NY-26: Kathy Hochul, The One In Blue, Ahead By A Length In The Final Stretch

Par for the course: No good choices in NY-26

Once the Rapture passed us by, it was time to get back to watching the special election in western New York that's building up to Tuesday-- and with heavy national implications. Most to lose: Paul Ryan, whose plan to destroy Medicare has become the #1 issue of the race. If the GOP can't hold onto this profoundly Republican district panic will set in among dozens of Republican congressmen who were tricked into voting for Ryan's hated, dystopian budget scheme-- "radical... right-wing social engineering," in the words of one Republican elder statesman. The latest polling-- from Siena-- was bad news for the Republicans, who have poured over three million dollars into efforts to hold onto a red, red seat.

Red, red seat? Well, yeah... even though the GOP's lunatic fringe gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino only polled 34% statewide last year, he had a landslide victory in NY-26-- 61% of the vote! And the district votes for Republicans in federal races as well. In 2000 Gore only got 44%. Kerry did a percent worse and Obama, while sweeping the rest of the state-- and the region-- was bested in NY-26 by McCain 52-46%, McCain's best performance in New York. And, Christopher Lee, the perverted millionaire teabagger, whose sex scandal forced him to resign triggering this special election, won with 74% just 6 months ago, the biggest victory for any Republican in New York state. Lee didn't fall below 70% in any of the district's 6 counties, even winning Niagara County-- where then-Democrat Jack Davis beat then-incumbent Tom Reynolds in 2004-- in a startling 25,570- 8,661 victory. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hochul is surging.

And what's different this week is the Ryan budget. Stupidly, Republican Jane Corwin, once favored to win in a walkaway, said she would have voted for it. And it turns Medicare into an inadequate voucher program that voters absolutely hate. Congress' Joint Economic Committee clearly laid out how harmful Ryan's plan would be for New York seniors. By 2022, under the current Medicare out-of-pocket expenses for the typical 65-year-old enrollee in New York would be $6,308.07, already considered high by many. Under Ryan's plan-- the one embraced by Corwin, the out-of-pocket expenses for a typical New York senior doubles to $12,826.26. That's an extra $6,518.20 annually. And what for? So the fabulously wealthy can pay even less taxes than they already do.

Earlier this month we talked about why I'm about as enthusiastic for a Hochul victory Tuesday as I am about my town's sports team winning a game or a tournament. Better the blue team than the red team... I guess. I was relieved that at least Hochul opposes the two corporate parties' NAFTA-like, job-destroying trade policies but I'll never trust any Democrat who seeks office by throwing a Democratic constituency under the bus by adopting Republican Party framing, the way Hochul has done in this campaign. If she wins Tuesday, I expect her to either be a Blue Dog or, more likely, just vote with them, pulling the Democratic caucus further to the right.

Former NY Blue Dog, Kirsten Gillibrand, was in Amherst campaigning with Hochul yesterday and Chuck Schumer is there this morning. Popular Governor Andrew Cuomo released an ad endorsing Hochul. And even the Tea Party candidate, multimillionaire Jack Davis, a lifelong Republican who brags he voted for every Republican president but who captured the Democratic nominations 3 times in the past, says his own polling shows Hochul ahead. (It also shows him in second place, beating Corwin. Watch the clip below.) Momentum is clearly in Hochul's camp, with voters determined to send Boehner and Cantor, each of whom has been to the district to campaign for Corwin, a clear message that they will not abide the Republican Party wrecking Medicare. Obama has been laying low-- either because of his own unpopularity in the district or because he doesn't want to anger Hispanic voters who know Hochul for her anti-immigrant demagoguery.



UPDATE: The Buffalo News Endorses Hochul

Virtually all the big newspapers in the district have come out for Hochul. The Buffalo News is the most influential. And, for an essentially conservative newspaper, they were brutal.

Hochul has a more rounded grasp on the role of government in the 21st century. She understands health care for seniors to be an appropriate federal issue, while Corwin does not. More conservative than even many Republicans in Western New York, Corwin holds a pinched view of Washington's role in public life, restricting it to issues such as defense, transportation and food safety.

In meeting with the Buffalo News editorial board, she didn't specifically say that issues such as health, education and the environment were inappropriate for government, but the implication was clear. She supports the Republican proposal for Medicare, which would turn it into a voucher system. To be sure, Medicare needs to be fixed to preserve it for future beneficiaries, but not this way.

...Both Corwin and Hochul have made an issue of the deficit, but Hochul's skills and record suggest a deeper understanding of the role of government in modern life. Changes need to be made, and soon. Hochul is the candidate with the best ability to push for those changes while guarding against an assault on the role of government itself.

