How Have All Those Freshman Members We Elected In November Been Voting?

The worst new senator (AZ) and worst new House member (NJ)

First the good news: Although there haven't really been enough controversial votes yet to definitively analyze the voting records of the congressional freshman class, there are mostly pretty good signs. With every day that passes, records are beginning to become somewhat clearer, at least at the extremes. According to ProgressivePunch, 38 freshman House members are tied for the #1 spot-- with 100% perfect scores. There are obvious perfect voters like AOC (D-NY), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Joe Neguse (D-CO), the Levin Boys (Mike from California and Andy from Michigan), Debra Haaland (D-NM) and Chuy Garcia (D-IL) but even some of the reactionary candidates have been voting exactly the way the Democrats who entrusted them with high office would have wanted them to vote-- crap candidates who will likely soon start disappointing, like Jason Crow (New Dem-CO) and Susie Lee (New Dem-NV), for example. For now... 100%.

But some Democrats have already started slipping over to the Dark Side and finding their comfort zones on the other side of the aisle. Further down the list of freshmen, there are 10 tied for 144th most progressive: Cindy Axne (D-IA), Abby Finkenauer (D-IA), Chrissy Houlahan (New Dem-PA), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA), Katie Porter (D-CA), Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA), Mikie Sherrill (Blue Dog-NJ), Elissa Slotkin (New Dem-MI) and Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA). Republicans are already starting to look at some of these freshman as obvious targets for 2020 since they are already beginning to show signs of disappointing the Democratic base. For example, in Orange County-- CA-48, the coastal district Rouda won from Dana Rohrabacher last year, 157,837 (53.8%) to 136,899 (46.4%)-- Republican businessman James Bradley, who was the top finishing GOP candidate in last year's U.S. Senate race, declared against Rouda, whose congressional office is said to be in utter turmoil and disarray, last week.

Right-of-center freshmen like Blue Dog Mikey Sherrill, are going to need all the help they can get if they keep voting against progressive bills and refuse to back popular progressive initiatives like Medicare-For-All and the Green New Deal. History has taught us that Democrats like her will wind up without support from a crucial sector of the electorate: committed progressive activists. In NJ-11, former governor Chris Christie has already started pushing his wife to run against Sherrill. It's a very swingy red-leaning district (R+3) and the only thing Sherrill will be able to count on for reelection is suburban revulsion at Trump at the top of the ticket. The Christies have lived in the district for 25 years and are very popular there.

And those ten aren't even the worst problem-children-- not by a loingshot. Tied as the 202nd most progressive (which is not at all progressive) are 7 freshmen who keep finding themselves voting with the GOP an awful lot:

• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)
• Sharice Davids (New Dem-KS)
• Antonio Delgado (D-NY)
• Jared Golden (D-ME)
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)
• Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY)
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)

Now we're in real stinky garbage territory. Those 7 above will all have tough reelection battles, if not primaries. Xochitl Torres Small already has two declared GOP opponents... as her support from progressives activists evaporates. And that brings us to the 3 worst freshmen Democrats-- tied for the 231st "most progressive" and already with voting records better than only 2 sewer lane Democrats, Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX) and Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN). Tied for the worst freshmen of all and just begging to be one termers:

• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)
• Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ)

The DCCC announced their 2020 frontline program yesterday-- 44 Democratic incumbents, mostly shitty freshmen, who are in trouble for reelection. The only non-freshmen on the list are a couple of truly crap Blue Dogs-- Tom O'Halleran (AZ) and Josh Gottheimer (NJ)-- and a progressive, Matt Cartwright (PA) in a Republican-leaning seat. O'Halleran's biggest political problem is a primary from progressive Democrat, Eva Putzova. As for the freshman members, most of them are Republican-lite types who can count on Trump-hatred to get them over the hump next year, although most of them are likely to be defeated in 2022 after Pelosi leads the Democratic Party into disappointing everyone on everything important... But at least she passed her own top priority: Pay-Go. Which of the freshmen on the list deserve some support? So far I'd say Mike Levin (CA)... but I'm holding out some hope that Katie Porter (CA), Jahana Hayes (CT), Jared Golden (ME), Andy Kim (NJ) and Kim Schrier (WA) are on their way to proving themselves worthwhile members of Congress. The rest have already proven themselves the contrary. Most of the good freshmen are not on the DCCC Frontline list of course.

