Can A Blue Dog Party Switcher's Pledge Of Undying Loyalty To Trump Help Him Win Re-Election... In Atlantic City, Where Trump Destroyed The Economy?

 

New Jersey's second district is the only real swing district in the state. Obama won it it a tad over 53% both times he ran and then Trump beat Hillary there 50.6% to 46.0%. The district takes up the entire southern part of the state, including Atlantic City, although most of it suburban and rural. There are 8 counties and parts of counties, but most of the people live in just 4: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Gloucester counties.

Frank LoBiondo, a mainstream Republican, was elected to the congressional seat in 1994 and finally retired in 2018 granting the DCCC their long-in-the-tooth and disastrous wish-- a run by the most conservative member of the New Jersey state legislature, NRA darling Jefferson Van Drew. He won but not by a huge margin-- 52.9% to 45.2%-- while losing Salem, Ocean, Camden and Burlington counties. And he spent $1,877,531 while his Republican opponent only managed to spend $299,475. Outside group spent another million-plus on bolstering Van Drew, while his GOP opponent was without allies in that department.

Now, of course, Van Drew is the Republican candidate and the Democrats snagged a moderate Democrat, Amy Kennedy. So far she's outspent him by around a million dollars-- $4,085,926 to $3,028,402 with Pelosi's superPAC kicking in another $5,275,471 and the DCCC $1,165,084 more. In all over $7 million in outside money has been spent on Kennedy's behalf while "just" $5.3 million has been spent by the GOP to defend Van Drew.





CNN reported this week that Van Drew's very public pledge of his "undying support" for Trump has not done him any good with independent voters, who ultimately decide who wins and who loses elections in NJ-02. Rebecca Buck wrote that last December, Van Drew "shocked his colleagues in the Democratic Party when he announced he would become a Republican," blaming the impeachment for his decision. His shocked colleagues would only have to know a little something about Blue Dogs-- dozens of whom have stabbed the party in the back and joined the GOP-- and Van Drew's very Republican voting record to have not been shocked. Just as they shouldn't be if others just like him-- Anthony Brindisi (NY) and Kendra Horn (OK) being prime examples-- when they hop the fence in a couple of years. Buck continued that "Van Drew's detractors point to a more craven political calculation: that he might not have been able to survive his Democratic primary."

The decision culminated in an Oval Office photo-op, where Van Drew pledged his "undying support" to the President. Camera shutters clicked as the two men vigorously shook hands. Eleven months later, those images are at the center of one of the hottest congressional races in the country, with Van Drew seeking reelection for the first time-- and, also for the first time, running as a Republican.

His GOP debut happens to coincide with a daunting year for his new party. But he says his transition is "going fine."

"What's really good about it is, I sort of feel liberated, in that I don't have somebody telling me what you can and can't vote for," Van Drew said, "and that's what really started all of it."

Van Drew's Democratic challenger, Amy Kennedy, is a former schoolteacher born and raised in South Jersey; she is also the wife of former Rep. Patrick Kennedy, a son of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

The race is only nominally between Kennedy and Van Drew, however. As in down-ballot contests across the country this year, Trump looms large here-- perhaps even more so because of the public embrace between Van Drew and the President.

"What's happening at the top of the ticket is really defining the down-ballot races," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, which recently surveyed the race for New Jersey's Second Congressional District. "It's much, much harder this time around than it has been in the past to establish yourself as an independent voice."

A year ago, a close association with Trump might not have sounded like such a bad thing in South Jersey. The President won this district in 2016 by 5 points; in January, when Trump traveled there for a victory-lap rally with Van Drew, thousands of supporters lined up in the frigid cold. Van Drew, reminiscing on that night, recalled an atmosphere of such exuberance that a match "just would have self-lit."

But that was before Trump stumbled responding to a global pandemic, before millions of Americans lost their jobs, and before 2020 and the election took a sharp turn in another direction.

Now, Trump's endorsement might not be enough, if it's a net positive at all-- and as the President lags in the polls with Election Day nearing, Van Drew, a former mayor and state lawmaker, is trying to remind voters of his own brand, cultivated over two decades in public service, of an independent-minded politician unconcerned with party labels.

"I don't always agree with what the Republican Party is doing or even the President is doing. And the President knew that when I got involved," Van Drew said. "I vote independently. I'm the same Jeff Van Drew I always was."

If some at-risk Republican candidates are hedging their support for Trump, however, Van Drew insists he isn't one of them.

Indeed, Van Drew's campaign website still features a large banner photo of his Oval Office handshake, swallowing up most of the screen. Van Drew was a featured speaker during the Republican National Convention over the summer. And his campaign office windows plainly bear the signs of Van Drew 2.0: not only Van Drew's logo, printed on yard signs this year in a new shade of bright GOP red, but also Trump's. The Van Drew campaign shares the office with Trump's New Jersey operation.

"I don't run away from people," Van Drew said. "...I don't think, whether you're a Republican or a Democrat, whether you always agree with the President or not, that you just betray him and walk away. I don't think that's the right thing to do."

Some Democratic voters who supported Van Drew two years ago believe that's exactly what he did to them, by switching parties just one year after they sent him to Washington.

"I felt betrayed actually, that he would do something like that," said David Burr, a Democratic voter who cast his ballot this year for Kennedy. "It just seemed like he wasn't thinking about me, he was thinking about remaining in office."

And it isn't just voters: party leaders, too, felt broadsided by Van Drew's decision. Just days before Van Drew's announcement, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer headlined a lunch reception for the congressman at a townhouse on Capitol Hill. There, according to Hoyer, he praised Van Drew for his party loyalty, despite hailing from a moderate district. Donors wrote checks for as much as $5,000 to Van Drew's reelection campaign; Hoyer, for his part, had already maxed out.

Many of the actual founders of the Blue Dog coalition found it expedient to quit the Democrats and become Republicans, like Nathan Deal (GA), Billy Tauzin (LA), Jimmy Hayes (LA), Michael Parker (MS), Gene Taylor (MS), Ralph Hall (TX), Pete Geren (TX), who came up with the term "Blue Dog," and Greg Laughlin (TX). In leaving the Democratic Party, Van Drew was staying true to what Blue Dogs generally do.

However, many of these Blue Dog party switchers lose subsequent elections (or even GOP primaries). Buck reported that "Van Drew claims to be 'the only person in all of American history who ever went from the majority party to the minority party,' and insists that others who have done it have been rewarded with chairmanships and greater political clout. But that's not true, even in recent political history." She cited Blue Dog scumbag Parker Griffith (AL) who became a Republican in 2009. Alabama Republicans weren't interested and defeated him in a primary.

For Van Drew, at least, a contested GOP primary wasn't an issue after Republicans rolled out the red carpet for him. Along with Trump's endorsement of Van Drew, the President's reelection committee immediately invested $250,000 in advertisements thanking the congressman for switching parties and supporting the President.

