What Happened At The Polls Yesterday?

There seems like a great deal of joy out there online because of Andrew Gillum's come-from-behind win for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Florida. Andrew's an old friend who I've know for a couple of decades. I'm thrilled he won and Blue America was an early endorser. We were overjoyed that he beat two conservative Democrats, Gwen Ghaham and Philip Levine, sweeping all of the big cities: Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Tallahassee and West Palm. The tough part comes next, when he goes up against Trump's nominee, far right extremist Ron DeSantis (who defeated the mainstream conservative Adam Putnam 56.5% to 36.6%).

Downside 1- 1,610,016 Republicans voted and just 1,495,194 Democrats did. We're going to have to do better in November, Please consider contributing to Andrew's campaign here. Remember when Trump was screaming about Sessions going after "the other side" last week? Take my word for it, the DOJ will soon be coming out with charges against Andrew. After all, Trump is the most repulsively racist "president" since Andrew Jackson. Just watch.

Downside 2- In all the congressional races, the most consiervative Democrat beat the more progressive one, most tragically in FL-09, where a wretched New Dem, Darren Soto, was helped by a gang of Republican billionaires-- who spent a million dollars in a concentrated smear campaign-- to defeat Alan Grayson. Other races were rotgut candidates from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party outspent progressives and beat them were in FL-07, where Blue Dog Stephanie Murphy beat Chardo Richardson; FL-15, where progressive Andrew Learned was beaten by worthless conservative Kristen Carlson; FL-16 where David Shapiro beat Jan Schneider; FL-18 where Pam Keither was beaten by Lauren Baer; FL-26, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell beat Demetries Grimes; and FL-27 where the 5-person race leaves Democrats with Donna Shalala instead of eight of the 2 progressives, David Richardson or Matt Haggman.

In Oklahoma, the only race we were watching was the primary runoff in the 5th congressional district (OK City) between pointless conservative Kendra Horn and Berniecrat Tom Guild. The establishment got what it wanted and in November we'll watch Horn go do in flames to an even more conservative Republican, Steve Russell. A little good news in Oklahoma: Last night, The Republic reported that six more incumbent Republican state House members lost their seats. All six voted against a tax hike used to fund a teacher pay raise. "Of the 19 House Republicans who voted against the tax hike, eight have now been defeated. Seven others decided not to run. Only four have advanced to the general election."

Arizona was something like Florida inasmuch as the progressive gubernatorial candidate, David Garcia, won the Democratic nomination to go up against Republican incumbent Doug Ducey.

In the Arizona Democratic primary for Senate there were no surprises, Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema, the worst Democrat in the House-- not second worst or third worst, the worst-- won the nomination against Deedra Abboud, who spent $66,920 to Sinema's $10,299,504. Sinema, who was handpicked for Arizona by Chuck Schumer and Wall Street, took 81% of the vote. No one expected a different outcome. The less sure vote was on the GOP side, where mainstream conservative Martha McSally was way ahead of the 2 neo-fascist candidates this morning-- only 60% of the precincts had been counted as of this writing. McSally was over 52% with Trumpist Kelli Ward at 28% and Trumpist Joe Arpaio at 19%. McConnell was able to keep Trump from mouthing off about the race.

The only contested House seat was down in Tucson (AZ-02, McSally's now open seat), where the conservative establishment candidate, Ann Kirkpatrick, beat progressive Matt Heinz, again-- like with Grayson-- the race being swung by hundreds of thousands of dollars from wealthy Republican donors who wanted a fake Democrat, not a progressive. You didn't hear a peep out of the DCCC about all this Republican sewer money flooding into the districts because it was going to the same corrupt, right-of-center candidates Ben Ray Lujan and the DCCC backed. This idea of wealthy Republicans picking candidates in Democratic primaries is going to come back and bite Democrats in the ass in a very bog way-- and it should. 

Have You Voted Today?

Hundreds of thousands of dollars-- certainly well over a million by this morning-- have gushed into the FL-09 Democratic primary from conservative billionaires-- primary from the Murdoch family and assorted Wall Street banksters. The money is laundered through a network of slimy SuperPACs controlled by Nancy Jacobson's No Labels and has gone entirely to smear progressive icon Alan Grayson. The goal is to keep conservative New Dem, Darren Soto, in Congress. Why? Watch the video up top? That's the big prize for No Labels and their financiers... phasing out Social Security and Medicare. The other primary today where No Labels is financing attacks against a progressive to bolster a right wing Democrat is in Tucson (AZ-02), where conservatives are trying to get another New Dem, Ann Kirkpatrick, back into Congress. So the smear machine-- operated by both No Labels and EMILY's List-- has been working overtime against progressive Democrat Matt Heinz.

With that much right-wing interest in Democratic primaries, you've got to think those are the two most important congressional races in the country today. And they are:

• FL-09- Alan Grayson
• AZ-02- Matt Heinz

Are there other races important for progressives today? Oh yes. Let's start in Florida and work our way west. The biggest news story in Florida is the gubernatorial race. On the Republican side 2 conservatives are battling it out-- establishment Howdy Doody character, Adam Putnam, who was the front-runner, and a neo-fascist, Trump-backed congressman: Ron DeSantis, the current front-runner after multiple Trump endorsements. DeSantis would probably be a gift for Democrats since he is so far right that independent voters will probably not vote for him in November-- and independents decide who wins in Florida statewide races.

On the Democratic side, we've endorsed Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, the progressive in the race. His two right-of-center opponents, an ex-governor's daughter and failed one-term Blue Dog congresswoman Gwen Graham and wealthy former Miami Beach mayor Philip Levine, are favored by the Democratic establishment. Although insipid Republican-lite candidates like Graham and Levine keep losing in Florida, the hope of the establishment is that the wave would drag either of these worthless candidates to victory. With Jeff Greene all but withdrawn from the race, Gillum is the only candidate representing the Eleanor and Franklin wing of the party-- or what you could call, the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. Graham and Levine are the kind of careerist characters who define the Republican wing of the party.

Aside from the Grayson-Soto race, progressives should be looking at the open seat in FL-15, where Dennis Ross is retiring. The district includes Tampa suburbs and agricultural parts of Polk County. Trump beat Hillary there by 10 points (53-43%) and the PVI is R+6. There are two Democrats running today, a conservative EMILY's List attorney, Kristen Carlson, a real nothing-burger, and a progressive Navy Vet, Andrew Learned, who backs Medicare-For-All. Carlson is Republican-lite candidate who doesn't.

With Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retiring, FL-27 in Miami is another open seat and a near-certain Democratic pick-up. Hillary trounced Trump by 20 points-- 59-39% and the PVI is listed as D+5 by is effectively D+7 (Cook is slow). Of the 3 top candidates, the front-runner is elderly establishment status quo rich person, Donna Shalala, terrible candidate. There are two progressives, state Rep. David Richardson and former Miami Herald reporter Matt Haggman. Haggman would make the best member if Congress of the three. Yesterday, the Tampa Bay Times reported that "fired-up Democrats flocked to early voting sites over the weekend to give the party an early voting advantage over Republicans and close the gap in turnout between the parties two days before election day." Today, polls in Florida are open from 7am 'til 7pm.

