Uncalled House Races-- Just A Dozen To Go

 

The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading President Trump by 5,060,175 votes. That is a larger number than the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012. In the 2012 election, Obama had 4,982,296 more votes than Romney.

This morning's election counties have Trump losing by 5,060,175 votes and that number will keep growing as more votes are counted in New York and California. At the moment, it stands like this:

• President-elect Joe Biden- 76,997,481 (50.8%)-- 290 electoral votes
• Señor Donald J. Trumpanzee- 71,926,263 (47.5%)- 214 electoral votes

There were a dozen actual swing states and 99% of the votes are counted in each one. Biden won 7 and Trump won 5:

This morning the race in Los Angeles for CA-34 was called for Jimmy Gomez, a garden variety progressive politician, who was in a D vs D fight with a super-progressive activist, David Kim. That leaves just an even dozen uncalled House races nationally, 3 more in California, 1 in Illinois, 1 in Iowa and 7 on New York.

The other California races are all for seats that were flipped from red to blue in 2018 and each pits a Republican against an uninspiring, pointless New Dem.

CA-21 includes all of Kings County and parts of Fresno, Kern and Tulare. It is 75% Hispanic and the PVI is D+5. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump there 55.2% to 39.7% and in 2018 TJ Cox ousted David Valadao by 862 votes-- 57,239 (50.4%) to 56,377 (49.6%). Cox has been a shitty Congress, not as shitty as Valadao, but utterly worthless. Valadao challenged him to a rematch and, with 91% of the vote counted, is now leading 72,350 (51.4%) to 68,324 (48.6%). Cox raised $4,798,088 to Valadao's $3,721,619. The DCCC spent $3,704,254 and Pelosi's House Majority PAC spent $3,218,656, about the same thing the Republican committees spent trying to help Valadao.

CA-25 is the Santa Clarita Valley/Antelope Valley/Simi Valley district that Katie Hill flipped in 2018 and then resigned from in a sex scandal. Mike Garcia beat pointless conservative Democrat Christy Smith in the special election on March 3-- 95,667 (54.9%) to 78,721 (45.1%). That was despite massive DCCC spending on Smith's behalf in a district with a Democratic registration advantage where the PVI is even but where Hillary beat Trump by 7 points. In 2018, Hill beat the Republican incumbent, Steve Knight, 133,209 (54.4%) to 111,813 (45.6%). With 99% of the vote counted, Garcia and Smith have been seesawing back and forth, with him currently leading her by 159 votes-- 165,178 (50.0%) to 165,019 (50.1%). Neither is fit to be in Congress.

Worst of the 3 terrible Democratic candidates in the uncalled California races is Gil Cisneros, the lottery winner who bought an Orange County/L.A./San Bernardino open seat in 2018 with $9,252,762 of his lottery winnings. He campaigned as a fake progressive and, predictably, joined the New Dems when he got to Congress and ran up a voting record rated "F" by ProgressivePunch. He's a waste of a seat and his 126,002 (51.6%) to 118,391 (48.4%) 2018 win over Republican Young Kim is-- with 99% of the vote counted-- not looking good. She leads him 167,564 (50.6%) to 163,396 (49.4%). Refusing to spend much of his own money again (just $370,887), he was out-raised by her $5,319,367 to $3,779,013. The DCCC and Pelosi's PAC put in another $2.6 million but it doesn't seem to have helped combat Democratic lethargy for another useless Republican-lite candidate with no accomplishments.

The uncalled race in Illinois is for the R+5 district northwest of Chicago, where Lauren Underwood ousted Randy Hultgren in 2018-- 156,035 (52.5%) to 141,164 (47.5%), winning in all 7 counties. Having made some progressive noises in 2018, she quickly ran up an "F" voting record (ProgressivePunch). Although Obama won the district in 2008, Hillary lost to Trump by 4 points. Right now with 99% of the votes counted, Underwood is narrowly leading right-wing fanatic and perennial self-funder Jim Oberweis, 198,017 (50.4%) to 194,588 (49.6%). Oberweis kicked in $1,208,179 from his personal fortune, but she out-raised him $7,099,198 to $2,515,192. The DCCC considered her safe and didn't spend in the district.

The Iowa race, in the southeast quadrant of the state (IA-02) is open because Democrat Dave Loebsack decided to retire. The Democrats ran Rita Hart and the Republican candidate is Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the D+1 district that re-elected Loebsack by 12 points in 2018, two years after giving Trump a 4 points win. (Obama took in by 13 points in 2012.) This is another race that is see-sawing back and forth. Right now, with 89% of the votes counted, Miller-Meeks leads 196,860 (50.0%) to 196,812 (50.0%)-- just 48 votes! Right now, this is the closest congressional race in the country. Hart out-raised Miller-Meeks $3,631,135 to $1,518,295 and the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC kicked in about $6.5 million, about the same as the GOP committees.

And that brings us to New York, where there are 7 uncalled races. Trump won both Long Island counties again. The Democrats nominated a conservative Blue Dog, Jackie Gordon. to run for Peter King's open seat on the South Shore. Only 78% of the vote has been counted but she is losing to Republican Andrew Garbarino, 157,482 (57.8%) to 112,584 (41.3%), not a gap she looks likely to close enough to win. On the North Shore New Dem Tom Suozzi looks like he's in trouble behind George Santos-- 137,938 (50.5%) to 133,765 (49.0%)-- but will likely win substantially with 28% of ballots (mostly blue mail in votes) uncounted.

The red-leaning Trump strongholds in Staten Island and south Brooklyn are delivering for the GOP and Democrats have been wiped out there. With 85% of the votes counted Blue Dog Max Rose-- who campaigned against his own party and is not that dissimilar to a stinking pile of shit-- is losing to Republican Nicole Malliotakis, 136,383 (57.9%) to 99,224 (42.1%). The PVI is R+3 and Rose has been one of the worst Democrats in the House and clearly doesn't deserve to be reelected, despite having outraised Malliotakis $8,350,467 to $3,052,007. The DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC wasted over $9 million on this race.

Although neither are is called yet, Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado (NY-18 and 19) both lead their Republican opponents, Maloney 135,819 (51.0%) to 127,918 (48.1%)and Delgado 141,993 (50.3%) to 134,602 (47.6%), with a Libertarian shaving 1.2% of the vote off the Republican's total. About 80% is in on each candidate and, like Suozzi both these New Dems are likely going back to the House. Maloney has already announced he wants to run for the DCCC chair. I doubt he could be as bad as Cheri Bustos, but he'd be very close if he manages to win (unlikely).

The most exciting races are further north, NY-22 and NY-24. In NY-22 Anthony Brindisi-- the worst Blue Dog in the House, and one who many of his colleagues are actually hoping loses-- is in a rematch with ex-Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, She's a psychotic Trumpster so this is a race without a lesser evil. With 80% counted she's leading 139,926 (54.4%) to 111,539 (43.4%) in an R+6 district. It's hard to imagine Brindisi winning. Good riddance!

