extraordinary degree as they fight to save their House majority, weaving narratives about Democratic candidates that are misleading at best-- or blatantly false at worst.

In several ads, military vets-- who count as some of Democrats' best recruits to defeat sitting Republicans this year-- have had their patriotism called into question. One spot insinuates that Spanberger, who is challenging Rep. Dave Brat’s (R-VA), has ties to extremists because she taught at a Saudi Arabian-funded Muslim school where two infamous terrorists once attended. The CIA not only knew about the job, but later hired Spanberger and employed her for eight years.

Democrats say the spots, aired mostly by the outside GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee, smack of desperation. In some cases, local Republicans, religious leaders and newspaper editorial boards have have denounced the attacks.

The aggressive tactics highlight a party grappling to save its majority. Many of the Democrats who've come under attack have short or nonexistent records in political office, leaving Republicans to pick over their personal lives for any scraps to use against them.

“Republicans are having a heck of a time right now, and they’re just looking to attack anywhere they think they might be able to.... throwing whatever they have at the wall to see what sticks,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) told reporters at a Bloomberg breakfast last week, calling the attacks “smears.”

Targets of the ads have called for them to be taken down, and spent time and resources trying to rebut the claims. Republicans involved in making the ads say that's exactly their intention: to keep Democrats on the defensive.

They also argue that Democrats would be doing the same thing if the roles were reversed.

"The mere fact that Democrats are complaining about CLF ads speaks to the effectiveness of the ads and the degree to which it’s taken Democratic candidates in key races off their message," CLF spokeswoman Courtney Alexander said.

Democrats argue that the charges have backfired and helped Democratic candidates raise money and gain ground on their Republican rivals. Spanberger’s campaign is now in a dead heat with Brat, according to a Sept. 24 internal poll, and raised more money after the terrorist ad launched than she did in the entire first quarter of 2017. Among likely voters, she's up 5 points, her campaigns says.

But Republicans say their Terror High ad actually helped reverse Brat's fortunes: They say he now has a narrow lead after being tied with Spanberger in August, according to their polling.

realistic polling by Monmouth

Both parties, of course, always spend heavily on opposition research to sniff out their opponents’ weaknesses and flash them before voters. But it’s one thing to highlight flaws in a candidate’s record, like Republicans have done with Wisconsin Democrat Randy Bryce’s drunk driving arrest. It’s another to connect dots that aren’t there.

CLF’s recent attack on Ohio Democrat Aftab Pureval, for instance, accuses the Indian-Tibetan, first-generation American of aiding his former employer in making “millions” by “helping Libyans reduce payments owed to families of Americans killed by Libyan terrorism.”

But Pureval wasn’t working for the Washington law firm that reached the restitution agreement when it was initially struck. When he did join the firm, Pureval worked on anti-trust litigation, not payments to the families of victims of the 1988 Lockerbie terrorist attack.

Not mentioned in the ad was the fact that former President George W. Bush backed the settlement negotiation with Libya-- and that Rep. Steve Chabot, Pureval’s GOP opponent, did not object when it was approved in the House.

Local media called the attack "misleading." And one American family who lost their father in the Libyan attack was so outraged by the video that they reached out to donate to Pureval’s campaign.

“My response to the CLF ad involved words that are best not repeated here,” Scott Rosen wrote in a letter to Pureval’s campaign. He was 5 years old when his father, Saul Mark Rosen, was killed in the Lockerbie bombing, leaving his mom to raise two children. “The attempt to connect you to the murder of my father was utterly beyond the pale."

CLF says the ad has helped Chabot stretch his lead over Pureval, according to their internal polling.

But they haven't seen the same results in other races-- particularly in Colorado, where many Republicans believe Rep. Mike Coffman is going to lose. There, CLF portrayed Crow as a willing bystander to the massive Veterans Affairs Department backlog scandal. (The group recently pulled its ads from the district.)

Crow sat on the local department’s board from 2009 to 2014, and Republicans have highlighted his absence from more than a dozen board meetings to say he’s at fault.

“While veterans suffered from the VA scandal, Crow didn’t show up for work,” one ad said. “Jason Crow neglected Colorado veterans.”

Crow’s campaign said his wife was either on bed rest due to pregnancy complications or that they’d had a new baby at the time of the missed meetings.

Backlash was swift. Local veterans who know Crow showed up at Coffman's office to protest. Crow’s campaign highlighted the thousands of pro-bono hours he’d dedicated to helping veterans with substance abuse issues, as well as the “lawyer of the year” award he received in 2010 from the Denver Bar Association for his veterans advocacy.

In Spanberger's case, CLF ran a commercial calling attention to her onetime position as a substitute teacher at the Saudi school. Spanberger never worked with the two would-be terrorists, having left the school before it came under congressional scrutiny. She later received a top-secret clearance with the CIA.

