Never Too Late For Predictions?

 

Earlier today, I quoted part of a post from William Steding's blog, Ameritecture, Tomorrow is Almost Here. I left out two paragraphs I didn't want to start a debate about at the time:

Of course, with a nation awash in guns and hatred, there will be blood. People in Kansas have already been shooting each other over yard signs. Hopefully, incidents of ignorance and violence will remain isolated and contained. Depending on where you live, have a plan to hide until cooler heads prevail. Innocents are a bully’s first target. And, a wild-eyed steroidal idiot with an assault rifle may be itching to make his video-game fantasies come true.

When all votes have been counted, and relative calm returns, Obama’s “Hope and Change,” updated by Biden as “Build Back Better,” will return to our doorstep with Joe as its shepherd. Answer the door when you hear the bell. Take a deep breath. Take a nap. Hug yourself. Then, commit yourself anew; prepare to do the crucial work to save our future.

The new work-- saving our future-- must be founded in humility and purpose. Revenge is satisfying, but only for a moment. Evening the score will compromise unification that is so urgently needed to deal with issues like Covid-19 and climate change. Vice must be set aside in favor of virtue. Healing our scarred souls and embracing unity as our highest aim--e pluribus unum-- must become, once again, our north star. Us vs. Them and Win-Lose scenarios have no place in our collective pursuit of redemption. Hate must be put asunder. America’s restoration lies in empowering others rather than coercive schemes of dominance. 

We tried that already... after the Civil War. Instead of hanging every rebel. And the result? The virtual re-enslavement of southern blacks. An inability of our country to move forward because of heel dragging from the descendants of the ones who got away without hanging. Did you watch this video?





Did you ever read any of Hunter S. Thompson's last works, like Kingdom of Fear: Loathsome Secrets of a Star-crossed Child in the Final Days of the American Century (2004)?

We have become a Nazi monster in the eyes of the whole world, a nation of bullies and bastards who would rather kill than live peacefully. We are not just Whores for power and oil, but killer whores with hate and fear in our hearts. We are human scum, and that is how history will judge us. No redeeming social value. Just whores. Get out of our way, or we'll kill you. Who does vote for these dishonest shitheads? Who among us can be happy and proud of having all this innocent blood on our hands? Who are these swine? These flag-sucking half-wits who get fleeced and fooled by stupid little rich kids like George Bush? They are the same ones who wanted to have Muhammad Ali locked up for refusing to kill gooks. They speak for all that is cruel and stupid and vicious in the American character. They are the racists and hate mongers among us; they are the Ku Klux Klan. I piss down the throats of these Nazis. And I am too old to worry about whether they like it or not. Fuck them."

"Fuck the South. Fuck 'em. We should have let them go when they wanted to leave. But no, we had to kill half a million people so they'd stay part of our special Union. Fighting for the right to keep slaves-- yeah, those are states we want to keep. And now what do we get? We're the fucking Arrogant Northeast Liberal Elite?

How about this for arrogant: the South is the Real America? The Authentic America. Really? Cause we fucking founded this country, assholes. Those Founding Fathers you keep going on and on about? All that bullshit about what you think they meant by the Second Amendment giving you the right to keep your assault weapons in the glove compartment because you didn't bother to read the first half of the fucking sentence? Who do you think those wig-wearing lacy-shirt sporting revolutionaries were? They were fucking blue-staters, dickhead.

Boston? Philadelphia? New York? Hello? Think there might be a reason all the fucking monuments are up here in our backyard?

No, No. Get the fuck out. We're not letting you visit the Liberty Bell and fucking Plymouth Rock anymore until you get over your real American selves and start respecting those other nine amendments. Who do you think those fucking stripes on the flag are for? Nine are for fucking blue states. And it would be 10 if those Vermonters had gotten their fucking Subarus together and broken off from New York a little earlier. Get it? We started this shit, so don't get all uppity about how real you are you Johnny-come-lately "Oooooh I've been a state for almost a hundred years" dickheads. Fuck off.

Arrogant? You wanna talk about us Northeasterners being fucking arrogant? What's more American than arrogance? Hmmm? Maybe horsies? I don't think so. Arrogance is the fucking cornerstone of what it means to be American. And I wouldn't be so fucking arrogant if I wasn't paying for your fucking bridges, bitch. All those Federal taxes you love to hate? It all comes from us and goes to you, so shut up and enjoy your fucking Tennessee Valley Authority electricity and your fancy highways that we paid for. And the next time Florida gets hit by a hurricane you can come crying to us if you want to, but you're the ones who built on a fucking swamp. "Let the Spanish keep it, it's a shithole," we said, but you had to have your fucking orange juice.

The next dickwad who says, "It's your money, not the government's money" is gonna get their ass kicked. Nine of the ten states that get the most federal fucking dollars and pay the least... can you guess? Go on, guess. That's right, motherfucker, they're red states. And eight of the ten states that receive the least and pay the most? It's too easy, asshole, they're blue states. It's not your money, assholes, it's fucking our money. What was that Real American Value you were spouting a minute ago? Self reliance? Try this for self reliance: buy your own fucking stop signs, assholes.

Let's talk about those values for a fucking minute. You and your Southern values can bite my ass because the blue states got the values over you fucking Real Americans every day of the goddamn week. Which state do you think has the lowest divorce rate you marriage-hyping dickwads? Well? Can you guess? It's fucking Massachusetts, the fucking center of the gay marriage universe. Yes, that's right, the state you love to tie around the neck of anyone to the left of Strom Thurmond has the lowest divorce rate in the fucking nation. Think that's just some aberration? How about this: 9 of the 10 lowest divorce rates are fucking blue states, asshole, and most are in the Northeast, where our values suck so bad. And where are the highest divorce rates? Care to fucking guess? 10 of the top 10 are fucking red-ass we're-so-fucking-moral states. And while Nevada is the worst, the Bible Belt is doing its fucking part.

But two guys making out is going to fucking ruin marriage for you? Yeah? Seems like you're ruining it pretty well on your own, you little bastards.

Oh, but that's ok because you go to church, right? I mean you do, right? Cause we fucking get to hear about it every goddamn year at election time. Yes, we're fascinated by how you get up every Sunday morning and sing, and then you're fucking towers of moral superiority. Yeah, that's a workable formula. Maybe us fucking Northerners don't talk about religion as much as you because we're not so busy sinning, hmmm? Ever think of that, you self-righteous assholes? No, you're too busy erecting giant stone tablets of the Ten Commandments in buildings paid for by the fucking Northeast Liberal Elite. And who has the highest murder rates in the nation? It ain't us up here in the North, assholes.

