Trump Will Lose Tomorrow-- And It Won't Be Close

 

Red America by Nancy Ohanian

The foundation to any Republican presidential victory is Texas. Bottom line: if Trump loses Texas and its 38 electoral votes tomorrow, game over. But he's not likely to lose the state. It's still just too red. But the fact that Trump looks so weak in recent polls-- ahead of a nothing like Biden by just 2.3 points according to the most recent Real Clear Politics average-- is a testament to what a disastrous presidency he's presided over. And while those weak numbers may not deny Trump Texas' 38 electoral votes, they may well presage half a dozen or more GOP congressional losses in "safe" red districts. It's likely that TX-10 (McCaul), TX-21 (Roy), TX-22 (Olson), TX-23 (Hurd), TX-24 (Marchant), TX-25 (Williams) could all flip blue tomorrow.

Over the weekend, one of the Mike Siegel campaigners told me that 366,000 people had already voted early in TX-10, more people than had ever voted in an election in that district totally. Black voters, Asian voters, first-time voters and young voters all set new participation records. (301,200 voters participated in the TX-10 congressional race in 2018.) Siegel is expecting a big turnout tomorrow as well. Big turnouts are not what Republicans encourage. And those new voters and young voters and voters of color are not who Trump is trying to appeal to now.

In fact, Toluse Olorunnipa and Josh Dawsey reported for the Washington Post that Trump's madcap super-spreader rallies are focusing exclusively on his base of uneducated white racists. They wrote about episodes likely to turn off swing voters but enthuse his beloved "poorly educated," noting that in a frenzied burst of campaigning in the last days of the presidential race, Señor Trumpanzee has "accused doctors of fabricating coronavirus deaths for money, pantomimed a physical fight with Democratic rival Joe Biden, mocked a Fox News host for wearing a mask and celebrated his supporters for using pickup trucks to ambush a Biden campaign bus on a Texas highway... [H]is closing message is a classic display of the kind of red meat tailored specifically to animate his most faithful supporters. Convinced that it’s too late to change the minds of voters who are not yet sold on Trump, the president’s advisers are intensely focused on turning out those who are. Trump’s decision to forgo a broad, unifying closing message and instead double down on appealing to a narrow but enthusiastic slice of the electorate is a gamble. Whether it pays off or becomes a cautionary tale will not be known until the polls close Tuesday and the votes are counted."

It doesn't look good for Trump. His polling numbers are falling and COVID-19 infections are rising, particularly ones that are tied specifically to his super-spreader rallies, which caused at least 700 deaths, not counting Herman Cain. Yesterday 71,321 new cases were reported, bringing the U.S. total to 9,473,911-- as well as 399 new reported deaths for a total of 236,471. Swing states, many with Republican governors and or legislatures who have followed Trump's anti-science line, are being hammered. Yesterday's swing state new cases (with number of cases per million residents):

• Texas +4,193 (33,140 cases per million residents)
• Florida +4,865 (37,593 cases per million residents)
• Wisconsin +3,493 (39,307 cases per million residents)
• Ohio +3,319 (18,738 cases per million residents)
• Iowa +2,394 (41,320 cases per million residents)
• Minnesota +2,200 (26,717 cases per million residents)
• North Carolina +2,057 (26,382 cases per million residents)
• Pennsylvania +1,684 (16,755 cases per million residents)
• Arizona +1,527 (34,000 cases per million residents)
• Georgia +1,192 (34,093 cases per million residents)

Trump is in his own fantasy world though, gaslighting his rallies 'til the very end. He spread COVID to his Pennsylvania supporters in 4 rallies on Saturday. The first was on Newton where he told the crowd, "A great red wave is forming. As sure as we’re here together, that wave is forming. And they see it, they see it on all sides and there’s not a thing they can do about it."

In front of large crowds that defied public health guidelines in the middle of a pandemic, Trump offered a defiant closing message about the forces he battled during his first term, claiming that his willingness to fight them is one reason he deserves a second term.

“We did not come this far and fight this hard only to surrender our country back to the Washington swamp,” Trump said Friday in Waterford Township, Mich.

That event kicked off a four-day stretch of rallies taking him to Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Wisconsin. By the time he holds his final rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Monday night, Trump will have given his stump speech to tens of thousands of potential voters.

The president’s allies say he is smart to make a bet on rallying his troops at this stage of the campaign, with few undecided voters left and more to be gained from juicing turnout than from winning converts.

“The weekend before election, you’re not changing minds,” said Bryan Lanza, an adviser on Trump’s 2016 campaign and transition. “You’re not IDing supporters, you’re just turning them out. That’s where we are. Persuasion is done. He’s got to turn out what’s there.”

Trump is under more pressure to turn out his base voters in the last days of the race due to the unprecedented partisan split between Americans who vote early and those voting on Election Day.

More than 90 million Americans have already voted early or by absentee ballot, according to data maintained by the U.S. Elections Project, a nonpartisan early-voting tracker. Democrats have an edge over Republicans in several swing states, and Trump has explicitly told his supporters to cast their votes in person on Tuesday.

...The president’s strategy carries risks. His embrace of the conspiracy theories spread by his most ardent supporters about the coronavirus pandemic has driven away potential supporters, according to polls.

Trump has increasingly used his rallies to promote misinformation about the deadly virus, downplaying it and bemoaning the fact that it continues to dominate news coverage. He has told supporters that the country was “rounding the turn” on the virus even as the case count soars to record levels, and claimed without evidence that a vaccine has been held up until after the election due to politics. On Friday, he mocked Fox News host Laura Ingraham for wearing a mask to his crowded Michigan rally.

“No way!” he said from the stage. “She’s wearing a mask? She’s being very politically correct!”

During the same rally, Trump made the baseless accusation that doctors are inflating the number of patients who died of covid-19 to “get more money.”

“Now they’ll say, ‘Oh that’s terrible what he said,’ but that’s true,” Trump said of his false allegation. “It’s like $2,000 more, so you get more money.”

The American Medical Association called the claim “malicious, outrageous, and completely misguided” in a statement Friday, without naming Trump.

Trump’s conspiratorial approach to the pandemic comes as the number of Americans dying each day has begun to increase, along with the rising caseload and hospitalizations.

More than 230,000 Americans have died of covid-19, and more than 9 million have been infected.

...[H]e has veered away from his prepared remarks to offer controversial running commentary to his supporters. He has fed off crowds chanting “Lock him up!” about Biden and “Superman!” about him. Shortly before his fourth rally of the day in Pennsylvania on Saturday, Trump tweeted a video of several of his supporters forming an intimidating vehicle caravan around a Biden campaign bus as it attempted to drive down a Texas highway.

“I LOVE TEXAS!” the president wrote.