NY-24 (Syracuse and environs) is a D+3 district where progressive Dana Balter is working to oust mainstream Republican John Katko. 78% is counted and he leads her 155,830 (58.5%) to 110,728 (37.8%) in a rematch from 2018. Obama won the district by 16 points in 2012 and Hillary won it by about 3 and a half points in 2016. In 2018 Katko was reelected 136,920 (52.6%) to 123,226 (47.4%). This year he outraised Balter $3,541,163 to $2,711,811, but the DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC kicked in a little over $5 million, about the same as the Republican committees.

It Takes Guts To Run As An Unapologetic Progressive In A District As Red As NY-27

 

There are 8 counties (and parts of counties) that make up NY-27. The DCCC aggressively wrote it off as a target because the PVI is R+11 and because in 2018 and again this cycle, the Democratic candidate is way too independent-minded and way too progressive for them to stomach. That would be Nate McMurray. But last cycle he came closer to winning than any of the DCCC candidates who lost and who they spent millions of dollars on. Had they invested just a fraction of that in Nate's campaign, he would have won. How do I know? Look?

He out-performed Gov. Cuomo, who was also on the ballot. Example, Nate won Ontario County comfortably; Cuomo lost it by a lot. You'd think Cheri Bustos would have jumped right into this one, right? Wrong. She wants a Blue Dog like herself for the seat, not someone who has pictures of himself hanging around with AOC. When asked why he did so well in such a deep red district, he said, "Many are tired of being asked to vote blindly for their party. They are tired of nothing ever improving, nothing ever changing. And they are tired of the politics of hate and corruption... In 2020, we will go to Washington to fight for healthcare for every American (now!), infrastructure (now!), for common sense gun control (and now!), for immigration reform to help our farmers (now!), and for technologies and policies that will confront the reality of climate change."

A few weeks ago he told me that he's "way more progressive than Joe Biden. I support him as the Democratic nominee but there are issues we really differ on. It's about the average Americans who need access to good quality, affordable healthcare, safety and secured rights for minorities and LGBTQ Americans. It's about being able to say and mean that Black Lives Matter and not having a President who just tells white supremacy groups to 'stand by' and refuses to renounce white supremacy outright. The American people and our democracy cannot take another four years of Trump. Will I fight for more progressive policies in Washington than Biden stands for? You bet I will. But we need him in office right now to restore our faith in humanity, and repair all the damage done to the country. A Trump win will tear the country apart."

Obama lost NY-27 both times he ran and Trump won the district in 2016-- 59.7% to 35.2%. Nate did much better than Obama or Hillary. If you click on that thermometer above it will take you to an ActBlue page for progressive candidates running strongly in congressional districts that Trump won. Nate has a good shot of pulling it off this cycle-- and can definitely use some help with his GOTV efforts.

Other than the NY metro counties, Erie has the most COVID cases in New York State. There were 140 new cases reported yesterday, bringing the county total to 13,161-- as well as 717 deaths. There were 22 new cases in Niagara County yesterday-- and a new total of 2,108 along with 102 deaths. Are the rural parts of the district blaming Trump? We'll see on Tuesday.





A couple of days ago, the Buffalo News' top politics reporter, Jerry Zremski, noted that McMurray is a "proud progressive... He’s an advocate of Medicare for All running to represent the state’s most conservative district. He’s a gun control supporter who has challenged, rather than placated, the gun owners of rural Western New York. And just as conservatives there and elsewhere celebrate their new majority on the U.S. Supreme Court, McMurray says Democrats should think about packing the court with progressives."

That’s the Twitter McMurray. But there’s also another McMurray, one who says his top congressional priorities would be helping the troubled farms and communities of New York’s 27th District, one who has traveled its country roads and stumped in its small towns for nearly three years, happily meeting with-- and listening to-- friend and foe.

In such places, McMurray delivers a message aimed at easing the minds of anyone who thinks he’s too liberal to represent the flatlands, hills and valleys between Buffalo and Rochester.

“I am NY-27,” said McMurray, a Democrat and former Grand Island town supervisor who doesn't live in the district, but who says he's developed an abiding passion for it. “My family is farmers and factory workers and tradespeople. And so, in a lot of ways, I am very similar to the people of the region.”

But McMurray's Republican opponent-- Rep. Chris Jacobs of Orchard Park-- sees things very differently.

“I think he's a very liberal guy,” Jacobs said. “I think he's much more in line with the New York City Democrat, more so than even some of the Western New York conservative Democrats.”

Hearing that, McMurray said there's much more to serving in Congress than adopting cookie-cutter campaign stands that match what voters presumably want. There is working hard to really represent the district. There is listening.

McMurray vows to do both.

"I really believe if people get a chance to visit with me and talk to me, you can get beyond the labels," he said.

McMurray doesn't run from the progressive label or fudge his positions so that voters won't notice them.

Instead, he explains.

He said he's for Medicare for all-- a single-payer health care system-- by noting that he's heard plenty from people in the district who ask him for help getting cheaper insulin from Canada, as well as people afraid of losing their health care.

"I think the argument for single-payer is that it will be more efficient," thereby controlling spiraling health care costs, McMurray said. "We are the only advanced country in the world that does not have some form of universal care. And I'm also open to getting there in a gradual way."

Similarly, McMurray explained that while he's been engaged in an ongoing Twitter battle with gun rights supporters, he's been around guns his whole life and knows a lot about them.

Knowing what he knows, McMurray said the sale of new assault weapons should be banned; he says they are dangerous and unnecessary. He said background checks should be expanded to cover gun shows, and Congress should strip gun manufacturers of their liability immunity.

"I think if you ask my policy overall it is let good people have guns," McMurray said. "I don't want guns in the hands of criminals and people that are unfit or unstable."

Similarly, McMurray said he doesn't want the Supreme Court in the hands of Trump appointees who joined the court only because the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, gamed the system. McConnell in 2016 blocked a Democratic nominee (Merrick Garland) and this week rushed the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late liberal icon Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

McMurray sees the new conservative Supreme Court as a threat to the Affordable Care Act, legalized abortion and gay marriage.

"There's no constitutional limit (on the number of justices), and if adding one or two members of the court is going to preserve those rights, yes, I'd do it," he said.

To hear McMurray tell it, though, national issues would not be his top priority in Congress. Instead, he would focus on aiding his district's struggling farmers and shrinking small towns.

He'd like to join two House committees, Agriculture and Foreign Affairs, seeing an important synergy between the two.

"If you look at these trade deals, there are massive protections for former foreign farmers," said McMurray, a lawyer who worked in Asia for years and who more recently had an acrimonious split with Delaware North Cos. "So yes, that's the reason why I want to be on both committees"-- to press for trade agreements that would benefit local farmers.

McMurray said he would also work for immigration reform, hoping it would modernize the visa program for farm laborers so that it would allow them to stay in the U.S. year-round. He said that's just what many dairy farmers want, given that while crops only need to be tended to from spring to fall, cows need to be milked all year.

Expanding rural broadband access would be another of McMurray's top priorities. Noting that he had better internet service when he lived in South Korea than he does on Grand Island, McMurray said the government should wire the entire nation with fiber optic cable.