Over in the Senate, there are are 4 freshmen tied as the 47th most progressive-- two Democrats and two Republicans. The Republicans are Josh Hawley (MO) and Martha McSally (AZ). The Democrats are the only freshmen in the class, both of whom had very right-wing voting records in the House-- Jacky Rosen (NV) and the worst of the worst, the Democrat who applauded the loudest and most often and with the greatest enthusiasm for Trump Tuesday night, Kyrsten Sinema. All four are rated "F," of course. The four pictured below have nothing to do with these four from the Senate-- and do I mean nothing!

Hey, but while we're all here, this is a list of all the House Democratic freshmen and the committees they were assigned to. You might find it useful moving forward... or not, but I'll be using it s a reference for the next couple of years.

Colin Allred (New Dem, TX)

• Foreign Affairs
• Transportation and Infrastructure
• Veterans' Affairs

Cindy Axne (New Dem-IA)

• Agriculture
• Financial Services

Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)

• Agriculture
• Veterans' Affairs

Ed Case (Blue Dog-HI)

• Appropriations
• Natural Resources

Sean Casten (New Dem-IL)

• Foreign Affairs
• Science

Gil Cisneros (D-CA)

• Veterans' Affairs
• Armed Services

T.J. Cox (D-CA)

• Agriculture
• Natural Resources

Angie Craig (New Dem-MN)

• Agriculture
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Jason Crow (New Dem-CO)

• Armed Services
• Small Business

Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)

• Natural Resources
• Veterans' Affairs

Sharice Davids (New Dem-KS)

• Small Business
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Madeleine Dean (New Dem-PA)

• Financial Services
• Judiciary

Antonio Delgado (D-NY)

• Agriculture
• Small Business
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Veronica Escobar (New Dem-TX)

• Armed Services
• Judiciary

Abby Finkenauer (D-IA)

• Small Business
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Lizzie Fletcher (New Dem-TX)

• Science
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Chuy Garcia (D-IL)

• Financial Services
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Sylvia Garcia (D-TX)

• Financial Services
• Judiciary

Jared Golden (D-ME)

• Armed Services
• Small Business

Debra Haaland (D-NM)

• Armed Services
• Natural Resources

Josh Harder (New Dem-CA)

• Agriculture
• Education and Labor

Jahana Hayes (D-CT)

• Agriculture
• Education and Labor

Katie Hill (New Dem-CT)

• Armed Services
• Oversight
• Science

Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)

• Armed Services
• Science

Stephen Horsford (New Dem-NV)

• Budget
• Ways and Means
• Natural Resources

Chrissy Houlahan (New Dem-PA)

• Armed Services
• Small Business
• Foreign Affairs

Andy Kim (D-NJ)

• Armed Services
• Small Business

Ann Kirkpatrick (New Dem-AZ)

• Agriculture
• Appropriations

Susie Lee (New Dem-NV)

• Education and Labor
• Veterans' Affairs

Andy Levin (D-MI)

• Education and Labor
• Foreign Affairs
• Veterans' Affairs

Mike Levin (D-CA)

• Natural Resources

Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA)

• Armed Services
• Veterans' Affairs

Tom Malinowski (New Dem-NJ)

• Veterans' Affairs
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)

• Financial Services
• Science

Lucy McBath (New Dem-GA)

• Education and Labor
• Judiciary

Joseph Morelle (D-NY)

• Budget
• Education and Labor
• Rules

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (New Dem-FL)

• Judiciary
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Joe Neguse (D-CO)

• Judiciary
• Natural Resources

AOC (D-NY)

• Financial Services
• Oversight

Ilhan Omar (D-MN)