On Saturday, Keith Collins, Trip Gabriel and Stephanie Saul took NY Times readers on a trip into the 20 Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin counties across the country where they claim, inaccurately, that the battle for their states' electoral votes are fiercest. Let's follow along anyway:

Miami-Dade, FL-- A Democratic stronghold, it is not a county Mr. Trump would hope to win. But this majority-Hispanic county was a disappointment for Democrats in 2018, especially in heavily Cuban-American precincts. Younger Cuban voters have started identifying as Trump Republican here.

Disappointment in 2018? The Democrats targeted 2 congressional seats in Miami-Dade and won both. Gillum won with 59.9% and Nelson won with 60.6%

Pinellas County, FL-- Perhaps the biggest swing county in the state, which backed Mr. Trump after twice backing Barack Obama, it is a Florida microcosm: solid Democrats in St. Petersburg and Midwestern retirees elsewhere.

2018 was good for Dems in Pinellas-- Gillum won with 50.7%, Nelson won with 52.6% and Charlie Crist was reelected with 57.6%

Osceola County, FL-- Part of the greater Orlando area, it is increasingly Hispanic. Conservative retirees have been joined by hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans, who did not register in expected numbers to give Democrats an advantage in 2018, and so far, are lagging behind other groups in early voting.

Osceola was another good county for Dems in 2018-- Gillum 58.4%, Nelson 59.7%, and it performed for mediocre Rep. Darren Soto D+26. It would have been way more interesting to include Polk County  

Union County, NC-- In 2016, Mr. Trump easily won this suburban Republican bastion near Charlotte. Republicans remain dominant, but signs of disaffection with the president, along with an upswing in “unaffiliated” voters, give Democrats hope they can trim Mr. Trump’s margin.

Union is one of those counties where Republicans routinely steal votes

Wake County, NC-- One of the nation’s fastest-growing counties, Wake has shifted steadily leftward over the past 20 years, supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 by more than 100,000 votes. An influx of out-of-staters since then stands to boost the Democrats even more, potentially offsetting high Republican numbers in rural areas.

Robeson County, NC-- A former Democratic stronghold, this economically depressed county went for Mr. Trump in 2016. The prize will likely go to the candidate most popular among the Lumbee Indians, the county’s largest group. Mr. Trump held a rally here in October, and both campaigns pledged to support the tribe’s quest for federal recognition.

Robeson delivered for Democrat Dan McCready in 2018 (D+15)

Westmoreland County, PA-- Typical of other counties where Mr. Trump outperformed with white working-class voters four years ago, this area near Pittsburgh is where he must win even bigger margins to counter a likely Democratic surge in the suburbs.

Hillary screwed the pooch but 2 years later Tom Wolf took 46.4% and Bob Casey took 43.9%-- which is all Biden needs to do there and in places like it to be sure of winning Pennsylvania

Chester County, PA-- Democrats must continue their 2018 midterm surge in this suburban Philadelphia county, especially with college-educated women, or Mr. Trump could carry Pennsylvania again.

In 2018 Dems all did better than Hillary had-- Casey drew 59.2%, Wolf took 61.3% and the county performed as a D+18 for Democrat Chrissy Houlahan 

Erie County, PA-- One of three counties in the state that Mr. Trump flipped in 2016, its mix of a working-class post-industrial economy and rural towns makes it “the oracle of Pennsylvania,” in the words of a Democratic strategist.

Erie Co. regretted going for Trump in 2016 and made up for it 2 years later-- Bob Casey 55.7%, Tom Wolf 59.8 and the county is the biggest one in PA-16 and performed at a D+20 level for Democrat Ron DiNicola

Philadelphia County, PA-- The big question here is whether Mr. Biden can re-energize Black voters-- Democrats’ core supporters-- after Hillary Clinton’s lackluster showing in 2016. Mr. Biden will have to boost the numbers to counter Mr. Trump’s margins with rural white voters. The Trump campaign has taken on aggressive tactics, like videotaping voters at ballot drop boxes.

Macomb County, MI-- Heavily unionized and mostly white, the state’s third largest county has picked the statewide winner in the last seven elections for governor and president.

In 2018 Stabenow did 8 points better than Hillary and Whitmer did slightly better than Stabenow. The county performed at a D+19 level for Andy Levin

Oakland County, MI-- Once solidly Republican, it is a more affluent neighbor of Macomb County and has been trending Democratic. It is a prime example of the changes that are taking place in many of the nation’s suburbs. In 2018, it gave Gov. Gretchen Whitmer the biggest margin for a Democrat in 20 years.

Oakland was good for all the Dems running in 2018 and will be for Biden tomorrow

Kent County, MI-- This traditional Republican stronghold-- home to Grand Rapids, where President Gerald Ford was raised-- has moved away from the Republican Party in the Trump era.

Mentioning Ford is the most hawkish possible thing to say about Kent. He served from 1949 to 1973-- 100% irrelevant. Maybe they should have mentioned current Rep. Justin Amash. Stabenow and Whitmer both won the county in 2018

Brown County, WI-- Among the top counties that will decide the state’s winner is the home of vote-rich Green Bay. It’s a swing county that in 2018 voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Scott Walker, and the Democrat for Senate, Tammy Baldwin. Mr. Trump won blowout margins here compared with Mitt Romney in 2012.

Waukesha County, WI-- It is the largest of Milwaukee’s suburban counties. Long a Republican stronghold, the county underperformed for Mr. Trump in 2016. Mr. Biden has forged inroads here, but it’s not clear how deep they are.

Don't get excited; Biden has not forged any inroads in Waukesha. The writers had nothing so say so they made it up

Dane County, WI-- This is home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and it’s where Democrats surged in an April 2020 race for the State Supreme Court. Nearly as many votes were cast here as in Milwaukee County, even though Dane has less than 60 percent of Milwaukee’s population. Heavy turnout in early voting suggests Mr. Biden is claiming those votes.

Grant County, WI-- Emblematic of southwest Wisconsin, it is one of the state’s swingiest regions, where weak partisan identity saw voters shift from Mr. Obama to Mr. Trump.

In 2018 it swung back blue-- Tony Evers beat Scott Walker by about a point and Tammy Baldwin beta her GOP opponent by 9 points

Maricopa County, AZ-- Home to Phoenix and more than 60 percent of the state’s electorate, it is Arizona’s most important county. It went narrowly for Mr. Trump in 2016, but two years later supported a Democrat, Kyrsten Sinema, for senator. The question is whether the county’s changing demographics will tip the state to a Democratic president for the first time since 1996.

Pima County, AZ-- The home of Tucson, Democrats typically run up the score here.

Pinal County, AZ-- The state’s third-largest county is a Republican redoubt. Mr. Trump will have to turn out enough rural white voters to help protect the 3.5-point margin he won the state with in 2016.

