What Trump's Toxicity Is Costing The Republican Party-- Let's Take Omaha And The Surrounding Suburbs, For Example

 

NE-02 can deliver more than just a member of Congress; it can also deliver one presidential electoral vote. That vote has only gone to a Democrat-- Obama in 2008-- one time. Polling indicates that electoral vote is going to go to Biden this cycle, as the district flips blue in both the presidential and congressional contests. Kara Eastman looks like she'll be replacing Trump shill Donald J Bacon in Congress and she's working hard to turn out voters who will support not just her own campaign but Biden's and other Democrats as well. Kara, who's perspective is far more populist and progressive than Biden's is being helped by Biden, just as Biden is being helped by her. Syncronicity. But both candidates owe one man the lion's share of credit for their good polling: Trump.

Politico writer David Siders reported yesterday that it's Trump's collapse in red-leaning Omaha suburbs that has resulted in a 6-7 point overall polling deficit for him. He'd wrote that what's happening in NE-02 is a case study of "how the president’s alienation of a traditional Republican constituency is proving costly to his reelection campaign-- and how his increasingly desperate last-minute appeals to suburbanites are going unheeded."

“If you look at the struggle that Trump has going on in the suburbs, it’s just super consistent,” said Ryan Horn, a Republican media strategist based in Omaha. “What you see in Nebraska 2 you’ll see in Dallas, Texas, you’ll see in Charlotte, North Carolina, you’ll see in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, you’ll see in Orange County, California … It’s super, super consistent.”

The Omaha World-Herald, which until endorsing Hillary Clinton in 2016 hadn’t backed Democrat for president since 1932, endorsed Joe Biden recently, pleading for a break from Trump’s “recklessness.” And Don Bacon, the district’s Republican congressman, has been forced to remind voters that he is not in lockstep with Trump.

“Kara Eastman frequently on TV and on radio says I’ve sworn a loyalty oath to the president,” Bacon complained in a recent debate with Eastman, his Democratic challenger. “And it’s a lie.”

Not long ago, Nebraska Republicans couldn’t have fathomed such a problem at the top of the ticket in their state, which awards one electoral vote in each of its three congressional districts and two electoral votes to the statewide winner. But in 2008, Barack Obama, carrying the 2nd District, picked off one of the electoral votes, marking the first time in 44 years that a Democrat had accomplished that feat.

Stunned, Republicans in the state’s legislature re-drew the 2nd District lines to make it safer for the GOP, adding the more conservative, western suburbs of Sarpy County to the city of Omaha. Obama lost the reconfigured district to Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump carried it narrowly four years later.

Today, despite the advantage of a favorable map, Trump is on the cusp of undoing the entire scheme. A New York Times/Siena College poll last month put Trump 7 percentage points behind Biden in the district, losing women by 11 percentage points and independent voters by 28 percentage points. Though Trump remained ahead of Biden in Sarpy County, the margin was not wide enough to compensate for his shortcomings in Omaha and the surrounding communities of Douglas County.

...Bacon, the 2nd District congressman who’s facing a rematch with Eastman, a progressive Democrat, said competing in urban and suburban areas can be a “challenge” for any Republican. What Trump has going for him, Bacon said, is “a thing in Nebraska where we are a little more conservative in nature.”

The unemployment rate in Nebraska is lowest in the nation, and Bacon said, “I tell people, ‘Who do you trust to bring the economy back?'"

However, Bacon said, “We’re also Nebraska nice... and we want more diplomacy and decency, and I think that’s what hurts the president.”

...Former state Sen. Burke Harr, a Democrat who represented central Omaha in the state legislature, said that unlike four years ago, “even chamber of commerce people I talk to are freely admitting they’re having a hard time justifying voting for Trump.” And the World-Herald seemed to have that chamber of commerce crowd in mind when it endorsed Biden, too.

The paper appealed directly to conservative readers in its endorsement of Biden this past weekend. “Trump’s departure from the White House,” the paper opined, “would benefit not only the country but also the Republican Party, by unshackling GOP officeholders from the slavish deference they’ve felt obligated to display to the president’s years-long series of eccentricities and embarrassments.”

The 2nd District’s single Electoral College vote is unlikely to tip the balance on Election Day. But there are scenarios in which a victory in the district could push Trump or Biden to the decisive number of 270 Electoral College votes.

Last month, when Republican Voters Against Trump, a group founded by former Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol, announced a six-figure digital ad buy in Nebraska’s 2nd District against Trump, it called the area a “tipping point,” noting that if “Joe Biden were to pick up Pennsylvania and Michigan, a victory in NE-2 would secure him the 270 votes he would need to clinch a presidential victory.”

“We’ve seen models that show that this district will make the difference in the presidential race,” said Kyle Clark, Bacon’s political director. “We are at ground zero.”

Flush with cash, Biden has spent about $2 million on advertising in the district since Labor Day, about six times what Trump has spent, according to the ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics. Jill Biden and Doug Emhoff, Sen. Kamala Harris’ husband, have appeared in recent weeks in Omaha. So have Karen Pence and Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law. On Tuesday, Donald Trump Jr. was there lacing into Biden and the “radical left.”

The full effect of Trump’s suburban deterioration on the rest of the GOP ticket remains unclear in Nebraska-- and across the country. But it is being tested in the congressional race between Bacon and Eastman... Eastman is working relentlessly to yoke Bacon to the president. In recent debates, she goaded Bacon for voting with Trump more than 90 percent of the time. She asked him if it was still an “easy choice” to endorse Trump.

Bacon, a co-chair of Trump’s re-election campaign in Nebraska, said that it was easy, contrasting Trump with Biden on economic and social issues.

However, he added, “I do not support the rhetoric. I don’t like the name calling.”

When Push Comes To Shove, What Do Blue Dogs Do? They Pull Off Their Masks And Show The World What They Always Are: Republicans

 

Two of the members of Congress I respect most, Ted Lieu (D-CA) and Jamie Raskin (D-MD) are in safe blue districts and have been working their asses off to elect other Democrats to Congress. Sometimes, it drives me crazy, though, that they are working to elect all Democrats-- from complete garbage like Oklahoma Blue Dog Kendra Horn to the top progressive challengers across the country. I had a good discussion with Ted about it but he was unshakable in his determination to elect more Democrats. Period.

To my mind, his argument is undercut, though, when conservative Democrats are seen to only help other conservative Democrats and not progressives. Progressives like Ted and Jamie are raising millions of dollars for Blue Dogs and New Dems-- as well as for progressives-- but Blue Dogs and New Dems? Let's go take a look at one of the most-- if not the most-- crucial congressional race anywhere in America: Omaha, Nebraska.

NE-02-- Omaha and the rest of Douglas County plus most of red-leaning, rural Sarpy County-- is a swing district that elects one member of Congress, just like every other district. However, NE-02, also awards an electoral vote to a presidential candidate (as does another swing district, ME-02). That's why the district is so incredibly important. Kara Eastman, a community activist and organizer, won a tough primary against an establishment candidate married to a former congressman, Blue Dog, Brad Ashford, who was beaten in 2018 by Eastman in a bitter primary. In part because of the tireless and effective organizing on behalf of Democrats up and down the ticket, both she and Biden, who is not making any efforts in Nebraska, are leading in the district. Kara is delivering him an electoral college vote.