Well this gravy train is fucking over. Take your liberal-bashing, federal-tax-leaching, confederate-flag-waving, holier-than-thou, hypocritical bullshit and shove it up your ass. And no, you can't have your fucking convention in New York next time.

Fuck off.

That said, let's look at predictions for today from Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen. I see a landslide; he doesn't but he is clear that Biden "will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House." He believes that Trump will lose every state Hillary won and lose 7 states that he won in 2016-- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin + NE-02 (but, according to him, not ME-02).

As far as the Senate goes, he's on the straight and narrow, predicting losses for Martha McSally (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Doug Jones (D-AL)... so the narrowest of Democratic Senate majorities, dependent on right-of-center Dems like Manchin, Sinema, Warner, Carper, Hickenlooper, Kelly, Cunningham... to do anything. In other words, the progressive agenda is going nowhere. Both Georgia's Senate seats will be decided in run-offs.

In the House he predicts 30 pickups and 10 losses. I actually wish he was right about the Democratic looses in the House-- Dems would be better off without them-- but he's wrong, probably on all ten! The ten seats he sees the Dems losing Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)-- the most likely to lose of any of them but I bet he hangs on-- TJ Cox (New Dem-CA), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (New Dem-FL), Abby Finkenauer (de facto New Dem-IA), Xochitl Torres-Small (Blue Dog-NM), Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY), Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY), Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK), Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC) and Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT). I hope he's right on some of them but if I had to bet, I'd bet they all are reelected and then lose in 2022.

The 30 districts he thinks are Democratic pick-ups start with the 2 gimmes: the two ungerryamndered North Carolina red seats, NC-02 and NC-06. Then (+ his predictions of new members):

• AK- Alyse Galvin
• AZ-06- Hiral Tipirneni
• AR-02- Joyce Elliott
• CA-25- Christy Smith
• CO-03- Diane Mitsch Bush
• GA-07- Carolyn Bourdeaux
• IL-13- Betsy Londrigan
• IN-05- Christina Hale
• MI-03- Hillary Scholten
• MI-06- Jon Hoadley
• MN-01- Dan Feehan
• MO-02- Jill Schupp
• MT- Kathleen Williams
• NE-02- Kara Eastman
• NJ-02- Amy Kennedy
• NY-02- Jackie Gordon
• NY-24- Dana Balter
• NC-08- Patricia Timmons
• NC-11- Moe Davis
• OH-01- Kate Schroder
• PA-01- Christina Finello
• PA-10- Eugene DePasquale
• TX-10- Mike Siegel
• TX-21- Wendy Davis
• TX-22- Sri Kulkarni
• TX-23- Gina Ortiz Jones
• TX-24- Candace Valenzuela
• VA-05- Cameron Webb

I want to compare two freshmen from Orange County, California-- Katie Porter and Harley Rouda. In 2018, Katie's district (CA-45) handed her a 158,906 (52.1%) to 146,383 (47.9%) win over incumbent Mimi Walters. Meanwhile Rouda beat the notorious Russian spy Dana Rohrabacher 157,837 (53.6) to 136,899 (46.4%). Rouda won bigger. But he joined the New Dems and has established himself as a do-nothing waste of a seat who is firmly ensconced as a pointless member the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. He's done exactly nothing and there is no reason to reelect him except that his Republican challenger is worse. Katie, on the other hands so beloved that the Republicans figured out she is unbeatable. She has distinguished herself in Congress as a total asset and she is untouchable.

This year Katie raised $15 million to her opponent's $1,265,078. The DCCC quickly saw she needed no outside help and contributed $840 in independent money in her race, in other words, nothing. Rouda, on the other hand, does nothing but beg for money day in and day out has only been able to raise $5,426,654, slightly less than his opponent. Because he's been such a total waste and with nothing to offer to anyone (except her donors) the DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC had to rush to save his worthless hide by spending nearly $10 million on his race. He'll win-- and probably lose in 2022-- but is it really worth $10 million to keep him. Why not just recruit talented and dedicated leaders like Katie Porter instead of Republican-retreads like Harley Rouda?

Most of the DCCC recruits this cycle are as bad as-- or worse-- the Harley Rouda. Schumer's Senate recruits are generally even worse. I llooked over Olsen's predictions and bolded the names of the candidates who are more like Katie Porter and less like Harley Rouda. Keep it so you can check up on me in 2 years.

Asterisked-- The Worst President In History by Nancy Ohanian

Masks For All? Good Luck With That

Huntington Beach is in Orange County, between Los Angeles and San Diego. It's the population center of the 48th congressional district and if you want to know how a reactionary Russian spy and psychotic bigot like Dana Rohrabacher could have been elected to Congress 15 times... just watch the video above and try to get into the heads of his people. The current congressman, freshman Harley Rouda isn't nearly as bad as Rohrabacher. He beat Rohrabacher in the anti-red wave of 2018-- 157,837 (54%) to 136,899 (46%). Rouda ran as a Democrat, but he isn't really a Democrat; he's a moderately conservative Republican who calls himself a New Dem and has quickly earned himself an "F" rating from ProgressivePunch-- 64.47% (out of 100).

CA-48 was almost equally divided in the 2016 presidential race, Hillary edging Señor Trumpanzee 47.9% to 46.2%. The one from that 46.2% cohort introduced themselves in that video. Have you watched it yet. Watch it; it's fun tragic and sad and will help you understand why the U.S. may well wind up with marshall law-- and whole lot of conspiracy theories... a dangerous thing in a country with so many people with semi-automatic weapons.

There is tremendous resistance to social distancing and mask wearing there-- and very aggressively so. The county has been hit hard by the pandemic but that doesn't stop a very vocal part of that 46.2% cohort from claiming it's all a hoax. On Friday the county reported 710 more confirmed COVID cases, bringing their total to 33,358. There have been 556 deaths in Orange County so far.

Orange County doesn't have any Republicans left in their congressional delegation-- unless you still insist on counting Rouda as a Republican-- but it's not what I would call a safely blue county. Still, Bernie won the county in the March primary-- and with a slightly larger margin than he did statewide. Yesterday, Bernie sent a note to his followers-- in Orange County and everywhere else-- about masks and his legislation that would make masks available to everyone in the country. "Tragically, because of the inept leadership of Donald Trump," Bernie wrote, "the United States is losing the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many thousands of our fellow Americans have unnecessarily died or become ill. Trump has rejected science with regard to the pandemic. We will not. Together, we will fight back and implement policies based on science which will protect the health and well-being of the American people. That's why I am urgently calling for a simple and inexpensive way to protect Americans during the coronavirus pandemic: Masks for All." He explained the bill he's hoping to get through the Senate:

Our goal must be to manufacture and distribute high-quality masks to medical professionals and to every man, woman and child in this country at no cost. And next week, I will introduce legislation to do just that.