Republican "Christianity" Is Entirely Pre-Jesus-- If Not Anti-Jesus-- Theirs Is A God Who Is Judgmental And Punitive

 

Keith Mannes, giving his final sermon in East Saugatuck one week ago

On Saturday evening, the Washington Post's Hannah Knowles did some Trump reporting from the front lines of one of his super-spreader events, this one in Muskegon, Michigan. He told supporters there was "something very beautiful" about "watching everybody get pushed around" in Minneapolis as National Guard troops responded violently to the peaceful protests after George Floyd’s murder. "Wasn’t that beautiful? In Minneapolis‚ they came in, these soldiers … And they had their tear gas, and they had their pepper spray, which the other side doesn’t want you to use, because it’s not nice. They can throw cans at you. They can throw rocks and stones and hurt your police, but you’re not allowed to guard yourself with tear gas, pepper spray." The forces "marched forward," said the would-be Hitler, "and the whole thing was over" as his fascist followers cheered. "There’s something about that when you’re watching everybody getting pushed around, there’s something very beautiful about it."

Muskegon is a 50-50 county on the shores of Lake Michigan. Hillary actually edged Trump there is 2016-- 36,640 (47.5%) to 35,962 (46.6%). Interestingly, Muskegon was Bernie Country that year. He didn't just beat Hillary in the Democratic primary, he beat Cruz, who won the Republican primary and had far more votes than Trump:

• Bernie- 10,062
• Hillary- 8,220
• Cruz- 6,478
• Trumpanzee- 5,757
• Kasich- 3,706
• Rubio- 1,875

In 2018, Muskegon voters turned out for Debbie Stabenow in the Senate race (52.3% to 44.8%) and for Gretchen Whitmer in the gubernatorial race (50.3% to 40.3%). In the congressional race, it was the only Democratic-performing county in MI-02. Since then, 2,790 county residents have been infected by COVID-19 and 78 have died.

Saugatuck is a small township in Allegan County 47 miles south of Muskegon. No doubt there were residents who drove the 50 minutes to see Trump Saturday. In 2016, Trump won Allegan County with 61% and two years later Stabenow and Whitmer each lost the county. It's part of MI-06, where progressive Democrat state Rep. Jon Hoadley is taking on long-time incumbent, conservative Republican Fred Upton. In 2018, Allegan was one of Upton's top bases of support-- performing for him at an R+22 level.

If you're a regular here at DWT you know I was one of the earliest supporters of what turned out to be an anti-Trump evangelical group called Vote Common Good. The pastor of the Christian Reformed Church in East Saugatuck, Keith Mannes, is part of that group as well. He's been the pastor for over 3 decades-- until last Sunday, when he gave his last sermon and walked away from his ministry in the midst of "increasing political tension and divisiveness." His parishioners are overwhelmingly MAGA supporters.

While Mannes loves the congregation he served at East Saugatuck CRC for the past four years, he says the church as a whole has “abandoned its role” as the conscience of the state in support of Trump, leading Mannes to step away.

“There’s a quote from Martin Luther King where he said, ‘The church must be reminded that it is not the master or the servant of the state, but rather the conscience of the state,’” Mannes said. “That just hit me hard because I think, broadly, the white evangelical community in our country has abandoned that role.

“The question of the church largely and how it’s functioned in this moment has been really disturbing. That’s been troubling enough that I need to lay it all down.”

A divide within the faith

Mannes is not the only Christian feeling the strain. He said he knows several other pastors who are feeling the same things.

Additionally, polls show that while white Christians still favor Trump, that support has decreased.

In a poll conducted by Pew Research Center from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, Christian support for Trump had dipped since August.

In the poll, published Oct. 13, 78 percent of white evangelical Protestants said they would vote for or lean toward voting for Trump if the election were held that day. That’s down from 83 percent in August.

White non-evangelical Protestants supported Trump 53 percent of the time in the latest poll, while white Catholics sat at 52 percent, down 6 and 7 percentage points since August, respectively.

According to Pew, 44 percent of registered voters are white Christians, making it a key voting demographic.

Why the strain on the faithful?

George Lundskow, a sociology professor at Grand Valley State University who studies the sociology of religion, said support from the religious community is tied to how people view God.

Lundskow said that while some of the president’s actions may not align with Christian values, he has aligned himself with conservative Christians by acting similar to how they see God-- judgmental and punitive.

″(His actions) don’t seem very Christian, much less conservative Christian,” Lundskow said. “I don’t think it’s about that. It’s something else about religion-- whether you see God as punitive and judgmental or the loving, forgiving version of God. That definitely shapes political views as well.”

Lundskow said this divide between conservative and progressive Christians based on their view of God is a point of division within the faith in terms of political support.

The professor explained that those who see God as punitive tend to support Trump, saying they see him as strong-willed for the way he attacks opponents and “punishes” people for being poor. Lundskow added that Christians who view God as loving and forgiving tend to be more liberal and progressive, welcoming immigrants and “seeking social justice” for the poor.

Years in the making

Mannes has been feeling a disconnect between the teachings of the church and the actions of the political candidate it largely supports for years. It started when Trump announced his campaign in June 2015 while descending down an escalator at Trump Tower.

“From the time he came down the escalator,” Mannes said of when he began to feel an internal struggle. “It’s only been building ever since. From the beginning I thought there’s something about this man and the instrument that he is for a lot of things that are just very not Jesus.”

He said the congregation at his church has “saved (his) faith in many ways,” but what he’s seen from Christians nationally has challenged it.

That includes when white supremacists gathered for a rally in Charlottesville, Va., in 2017 which led to three deaths and dozens of injuries, after which Trump said there were “very fine people on both sides.”

Mannes was part of a group of pastors that walked 130 miles from Charlottesville to Washington, D.C., in August, hearing the stories of people there during the 2017 events.

He called Trump’s photo holding a Bible in front of St. John’s Church in Washington in June, following the use of tear gas and riot control to clear protesters from the area, a “tremendous violation of something deep and holy,” and said it was a key moment in his views.

“It just floors me how church-going people who read the Bible and sing the hymns can show up at a (Trump) rally and just do that deep bellow like an angry mob supporting these horrible things that come out of his heart and his mind. It just began to trouble me so much that I am a pastor in this big enterprise.”

While some, like Mannes, may be turned off by Trump’s actions, Lundskow said many look past them because they believe Trump was sent to be a representative of God.

“If I’m somebody who sees Donald Trump as God’s chosen representative, the leader God has chosen to bring the country back to the right direction, I’m willing to overlook his personal failings,” Lundskow explained. ”(Christians think) if he’s good enough to be God’s representative, he’s good enough to be president.”

The decision to leave

As the tension in his heart and the world around him continued to grow, Mannes said his feelings began to show in his sermons, causing discomfort for some parishioners.

Trying to keep his thoughts internalized became more and more difficult as time went on.