• Budget
• Education and Labor
• Foreign Affairs

Chris Pappas (New Dem-NH)

• Veterans' Affairs
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Dean Phillips (New Dem-MN)

• Financial Services
• Foreign Affairs

Katie Porter (D-CA)

• Financial Services

Ayanna Pressley (D-MA)

• Financial Services
• Oversight

The worst Democratic members of Congress-- posing proudly

Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY)

• Veterans' Affairs
• Homeland Security

Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA)

• Oversight
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Mary Gay Scanlon (D-PA)

• Judiciary
• Rules

Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)

• Agriculture
• Education and Labor

Donna Shalala (D-FL)

• Education and Labor
• Rules

Mikie Sherrill (Blue Dog-NJ)

• Armed Services
• Space

Elissa Slotkin (New Dem-MI)

• Armed Services
• Homeland Security

Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA)

• Agriculture
• Foreign Affairs

Greg Stanton (New Dem-AZ)

• Judiciary
• Transportation and Infrastructure

Haley Stevens (New Dem-MI)

• Education and Labor
• Science

Rashida Tlaib (D-MI)

• Financial Services
• Oversight

Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)

• Armed Services
• Homeland Security

Lori Trahan (D-MA)

• Armed Services
• Education and Labor

David Trone (D-MD)

• Foreign Affairs
• Education and Labor

Lauren Underwood (D-IL)

• Veterans' Affairs
• Education and Labor
• Homeland Security

Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ)

• Agriculture
• Natural Resources

Jennifer Wexton (New Dem-VA)

• Financial Services
• Science

Susan Wild (New Dem-PA)

• Foreign Affairs
• Education and Labor

Trump Is Proving To Be Absolutely Toxic For Republicans In Swing Districts Currently Held By Republicans

More Democrats need to run on this and NOT on Pelosi's insane idea of restoring PAY-GO

Two very different polls with interesting information came out this morning, one from Quinnipiac and one from Monmouth. Both carry very bad news for the GOP. I bet you haven't seen this before: American voters believe 55% to 28% that the allegations "anonymous" made-- and that were made by anonymous senior White House staffers in Fear that Trump's top aides work behind his back "to keep him from making what the aides believe are bad decisions"-- are true. Even 27% of Republicans believe it! Normal Americans seem much more certain than Republicans are. Among Democrats, 82% believe the assertions and among Independent voters 52% believe (and 33% don't believe). Asked if Trump is honest or not, 32% of Americans say he is and 60% understand that he's a congenital liar, incapable of opening his filthy mouth without lying. Among Republicans, only 17% understand he's a liar, but 92% of Democrats and 63% of Independents do. Nor is dishonesty the only trait polled that contributes to Trump's overall 38/54% approval/disapproval rating.

• Good leadership skills- No- 57%
• Cares about average Americans- No- 55%
• Level-headed- No- 65%
• Strong- Yes- 57%
• Intelligent- Yes- 51%
• Shares your values- No- 60%
• Mentally stable- Yes- 48% (42% say he's out of his mind)

The all-important fit to serve as president question- 41% say he is and 55% understand he isn't. By a 90-7% margin Republicans think he is fit to serve. 96% of Democrats say he isn't. Among independent votes, 42% say he's fit to serve and 53% say he isn't. That's a pretty bad hand Republicans are going into the midterms with. And that's what the Monmouth Poll dealt with-- but in just 8 key Republican-held battleground districts polled between June and August.

Unfortunately, Monmouth doesn't seem to be releasing the specific information by congressional district. I called them and tried, unsuccessfully, to get it out of them. These are the districts they polled: CA-48 (Rohrabacher), PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick), PA-17 (Keith Rothfus), NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur), NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen), OH-12 (Troy Balderson), VA-10 (Barbara Comstock), WV-03 (Evan Jenkins). Let me give you the information they reported (the average more or less of the 8 districts combined) and then I'll get into what I could find by scrounging around their site about the individual districts.