...Here is what the legislation would do:

• Direct the Trump administration to use the Defense Production Act to produce and deliver three high-quality, reusable masks to every person in the country.
• Work with state and local governments to deliver masks to homeless shelters, jails, detention centers, testing sites, post offices, pharmacies and other congregate-care settings.

The science is clear: Wearing a mask is the best way to protect ourselves from the coronavirus and save lives, and the widespread use of masks will get Americans back to work sooner and reunite families who have stayed apart.

As the United States reports a record number of new cases-- 4 million total confirmed cases announced this week-- research about mask wearing shows that masks are crucial to decreasing the spread of the coronavirus. When the virus can't easily find hosts, it dies out.

South Korea, one of the more successful countries in responding to the pandemic, began the process of procuring high-quality masks in late February and provided them affordably to its citizens by partnering with pharmacies across the country. Taiwan, the Czech Republic, Germany, Vietnam and dozens of other countries have also demonstrated that as mask wearing became commonplace in public, coronavirus cases were contained. And only when the virus is contained can our society finally go back to normal.

Other countries have successfully provided masks to their people, and now it is time for the United States to do the same.

Not only will widespread mask wearing help save lives-- it can help slow our growing economic crisis as well. One estimate says that widespread use of masks could be worth up to $1 trillion to our economy by preventing shutdowns and getting people back to work earlier.





To make enough high-quality masks for all Americans, this legislation requires the administration to invoke the Defense Production Act, which was written explicitly for these purposes. This will mandate that manufacturers put in place the additional capacity necessary to meet the needs of the public and provide assistance to companies who want to begin producing masks or scale up production. Communities hard hit by job losses could and should benefit greatly from these new employment opportunities.

Unfortunately, given Trump's anti-science mentality, it is absolutely clear that we cannot wait for this administration to take action... Let us not forget: Our country is facing a series of unprecedented crises, but we will get through them as long as we stand together.

Watch this video from the tweet below to better understand what America is up against when it comes to the 46.2% OC cohort deciding that the best way to own the libs is to spread the contagion.

Up the road a bit is Los Angeles. Eric Garcetti also sent an e-mail out yesterday warning the residents that "COVID-19 is not going away anytime soon. It will be with us-- and remain a threat-- for the foreseeable future." He rates it a threat level orange, meaning that "the virus is a danger to all of us and continues to spread throughout the community. In order to stay safe, we need to continue wearing masks, avoid gatherings, wash our hands frequently, and keep physical distance from others... Wearing a mask is particularly important and will help to keep our community safe and reopen our economy.

Orange County, This Coming November

Katie Porter-- a leader

There are some good politicians trying to do a good job through this. And then there are the nightmares like Trump and the Trumpists. Like Trump, governor Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Kevin Stitt (R-OK) and, especially, Ron DeSantis (R-FL) make everybody else look relatively good. There's a general consensus that DeSantis is the worst governor in the country, at least in terms of doing the most harm to the most people. Like Trump, who consistently-- even arrogantly-- ignored all warnings, DeSantis, reported the NY Times, helped infect the whole country due entirely to his political cowardice.

Weeks before Florida ordered people to stay at home, the coronavirus was well into its insidious spread in the state, infecting residents and visitors who days earlier had danced at beach parties and reveled in theme parks. Only now, as people have gotten sick and recovered from-- or succumbed to-- Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has the costly toll of keeping Florida open during the spring break season started to become apparent.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has blamed travelers from New York, Europe and other places for seeding the virus in the state. But the reverse was also true: People got sick in Florida and took the infection back home.

The exact number of people who returned from leisure trips to Florida with the coronavirus may never be known. Cases as far away as California and Massachusetts have been linked to the Winter Party Festival, a beachside dance party and fund-raiser for the L.G.B.T.Q. community held March 4-10. Another California man died after going to Orlando for a conference and then to a packed Disney World. Two people went to Disney and later got relatives sick in Florida and Georgia.

Slow action by Florida’s governor left local leaders scrambling to make their own closure decisions during one of the busiest and most profitable times of the year for a state with an $86 billion tourism economy. The result was that rules were often in conflict, with one city canceling a major event while a neighboring city allowed another event to continue.

DeSantis finally took action on April 1-- a full month too late. Florida has over 18,500 confirmed cases and nearly 500 deaths, with the epidemic still expanding in the state. Tectonix, a data analytics and visualization firm showed how cellphones that were on one Fort Lauderdale beach at the beginning of March spread across the country-- up the Eastern Seaboard and further West-- over the next two weeks. DeSantis is literally, along with Trump, the Typhoid Mary of this pandemic.

The Orange County in the headline, though, is not Orange County the Orlando, Florida Orange County-- which luckily for the people who live there, started moving in the right direction before DeSantis did. I have the other big Orange County in mind-- southern California's.

Orange County was once the heartland of the Republican Party-- long before Texas or the rest of the Deep South could be counted on. America can thank Orange County for the Nixon and Reagan presidencies. And then Trump happened. In 2016, primary day looked like this:

• Trump- 146,888
• Hillary- 123,723
• Bernie- 100,836
• Kasich- 21,285
• Cruz- 16,844

In November, Hillary beat Trump county-wide-- 556,544 (51.0%) to 472,669 (43.3%). That was the first time Orange County went for a Democrat since 1936-- FDR's first reelection. In 2012 Romney beat Obama 541,592 (53.0%) to 457,077 (44.8%). That was quite a turn-around! And 2 years later, in the 2018 midterms, all 4 Orange County red districts-- each of which Romney had won-- flipped blue.

• CA-39 (even PVI):

Gil Cisneros (New Dem/"ex"-GOP)- 126,002 (51.6%)
Young Kim (R)- 118,391 (48.4%)
[Cisneros narrowly lost the Orange County part of the district but made up for it by winning way ahead in the Los Angeles part of the district.]