On Wednesday evening, she beat the Trump-enabling incumbent, Don Bacon, in a debate. Moments before the debate-- in a coordinated effort by the Bacon campaign-- party-jumper Ashford-- who had already endorsed Kara-- switched his endorsement to the Republican.

That's what Blue Dogs do. I wouldn't expect Cheri Bustos, DCCC Chair and a Blue Dog herself, to care, but I would hope Ted and Jamie would take that into consideration when they help elect Blue Dog candidates. There are several Republicans running as Democrats this cycle-- just as Ashford had-- and all are possible party-jumpers like Jeff Van Drew, a New Jersey ultra-conservative who flipped into Trumpism and officially joined the GOP after voting with them for a year.

When Ashford was in Congress, he was generally considered one of the 2 or 3 most right-wing Democrats in the House and was always looking for opportunities to stab the Democrats in the back, just the way he did to Kara on Wednesday night.

Ashford first won the seat in 2014, narrowly beating GOP incumbent Terry Lee, even though he only raised $1,231,958 to Lee's $3,106,288. How did he manage that? The DCCC and Pelosi's House Majority PAC spent a little over $1.5 million slamming Lee and bolstering Ashford. One term of the conservative Ashford was more than enough for Omaha Democrats, who refused to back him again. That's when he lost to Bacon, even though he spent a million dollars more than Bacon and even though the DCCC spent $2,688,673 on his behalf, while Pelosi's SuperPAC threw in another $741,041. So... almost $3.5 million wasted trying to save the seat of a pretend-Democrat who voted with the GOP and who was hated by his own constituents! That's the DCCC!

The following year, Ashford wanted to try again, but despite backing from the DCCC, Democratic voters weren't having anything to do with him and Kara defeated him in the primary-- at which point the DCCC basically pulled out of the race and signaled to the Republicans that the district was all their's. The GOP spent a massive $1.3 million smearing Kara and another $700,000 advertising how amazingly wonderful Bacon was. The DCCC spent a ritual $90,000 on Kara before telling donors and the media that she couldn't win. And by the way, you can contribute to Kara's campaign by clicking on the thermometer on the right. Bacon defeated Kara by less than 1 percentage point despite his mammoth financial edge.

This cycle, Ashford sent his wife in to run in his place. Kara beat her in a humiliating two to one landslide. She has kept up with Bacon on spending so far-- having spent $1,132,014 to his $1,239,832. But he has twice what she does in the bank for the final push and the GOP has spent $1,958,987 on ads calling her a communist and another $1,216,895 boosting Bacon. The DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC have spent $1.2 million helping Kara, much less than they've spent on right-wing Blue Dogs and corporately owned New Dems. One of the most far right Democrats in the House-- hated by his normal Democratic colleagues, many of whom hope he loses-- is Anthony Brindisi, who votes with the GOP as much as Ashford used to. The DCCC has spent $2,025,213 on his race. Pelosi's SuperPAC threw in another $632,150 and the Blue Dog PAC kicked in $473,272. Or compare the $1.2 million the DCCC and Pelosi have spent on Kara to the $2,736,430 the DCCC alone had spent on conservative New Dem candidate Carolyn Bourdeaux so far.

Triumph In November Means Winning Primaries Now

It's relatively easy to point out that you don't agree with the person in power and declare your candidacy and hope more voters turn out on election day who agree with you than with the incumbent. But that is rarely the way people get into Congress. It's especially difficult winning a primary against your own party's establishment, something a reformer almost never accomplishes in one cycle. Take Ro Khanna, Donna Edwards, Alan Grayson. None of their first runs resulted in victories.

But those three had something else in common. They're all very smart and they all worked like their lives depended on winning. And when they didn't, they kept on running... and won the next time. In March we saw the same scenario play out in Illinois where progressive champion Marie Newman vanquished-- on the second effort-- DCCC-backed Blue Dog Dan Lipinski.

Lipinski spent $7,701,137 to Marie's $1,968,537.Outside groups like the right-of-Center Trump-friendly No Labels, the Blue Dog PAC (Center Forward), Republican-oriented unions like the Pipe Fitters and Plumbers and the preeminent GOP anti-choice group spent another quarter of a million dollars bolstering Lipinski and smearing Marie but Round 2 saw her take out the established-backed 7 term congressman, 49,098 (47.3%) to 46,315 (44.6%). It was a tribute to Marie's persistent hard work to build her name recognition and her ability to organize a grassroots movement around a compelling platform of progressive issues.

Last Tuesday, we saw something very similar in Omaha, Nebraska, where the progressive candidate, Kara Eastman and her grassroots army beat the DCCC-preferred "ex"-Republican, Ann Ashcroft, the wife of Blue Dog former Congressman Brad Ashcroft. This one wasn't even close. In a 3-way race Kara triumphed, 40,456 (61.8%) to 20,656 (31.6%).

After her win on Tuesday, Kara issued this statement:

"Blue America invested in my race when no one thought I had a chance. It was transformative. The grassroots support turned my race around in 2018 and I am proud to partner with them towards a win in 2020. Together, we can fight for and win on issues like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal."

That's you she's talking about. 1,182 of us contributed $21,393.74 through Blue America, an average of just under $20. And now comes the hard part, defeating serial Trump enabler Donald J. Bacon in the ultimate swing district. Last time, Bacon edged Kara by just 2 points-- 126,715 to 121,770. In 2018, Bacon and Kara each spent $2.5 million, but while the NRCC and Paul Ryan's SuperPAC spent a million and a half dollars helping Bacon, the DCCC and Pelosi only begrudgingly kicked in $90,000 for Kara. This year Kara is working hard to unify the Democratic party around her campaign. And her district-- unlike almost any other in the country, awards an electoral vote to the presidential winner, making it crucial in the battle to unseat Trump.

"When I first decided to run," Kara told us yesterday, "I committed my campaign to the cause of de-linking employment and health coverage, and became a supporter of Medicare for All. I endorse Rep. Jayapal's HR 1384 because it's the best way to ensure that every person is covered. The fact is that our current trajectory of poor outcomes and high costs is not sustainable, so we need to move in a new direction."

Please join Blue America in making sure Kara has the resources to make Round 2 the victory for her that it was for Ro, Donna and Alan. Consider clicking on the 2020 congressional thermometer on the right to contribute what you feel comfortable giving. When you're making up your mind, don't think of what we';re saying, think of what Kara Eastman said to us: "I believe that climate chaos is the most significant moral issue of our time. We can no longer kick the can of environmental unsustainability down the road. I believe the Green New Deal is an important step towards addressing this issue." So do we and. Let's bring this one home.