Among likely voters in the 8 districts, Democrats lead 47-43%. The two italicized incumbents are not running for reelection. The pollster reminds us that in all 8 districts Republican candidates won-- routinely-- by double digit margins in recent cycles. Findings:

• Where voters live has an impact on the margin of support. GOP House candidates are underperforming in Republican precincts relative to the Democrats’ performance in their base precincts. The Republican lead is between 4 and 13 percentage points in precincts that Romney/Trump carried, with the range depending on the size of the GOP presidential ticket’s margin. The Democratic lead is much stronger at 15 to 28 points in districts carried by Obama/Clinton.  In competitive districts – those where the average margin was less than 5 points for either party’s presidential ticket-- Democratic House candidates have a slim lead of 4 points. Also, the Democratic House candidate does better overall in precincts where Trump did worse than Romney even after controlling for the precinct’s partisan lean.
• Race, education and gender define key voting groups. Republicans’ core voting bloc is comprised of white men without a college degree, while Democrats can count on strong support from white female college graduates as a well as women of color regardless of educational attainment. White women without a degree and white male college graduates are more competitive groups, as are, to a lesser degree, men of color. White men without a degree who are registered Democrats and women of color who are registered Republicans are the most likely to cross party lines in their 2018 House vote.
• Partisan differences in election interest. High interest is more prevalent among voters supporting the Democratic candidates (62%) than it is among those supporting the Republicans (54%) in these eight races. The highest levels of interest come from college educated white men (75%) and women (72%) who are supporting a Democratic House candidate.
• Strongly held opinions of Trump lean negative. While voter opinion of Trump is evenly divided at 49% approve and 48% disapprove, there is a negative gap when looking only at strongly held opinions-- 33% strongly approve and 40% strongly disapprove in these eight districts.

Nw let's look at the district by district information I was able to cobble together within a reasonable time-frame relative to the above information.

• NJ-03- Trump's approval is 46% (33% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (41% strongly). 48% of NJ-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 43% say they support him.

• PA-17- Trump's approval is 44% (28% strongly) and his disapproval is 51% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-17 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 46% say they support him.

• CA-48- Trump's approval is 46% (32% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (39% strongly). 48% of CA-48 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• NJ-11- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 43% of NJ-11 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 49% say they support him.

• VA-10- Trump's approval is 42% (24% strongly) and his disapproval is 53% (47% strongly). 39% of VA-10 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• PA-01- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-01 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 44% say they support him.

• WV-03- Trump's approval is 66% (49% strongly) and his disapproval is 30% (23% strongly). 29% of WV-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 65% say they support him.

Wondering what this translates to nationally? It's impossible to be precise but it's a lot more than the 23 seats the Democrats need for a House Majority. In fact, it's more like something between two or three times more. There are always special circumstances in every race. In WV-03, as you can see, Trump has very high approvals. The PVI there is red, red, red-- R+23-- and Trump slaughtered Hillary, 72.5% to 22.5%. But you know who else slaughtered Hillary there? Bernie. And the colorful Democratic candidate in the district, state Senator Richard Ojeda, supported Bernie in the primary and Trump in the general-- just like so many WV-03 voters did. He's also created a unique brand for himself. That's likely to be the reddest district in the country won by a Democrat, but it's proof that if the DCCC keeps out of primaries, anything can happen.

And today's last poll-- this one from CNN-- was more bad news for Trumpanzee and his GOPzee. Over the last month, Señor T’s approval rating has dropped six points 36% from 42%. His disapproval is now 58%. And for Republicans running in the midterms, the worst part of this is that Trump's troubles are coming from... independent voters. "Among independents, the drop has been sharper, from 47% approval last month to 31% now. That's 4 points below his previous 2018 low of 35% approval among political independents in CNN polling, and 1 point below his previous all-time low among independents in CNN polling, reached in November 2017."sn't around messing up races and thwarting the wave, virtually anything can happen.

