Finding the Greater Fool — The Elite Logic Behind "Going Over the Climate Cliff"

The "Seneca Cliff" is the point at which a system that grew large slowly, starts to collapse rapidly. This is the way the 1929 stock market and 2008 banking assets collapsed (image source). Any complex system can go over the Seneca Cliff, says climate scientist Ugo Bardi. (Can you guess why he's studying it?)

by Gaius Publius

I won't belabor this here, since I have a longer piece in draft that makes the same point much more directly. But the basic idea is this: Climate people — activists, scientists, concerned citizens, "woke" politicians — think that the elite drive to march human civilization over the climate cliff is, to put it frankly, "nuts." Irrational. Or "insufficiently self-interested," to put it much too mildly.

I've begun to think differently though. I've begun to think that elites who are driving us over the cliff are not at all irrational. Someone who's had that same thought as well is climate scientist Ugo Bardi, who offers a lay person's view of much of his current work at The Seneca Effect.

Bardi's goal is to study, in his words, "why complex systems fail," and further, why they often fail rapidly. For more about Bardi's work on rapid system collapse, see "The Seneca Effect: Why decline is faster than growth." It explains phenomena like those detailed here — as well as what might soon happen to Uber (see "Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Ten: The Uber Death Watch Begins"). The Seneca Effect is named after the Roman philosopher Seneca, who wrote that "increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."

The Maldive Islands and Climate Change

Now to my own point. In a recent post, Dr. Bardi looked at the Maldive Islands, one of the most seriously threatened inhabited places in the world when it comes to climate change. According to the IPCC, 75% of the Maldive Islands could be under water by 2100.

Yet here's what the rulers of the Maldives plan to do — stimulate development:

Full Guardian article here. Boggles the mind, doesn't it?

Actually it doesn't. Dr. Bardi:

Is this an epidemics of brain disease? Or do the Gods really drive crazy those whom they want to destroy?

Maybe. But there is also a perfectly rational explanation for what's happening. Imagine that you are part of the elite of the Maldives. And imagine that you are smart enough to understand what's going on with the Earth's climate. As things stand today, it is clear that it is too late to stop a burst of global warming that will push temperatures so high that nothing will save the Maldives islands. Maybe not next year but in a few decades, it is nearly certain.

So, given the situation, what is the rational thing for you to do? Of course, it is to sell what you can sell as long as you can find a sucker who will buy. Then you can say good riddance to those who remain.

In the case of the Maldives, Dr. Bardi concludes (emphasis mine): "What we are seeing, therefore, is a game in which someone will be left holding the short end of the dynamite stick. When the elites of the Maldives will have left for higher grounds, the poor will be stuck there. For them, the Seneca Cliff ends underwater."

This is a developer's dream — own something worthless, enhance it enough to sell at a much higher price, then leave. "Then you can say good riddance to those who remain."

Can you guess where this logic leads us with respect to the planet? Not interstellar travel for the elites, but something else. If you still haven't figured out what "then leave" means for them, stay tuned.

GP
 

The UN Summit, Climate Change, and Tyranny

by Daniel Maxson

As we all know by now, the United Nations met on Tuesday to discuss climate change and the responsibility of every country to do their part in reducing emissions.

If you haven't heard or read President Obama's address to the assembly, you should. You can take a moment to click that link to go straight to the original post with the transcript of the President's speech if you haven't already read it.

He has a number of good things to say about America's international reputation and our duty as global citizens. He also mentions that we've put 80 billion dollars into a greener America. China, however, in some eyes, has surpassed the US in demonstrated intent to cut their emissions. Japan has also committed and is putting political pressure on the United States to follow their lead:



But perhaps even more interesting is this article from the Times Online. The article's short and worth a read in its entirety, but I want to focus on the speech delivered by Mohammed Nasheed, the President of the Maldives:

“Once or twice a year we are invited to attend an important climate change event such as this one-- often as a keynote speaker,” Mohammed Nasheed told world leaders at the UN headquarters in New York.

“On cue, we stand here and tell you just how bad things are. We warn you that unless you act quickly and decisively, our homeland and others like it will disappear before the rising sea, before the end of this century. “We in the Maldives desperately want to believe that one day our words will have an effect, and so we continue to shout them even though, deep down, we know that you are not really listening,” he said.

This blog is about the opposition of tyranny, and I think we should ponder
Mr. Nasheed's point that nobody listens to small, relatively powerless
countries like his. [His plea reminded me of Haile Selasie's before the League of Nations in 1936, which also fell on deaf ears.] It's politically popular to support certain high-profile countries like Darfur.

And it's an excellent display of humanity on our part to speak up for the voiceless in countries like those. But meanwhile, the Maldives are sinking into the sea and we are largely turning a deaf ear to them. All while telling them that they must cut back on emissions while we lag behind China.

By that I don't mean to belittle Obama's commitment to green alternatives. He has been a long-time proponent of environmental responsibility. And a great part of the struggle in turning America green lies not with him, but with other politicians who have a vested interest in pushing an industrial agenda at the expense of environmental responsibility. However, look back at his speech. You'll notice he said:

"America has acted unilaterally, without regard for the interests of others."

That's a good summary of how America has come to be seen as an international tyrant. I believe the President when he says he's serious about turning that impression around. One of the best ways to prove we're serious about our global citizenship is to give an ear to the disenchanted citizens of the Maldives and take their pleas for help seriously.

Even though no single country can turn around the trend of climate change, we can extend help to the people of the Maldives in their relocation efforts. When we can put effort and capital into helping people without some kind of catch or expectation of repayment, we will make enormous strides in proving to the world that we aren't the tyrants they think we are.

---------

Daniel Maxson works for Newsy.com although the opinions expressed in this post are solely his and are in no way necessarily representative of Newsy. Daniel is also a student at the Missouri School of Journalism.