“What it was really doing was tearing me up,” he said. “I’ve had to be very careful to not speak about these things directly with members of the church.

“It’s not only me, but quite a number of pastors I know are just like, ‘This is it? All this preaching we did about Jesus and there’s this big of a disconnect?’ I think that’s a real burden on a lot of pastors’ hearts. I love these people, I love God, I love Jesus, I love the church, but there’s something happening here.”

Mannes sat down with the elders of his church in September to express the tensions he had been feeling. After a long and emotional meeting, they agreed it was time to part ways.

“We got down on our knees, many of us wept. It was a really hard decision,” Mannes said. “It was time for me to lovingly and with great peace and loss separate from the church. It was really crushing because I’ve given my life to the church, and thankfully so.”

‘Be the conscience’

Mannes says he understands many Christians will vote for Trump, and he will still love those who do, but implores them to think about what it means to be a Christian before making their choice.

“I would just implore anybody who claims Christ to just look very seriously at the core things Jesus called us to do and be,” he said. “Do some serious soul searching about who you’re serving and how you’re trying to accomplish that purpose in the world.”

He calls on his fellow Christians to be the conscience of the president, whoever it is, and force them to be better than the division that has become common.

“We’re supposed to be the conscience of the president and we have refused to do that,” Mannes said. “I don’t know that a church who believes in Jesus as we do, can abandon its conscience and not say, ‘Mr. President we’re calling you to better than that and you need to call our nation to better than that.’”

A few weeks prior to his last sermon, Mannes spoke with a member of the church, who asked him to reconsider his decision. The person asked him about his plans once he walked away, with no guarantee that the issue will even persist after Election Day.

“He said, ‘What are you going to do? What are you going to have?’” Mannes recalled. “Well, at least my conscience.”

These days, John Pavlovitz's evangelical ministry is online. His blog, Stuff That Needs To Be Said is stuff that needs to be read. Today he wrote one aimed squarely at Trump supporters: No, I Won’t Agree To Disagree. You’re Just Wrong. "At this point, with the past four years as a resume," he wrote, "your alignment with this president means that we are fundamentally disconnected on what is morally acceptable-- and I’ve simply seen too much to explain that away or rationalize your intentions or give you the benefit of the doubt any longer. I know what your reaffirmation of him is telling me about your disregard for the lives of people of color, about your opinion of women, about your attitude toward Science, about the faith you so loudly profess, and about your elemental disrespect for bedrock truth. I now can see how pliable your morality is, the kinds of compromises you’re willing to make, the ever-descending bottom you’re following into, in order to feel victorious in a war you don’t even know why you’re fighting. That’s why I need you to understand that isn’t just a schism on one issue or a single piece of legislation, as those things would be manageable. This isn’t a matter of politics or preference. This is a pervasive, sprawling, saturating separation about the way we see the world and what we value and how we want to move through this life."

And he was just getting started, perhaps with Keith Mannes' struggle in the back of his mind.

Agreeing to disagree with you in these matters, would mean silencing myself and more importantly, betraying the people who bear the burdens of your political affiliations-- and this is not something I’m willing to do. Our relationship matters greatly to me, but if it has to be the collateral damage of standing with them, I’ll have to see that as acceptable.

• Your devaluing of black lives is not an opinion.
• Your acceptance of falsehoods is not an opinion.
• Your defiance of facts in a pandemic is not an opinion.
• Your hostility toward immigrants is not an opinion.

• These are fundamental heart issues.

I’m telling you this so that when the chair is empty this Thanksgiving, or the calls don’t come, or you meet with radio silence, or you begin to notice the slow fade of our exchanges, I want you to know why: it’s because I have learned how morally incompatible we are. It doesn’t mean I don’t respect you or even love you, but it means proximity to you isn’t going to be healthy.

I’ve been disagreeing with people all my life. That isn’t the issue here.

Were we talking about anything less than the lives of other human beings, I’d be more than willing to disagree with you and, but since we are talking about the lives of other human beings-- I can’t.

I believe you’re wrong in the ways that are harming people.

You’re wrong to deny the humanity of other human beings.

You’re wrong to justify your affiliation with this violence.

You’re wrong to embrace a movement built on the worst parts of who we are.

I simply can’t agree to that.

Now, give yourself a Sunday treat and allow the Resistance Revival Chorus to show you what Mannes' courage to speak truth to power sounds like in song:

A Question Too Ugly For Most Of Us To Contemplate-- Why Are Almost 40% Of American Voters Supporting This Orange Blot On Humanity?

 

Minnesota is a state Trump nearly won in 2016. Hillary took the usually dependably blue state, which had the highest percentage of voter participation in the country, by a very narrow 1.5%-- 1,367,716 (46.44%) to 1,322,951 (44.92%). The Democrats won two suburban congressional districts that had been held by Republicans-- and the Republicans won 2 rural congressional districts that had been held by the Democrats. Trump declared it a battleground state early last year and has been working the state heavily-- although to little avail. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows him losing Minnesota to Biden in a 9 point rout. A Langer poll for ABC News and the Washington Post has just 41% of likely voters casting their ballots for Trump (57% for Biden).

The 2016 electoral map by county looks very attractive to Trump and he isn't giving up in Minnesota yet-- but his efforts there could make the outcome even more lopsided against him. On Tuesday, the state reported 1,135 new COVID cases, bringing the state's badly spiking total to 114,574-- 20,316 cases per million residents. Over 2,200 Minnesotans have died from the disease-- and Trump super-spreader rallies in the state are making matters worse. At least two dozen of the new infections came directly out of Trump events. "Facing a steep surge in coronavirus cases," reported the NY Times, "health officials in Minnesota have connected two dozen virus cases to people who attended presidential campaign events in the past month, most of them attendees at airport rallies hosted by President Trump."

It would be hard to imagine Trump doing as well as he did in 2016-- or Biden doing as badly as Hillary did. But in small, rural counties like Morrison, Todd, Pipestone, McLeod, Clearwater, Sibley, Roseau, Isanti, Wadena, Ramsey, Lake of the Woods, Jackson, Pennington, Meeker, Redwood, Martin and Marshall Trump scored over 65% of the vote-- and many of those people are sticking with him, some with great enthusiasm and every expectation in the world that we're about to get another 4 years of his rule.

Reporting yesterday from another Upper Midwest state, Michigan, Politico's Tim Alberta noted that Michigan is looking less competitive by the day, and there’s a growing likelihood that Trump will be buried statewide November 3. In 2016, Trump narrowly won the state's 16 electoral votes by beating Hillary 2,279,543 (47.50%) to 2,268,839 (47.27%), one of the closest calls in the nation. Right now, it doesn't look so close. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump down 7.2%. The most recent poll was released last week by Ipsos for Reuters showed Trump with just 43% to Biden's 51% (and with 22% of ballots already cast).