“So dangerous, even Chuck Schumer called for the school to be shut down,” the ad nonetheless warns. “But Abigail Spanberger cashed her paychecks like nothing was wrong.”

Some Republican candidates have launched similar attacks impugning the motives or patriotism of their opponents. West Virginia Republican candidate Carol Miller ran a clip of her Democratic rival, Richard Ojeda, saying “the United States of America is not the greatest country.” One vet in the spot accuses Ojeda, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, of “stepping on the graves of every dead soldier.”

What Ojeda actually said is that U.S. isn't the greatest country because homelessness is rampant, the health care system is lacking and the opioid epidemic has been allowed to fester. Ojeda issued his own ad in response, talking about the names of fallen soldiers tattooed his back.

“My military record and my love of country has come under fire … by Carol Miller,” an angry Ojeda said in the video filmed before a veterans memorial. “How dare she! A millionaire, who has enjoyed a life of privilege under the very freedoms that I have fought for.”



In New York, Republicans have accused Democratic hopeful Antonio Delgado of “attacking our democracy” because the former rapper once sung about finding peace in the Middle East. In the years-old anti-war jam, Delgado, who went on to graduate from Harvard Law School and become a Rhodes Scholar, says “God bless America, God bless Iraq, God bless us all.”

But an NRCC ad highlights only the “God bless Iraq” line. Delgado is running against vulnerable GOP Rep. John Faso.

The party has also hit Delgado for being a “big city rapper” and not “like us,” depicting the lawyer wearing a dark hoodie and playing his old rap songs that reference sex and drugs and use of the “N” word.

Nearly 20 local clergy members denounced the attacks for their racial undertones; Delgado is African-American. A local radio station said it recently pulled an ad sponsored by CLF for their “inaccuracy.” (CLF disputes that the ad was removed, arguing that PAC officials took it down of their own accord.) Even the district’s former Republican congressman, Chris Gibson, has expressed discomfort.

“Shame on you!” the religious leaders wrote to Faso, asking him to denounce the ads, which he has not done. “This tactic should be called out for what it is, a thinly veiled, racist attack for the purpose of insinuating fear in the voters in our district.”

to count the number of exclamation points, click on the image

Above is an ugly Republican Party Facebook entry from a typical GOP official-- well, not really that typical, 'cause most of them are smart enough not to do it so publicly. This was was created by a Republican precinct committeeman, Michael Kalny from Shawnee. He was stupid enough to send it to Anne Pritchett, president of the Johnson County Democratic Women’s Club. Supporters of Kevin Yoder are weepy because the Paul Ryan just tossed the Yoder campaign overboard as a lost cause. Democrat Sharice Davids is way ahead in polling.

When Republicans Like Bruce Poliquin Have No Issues Anyone Likes, They Attack... Tattoos

It was embarrassing for Congressman Bruce Poliquin (R) when Maine's Republican senior Senator, Susan Collins, decided to stand up to DC party leaders who wanted to destroy MaineCare (the local version of Medicaid). Poliquin voted "yes" and Collins voted "no." It failed and Mainers were grateful that Collins had the balls Poliquin lacks.

Poliquin ducked questions on the issue for months until he had no choice but to cast a public vote.

Then he repeated Republican talking points that were instantly exposed as false-- claiming, for example, that the bill would affect only the 7 percent of Mainers who buy insurance on the individual market, and not the tens of thousands of Mainers on Medicaid, including thousands of his constituents, who would be direct losers.

It’s important to remember that what Poliquin and the others support is not just an attack on the Medicaid expansion created by the Affordable Care Act, an aspect of the law in which Maine does not participate. But roughly a fifth of Mainers get their health care through traditional Medicaid-- and tearing that apart is central to both the House and Senate attempts to repeal the ACA.

...When the question was, "Should millions of low and moderate income Americans lose their health insurance to pay for a tax cut for the wealthy?" Collins said "no," and Poliquin said "yes."

Poliquin has voted "yes" every time he had an opportunity to re-instate the ability of insurance companies to bring back the loophole for pre-existing conditions and he has voted "yes" every time he has had the opportunity turn Medicare into a voucher system and he has voted "yes" every time he has had the opportunity to rip healthcare away from working class and middle class Mainers. That's who he is. That's what he is. So how do you run for reelection with a voting record like that?

1- You get your wealthy donors and your corporate donors to fill your campaign coffers with cash. As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline he had raised $2,998,396 to the $1,174,196 Jared Golden, his progressive Democratic opponent, had raised.

2- You get your right-wing allies to smear your opponent. Paul Ryan's shady corporately-funded SuperPAC has already spent $442,218 on ads lying about Golden.

3- You blanket the district in misleading advertising, trying to redefine an honorable opponent into someone more like... yourself.