And in case you're feeling flush, there are 7 other candidates on that page who are fighting their second congressional battles:

• J.D. Scholten vs Steve King in Iowa
• Mike Siegel vs Michael McCaul and Julie Oliver vs Roger Williams in Texas
• Audrey Denney vs Doug LaMalfa in California
• Kathy Ellis vs Jason Smith in Missouri
• Tom Guild vs Kendra Horn in Oklahoma
• Lisa Ring vs Buddy Carter in Georgia

Iowa progressive J.D. Scholten noted this morning that "This unprecedented health and economic crisis shows us just how broken our country really is. Millions of Americans are unemployed and struggling to access or afford health care, food to put on the table, housing, work protections, and more. And yet, the response from Congress and the Administration has been too little, too late, and too focused on their wealthy donors, proving how disconnected they are from reality. That’s why we must fight for a government that looks like us and understands our experiences. We need to elect a government with economic, religious, identity, and gender diversity-- instead of one that caters to the corporate, wealthy class."

DCCC Lost All The Races Yesterday-- But Progressives Did Well

DCCC chair Cheri Bustos should resign

Last night 3 important congressional races ended. Nancy Pelosi, Cheri Bustos and their DCCC need to think closely about what happened. One contest was a primary in Omaha and two were special elections to fill seats in Wisconsin and California where members had retired, respectively one Republican and one Democrat. In each special election, the victor will fill the seat until January, at which point the winner of the regular November election will take the seat.

Let's start, though, with the primary in Nebraska. Kara Eastman, a community activist and outspoken progressive, beat Ann Ashford the wife of the former (defeated) Blue Dog congressman, Brad Ashford, in a two-to-one landslide. The DCCC was less overt in their support for Ann Ashford than they had been in their over-the-top backing for Brad in the 2018 primary. In 2018, Kara beat Brad Ashford 21,357 (51.6%) to 19,998 (48.4%). The DCCC was so incensed that Kara beat their pet Blue Dog that they removed NE-02 from their priority list and refused to help Kara win. She only lost by a 2 point margin against GOP incumbent Don Bacon-- 126,715 (51.0%) to 121,770 (49.0%). Let's not allow that to happen again this coming November. Please write to Cheri Bustos and Nancy Pelosi and demand they support Kara Eastman this cycle-- and contribute to her here or by click on the 2020 congressional thermometer on the right.

Yesterday's primary showed Kara with a great deal or-- and much more-- support, despite the Ashfords pouring over $350,000 of their own money into her campaign.

The Omaha World-Herald reported that Kara "earned her chance for a rematch against the two-term Republican incumbent Tuesday night by topping two other rivals in her party’s primary. She immediately took aim at Bacon, saying his record of reliable votes for President Donald Trump and his party don’t fit in a swing district like the Omaha-area 2nd. 'People are looking for leadership and for representation that actually represents the district, and not just somebody who’s going to align himself with his party,' Eastman said."

Two years after a fired-up base of progressives helped upstart Eastman upset former congressman Brad Ashford in the Democratic primary, she easily outpolled his wife, Ann Ashford, and Omaha restaurateur Gladys Harrison in Tuesday’s vote.

That gave her a second chance against Bacon, who beat her by just fewer than 5,000 votes-- about 2% of all cast-- in the 2018 general election. She said she thinks it will be a different race this time.

“It’s already very different in the direction this country has moved,” she said.

...A centrist former Republican, Ashford echoed Bacon from two years earlier in arguing that Eastman’s policies are too extreme for most voters in a district that includes Douglas County and western Sarpy County.

The key example both Ashford and Bacon cite is Eastman’s support for “Medicare for All,” the single-player, universal health care system that would do away with private health insurance.

But the 48-year-old Eastman hasn’t backed down from her support for the health care plan championed by liberal firebrand Bernie Sanders, noting the coronavirus pandemic has exposed the pitfalls of a system that mostly relies on people getting their health insurance through their employer.

Eastman offered herself as “an authentic Democrat.” And much like two years ago, she benefited from an army of grassroots progressive volunteers, who shifted this spring from going door to door to making thousands of calls from phone banks.

...Eastman and Bacon now enter a fall campaign that will likely be heavily influenced by the top-of-ticket battle between Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden. While the two congressional candidates competed two years ago, the presidential race is sure to change the dynamics.

Bacon on Tuesday night said he wished the president were at times more diplomatic. But on issues from abortion to taxes to trade, he said, the president’s positions align well with the district.

“I want that conservative philosophy in the White House,” he said.

Bacon also believes Trump’s supporters will be highly motivated in November. The Republican wave that Trump created in 2016 helped Bacon to his 1-point victory over then-incumbent Brad Ashford.

...But Democrats are heavily motivated to oust Trump, which could drive Democratic turnout in the swing district. And this time Eastman will have the support of the national Democratic establishment, which failed to jump in with both feet to help her when she lost narrowly two years ago.

In charging she is too extreme, Eastman said, Bacon is just “following the Republican playbook” in a race he knows he’s in danger of losing.

“He’ll say that I’m too extreme when he has voted 95% of the time with Donald Trump, and even signed a pledge to not disagree with the president, which is crazy,” Eastman said. “He is the definition of extreme.”

No one expected the Wisconsin special election to switch the 7th district from red to blue. The PVI is R+8 and when Sean Duffy was reelected in 2018 against Democrat Margaret Engebretson, it was a 60.1% to 38.5% wipeout, Duffy winning 23 of the 26 counties, including the 3 big ones, Marathon, St. Croix and Oneida. Although Obama won the district in 2008, he lost to Romney in 2012 and Trump beat Hillary decisively-- 57.7% to 37.3%.

Last night Tom Tiffany was an easy winner over Democrat Tricia Zunker, 109,592 (57.22%) to 81,928 (42.78%). Zunker, president of the Wausau School Board and an associate justice for the Ho-Chunk Nation Supreme Court, did better than either Margaret Engebretson did in 2018 or then Hillary had done in 2016. But not better enough. They will face off again in November. Zunker addressed her supporters last night on Facebook Live, noting that "we laid the groundwork for a Democratic win in November. This isn’t the result we were hoping for, but we did something incredible here. We did something that no one thought a Democrat in this district could do, in spite of a global pandemic. We did something incredible despite the fact that legislators refused to switch to mail-in voting to protect the health and safety of Wisconsinites." Tiffany outraised her by over a million dollars. Their debates were about issues like abortion and gun control.

The other special election-- in CA-25 (Santa Clarita Valley, Antelope Valley and Simi Valley-- was more of a contest. Although the district has a Democratic registration advantage, Republican Mike Garcia, a Trump loyalist, beat Christy Smith, a centrist Democrat. As of this month, the voter registration numbers were very much favorable to the Democrats:

• Democrats- 161,693 (38.41%)
• Republicans- 133,771 (31.78%)
• No party preference- 98,717 (23.45%)

Although Christy Smith was offering nothing but another centrist nothing-- with lots of meaningless partisan endorsements and a meaningless platform-- I predicted she would win anyway, albeit narrowly (and she well may in November). At the time, I noted that her only chance to win would be to reach out to the 6.5% of primary voters who had cast primary ballots for progressive Cenk Uygur and consolidate the Democratic vote. She chose to reach out to Republicans instead and ignore progressives. That proved our "Anonymous Strategist" correct this past Sunday when he predicted she would lose, unable to inspire Democrats to vote.