"With COVID, there's been a surge of people wanting to leave the cities, right?" he asked. "And who wouldn't want to live in a beautiful downtown like Albion or Warsaw if you had the availability to engage in modern commerce there, using the internet?"

McMurray has been stumping across NY-27 for nearly three years now, preaching his can-do gospel about how Washington can help revive the district while fending off naysayers.

One person who's seen McMurray in action who has come away respecting him is his ideological opposite: Duane Whitmer, the Libertarian candidate in the congressional race. He saw McMurray at a 2018 event sponsored by a gun rights group, explaining his support for gun control.

"I was surprised because he went to these people and at least talked to them," Whitmer said.

At the time, Whitmer noted, McMurray was running against then-Rep. Chris Collins, who was under indictment on insider trading charges and who never was known for meeting with groups that disagreed with him.

McMurray lost that race by 1,087 votes, and when Collins pleaded guilty and resigned from Congress 11 months later, McMurray entered the special election contest to replace him. In June, he lost that race to Jacobs by 5.3 points-- in a district that President Trump won by 24 points four years earlier.

To McMurray, both those losses signal that he's exceeding expectations-- and that maybe he'll do even better this November. He said the nation and the district are souring on President Trump amid the Covid-19 epidemic. Moreover, McMurray said he's withstood an onslaught of negative ads from Collins and Jacobs and virtual campaign appearances by Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. only to remain a contender in New York's most Republican district.

"I think that the fact that all those powers have been aligned against us and we still maintained not only a good campaign, but a campaign that is competitive and that might win, is kind of a miracle," he said.

Last Night's Primary Election Results-- Wins And Losses

Ballots are still being counted almost everywhere. Kentucky has already announced that there will be no final vote count until June 30-- which is when the state's two biggest counties, Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington) plan to release their results. Both are considered strongholds for Charles Booker and not a single vote is in the preliminary totals, which represent the 2,005 counted precincts out of a statewide total of 3,685-- 54.41%. This morning Schumer's establishment candidate, Amy McGrath led progressive Charles Booker 27,668 (44.7%) to 22,564 (36.5%), with a second progressive, Mike Broihier a distant third with 3,900 votes (6.3%). As of June 3rd, Massie had raised almost $41 million to Booker's $788,525. She spent $21,492,634 to his $503,623.

The only other Kentucky contest worth noting was the Republican primary in the 4th district, 12 counties that go from the suburbs east of Louisville and south of Cincinnati right into coal mining country as far as the West Virginia border. Trump and the GOP DC Establishment made an attempt to replace independent-minded, libertarian incumbent Thomas Massie with extremist Trumpist robot Todd McMurtry. As of the last FEC deadline, Massie had spent $996,338 to McMurtry's $328,026. An ad hoc Trumpist SuperPAC called Civic PAC spent $132,500 smearing Massie. It didn't work and he has apparently won in a landslide. With 85.42% of precincts counted (463 out of 542) Massie has 16,801 (88%) votes to McMurtry's 2,300 (12%).

Before we get to New York, there were also some relatively sleepy contests in Virginia-- except one. Progressive champion Qasim Rashid beat Lavangelene Williams 21,768 (52.8%) to 19,469 (47.2%) in the first congressional district, an amalgam of 18 almost random counties from the exurbs of DC to the exurbs of Richmond plus James City and Fredericksburg city. Most of the voters live in very blue Prince William County, very red Hanover County and swingy Stafford County. The district PVI is R+8 but Trump just won it with 53.6% in 2016 and incumbent Rob Wittman was reelected last cycle with just 55.2% and could be ousted by Qasim in November.

Now, New York. Let's go through the congressional results district by district, although I want to begin with NY-14, the Bronx and Queens district won in 2018 by AOC. A transpartisan coalition-- funded largely by Wall Street-- backed a Wall Street Republican pretending to be a Democrat, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera and spent immense sums of money smearing AOC with an intensity and virulence no one ever sees in a Democratic primary. The voters weren't buying it and AOC kicked her ass, 27,103 (72.6%) to 7,254 (19.4%). Two vanity candidates drew almost 3,000 votes (close to 8%). Caruso-Cabrera can't switch back to the GOP and run as a Republican in November-- although she is evacuating her Queens apartment and moving back to Trump Tower-- so the GOP is running some guy named John Cummings. You can contribute to AOC's November campaign here.

NY-01 is eastern Long Island, most of Suffolk County and Democrats were vying to see who would take on GOP incumbent Lee Zeldin. There was some fear that the two moderately progressive candidates, Perry Gershon (who Zeldin beat in 2018, 51.5% to 47.4%) and Nancy Goroff, would split progressive votes and allow a more conservative Democrat, Bridget Fleming to win the nomination. Instead, there's an incredibly tight race for number one between Gershon and Goroff, that is unlikely to be decided 'til every last vote is counted and, probably, recounted. As of this morning with all 473 precincts counted:

• Perry Gershon- 5,166 (35.5%)
• Nancy Goroff- 5,022 (34.4%)
• Bridget Fleming- 4,062 (27.9%)
• Gregory-John Fischer 322 (2.2%)

NY-02, the south shore Long Island district that includes parts of both Nassau and Suffolk, should have been a hotspot election... but wasn't. Peter King announced her retirement and Republican Andrew Garbarino will run in his place. The DCCC picked Jackie Gordon-- a typical DCCC pick-- as their candidate and she beat Patricia Maher, who has run unsuccessfully against King before. Sleepy race and Gordon, predictably won with about 73% of the vote (374 precincts out of 524 counted-- about 70%).

The north shore district, which includes some of Suffolk County and a tiny bit of Queens is mostly Nassau and the incumbent is New Dem Tom Suozzi. With just 45.6% of precincts accounted for, he seems to have beat back a weak challenge from the left by Melanie D'Arrigo, 58.9% to 32.7%. It's considered a swing district but Suozzi is an effective and popular congressman and is likely to beat Republican George Santos by something like 60-40% as he did in 2018 against Republican Dan DeBono.

One of my big disappointments of last night was Gregory Meeks' apparent win over Democratic Socialist Shan Chowdhury, although as of this morning, only 39 of 492 precincts have been counted. Predictably-- Meeks being the Queens County machine boss-- NY-05 was the capital of voter suppression and election fraud. I spoke with Shan this morning and his lawyers are investigating how Meeks was able to steal the election and what they can do about it.

The next district with a seriously contested primary was NY-09 a Brooklyn district stretching from Sheepshead Bay to eastern Park Slope, with Prospect Park, Brownsville, Brooklyn College, Flatbush, part of Midwood and Crown Heights in between. Yvette Clarke has one of the most progressive voting records in Congress-- and the second most progressive of any New Yorker in Congress (even higher on the ProgressivePunch list than AOC!) but was primaried from the left again. Grassroots super-progressives Adem Bunkeddeko and Isiah James took about 27% of the vote between them. With all 532 precincts reporting, Clarke was reelected with 62.3%.