Alberta pointed out that although all 3 Rust Belt states that Trump improbably won in 2016 "are problematic," Señor T this year, Michigan looks bleakest of all. "His support has diminished among the white working-class. Black turnout appears certain to rebound after a dismal showing in 2016. New laws that allow for early voting and no-excuse-absentee balloting are expected to push voter participation to historic levels, with Democrats the expected beneficiary of low-propensity Michiganders flooding the ballot box. But the simplest explanation for the president’s trouble here is that he’s continuing to hemorrhage support from white, college-educated women in the suburbs of Detroit. It’s hard to overstate just how badly Trump is performing with this crucial demographic. Over the past several weeks, a raft of internal polls have produced numbers that political professionals here are struggling to comprehend. In Oakland County, the second-biggest voting area in the state, Gongwer reported that Democratic polling shows Biden leading Trump by 27 points; Republicans pushed back with a survey showing Trump down only 18 points. (For reference, Trump lost Oakland County by 8 points in 2016.)"

Yep, suburban women are over this goon, but in Michigan-- like in Minnesota-- there were counties where Trump did better than 65% in 2016 and those people are not abandoning him-- small rural counties like Missaukee, Kalkaska, Ogemaw, Hillsdale, Montmorency, Dickinson, Tuscola, Oscoda, Alcona, Lapeer, Newaygo, Gladwin, Otsego, Sanilac, Branch, Wexford, Luce, Huron and Osceola. Why? What the hell is wrong with the people in these places?

Yesterday, conservative columnist Max Boot-- long a right-wing Republican-- asked the same question in his Washington Post column, How can 42 percent of Americans still support the worst president in our history? Boot has an endless list of indictments against Trump that we've all internalized already: "Trump is on track to be the first president since World War II to see a net loss of jobs during his term. Even worse, he has presided over the loss of 214,000 lives 221,000 lives and counting from covid-19. That’s already nearly four times the U.S. fatalities in the Vietnam War, previously the nadir of presidential bungling. Even now, after having contracted covid-19 himself, Trump refuses to take the pandemic seriously. He keeps promising it will magically disappear of its own accord while holding rallies practically guaranteed to spread the disease. As if that weren’t reason enough to vote for Biden, there is also the fact that Trump has abused his power; he was even impeached for doing so. He has trafficked in racism and xenophobia. He has incited violence. He has kowtowed to dictators and trashed our alliances. He has welcomed Russian attacks on our elections. He has locked children in cages. He has called for his opponents to be locked up. In sum, Trump has made a strong case that he is the worst president in our history."

And then the nub: "Yet tens of millions of voters still support him. What are they thinking? I get that there are single-issue voters to whom Trump has a strong appeal-- people who feel passionately about tax cuts, judges, abortion or Israel. There are also people for whom Trump’s boorishness, racism and xenophobia are not a turnoff but a selling point... There are also, of course, many Trump voters who are convinced that he is the lesser evil, because Biden is supposedly plotting to turn the United States into a 'large scale version of Venezuela,' even while suffering from 'dementia.' They claim Biden is a 'puppet' of the far left, even though he opposes Medicare-for-all, the Green New Deal, a ban on fracking, defunding the police, expanding the Supreme Court and other progressive ideas."

Here's what's painful to think about our fellow Americans in places like Tuscola and Oscoda counties in Michigan, Pipestone and McLeod counties in Minnesota-- as well as Modoc County in California (71.8% Trump), Allegany County in New York (68.4% Trump) and even Wocester, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable counties in Massachusetts where Trump lost in 2016 but still managed to get over 40% of the vote in each. Boot blames Fox News:

A Pew Research Center survey makes clear the extent of the problem. Among those who get their election news primarily from Fox “News,” 86 percent say Trump is delivering the “completely right” or “mostly right” message about the pandemic, 78 percent that “the U.S. has controlled the outbreak as much as it could have” and 61 percent that Trump and his administration get the facts right about the coronavirus “almost all” or “most of the time.” Perhaps the most disturbing finding of all: 39 percent of Fox News viewers say that QAnon-- an insane conspiracy theory that posits that Trump’s opponents are satanic child-molesters-- is “somewhat good” or “very good” for the country.

 

I’m sorry, these are not issues on which rational people can legitimately disagree. Trump’s covid-19 message-- that, as he said Saturday, “it is disappearing”-- is objectively false. In the past week, daily confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States have increased by 13.3 percent and hospitalizations by 9.8 percent. Trump’s claims to the contrary, we have done far worse during the pandemic than most wealthy countries. If we had the same death rate as Canada, 132,000 victims of covid-19 would still be alive. And it should go without saying that QAnon, whose adherents have been linked to numerous acts of violence, is a bane, not a boon.

Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) used to say: “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” That’s no longer true.

...[T]he rise of Fox News and Facebook allows “fake news” to spread much more readily-- and Trump gives it the imprimatur of the Oval Office. It’s bad enough that the president lies so much; what’s worse is that so many think he is telling the truth.

Unfortunately, even if Trump is defeated, a large portion of the country will continue to believe a lot of things that simply are not so-- and a small but significant number could be led into violence by their lunatic beliefs. The disturbing plot by members of a right-wing militia to kidnap the governor of Michigan may be a taste of what is to come. As Francisco Goya warned, “the sleep of reason produces monsters.”

Midnight Meme Of The Day!

 

by Noah

The above is an indication of the gruesome direction the Republican Party has been headed in for decades and there is no evidence indicating that they will ever change direction. If today is how it is in 2020, take a look at 2022. The idea that the Republican Party would actually support the candidacies of the alleged terrorist militia members pictured in tonight's meme is no longer far-fetched at all. Our white supremacist president has called them "good people" and told Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer that she should negotiate with them. He even directed them to "Liberate Michigan." That, of course, has encouraged them. The White House goons are, once again, giving aid and comfort to America's enemies. Whatever happened to the old republican refusal to negotiate with terrorists? That's a rhetorical question, of course. We all know what the Republican Party is now. They'd be negotiating with themselves.

Today's Republican Party has long supported and eagerly accepted the support and violent words and acts of such people. The images of heavily armed ISIS-stylerd militia members taking over and terrorizing the Michigan state legislature earlier this year were far more than tolerated by Republicans from Trump and Moscow Mitch on down, they were endorsed both tacitly and otherwise. The party's Dear Leader has repeatedly stuck up for and incited violent militia and white supremacit SS wannabe types. Lead by Moscow Mitch McTraitor, the current Banana Republican Party $enate contingent showed that they agreed with Trump when they voted to not remove their Dear Leader from the White House even after he spoke in favor of them, not to mention other adversaries of this country. Their voters have shown that they approve.