This morning I reached out to Cenk and asked him why he thought she lost. He was kind:

Republicans vote more. It was a low turnout election and they almost always win those. Probably any Democratic candidate would have lost but the Democratic Party's insistence on picking the least dynamic or populist candidate doesn't help. Mike Garcia was more populist than Steve Knight and the whole Republican Party supported him and helped him win the primary. On the Democratic side, the party despises populism so they all went in very aggressively for the establishment candidate. In primaries, especially very short ones like this, party endorsements make a huge difference and the establishment rules the day. In general elections, undecided voters have the opposite motivation-- they don't like the establishment.

  The Republican Party gives their candidates the trappings of outsiders and the Democratic Party gives their candidates the appearance of being insiders. Independent voters don't like insiders. They're independents-- by definition they're outsiders. It also doesn't help that the Democratic Party leaders are lions against progressives in primaries and lambs against Republicans in the general. How much more vitriolic were they against me than Mike Garcia? If they fought him half as hard as they fought me, they might have had a chance.

This is what happens when the Democratic Party establishment backs candidates with nothing to offer but someone they imagine is the lesser of two evils. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. This time didn't. This one wasn't even close:

Trump To Campaign For Congressional Republicans? Kara Eastman Says "Bring It On!"

Hole-in-One by Nancy Ohanian

During the 2016 election, a putative Democrat from the South Bronx, Rubén Díaz, Sr., backed Ted Cruz for president and invited him to speak in his district. It didn't do Cruz much good. In the Republican primary, Cruz came in third-- with just 1,022 votes, in New York's bluest county. Trump won the county in the primary with 2,702 votes but in the general election, Hillary eviscerated him 318,403 (88.7%) to 34,424 (9.6%). Today, still running as a Democrat (or some kind of Democrat), Díaz Sr. is trying to sneak into the NY-15 congressional district from which progressive icon Jose Serrano is retiring.

NY-15 doesn't have many white conservatives. In fact, only 2.5% of the district's population is white. And when Republicans run there, it's usually just a vanity run or a publicity stunt. NY-15 is the bluest district in America. Obama won it with 95% the first time he ran and with 97% the second time. In 2016, Trump performance in the district was just 4.9%-- his worst results in the Bronx, in New York City, in New York State and in the U.S.A. This cycle, though, conservatives might get lucky. One of their own, Díaz Sr., is running for the open congressional seat... and running as a Democrat.

A a 77-year-old, cowboy hat-wearing Pentecostal minister known for his constituent services and ugly controversial statements on social issues, Díaz Sr. has a clear path to victory-- a split among a dozen progressive and mainstream candidates that could actually leave the crackpot with a primary win. Díaz was the only Democrat in the state Senate to vote against a bill legalizing same-sex marriage in 2011. He is vehemently anti-Choice and against stem-cell research. And last year he told New Yorkers that the City Council is "controlled by the homosexual community," which led to him being stripped of his chairmanship of the For-Hire Vehicle committee. City Council Speaker Corey Johnson told him to resign.

The best way of beating Díaz is for progressives and normal Democrats to get behind Tomas Ramos... but that isn't going to happen, especially not with political careerists like Ritchie Torres and Michael Blake. But there's another way to beat Díaz, Sr.-- and Ramos told us about it today. An Alayna Treene post at Axios over the weekend pointed out that "In the lead-up to the 2018 midterm elections-- buoyed by Republican control of both chambers-- President Trump viewed campaigning for the House as a lower-tier priority and instead poured his energy into rallying for the Senate. But after the GOP reckoning in 2018, and experiencing firsthand how damaging a Democratic-led House has been to him, Trump is now personally invested in helping Republicans regain the majority in November. If Trump wins re-election and Republicans are able to hold the Senate and take back the House, Trump will essentially have free rein to do whatever he wants in his second term." Tomas Ramos, like many Democrats running for Congress, hopes Trump will come to his district to campaign.

It isn't likely to happen, but a Trump-Díaz rally would be an immense GOTV moment for real Democrats in the Bronx. "This," Ramos told me, "would give my campaign a huge boost. My district consists of 98% people of color from all over the world. It would expose Rubén Díaz, Sr. for what he really is, a conservative Republican who has been running as a Democrat in the most Democratic congressional district in the country. Remember, this is the same guy who brought Ted Cruz to the Bronx in 2016."

Omaha, Nebraska is very different from the Bronx and the congressional district there, NE-02, is a quintessential swing district. It went for Obama in 2008 and for Romney in 2012. Last cycle, Hillary lost NE-02 by less than 2 points. But Trump is incredibly unpopular there now. In 2018, progressive Kara Eastman won Douglas County (Omaha convincingly). Like Tomas, she would love to see Trump come to Omaha to campaign with his Nebraska-clone, Don Bacon. "If Trump wants to come to my district-- where polls show him under water by 14 points-- to campaign for Bacon," she told me, "I say bring it on!"

Liam O'Mara is less certain what a Trump visit to Riverside County to bolster endangered Republican Ken Calvert would mean. "Trump being here could energize Calvert's base and mine. Trump won the 42nd by 12 points," Liam continued, "But remember, he was running as a populist and talking about the working class. Yes, the district has a conservative history, but many of its independent voters have a populist streak. And Republicans make up only 38% of the electorate, and falling. The answer to a right-populist is a left-populist who knows how to frame the issues well." O'Mara thinks that if Calvert campaigned in the district with Trump, he could win with a campaign stop by Bernie. "Standing with him would do the most good... and his popularity in the district is growing. His appeal crosses party lines and scoops up the independent populists more easily than Trump. It is worth remembering that about 12% of Bernie's 2016 primary voters went for Trump in the general. These are swing voters that we can only win with the right kind of candidate."

Tom Winter is the progressive Democrat likely to take on Matt Rosendale for the open at-large Montana House seat. He reminded me that in 2018 Trump was in Montana four times campaigning for Rosendale when he was running against Democrat Jon Tester. "One of these campaign rallies was in a state legislative district Trump had won by 11 points the previous election and the one I was running in to replace an incumbent Republican that was seated right behind him as he spoke. While that local GOP lawmaker was enjoying his VIP tickets to that rally, I knocked dozens and dozens of doors that day right across the street. I talked with my neighbors about how politics was failing the working families of Montana. I laid out my progressive policy agenda that I felt would make it more affordable for all of us to live in the place we love. With loud cheers in the background as the president complimented our incumbent Congressman, Greg Gianforte, for body slamming a reporter that had asked him a tough question, I spoke with my neighbors about the need to restore civility in our politics. Gianforte, Rosendale, and that local legislator all laughed as the president praised the assault on journalists, 'Any guy who can do a body slam is my kind of guy.' They laughed and Jon Tester and I won. We won because we had not lost faith in Montanans and laid out our cases for how we would fight for them, each in our own way. Our good Senator won that year by his largest margin ever in his three statewide election victories. So, as I run to replace that body slamming Congressman I welcome the president to stop by our great state for as many times as he'd like. He can find me speaking with my future constituents."