New Polls In Florida, Ohio, New Jersey And Arizona Show Trump Is Toxic Enough To Flip Congress

Voters do NOT want Trump enablers and rubber stamps

The Democrats have some really weak-- even repulsive-- candidates. But it may not matter. Kyrsten Sinema, for example, is literally the worst Democrat in the House. Chair of the Blue Dogs, her ProgressivePunch crucial vote score is a dismal 35.44, the lowest "F" of any Democrat. But Schumer recognized a kindred spirit and gave her the nomination. And she's probably going to win anyway. Jacky Rosen-- another crap candidate of Schumer's (and Reid's)-- isn't as bad, because as soon as she was told she could be a senator, she started voting like a Democrat. But she's still plenty bad. She also has an "F" but her score is 53.51%, just between Blue Dogs Filemon Vega (TX) and Conor Lamb (PA). Polling consistently shows even the worst, useless Democrats, like Sinema and Rosen, are going to win anyway. Independent voters are freaking out over Trump and they want a Congress that will act as a check on his excesses and psychosis. And they've seen that Republicans are too scared of him-- or worse-- to do anything but behave as enablers and rubberstamps, even in red-leaning state.

Yesterday, Carrie Dann, writing for NBC News reported on recent polls in Arizona, Florida and Ohio (all states Trump won in 2016). Only a third of voters think Trump should be reelected and voters are going to take it out on Republicans in November. Florida's PVI is R+2. Ohio's is R+3 and Arizona's is a very red R+5. Republicans in Congress deserve what's headed their way.

In Arizona, 52 percent of registered voters say they’ll use their vote to send a message that the country needs more Democrats to serve as a check on Trump, while 36 percent said the nation needs more Republicans to pass his agenda.

While Trump won the state of Arizona by four points in 2016, he’s underwater now when it comes to his approval rating in the state. His job approval rating among registered voters in Arizona is 41 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove. And just 35 percent say definitively that Trump deserves to be re-elected, while 57 percent disagree.

In Florida, another key swing state that’s home to one of the marquee Senate races of the cycle, 49 percent of voters favor a Congress that serves as a check on Trump, while 40 percent want lawmakers to assist Trump in passing legislation. The president’s approval rating among voters in the Sunshine State is the highest of the three states surveyed by NBC and Marist-- at 45 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove. But a majority-- 54 percent-- still say that a new person should be given a chance in the White House, while 37 percent say they believe Trump deserves re-election.

And in Ohio, 51 percent want more Democrats in Congress in order to counter Trump’s efforts, while 35 percent say they’d like to see more Republicans on Capitol Hill to help the president advance his agenda. Forty-two percent of voters approve of Trump’s performance, while 49 percent disagree. And just 34 percent say Trump deserves to win another term.

It's worth noting that these surveys were in the field June 17-22, during a time when the national conversation was focused on the administration’s policy of separating migrant children from their parents.

Back to Sinema in Arizona. The Arizona poll shows she will beat any of the 3 Republican candidates.

• Sinema- 57%, Joe Arpaio- 32%
• Sinema- 49%, Martha McSally- 38%
• Sinema- 49%, Kelli Ward- 38%

In Florida, Bill Nelson is leading Rick Scott 49-45%. On top of that, the gubernatorial candidate Trump keeps endorsing, crazy teabagger Ron DeSantis is way behind establishment candidate Adam Putnam-- 38% to 21%.

And in Ohio, the poll is also sour for the GOP. Sherrod Brown (D) is kicking Jim Renacci's ass, 51% to 38% and among registered voters, 51% want more Dems in Congress as a check on Trump while just 35% want more Republicans who will help Trump pass his agenda.

Will this work the same way in House races? Of course it will. Yesterday Monmouth released a new poll of New Jersey's open 11th district, where Rod Frelinghuysen has had enough of Trump and is retiring. The PVI is R+3 and Trump won the district by 1 point. (McCain and Romney did better.) Again, the Democrats have a worthless candidate who stands for nothing and offers the voters nothing at all: Mikie Sherrill... but she's leading Republican Jay Webber, 40% to 38% among likely voters.