In the 10th district (incongruously Manhattan's West Side and Brooklyn's most Hasidic neighborhoods) Jerry Nadler beat back two opponents, an internet progressive and a gay Zionist, former Andrew Yang staffer, to win with 61.8%.

Tragically, odious Blue Dog Max Rose had no primary opponent in the Staten Island, south Brooklyn 11th district. The NRCC chosen candidate, Nicole Malliotakis, won the Republican primary with 70.4%.

In the 12th district there is an incredibly tight race that will probably be finalized next week. Wall Street shill Carolyn Maloney may be defeated by Suraj Patel in this Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens district.

NY-15 in the South Bronx was a real clustefuck on several levels. Longtime progressive incumbent Jose Serrano decided to retire, triggering a complicated primary with a dozen candidates, each appealing to a narrow segment of the population. The common enemy was pretend Democrat Ruben Diaz, Sr., an anti-Choice, homophobic sociopath and Trump supporter and there was tremendous anxiety that the more progressive candidates would split the vote and elect Diaz, who has the most name-recognition in the district. With all 490 precincts counted, this is how the top vote getters fared:

The most closely-watched race in the state was for the Bronx-Westchester district where incumbent Eliot Engel was the designated Joe Crowley of 2020 and faced off against progressive reformer Jamaal Bowman. The most corrupt of the Democratic establishment backed Engel-- Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bob Menendez, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff as well as the DCCC, and a pack of sleazy local politicians. Jamaal was endorsed by virtually every progressive organization in the country as well as by Bernie, AOC, Elizabeth Warren, Ayanna Pressley, Katie Porter, Zephyr Teachout, Marianne Williamson and progressive state legislators Alessandra Biaggi and Jessica Ramos. With 91.5% of the precincts in, Jamaal won 21,851 (60.9%) to 12,769 (35.6%), an ignominious finish to Engel's career as Netanyahu's top shill in the House. This was Jamaal's statement this morning:

From the very beginning, we anchored our campaign in the fight for racial and economic justice. We spoke the truth-- about the police, about systemic racism, about inequality-- and it resonated in every part of the district.

Many doubted that we could overcome the power and money of a 31-year incumbent. But the results show that the people of NY-16 aren’t just ready for change-- they’re demanding it.

We brought people together across race, across class, across religion, across gender, to fight for justice, to fight for equality, and to fight to create a country that works for all of us. We didn’t let them divide us. And we did it all without accepting a dime from corporate PACs or lobbyists.

The world has changed. Congress needs to change too. But if we can take on entrenched power and wealthy interests here in Westchester and the Bronx, then we can do it all across this country.

I’m a Black man who was raised by a single mother in a housing project. That story doesn’t usually end in Congress. But today, that 11-year old boy who was beaten by police is about to be your next Representative.

I cannot wait to get to Washington and cause problems for the people maintaining the status quo.

Just north of NY-16 is the 17th, also in Westchester plus Rockland County. The incumbent Pelosi-ally is retiring and Mondaire Jones, the most progressive candidate running, had already declared he would primary her. Instead he beat a pack of corporate big money Dems and right-wing state Senator David Carlucci. Mondaire is black and gay and progressive, not the profile anyone would have predicted for the 17th.

In Syracuse, NY-24 nominated progressive Dana Balter by a wide margin (64.5% to 35.5%) over conservative Democrat Francis Conole. In the Rochester district (25), conservative New Dem won renomination against progressive challenger Robin Wilt, who picked up 35.2% of the vote.

And the open 27th in western New York, between the suburbs of Buffalo and the suburbs west of Rochester, had a special election to fill the open seat left behind by Trump ally Chris Collins when he was found guilty on multiple economic fraud charges. An heir to a fortune, Republican Chris Jacobs beat Democrat Nate McMurray but the two will face off again in November's general election, when McMurray is thought to have a better chance to win. You can contribute to Nate's general election campaign-- and to the general election campaigns of Mondaire Jones and Jamaal Bowman-- by clicking on the 2020 Blue America congressional thermometer on the right.

One last thing: there was a special election primary runoff in North Carolina yesterday where 24 year old new-comer Madison Cawthorn defeated Lynda Bennett for the GOP nomination to replace Trump's latest chief of staff, Mark Meadows. Both Meadows and Trump had endorsed Bennett. Cawthorn will now face retired Air Force Col. Moe Davis, the Democratic nominee in the heavily Republican district (PVI is R+14, the reddest in the state, and Trump won the district in 2016 with 57.2%). And, yes, he's a total Trumpist.

A Republican soon-to-be congressman (right)

Tuesday Could Be A Big Day For Progressives In New York-- Maybe Bigger Than Anyone Imagines

Through a Politico prism, the grassroots effort to elect Jamaal Bowman to Congress is a twisted power grab by "the left." Holly Otterbein wrote that "Desperate for victory after watching the presidential nomination slip through their fingers, progressives have found a new cause to rally around. Across the country, they’re channeling their grief, volunteer muscle and small-dollar donations into Jamaal Bowman, a left-wing candidate in New York trying to oust decades-long incumbent Congressman Eliot Engel... [T]heir efforts have also exposed party fissures, spurring Democratic establishment powerhouses such as Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn to throw their support behind Engel," while Bowman has been endorsed by Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, AOC, Ayanna Pressley and virtually every credible progressive political group in America.

Otterbein quoted a local ex-candidate, Andom Ghebreghiorgis, who ran, briefly as a progressive, got no traction, dropped out, and endorsed Bowman: "What is that left phrase? We just need a win. People are investing a lot emotionally in this race because they see it as a down-ballot race where the policies of a Bernie, for example, which weren’t able to achieve victory on a national level, can at least be achieved on a congressional level."

Otterbein: "The clash between heavyweights like Clinton and Sanders has made New York’s 16th District race one of the most-watched primaries of the cycle-- and one of the most telling."

I think Blue America was one of the first national groups to endorse Jamaal and we did it nearly a year ago, long before any of the big name political leaders jumped into the race-- Jamaal Bowman-- The Bronx Could Wind Up With The Most Great Members Of Congress Anywhere In America. Although we noted that "Eliot Engel is a New Dem in a district that is far more progressive than he is," the endorsement post is all about Jamaal, with no further mentions of Engel.

Engel isn't the same kind of corrupt villain that Joe Crowley is, nor the same kind of villain that Dan Lipinski is. The best critique of him is that he's absent and no longer a part of his consistency and that his interests are more conjoined with those of Benjamin Netanyahu than with the struggling working families of Westchester and the Bronx. But the reason for Jamaal's traction-- irregardless of the typical Beltway-centric version-- is all about Jamaal. Engel is rated a gentleman's "C" by progressive punch-- not an "F" or even a "D." But there is no reason that NY-16 shouldn't be represented by someone with an "A," which is exactly what Bowman's platform adds up to. New York has 7 members of Congress (out of 21 Democrats) with "A" scores-- AOC, of course, and members like Jerry Nadler, Adriano Espaillat, Yvette Clarke, Nydia Velazquez, José Serrano, even Hakeem Jeffries! New Yorkers should expect no less... especially not in districts, like NY-16 with a PVI of D+24 and where Trump attracted just 22.5% of the vote.