Other districts where Trump visits would likely kill GOP chances include seats currently held by John Katko, Peter King, and Lee Zeldin in New York; Fred Upton in Michigan; And Barr in Kentucky; Jaime Herrera Beutler and Cathy McMorris Rodgers in Washington; Chris Smith in New Jersey; Ann Wagner in Missouri; Brian Fitzpatrick and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania; Denver Riggleman and Rob Wittman in Virginia; Rodney Davis and Mike Bost in Illinois; Bryan Steil in Wisconsin; Pete Stauber and Jim Hagedorn in Minnesota; Devin Nunes and Tom McClintock in California; Mario Diaz-Balart, Ross Spano, Brian Mast and Vern Buchanan in Florida; Dan Crenshaw, Michael McCaul, John Carter, Chip Roy and Roger Williams in Texas; and Steve Chabot, David Joyce and Mike Turner in Ohio.

Yes, "OUR" Billionaires Are Bums Too-- Democratic Candidates Should Do What Kara Eastman Is Doing

"The fight happening now for the Democratic presidential nomination," wrote Norman Solomon, "largely amounts to class warfare. And the forces that have triumphed in the past are outraged that they currently have to deal with progressive opposition from not one but two candidates... The billionaire class is worried. For the first time in memory, there’s a real chance that the next president could threaten the very existence of billionaires-- or at least significantly reduce their unconscionable rate of wealth accumulation-- in a country and on a planet with so much human misery due to extreme economic disparities." Even before anti-progressive radical Mike Bloomberg jumped into the presidential race Friday, Tom Steyer's campaign was exposed for trying to bribe office holders-- so far only former office holders have been exposed for accepting-- into endorsing his failing campaign. Steyer, who made his billions as a hedge fund manager, has written himself a series of checks to the tune of $47,597,697. He's spent more than any other candidate so far, including Trump. But it hasn't done him that much good. His RealClearPolitics polling average is 0.9%, tucked between Tulsi (1.6%) and Michael Bennet (0.5%). The most recent poll-- from YouGov for The Economist shows he's the first choice of 1% of Democratic primary voters and also the second choice of 1% of Democratic primary voters.

The Morning Consult poll for Politico that came out this morning, shows Bloomberg entering the presidential primary sweepstakes with 4% support, behind Status Quo Joe (31%), Bernie (20%), Elizabeth (18%), Mayo Pete (8%) and Kamala (6%). He's already leading Andrew Yang (3%), Cory Booker (2%), Amy Klobuchar (2%) and everyone else, each of whom is polling at between 0 and 1%. Meanwhile, 31% of Democratic primary voters have a positive impression of Bloomberg and 25%, the highest of any Democrat running, have an unfavorable impression. In a hypothetical matchup against Trump, he's right up there with the real candidates (Steyer, the billionaire version of mere multimillionaire John Delaney, is nowhere to be seen):

On Friday, just as Bloomberg, was announcing his campaign against Bernie and Elizabeth in, of all places, Alabama, Kara Eastman announced she is giving away a max campaign donation she received last year from Steyer. In a statement, Kara said that after reading the news about Steyer's endorsement buying shenanigans in Iowa, "I immediately saw this as an example of the problem of money in politics, an issue that I have campaigned on since the beginning."

Kara isn't exactly rolling in the dough. She's working class candidate from a working class candidate and Steyer's $2,700 contribution is financially meaningful. "While this was well in advance of his declared presidential campaign and was not given to us in exchange for any endorsement, my campaign-- like all campaigns should be-- is founded on transparency and integrity. I am therefore announcing that I will contribute this money to a nonprofit in this district that provides services for Latinx immigrant workers... Last month, when the Omaha World Herald discovered from an anonymous tipster that my opponent, Rep. Don Bacon, had taken several thousand dollars by indicted Giuliani associate Igor Furman, it was only after that these corrupt dollars were exposed that Bacon promised to donate the money to charity. Although, to be honest, he never specified a charity, only that the money would go to the cause of human trafficking. Anyway, I have felt that my campaign needs to be different, to be pro-active."

Please consider helping Kara making up the hole by contributing to her campaign. Click on the 2020 Blue America congressional thermometer on the right and do what you can. Kara's opponent is Nebraska Trump enabler, Donald J. Bacon, a toxic conservative Republican. Kara is running on a platform that includes Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, racial and social justice, gun safety, comprehensive immigration reform, debt-free college and other policies that help working families, all issues on which Bacon stands in opposition. She noted in her platform that "The World Bank puts our income inequality on par with some of the poorest and unequal nations in the world. This is dangerous for our economy and damaging to our collective sense of morality. The GOP Tax Plan was a clear hand-out to the very wealthy and large corporations that simply do not need welfare. It was shown to have raised taxes on the middle class and exempted those who can afford to pay their fair share-- this is not fiscal responsibility. We need to ensure that all Americans have a livable wage, are not drowning in student loans and healthcare costs, have healthy, affordable housing, and have a way to care for their children while they go to work. We also need to regulate banks and Wall Street and tax financial transactions to help pay down our debt."

Nate McMurray, like Kara, is running for a second time this cycle. The Republicans are fighting among themselves to see who will run against Nate now that Trumpist Rep. Chris Collins has plead guilty to fraud and resigned from Congress. Raising money for working class candidates like Nate is never easy, compared to business-backed conservatives. "It’s a challenge," he told us today. "The number one way you are evaluated as a candidate is your ability to raise money. We can have 300 people at an event and raise $5,000. The scary thing is that others can have 3 people at an event and raise $5 million. Nonetheless, we have chosen the path of most resistance. We have done everything in our power to resist dark money and money from those who want something in return... No billionaire money in our campaign."

As Trump Becomes Increasingly Toxic Among Independent Voters, GOP Incumbents Will Feel The Pressure To Separate Themselves From Trump

Mark Amodei (R-NV) desperately wants to change the backdrop

Lately, Eli Stokols has been doing some excellent reporting for the virtually moribund L.A. Times. I hope it's enough to save the paper from oblivion. It looks like nothing will save the GOP from oblivion, though-- at least not in the short term. In his latest, Stokol, noted that "Although Republican support in Congress appears solid, that firewall could falter if damaging new revelations emerge or if lawmakers find public support crumbling back in their districts. Congress went on recess Friday for two weeks and some lawmakers planned to hold town halls to gauge constituents’ views on impeachment." Republicans whose districts have large independent voting blocs will find it hard to stick with Trump. House members where Republicans can't win without significant support from independent voters are already under increasing pressure. A few examples of incumbents who have decided to run for reelection but who could easily be dragged down by Trump:

• John Katko (NY)
• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)
• Don Bacon (NE)
• Rodney Davis (IL)
• Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA)
• Steve Chabot (OH)
• Fred Upton (MI)
• Michael Turner (OH)
• Mark Amodei (NV)
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA)
• Michael McCaul (TX)
• Scott Perry (PA)
• Dan Crenshaw (TX)
• Chip Roy (TX)
• Ann Wagner (MO)
• Bryan Steil (WI)
• Peter King (NY)
• Ross Spano (FL)
• George Holding (NC)
• Troy Balderson (OH)
• Jim Hegedorn (MN)
• Brian Mast (FL)
• Denver Riggleman (VA)
• Ted Budd (NC)
• John Carter (TX)
• Ron Wittman (VA)
• David Joyce (OH)
• Vern Buchanan (FL)
• Elise Stefanik (NY)
• Chris Smith (NJ)
• Lee Zeldin (NY)

That's 32 districts held by Republicans-- and not counting districts where incumbents have already announced that they're bailing-- where there are too many independent voters for Republicans to win if the revelations about Trump's criminal and treasonous activities stay in the headlines and on TV and radio. The Mooch explained to Stokols why it will continue to fester: "The superficial support for this guy is wearing thin." Let me give you a good example of what's happening outside of DC. A recent poll in NE-02-- Omaha and surrounding communities-- puts progressive challenger Kara Eastman up against Trump Republican Don Bacon and it shows the extent to which Trump's standing is hurting Trump enablers among independents. Donald J. Trump is underwater in NE-02 46-53%, and Donald J. Bacon is losing to Kara among independents 45-53%. Neither a Democrat nor a Republican is ever going to win this district without independent support; that's just the way it is.