The partisan enthusiasm gap is making this traditionally Republican district competitive for the first time in decades. A majority of all voters (55%) have a lot of interest in this election, but self-identified Democrats (67%) are significantly more likely than Republicans (48%) to feel that way.

“Right now this race is more about underlying partisan enthusiasm than it is about either of the two major party candidates because, to be frank, most voters don’t know much about either one of them. There is still a lot of room for movement in this race with the high number of undecided voters and low level of knowledge about the candidates,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“The recently passed tax reform bill may be the Trump presidency’s biggest legislative accomplishment to date, but it doesn’t play well in a district where the SALT cap is likely to hit hard,” said Murray. He added, “You wonder whether Sherrill would be doing even better if Frelinghuysen had chosen to run again, since it would have been harder for a party leader to separate himself from the Republican plan despite his own vote against it.”

Voters in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District are divided on their assessment of Donald Trump-- with 47% approving of the president’s job performance and 49% disapproving. They are slightly more likely to oppose (49%) rather than support (43%) what Trump is doing on most issues. Opponents (73%) are much more likely than supporters (56%) to say that it is very important for them to cast a vote for Congress that registers their feelings about the president.

NJ-11 voters are divided on whether they would rather see Republicans (40%) or Democrats (38%) in control of Congress, with another 18% saying that party control does not matter to them. When voters evaluate both parties, the GOP gets ever so slightly better positive ratings-- 35% favorable to 46% unfavorable for the Republican Party compared with 30% favorable to 44% unfavorable for the Democratic Party.

“Many voters in this district maintain a lifelong affiliation with the Republican Party. It’s just a different type of Republican Party than the one they see in control in Washington today. This political disconnect with the party is one factor that increases the district’s potential to flip,” said Murray.

In other words, Trump is toxic in all three swing states (and in NJ-11) that he won in 2016, augaring down ballot wins for the Democrats-- if the Kremlin doesn't interfere again. Watch this video that Chip Proser did for Ted Lieu. Then think about how serious a condition we're in now.

Profile In Cowardice: Rodney Frelinghuysen

Frelinghuysen doesn't do town halls... he goes to pancake breakfasts

When the deranged body slammer won the Montana special election, Wall Street-owned former bankster Steve Stivers (R-OH), the head of the NRCC-- the GOP's version of the DCCC-- said, "Nancy Pelosi and liberals in Washington were rejected again" but that "the best way for Greg to thank them would be to apologize for his actions, and I am glad he has done so." Jessica Wehrman, writing for the biggest newspaper in Stivers' district, the Columbus Dispatch, asserted yesterday that "Stivers knew that his job protecting the GOP’s House majority would be tough. But there’s no way he could’ve known he was signing up for this. Saddled with a polarizing president, Stivers, 52, also faces the perils of history: Midterm elections during a president’s first term historically have been lousy for the House majority party. The party has struggled to unite on issues such as health care. And Democrats, galvanized by Trump, have shown up to protest at town hall meetings of congressmen, often boisterously."

One of the seats Stivers will have to protect is the central New Jersey seat held by Rodney Frelinghuysen who was first elected in 1994 and has never had a serious electoral challenge. The scion of a long political pedigree going back to the American Revolution-- although several of ancestors fought on the British side against the Americans-- and of two sources of great wealth-- Proctor and Gamble and Ballantine beer. Frelinghuysen, an inbred goof-ball who was a spoiled, poor student and has had everything handed to him on a silver platter, normally wins reelection with between 60 and 70% of the votes. Congressman Frelinghuysen's net worth-- though he never worked a day in his life-- is over $50 million. His worst performance was last year (58%), when Trump's toxicity in the affluent New Jersey suburbs dragged him down. Romney had beaten Obama in the R+6 district 53-47% but Trump underperformed, taking the district narrowly, 48.8% to 47.9%. Next year Frelinghuysen is likely to face well-liked, well-financed and very much admired Assemblyman John McKeon. Over the weekend, a NY Times article by Nancy Solomon highlighted why Stivers is concerned about Frelinghuysen and his ability to hold onto his seat.