But if the GOP welcomed Van Drew with open arms, his district's voters might make another calculation.

"Van Drew has been successful his entire career setting himself up as not the typical politician, not somebody who's beholden to partisan interests," said Murray, of Monmouth. "Yet many voters view his party switch exactly in that vein, that it was an act of political self-preservation."

In a sense, it was. As Van Drew prepared to vote against impeaching the President last year, his campaign team shared with him an internal poll suggesting the stance would doom him in a Democratic primary. Switching to the GOP was hardly a guaranteed return ticket to Washington-- but at least it wouldn't be a certain political death sentence.

...The bigger issue for Van Drew, unquestionably, will be Trump-- and their alliance symbolized by the moment when Van Drew pledged his "undying support, always" to the President.

It was that moment, Kennedy says, that motivated her to run in the first place.

"I had no intention of running for office," Kennedy said. "But it was hearing those words, 'I pledge my undying support to you Mr. President, always,' that was when I felt like this is someone who is absolutely not there to look out for our best interests. And that compelled me to want to run."

Now that moment has become a symbol of the campaign-- and a headache for Van Drew, who like voters in his district has seen his sound bite played and replayed "over and over and over again," by his count, in attack ads this year.

During CNN's interview this week, we asked Van Drew if he regretted those words that have followed him around these months and might now cost him reelection.

"I think the words didn't explain as well what I exactly felt," Van Drew conceded. "It's not undying support that, whatever you say I'm going to do, or undying support, I agree with whatever you say. It was undying support for the presidency, for the idea of the greatness of America, for a friendship, but not necessarily that I'm going to agree with everything."

But it's unclear if will voters understand what he meant versus what he said.

"I think voters understand that when you're in the Oval Office and you're having a very exciting day and you're making a little piece of history," Van Drew said, "that sometimes we all say things."

A few minutes later, after our conversation had moved on, Van Drew stopped mid-sentence to rephrase something-- and then, recognizing the humor of it, he cut himself off again. Under his mask, he might have allowed a smile.

"See how your words can come out wrong?" he said, stabbing the air playfully, laying his Jersey accent on thick. "Well, I got a chance to fix it this time."

Kennedy isn't a Blue Dog, but has been endorsed by the New Dems, basically just as bad and more firmly tied to Wall Street. Progressives have no candidate to vote for Tuesday, though many are just going to hold their noses and vote for Kennedy to express their antipathy for Van Drew.

Amy Kennedy Is Besting New Jersey Turncoat Jeff Van Drew. Is That Any Reason To Celebrate?

What's worse? This or supporting another dynast?

 

The New Dems, even more so that the withered and impotent Blue Dogs, are the heart of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. They are Wall Street and corporate-America sell outs and have more in common with Eisenhower-era Republicans than they do with progressive Democrats. They vote badly but, worse yet, they prevent progressive legislation from ever getting to the floor, even in a Democratically-controlled House.

DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos quietly resigned from the Blue Dogs to become a New Dem when she decided to work towards become Speaker. She has worked diligently and successfully to knock out progressives where ever possible to make sure Democratic Party nominees would be New Dems. The New Dems themselves have endorsed 25 candidates so far this cycle-- and have 6 others on their website as "Candidates to watch." They may be better than Republicans-- but only because the GOP has moved so far right that they can now be classified as a fascist party. The New Dems today are what the Republicans were previously-- not racist, misogynistic or homophobic, but virulently pro-corporate and anti-working class.

The new Dem leadership, chaired by Derek Kilmer (WA), is basically putrid: Ann Kuster (NH), Scott Peters (CA), Terri Sewell (AL), Suzane DelBene (WA), corrupt coke freak Pete Aguilar (CA), Kathleen Rice (NY), Ami Bera (CA), Chrissy Houlahan (PA) and Mikie Sherrill (NJ). These are cowardly careerists, not leaders. There can be no progress as long as they dominate the Democratic House caucus.

Here's dozen of their worst recruits this cycle: the Democrats who will guarantee-- along with Biden's White House and Schumer's Senate-- that there is a massive red wave in 2022.

The worst of the New Dem recruits have also been endorsed by the Blue Dogs: Eugene DePasquale (PA), Margaret Good (FL), Jackie Gordon (NY), Christina Hale (IN) and Sri Kulkarni (TX), a future Pete Aguilar pal. Both organizations are very careful with their endorsements. Believe me-- no progressives, none, never. So... when people were rejoicing at the Monmouth poll released yesterday showing former Blue Dog/New Dem/DCCC recruit, NRA hero Jefferson Van Drew-- now a devoted Trumpist and officially a Republican-- being defeated by Amy Kennedy, I wondered how many Democratic voters know what to expect from her.

Oh, she'll be a bit of an improvement over Van Drew for sure. But I would suggest you use your psychic energy to help elect these men and women, not another New Dem.

Obama won NJ's 2nd district with around 53.5% both times he ran. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary 50.6% to 46.0%. The seat opened up in 2018 and the DCCC and Blue Dogs and New Dems recruited the absolute worst member of the New Jersey state legislature, Jefferson Van Drew. He ran against a clown the GOP didn't support, Seth Grossman. Grossman spent $299,475 to Van Drew's $1,877,531. The DCCC and it's allies spent another $1.1 million bolstering Van Drew and attacking Grossman.

This cycle, Kennedy has raised $1,529,882, most of which she spent in the primary, to Van Drew's $2,548,688. But... the DCCC and it's allies have already spent nearly $2 million on Kennedy, while a Trump PAC has spent around $260,000 defending Van Drew.

Monmouth reported that "Among all registered voters, Kennedy is supported by 49% and Van Drew is supported by 44%. Another 1% say they will support a third party candidate and 5% are undecided. Among likely voters in a high turnout scenario, Kennedy holds a 50% to 44% edge. She maintains that lead in a lower turnout model with 51% supporting her to 44% for Van Drew. It should be noted that these leads are all within the survey’s margin of error. Kennedy holds a 94% to 1% advantage among Democratic voters while Van Drew has an 89% to 8% lead among his now-fellow Republicans. Independents prefer Kennedy by a 50% to 40% margin... In the presidential election, Joe Biden holds a small lead over Donald Trump in the district-- 48% to 45% among all registered voters, 50% to 45% among likely voters in a high turnout election, and 49% to 45% in a low turnout election."

Meanwhile... this powerful, incredibly well-articulated and unprecedented video by a former First Lady may upset a White House occupant trying to keep his blood pressure from spiking and killing him. All the worst of luck, Pig Man!

South Jersey Democrats Have A Conundrum Coming Up Quickly

Will, Brigid and Amy

There's a red hot race for the Democratic nomination for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district, the one the South Jersey (Norcross) Machine and the DCCC screwed up when their repulsive Blue Dog pet-- Jeff Van Drew-- switched parties and (openly) became a Trump butt wipe. The same machine-- along with the DCCC-- has another candidate though... like anyone wants to trust them again-- Brigid Harrison. Everyone I know in south Jersey tells me that the progressive in the race, Will Cunningham, "can't win" and that the only chance to stop Harrison is to back Amy Kennedy. The problem with that strategy is that we'd wind up with Amy Kennedy in Congress. (That's always what's wrong with going along with lesser of two evils strategies.)