• CA-45 (R+3):

Katie Porter (D)- 158,906 (52.1%)
Mimi Waters (R)- 146,383 (47.9%)

• CA-48 (R+4):

Harley Rouda (New Dem/"ex"-GOP)-157,837 (53.6%)
Dana Rohrabacher (R)- 136,899 (46.4%)

• CA-49 (R+1):

Mike Levin (D)- 166,453 (56.4%)
Diane Harkey (R)- 128,577 (43.6%)
[Levin lost the Orange Co. part of the district but cleaned up in the San Diego part.]

Last week Kyle Konik from Sabato's Crystal Ball took a look at the California general election races and changed the rating towards the GOP in 3 of them, declaring incumbents Devin Nunes and Tom McClinton (neither with a strong opponent) as "safe" from likely Republican, and putting the open Katie Hill seat (CA-25) from "leans" Dem to "toss-up."

I'm not going to get into those races here, although I do want to mention that the voters registration plus Trump on the top of the ticket should make the district relatively safe for a Democrat, despite the fact that the Democratic establishment picked an unimaginably bad candidate who will inspire absolutely no one but her friends and whoever happens to like corporate Democrats from the Republican wing of the party and who stand for nothing at all and have nothing to offer other than a "D" next to their name-- a "D" than will turn into an "F" score once she starts voting.

This is how they rate the reelection chances of the 4 Orange County Democratic incumbents we mentioned above:

• Cisneros- CA-39 leans D
• Porter- CA-45- likely D
• Rouda- CA-48- leans D
• Levin- CA-49- safe D

In explaining why the ratings fall this way Kondik uses irrelevant pundit-speak bullshit like this: "Republicans have never won a district where they won less than 50% of the two-party primary voting." What he doesn't do is take into account the jobs the incumbents have been doing. Cisneros and Rouda, the two conservative "ex"-Republicans, are just sitting and doing nothing at all but calling campaign contributors and asking for money. Each is a complete waste of a seat, back-benchers with nothing at all to offer anyone. Contrast that with Levin, who has a relatively decent voting record and an interest in several important policies. Or, better yet, contrast Rouda's and Cisneros' inertness with Katie Porter's activism and brilliance. She is widely considered one of the most worthwhile and accomplished freshmen from the 2018 class. Her constituents-- not the hardcore Trumpists of course, but everyone else-- have come to love her and respect her. Voters in Irvine, Tustin, Villa Park, Mission Viejo, Laguna Woods, Rancho Santa Margarita, Anaheim Hills and Lake Forest have something the others don't-- a member of Congress to actually be proud of.

As of the February 12 FEC filing deadline, Katie had raised $3,825,561, 29.79% from small grassroots donors. The three other OC freshmen:

Rouda- $2,339,456 (8.91%)
Levin $2,046,561 (12.68%)
Cisneros- $1,415,849 (9.04%)

Cisneros and Rouda may sit on the phone all day asking rich people and PAC executives for money, but by primarily doing an outstanding job, Porter has raised more (combined) and has raised gigantically more from small donors who appear to appreciate what she is doing for them, their families and the country. This isn't the kind of information that pundits use in their always-wrong ratings.

Mike Levin has two twitter accounts, one with 111,600 followers and one with 15,100 followers. Harley Rouda has two twitter accounts as well, one with 77,300 followers and one with 14,000 followers. Gil Cisneros also has two twitter accounts, one with 15,800 followers and one with 9,248 followers. So all together 243,048 followers between the 3 of them. And Katie? One account with 204,200 and one with 442,000-- a total of 642,200. Maybe an indication someone gives a damn about what she's doing in Congress?

Below is the third most-viewed Katie Porter YouTube clip-- with 843,000 views. There are 2 clips with over a million views each and 8 with over half a million. None are ads or about election campaigns. Harley Rouda has 3 videos with over 100,000 views-- all paid campaign ads. Almost all of his YouTubes are campaign clips and not many people have watched any of them. Cisneros-- the self-funding lottery winner-- is even worse, with no YouTubes more than just a handful of people have watched and, like Rouda, almost all just about campaigning.

Congress Needs More Members In The Squad But That Isn't The Only Way To Make A Valuable Contribution: Katie Porter

The CNN.com headline yesterday, Katie Porter isn't part of 'The Squad.' But the freshman House Democrat is stirring up trouble for Trump, was... meh. True, Katie Porter isn't part of The Squad. And true, Katie is "stirring up trouble for Trump." But... there's a lot more to it. Each member of The Squad can boast a ProgressivePunch crucial vote record of "A"-- three of them, perfect 100% scores, in fact. Katie's ProgressivePunch crucial vote score isn't as robust. And instead of their A, hers is F. Here are their raw scores plus the PVI of their districts:

• Ayanna Pressley- 100 (D+34)
• Rashida Tlaib- 100 (D+33)
• AOC- 100 (D+29)
• Ilhan Omar- 97.50 (D+26)
• Katie Porter- 72.50 (R+3)

Let's put that another way. Republicans didn't bother running candidates against Ayanna or Rashida. AOC beat Republican Anthony Pappas 110,318 (78.2%) to 19,202 (13.6%). Ilhan beat Republican Jennifer Zielinski 267,703 (78.0%) to 74,440 (21.7%). Katie had a more series problem. She ran against entrenched Republican incumbent Mimi Walters (after beating a DCCC-preferred New Dem in the primary). Walters spent $5,244,605 (+ $7,758,258 town in against Porter by Republican outside groups). In the end-- Porter managed to beat Walters 158,906 (52.1%) to 146,383 (47.9%). Trump did badly in all 5 districts-- 11.9% in Ayanna's, 18.1% in Rashida's, 18.5% in Ilhan's, 19.8% in AOC's... and 44.4% in Katie's. I'm not making an excuses for her voting record, but it's a lot easier to vote straight down the line progressive in a district where only 12% of the people back Trump that in one where 44% do.

On the other hand, few freshmen have been as valuable in their committees as Porter has been in the House Financial Services Committee, where she has used her expertise to hold banksters' and Trump appointed regulators' feet to the fire. And, as Katie Lobosco, the CNN.com reporter put it, "she's emerged as a viral star when it comes to how banks and the government treat the working poor and puncturing Trump's claims about the economy. She's carving out a Warren-esque role for herself that's included asking top officials do basic math under oath. Her targets so far have included major Wall Street players like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Equifax CEO Mark Begor and now-former Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan."

It was March when Porter grilled Sloan-- who was already facing calls from Warren and others to step down-- at a House Financial Services Committee hearing about Wells Fargo's numerous scandals over fake accounts, inappropriate mortgage fees, and charging borrowers for auto insurance they didn't need.