In Oklahoma there's a run-off in the 5th district (Oklahoma City) between a pointless establishment hack, Kendra Horn, and a dedicated progressive and Berniecrat, Tom Guild (endorsed by Blue America). The winner faces far right congressman Steve Russell in November. Electing Republican-lite Horn is the same as handing Russell reelection.

And now Arizona. Republican Doug Ducey is seeking reelection. There are 3 Democrats vying for a chance to defeat him-- former Department of Education official David Garcia, the progressive in the race, plus state Sen. Steve Farley and a YMCA employee named Kelly Fryer. Garcia is polling well and is the only chance the Democrats have to take out Ducey.

The race to replace Jeff Flake in the Senate will be between very right-wing Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema, a corrupt, pretend Democrat who is ahead in the polls, and one of 3 Republicans, mainstream conservative congresswoman Martha McSally, the establishment pick and two extremist lunatics, Kelli Ward, and controversial ex-Sheriff Joe Arpaio. McConnell has persuaded Trump not to endorse either of the two Trumpists and just keep his mouth shut so McSally can win the primary since she's seen as the only chance the GOP will have to defeat Sinema.

There are really no exciting House primaries in Arizona other than the one in Tucson pitting the very conservative carpetbagger Kirkpatrick against local progressive doctor, Matt Heinz. Aside from the GOP billionaires and EMILY's List pumping money into the race smearing Heinz, the DCCC is also backing Kirkpatrick. Polling shows Heinz ahead, in large part because of Kirkpatrick's record as a die-hard NRA supporter, an opponent of Wall Street reform-- she voted with the GOP against Dodd-Frank-- and because of her support, along with the Republicans, to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

There's A Big Primary In The Tucson Area Tomorrow-- And it Could Be Waterloo For Another DCCC Candidate

The DCCC didn't have the decency wait for local Democratic voters to pick a candidate to run for the AZ-02 nomination. They just barreled in and endorsed-- and spent tons of money on-- the most conservative of the 7 Democrats in the race, Ann Kirkpatrick. Kirpatrick isn't from southern Arizona but she "moved" down to Tucson-- if she even did (she seems to live in Phoenix and just goes down to Tucson to visit her grandchildren and to campaign)-- to get back into Congress.

The 2 most recent polls-- one done for Kirkpatrick's campaign and one done for Matt Heinz's campaign-- both show Heinz slightly ahead, although a source inside the DCCC told me their own poll shows Heinz beating their candidate by 5 points. She's outspent him two-to-one and money has poured into the district, not just from the DCCC, mostly to introduce her to the locals, but from the contemptible No Labels network of dirty money SuperPACs funded by conservative billionaires (particularly the Murdoch family.) Why would wealthy Republicans be spending so much money in a Democratic primary?

Easy: whichever Democrat wins the primary is going to be the next AZ-02 member of Congress. The day Martha McSally announced she was running for the seat, Paul Ryan's SuperPAC folded up it's tent, shut down the Tucson campaign office and snuck out of town in the dead of night. They know very well that Republican Lea Marquez Peterson isn't going to win. She's not just like Trump policy-wise; she's brags incessantly about what a great businesswoman she is-- the way he did-- and then ignores questions about her gigantic bankruptcy-- like he did. Knowing that a Democrat has a 90% chance, Republican donors looked at Kirkpatrick's record and Heinz's record; it was no contest. Kirkpatrick is the best Republican running in the AZ-02 Democratic primary.

Matt Heinz is a progressive. Kirkpatrick, a New Dem, was an NRA star-- who publicly boasted she would protect them from Obama and who got an "A" rating from them. (As part of her campaign of lies and deception, she and her unscrupulous allies have been sending out mailers calling Heinz the NRA candidate to confuse voters. But that isn't the real reason why she's getting so much money from rich Republican contributors. What the Murdochs and their pals are most excited about is that Kirkpatrick voted with the GOP against Wall Street reform (Dodd-Frank), with the GOP on extending the Bush tax cuts, with the GOP on turning Medicare into a voucher program and, in general, voting with the GOP far more frequently than most Democrats. If you can't get a real Republican, you go for someone from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. And that's Ann Kirkpatrick... always has been; always will be.

Her GOP allies are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars smearing Heinz. She has been moaning that Heinz's policy-oriented compare-and-contrast ads are "negative" but her negative mailers-- 3 on Friday alone-- are part of a tidal wave of slime and negativity. One of Politico's worst fools, Elena Schneider, wrote a lazy, misleading piece yesterday that doesn't even mention that Kirkpatrick is getting help from billionaire Republicans, like the Murdochs (which you'd think her editor and readers might be confused about). She also seems to have not bothered to explain where the negativity started in this race. Schneider also kept hammering home that Kirkpatrick, an arch conservative, is "a moderate." The word "moderate" is the most admired political description in U.S. politics. The opposite of "moderate" is what... radical? extremist? fanatical? What? Matt Heinz's policy agenda is in tune with what Americans want-- nice and moderate. Ann Kirkpatrick is way to the right of what Americans want-- positions so so conservative that the Murdochs and their Wall Street allies are bankrolling her (ironically, along with the DCCC-- yes, strange bed-fellows indeed). Elena needs to go back for some emergency journalism courses... stat.

How much like a Republican does she sound, especially at the end of this video where she brags about her "A" from the NRA? In fact this is how she greeted the NRA when they held their convention in Phoenix. "I am not going to allow Washington to ignore the values of Arizonans' and the traditions of four generations of my family in District One, and I am proud to be pushing back against the federal government to stop our Constitutional rights from being infringed. Every time the anti-gun rights groups propose legislation that restricts our freedoms, I am going to make sure they know millions of Americans will fight them every inch of the way." (And she lies right to the voters and says Heinz is the NRA candidate!) Don't forget to vote tomorrow. Washington is already too full of politicians just like Ann Kirkpatrick.

Conservative Billionaires Think They Can Buy Democratic Primaries-- Can They?

The day after the New York congressional primaries, geniuses in the mass media, including in New York City, were running around asking how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spells her name. They missed the boat on that one-- missed it entirely. Now they're missing the boat on another big story-- that Republican billionaires are spending heavily in Democratic primaries. They want to pick the Democratic nominees, just the way they pick the Republican nominees. I sent one of the smartest mainstream media guys a tip-off about it. His response was "hey man, will def take a look and give it some thought! maybe not today, buried. but this week. will be in touch." Let's see, that was on August 8 so it's no longer "this week," nor even the week after.