A south Jersey player who I know well but who doesn't want to be identified because he fears retribution from the Mob the Machine, sent an open letter to Amy Kennedy with a suggestion about how she could win the postponed primary, now scheduled for July 7th:


Open Letter To Amy Kennedy
-by Anonymous

Dear Amy,

You can win the Democratic nomination for the NJ-02 congressional seat, but first you have to defeat Brigid Harrison, the only other viable candidate in the race. And with the Norcross machine backing her, that won’t be easy.

You need to issue a statement embracing a popular position that will clearly distinguish you from Harrison. And there’s no better issue for that purpose than Medicare for All.

Dissatisfaction with the dysfunctional U.S. healthcare system was a factor in the 2018 wave election that gave Democrats control of the House. A 2018 Reuters-Ipsos poll found Medicare for All was supported by 70 percent of all voters, including 85 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of Republicans.

And now, with the Covid 19 pandemic devastating the economy-- and with millions of workers losing employer-provided health insurance along with their jobs-- support for Medicare for All is greater than ever.

As the Norcross candidate, Brigid Harrison can’t afford to support Medicare for All. George Norcross is not only Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Cooper; he’s also Executive Chairman of Conner, Strong & Buckelew, a huge insurance brokerage where employee benefits packages are a big part of the business. Thus the sale of private, for-profit health insurance provides much of his personal income.

As you know, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy sponsored earlier Medicare for All bills in the 109th and 110th Congresses, before the Democratic leadership took all single payer proposals off the table in 2009 in order to support the ACA. And even earlier, JFK proposed Medicare for seniors as only a first step toward universal coverage. So your embrace of Medicare for All could be seen as an embrace of a family tradition.

Supporting Medicare for All will help you win the July 7 primary. And your victory will be a major setback for the Norcross machine-- a very good thing for South Jersey!

Will There Be A Democrat In Position To Beat DCCC/Republican Jefferson Van Drew?

In 2018, after trying and failing for years, the DCCC had what it wanted and celebrated as a great triumph. They successfully recruited the single worst Democrat-- as in most conservative and most GOP/NRA-friendly-- in the New Jersey legislature, Jeff Van Drew, to run for Congress. As soon as Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo announced his retirement, Van Drew jumped in-- with the DCCC behind him.

With heavy DCCC backing, Van Drew managed to raise $1,881,731 for the 2018 election. His GOP opponent, Seth Grossman raised just $304,872. Outside groups spent over a million dollars on behalf of Van Drew, more than half coming from the conservative National Association of Realtors, which normally contributes to Republicans and very conservative Democrats. It was surprising that the under-funded Republican in the race, Seth Grossman kept it close and that Van Drew only beat him 136,685 (52.9%) to 116,866 (45.2%).

In Congress, Van Drew was the worst Dem in the House, consistent in his support for Trump and for GOP obstructionism. A radical Blue Dog, by December he did what Blue Dogs often to-- quit the Democratic Party. He joined the GOP in return for a promise from Trump to clear the field for him so that he would have no primary.

The same corrupt party machine-- run by George Norcross-- that picked Van Drew with the DCCC, immediate teamed up with Cheri Bustos to pick Brigid Harrison as the machine candidate. They gave her the endorsements of all their hacks-- the chairs of 5 of the 8 county Democratic Party committees, state Senate president Stephen Sweeney and Cory Booker, hoping to scare off any opposition. It didn't work. A Kennedy-- Amy, wife of former Congressman Patrick Kennedy-- jumped into the race and she was endorsed by the Communication Workers of America, by the Working Families Party and, the biggest and one of the bluest of the counties Democratic Party committee, Atlantic County. A progressive also decided to run again, Will Cunningham, an openly gay African-American attorney who grew up poor and, despite being homeless at one point as a teen, went to an Ivy League university and became an Obama administration official, and Cory Booker, had taken Van Drew on in the 2018 primary. Cunningham has been endorsed by environmental groups and DFA. He backs Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, campaign finance reform and other positions that separate progressives from garden variety status quo Democrats.

"The DCCC," Cunningham said in 2018, "needs to take a look at themselves in the mirror and make sure we’re reflective of who we’re sending to D.C. We as the Democratic Party, if we’re going to talk the talk, we’ve got to walk the walk."

A South Jersey friend of mine told me that "While Cunningham is a good guy and undoubtedly the most progressive, he has zero chance. Even in a normal year, NJ-02 is a hard district to push a grassroots movement because of how spread out it is, making door knocking very challenging. But, without retail politics possible before the primary, Cunningham has done nothing to show he ought to be taken seriously as a candidate (very little money-- $79,841, compared to $258,345 for Harrison and $807,580 for Kennedy-- volunteers, events, etc).

My same South Jersey friend also told me that Kennedy is "reasonably" progressive-- more so than her husband,--and has been endorsed by many of the progressive activists in the area. "Given that Cunningham has not made himself viable--sadly-- by falling into the trap of a lot of progressive candidates of believing their good ideas will bring people to the polls, Kennedy has got to be the choice to prevent a Norcross win, even if just for the symbolic value to show the outer edges of the empire aren't as well defended as people might think. She seems to have a real chance to win."

New Jersey has been hit hard by the pandemic, second only to New York. 145,490 residents have tested positive and over 10,000 have died. the caseload per million is 16,380-- worse than Spain, Italy, the U.K. and France combined. But NJ-02-- other than Ocean County-- has gotten off relatively easy. These are the 8 counties that make up the district in order of population. The number below is the number of cases in each county:

• Atlantic- 1,693
• Cape May- 508
• Cumberland- 1,488
• Glouster- 1,788
• Salem- 446
• Ocean- 7,829
• Camden- 5,442
• Burlington- 3,849

The anger towards Republicans in areas with worse pandemic experiences are not likely to be as strong in NJ-02... at least not so far. North Jersey seems to be seeing their numbers go down. We'll see what happens to the southern part of the state.

Trump And The DCCC Are Turning NJ-02 Into A Political Cesspool Already

Van Drew was always a Republican-- and now it's official

In the 2018 cycle, conservative then-"Democrat" Jeff Van Drew wasn’t one of the party’s star fundraisers, although he did bring in $1,881,731, despite a very right-wing voting record in the Jersey state legislature. The 3 other successful challengers in New Jersey that year all did significantly better than Van Drew did:

• Andy Kim (NJ-03)- $6,339,770
• Tom Malinowski (NJ-07)- $6,254,566
• Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)- $8,489,793

And so far this cycle, all were beating Van Drew as well, Democratic donors being unimpressed with Van Drew's repulsive record in the House and his virtual residency at Fox News.

• Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02)- $1,276,316
• Andy Kim (NJ-03)- $1,700,707
• Tom Malinowski (NJ-07)- $1,720,429
• Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)- $1,841,106

And then Trump lured Van Drew into switching parties, promising him an active endorsement, not just against whichever Democrat wins the primary, but also against the 3 Republicans who had been running all year by screeching that Van Drew is a “Socialist!!!” and a Nancy Pelosi lover. And Trump promised money and staff. A Trump SuperPAC has already injected $250,000 into the race and, on Trump's command, the GOP sent over two notorious Jersey GOP sleaze bags to run his campaign, Bill Stepien and Ron Filan.

The Republicans running against him hadn’t raised much money and will in all likelihood now see all sources of funds, other than their own bank accounts, dry up entirely.

• David Richter- $412,760 of which $300,000 was self funded
• Bob Paterson- $100,342
• Brian Fitzherbert- $21,287

Since Van Drew is now being considered a Republican incumbent, the NRCC version of the Cheri Bustos rule applies. Anyone who works for a campaign challenging him-- even though they had been encouraged to work for that campaign until 2 weeks ago-- will be blackballed by RepublicanWorld. (Note: people like Cheri Bustos should not be part of Democratic Party leadership. Except for identity politics issues, she’s a Republican from her toes to the top of her head.)

Politico has been helping rewrite history and has participated in twisting the Van Drew story entirely. Matt Freidman wrote that Van Drew “had been planning to seek reelection as a Democrat.” That was once true, but not since Van Drew decided to vote against impeaching Trump. It was then that he saw his support starting to plunge and it was then that more observant observers noted that Van Drew would be running for reelection as a Republican-- not after the vote. into in the 20s when he announced he would vote against impeaching Trump. The head of the biggest county Democratic Party in his district warned that if he voted for impeachment he’d be toast 2 weeks earlier. Freidman wrote that “After a frantic and unsuccessful effort to shore up party support-- Democratic leaders were abandoning him-- Van Drew switched to the GOP and, in a formal announcement, pledged his ‘undying support’ to Trump as he sat next to the president in the Oval Office.” The die had been cast when Van Drew was on Fox before the impeachment vote using GOP talking points to deride Democrats and belittle the whole reason for impeachment.

The presumed front-runner before the big switch was David Richter, former CEO of a family-founded company, Hill International. “Richter,” wrote Freidman, “quickly found his top political consultants and much of his staff leaving his campaign so as not to alienate the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is backing the newly-minted GOP incumbent. ‘The NRCC basically pulled them in and said, You need to be working for a Republican incumbent, and if you work for a Republican running against an incumbent, you’ll essentially be blackballed from doing further work,’ Richter said. Chris Russell, who had been one of Richter’s consultants, said his firm’s decision not to work against a party-endorsed incumbent was ‘our choice’ because ‘we felt it was a conflict.’ NRCC spokesperson Michael McAdams said in a statement the committee ‘doesn’t blacklist consultants.’” The DCCC, pre-Bustos, used to say the same thing. It was never true, although it was Bustos who made it formal.

In his piece, Freidman put of NRCC propaganda that Van Drew is the local boy and that the other three Republicans are carpetbaggers. “The other three Republicans claim connection to the district, though they have all recently lived somewhere else.”

Richter was a longtime Princeton resident, which is far outside the district, and rented a home less than two years ago in Miami Beach, Fla., where he planned to move and where he voted in 2018 before ultimately deciding to stay in New Jersey. He moved into the district in the fall, while his children continue to go to school in Princeton.

Fitzherbert, who grew up in North Jersey, has owned a home in the district since he was 23 but has moved around the country in recent years “as a result of the demands of the job,” and only began voting in the 2nd District in June 2018.

Patterson, who grew up in a different part of South Jersey, ran unsuccessfully for Congress in New Jersey’s neighboring 1st District in 2016 after living in Virginia for about 20 years.

Prior to Van Drew, Richter had been the main target of Fitzherbert and Patterson. They both pointed out that his company, Hill International, had hired former Vice President Joe Biden’s brother as an executive of a subsidiary around the same time it secured a housing contract in Iraq, which ultimately fell through.

Richter said it was his father’s decision to hire Biden‘s brother, and that he had warned against it. “The whole time we were in this business, I was pushing my dad to end it. And finally after several years of losses, he finally ended it and shut the whole thing down,” he said.

Fitzherbert’s campaign pointed out that Richter’s voting record was spotty, and that he had not voted in nearly half the primary and general elections in recent years.

Fitzherbert and Patterson [basically vanity candidates, especially Fitzherbert, who is also considered to be severely mentally ill even for a Republican] have potential weaknesses as well.

Fitzherbert has struggled to raise money, while Patterson has a history of controversial public statements, including favorably summarizing a study in a conservative journal in which he and a co-author wrote that using condoms “robs a woman of all these remarkable chemicals” found in semen.

That statement, along with Patterson’s writings that criticized women choosing careers over marriage and raising children, led to his resignation in 2012 as an adviser to then-Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett after the Philadelphia Inquirer raised questions about them.

“I have written hundreds of articles over my career, and some of those articles dared to question or debunk liberal groupthink on many issues,” Patterson said. “In other cases, I was summarizing scientific findings of empirical studies that someone else conducted.”

With the support of Trump and the NRCC, Van Drew is the new frontrunner. Pressure will build on local leaders to back him as well, giving him the “party line,” which in most of the district bestows favorable ballot placement.

The fact that all three remain committed to the race poses another danger. Even if Republican primary voters are suspicious of Van Drew’s motives for fleeing the Democratic Party, they might split their votes among the three challengers.

…Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray suggested the primary may get less crowded if local Republican leaders fall in line behind Van Drew-- something that’s already beginning with some local GOP chairs.

“Right now, it looks like it’s going to be crowded, but it could end up falling by the wayside if you have some key leaders ... coming out in support of a particular candidate,” Murray said. “If it happens to be Van Drew, you’re going to see the entire party get in line by the April filing deadline.”

The race won’t be over with the primary. Despite its Trump leaning, the 2nd District remains highly competitive, and Democrats plan to compete there. Three candidates-- political science professor Brigid Harrison, Atlantic County Freeholder Ashley Bennett and environmentalist John Francis-- are seeking the Democratic nomination.

“Certainly this leans Republican, and whoever the nominee is will be considered the favorite,’ but by how much of a favorite really depends on the presidential election,” Murray said.

The DCCC/EMILY’s List candidate, Brigid Harrison, also just happens to be the Norcross South Jersey machine candidate-- the same bunch of crooks who brought us Jefferson Van Drew… so of course the DCCC and EMILY’s List looked to them to pick the next candidate.