Poliquin is desperately trying to confuse voters, claiming Golden is the anti-healthcare candidate. Republicans are pulling this crap all over the country. Mainers generally know better. Golden is running on a platform that includes Medicare-For-All, you know, the program that wants to give every American the same healthcare that people over 65 get. It's popular... even among Republican voters:

Poliquin's misleading ad claims Golden would "end Medicare as we know it." Yeah... by expanding it to all Americans. Poliquin throws in another lie, claiming that Golden wants to impose "over $32 trillion in higher costs [over a ten year period]." What Poliquin neglects to mention is that right now we spend $3.3 trillion a year on healthcare-- $33 trillion, so a trillion less, even before the all the cost savings Medicare-For-All would engender, billions annually.

Those numbers look bad for Poliquin. So the latest Republican maneuver is to do what the GOP in Texas and Nebraska are trying to do to, respectively, Beto O'Rouke and Kara Eastman, by claiming they were in rock bands when they were in high school and college. Problem: Jared wasn't in a rock band. So Poliquin and his allies went for another cheap shot-- Jared has a tattoo. The new ad calls him a "liberal" while zooming in on his "devil dog" tattoo-- which is what front line Marine veterans from his unit who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan generally get. Poliquin's version of fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq was to go get rich "working" and kissing up to big banksters on Wall Street and stealing money from people's pension funds.

The Sun Journal and virtually all the other newspapers in Maine, called Poliquin out for the new deceitful ad.

The ad, which began airing Monday, questions Golden’s opposition to the $1.5 trillion federal tax cut pushed through by Republicans last year and assails him for voting against a 2016 bill in Augusta that limited the use of welfare cash.

“No responsible media outlet should run the spot because it’s bullshit,” Bobby Reynolds, Golden’s communications director, said Monday.

Golden dismissed it Monday as “another false attack by Bruce Poliquin and his boss Paul Ryan,” the Wisconsin Republican who serves as speaker of the U.S. House.

...Golden has made no secret of his opposition to the controversial tax cut approved by Republicans shortly before Christmas. It mostly benefits corporations and the wealthy, but many ordinary families also will see a reduction in their tax bills until their portion of the tax cut expires in 2026. The break for companies is permanent.

“In the Maine Legislature,” Golden said, “I voted to lower the Maine income tax for middle-class families, and that’s a verifiable fact.”

...Golden, one of 33 state House members to vote against [a bill to prohibit food stamps to be used for tattoos], said the restrictions were unnecessary because federal rules already banned the use of the welfare cash for such items.

“I fully oppose any misuse of these funds but, unlike Bruce Poliquin, I don’t want to throw kids off of food stamps,” Golden said.

Poliquin pushed for a change in federal food assistance that would require able-bodied adults to work unless they have children under the age of 6-- a change from existing law that doesn’t include an age limit.

Golden’s [own] ad shows one large tattoo on his right arm. Among the images inked on his skin are a sun, a moon, a tree, a Celtic cross and a “devil dog” that represents his unit in the Marines, where he served combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There doesn’t seem to be any academic research about politics and tattoos, but a 2016 study of tattoos in the workplace for the Journal of Retail and Consumer Services found that consumers “have a negative reaction to body art.”

Perhaps as a consequence, there aren’t many politicians who have confessed to having a tattoo. The Huffington Post found only a few who would talk about them when it surveyed Capitol Hill in 2012.

Justin Trudeau and Jared Golden have tattoos. So?

But some political leaders have had noticeable tattoos, including Canadian leader Justin Trudeau, who has talked about a raven pictured on his left arm.

Among well-known politicians with tattoos were Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Andrew Jackson, Barry Goldwater, all men who, unlike Poliquin, served in the military. Tattoos are pretty well-accepted these days... but for conservatives like Paul Ryan and Bruce Poliquin who'd like to turn back the calendar to the 1950s, they're still a scary social taboo. Like Beto O'Rourke skateboarding. Someone should ask Poliquin if it was also a social taboo for Golden and his unit too be fighting in Afghanistan while he was getting rich on Wall Street too.

Last week, Trump's corrupt SuperPAC, America First Action, announced that it plans to pump $1 million into Poliquin's dirty campaign. Almost all of that will go towards smearing Jared Golden. See that thermometer on the right? That's so people can contribute to the campaigns of progressive Democrats who served in the military and who are now running for Congress-- like Jared. (Wisconsin Democrat Randy Bryce never did get a tattoo when he was in the Army, but did play trombone in a band when he was in high school... and skateboarded-- "but not like kids today," he added. Ryan's SuperPAC has attacked him for smoking weed and protesting in the state Capitol against anti-union legislation.)

Nancy Ohanian original caricatures-- Bryce & Golden