The money is being funneled into Democratic primaries by one of the shadiest conservative operatives in American politics, Nancy Jacobson who controls a network of SuperPACs through her No Labels/Problem Solvers outfits. I first noticed when she was up to when she dumped a ton of last minute sewer money into the IL-03 race pitting progressive Marie Newman against right-wing Blue Dog Dan Lipinski. Marie was winning the race when a tidal wave of Jacobson slime flooded the district, one smear after another. In the end all the No Labels garbage ads saved Lipinski's neck. He beat Newman 48,675 (51.1%) to 46,530 (48.9%). Who put up the millions of dollars for a Democratic primary? Republicans and conservative Democrats. One name I noticed today was in a letter from progressive candidate for Rhode Island Lt. Governor, Aaron Regunberg, running against a conservative Republican with a "D" next to his name, Dan McKee (who took $150,000 from the Walton family and from Jonathan Sackler, the big Bobby Jindal and Joe Lieberman financial backer and the pharmaceutical billionaire behind the nation’s OxyContin crisis. The name I recognized from the Wall Sreet billionaire campaign to save Lipinski was Tony Davis, a Rahm Emanuel ally who founded and is president of Linden Capital Partners. He just dumped $50,000 into the relatively low-profile Rhode Island race.

"We think," wrote Regunberg, "this is just the beginning of the corporate dark money coming into our state to support Dan McKee... I’m proud to run a campaign that doesn’t take money from Wall Street, corporate PACs, fossil fuel interests, drug manufacturers or the gun lobby. We don’t have out-of-state millionaires and billionaires, because we have something more powerful-- the people. And in a fight with Big Money, the people can win."

I hope he's right because billionaire Republicans are spending big to defeat progressive Democrats in every part of the country. And that trend is accelerating right now. James Rupert Murdoch-- yeah, the Fox guy-- gave Jacobson SuperPACs to support conservative Democrat Darren Soto against Alan Grayson in their primary. Jacobson is also spending dark money in favor of Arizona conservative Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in her primary against Matt Heinz. Sad Horrifying that the DCCC and EMILY's List and the Republican billionaires-- including James Murdoch-- behind the Progress Tomorrow right-wing PAC, are all spending money against the progressive in the Tucson primary, Matt Heinz, and trying to bolster Kirkpatrick. So far they've spent half a million dollars to make sure the Democratic nominee is a conservative. Ironically, the ugliest and most vicious and untruthful of all the ads are from EMILY's List, a group that never used to but now absolutely hates progressive men even more than the DCCC or the GOP does.

Jacobson's web of sleazoid SuperPACs include innocuous-sounding outfits like United for Progress, United Together, Forward Not Back, Progress Tomorrow, Patriotic Americans PAC, Citizens for a Strong America, etc, but they are entirely funded by contributions from 5 and 6-figure right wing donors, such as Rupert Murdoch and his son, Chicago White Sox and Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf, hedge fund manager Louis Bacon, former Major League Baseball Commissioner Allan Selig and Wheels Inc. executive Jim Frank. As of Friday they had poured almost $600,000 into the smear campaign against Grayson. Jacobson has already lost in primary races for right-wing Democrats John Morganelli (PA) against Susan Wild (PA) and against Debra Haaland for No Labels DINO, Damon Martinez in Albuquerque.

Darren Soto is exactly the kind of fake Democrat Jacobson, the Murdochs and other GOP billionaires want to see beat progressives like Grayson. Soto voted to prosecute all abortions as murder and voted to force women who want an abortion to undergo a humiliating procedure called "transvaginal ultrasound." Since being primaried by Grayson he's been apologizing for those votes, saying he "made a mistake." He hasn't apologized for the votes that earned him "A" ratings from the NRA-- twice. And because of those hair-raising votes, the NRA endorsed him. He voted for Trump-sponsored laws 58 times in Congress and both times impeaching Trump came up in Congress, Soto voted NO. The reason No Labels is so enthusiastic about him is because he has said that he is "open-minded" about phasing out Social Security benefits or eliminating them altogether, No Labels' top issue.

Meanwhile, Soto is one of Congress' most corrupt Democrats, well known for partying with lobbyists, spending taxpayer money and campaign money illegally on personal items for himself and his wife. He has even accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign support from Trump’s Education Secretary Betsy DeVos and her charter school allies. Generally speaking he's been a big waste of a solidly blue seat in Congress, accomplishing nothing for anyone... but himself. That compares badly with Grayson's record:

During a debate with Grayson two weeks ago, Soto claimed "to be a great champion of women’s rights," a lie Grayson directly challenged, bringing up the specifics of Soto's shameful voting record-- like voting twice to criminalize abortion so that doctors could be charged with murder for performing one. Soto had no answer... except to say he regrets those votes. He doesn't regret them enough to turn down the help he's getting now from the anti-Choice extremists who are flooding central Florida with lies against Grayson and nonsensical assertions of Soto's grandeur.

Blue America members have been helping Grayson with his election campaigns since 2006. And he's never let us down-- always one of the 2 or 3 best members of Congress and living up to his promises. He needs us again now. The primary is August 28 and he really needs to get on the air and respond to the lies Jacobson and Murdock are flooding TV and radio with. Please consider contributing what you can by clicking on the Blue America 2018 congressional elections thermometer on the right. As of yesterday another dark money PAC had bought ads on one of the big Spanish language radio stations-- one ad every hour until election day! That's called brain-washing. It's what fascists do; it's what Republicans do. Republican billionaires know their party is going to lose control of Congress in November. So they are working to defeat progressives and make certain friendly conservative DINOs become the nominees of the Democratic Party. We can't let this happen. It's our party, not theirs.

Ann Kirkpatrick Sucks-- And She Has Always Sucked... Which Is Why Fox News Loves Her

We've been writing about Arizona New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick for years-- here are some of the most recent. She's awful and always has been. So while everyone has been talking about how Fox and Friends accidentally put a real Democrat on the air, Barbara L'Italien by accident, I want to make sure people know why Fox and Friends recognized Kirkpatrick as a friend and how eager they were to get her on the air to bash Democratic values.

First as couple off words about Massachusetts state Senator Barbara L'Italien, a candidate for Congress in the open-- and very crowded-- Niki Tsongas seat, which stretches along the northern border of the state from Haverhill, Lawrence, Andover and Lowell through Groten Acton and Concord out to Fitchburg and Winchendon. The PVI is D+9 andTrump only took 35% of the vote there. Of the 14 Democrats vying to replace Tsongas, 3 have significantly outraised L'Italien ($701,881)-- Dan Koh ($2,989,826), Rufus Gifford ($1,343,897) and Lori Trahan ($1,133,585). Whichever Democrat wins the September 4 primary might as well start packing for Congress September 5.