The Norcross Machine Is Determined To Pick Another Congress Member To Replace Their Jeff Van Drew

The DCCC had been trying to recruit Jeff Van Drew for years. He was the perfect candidate for them-- a South Jersey machine-backed hack in the state legislature who tended to vote with the GOP more frequently than any of his colleagues. Although Obama comfortably won the district (NJ-02) twice, the long-time mainstream conservative congressman, Frank LoBiondo, seemed untouchable. The machine and the DCCC decided that the only way too beat him would be with an extremely right-wing Democrat: Van Drew. But Van Drew wasn’t interested in giving up his safe seat. So he flirted with the DCCC but never but out-- until LoBiondo announced he was finished… and retiring. At that point, Van Drew jumped right in with support for the machine, the DCCC and even his colleagues in the state Senate who were eager to be rid of him and pass the Van Drew problem on to DC Dems. “We were delighted,” one of his former Trenton colleagues told me, “to see him take his anti-environmental, anti-gay, anti-women, NRA A+ to Washington… Good riddance!”

His decision to jump the fence didn’t surprise anyone in Jersey politics-- and shouldn’t have surprised anyone who reads DWT since we had been predicting it for months… and celebrating it once knew for certain that he was about to make it official. Reactionary Blue Dogs-- especially intellectually-impaired ones and especially ones who live at Fox News the way he does and who say the kinds of anti-Democratic crap he does, usually switch parties. It was just a matter of when. A couple of days ago, Ben Jacobs of New York Magazine explained how it happened. Basically, he wrote “Van Drew panicked. Last week, the first-term conservative Democrat polled his district about his opposition to impeachment. The results were very one-sided. Over 70 percent of Democratic primary voters would be less likely to support him if he voted against impeaching Donald Trump. Van Drew immediately went silent and was unreachable by allies [DCCC chair Cheri Bustos] in the party. The next day, he was meeting with Donald Trump at the White House to discuss switching parties. Within 48 hours, word had leaked out about his decision and, within a week, Van Drew was on cable news pledging his “undying support” to a president whom he voted against 93 percent of the time."

A longtime state senator from South Jersey with a reputation for being a “right-leaning moderate” in Trenton, Van Drew “was used to getting some backlash from members of his own party who didn’t think he was sufficiently liberal,” said one New Jersey operative who worked with him in the past. But the operative said “this whole process started happening” when Van Drew became one of two Democrats to vote against opening the impeachment inquiry on October 31. Advisers had urged Van Drew to vote yes to keep his options open, but the New Jersey representative barged ahead.

The initial vote against opening the inquiry came as a particular shock to local Democrats only days before state legislative elections in New Jersey. “People were freaking out,” said Michael Suleiman, the chair of the Atlantic County Democratic Committee.

Van Drew offered a variety of reasons for opposing impeachment. Sometimes he argued the process was ill-advised with an election less than a year away. On other occasions, he said that he didn’t see enough evidence to convict Trump.

One well-connected South Jersey Democrat told New York, “He never really had a rationale that was consistent. You need to have your own narrative. Not a Republican-lite narrative, but a Jeff Van Drew narrative.” However, the New Jersey operative noted that Van Drew did not seem to view his opposition to impeachment as being “pro-Trump at first,” but simply an effort to be reflective of his district. And then “he started spiraling.”

Although Jacobs asserts that the 2018 election was “relatively easy,” he’s wrong. It should have been relatively easy. The GOP put up a pyscho-clown that even Republican voters were uncomfortable with. Van Drew out-spent him $1,877,531 to $299,475, Van Drew only managed 52.9% of the vote-- less than Obama did both times he ran. DCCC and its allies spent another million dollars smearing Republican Seth Grossman and the NRCC ignored the race entirely. In the end, Van Drew won the 4 biggest counties and lost the 4 smallest, although he didn’t live up to expectations in Cape May or Gloucester. Turnout wasn’t as strong as it should have been, primarily because progressives just didn’t want to cast their ballots for someone who holds Van drew’s reactionary ideology… “Van Drew,” admitted Jacobs, “felt bruised that his victory was not by the margins he was accustomed to in his past legislative wins, according to the South Jersey Democrat-- even though federal races are far more partisan than state-level races. The result prompted Van Drew to go back to his playbook from his days in Trenton and try to demonstrate his bipartisan credentials.” Exactly the wrong move.

Although the New Jersey operative described Van Drew as very attentive to polls in the state legislature, the congressman had long been reluctant to actually put a poll in the field on impeachment. It was suggested that he knew the data “would put him in a box” and he was afraid to see it. When he finally commissioned a poll, in conjunction with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, he “genuinely freaked out” when he saw the results.

From that moment, it was only several days before Van Drew defected to the GOP. Former White House political director Bill Stepien and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie tried to clear a path for the congressman among Republicans in the Garden State. Kellyanne Conway, who was the only White House staffer present for Van Drew’s meeting with Trump, played a vital role as well.

Van Drew was the first member of Congress to switch parties in almost a decade. The last one to do so, Parker Griffith, a one-term congressman from Alabama who switched from Democrat to Republican in 2009, told New York, “Ordinarily, it’s a mistake to switch parties. I made a mistake by switching parties. The mistake I made-- I made an assumption that everybody knew as much about politics as we did in D.C., and it really is an emotional decision.”

Griffith was skeptical of Van Drew’s choice. “I hope he’s got a better handle on what he’s doing than I did.” The former congressman compared Van Drew’s Oval Office handshake with Trump to “fondling a rattlesnake.” He added, “I’m sure it made him feel good temporarily, but I don’t think Trump makes friends well, and doesn’t keep them well.”

Van Drew now faces a number of political obstacles. As Suleiman told New York, he is “now persona non grata with Democrats.” The local county chair, who had been fiercely critical of Van Drew’s stance on impeachment before his defection, said, “No one likes a weasel, and no one likes a turncoat.” Already, several Democrats are running for the party’s nomination in 2020. Brigid Callahan Harrison, a political-science professor at Montclair State University, is currently considered the favorite.

She’s certainly the favorite of the grotesquely corrupt Norcross machine that had made Van Drew’s career. And because Norcross is behind her, Bustos and the DCCC are behind her. Trump is behind Van Drew, of course, but there were already 3 loyal Republicans running against him when he switched parties, including a very wealthy self-funder, Dave Richter. Trump will hold one of his bund rallies in NJ-02 early in the New Year.

Griffith, who eventually returned to the Democratic Party after losing his primary as a newly minted Republican in 2010, noted the personal cost that Van Drew could face as well.

“He’s alienated a lot of people who put their faith in him,” said Griffith. Reflecting on his own experience, the former Alabama congressman said, “When you look in the faces of people you disappoint, and the tears in their eyes, and to this day it breaks my heart to think about it.”

The hope for Van Drew is that his embrace of Trump will help convince voters that his party switch was motivated by a crisis of conscience, rather than a crisis of polling, and ease any bitterness. But it is a big risk for the freshman congressman who represents Atlantic City-- a community that’s had bad experiences betting on Trump in the past.