When it came her turn, Porter began by asking why the public should trust Sloan's promises that Wells Fargo was changing its ways. Then, she ducked under the table to bring up a poster board printed with huge text, displaying what Wells Fargo attorneys had said in court.

"Why Mr. Sloan, if you don't mind me asking, are your lawyers in federal court arguing that those exact statements I read are quote 'paradigmatic examples of non-actionable corporate puffery, on which no reliable investor could rely,'" she asked.

"I don't know why our lawyers are arguing that," Sloan responded.

Porter kept going.

"It's convenient for your lawyers to deflect blame in court, and say your rebranding campaign can be ignored as hyperbolic marketing, but when then you come to Congress, you want us to take you at your word," she said. "And I think that's the disconnect, that's why the American public has trouble trusting Wells Fargo."

Two weeks later, Wells Fargo announced Sloan was out.

Porter has targeted top Trump administration officials, too. She whipped out a copy of the text book she wrote, "Modern Consumer Law," to quiz Consumer Financial Protection Bureau chief Kathy Kraninger. She then posed a hypothetical math problem: A single mom takes out a two-week $200 payday loan with an origination fee of $20, at a rate of 10%. What is the APR? One of Porter's aides handed Kraninger a calculator.

She didn't do the math, even after Porter repeated the question, asking her to ballpark the calculation.

"I understand where you're getting. At the end of the day, the issue is certainly: When you actually are able to repay that loan and whether or not you take out an additional loan," Kraninger said.

"This is not a math exercise, though. This is a policy conversation," she added.

This week, in her office, Porter said she hopes the video clip gets people thinking about the issue.

"Like, what does it mean that calculating the APR is so hard that the vast majority of us can't do it? I guess it means that those disclosures that do it for you are pretty useful," she said.

In June, Porter asked Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson why the Federal Housing Administration is "lousy at servicing mortgages." When Carson said he had not had any discussions about that issue but that he would "look it up," Porter pushed further, asking him to explain the rate of foreclosures among those with mortgages backed by his department. She used the term REO-- which stands for real estate-owned, and refers to properties owned by a lender after an unsuccessful foreclosure-- an acronym she didn't expect to stump the head of the agency tasked with monitoring them.

"Do you know what an REO is?" Porter asked Carson.

Carson replied, "An Oreo?"

"No, not an Oreo," Porter said. "An R-E-O. REO."




Video of the exchange went viral and Carson attempted to laugh it off by sending the Congresswoman a box of the cookies.

Porter says her goal isn't to highlight incompetence, but instead to make esoteric topics more accessible-- like she did in the consumer finance law classes she taught at the University of California, Irvine.

"What I did as a professor is not that different than what I do in hearings," Porter said this week.

An average voter might not be able to articulate their position on payday loans, she said, "but when you start talking about that hypothetical exchange I had with Kraninger, people began to engage."

Like Warren, she believes that debates about protecting the ability to make a living, buy a home, and afford college are really conversations about the "heart and soul of America."

Her back-and-forth with Dimon, she said, was meant to highlight the issue of CEO pay disparity. Porter ran through a hypothetical Chase bank employee's budget, this time with a white board.

"She's short $567, what would you suggest she do?" asked the bank CEO.

"I don't know, I'd have to think about that," Dimon said.

Whether or not the professor-turned-congresswoman can turn her unique way of questioning government officials and Wall Street executives into making real legislative change remains to be seen. A bicameral bill she brought forth with Democratic Sens. Warren, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Tom Udall of New Mexico would bolster the power of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau so that it could oversee student loan servicers. Porter has also introduced legislation with Harris that would strengthen the power of state attorneys general to monitor banks.

So far none of these bills have major support from Republicans. But a bill she introduced that would raise the civil penalties assessed to security law violators was marked up by committee last week and a similar Senate bill is cosponsored by Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley. Two of her other bills-- one on mental health and the other addressing homecare for seniors-- have some support from across the aisle.

The Democrat could be vulnerable in her reelection bid. When she won in 2018, it was the first time her Southern California district had gone blue since its creation in 1983. That was in part because two-term incumbent Republican Mimi Walters was consistently voting in line with Trump in a district Clinton won by five percentage points.

But last month, Porter became one of the first Democrats who won Republican districts in 2018 to come out in support of impeaching Trump. The move seemed to win her some support. Her campaign brought in more than $1 million in the second quarter, out-fundraising many other vulnerable Democrats.

Porter said she is working to be a voice for families concerned about how they're going to pay the bills, something she believes Trump's candidacy also tapped into.

"The financial instability and sometimes insecurity that families feel, deeply motivates how they respond politically," Porter said last week.

"I think one thing he (Trump) played into was fear about 'Am I going to be able to make ends meet, and is there going be a job for my kids?' Those are real concerns, and as a mom I have them, too."

So far Katie has half a dozen GOP opponents running against her in the open primary, alphabetically Deputy District Attorney Ray Gennawey, Yorba Linda City Councilor and Deputy Attorney General Peggy Huang, random person Julie Proctor, Mission Viejo City Councilman Greg Raths, Laguna Hills City Councilman Don Sedgwick, Orange County Board of Education Member Lisa Sparks ad a second random person, Brenton Woolworth. And some of them are raising real money:

• Don Sedgwick: $621,120
• Peggy Huang (self-funder)- $263,791
• Greg Raths (self funder)- $209,770
• Lisa Sparks Triggers- $151,251
• Ray Gennawey- $73,210
• Brenton Woolworth- $8,845

But, speaking of The Squad, with the Republican Party having nothing to run on, they've decided to take their racism and xenophobia and turn it into an issue, an issue that shows the public exactly who and what they are. This is from the Illinois Republican Party. I have a feeling the California GOP is going to back away from using it, but... who really knows for sure. It looks like the kind of thing that Don Sedgwick and Greg Rath would absolutely love.

#3 In Our Series About The Freshmen: What About Katie Porter?