Monday morning Fox and Friends called the L'Italien campaign by accident, looking for the cruddy conservative Democrat who always agrees with the Fox perspective. A L'Italien staffer, Joe Katz, saw his opportunity to get his candidate on the air and grabbed it resulting in the awesome video at the top of the page. Knowing that Fox and Friends is Trumpanzee's favorite early morning viewing, L'Italian ignored the hosts' inane question (for Kirkpatrick) and looked into the camera and said "I'm actually here to speak directly to Donald Trump. I feel that what's happening at the border is wrong. I believe that separating kids from their parents is illegal and inhumane." She said who she is and continued: "We have to stop abducting children and ripping them from their parents’ arms, stop putting kids in cages, and stop making 3-year-olds defend themselves in court," very much not the messaging Fox hosts Jillian Mele and Rob Schmitt wanted on the air, nor the message Ann Kirkpatrick is interested in being put out either. She admits she would have voted with the handful of right-wing and racist Democrats who went along with the GOP last week in backing ICE. That's always been Kirkpatrick-- and always will be... a Republican with a "D" next to her name. The DCCC backs her all the way and has been spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to make sure she-- and not progressives Matt Heinz or Mary Matiella-- wins the August 28 primary.



AZ-02 is the Tucson-based southern Arizona district Ann Kirkpatrick is trying to win. She's from northern Arizona and represented a district up there. She doesn't live in southern Arizona but visits her grandchildren in Tucson from time to time. She was the poster child for the NRA, who has always graded her an "A" and it doesn't surprise anyone that she backs ICE. She's always been at the very heart of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party.



This morning, I spoke with Heinz just as he was getting off his night shift at the hospital he works at. "I was flabbergasted," he told me, "to see Ann raise her hand to support ICE with no additional reform or changes in oversight. But I was in no way surprised to see her once again change her answer the second it wasn't convenient for her. This has become a pattern of hers; she'll say one thing and then immediately try to say the opposite just to further her political agenda. I strongly believe in the need for a massive overhaul of ICE and a change of leadership that starts at the very top with electing a new president. To allow the status-quo to continue is simply unacceptable to me and to the voters of Southern Arizona. The people don't have faith in our political system because politicians flip-flop between answers to whichever is most convenient in the moment. This is exactly why national entities, and the DCCC in particular, need to let the voters decide who can best represent their community before coming in to back a particular candidate. DC insiders just don't understand Southern Arizona and it's becoming increasing clear to anyone paying attention that neither does Ann."

Another District The DCCC Is Stumbling Around In And Screwing Up The Works

Since we write so much about how terrible the DCCC interference in Democratic primaries is, people often ask me which one of the races are they screwing up the most. They've certainly done immense damage in Houston (TX-07), in Austin (TX-21), Dallas (TX-32), Omaha (NE-02), Orange County (CA-39), South Jersey (NJ-02), the Denver suburbs (CO-06), Syracuse (NY-24), and South Texas (TX-23), but the race in Tucson (AZ-02) may well be the most disgusting. Ann Kirkpatrick was already in Congress and accrued really horrible, conservative voting record and a consistent record of fighting tooth and nail for her benefactors at the NRA. Kirkpatrick was a rotgut New Dem and a disgrace to the Democratic Party. There are two viable Democrats in the primary this time and the DCCC has strongly backed Kirkpatrick even though she's not the strongest candidate.

How can I make that assertion? New polling of likely Democratic primary voters from FM3 Research released last week shows that Matt Heinz has a narrow lead despite the fact that Kirkpatrick has huge name recognition from her failed 2016 Senate race and has already spent $458,729 to Heinz's $220,032. (The DCCC has helped her corral $234,667 in PAC contributes-- compared to just $7,500 that Heinz has brought in from PACs.)

While Democratic primary voters are familiar with both candidates, they are more likely to hold a favorable opinion of Heinz, and after hearing equal positive nformation about these two candidates, support for Heinz increases. Furthermore, the survey shows that many aspects of Kirkpatrick’s voting record in Congress pose a serious problem for her among Democratic primary voters, particularly her support of Republican tax cuts, cuts to Medicare, and her former “A” rating from the NRA.

...In an initial Democratic primary ballot test, Matt Heinz currently leads the field with 27%, giving him a four-point edge over Ann Kirkpatrick (23%). These results show the highly competitive nature of the Democratic primary, and despite her high-profile and well-financed statewide candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2nd District Democrats have not embraced Kirkpatrick. The contest is very much a two-person race, as the other candidates generate only mid-single digit support.

Heinz doubles his initial lead over Kirkpatrick after voters hear positive profile statements about both candidates. After learning more positive information about the candidates’ backgrounds, including their professional experience, Heinz increases his vote by 13 points and moves to an eight-point advantage (40%-32%) over Kirkpatrick.

The survey data also show significant primary voter concern about many aspects of Kirkpatrick’s record. Survey respondents were read a series of descriptive phrases, and were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who matched such a description. As Figure 3 shows, votes for Congressional Republicans’ legislation to cut Medicare and the support for Bush-era tax cuts elicited severe negative reactions-- more than eight in ten Democratic primary voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate-- like Kirkpatrick-- who took those positions. Voters also responded negatively to the idea that a candidate failed to vote on the DREAM Act, as six in ten (62%) said they would be less likely to vote for that person for Congress. Voters in the survey also reacted negatively to Kirkpatrick’s having received an “A” rating from the NRA.

Meanwhile, Kirkpatrick made such an ass out of herself at the last forum that she's started skipping subsequent ones... just like Martha McSally, the Republican incumbent does. What a clown. She's probably hoping the New Dems, the DCCC and EMILY's List will get her through. Meanwhile Heinz has pledged to voters that if he's elected he will join the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The DCCC is Petrified The Parkland Students Are Going To Find Out About Ann Kirkpatrick's Record On Guns

DCCC endorsed NRA ally Ann Kirkpatrick instead of any of the progressives in AZ-02

Arizona's second district is one of the most competitive in the country. McCain beat Obama 50-49% and Romney beat him 50-48%. But then Hillary beat Trump 49.6% to 44.7%. In 2015 the PVI was R+3. Now it's R+1. The district includes most of Tucson-- everything but the Latino neighborhoods in the west and southern parts of the city and the whole southeast corner of the state, bordering on New Mexico and Mexico. Although all of Cochise County is included in the district, virtually all of the voters live in much bluer Pima County.

Both parties' primaries for Congress this year are also very komptetibe, especially since incumbent Martha McSally decided to run for the open U.S. Seante seat. The 5 Republicans running are Lea Peterson, Danny Morales, Brandon Martin, Casey Welch and Marilyn Wiles. There are also 6 Democrats running: Matt Heinz, Ann Kirkpatrick, Billy Kovacs, Mary Matiella, Barbara Sherry, and Bruce Wheeler. (There may be 2 other candidates running as Democrats running as well, Yahya Yuksel and William Foster but no one seems to know for sure. The filing deadline is May 30for the August 28th primary.)

Saturday, the Democrats all attended the March for our Lives rallies in either Tucson, except Barbara Sherry who went to the rally in Sierra Vista, while all the Republicans shared a stage at a candidates forum in private club, the Mountain Oyster Club, charging $7.50 to get in. Reporters were banned.