On Monday, Greg Giroux wrote for Bloomberg News that Van Drew’s chances to win are iffy “House party-switchers,” he wrote, “have a mixed electoral record, with some going on to win re-election while others facing primary defeats by voters unconvinced by their political conversion… Even with presidential support, Van Drew can’t expect a coronation in the June 2020 Republican primary against opponents who have been campaigning for months to unseat him. ‘As a lifelong conservative Republican, I have a message for liberal Switcheroo Van Drew: Bring it on,’ Bob Patterson, one of the candidates running in the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 2nd District, said in a Dec. 19 statement. Patterson criticized Van Drew as ‘pro-choice, pro-amnesty and anti-Trump.’” But can that message win when Trump is behind him?

Brigid Harrison, the Machine/DCCC candidate, lives in Longport, which has always been a very exclusive area of the shore… kind of an “old money” area-- and the wrong look for the Democratic Party. Ashley Bennett announced on Friday. Last year she was elected to the Atlantic County Board of Freeholders, having gained a good reputation for challenging incumbent Freeholder John Carman after he posted a meme critical of the national Women’s March. Like most of the candidates running, Bennett is African-American. The Machine, of coursed, insisted on a white person. Amy Kennedy-- wife of Patrick Kennedy-- is also running. They live in Brigantine, another exclusive community for wealthy white people.

Other candidates who have already thrown their hats into the ring are John Francis, a West Cape May commissioner, who spent “nearly three decades as a planet walker, playing the banjo and ‘traveling the globe by foot and said with a message of environmental respect and responsibility.  He spent seventeen years without speaking.”





Another Freeholder, Jack Surrency, from Cumberland County, is also running for the seat. We’ll spend some time trying to figure out who the best candidate or candidates are as alternatives to the Norcorss Machine’s Van Drew and Harrison. Meanwhile, if you're interested in helping keep the DCCC from recruiting and electing more Jeff Van Drew types, please consider supporting the candidates here, at the Primary A Blue Dog ActBlue page. Have't they done enough damage to the Democratic Party already-- and not just in New Jersey?

Good Riddance, Jeff Van Drew, Who Has Always Belonged In The GOP

If you're a regular DWT reader, the Washington Post and NY Times pieces from earlier today should come as no surprise: Blue Dog and fake-Democrat Jefferson Van Drew is jumping the fence and becoming a Republican instead of just voting like one. Mike DeBonis, Rachel Bade and Josh Hawsey wrote it up. And Jonathan Martin did the honors for the Times. The Post crew said his switch to the GOP-- after a meeting with Señor Trumpanzee on Friday-- would be a "political jolt to Democrats ahead of next week’s expected vote to impeach the president." Why? Have they not be noticing how he votes? Progressive Punch doesn't just rate his voting record an "F." They show he has the most anti-progressive record of any Democrat (19.23)-- and more conservative than independent former Republican Justin Amash (32.93) and 3 Republicans, Brian Fitzpatrick (28.57), Thomas Massie (28.33) and John Katko (21.20). Van Drew's voting record is closer to conservative Republican Elise Stefanik's (16.10) than it is to the next worst Democrat, Anthony Brindisi (23.08). The New Jersey Democratic Party has already been warning that they would not back him in a primary fight, although, of course, DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos has been firmly on his side and has offered to spend whatever he needed for reelection.

Two Democratic officials familiar with Van Drew’s discussions in recent days said they believe he has decided to switch parties. The White House meeting was confirmed by a Trump administration official and one of the Democratic officials.

Van Drew and Rep. Collin C. Peterson, a veteran Minnesota Democrat who represents a much more conservative district than Van Drew’s, were the only two Democrats to vote against a House resolution in October formalizing the impeachment inquiry.

Van Drew’s decision to oppose impeachment badly alienated Democratic voters in his district, sparking a primary challenge that threatened his prospects for reelection.

A polling memo obtained by the Washington Post, citing results of a Dec. 7-10 survey of likely Democratic voters commissioned by Van Drew’s campaign, found that only 24 percent believed that he should be reelected, with 58 percent wanting another Democrat nominated for the seat.

Speculation about a potential party switch has swirled for days on Capitol Hill and inside New Jersey political circles. Van Drew on Tuesday denied that he was switching parties, as he maintained that he would vote against impeachment.

“I’m not changing anything-- just doing my job,” he said in a brief interview. “I’m still a Democrat, right here.”

Asked if Republicans had approached him about a party switch, he said, “I’m not talking about other people and what they’re doing.”

A few weeks ago, Van Drew's handpicked candidate to replace him in the state Senate, another GOP-lite conservative pretending to be a Democrat,, was defeated. Bob Andrzejczak is a Van Drew clone and he lost to Republican Mike Testa in a district that includes much of Van Drew's-- 27,163 (53.5%) to 23,636 (46.5%.

Van Drew is hardly the first Blue Dog to jump the fence. The name "Blue Dog" came from Fort Worth conservative Democrat Pete Geren who switched to the GOP and got a job from George W. Bush. Three other Blue Dog founders, Billy Tauzin (LA), Gene Taylor (MS), Nathan Deal (GA), Jimmy Hayes (LA), Ralph Hall (TX), also became Republicans. Since the desertion of the founders many more Blue Dogs have jumped ship, especially Blue Dogs from the old slave holding states, such as Parker Griffith (AL), Charles Canady (FL), Artur Davis (AL), and Virgil Goode (VA).

I guess he won't be part of this one-- but he has already collected $1,276,316 this year as a Democratic candidate, including large amounts from unions and from Democratic leadership PACs (about a hundred thousand dollars), including Steny Hoyer's PAC. Before Trump bribed him on Friday, Van Drew had very publicly promised he would stay a Democrat, so he really should give all that money back that he took under false pretenses.

I Am Hoping That Jefferson Van Drew Leaves The Democratic Party-- It's Very Important That He Does

Last month we asked when Jeff Van Drew would leave the Democratic Party and join the GOP. Looks like that idea is spreading in New Jersey. Keep in mind that of the 234 Democrats in the House, there can only be one "worst" and ProgressivePunch rates that one Jefferson Van Drew, South Jersey Blue Dog who was aggressively recruited by the Einsteins at the DCCC, even though because he was the worst member of the New Jersey state Senate. Van Drew's lifetime crucial vote score is 20.00%. By way of comparison, Michigan Republican-turned-Independent Justin Amash's score is 32.89%. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) has a 28.87%, Thomas Massie's (R-KY) is 28.25%) and John Katko's is 21.33%. The DCCC is working to defeat Amash and the 3 Republicans and to prop up Van Drew-- even though the Amash and the 3 Republicans vote more progressively than Van Drew. Funny world, isn't it?

After longtime Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo retired last year, NJ-02 should have been an easy win for Van Drew. But he only took 52.9% against Seth Grossman, a clod-like GOP opponent, who spent just $299,475 to Van Drew's $1,877,531. Van Drew had about $1.1 million in outside spending from the DCCC and other groups that support conservative Democrats. Grossman had zero dollars from the NRCC or from an other groups. Even the National Association of Realtors, a traditional GOP donor, ignored him and spent massively on helping Van Drew.