And a top Capitol staffer for a Republican senator told Stokol that "At this point, [Trump] could be caught walking out of a Federal Reserve bank with two giant sacks of money in his hands and no Republican would vote to impeach him for grand larceny. Our voters want two things from their congressmen: [dumping] on the media and blindly defending the president. That’s what being a Republican has come to." And that's the kind of thing independent voters absolutely detest and why the GOP is going to suffer massive losses in Congress next year.

Already one conservative Republican member, Mark Amodei, who represents Reno, Carson City and the Tahoe area-- where Democrats and independents from Northern California have been flocking-- has gone on the record as favoring an official impeachment hearing. He's the first, and so far only, Republican to do so-- and he's the last federal Republican elected official in Nevada. His district's R+7 PVI is completely out of date. Trump beat Hillary there but Trump only garnered 52.0%. Washoe County is where almost all Amodei's voters live. Last year, in the Senate race, a less-than-mediocre, completely worthless Democrat, Jacky Rosen, ousted Republican incumbent Dean Heller and won Washoe County 49.8% to 46.2%. Democrat Steve Sisolak beat better-known Republican Adam Laxalt for the governorship by winning Washoe 48.7% to 46.4% and although Amodei himself won Washoe, the county only performed as an R+2 for him. A couple of points slippage and he's toast. Last year his Democratic opponent, Clint Koble, didn't get as much as a nod or a nickel from the DCCC and raised only $152,389 compared to Amodei's $1,207,363. Koble is running again this cycle and his overly cautious approach is unlikely to help him oust Amodei... something only Trump could do. But Amodei is quite aware that it actually is something Trump could do.

Montana state Rep. Tom Winter ran and won a race in the western part of his state, right up against Idaho, that voted 11 points for Trump. Nearly half of the voters there identify as Independent. "When you actually talk to the people that are suspicious of both parties they’re clearly unhappy with what’s been going on these last three years," Tom, who's running for Congress, told us today. "Folks have been dealing with the effects of our broken politics for quite some time. They thought they were voting to shake up a system that wasn’t working for them. Now they just want to be able to wake up and not see the world on fire. And it wouldn’t hurt to tell them how you’re going to lower their healthcare costs too."

Can You Imagine Being Endorsed By Dracula? Mussolini? Jack The Ripper? How About Steve King?

Every Democrat running for Congress against an incumbent Republican is hoping to find a video like this one of white supremacist Steve King endorsing his pal Donald J. Bacon. I hope Kara, the progressive Democrat running for the Omaha-based congressional district currently occupied by Bacon can make good use of it. This particular tape was mae in 2016 and shows King, the ardent white supremacist and rape-and-incest booster proudly endorsing Bacon. The two have been fast allies ever since, almost always voting in tandem. They both vehemently oppose a woman's right to Choice. They both vehemently oppose the Green New Deal, Medicare (let alone Medicare-For-All). They both oppose David Cicilline's bill to ban the sales of military assault weapons and cop-killer bullets to civilians. They're both against raising the minimum wage; in fact neither thinks there should even be a minimum wage! "When I look into his eyes," said King, "I see someone who I want to represent Nebraskans and Iowans."

Sickening-- and so was Bacon's response: "Congressman King's endorsement is a tremendous honor. I have great admiration for the Congressman for his strong moral courage and his deep devotion to serving our nation." OMG! "Strong moral courage and his deep devotion," a description of a virulent racist and neo-Nazi who the Republican Party kicked off his committees and left adrift in no position to impact any legislation. This is the kind of crud Bacon feels "tremendous honor" to be endorsed by? What the hell is wrong with Don Bacon? Even Dick Cheney's daughter, Liz Cheney, a far right congresswoman from Wyoming and a member of the GOP House leadership team and demanded that King resign.

Meanwhile, despite King's multiple offensive statements, including his overt support of white nationalism and his recent comments on rape and incest, Bacon has resisted repeated calls to censure his friend or in any way distance himself from the Iowa 4th representative.

I asked Kara Eastman what she thinks about the man purporting to represent her district and her neighbors. "I am standing with Nebraskans who are disgusted by Congressman Steve King 's hateful words," she told me. "Congressman Don Bacon continues to enable this behavior by siting back, accepting his endorsement and once again, refusing to stand up for our Nebraska values." If you'd like to make sure Kara replaces Bacon and J.D. Scholten replaces Steve King, please click on the Blue America 2020 congressional thermometer on the right and contribute what you can to their campaigns. And by the way, minutes ago J.D.-- the populist, progressive Iowan preparing to banish King from Congress once and for all, told me that "What we’re seeing right now is that Steve King is becoming more and more toxic. It’s important to see if the rest of the GOP are going to continue to be silent or are they going to call King out."

My Experience at the Border-- Guest Post by Kara Eastman

For the past couple of years, my half-brother, an interpreter for the federal criminal court system in Las Cruces, New Mexico, has been telling me about devastating policy and procedural changes around immigration. Prior to the election of our current president, he had not seen children separated from their parents and guardians at the border. He had not seen so many people seeking asylum in the U.S. denied. And he had not seen so many people jailed for 30, 40, 50 days to then be returned to their countries of origin.

I decided to go to three cities that straddle the U.S.-Mexico frontier to see what the media, elected officials, and humanitarian groups have been describing. I also am disappointed that I have not heard about any member of the Nebraska delegation visiting the border. I believe that candidates for federal office should demonstrate how they will act as members of Congress, and I needed to see for myself what is happening in places like El Paso and New Mexico. I strongly feel an obligation to properly inform people in my district as I run for the House of Representatives in Nebraska’s second district. Finally, I really wanted to see my brother in action at work.

Our trip included a visit to a shelter and a nonprofit organization in El Paso, and a shelter in Ciudad Juárez (Mexico). After our shelter visit in El Paso, we walked across to Mexico for our next meeting. Getting there took a few minutes, but walking back across the border took over an hour because of our lack of proper infrastructure. There were a number of checkpoint lanes that had been closed, and the single file line to get back into the U.S. was very long.

As a result of Trump’s policies, there are many fewer people working at the ports of entry. The long lines are intended to be a deterrent for people getting across illegally. But the actual consequence is that hardships have been created for people that cross legally. A woman who works for the nonprofit told me her commute is now TWO HOURS each way as she works in El Paso but lives in Juárez.