Last cycle, the NRCC was so certain that they would hold CA-45 in Orange County that they didn't even bother putting incumbent Mimi Walters into their Patriot Program for vulnerable House members. That may have been a mistake. The district, which went into the race with a PVI of R+3, had given Romney a 55-43% win over Obama but gave Hillary 49% to Trump's 44%. With a $92,378 median income, it's the 13th richest congressional district in the country. Ethnically, it's 53.2% White, 22.4% Asian. 18.7% Latino and 1.7% Black. It seemed safer than any of the other Orange County districts. The GOP hadn't really thought that every one of them would get caught up in the anti-red/anti-Trump 2018 wave. But they did. Walters lost to first-time candidate Katie Porter:

Porter's campaign was largely based on her promise to "to hold Donald Trump and the powerful special interests in Washington accountable on behalf of Orange County families" and her pledge to support Medicare-For-All. She has signed on as an original co-sponsor of Pramila Jayapal's new-and-improved Medicare-For-All Act and her work in the House Financial Services Committee holding the Wall Street special interests' feet to the fire has become her trademark already.

Katie was backed by Blue America and we were a little nonplused when her voting record quickly started diverging from progressives. Even now, her ProgressivePunch crucial vote score is nothing to write home about-- a "D," tied with 5 New Dems, like Susie Lee, Chrissy Houlahan and Dean Phillips. An endorsement committee of a board I'm on asked me what was wrong and if we should consider not re-endorsing her. My advise based on two things-- 1- that she is doing incredible work in her committee and 2- that there are still too few votes to make a decision like that, even if we'd rather see her voting with AOC and Mike Levin (in the district next door) than like conservatives like Lee, Houlahan and Phillips. They have nothing going for them-- just the poor voting record-- while she is fulfilling her campaign promise to hold special interests accountable... and in a way few freshman members can match.

Blue America is still watching and waiting to see how her first year looks before we re-endorse. But the other board... I voted yes, to endorse again. I suspect Blue America will as well. She may need the help too. There are already 4 Republicans in the primary, Don Sedgwick, a Laguna Hills City Councilman, who has raised big money ($140,977), Ray Gennawey, Mission Viego Mayor Greg Raths and Yorba Linda City Councilwoman Peggy Huang. At one point, Mimi Walters said she would like a rematch and filed paper work with the FEC but she's been quiet and hasn't raised any money so far. Voter registration in CA-45 favors Republicans by about 5 points over Democrats.



She has roughed up congressional witnesses in her committee, like billionaire Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorganChase and Well Fargo CEO Tim Sloan, as well as the top dogs at Equifax and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. She's already considered the best financial affairs interrogator in Congress. But aside from making a name for herself for nailing banksters' and Trump officials' hides to the wall-- watch the 3 videos on this page-- Porter has raised an impressive $416,122.85 for her reelection campaign.

When compulsive liar and Trumpist press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders asserted last week that congressional Democrats are not "smart enough" to review Trump’s tax returns, Porter went on CNN to respond and offered to "take that bet anytime... I’m trained in tax law. I’m a legal professor. I’m ready to take a look." Huckabee hasn't brought the taxes over for her to look at-- nor, apparently chastened-- has she responded in any other way.

Did The Anti-Red Wave Falter In Orange County-- Or Are Voters Wise To What A Blue Dog Is?

Harry Truman has a warning for today's Democratic establishment: "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time."

Yesterday was election day in a huge swathe of inland Orange County, the 3rd supervisorial district. And the big question has been-- is the big anti-red/anti-Trump wave the swept Orange County clean of Republicans in Congress still in effect? With counting still proceeding this morning, the question remains unanswered.. 6 Republicans and 1 Blue Dog Democrat, former Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, competed for the seat. As of this morning, Irvine Mayor Don Wagner, the establishment Republican pick, is leading in what turned out to be an extraordinarily low turn-out election.

• Donald Wagner (R)- 28,902 (41.9%)
• Loretta Sanchez (Blue Dog)- 25,489 (37.0%)
• Kristine Murray (R)- 5,130 (7.4%)
• Larry Bales (R)- 3,830 (5.6%)
• Deborah Pauly (R)- 3,720 (5.4%)
• Kim-Thy "Katie" Hoang Bayliss (R)- 1,314 (1.9%)
• Katherine Daigle (R)- 584 (0.8%)

Sanchez, the 59 year old Blue Dog won an Orange County House seat in 1996-- when she switched parties from Republican to Democrat-- by ever so narrowly beating GOP crackpot B-1 Bob Dornan-- becoming the first Democrat to represent Orange County in Congress within living memory. She didn't run for her seat in 2016, instead running, unsuccessfully, for the U.S. Senate against Kamala Harris, losing everywhere, including Orange County. She may yet pull this out of the hat as counting goes on-- but it doesn't look likely.

The district includes a big chunk of central Orange County--Anaheim, Tustin, Irvine, Yorba Linda, Villa Park, Anaheim Hills and Orange as well as unincorporated communities like North Tustin and the canyons. The seat became open in November when Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R) was elected OC district attorney. These areas flipped blue in the November congressional elections, ousting Mimi Walters and replacing her with Katie Porter, an outright progressive.

If only a real Democrat had run instead of a GOP-lite Blue Dog, we would have won," an OC activist from Irvine told me. Candidates like Loretta don't excite anyone to even bother to get out and vote. She's barely a Democrat and people know it... if the party nominates Joe Biden-- you call him Status Quo Joe on your blog-- it'll be the same thing... As much as people hate Trump, there will be many who just don't want another more-of-the-same corporate creep like Biden. A Democrat would have beaten Wagner today. I hope the Democratic Party learned a lesson, though I sincerely doubt they did.

The only Democrat on the board is Doug Chaffee, who just won election in the 4th district in November-- part of the Blue Wave that devastated Orange County's Republican Party and swept many Democrats into office. Sanchez's race was supposed to be a test case for the wave's staying power. A Republican-lite candidate, despite what the paid-off Democratic Establishment always insists, is absolutely the wrong way to go.

There was a small Republican ballot registration advantage and of the 235,714 vote-by-mail ballots issued by the OC Registrar of Voters, 81,069 went to Republicans, 74,614 went to Democrats and 71,003 went to independents. Democrats had to win over the bulk of independents to have duplicated what Katie Porter did in ousting Mimi Walters 4 months ago. "Ex"-Republican Blue Dog Loretta Sanchez was hardly the candidate to accomplish that.

In an essay at Truthout earlier today, "Speaking Truth to Power" Is No Substitute for Taking Power, Norman Solomon was probably referring to presidential candidates with this closing statement: "Right now, ending GOP rule is necessary-- and also insufficient. Being 'better than Republicans' is a low bar that most Democratic candidates clear with ease. But quests for social justice, human rights, environmental protection, civil liberties and peace will require high standards that only grassroots power can achieve." But this is equally true up and down the ballot-- as Democrats in Orange County experienced yesterday.