There are 8 counties or parts of counties in Van Drew's district. Atlantic County is, by far, the most populous. It's performance in his race was D+15 and without it he would have lost. The chairman of the Atlantic County Democratic Party, Michael Suleiman, wrote Van Drew a letter this week that if he doesn't vote for impeachment-- he has said he's not going to-- he would have a tough time winning a primary. Suleiman told him that “a majority of my (county committee) members were very upset” with his vote against opening an impeachment inquiry five days before the 2019 general election.

“Candidly, it was a big distraction for my candidates and municipal leaders in Atlantic County during the tail end of the general election cycle,” Suleiman said. “Now that the 2019 election is over and the House seems poised to take action, I am imploring you to vote in favor of impeachment.”

Van Drew is almost certain to face a primary challenge if he votes against impeaching Trump and Suleiman appears to suggest that he can’t guarantee the freshman 2nd district congressman would secure organizational support for re-election when Democrats hold their county convention in March.

Brigid Callahan Harrison, a prominent political science professor who lives in Atlantic County is already mulling a congressional bid.

“Next year, as we are defending two freeholder seats, a constitutional officer, and Democratic majorities in two municipalities, a ‘no’ vote on impeachment will suppress Democratic turnout down-ballot, which my organization cannot sustain,” Suleiman told Van Drew. “Atlantic County Democrats have a tough time as it is facing 100 years of Boardwalk Empire; we cannot afford to have Democrats sit on their hands in a presidential year when we usually perform well.”

Van Drew has further angered local Democrats after making national television appearances crowing about his refusal to support the impeachment inquiry.

Trump has tweeted his appreciation to Van Drew three times, raising speculation in the district that the congressman might switch parties and seek re-election as a Republican.

Van Drew told CNN on Thursday that he intends to vote against all articles of impeachment.

“All of us should be on the right side of history during this very difficult time in our nation’s history,” said Suleiman. “Charlie Sandman lost the same seat that you hold for being on the wrong side of the Nixon impeachment, and I do not want to see our party face a similar fate.”

Suleiman told Van Drew that while New Jersey’s 2nd district is “moderate at best,” it is still more moderate than the legislative district he won seven times while running for the Assembly and State Senate.

“Voting for impeachment will undoubtedly hurt your standing with some Republican voters. However, as someone who has been in elected office for 30 years and has built up so much goodwill in South Jersey, I find it hard to believe that voters that have known you for decades will ditch you over one voted,” the Atlantic County Democratic leader said. “If anyone has banked the political capital necessary to take a hard vote, it is you.”

There is also friction between Van Drew and Democratic leaders in Cumberland County who have placed some of the blame for losing a State Senate seat and two Assembly seats in the 2017 mid-term elections on the congressman.

Two sources confirmed to The Globe that Cumberland County Freeholder Jack Surrency, a former two term Bridgeton councilman and former school  board member, is being encouraged to take on Van Drew.

In 2018, Van Drew flipped the 2nd district House seat after GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor) retired after 24 years in Congress.

He won the Democratic primary with 57% of the vote and won 62.5% in Atlantic County. Van Drew won the general election by a 53%-45% margin after national Republicans refused to support the GOP nominee, former Atlantic County Freeholder Seth Grossman.

The 2nd has 17,235 more Democrats than Republicans and gave Trump a 50%-46% win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

InsiderNJ, a political news site, reported on Thursday that West Cape May Commissioner John H. Francis III was considering a primary challenge to Van Drew.  Francis comes from a borough with just 1,024 residents and is still in his first term as a local official.

Two Democratic assemblymen, Vince Mazzeo (D-Northfield) and Adam Taliaferro (D-Woolwich), have said they are not interested in running for Congress.

Mazzeo refused to close the door on entering the race if Van Drew decides not to seek re-election.

So far, three Republicans have entered the race to run against Van Drew: former Hill International CEO David Richter, former Trump administration appointee Robert Patterson, and former Atlantic County Young Republican Chairman Brian Fitzpatrick.

Joseph “Rudy” Rullo, who sought the Republican nomination for governor in 2017, is also considering a congressional run.

Van Drew constantly uses Republican talking points to belittle and demean Democratic values and principles and finds a spiritual-spiritual home at Fox News. He doesn't belong in the House Democratic caucus-- and the people responsible for recruiting him to run don't belong in the DCCC. It is widely rumored in Congress that he will vote against impeachment and then leave the party, just as Blue Dogs have done in the past. It's what Blue Dogs do. It's who they are. Please consider helping progressive candidates who are running for Congress in districts with Blue Dog and New Dem incumbents. You can do that right here. And as soon as there's a progressive opponent confirmed to be running against Van Drew in NJ-02-- either in the primary or in the general if he decides to run as a Republican-- he or she will be added to the list.

The GOP Says It Wants To Win Back 5 New Jersey House Seats. OK, I Want To Get Back To My Stamina From When I Was 18-- Neither's Going To Happen

2020 is going to be a bad year for congressional Republicans. The Democrats may lose a few seats in very red districts where "accidental" freshmen have been disappointing Democratic voters by running up horrible records as Blue Dogs. I would imagine waste-of-seat-holders like Joe Cunningham (SC), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Kendra Horn (Oklahoma)... perhaps Xochitl Torres Small (NM), Abigail Spanberger (VA) and Ben McAdams (UT). But these aren't just terrible members who betrayed their voters, they are all in very red districts:

• McAdams- R+13
• Cunningham- R+10
• Horn- R+10
• Torres Small- R+6
• Brindisi- R+6
• Spanberger- R+6

These are districts where Democrats lose if they can't motivate their base, including left-leaning independents. This half dozen slugs have done the exact opposite, apparently living in a Cheri Bustos/Steny Hoyer induced dream world where Republicans vote for conservative Democrats in big enough numbers to make up for disappointed progressive voters.

But House Democrats are better off without these 6 shitheads and they will pick up far more Republican seats to more than make up for the losses. We're looking at another strong anti-red wave forming up. I had to laugh yesterday when I saw a post at The Hill by Naomi Jagoda, Republicans plot comeback in New Jersey. In a normal year, the GOP plans could work, but not with Trump on the top of the ticket. I acknowledge that the DCCC made sure the New Jersey delegation would be dominated by some exceptionally bad faux-Democrats. But the districts are unlikely to yield GOP wins in 2020, especially with the Republicans running against banning the sales of assault weapons, for example.