As of the December 31 FEC reporting deadline, the only Republican who had raised any significant money was Peterson ($218,266). Three Democrats had raised serious money: Kirkpatrick ($749,533), Heinz ($343,119) and Matiella ($151,425).

Platform-wise, all the Democrats are in sync on most issues, although Kirkpatrick, the most conservative of the 6, opposes Medicare-for-All. She's also a flip-floppy candidate who changes her mind to please whomever she's speaking to. She went from being one of the NRA's strongest allies in Congress-- keynoting their events and earning an "A"-- to claiming she now opposes them. Many Arizonans remember that Kirkpatrick was a co-sponsor for the National Right-to-Carry Reciprocity Act which allows those authorized to carry firearms in their home state to travel with their weapons. The DCCC has endorsed her. They always pick the most conservative candidate in contested races. Funny how their Red tie Blue page on Kirkpatrick doesn't say a word about her record as an NRA ally. Don't Democratic voters have a right to know?



There is no other Democrat running in AZ-02 who could have ever said this except Kirkpatrick:

"I am not going to allow Washington to ignore the values of Arizonans and the traditions of four generations of my family in District One, and I am proud to be pushing back against the federal government to stop our Constitutional rights from being infringed. Every time the anti-gun rights groups propose legislation that restricts our freedoms, I am going to make sure they know millions of Americans will fight them every inch of the way."

Nor this-- when she welcomed the NRA, which she referred to "one of the country’s oldest continuously operating civil liberties organizations," to Phoenix:

"As a gun owner myself, I firmly believe in the right of all Americans to keep and bear arms, and I am proud that my state is hosting the group that has protected that right for 138 years. This is a chance for Arizonans to show our nation’s leaders we will not let them take away our freedoms... People in Washington need to stop undermining the Second Amendment. That’s why I took on the Attorney General for his proposal to ban so-called 'assault weapons.' I will continue to work vigilantly to maintain and protect our Second Amendment rights against every challenge they face."

This is a truly disgusting person whose hands are dripping in the blood of school children. And Kirkpatrick is a carpetbagging careerist from the northern part of the state who has one of the most vile spam campaigns of any candidate for Congress in the whole country-- just an unrelenting shit-stream of banal, insipid and utterly insincere e-mails every single day. Yesterday, Sunday, was not exception:

I don’t have the words to describe just how grateful I am to have your support. We’re already being called one of the top 10 House races to watch by the Washington Post AND we’re one of four must-win seats for Democrats. And it’s only March!

I’ve seen all the birthday love from this past week. So many of you chipped in-- it truly warms my heart.

As we begin the second half of our campaign and march to November, I’m excited to see what we will accomplish together.

Mary Matiella and Matt Heinz are both far better candidates and either would make a better member of Congress. When we spoke with Mary recently she told us that "The DCCC is right about AZ-02 being a great pickup opportunity but they're wrong if they think an establishment/corporate Dem is the way to win. Southern Arizonans are a fiercely independent bunch and ultimately it's the voters, not the establishment who will decide who best represents their values." She followed with a statement for DWT readers about her stand on immigration reform:

I'm sick and tired of the Trump-McSally machine demonizing our immigrant communities to score political points with their most narrow-minded supporters. We are a nation of immigrants and dehumanizing communities of color in the name of border security is wrong. Militarizing our border sends the wrong message to the world and is an ineffective strategy for dealing with border security.

What I believe is simple: secure the border at the border. We need more Customs Officers at the ports of entry, rather than more agents combing the desert. Over 80% of the narcotics and violent criminals that come across our border do so through our ports of entry. And that's where we need to focus resources. Not miles away at checkpoints the narcos and the coyotes know how to avoid. And, $1.6 billion budgeted for border walls-- what a waste of money!

I believe in comprehensive immigration reform that includes protecting DREAMers, providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers, and reducing the current visa backlog. Breaking up families, racially profiling in our communities, and strong-arm tactics are morally repugnant practices that only serve to divide our community.

This issue is deeply personal to me. I am a Latina who grew up in southern Arizona. Many members of my family, including my husband were born on the other side of the line. We must do better to deal with the economic and humanitarian issues along our border.

Florida Republican David Jolly: "Is the Republic Safer If Democrats Take Over The House In 2018?"

One of the worst of the 2016 Democratic freshmen-- worst in terms of his GOP-aligned voting record-- is Charlie Crist, former Republican, former governor of Florida, current terrible congressman from St Petersburg. He won last year by beating incumbent David Jolly 184,693 (51,9%) to 171,149 (48.1%). Each raised and spent around $2,000,000 on their campaigns, although the DCCC and their aligned House Majority PAC dumped another $2.5 million into the race, while there was no counter-balance from the NRCC for Jolly. Meanwhile, Crist immediately joined the Blue Dogs and New Dems, the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, and quickly earned an overall "F" from ProgressivePunch for his decidedly right-of-center voting record. Charlie Crist now has the worst vote score of any Democratic freshman-- 43.10-- and the only Democrats with worse scores-- in order of bad to worse-- are Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN), Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX) and Kyrsten Sinema (Blue Dog-AZ), 3 Democrats who Ryan can always depend on to support the Republican agenda in nearly everything. I don't think Jolly is seriously considering a rematch in FL-13. Crist, who spends virtually all his time sucking up to corporate donors and lobbyists, has already raised $1,625,562.44 for 2018.

Meanwhile, Jolly has become a regular MSNBC contributor. Last night be was on Lawrence O'Donnell's show, the highlight of which was when he admitted that the country would be better off if the Democrats were to win back the House in 2018. "The Republican Party," he said, "never really recovered and found their footing from the emergence of the Tea Party, from the emergence of the likes of Sarah Palin, that has now manifested in the likes of Steve Bannon and Donald Trump. What is different now is that we have a president who’s known to be unstable. We have a president who’s known to be risky when it comes to matters of national security... I’ll be honest with you: Personally, as a Republican, in the past few weeks I’ve wondered, 'Is the Republic safer if Democrats take over the House in 2018?'" It wouldn't surprise me if Jolly winds up in Kenosha at some point during 2018, campaigning for Randy Bryce!

Nor is Jolly the only one with thoughts like that. Early this morning, CNN released a poll by SSR. When asked, "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district," 54% of registered voters say Democrats and just 38% say Republicans. 98% of Democrats favor Democrats while only 88% of Republicans say they prefer a Republican. More Independents also say they will vote for a Democrat.

It looks to me that at this point the only thing that could hold back the Democratic wave is the venal and well-practiced incompetence of the DCCC, an organization that embodies the concept of habitual failure. And they're up to their losing tricks again-- picking conservative GOP-lite candidates in race after race across the country, flying in the race of the progressive energy that has swept the nation. Yesterday, I spoke with Dr. Matt Heinz, a progressive running against centrist Republican Martha McSally in Arizona's ultimate swing district, AZ-02 (Tucson). After Pelosi and DCCC chairman Ben Ray Lujan decided ultra conservative New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick (from northern Arizona) should be the candidate against McSally, many in the Tucson area are left wondering if the Democratic Party is worth supporting at all. Heinz: "Only Southern Arizonans can choose who represents them, and Ann Kirkpatrick's record against DACA kids, against clean energy, and in favor of the NRA, assault weapons and high-capacity magazines will prove problematic. Too much hangs in the balance in this election."