Its Own Penchant For Appealing To Racists Killed Off The California Republican Party. The Same Thing Will Happen In Texas

Still Not Working For Them

“The California Republican Party isn’t salvageable at this time,” wrote former Assembly Republican leader Kristin Olsen this week. “The Grand Old Party is dead-- partly because it has failed to separate itself from today’s toxic, national brand of Republican politics.” She tried to blame Trump, rather than the hateful zombies at the base of the party, lured by the messaging of people like herself as much as by Trump. The party was headed to the garbage heap of history when Trump was still calling himself a Democrat. Fortunately for Democrats, many Republicans have an even worse way of looking at the party’s demise-- one that will only make the hole they’re in deeper and less escapable. Former state party chair Shawn Steele, a member of the RNC, argues that it wasn’t Trump who lost Orange County for the party. He laid the blame on millions of dollars in “dark money” raised by Democrats, who he said were aided by better organization and help from the tech industry in Silicon Valley. And-- without any substantiation-- Steele also claimed Democratic voter registration drives produced “borderline fraudulent turnout rates” in some key districts. As long as the GOP steeps itself in that kind of delusion, it will never get back on its feet.

No California seats flipped from blue to red, or even came close to that, despite some corruption issues hanging over a few of the less savory members of Team Blue. These are the California seats that did flip this cycle-- every one of them from red to blue:

• CA-10 (Central Valley)- Josh Harder will be replacing Jeff Denham
• CA-25 (Santa Clarita/Antelope Valley)- Katie Hill will be replacing Steve Knight
• CA-45 (central Orange County)- Katie Porter will be replacing Mimi Walters
• CA-48 (coastal Orange County)- Harley Rouda will be replacing Dana Rohrabacher
• CA-49 (Orange County/San Diego)- Mike Levin will be replacing Darrell Issa.

As it stands right now, Gil Cisneros is likely to win in CA-39, C.J. Cox may replace David Valadao in CA-21 and there is even a remote chance that Ammar Campa-Najjar will wind up beating Druncan Hunter in CA-50. The Orange County before and after map is startling-- especially to Republicans. As I’ve said many times, what Bavaria was for the Nazi Party, Orange County was for the Republican Party. And, they’ve been losing ground there year by year, one district at a time until… now there are none! [NOTE: Last yesterday, Gil Cisneros finally did beat Republican Young Kim, meaning there are now no Republicans representing Orange County in Congress-- just six Democrats. This is a political earthquake.]

Statewide, Republican registration numbers have dropped so precipitously, that they now rank lower than decline-to-state voters. Last year, the California GOP delegation in the House was the biggest. That’s over… probably for the foreseeable future. Even if Valadao survives, he has only taken 51% of the vote and he can expect a stronger and more focused campaign against him in 2020. Hunter-- disgraced and likely to be headed to prison-- will probably resign before the term ends. A special election might go poorly for Republicans who sold voters on Hunter’s supposed “innocence.”

Over the weekend, reporting for Politico, Carla Marinucci wrote that Republicans are lashing out at the state party in the wake of the disaster. “Near political annihilation… has left even longtime conservative stronghold Orange County bereft of a single Republican in the House of Representatives; a growing chorus of GOP loyalists here say there’s only one hope for reviving the flatlining party: Blow it up and start again from scratch.” Easier said than done.

“I believe that the party has to die before it can be rebuilt. And by die-- I mean, completely decimated. And I think Tuesday night was a big step," says veteran California GOP political consultant Mike Madrid. “There is no message. There is no messenger. There is no money. And there is no infrastructure.”

Republicans like Madrid also mourned another low point this week: the defeat of Southern California Assemblyman Dante Acosta, marking the demise of the last GOP Latino legislator-- in a state where Latinos comprise the fastest-growing electorate.

“The California Republican Party isn’t salvageable at this time. The Grand Old Party is dead,” wrote former state GOP Assembly leader Kristin Olsen, who startled fellow Republicans with a brutally frank op-ed this week saying Republicans must acknowledge their “serious problem” in California, particularly the effects of toxicity of President Trump.

GOP strategist John Weaver, who has worked California races and also has represented the presidential campaign of Ohio governor John Kasich, seconded Olsen’s view, tweeting that the effects of the Trump presidency have doomed any chance of resurrection. “In one fell swoop Trump & Republicans who willingly handcuffed themselves to him have turned Orange County into a GOP wasteland," he tweeted this week. “You want to see the future? Look no further than the demographic death spiral in the place once considered a cornerstone of the party.”

Madrid argues that many California Republican leaders remain in complete denial of the fact that their continued support of Trump presidency has sealed the fate of the GOP-- and last week’s midterm elections revealed the true extent of the GOP’s rot in California, where the state party has now shrunken to third party status.

“Now, it’s just open warfare. The barbarians have broken through the gates. The army is in full retreat," said Madrid, who adds there’s no hope left for a party that for years has been on a path toward destruction. “Burn it to the ground. I want to reconstitute."

… [A] leading pro-Trump Republican voice-- former gubernatorial candidate Assemblyman Travis Allen, a far-right conservative who fully supports the president’s wall and immigration policies-- has kicked off his campaign to head the state GOP, announcing that it’s time to “take back California.”

But a growing number of Republicans in the party’s #NeverTrump wing-- which includes prominent strategists like Rob Stutzman and Luis Alvarado-- insist that a new beginning will rely heavily on a full-throated repudiation of Trump’s caustic divisiveness. They believe the rebuilding process could require years, if not generations, to rid the state GOP of the taint of a president who is blamed for ramping up anti-immigrant sentiment in a state that is home to more immigrants than any other in the country.

This isn’t the first time the dilapidated Republican Party in California has faced a dire outlook-- or debated the notion that it must be completely overhauled. In 2007, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was lambasted by Republicans when he delivered an address to their state convention warning that the GOP was “dying at the box office" because they lacked inclusive messaging and policies, particularly to minorities who now dominate the state’s demographics.

And in assuming the leadership of the party in 2013, former state Sen. Jim Brulte predicted it would take at least six years to rebuild the structure and fundraising strength of the Republican Party in California. He warned then that Republicans would need to “either stop the bleeding and/or start turning it around” in 2014-- or the party will be in the pits “for the rest of the decade.”

None of that altered the party’s downward trajectory, however, or caused a wholesale rethinking among some leading candidates and party leaders. Madrid cites the recent gubernatorial contest in which Republican nominee John Cox, who described himself repeatedly as a “Jack Kemp” Republican, pushed for Trump policies that are abhorrent to many Californians.