Engel has a huge establishment push working for him now-- and a bipartisan one at that. Republicans know they can't ever win in NY-16 so they're supporting the less progressive contender, Eliot Engel. On Tuesday, Ryan Grim and Akela Lacy reported how Republican money, through a GOP SuperPAC, Americans for Tomorrow’s Future, is flowing into the effort to keep Engel in Congress. The blatantly Republican Americans for Tomorrow’s Future PAC has been funneling money into the Engels campaign through the anti-Bernie/anti-progressive Democratic establishment PAC, Democratic Majority for Israel (an arm of AIPAC). Republicans maxing out to Trump and also putting money through these operations into defeating Bowman. "Engel," wrote Grim and Lacy, "is on the receiving end of nearly $1 million of outside big money and counting, including funding from two other dark-money groups that can’t be traced but who only support anti-progressive candidates.

Despite Engel's big financial advantage-- as of June 3, he raised $1,997,944 to Bowman's $965,857-- the only public polling in the race show's Bowman leading with double digits. Asked this week if they would vote for Bowman or Engel voters picked Bowman over Engel 41-31 with 27% undecided. When the undecided voters were asked who they are leaning towards, Bowman had an even bigger advantage: 40-18%.

East of Scarsdale, north of Rye, north and west of Ardsley and north of Hastings-on-Hudson, you can walk out of Engel's district and into NY-17, where Nita Lowey is retiring and a hot, crowded primary is underway in another sure-thing blue district (D+7), where Trump got 38.4% of the vote in 2016. Seven Democrats are in contention-- including one extreme right Blue Dog-type, state Senator David Carlucci, a bunch of rich people (one of whom, Adam Schleifer, a big PhRMA guy, has self-funded $4 million of his own into the race) and one viable progressive, Mondaire Jones. A new poll of likely primary voters by PPP, released yesterday, shows Mondaire leading significantly:

• Mondaire Jones- 25%
• Adam Schleifer- 14%
• Evelyn Farkas- 14%
• David Carlucci- 11%
• David Buchwald- 8%
• Asha Castleberry-Hernandez- 3%
• Allison Fine-2%

Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones-- not to mention Charles Booker, the Senate candidate in Kentucky-- are the candidates who are getting the most attention in the progressive blogosphere right now and we are feeling increasingly confident about all three. But there's another candidate we're extremely excited about in New York too, Shan Chowdhury, the Democratic Socialist taking on the city's most corrupt politician, Greg Meeks. Meeks has been trying to keep the primary under the radar-- and that could be his downfall. Shan is young, progressive and is being drastically outspent. If he wins, he's going to be Congress' most shake-it-up member. Despite the finance disparity and with just six days left, things have changed for Shan's race. His campaign has worked, for 14 months, to expand the size of the electorate in New York's 5th Congressional district. His campaign has sent over 750,000 texts, made over 100,000 phone calls and is running advertising on almost 10 different platforms in just the last month alone (print and digital). Chowdhury's aggressive strategy to expand the electorate is a problem for Meeks. In NY-05, voter turnout is abysmal. Despite there being over half a million registered voters, Congressional primary turnout in 2016 was only 8,635. That is barely 1% turnout. Meeks has never faced a real primary challenge and as a result his machine has been able to solidify a small base that turns out. That is why expanding the electorate has been an effective strategy for Shan. I just got word that, based upon internal numbers and absentee ballots tracked, Shaniyat is very likely going to upset Rep. Meeks and win next Tuesday.

Despite being widely overlooked, due to a lack of institutional support, his chances of winning are higher than almost any other campaign in New York City. According to the BOE, only 15,000 absentee ballots have been requested in the district. That is lower than any other district in the City. Taking into account Shan's campaign's incredible outreach-- having already seny over a million texts-- and the work his team has done expanding the electorate, this means they are going into election day with better odds of winning then even the incumbent! If their internal numbers reinforce the reality that on June 23rd, they are going to shock the political world-- even louder than Bowman, Jones and Booker will.

Even being so close to election day, contributions are vital to Chowdhury's ability to pull this off. They are going to need a tremendous amount of money in order to properly execute their get out the vote strategy. They plan to distribute 100,000 pieces of literature, flyers and posters between today and election day. They are also going to need the resources to send a broadcast election reminder text to everyone in the district (400,000 people). Let me be clear, contributions today will allow them to secure this victory and change-- perhaps forever-- what is thought possible in electoral politics. The Blue America 2020 congressional thermometer on the right is how you can contribute to Shan Chowdhury, Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones in one fell swoop. And, by the way, those who wonder how last minute money gets to the campaigns on time-- Act Blue wires the contributions daily.

Blue America Endorsement Alert: Mondaire Jones (NY-17) For Congress

New York’s 17th congressional district-- northern and western Westchester County plus, across the Hudson, Rockland County-- represents one of the best chance in the country to send a true progressive to Congress. After 16 terms, Nit Lowey is retiring in this D+7 district where Trump got only 38.4% of the vote. A recent poll released by Data for Progress shows a statistical dead heat among four candidates.

One of those is attorney and activist Mondaire Jones. Mondaire is a progressive champion running on a platform of Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and student loan forgiveness. In fact, he is the only candidate in his race running on these issues. If elected, he would be the first openly gay, black member of Congress in U.S. history.

Mondaire’s chief rivals in the campaign are David Carlucci, Adam Schleifer, and Evelyn Farkas. Carlucci is infamous for being a founding member of the reactionary Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), a group of state senators in New York who were elected as Democrats but caucused with Republicans, denying Democrats a majority in the State Senate. Carlucci was just endorsed by the very right-wing NYC police union, which also endorsed the make-believe Democrat running against AOC. Schleifer is the son of a pharmaceutical billionaire and has spent millions of dollars of his family wealth on the campaign. Evelyn Farkas is a former Defense Department official who has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from the defense lobby and prominent Republicans, including Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff and George W. Bush’s Director of National Intelligence.

Mondaire’s campaign has enormous momentum. Without accepting corporate PAC money, he has raised well over a million dollars and has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren, Julián Castro, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Pramila Jayapal, Barbara Lee, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Working Families Party, United Auto Workers, and many more, including, today, Blue America. Additionally, the poll taken by Data for Progress was conducted just as Mondaire was beginning his advertising campaign, showing that Mondaire has significantly more room to grow than his opponents.

This is a safely blue district where the Republicans have not run a candidate in the past two cycles. If Democrats want to form a true progressive majority, it is essential we elect progressive candidates in safely blue seats like this one. This election could come down to only a few hundred votes and every bit of support helps immensely. Please help Mondaire win on June 23rd by making a contribution at the Blue America thermometer on the right.



A Chance To Make History
-by Mondaire Jones





Growing up poor, black, and gay, I never imagined that someone like me could make it to the halls of Congress. I grew up in Section 8 housing and on food stamps, raised by a young, single mom who still had to work multiple jobs for us to get by.