Hillary Back On The Campaign Trail?

This morning I mentioned in passing that candidates have been clamoring for visits to their districts from candidates with brands that voters admire-- Bernie, first and foremost, but also Elizabeth Warren in a major way and a small number of House members who have been prominent in Resistance against Trump, Ted Lieu, for example. But no one wants public events in their districts with congressional big shots like Pelosi, Hoyer, Crowley, Lujan or Wasserman Schultz... nor with Hillary Clinton. Right after I finished writing that, The Hill published a piece by Amie Parnes, Hillary Clinton looks for her role in midterms, asserting that some candidates would like to have Hillary doing events in their districts. Most of them are Republicans eager to motivate their own base. As for Democrats? Maybe some Blue Dogs and the Wall Street-owned and operated New Dems, but no real Democrats that I could find.

Of course, as always with Clinton, it's all about her, not anyone else. She wants to play a role but isn't sure what the role will be. She started a PAC-- sucking money out of the system-- that she claims she'll use for campaigns. Rake-offs and "expenses" from those kinds of vanity efforts are just short of being criminal. "She also is looking," wrote Parnes, "at the House districts she won in last year’s presidential contest against Donald Trump as part of an autopsy of her failed campaign, according to two sources who have spoken to the former Secretary of State." These are the districts:

We reached out to candidates-- some who have declared and some who haven't in almost all 23 districts. Very few wanted to talk about it on the record. Kia Hamadanchy, who's running for the CA-45 seat Mimi Walters is holding, was the first. "Orange County," he told me, "is the key to the next house majority for Democrats and unless we win all 4 of these seats we are going to continue to be in the minority. Hillary Clinton helped demonstrate that this is not the same old conservative Orange County that everyone thinks it is and whether its Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, or another national Democrat leader out here campaigning, the most important thing is that the national party continues to invest the attention and resources we need to win these seats."

Michael Hepburn is the progressive candidate contesting the Miami-Dade seat Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is giving up. It's the deep blue South Florida district Debbie Wasserman Schultz has help keep in Republican hands for over a decade-- and it's the GOP-held district Hillary won most overwhelmingly, clobbering Trump by nearly 20 points! Michael was happy to go on the record with this statement:

I personally do not have an issue with receiving support from Hillary Clinton after we win this Democratic nomination. I actually voted for Senator Sanders in the presidential primary-- since I felt that this country needed something different to push us forward and some of his policy perspectives closely resembled my point of view. However, I’m about people over politics and I wake up every day aspiring to inspire others to believe in their dreams and goals. So as long as she’s comfortable with knowing that I am running to be a champion for public education, healthcare, and economic justice for all-- I have no problems with receiving her support.

Across the board among candidates enthusiasm for Hillary coming into the districts in person was... muted. I didn't bring up Bernie or Elizabeth Warren to anyone but many of the candidates took the initiative of bringing one or both of them up-- and almost everyone said they would want Obama campaigning for them. One candidate in a district Hillary won narrowly said he hopes she "stays away and sends money... She's a lightning rod for negativity and she's yesterday's news... She won this district but an awful lot of people didn't vote for her as much as they voted against Trump. She was the lesser-of-two evils" in a lot of voters' minds. They did pick the lesser evil but no one in [deleted] wants to see her again anytime soon." One of the candidates in John Culberson's district told me, again, off-the-record, that "this is not a district where having Hillary here would help; unlike say Ileana's, where she won by double digits. She barely scraped by in this one!" Another Texas candidate was much harsher: "She'd muddle the message in a bad way. We're out here pushing a very clear message on climate, jobs, and health care. I don't know what she could add, given her slowness in coming our way on those issues. She will fire up a certain section of the base, sure, but no one has suggested in any precinct in any county that I try to bring her in."

Another candidate in a fiercely contested primary isn't interested in seeing her show up in his district and wouldn't invite her. "Totally off the record," he said, "I think it's probably a bad idea. Obama would be a different story as would Bernie. I just am not sure people have a stomach for relitigating 2016."

One of the top Orange County candidates told me, off the record that "she wouldn't be my first choice (I'd rather have Bernie or Obama). Hillary and the Clintons in general represent a different era and a different Democratic party, which I don't really identify with. She's also just generally been too hawkish and overly cautious for my taste. I also just have the sense that she's had her moment and as a party it's time for new faces a new generation of leadership. Now with all the said she did win this district and the 3 other OC ones and the only reason [the DCCC] is actually trying to contest these seats is for that reason. I don't think having her out here to campaign with me would hurt me in the way that having Trump out here campaign for [the GOP incumbent] would hurt them."

And two more off-the-record candidate comments: "I would prefer we move forward as a party and she just focus on fundraising. I am not sure she helps bring in any new voters. Those who like her are going to turn out anyways. My campaign is all about next generation leadership, which runs counter to how people feel about her."

And... "I really think she would do more harm than good but I think that should stay off record. You can quote me anonymously if you want but my take is that so many people voted for her in districts like mine not because they liked her but because it was between her and Trump and most rational people felt like she was the lesser of two evils. Next year it won't be about that and she has so much baggage attached to her that I personally think she should just stay out of it. She won't sway people towards me and there is a good chance she would push others away... especially people on the Bernie side or Republicans we are able to bring over."

Parnes:

Democrats are focused on the Golden State as they seek to win back the House majority.

[Wretchded, crooked Blue Dog] Ellen Tauscher-- a Clinton ally and former California congresswoman-- along with a longtime aide Katie Merrill, have started a super PAC focused on seven of the so-called “split districts” in that state that voted for Clinton but backed a Republican candidate for the House.

Democrats are still mapping out a game plan for 2018 along with a message for their rudderless party. But another Clinton confidant said part of the plan might be to have Clinton campaign for candidates in the places where she won.

“No one can argue that Clinton helping in those areas wouldn't be helpful,” the confidant said. “That is a priority for her.”

If Clinton hits the campaign trail, Republicans are ready to pounce. They say they would welcome Clinton's presence on the stump because it would help GOP candidates.

"For 30 years, Hillary Clinton has essentially been Old Faithful for Republican candidates," said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist. "Her continues prominence only helps GOP candidates with an electorate that historically is more favorable than what they faced in the last presidential election.

"The more Clinton weighs in and tries to tell voters "I'm baaaack," the more Republicans will tell her to keep on trucking," Heye continued.

Still, Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist, added that Clinton, “could have a real voice in these places, absolutely.”