The arrested Michigan militia members call themselves the Wolverine Watchmen, the same group that had known ties and contacts with Oklahoma City Federal Building bomber Timothy McVeigh. When the accused domestic terrorists in tonight's meme were arrested last week for plotting to kidnap Michigan Governor Whitmer and take her to Wisconsin for some sort of kangaroo court trial and probalbe lynching, the incumbent Republican $enators in Washington and those who run the party said nothing, with one notable exception, Trump himself said something. He doubled down on his attacks on Gov. Whitmer. Ask $enators like Moscow Mitch about it and all you'll get is an unmasked smirk. Is FOX "News" any different? Really? Do you really think Tiki Torch Tucker would ever direct a negative word towards the alleged would be kidnappers? If he did, the Murdoch family would fire him.

Back in 1994, Rep. Newt Gingrich, like many republicans, was campaigning on "blowing up government" and "bringing down big government." Timothy McVeigh got his message and took it to Oklahoma City. More recently, the Florida pipe bomber with the pro-Trump and pro-FOX "News" sticker encrusted van and the Wolverine Watchmen heard Trump's message loud and clear. Back in the 90s, Gingrich didn't stop once he became Speaker of the House. Among other things, he appointed black helicopter conspiracy nut Rep. Helen Chenoworth of Idaho, a hotbed of Neo-Nazi and Christian Identity groups then and now, to be a kind of liaison between him and the far right extremist groups in her state; groups that also had ties to Timothy McVeigh going back to the days when McVeigh was hanging out with the "good people" of various Michigan militia groups. Nowadays, people like Chenoweth are much more common in Congress and even more so in way too many state legislatures. One need look no further than the current House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, and, in Florida, there's the openly racist Governor Ron DeSantis, a Trump favorite. They all ran as Republicans with party support and the obvious support of republican voters. That is just another example of the direction the Republican Party has been embracing for decades. More and more Republicans with Neo-Nazi ties, are runing under the Republican banner with each election cycle. Call them the grandchildren of Joe McCarthy and Pat Buchanan. They have proliferated and some are winning, which of course will encourage the party to run more people like those shown in tonight's meme.

Chenoweth is now residing in an undetermined circle of Hell. McVeigh is in the outer sector of the Seventh Circle. Gingrich is currently a smarmy, obsequious shill for Trump and FOX "News." A trip to the Ninth Circle awaits him.

Remember: What was once considered extreme in the Republican Party is now mainstream in the Republican Party. It may be hard to believe now, but years ago, there were Republicans who would condemn vigilantes like Timothy McVeigh. Today, Kyle Ritenhouse is a hero to them and they don't mind telling you on their social media accounts, talk radio and GOP TV networks every damn day. Tomorrow?

Trump's Super-Spreader Event-- Bringing The Hate To Freeland, Michigan

RealClearPolitics' current Michigan polling average shows Trump down by 4.2%-- but the poll includes a made up poll by Republican Party disinformation group, Trafalgar (that has Trump up by 2 points, the only poll out of dozens this year showing Trump winning in Michigan. Even Rasmussen, also a Republican polling firm, showed Trump down by 8 points-- 51% to 43% on Thursday. Without cheating, Michigan is unlikely to be in Trump's column in November.

Detroit News poll this week

On Thursday, Michigan reported 983 new COVID cases, bringing the state's total to 120,846, which translates to 12,101 cases per million Michiganders, significantly below the national average of 19,904 cases per million residents. 6,894 Michiganders have died of COVID, 690 deaths per million residents. Trump's event Thursday is sure to result in hundreds of more cases in a state that has been successfully flattening the curve but not allowing events like the one Trump just hosted.

In Freeland, about 5,000 people came out to bask in the ugly divisiveness and hatred Trump employs at his rallies. No social distancing no masks. The super-low-IQ crowd seemed happy with Trump's excuses for the revelations in Woodward's book that he lied about the pandemics danger. Excuse #1: Bob Woodward is a "whack job." Trumpist goons tracked down local NY Times reporter Kathy Gray and kicked her out for reporting on Twitter that the crowd was basically maskless.

Reporting on Trump's latest super-spreader event for the Detroit News, Craig Mauger wrote that "Trump took credit for rescuing an already revived auto industry and told his supporters their votes 'will save America' as he roared back into Michigan for his first campaign rally in the state since the COVID-19 pandemic hit. 'After the last administration nearly killed the U.S. auto industry, I saved the U.S. auto industry,' said Trump, making a questionable claim as he took direct aim at Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden. After winning Michigan by 10,704 votes in 2016, the Republican president is hoping for a repeat on Nov. 3. Much of his speech Thursday night outside of an airport hangar in Freeland focused on what he considered his accomplishments related to the state and criticisms of Democratic leaders in office here... 'No president has done for Michigan what President Trump has done for Michigan,' said Trump at one point, before adding, 'I am going to remember Michigan.'"

Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, told CNN he was "pretty puzzled" and "rather disheartened" by Trump’s crowded campaign rally in Michigan-- at which few of the several thousand attendees could be seen wearing face masks and virtually none appeared to be practicing social distancing.

After Trump's rally, Fauci's boss, National Institutes of Health director Francis Collins told Sanji Gupta and Anderson Cooper: "How did we get here? Imagine you were an alien who landed on planet Earth, and you saw that our planet was afflicted by an infectious disease and that masks were an effective way to prevent the spread. And yet, when you went around, you saw some people not wearing them and some people wearing them. And you tried to figure out why, and it turned out it was their political party. And you would scratch your head and think, 'This is just not a planet that has much promise for the future, if something that is so straightforward can somehow get twisted into decision-making that really makes no sense.' As a scientist I'm pretty puzzled and rather disheartened."

I've been saying since April that it's going to take a million deaths before the Trump crowd-- personifications of the word "idiot"-- can be persuaded to take the pandemic seriously. It's a shame that it won't just be a million Trumpists who die, but normal people as well. I may have been wrong; it could take 2 million. Yesterday Time Magazine reported that "Among the world’s wealthy nations, only the U.S. has an outbreak that continues to spin out of control. Of the 10 worst-hit countries, the U.S. has the seventh-highest number of deaths per 100,000 population; the other nine countries in the top 10 have an average per capita GDP of $10,195, compared to $65,281 for the U.S. Some countries, like New Zealand, have even come close to eradicating COVID-19 entirely. Vietnam, where officials implemented particularly intense lockdown measures, didn’t record a single virus-related death until July 31."

At this point, we can start to see why the U.S. foundered: a failure of leadership at many levels and across parties; a distrust of scientists, the media and expertise in general; and deeply ingrained cultural attitudes about individuality and how we value human lives have all combined to result in a horrifically inadequate pandemic response. COVID-19 has weakened the U.S. and exposed the systemic fractures in the country, and the gulf between what this nation promises its citizens and what it actually delivers.