In El Paso, I met a Mexican woman who is the spouse of a deceased American citizen. She has to come to the U.S. for a month each year to collect her spouse’s earned income benefits. However, European citizens who have deceased American spouses can have their checks mailed to them. This was both shocking and dismaying. Imagine the hardship of having to leave a home, bring a child to the U.S., live in a shelter, and then return home, only to do it again the next year.

The shelter we visited in Juárez is currently home to 680 men, women, and children. They are all awaiting either asylum or immigration hearings. The shelter is over capacity, lacks enough food, and does not have the proper refrigeration to store the donated food they receive.

I have run 2 homeless shelters throughout my career and never have I had to grapple with not having enough food for clients. In addition, the idea that the shelter residents were waiting in vain, thinking they may be granted permission to come to the U.S. legally, when the reality is they will not be, was heartbreaking.

On the second day of my trip, I went to work with my brother in Las Cruces to watch criminal court hearings. I was told that the day before, they had processed 98 people. I was there on a Tuesday, which is typically less busy, and I watched about 50 people have their hearings. My brother told me that the average cost for a person to be sent back to their country of origin (from arrest to final deportation) is about $10K per person. He also told me that it used to be people would spend very little time in jail if they were arrested under Section 1325 of the law. I watched as both men and women, ranging from ages 18 to 65, after spending 40 and 50 days in jail, were being sent back to their countries. I watched the conveyor belt of deportations and listened to the stories of people coming here fleeing violence, looking for work, or trying to see their families. I made a point to look at each one individually, people sitting in the courtroom shackled and handcuffed, waiting to hear that the U.S. does not welcome them no matter what their circumstance is.

I returned from my trip with a heavy heart and with a list. There are solutions to fixing our broken immigration system, but they are not coming from our current policy-makers. Residents of El Paso love their neighbors in Juárez; they love their binational city. Policy-makers who have not talked to people in border cities should not be making policies for our country, because they simply do not understand what our actual needs are. The President is deceiving people when he talks about crime in El Paso--it is one of the safest cities in the country (despite the horrific recent tragedy).

We need to fix the system; we need more ports of entry and more jobs created for people to work at the border. We need a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients and the TPS community. We hear a lot about expanding the guest worker program for “skilled labor” when we also need ways for people to work in the U.S. to perform essential labor (picking crops, working at meat packing plants, etc.).

We should view the border between the U.S. and Mexico the way we once looked at Ellis Island. Our country needs immigrants in order for us to thrive. We also should stop the denigration of the hard-working border officials who ensure our border is secure. I heard from some who said they signed up to protect our country, not to turn people away who are desperately seeking help, and certainly not to separate children from their parents. Our country will be safer when we fix the system that is too expensive, too ineffective, and too immoral.

Don Bacon Protects The Military? Only When Trump And Republican Party Bosses Say It's OK

Earlier we looked at how the "bipartisan" For Country Caucus and their associated With Honor PAC has targeted Katie Hill for obliteration, Chairman Don Bacon acceding to a request from the NRCC, which is strictly against the caucus rules. The Democratic co-chair, Jimmy Panetta, wasn't quite sharp enough to catch it and spends his time lying to the media about the non-relationship between the PAC and caucus (each of which links immediately to the other). Point though, isn't about Panetta; we'll get to him soon enough, but about Don Bacon a thorough Trump enabler who tries presenting himself as an above the fray general, while disgracing his former service. (His Trump adhesion score is 95.6%... He drank the koolaide-- and asked for more.)

When Bacon was a general, he was in charge of Offut Airforce Base, close enough to Omaha so that many of his constituents work there. The base was severely damaged in the severe Nebraska flooding in May. Recently, the Omaha World-Herald, which endorsed his reelection bid last year, called Bacon out on his hypocrisy over the bill to save the damaged base. It was natural for Bacon to vote for it committee. But then he got pushback from Republican leadership which wanted it to fail. So, sure enough, in the final vote, Bacon-- like all the other lock-step Republicans-- voted no.

The World-Herald reported that "Bacon was one of only two Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee to support the measure when the panel approved it, declaring it imperfect but good enough to advance." Eventually Bacon whined that the bill had gone too far to the left-- by, for example, including "a prohibition on attacking Iran without congressional approval," basically reiterating exactly what the Constitution requires.

Democrats said they tried to work with Republicans on the bill and characterized Republicans as abandoning what is typically a highly bipartisan process simply because they didn’t get their way on every issue.

As you probably know, Blue America has endorsed progressive Democrat Kara Eastman to replace Bacon next year. "This," she said, "is another example of Don Bacon putting party over the people he represents. He purports to be the great defender of the military and the brave individuals who serve our country, but when it comes down to taking the tough votes, he capitulated to Trump, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, and the rest of his right wing cronies."

The Best Primary Targets For The 2020 Cycle-- And Blue America's First 2020 Congressional Endorsement

Blue America loves a good primary battle against a stinking incumbent-- and we've been involved with them when other Democrat groups were still looking askance at them... as though incumbents somehow "owned" the seats they were representing and and primary was an affront. We worked on primaries against some of the worst Democrats in Congress-- Rahm Emanuel (New Dem-IL), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (New Dem-FL), Steny Hoyer (MD), John Barrow (GA), Darren Soto (FL), Kurt Schrader (Blue Dog-OR), Dan Lipinski (Blue Dog-IL-- see you soon, again, Dan) and the successful ones against Joe Crowley (New Dem-NY), Tim Holden (Blue Dog-PA), Silvestre Reyes (TX) and Al Wynn (MD). One thing I've learned is that among all the necessary components to a successful primary you need a solid villain and you need a driven, compelling candidate. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Matt Cartwright, Beto O'Rourke and Donna Edwards are classic examples of winning primary candidates.

I talked to potential candidates against Crowley for years and never came up with the right one. Ocasio-Cortzez was a self-starter, who wasn't waiting for anyone to give her permission. The Democratic political establishment hates primaries against incumbents and they come down on challengers like a ton of bricks, as they did against her and against Cartwright, O'Rourke and Edwards, none of whom buckled in the slightest.

Persuading voters that their congressman is a villain is never easy. Never. But I've put together a short list of the best Democratic primary targets in the House for the 2020 cycle. It's based on how much the incumbent deserves a primary and takes into account how winnable the primary would be with a good, solid challenger. Left out are even the worst freshmen since none of them have a relevant record yet. Yet.