Thanks to the support of a community and a quality public school education that is unavailable to students in that same school district today, I was able to make it to Stanford University, work in the Obama administration, and graduate from Harvard Law School. But stories like mine are the exception, not the rule. I’m running for Congress to change that.

I’m fighting for bold, structural solutions that will ensure we can build a future that works for everyone, not just a subset of the American population. I know what it’s like to feel left behind and to not see yourself represented. In fact, if elected, I would be the first openly gay, black member of Congress in United States history.

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve seen just how precarious our economy is for millions of people. I don’t think any American should lose their health insurance just because they’ve lost their job. I don’t think anyone should have to go into work sick because they can’t afford to stay home. I don’t think we should let an entire generation be crippled by massive student loan debt, preventing young people from meaningfully participating in our economy.

This is a message that resonates not just with people here in New York’s 17th Congressional District, covering parts of Westchester and Rockland Counties, but all across the country. Our campaign has been endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Julián Castro, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Ayanna Pressley, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, Barbara Lee, Working Families Party, United Auto Workers, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Equality PAC, the LGBT Victory Fund, and so many more.

Our campaign is a grassroots, people-powered movement. Unlike many of our opponents, we’re not taking money from corporations and we’re not self-funding with millions of dollars. We rely on contributions from everyday people, like delivery drivers, nurses, and teachers who chip in $10 or $25 when they can. We’ve been outraising most of our competition, but we’ve got to pick up the pace.

Right now, our election is less than 3 weeks away. We’re fighting for real change for working people, but we’re up against the pharmaceutical industry and the defense lobby and we need your help. Join us.

A Warning: The Most Right-Wing Democrat In NYC-- A Trump Supporter, No Less-- May Slip Into Congress

Hasn't the Bronx suffered enough?

If you're new around here, you may have missed our discussions over the years about Rubén Díaz., an ultra-conservative career politician in the South Bronx. As I mentioned last time, the south Bronx congressional district from which Jose Serrano is retiring, doesn't have many white Conservatives. In fact, only 2.5% of the district's population is white. And when Republicans run there, it's just a publicity stunt. NY-15 is the bluest district in America. Obama won it with 95% the first time he ran and with 97% the second time. In 2016, Trump only took 4.9% of the vote, his worst performance anywhere in the country. This cycle, though, conservatives might get lucky. One of their own is running for the open congressional seat... and running as a Democrat. City Councilman Rubén Díaz Sr., New York's most right-wing Democrat, has a chance to slip into the seat. Ironically, NY-15 is right next to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's district and Díaz enjoys telling everyone he's the opposite of her. He sure is. He's a 76-year-old, cowboy hat-wearing Pentecostal minister known for his constituent services and controversial statements on social issues and makes his path to victory clear-- a split among half a dozen progressive and mainstream candidates could leave the crackpot with a primary win.

Díaz was the only Democrat in the state Senate to vote against a bill legalizing same-sex marriage in 2011. And he has been sharply criticized in recent months for saying the City Council is "controlled by the homosexual community"; he was subsequently stripped of his chairmanship of the For-Hire Vehicle committee and urged to resign by the City Council Speaker Corey Johnson.

There are 15 Democrats competing in the primary-- 11 of whom have raised at least enough money to file an FEC report ($5,000)-- and 7 of the 11 having raised at least 10 times that amount. There are also two full-on progressives in the race-- Tomas Ramos (who has been endorsed by Blue America) and Samelys Lopez.

Yesterday, writing for Newsweek, Adrian Carrasquillo warned that Díaz is poised to win. That's because all the other Democrats are taking a small piece of the non-Díaz vote, leaving Díaz with a good shot to win.

"He would instantly become Donald Trump's favorite New York congressman," strategist Eric Koch of anti-Diaz super PAC Bronx United told Newsweek, adding that Diaz Sr. would be an unreliable Democratic vote in the House caucus.

To complicate matters, he has a son, Ruben Diaz Jr., who is his namesake and a Bronx borough president many call the most popular politician in the borough. Diaz Jr. is regularly asked to comment on his father's actions, as he did disapprovingly when Diaz Sr. invited Senator Ted Cruz to visit the Bronx, but the consensus is that his son is a political plus for the reverend.

..."There's a cruel irony that a Trump Republican could represent the most Democratic district in America," said Ritchie Torres, an opponent who has raised six times more money than Diaz Sr. and has $800,000 more cash on hand, according to the latest public filing.

While outside groups bristle at Diaz Sr.'s place in the modern Democratic Party, they don't get a vote in the community where he has devoted his time and resources for decades.

Diaz Sr., who is Puerto Rican, has a background that still matters in a historically Puerto Rican part of New York, which includes Hispanic evangelicals and seniors who are his base. New York political experts said the pastor, who can be seen wearing a baby blue cowboy hat on the New York City council website, is a master of constituent services.

"He has always had a great constituent service mechanism," said Jennifer Blatus, a political strategist who interned with Diaz Jr. "He's really good at connecting with the community, he knows who his base is, he knows how to reach them, his son is wildly popular, they have the same name and half the people that vote for him might think they're voting for Rubencito."

Diaz, who said he was a victim of anti-black discrimination while in the Army, was addicted to drugs and pleaded guilty to heroin and marijuana possession in 1965 before finding salvation in Jesus Christ, ministering to people who also needed to turn their lives around, and opening senior centers in the Bronx in the 1970s and 1980s.

An analysis of his spending by The City found that Diaz Sr. had spent $31,000 on gifts before the crisis struck New York, including buying Thanksgiving turkeys, Christmas toys, and gift cards from iconic New York standby, Western Beef.

"That is what I have always done," Diaz Sr. said when the legality of such gifts was questioned. "Giving back to the people and trying to help the community. This is nothing new to me."

Blatus said Diaz Sr. has a lot of different tactics to help meet the needs of seniors, like having volunteers give older constituents a ride to the voting booth.

"He's fully bilingual, he's from Puerto Rico, he knows what hardship is, he can relate to these people," she said.

"The Diaz name has value not just because his son is the borough president, but because it has been a fixture in that community both politically and spiritually," said Hank Shienkopf, a veteran of New York politics since 1969, who grew up in the district, and helped elect Diaz Jr. as Bronx borough president.

Shienkopf said it's important to understand that local residents don't judge Diaz Sr.'s controversial statements because they feel they are the ones being discriminated against by a system that has never helped the Bronx. "If there is anything that is true about politics in New York City, it's that change is the only constant," he said. "But this is the one place where there hasn't been a change in their economic status."

That's not enough for his opponents, who believe the election falling during a crisis has helped Diaz Sr.

"You have a homophobe, misogynist, who's anti-choice and could win here but it's been hard to get people to focus on this seat," Melissa Mark-Viverito, a former New York City council speaker also running in the 15th district race to replace retiring Representative Jose Serrano told Newsweek.

His opponents are keeping score of his transgressions.

Diaz, who once compared abortion to the Holocaust, drew widespread condemnation in 1994 when the Gay Games were coming to New York City and he wrote in a column that the 20,000 athletes "are likely to be already infected with AIDS or can return home with the virus."