Although America’s problems were widespread, they start at the top. A complete catalog of President Donald Trump’s failures to address the pandemic will be fodder for history books. There were weeks wasted early on stubbornly clinging to a fantastical belief that the virus would simply “disappear”; testing and contact tracing programs were inadequate; states were encouraged to reopen ahead of his own Administration’s guidelines; and statistics were repeatedly cherry-picked to make the U.S. situation look far better than it was, while undermining scientists who said otherwise. “I wanted to always play it down,” Trump told the journalist Bob Woodward on March 19 in a newly revealed conversation. “I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.”

Common-sense solutions like face masks were undercut or ignored. Research shows that wearing a facial covering significantly reduces the spread of COVID-19, and a pre-existing culture of mask wearing in East Asia is often cited as one reason countries in that region were able to control their outbreaks. In the U.S., Trump did not wear a mask in public until July 11, more than three months after the CDC recommended facial coverings, transforming what ought to have been a scientific issue into a partisan one. A Pew Research Center survey published on June 25 found that 63% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said masks should always be worn in public, compared with 29% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

...Americans today tend to value the individual over the collective. A 2011 Pew survey found that 58% of Americans said “freedom to pursue life’s goals without interference from the state” is more important than the state guaranteeing “nobody is in need.” It’s easy to view that trait as a root cause of the country’s struggles with COVID-19; a pandemic requires people to make temporary sacrifices for the benefit of the group, whether it’s wearing a mask or skipping a visit to their local bar.

Americans have banded together in times of crisis before, but we need to be led there. “We take our cues from leaders,” says Dr. David Rosner, a professor at Columbia University. Trump and other leaders on the right, including Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi, respectively, have disparaged public-health officials, criticizing their calls for shutting down businesses and other drastic but necessary measures. Many public-health experts, meanwhile, are concerned that the White House is pressuring agencies like the Food and Drug Administration to approve treatments such as convalescent plasma despite a lack of supportive data. Governors, left largely on their own, have been a mixed bag, and even those who’ve been praised, like New York’s Andrew Cuomo, could likely have taken more aggressive action to protect public health.

Absent adequate leadership, it’s been up to everyday Americans to band together in the fight against COVID-19. To some extent, that’s been happening-- doctors, nurses, bus drivers and other essential workers have been rightfully celebrated as heroes, and many have paid a price for their bravery. But at least some Americans still refuse to take such a simple step as wearing a mask.

Why? Because we’re also in the midst of an epistemic crisis. Republicans and Democrats today don’t just disagree on issues; they disagree on the basic truths that structure their respective realities. Half the country gets its news from places that parrot whatever the Administration says, true or not; half does not. This politicization manifests in myriad ways, but the most vital is this: in early June (at which point more than 100,000 Americans had already died of COVID-19), fewer than half of Republican voters polled said the outbreak was a major threat to the health of the U.S. population as a whole. Throughout July and August, the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force was sending private messages to states about the severity of the outbreak, while President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence publicly stated that everything was under control.

Some incredulity about the virus and public-health recommendations is understandable given the reality that scientific understanding of the newly emergent virus is evolving in real time. The ever shifting advice from health officials doesn’t instill public confidence, especially in those already primed to be skeptical of experts. “Because this is a new infectious disease, a new virus, we don’t have all the answers scientifically,” says Colleen Barry, chair of the department of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “I think that creates an environment that could potentially erode trust even further over time.” But the trust fractures on partisan lines. While 43% of Democrats told Pew in 2019 that they had a “great deal” of trust in scientists, only 27% of Republicans said the same.

Truly worrying are the numbers of Americans who already say they are hesitant to receive an eventual COVID-19 vaccination. Mass vaccination will work only with enough buy-in from the public; the damage the President and others are doing to Americans’ trust in science could have significant consequences for the country’s ability to get past this pandemic.

There’s another disturbing undercurrent to Americans’ attitude toward the pandemic thus far: a seeming willingness to accept mass death. As a nation we may have become dull to horrors that come our way as news, from gun violence to the seemingly never-ending incidents of police brutality to the water crises in Flint, Mich., and elsewhere. Americans seem to have already been inured to the idea that other Americans will die regularly, when they do not need to.

It is difficult to quantify apathy. But what else could explain that nearly half a year in, we still haven’t figured out how to equip the frontline workers who, in trying to save the lives of others, are putting their own lives at risk? What else could explain why 66% of Americans-- roughly 217.5 million people-- still aren’t always wearing masks in public?

Meanwhile, back in Freeland, some Democratic smart ass-- Republican dumb ass?-- played an old Credence Clearwater Revival anthem to rev up the maskless crowd of dummies, "Fortunate Song," a stinging condemnation of rich draft dodgers like Trump, written in 1969, when Trump was dodging the draft.

Some folks are born, made to wave the flag
Ooh, their red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail to the Chief"
Ooh, they point the cannon at you, Lord

It ain't me
It ain't me
I ain't no senator's son, son
It ain't me
It ain't me

I ain't no fortunate one, no
Some folks are born, silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, y'all
But when the taxman comes to the door
Lord, the house looks like a rummage sale, yeah

It ain't me
It ain't me
I ain't no millionaire's son, no, no
It ain't me
It ain't me
I ain't no fortunate one, no

Yeah, yeah
Some folks inherit star spangled eyes
Ooh, they send you down to war, Lord
And when you ask 'em, "How much…

Meet Chokwe Pitchford: Charisma, Perseverance And Empathy

Southwest Michigan has been under the glassy-eyed influence of a well-oiled Republican machine due to Fred Upton’s nearly three-and-a-half-decade career as Michigan’s 6th district congressman, with compounding consequences for Chokwe Pitchford’s generation in particular. The representation of Republicans Al Pscholka and John Proos, and now Pauline Wendzel and Kim LaSata in Michigan’s state legislature, together with historically Republican-controlled county and city governments has meant that Democrats rarely even get a seat at the table there, and they certainly don’t get offered opportunities to speak at white-linen luncheons or mid-summer chamber steak fries.

These conditions have given the false impression to constituents in the 79th district that pervasive poverty and crumbling infrastructure in cities like Benton Harbor are the fault of its largely Democratic school boards, city commissions, and residents and their inability to work together. However, nothing could be farther from the truth.

When an old friend of mine told me about this young, energetic progressive activist running for the Michigan state legislature, I asked state Rep. Jon Hoadley, a member of that legislature and the progressive Democrat who is going to finally retire Fred Upton in November. I couldn't have asked a better person. Their campaigns are working together and Hoadley's enthusiasm for Pitchford was boundless. He tole me that "He's a bold voice for change in southwest Michigan. He's ready to work with everyone, an Olympic quality listener, and focused on solutions. He's a voice we need in the legislature right now." And Jon would know.