Jagoda pointed out that Republicans lost 4 seats last year, and one the cycle before, and have only one Republican in the Jersey delegation left. "In 2020," she reported, "the GOP thinks it has a decent chance of winning back three of those seats-- if things break the right way. But it won't be easy, and Democrats are optimistic that they’ll hold all of the seats." The Democrats are correct. First consider the districts themselves, regardless of how weak and unattractive the incumbents are. The final number after the PVI was Trump's percentage in 2016:

• NJ-02 (Jeff Van Drew)- R+1 (50.6%)
• NJ-03 (Andy Kim)- R+2 (51.4%)
• NJ-05 (Josh Gottheimer)- R+3 (48.8%)
• NJ-07 (Tom Malinowski)- R+3 (47.5%)
• NJ-11 (Mikie Sherrill)- R+3 (48.8%)

Those are all seats that will be in major jeopardy in 2022, but not next year.

“I think the Democratic incumbents are at least slightly favored in all four of the districts that flipped in 2018, but Republicans have a chance in all of them,” said John Weingart, associate director of Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University who has worked in New Jersey state government during both Democratic and Republican administrations.

New Jersey has long voted for Democrats for president and senator, but the state has typically been more mixed in House and state-level races.

However, Republicans have fared poorly in recent congressional elections. While the GOP held six of the state’s 12 House seats before the 2016 elections, they now only hold one of them.

The remaining Republican lawmaker, Rep. Chris Smith, has taken moderate stances, such as voting for legislation to raise the minimum wage and co-sponsoring legislation with Democrats aimed at preventing gun violence.

...The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) lists all five New Jersey districts that flipped in 2016 and 2018 as targets. A GOP aide with knowledge of Republicans’ 2020 strategy said that the state’s 2nd, 3rd and 7th Districts are good pickup opportunities.

Republicans plan to link the incumbent Democrats to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and to freshman progressive star Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to argue that Congressional Democrats have become too liberal. And they hope that a presidential election year will boost Republican turnout, helping them win over the districts that Trump carried in 2016, though the president remains largely unpopular in the state.

Democrats don't plan to make it easy. A national Democratic strategist said that some of the New Jersey races could be tough but that the incumbents are focused on local issues, such as an unpopular cap on the state and local tax deduction in Trump's tax law, or advancing the Gateway Project to build a new tunnel between New York and New Jersey.

The New Jersey race that is thought to be most competitive is the 3rd district in the southern part of the state, which is currently represented by freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, a former State Department official who beat two-term Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) last year.

The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race as a "toss-up."

For Democrats, “the third district will be the hardest to hold onto,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump carried the district by about six points in 2016, even as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton prevailed over Trump by nearly 15 points in the state.

No Republican has formally entered the race yet, though Republicans are excited that former Burlington County elected official Kate Gibbs is reportedly considering running.

Kim has been focused on meeting with his constituents. By the end of August, he will have held 11 town halls in his district since taking office.

“Everywhere I go, the people of this district know what’s at stake next year and they’re ready to fight for a government that works for them,” Kim said in a statement to The Hill. "I’m going to keep working to put my community first.”

Kim is the weakest of the 5 incumbents and comes across as a political coward, afraid to get behind issues that should be easy in a district that just sent him to Congress. For example, he is one of just 35 Democrats refusing to co-sponsor the assault weapons ban-- a deadly mistake in a district that is 94.4% suburban. Overly cautious, Kim has turned out to be far more conservative than the district. If the Republicans manage to win one seat-- which is unlikely-- it will be his. The only other Jersey Dem refusing to sign the assault weapons ban in long-time NRA-ally, Jeff van Drew, the single most right-wing Democrat in the House. But even he's probably safe this cycle.

The 2nd District, currently held by Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D), and the 7th District, held by Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), are also seen as potential pick-up opportunities. These races are rated as leaning Democratic by both Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

The 2nd District, at the southern tip of the state, is more blue-collar than some of the other districts in New Jersey, and Trump carried the district in 2016 by 4.6 points.

Several Republicans have announced their candidacies for the seat, including businessman David Richter, defense contractor program manager Brian Fitzherbert, and former Trump administration Social Security official Bob Patterson.

Republicans plan to argue that Van Drew is too liberal for the district, which voted twice for former President Obama but had long been held by GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo until he retired in early 2019.

“With a well-run campaign, it’s a very winnable race,” said Ethan Zorfas, a general consultant for the Fitzherbert campaign.

Chris Russell, a consultant with the Richter campaign, said “there’s a lot of history of recent Republican success” in the district and Van Drew’s success in 2018 was “the outlier, not the rule.”

Van Drew, who fashions himself as a moderate, said he feels positive about his chances of winning reelection.

“I feel good. The reason that I do is partially because I try to be, and I believe I am, an independent thinker,” he told The Hill in an interview. “I’ve been fortunate that I have support cross party, Democrats, Republicans and independents.”

Political analysts said that Van Drew’s profile as a moderate, as well as the fact that he’s well-known in the district from his previous tenure as a state senator, pose challenges for Republicans.

“He has been around so long in that part of the state that he really has his own following,” Murray said.

The 7th District, represented by Malinowski, is one of the wealthiest and most-highly educated districts in the country and includes some suburbs of New York City. Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district in the 2016 presidential election.

Republicans think they have a good shot at winning back the 7th District because of their confidence in one of the candidates vying for the GOP nomination in the race, Tom Kean.

Kean is the minority leader of the state senate and son of a popular former governor. The NRCC on Friday placed him in its Young Guns program that mentors and supports candidates.

“[Kean] has a recognized brand in the district,” said Harrison Nealy, a consultant with Kean's campaign.

Republicans also see the race as attractive because they view Malinowski as too liberal for the district. Malinowski, unlike many other freshmen lawmakers in competitive districts, has come out in support of an impeachment inquiry for Trump.

But political analysts warn that Trump is unpopular in the district, which is emblematic of the type of affluent, suburban seat where Republicans especially struggled last year.

Democrats, meanwhile, argue that Malinowski has been focused on issues of importance to his constituents.

"Tom Malinowski is one of Congress' most vocal advocates for the Gateway Tunnel and is a proven fighter for common sense gun safety legislation,” a source close to the incumbent's campaign said. “He strives everyday to make decisions based on principle not politics and is focused solely on being available and responsive to the needs of his constituents."

The NRCC has also named New Jersey’s 5th and 11th Districts as targets, but those races are viewed as less likely to be competitive. Cook rates both as “likely Democratic,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views them as safe for Democrats.

Both of these districts are located in the New York suburbs and are represented by Democrats who are viewed as moderates and adept fundraisers.

No Republican is currently challenging freshman Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the 11th District. But several Republicans have announced that they are running in the 5th District, represented by two-term Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who also faces a Democratic challenger.

“Since the day I decided to run for Congress, I’ve been relentlessly focused on making people’s lives better in New Jersey and across the country,” Sherrill said in a statement to The Hill. “I’m prioritizing issues that will secure our future: getting rid of the SALT deduction cap, lowering healthcare costs, and improving our infrastructure.”

The Republicans, foolishly, are campaigning against these generally conservative Democrats by calling them all socialists. It's especially hilarious in Van Drew's case, since his voting record is to the right of several Republicans, including John Katko (R-NY), Tom Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). The DCCC is incompetent and lame beyond belief. The NRCC is at least as big a joke.