• Dan Lipinski (Blue Dog-IL)- workin' on it- D+6
• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)- D+9
• Jim Costa (Blue Dog-CA)- workin' on it- D+9
• Frank Pallone (NJ)- workin' on it- D+9
• Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)- R+12
• Josh Gottheimer (Blue Dog-NJ)- R+3
• Jim Cooper (Blue Dog-TN)- D+7
• Kathleen Rice (New Dem-NY)- workin' on it- D+4
• Tony Cárdenas (New Dem-CA)- D+29
• Al Lawson (New Dem-FL)- D+12
• Gregory Meeks (New Dem-NY)- D+37
• Sanford Bishop (Blue Dog-GA)- D+6

Yesterday there was a minor fuss online over Hakeem Jeffries, a Wall Street hack from Brooklyn with tremendous ambition. Politico reported that Alexandria Ocasio and the Justice Democrats are planning to primary him. He's far from my favorite Democrat but I don't know he rises to the best target. His voting record is good ("A" from ProgressivePunch) and it would be really to successfully paint him as a villain in that district (where I used to live). The PVI Is D+36, so obviously there's no worries about defeating him and seeing a Republican grab the seat, which is exactly what would happen after a successful primary against Collin Peterson. (The district starts at the tip of Coney Island, moves east through Sheepshead Bay, north through Flatlands, Mill Basin, Canarsie, East New York, Howard Beach, Ozone Park, Bedford-Stuyvesant, Clinton Hill and west into Downtown Brooklyn.)

I think they may be overstating Ocasio's role in this. But, who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. According to Politico, "The person who spoke with Ocasio-Cortez and her team, who asked for anonymity to discuss a private conversation, called Jeffries the 'highest priority' primary target of Ocasio-Cortez." Seems silly to me when there are far better targets like Lipinski in Chicago and Greg Meeks right there in NYC. Politico: "Challenging Jeffries would open an audacious new front in Ocasio-Cortez’s efforts to steer the direction of the Democratic Party, pitting her and allies against a rising-star African-American Democrat seen by some as a potential future speaker of the House. It would also set off another intra-party New York City brawl-- Jeffries’ Brooklyn district is just a few miles south of Ocasio-Cortez’s Bronx-and-Queens seat-- that would peak just as Democrats hope to rally around a presidential nominee in mid-2020."

The fact that a corrupt corporate Democrat beholden to Wall Street is being talked about in establishment circles as a future Speaker is actually a good reason to consider short-circuiting his career now. I know for sure that Crowley fund-raising was easier because he had been picked by the establishment to follow Pelosi in the role.

Jeffries has sparked the ire of Justice Democrats for several reasons. The group feels Jeffries takes too much money from corporate interests, a key litmus test, and is overly friendly with banking and pro-charter school interests. But Ocasio-Cortez is also unhappy that a campaign donation to her from Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) was allegedly used in a whisper campaign against Lee before her narrow loss to Jeffries in the recent race for Democratic caucus chair-- a charge those allegedly involved have called a complete falsehood.

“It’s personal for Ocasio,” said the person who spoke with Ocasio-Cortez and her staff. "And she’s going to go all out to take him out.”

...Jeffries, a former state legislator who was first elected to Congress in 2012 after running an aggressive primary campaign against former Rep. Ed Towns, forcing him into retirement, represents a majority-black Brooklyn district that’s 23 percent white and 18 percent Latino. Voters there went against Ocasio-Cortez’s preferred candidates for governor and attorney general in 2018 primaries-- Cynthia Nixon and Zephyr Teachout-- instead backing Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Attorney General-elect Letitia James.

Jeffries has climbed the ranks of Congress while working across the aisle, and he is on the cusp of seeing the First Step Act, which he co-sponsored, become law. It would be the fourth bill he's shepherded through the House to be signed into law. The sweeping criminal justice reform measure is expected to pass the Senate this week after years of haggling in both chambers. It reforms prison sentencing, reducing the “three strikes” penalty for drug offenses and giving judges latitude to make exceptions to mandatory minimum guidelines.

Jeffries’ allies said he will be well-prepared to defend his seat-- the former corporate lawyer for CBS and Viacom has more than $1 million on hand after the 2018 cycle, according to OpenSecrets.

"There is no one who knows their district better than Hakeem Jeffries," said Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY). "Hakeem is and will continue to work the district, and he will continue to win by large margins, so, ultimately, whoever primaries him will be wasting their time and their money."

...Justice Democrats-backed primary challenges could sprout elsewhere around the country, too. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, a Blue Dog Democrat who in the past has won endorsements from the conservative Club for Growth and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is also on Justice Democrats’ early target list, according to the person with knowledge of the group’s plans.

Justice Democrats said that in 2020 it hopes to challenge more Democrats who, like Crowley, it considers too closely aligned with special interests and it says don’t demographically reflect districts that are minority-white.

“We’re going to double down on primary challenges and look at some of these white, male corporate Democrats similar to Joe Crowley," said Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats. "Many of these places are majority or plurality people-of-color districts that don’t demographically or policy-wise reflect the diverse working class communities they often serve.”

Rep. Scott Peters (New Dem-CA), a leader of the moderate New Democrat Coalition, which has been a target of criticism for progressives, voiced frustrations with Ocasio-Cortez’s push to primary Democrats.

"This majority was made by New Dems and Blue Dogs,” Peters said, referring to a second Democratic caucus considered more centrist than the New Democrats. "It was not made by turning seats from blue to blue. It was made by those people who turned seats from red to blue. If we want to keep the majority, those are the people we should be listening to."

"We should not be listening to people who don’t represent that mainstream voter who’s given Democrats the majority," Peters added.

Peters is far from the mainstream of the Democratic Party. He votes against anything progressive as a reflex. His ProgressivePunch "F" grade shows him with the 9th most Republican crucial vote lifetime score of any Democrat in the House. He would certainly be on everyone's list of primary targets except for the fact that he's leaving Congress two run for mayor of San Diego, selling his seat to someone who seems much better-- policy-wise-- than Peters is, his pal Paul Kerr, who ran for Congress in a different district and self-funded his campaign with a $5,912,728 personal check (98% of his campaign funds). All that money and he came in 7th in the primary, behind 3 other Democrats and 3 Republicans.

Anyway, next month Blue America will be revealing our first couple of forays into 2020 primaries. First though, as of this morning, we have our first congressional endorsement: Kara Eastman. Kara, who came very close to defeating Republican incumbent Don Bacon last month, just announced she is seeking a rematch in 2020. The margin between them was less than 2%, just 4,945 votes. Perhaps this time the DCCC will actually give her a hand instead of leaving her to the tender mercies of the GOP congressional SuperPAC and their smear campaign. This morning, Kara told her neighbors in Omaha that "Running for Congress to represent the Nebraska 2nd was the greatest honor of my life. I am proud of our campaign and the enthusiasm we ignited in the district. Donald Trump and Don Bacon continue to fuel the incredible partisan divide in our country. Nebraskans deserve an independent voice who can bring people together and fight for the things we all need and deserve. All Nebraskans should be able to get ahead when they work hard; that means having a living wage, healthcare, and affordable, healthy housing. They also deserve a representative who will fight against the corruption we are seeing in DC and stop the outsized corporate influence in our political system. The recent court ruling to overturn the Affordable Care Act is just another example of the Republican effort to strip healthcare away from Americans without a policy to replace it. Bacon even opposed Medicaid expansion, which passed by more than seven percentage points in our state. He continues to demonstrate that his extreme positions are out of touch with those of his regular working-class constituents. I spent the past two years introducing myself to the Nebraska 2nd, now I am excited to give everyone a chance to really get to know me. I am ready to roll up my sleeves again, talk to voters, and earn their votes in 2020."

If you'd like to join us in welcoming Kara into the 2020 election fray, you can do that right here.