Frelinghuysen got a ton of really bad press in his district a couple of weeks ago for complaining about a political activist to her boss. The woman, a senior vice president at the bank, was forced to resign, primarily because the damage Frelinghuysen, as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, could do to the bank. Frelinghuysen will have to explain his behavior to the House Ethics Committee and-- more importantly0-- to angry voters in Morris, Essex and Passaic counties. Solomon write that "Singling out a lone constituent-- and being caught doing so-- suggests, perhaps, a feeling of disquiet. 'It seemed a particularly meanspirited and vengeful thing for Congressman Frelinghuysen to do-- a man who never had a reputation of being that kind of a bare-knuckles fighter,' Rutgers political science Professor Ross] Baker said. 'I think he senses that the ground is shifting from under him.' Solomon's point though is that Trump’s election and the Republican hold on Congress are forcing a confused and weak Frelinghuysen to choose between the party’s crackpot far right leadership and more moderate suburban constituents back home. And then the kicker:

Frelinghuysen’s response to Mr. Trump’s budget proposal has been lukewarm, and he opposed the first House Republican health plan. But, reportedly threatened with losing his chairmanship, he went along with conservatives and supported the House health plan’s second version.

Back home, Mr. Trump’s election has given rise to NJ 11th for Change, a group that has held weekly protests at Mr. Frelinghuysen’s office, jammed his phone lines and called on him to hold a town-hall meeting, which he has refused to do.

He did recently hold a telephone call-in event, which allowed him to cut off callers when they disagreed. His frustration showed. “For people who have jammed our lines and made it difficult for us to meet our constituent needs, it would be nice for you to back off,” Mr. Frelinghuysen said at one point.

Mr. Frelinghuysen’s 11th Congressional District, which includes Morris County and parts of Essex, Passaic and Sussex Counties, is what New Jerseyans call Republican horse country. It is one of the richest and most highly educated districts in the country, and the estates in Mr. Frelinghuysen’s hometown, Harding Township, make it one of the 25 richest ZIP codes in America, according to Forbes magazine.

Perfect district for Rodney Frelinghuysen XXIV (or whatever number he is) but antipathy for Trump and the crap Ryan is doing in Congress are an especially terrible match for the well-educated 11th district. Worse yet, as his party has come more and more under the thrall of neo-Confederate radicals in the House, ole Rodney himself has moved further and further right politically. No more Mr. Mainstream Conservative. He's got a nut-case voting record now. "Frelinghuysen," wrote Solomon, "once supported abortion rights but in recent years has voted to limit access to abortion. He also opposes gun control, gay marriage and regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions." This is not where most voters in NJ-11 stand. Ex-Governor Tom Kean is insisting that Frelinghuysen, "despite his voting record, is still a moderate." How is someone a "moderate" if their voting record is extreme right? One House staffer from New Jersey put it bluntly: "Frelinghuysen has no integrity at all... He sold out whatever he once believed in so he could get-- and then keep-- his committee chair... It's kind of sad. He ought to retire. In fact, there are a lot of rumors that he's doing a Hamlet routine about it a couple times a week."

New Jersey: Defeating A Frelinghuysen

When I was very young, my family used to rent a summer bungalow in Ft. Freedom, New Jersey, northwest of Morristown in what is now Rodney Frelinghuysen's congressional district (NJ-11). He inherited this political domain from the Frelinghuysen dynasty and his great wealth from his mother's family, Beatice Proctor an heir to the Proctor and Gamble fortune. His father represented the area from 1953 to 1975 and his grandfather, Freddy Frelinghuysen was a New Jersey senator (and a vice presidential nominee under Henry Clay in 1844. Frelinghuysen's great-great-great-great-grandfather, another Freddy Frelinghuysen, was one of the framers of the U.S. Constitution and later a U.S. Senator from New Jersey. The current inbred goof-ball, Rodney Procter Frelinghuysen the 4th or 5th or 6th, was a spoiled, poor student but everything has always been handed to him on a silver platter. And if he didn't have enough from the GOP, the DCCC has never challenged him and has been giving him free passes to reelection since 1994. He normally wins reelection with well over 60% of the vote, sometimes with over 70%, against Democrats with no support and no money. Last year's 194,299 (58.0%) to 130,162 (38.9%) was his narrowest-ever win. Maybe his support for Trump dragged him down. Romney had beaten Obama in the R+6 district 53-47% but Señor Trumpanzee underperformed, taking the district narrowly, 48.8% to 47.9%.