Diaz Sr. also was strongly criticized for saying the city council was "controlled by the homosexual community" last year and for refusing in 2005 to endorse Michael Bloomberg or Democrat Fernando Ferrer in the mayoral race because their support of abortion rights and same-sex marriage meant "they have nothing to offer me according to the Bible."

Neither Diaz responded to Newsweek's request for comment.

Bronx United released a digital ad highlighting his previous comments that if you dare to sympathize with Trump or wear a MAGA hat you are labeled a racist.

A national coalition launched by Victory Fund last week, which backs LGBTQ candidates and supports Torres, included NARAL Pro-Choice America, Latino Victory Fund, Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and Human Rights Campaign to raise the alarm that Diaz Sr. wants to represent a district they argue has politically moved away from him.

But outside efforts over the next month may not matter. Experts said campaigning has been fundamentally changed because of the pandemic and there won't be traditional street or park events in the month before the primary. That means Diaz Sr. could be headed to Congress after all.

"The district has been devastated by the virus, but also devastated by poverty for the last 25 years, so the question is where were these people when the Diaz's were here?" Shienkopf said. "Who is standing up to scream about it? Diaz keeps proving he's the one that can yell the loudest, so that gives him some standing."

Robin Wilt For Congress (NY-25)

Not every member of Congress can be AOC or even earn an A for their voting records. In fact, ProgressivePunch only has 46 "A" ratings right now. 7 of them are for New York Democrats-- but Rochester freshman Joseph Morelle isn't one of them. Unfortunately, he's not among the members with "B"... nor "C" nor even "D." Morelle, in a solidly safe blue district (PVI is D+8)-- Obama won both times with 59% and even Hillary beat Trump in the district 55.5% to 39.1%-- still managed to work up a voting record that scored an "F," one of only 7 New York Democrats with that disgraceful of a record.

The New York primary will see Morelle facing off against a real progressive-- Brighton Town Councilwoman Robin Wilt, who Blue America is endorsing today. Take a look at her issues pages. She's a straight down the line working-family-supporting Berniecrat: housing as a human right, Medicare-for-All, criminal justice reform, equitable education for all, Climate Justice and so on. I asked Robin to introduce herself. She wrote this and made the video below. If you like what she has to say, please kick in what you can by clicking on the ActBlue 2020 congressional thermometer below.

An America As Good As Its Promise
-by Robin Wilt

My father immigrated to the United States from Guyana, South America, in 1968--the very year that the Fair Housing Act passed Congress. He came to the United States because he believed in the promise of the American Dream. It was a time of incredible racial strife in our country and our community. What my father refused to accept--and this was actually fortunate for him because his pioneering spirit remained undeterred-- was that, for far too many, the American Dream is a dream deferred. America is failing to live up to its basic promise of justice for all.

My father committed to holding America accountable for the values that it promulgated around the world. He came to this country with $40 in his pocket because he believed, as do I now, what Congresswoman Barbara Jordan, of Texas, understood, “What the people want is very simple-- they want an America as good as its promise.”

In search of better educational opportunity, our family moved to the comfortable community of Pittsford in 1976. Naively, I did not appreciate growing up what a pioneering move that was. I don’t think it was any coincidence that my father purchased land and had his house built from the ground up. Quite frankly, as a Black man, it was easier to build from scratch than to trust any of the housing developments at the time to offer him equitable terms.

What I also did not appreciate was that the pioneering spirit and sense of equity and fairness that my father instilled in me would be my guiding principle as I run for Congress today. Although the 25th Congressional District entirely encompasses the City of Rochester-- which is 42% African American-- the district has never been represented by a person of color. A recent study by the financial company 24/7 Wall Street found that the 25th Congressional District is the second worst Congressional District in the country when it comes to the quality of life for African Americans. The rampant and unsustainable wealth, educational and healthcare disparities that we witness in the 25th congressional district are largely the outcome of policies that were championed by the existing political establishment-- of which, as a 30 year incumbent of the state Legislature and a former Monroe County Democratic Committee Chair, my opponent has been a significant part. I recognize that the policies perpetuating wealth and opportunity disparities is a key electoral issue facing our district, and I’m running because I truly believe that we deserve better and can do better!

Ultimately, that is why I am running for Congress. I’m running for the people of the 25th congressional district who deserve to have people-centered policies that work for all of us. I have spent the last decade and a half working on the grassroots level to promote social, economic and environmental justice. I share the narrative of my father and our family’s immigration story because I want to highlight the structures that are in play, to this day, that reinforce disparate outcomes for people in our community based on race, class, gender, ethnicity and sexual orientation. Ultimately, we want an America where an immigrant family, like mine, that got by eating government cheese, can go on to attend the nation’s best colleges and universities, and achieve their full potential.

What I have learned from talking to people who are most directly impacted by our systems, is that these unjust systems that threaten our democracy are working exactly as intended. What that means is that our systems that are disproportionately impacting certain communities need to be fundamentally reimagined, so that they are grounded in equity and justice. I’m committed to fighting for equity and access for all. I believe that there can be no true economic equity and access to opportunity in our community until we put worker’s rights, access to education, health and overall welfare of the people over corporate welfare. Corporations are not people and my opponent, a true establishment, status quo candidate, is funded by corporate PACS and organizations that are publicly against just, human policies such as Medicare for All, and the Green New Deal-- both of which my opponent has not publicly supported.

As an activist, I publicly support human rights by fighting for policies that grant access to healthcare in the form of Expanded and Improved Medicare for All;  climate justice and the creation of a green economy that centers those most impacted by polluters and crumbling infrastructure; equity in education and an end to the school-to-prison pipeline; and criminal justice reform, decarceration and an end to the prison industrial complex. These are all issues that matter to the electorate, who have become increasingly disengaged, and dis-enfranchised. I’m committed to ensuring that members of my community truly feel that their interests are represented through action and relentless commitment to the enactment of equitable policies.  I’m committed to engaging and registering new voters and ensuring that issues that matter to them are represented in the policies I support.

In 2006, I helped co-found a Progressive Democrats of America local chapter because I believe that engagement is the key to achieving outcomes that benefit everyone in our community. A healthcare Town Hall that we staged drew an attendance of 500 people and featured two sitting members of Congress. My stance on important issues is usually strongly influenced by the voices of my constituents and their individual stories. In my run for office, I’ve had the honor of connecting with those closest to the pain of being underrepresented by their elected officials, and I’ve witnessed the unfortunate results.

Our current political leadership, through its malign neglect of the communities that are most vulnerable, relegates us to the unjust status quo. There have already been comparisons between this race and that of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her historic win over the establishment candidate in Queens. As in the case of AOC, we are taking on not only an individual incumbent, but one that built the Democratic Party establishment in Monroe County. I am accustomed to challenging unjust systems because it is what I have done my entire life. I will concede that the race between myself and my opponent is similar to AOC when she bested Crowley, but what AOC did was steal a march on the establishment. In this race, they know we’re coming. And we’re glad they know we’re coming. We, with the power of the people, fully intend to storm the establishment gates.