“She can go into those districts and make a case that there is an opportunity to do a course correction and do it in a fairly compelling way,” Lehane said, particularly if Democrats strengthen their message and give voters a reason to vote for them.

In May, during a question and answer session at the Code Conference, an event focused on tech, media and politics, Clinton indicated her focus is on winning those House seats for her party.

“Everything will change if we win in 2018,” she said at the conference. “We have to flip 24 seats. I won 23 districts that have a Republican Congress member, seven of them are in California.

“If we can flip those, if we can go deeper into where I did well, where we can get good candidates, I think flipping the House is certainly realistic. It’s a goal that we can set for ourselves,” she continued.

Even staunch Clinton supporters say that while there is room for her to play a role, she also needs to leave room for new leaders to emerge.

Garry Mauro, a longtime friend of the Clintons who led Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign effort in Texas, thinks the House can be won with the help of the Longhorn state, where there are three “split” districts.

But he doesn’t want Clinton to be front and center.

“Would she be well received? Of course, she would be. But we’re not going to win these races because Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi comes to the state and campaigns,” Mauro said. “We’re going to win it because we represent new leadership and new ideas.

“I think Secretary Clinton has got to define her role in American politics and she can play a real role in helping the Democratic Party but…we need new leadership,” Mauro added. “She can play a heck of a role. She just can’t play the dominant role.”

Republicans have signaled they intend to link every Democrat running for the House next year to longtime Democratic leader and former Speaker Pelosi (Calif.), arguing a vote for the local Democrat would put Pelosi in charge.

It’s an argument many Democrats are wary of, as it was used successfully against Jon Ossoff-- the promising Democratic candidate who lost a special election in Georgia last month.

Merrill, who started “Fight Back California” together with Tauscher, said there is a role Clinton can play when it comes to driving turnout among Democrats and the ability to raise money for Democratic candidates.

“Midterm elections are notorious for low turn out and the ability to raise money-- those are the two places Democrats will have trouble in the midterms,” Merrill said, adding that Clinton could contribute by doing digital ads and social media outreach along with tapping into her vast Rolodex of donors.

But Merrill said the California races in particular are going to be “won on local issues” by talking to the voters about the records of the incumbents.

“I think it would be a mistake for any campaign to nationalize these elections,” she added. “It can’t be about Trump or the 2016 election. It’s gotta be about these local issues.”

Merrill said she expects Clinton to remain “an active part” of the Democratic Party.

“I imagine she’ll only continue that level of activity,” she said.

Let's look at the last district on the list, AZ-02, a quintessential swing district that includes most of Tucson, though not the Hispanic west and south sides. Obama narrowly missed winning both times he ran-- by about 1%-- and Trump lost to Hillary by almost 5 points, 49.6% to 44.7%. While Hillary was winning, Republican incumbent Martha McSally was beating Democrat Matt Heinz decisively, 179,806 (57%) to 135,873 (43%). McSally spent a massive $7,826,194 to Heniz's $1,576,119. Ryan's SuperPAC spent $662,677 bolstering McSally while Pelosi and the DCCC refused to spend a dime on Heinz, leaving him twisting in the hot sun. He's running again-- as are half a dozen other Democratic candidates-- Billy Kovacs, Will Foster, Jeff Latas, Mary Sally Matiella, Charlie Verdin and a right-wing corporate shill the DCCC is importing into the district, Ann Kirkpatrick, who has a long history of losing elections by trying to appeal to Republicans while alienating Democrats and progressive independents.

Heinz was willing to talk on the record. He told us that he's hearing from his "patients, my colleagues and many southern Arizona politicos that they are sick of the same cookie cutter career politicians spouting perfectly crafted poll-tested and focus-grouped talking points. That strategy has failed us-- most recently we saw that in GA-06 and SC-05. The money and DCCC went for Ossoff (a very talented man, btw) and totally neglected the genuine progressive Dem in SC-05 who came within 2700 votes of an amazing upset!

"We need candidates who are authentic and who have real connections to their communities. Most importantly we have to listen to the voters. That's the theme of my announcement video which you can see at heinzforarizona.com. When a hugely Republican district almost votes for a soft-spoken progressive tax attorney, that's because he was connecting with people and listening to their hopes and fears.

"I think we can learn a lot from these recent events and I know that in my own campaign I'm looking to my volunteers and precinct committee folks and everyday southern Arizonans for their input, not just a few expensive surveys. I'm also hearing every day from my patients about current events-- something I have never before experienced! People are very engaged and activated even now!

"As for Hillary helping out House candidates, that is very gracious of her to offer. We certainly don't agree on every issue. But I will say that she conceded without tipping the nation into civil unrest-- something that I believe she alone had the capacity to do, sadly. She also sent me a personal letter expressing how she was honored to share the ballot with me in 2016. It was an unexpectedly warm and personal gesture. I wish more people could have seen that side of her in the lead up to the Nov 8 election last year. It reminded me of VP Al Gore on SNL post the Nov 2000 election. He got into a hot tub and was absolutely hilarious! It was a funny and engaging more human side of him that we didn't see almost ever ahead of that fateful election.

"I believe that Hillary could be a very positive force in some of the districts she won substantially (south Florida, maybe Issa's seat in the San Diego area), especially with the buyer's remorse going on presently. That said, she remains a highly polarizing celebrity and some districts like mine are so evenly divided that such an endorsement could ultimately fuel turnout for my opponent who is suffering from very low approval (40%!!) because McSally could then start running ads against Hillary instead of me.

"For my part, I plan to stay focused on southern Arizona families. If elected, I will be tasked with making government work better for them. That is my passion and therefore will continue to be my highest priority and focus."

Right now, polling shows Heinz leading McSally 48-44%, but that will all go up in smoke if the DCCC brings in their losing candidate from across the state, Kirkpatrick, to shit all over the field and guarantee another term for McSally. It would be a classic DCCC/EMILY's List move, the exact kind of move that have turned so many grassroots Democrats against both organizations.

Last Night's Primary Results In Arizona-- Say Bye-By To Quayle's Son

Ben Quayle, last night's biggest loser

“If you know Middle Easterners, a lot of them, they look Mexican or they look, you know, like a lot of people in South America: dark skin, dark hair, brown eyes. And they mix. They mix in. And those people, their only, their only goal in life is to, to cause harm to the United States. So why do we want them here, either legally or illegally?...They have found prayer rugs. They have found copies of the Koran. So that tells you this is not just poor illegals that are trying to come to this country and find work. It's bigger than that."

-Tea Party Republican AZ-03 nominee Gabriela Saucedo Mercer

Arizona had some late primaries yesterday. The most anticipated race was between very wealthy right-wing crackpot Wil Cardon (who spent $6,699,078 on the primary, $6,185,768 from his personal bank account) and right-wing crackpot Jeff Flake (biggest donor this year was Club For Growth- $598,334) to see who would go up against former Bush Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) for Jon Kyl's open Senate seat. As expected, Flake, a Mormon from Snowflake, won-- but he won way bigger than most people anticipated, just crushing Cardon, 69-21%. Flake had to spend $4,334,556 battling off the annoying Cardon and is left with $1,705,361 (as of August 8). Carmona has $1,754,794 on hand. And neo-Nazi Russell Pierce's political comback was thwarted when he lost the race for a state senate seat (25th district) to Bob Worsley, 56-44%. Hopefully, we won't be hearing from him again.