For much of the time Upton has been in office, the west end of Michigan has been largely Republican controlled, with Kalamazoo County being the seemingly singular bright spot of blue. Michigan’s east side, with the heavy influence of the bulk of the country’s auto workers at its heart in Detroit, Flint, Saginaw and Pontiac, has been subjected to a push and pull for power between Democratic unions and Republican founding auto giants like the Fords, the Durants, the McLaughlins, and the Chryslers.

When auto sales are up, life is good for all. When auto sales are down, layoffs begin and working families go without while the fat cats wait it out, warm and comfortable in their mansions, burning their piles of money to cook their foie gras and keep warm.

Sounds familiar during COVID, doesn’t it?

So what’s the solution? Electing people who are truly invested in the holistic and sustainable wellness of his state, his community and its people, and whose lived experiences more closely resembles those of the majority who live, work, and play here. People like Chokwe Pitchford. I asked him to introduce himself to DWT readers who want more information than what you can glean from the video or what you can find on his website or his Facebook page or by following him on Twitter. So, please, read Chokwe's guest post below and if you like what he has to say, please consider contributing to his campaign by clicking on the Blue America 2020 state legislative thermometer on the right. And remember, a $10 or $20 contribution goes a long way towards building an effective grassroots campaign for a state legislative race. Flipping the Michigan state House is probably going to come down to this race and Chokwe's candidacy.



Politics is Personal; Perseverance Should be a Prerequisite for Running for Office
-by Chokwe Pitchford

My first television ad (up top) was released last week. In it, I talk about the perseverance required of families like mine in today’s America. An America where, depending on what generation you belong to, you’ve lived through multiple economic crises, a housing crash, or, like me, a “crack epidemic” with family members caught up in the ensuing “War On Drugs.” Maybe your family has been impacted by the more recent “opioid crisis,” an epidemic by any other name, deserving of its own war on the pain points we share, or at least recognize, like poverty, housing insecurity, and joblessness. Maybe, as a first-time voter in a presidential election, also like me, you’ve been living in a country at war for as long as you can remember, with a climate crisis and a global pandemic on the side, just for good measure.

Something occurs when you’re a little kid, watching what’s happening around you to all the people you love and who look like you, and you’re thinking to yourself, this is not right. Again, and again, I’ve watched families like mine-- generations of folks who are working hard, trying to do everything “right”-- being cut out of the American Dream we, too, are guaranteed by the constitution of the United States of America.

Understandably, some people just get angry. Some people give up.

I got motivated to run for office.

I am a twenty-year-old Black man and I’ve grown up between New Orleans, where the hospital I was born in was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina; Atlanta, Georgia, where my family’s home was lost in the housing market crash; and Benton Harbor, Michigan, where years of strategic disinvestment in and disenfranchisement of people of color, especially those who are Black or indigenous, led to the high school I’d graduated from just the year before being threatened with closure by the state. It was then that I thought, “Someone from my community needs to run for office.”

When I looked in the mirror, that someone was me.

I hope you will vote to give me the opportunity to represent all the hard-working families in the 79th district with something in common: we’ve all been nurtured by years of republican control to believe that resources are so limited that we must fight one another for the crumbs from one very small piece of foie gras pie. The truth is that families in Benton Harbor could thrive in safe, resource-rich environments just as families in who live in cities like St. Joseph do if resources were allocated more equitably. If, for instance, resources weren’t squeezed out of communities like Benton Harbor’s overpoliced neighborhoods through bonds, fees, and court costs to fund a criminal justice system that was never designed to enforce the laws equitably or even pursue justice when the criminals don’t look like me or my family.

The price working people must pay-- like single moms working two and three jobs so they never have to ask for help (because they “made their beds,” right?)-- when times are tough, in a seasonal economy like Michigan’s, is compounded over decades and over generations that never truly catch up. And don’t get me started on what student loan debt might look like for young people like me starting out in a post-COVID economy.

The segregation and resulting disparity we see so blatantly displayed here isn’t sustainable. It’s why we’re in a come-to-Jesus moment regarding racial equity. Perpetuating the idea that racism lives mainly in the south and that northern states have somehow been immune is a myth.

Michigan overall is a deeply segregated state, which harms our ability to compete in a global economy. If small businesses can’t thrive here, due in part to the seasonal nature of doing business in Michigan, we can’t continue to support the tourism industry which provides many working families with the most basic living expenses, or with second and third jobs, with ways to pay for their kids’ extracurricular activities, for family vacations, for kids and their families to pay for college, or for families to be able to help their kids while they start their lives.

Well, enough is enough. Closing schools can never again be an answer we entertain. The opposite of segregation isn’t just integration, it is investment. Rather than allow huge corporations like Nestlè to exploit our precious resources for profit while we allow that same water to poison the children of Flint, my promise to you if I am elected is that I will work every moment I am breathing to ensure that, as a state, we begin investing in all Michigan’s working families from Hagar Shores to Watervliet, from Benton Harbor to Bridgman, and everywhere in between.

While it is true that I am just starting out in my life and career, after our latest campaign finance report that says our fundraising is running neck and neck with my opponent’s-- who wouldn’t be where she is without a steady influx of DeVos money-- Daily Kos reported that our campaign has a real shot at turning that badly needed fourth seat blue in Michigan’s state house.

“It may well be a long shot that we Democrats have nominated a 20 y.o. in this race. However, given everything we’ve been through the last 20 years as a party, and looking at the road ahead and seeing how Chokwe powerfully frames the choice, isn’t it worth taking a moment and making a donation to at least give Chokwe Pitchford a shot?

“Think of it this way, every new voter and student Chokwe Pitchford turns out to vote will add to the support for Biden/Harris in Southwest Michigan, a crucial swing state.”

In that spirit, if Michigan’s 79th district voters show up in November, electing someone like me who knows what it is to persevere, someone who recognizes and honors the perseverance of his constituents, means we can protect things like a pregnant person’s right to access the full spectrum of reproductive healthcare. It means ensuring that every kid has every opportunity to succeed with increases to tuition-free career and technical education, and partnering with unions to create more apprenticeship and journeyman positions that serve more students, including those who are chronically underserved. It means we’d be able to lower prescription costs by creating a citizens’ commission to monitor, track, and approve-- or not-- what drug manufacturers want to charge for life-saving prescription drugs like asthma medications and insulin. It means we’d be able to introduce and have a prayer at passing bipartisan legislation to use our existing unemployment system to cover parental and sick leave for Michigan’s working families, helping small businesses in the process. And doing it without having to wait for such critical help to come at the federal level because republicans and democrats in our state legislature would be forced to represent all of their constituents and look at the merits of proposed legislation, versus voting on the basis of purely partisan power plays.

And most of all, flipping Michigan’s 79th district blue means we would have the opportunity to invest in and help turn around my state’s struggling public school system that was once among the greatest in the country, and never threaten to shut down any kid’s school, ever again.