Monroe County deserves representation that is committed to serving the people in our communities--not merely the party establishment, or corporate donors. Monroe County deserves representation that reflects the diversity of the 25th Congressional District. The House of Representatives is the People’s House. And we won’t rest until the Power resides with the People!

Elise Stefanik Gets Famous... For All The Wrong Reasons

Not a good image for the North Country this cycle

North Country conservative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is well-known among DC insiders-- but virtually unknown outside-the-Beltway. Or she was until last week, when she consistently beclowned herself on national TV during the impeachment hearings. Stefanik represents a huge, sparsely-populated district in the northeast corner of New York, bordered by Quebec, Ontario and Vermont. Plattsburgh and Watertown, each with less than 30,000 inhabitants, are the two biggest towns. There are a dozen counties in this swing district that went for Obama twice and then slammed Clinton with a massive 14 point loss against Trump in 2016. How would Bernie have done there? Well here's how he did in the primary:

• Saratoga- Bernie- 55.8%, Hillary- 44.2%
• St Lawrence- Bernie- 58.9%, Hillary- 41.1%
• Jefferson- Bernie- 50.9%, Hillary- 49.1%
• Clinton- Bernie- 73.5%, Hillary- 26.5%
• Warren- Bernie- 61.7%, Hillary- 38.3%
• Washington- Bernie- 64.1%, Hillary- 35.9%
• Fulton- Bernie- 61.1%, Hillary- 38.9%
• Essex- Bernie- 73.2%, Hillary- 26.8%
• Franklin- Bernie- 70.9%, Hillary- 29.1%
• Lewis- Bernie- 59.1%, Hillary- 40.9%
• Herkimer- Bernie- 56.0%, Hillary- 44.0%
• Hamilton- Bernie- 63.1%, Hillary- 36.9%

Last year, in an anti-red wave year, Stefanik beat Democrat Tedra Cobb 131,981 (56.1%) to 99,791 (42.4%) and won all but Clinton and Essex counties, both basically tied. As in many Bernie districts, the Democratic establishment pushed a Clinton-type candidate instead of a Bernie-progressive-- and lost. Cobb is running again and she just got her biggest break of the cycle. If her moderate, yes-but-better-than-a-Republican campaign was getting nowhere, Stefanik's clunky and uber-partisan defense of Trump benefitted no one but Cobb. Cobb's campaign raised over half a million dollars last week, her biggest fundraising week ever, and her social media following vaulted to over 200,000 people, now able to reach more people than Stefanik can on Twitter. Meanwhile, Stefanik's carefully-crafted, if misleading, image as a "moderate" lays smashed, irreparably, on the floor of the hearing room and in the minds of millions of Americans who saw her in action, kissing Trump's ass.

As much as Republican Party hacks-- from Nunes to Trump's Goebbels-like press secretary-- tried to push the idea that the hearings are boring and that no one was watching, people were very much watching and the hearings were all over TV, radio, newspapers and social media. CNN reported that the hearings were ratings bonanzas for Fox News and MSNBC. According to Nielsen, Fox averaged 2.9 million viewers at any given time between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. and MSNBC averaged 2.7 million viewers at the same time. How big a deal is that? "On a typical day, Fox News has about 1.5 million viewers during the daytime hours, and MSNBC has closer to 1 million... The ratings contradict claims from some of the president's allies, including one of his sons, Eric Trump, who said on Fox News that 'no one was watching it. No one cares.' Clearly lots of people cared enough to tune in. They also wanted to see the spin later in the day-- Fox's Sean Hannity had one of his highest-rated shows of the year, with 4.4 million total viewers."

It's impossible to estimate how many people watched or heard the hearings across all platforms, since television, radio and streaming video are all measured in different ways.

Some people consumed the hearing in one sitting, but the more common experience is much more scattered-- hearing snippets on the air and seeing clips on social media and headlines on phones.

The ABC, CBS (CBS) and NBC broadcast networks pre-empted regular programming for Wednesday's hearings as well. ABC and CBS averaged 2 million viewers each, and NBC had nearly 1.67 million.

But a much greater total number of people saw some portion of the hearings over the course of six hours. The granular Nielsen data shows fluctuations throughout the proceedings.

CNN, for example, averaged 1.85 million viewers during the entire hearing, peaking at 11 a.m. when more than 2.1 million were tuned in.

The cumulative average audience for the big six channels listed above was 13 million-- about on par with the day former special counsel Robert Mueller testified in July.

Wednesday's hearing was also carried live on PBS; by some local Fox stations; by C-SPAN; and by other television networks.

And the hearing was streamed almost everywhere, on a wide variety of social networks and news websites.

CNN Digital reported strong but not off-the-charts interest in live streams of the testimony.

There's no Nielsen-like way to measure cumulative viewership on the web.

But the overnight ratings indicate that the impeachment hearing reached both political junkies and a wider group of daytime TV viewers.

The vast majority of Americans, however, didn't watch the entire event live-- they soaked it up through social media and heard about it later.

Nielsen estimated 13,787,000 viewers live (while most people are at work or school), however among elderly people, many of whom are retired and at home, there were 10,644,000 viewers live. News clips dominated the nightly news shows and all other forms of media. Elise Stefanik is famous, not as the moderate she has spent years trying to pass herself off as, but as a radical imbecile Trumpist trying to disrupt the hearings to protect a criminal plot to solicit foreign interference in the 2020 election. Stefanik congratulated AOC when she was first elected, saying she was glad to give up the spot as youngest woman in Congress to her and predicting that AOC would inspire other young women. AOC has, while Stefanik has continued to sink into a morass of hyper-partisan Trumpism, adding both another chin and political enemies among moderates and independents.

Washington Post columnist Aaron Blake called Stefanik's shameful game-playing a gender-centric stunt. "During the hearing's first break, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) declared that Democrats were trying to get Yovanovitch to 'cry for the cameras.' But arguably the most significant moment on that front was one that was manufactured by Republicans-- and rather transparently so. After returning from the first break, ranking Republican Nunes tried to yield time for questioning to Stefanik. But Schiff said Nunes couldn't do that-- that he could only yield to his counsel or ask questions himself. The Republican professed to be perplexed. 'You're gagging the young lady from New York?' Nunes said incredulously. The optics would seem to be pretty bad for Schiff; he was silencing the committee's only female Republican, for apparently no reason except spite. Except that's hardly the case. The rules as voted on by the broader House last month were clear: The chairman, Schiff, and the ranking member, Nunes, each got 45-minute periods to either ask questions or yield to a staff member. (The resolution says: 'Only the chair and ranking minority member, or a Permanent Select Committee employee if yielded to by the chair or ranking minority member, may question witnesses during such periods of questioning.') Afterward, each member would get five minutes, during which they can yield to other members. Stefanik still tried to use the moment for political hay, tweeting, 'Once again, Adam B. Schiff flat out REFUSES to let duly elected Members of Congress ask questions to the witness, simply because we are Republicans.' That is just not true-- Schiff was acting firmly within the rules-- and Nunes and Stefanik have to know that. It's pretty apparent this was a stunt."