“It is completely unfathomable...for a Republican nominee to run on building a wall," said Madrid, a nationally recognized expert on Latino voting trends who noted that the party has spent 20 years trying to extricate itself from the damage done by Prop. 187, the anti-illegal immigration ballot measure that eviscerated Latino support in the state. “And everyone acts like it’s normal...Cox was running on that, in California. Are you out of your mind?”

Madrid, who most recently advised the gubernatorial campaign of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, said the party needs to stop looking for silver bullets-- like a gas tax repeal-- and confront the disintegration of some of the state GOP’s once most reliable electorates, especially college-educated voters and women.

“We hemorrhaged college-educated Republican voters on Tuesday night. The ‘diploma divide’ is a very real thing,” he said. “The smaller it gets, the more monolithic is gets. The whiter it gets. The more populist-nationalist it gets. What you’re seeing in the Republican Party is that it’s the party of white identity politics.”

Democratic political strategist Darry Sragow says if the party continues on its current path, its complete disintegration is entirely predictable.

“They’re down to 24 percent registration. And the reason is that they have a huge deficit with Latinos, with African Americans... and with Asian Americans. And they now have a deficit with whites," he said. “You’re talking about a party where 77 percent of Republican likely voters in California are white. And the population that’s white here is 39 percent.”

His advice: “They have to take down the ‘whites only’ sign from the clubhouse door," Sragow says. “And if they’re willing to allow people who aren’t white into the club, they may be able to recover."

“I think that the GOP is capable of turning itself around, because it’s a well-established brand," he said. “The problem is, the people who manage the party are going to have to be willing to do that. And by definition, they are the opposite of that. They have no interest in that.”

Death Spiral

Paul Ryan Gives Up On 2 More Orange County Incumbents— Mimi And Dana Pushed Overboard

Maybe it’s too early to congratulation progressive Democrat Katie Porter and New Dem Harley Rouda, but yesterday’s L.A. Times reported that Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) are no longer seen as viable candidates by Ryan’s shady, Adelson-funded SuperPAC. Both have been cut off and left on the side of the road to die, politically speaking. What the Times reported is that the omission of Rohrabacher and Walters from TV advertising by Ryan’s Congressional Leadership Fund “comes at a crucial inflection point in the midterm election when the two parties begin assessing their likely winners and losers.”

Walters and Rohrabacher join a dozen other Republican incumbents who have been left for dead like Barbara Comstock (VA), Mike Coffman (CO), Mike Bishop (MI), Kevin Yoder (KS), Rod Blum (IA)... This is especially odd and unexpected for Walters and Rohrabacher because just last week Ryan’s PAC spent $337,839 savaging Katie Porter and $324,105 smearing Harley Rouda.

Candidates in California, where more than half a dozen seats are being seriously contested, are at particular risk of being cut off financially because of the state’s exorbitant advertising costs. Money saved in the costly Los Angeles media market can be spread over several contests in other states that may be considered more winnable.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which collects multi-million-dollar checks from the Republican Party’s biggest donors, says it is spending nearly $12 million on cable television ads in four House contests in Southern California.

On Friday, the super PAC launched an additional $5-million ad campaign on the main broadcast stations in Los Angeles, the nation’s second most expensive media market after New York.

But the fund’s opening broadcast ads support only two of the four Republican candidates in the Southland’s hardest-fought races: Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale and Young Kim of Fullerton, relegating its Rohrabacher and Walters ads to cable channels with fewer viewers.

The fund is free to add Walters and Rohrabacher to its broadcast lineup later. But millions of Californians have already received their ballots by mail, so immediate advertising is crucial to the fate of the two lawmakers, who are each facing their most serious challenges ever.

Rohrabacher has served 15 terms in Congress and Walters is bidding to win her third term.

Their Democratic challengers are already spending heavily on broadcast television ads. Walters has aired some broadcast commercials too, but Rohrabacher has not.

Nationwide, Democratic candidates have raised far more money than Republicans. As a result, GOP candidates are counting on outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund to come to the rescue.

But those groups must pay as much as quadruple the rates that television stations are required by law to offer to candidates, so the Democratic dollars are buying far more ad time. And those dollars are expanding the political battlefield, pressuring Republican strategists to make hard decisions on where to commit precious resources and which candidates to let go.

“While most people talk constantly about whether [Democratic enthusiasm] will translate into turnout, it’s definitely translating into dollars,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican strategist in Sacramento. “Dollars aren’t decisive always, but it’s always a big advantage.

“When you’re these national committees and you’ve got problems in the suburbs of Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, you’ve got to start making decisions on where you can most effectively spend,” Stutzman said.

For Knight, facing a formidable fundraiser in Democratic challenger Katie Hill, the new boost from the Congressional Leadership Fund came as a big relief. “We’re happy to have the help,” Knight strategist Matt Rexroad said.

Kim, the other Republican getting broadcast ads from the fund, is battling Democrat Gil Cisneros to succeed Rep. Ed Royce of Fullerton.

A Rohrabacher spokesman did not return a call for comment.

Dave Gilliard, a strategist for Walters, warned against reading too much into the latest machinations.

“There’s a lot of head fakes and games of chicken that occur between various outside spending groups in all these congressional districts,” he said. “Everybody’s trying to head-fake the other side to get them to spend money where they don’t need it.”

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee said the GOP’s congressional campaign arm is now broadcasting a spot supporting Walters and attacking her challenger, Katie Porter.

But he declined to say whether the committee would step up its advertising in either Orange County district if the Congressional Leadership Fund keeps Rohrabacher and Walters limited to cable.

The DCCC is doing something very similar. Remember, triage is bi-partisan-- and always favors conservatives (because of who exactly makes the decisions).They sent out a toxic memo Friday urging institutional donors and the suckers who still contribute to them instead of giving directly to candidates to concentrate on the corrupt conservatives the DCCC is pushing and stop giving money to the progressive candidates whose campaigns the DCCC is trying to destroy. They specifically asked donors to earmark money for New Dem candidates who are way ahead, while cutting back on all candidates associated with Bernie and with the policies he espouses and which are popular with Democratic voters. It’s ironic because the only way the anti-Red wave could possible turn into a Blue Wave would be for the DCCC to embrace ideas like Medicare-For-All, free state colleges, $15 minimum wage, Job Guarantee and other progressive ideas. The DCCC and their bag of Republican-lite candidates would rather run on bullshit talking points and conservative policies like PayGo.