That caught the DCCC's attention and they're now saying they're interested in supporting a candidate. Two weak candidates have put themselves forward, Jack Gebbia and Mikie Sherrill but locals-- as well as the DCCC-- are eager to recruit progressive West Orange Assemblyman John McKeon. Aside from an excellent voting record and record of leadership in the Assembly, in New Jersey's corrupt political cesspool, McKeon is a rare incumbent with a good reputation. As far back as March, Politico was speculating that Frelinghuysen’s streak of effortless elections may come to an end in 2018, just as he’s at the height of his power as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. And that was before he flip-flopped on TrumpCare, first claiming he couldn't vote for it and then-- even as the House Freedom Caucus made it a worse bill-- decided to vote for it anyway.

Anti-Trump activists have incessantly called on Frelinghuysen to hold a town hall somewhere in North Jersey’s 11th District, which includes all or parts of Morris, Essex Passaic and Sussex counties. He’s refused, so they’ve protested at his office asking "Where's Rodney?" and held mock town halls. The recently-started Facebook group “NJ 11th for Change,” through which protests against Frelinghuysen are publicized, has more than 7,000 members.

And now, NJ 11th for Change has a super PAC, founded last month by Google executive Jonathan Bellack and local bank executive Saily Avelenda. Organizers claim it raised $10,000 in its first day and another $10,000 in its first week simply through seeking contributions on Facebook.

“We’re not your traditional super PAC,” said Debra Caplan, who serves on the super PAC’s board and on the steering committee of the larger NJ 11th for Change organization. “We’re a citizens super PAC. We’re a group of ordinary people who decided to start a super PAC because we want to be able to create material and distribute information about what’s happening in the congressional district and things that are coming down the line.

...Critics point to Frelinghuysen's decreasing vote ratings by groups like Planned Parenthood and his increasing ratings with groups like the National Rifle Association.

Redistricting in 2011 didn’t do Frelinghuysen any favors by taking away some conservative territory and adding some Democratic towns, including part of the liberal bastion of Montclair, in Essex County. In 2010, the district had 150,000 Republicans to 100,000 Democrats. Now, it has 165,000 Republicans and 152,000 Democrats.

...Matt Hale, a professor of political science at Seton Hall University, said Frelinghuysen could be vulnerable.

“The anger that people are feeling toward Donald Trump seems to be spilling over all over New Jersey. I do think that could crystalize into an effective opposition,” he said.

Caplan said several people have expressed interest in challenging the 70-year-old Frelinghuysen. Only one Democrat, however, has publicly entertained the notion: Assemblyman John McKeon, who comes from a Democratic part of the district in suburban Essex County.

Even with a super PAC doing some of the lifting, whomever runs against Frelinghuysen will likely be financially outgunned. As chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Frelinghuysen, who in the last election raised $2 million-- half of it from corporate PACs-- despite token opposition, will not have trouble raising money.

Frelinghuysen rakes in immense sums (bribes) from war contactors and Big PhRMA and in the last cycle spent $1,669,366 although his 3 opponents, Democrat Joe Wenzel, Libertarian Jeff Hetrick and independent Tom Depasquale spent a combined total of... zero. None had even raised the $5,000 that would trigger an FEC report. McKeon, on the other hand, is a strong fund-raiser and would certainly be the first opponent to give Frelinghuysen a real run.