The House races worth mentioning:

AZ-01- pitted DCCC corporate hack Ann Kirkpatrick against progressive champion Wenona Benally Baldenegro. Undermined by the DCCC and the local Democratic Party, Baldenegro was grievously outspent by Kirkpatrick $626,950 to $101,038. Baldenegro managed to still get 36% of the vote.

AZ-02- ConservaDem Ron Barber, who was elected to full the remainder of Gabby Giffords term a few weeks ago, was given the Democratic nomination, despite having voted with the Republicans to gut a full package of environmental laws... and Eric Holder. He beat state Rep. Matt Heinz, 82-18%, which is what polls suggested. After the votes were counted last night Heinz had a great attitude going forward: “Tonight does not mark the end of my lifelong commitment to public service. I will find ways to continue to stay active in Tucson, and we will return for the 2014 congressional race. We must continue to laying the ground work.”

AZ-03- Corporate interests put up a couple of shills to run against Raúl Grijalva. One, Amanda Aguirre had her campaign directed by a former McCain dirty tricks operative. Raúl beat them both, with two-thirds of the vote. He'll now go up against racist sociopath Gabriela Saucedo Mercer, quoted at the top of this post. When shown the quote Raúl seemed taken aback: "This is reckless hate speech, and I call on everyone who has endorsed Gabriela Mercer to withdraw their support immediately. This is not a he-said/she-said question of interpretation. Her comments are reprehensible and deserve condemnation from every quarter. Anyone who continues to support her campaign should be asked whether they want someone with her views in Congress." Fellow over-the-top racists Jan Brewer and Secretary of State Ken Bennett are sticking with their whack-a-doodle candidate... of course.

AZ-05- In the GOP primary, mainstream conservative, Matt Salmon, beat the far right kook, Kirk Adams, who Sarah Palin has been howling about all week-- 54-46%.

AZ-06- In the incumbent vs incumbent contest pitting Boehner/Cantor kiss ass Ben Quayle against teabagger David Schweikert, the Establishment lost out to the grassroots freak as pathetic ex-pornographer Quayle saw his pretensions of a political career end, 53-47%. Quayle spent $1,537,407 and Schweikert spent $1,289,381. Maybe it was because he was one of the drunk congressmen swimming naked in Lake Tiberias but he had endorsements from almost every GOP hack imaginable-- both McCain and Kyl, Huckabee and cloddish freshmen Sean Duffy (a former soap opera star) and Tim Giffin, a Rove protégé.

AZ-09- In this new blue-leaning district three Democrats faced off, New Dem Andrei Cherny and two progressive state senators, Kyrsten Sinema and David Schapira. Progressives generally supported Schapira but Sinema had a big push from EMILY's List (which put $100,507 into the race) and the Victory Fund. Sinema spent $592,909. Cherny spent $572,889 and Schapira spent $223,826. Each of the progressive candidates topped Cherny, despite the help he got from Bill Clinton. In the end it was Sinema- 42%, Schapira- 31% and Cherny- 27%.

There was also a runoff for the Oklahoma Blue Dog seat (OK-02), which pitted a right-wing Blue Dog, Rob Wallace, against a crazed religious fanatic, Wayne Herriman. Rob Wallace won, 25,073 (57%) to 18,901 (43%) and is likely to be a contender for Dan Boren's record as the most reactionary, pro-GOP Democrat in the House. Let's see how fast "ex"-Blue Dog Steve Israel puts him on Red-to-Blue.

UPDATE: So, Can Carmona Win The Arizona Senate Seat?

The DSCC sure says they think so. They were out this morning with a memo outlining exactly why:

Now Congressman Flake faces a much stronger foe – a decorated Special Forces combat veteran who was homeless as a child, went to college and medical school on the GI Bill, and became a trauma surgeon, a deputy sheriff and eventually the Surgeon General of the United States. The most recent public poll showed that the race is tied at 38 percent each.

The primary forced Congressman Flake to spend heavily and exposed his long history as a lobbyist turned career politician.

• Carmona now leads Flake in the money race. Flake spent heavily in the primary and has lost what was once a significant cash advantage. Now Carmona holds a slight cash advantage over Flake-- $1.75 million to $1.71 million.

• Flake was badly damaged by Wil Cardon’s personal attacks. Cardon spent over $9 million in the primary, the majority of which was spent on TV ads attacking Jeff Flake for being an insider and career politician. Polls show the attacks worked and drove up Flake’s negatives significantly. While a PPP survey from May showed Flake with a net favorable rating of +6 (33-27), a July PPP survey showed him with a negative net favorable rating of -7 (30-37). The July survey also showed that despite Carmona’s low name ID, the general election contest was tied at 38.

• To win the primary, Flake staked out policy positions far out of the mainstream. Flake’s foolish calls to repeal the 17th amendment and eliminate the Department of Education will be liabilities in the general election. These positions underscore the extreme nature of Jeff Flake’s views which will turn off independent voters.

Moving forward, this election will be about three key issues-– seniors, women, and veterans-– and the choice could not be any clearer.

• Congressman Flake’s positions on Medicare and Social Security will hurt him with seniors. Flake’s anti-Medicare and anti-Social Security views are well documented. Carmona’s internal polling shows that voters overwhelmingly oppose a candidate who “supported privatizing Medicare” by a large margin-– 50-29. The Republican attacks on Medicare and the looming threat they pose are only amplified with Paul Ryan on the ticket. In 2008, exit polling showed voters over the age of 50 made up 45% of the electorate.

• Congressman Flake has an extreme, anti-woman record that will surprise people. Jeff Flake wants to eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood, allow employers to deny women contraception coverage from their healthcare plans, and opposes a pay equity law that helps ensure employers pay women the same as men for equal work. When voters learn of Flake’s extreme record 49% of voters are “much less” likely to support him.

• Congressman Flake has repeatedly voted against veterans benefits even while America was fighting two wars. Flake voted for budgets that cut billions from health, education and job training for veterans-- and even voted against bonuses for American soldiers. He even voted against the new post-9/11 GI Bill and opposed job training for veterans. A majority of voters polled (52%) say they are “much less” likely to support Flake once they learn he consistently voted to cut veterans’ benefits.

These are devastating vulnerabilities for any candidate. But Congressman Flake does not face any Democratic candidate; he faces an American hero.

Richard Carmona’s life story sets up an extremely favorable matchup with a career politician and former lobbyist like Congressman Flake. With polling already showing the race tied, the dynamics of this toss-up race clearly favor Rich Carmona heading into the general election.