Primary Day In New York-- And Six Other States

Howie drags another unsuspecting congressional candidate, Jon Powers, to a raw food restaurant

There are a seven states with primaries today, although New York's is the only one worth reporting on. A gaggle of greasy Republicans are fighting amongst each other to take on Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes in New Hampshire but Carol and Paul are expected to beat back whichever clown is nominated by the reactionaries. The gubernatorial primary in Delaware takes on some meaning because whoever wins the Democratic nod is likely to be appointing a U.S. Senator after November.

In New York, however, there really are some hot races. In the Staten Island/Brooklyn district (NY-13), the Democratic Establishment has gotten behind pro-war, pro-corporate, conservative shill Michael McMahon from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party while grassroots Democrats back Steve Harrison. According to this morning's CQPolitics "Harrison held Fossella to the lowest take of his congressional career, 57 percent, in 2006 but with the scandal surrounding Fossella and the subsequent chance to pick up the seat, Democrats turned to McMahon for the general election. McMahon reported raising $717,000 and had $413,000 on hand through Aug. 20, according to his pre-primary report, while Harrison raised $201,000 and had $45,000 on hand by the same date. The Republican primary, meanwhile, has turned nasty. Two candidates are competing for the party nomination: former state Rep. Robert Straniere and Staten Island GOP Finance Chair Jamshad Wyne. The district encompasses all of Staten Island and the southern tip of Brooklyn and both county Republican parties have endorsed Straniere. But Wyne has boosted his candidacy with $325,000 in self-loans, which puts him far ahead of Straniere in fundraising. Wyne raised $334,000 and had $203,000 on hand through Aug. 20 while Straniere raised $15,000 and had $12,000 on hand by the same date. The local Conservative Party favors McMahon but the state party overruled their attempt to endorse him. Instead the Conservatives are running their own far right lunatic fringe candidate, depriving the GOP of their line-- and likely to help the Democrat in November.

Up in the suburban/exurban area between Buffalo and Rochester (NY-26) the DCCC insiders and the grassroots are on the same side-- both backing Jon Powers against an extremely nasty and deranged Republican billionaire running as a Democrat, Jack Davis. Davis has spent $3.6 million on his campaign and, according to CQPolitics has no support whatsoever from the Democratic Party and is simply running a "sabotage campaign against Powers... bleeding him dry,” something which may well help Davis' old friends in the GOP come November.

In the Albany district, where Mike McNulty is one of the few Democrats retiring from Congress this year, the field is crowded and the campaign hasn't yielded much heat or light. Soundpolitic over at TheAlbanyProject has the best analysis I've seen and has come to the conclusion that Phil Steck is the best candidate.

There is also an outside chance that Kevin Powell will beat corrupt reactionary Democratic hack Edolphus Towns in Brooklyn. CQPolitics: "It will be Towns’ second tough challenge in a row after winning the 2006 Democratic primary with less than 50 percent of the vote over two little-known Democratic challengers. Towns was criticized by party leadership for failing to vote with the party, including a vote in support of the Central American Free Trade Agreement, which passed 217-215 but was unpopular with many top Democrats. Towns is favored to survive the primary; he has raised more than 10 times more money than Powell ($1.2 million to $100,000) and had seven times more cash on hand ($417,000 to $57,000) by Aug. 20."

And speaking of New York, Ed Koch, a posterboy for Democrats who have gone over to the Dark Side, has taken leave of his Republican allies and endorsed Obama. He says Palin is too scary for mainstream Americans to support the McCain-Palin ticket.

I have concluded that the country is safer in the hands of Barack Obama, leader of the Democratic Party and protector of the philosophy of that party. Protecting and defending the U.S. means more than defending us from foreign attacks. It includes defending the public with respect to their civil rights, civil liberties and other needs, e.g., national health insurance, the right of abortion, the continuation of Social Security, gay rights, other rights of privacy, fair progressive taxation and a host of other needs and rights.

If the vice president were ever called on to lead the country, there is no question in my mind that the experience and demonstrated judgment of Joe Biden is superior to that of Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin is a plucky, exciting candidate, but when her record is examined, she fails miserably with respect to her views on the domestic issues that are so important to the people of the U.S., and to me. Frankly, it would scare me if she were to succeed John McCain in the presidency.

Patrick Murphy Is Looking For A Brother In Arms To Help Him End The War In Iraq

Last year Blue America helped elect Patrick Murphy to Congress. He's the first Iraq War vet to be elected to either House. Even if we haven't agreed with him on every issue that's come up, he's been golden on Iraq and has helped persuade wavering Democrats to support efforts to end the war. Today he was fighting a different kind of battle, blogging for Blue America-endorsed candidate Jon Powers over at Daily Kos. Patrick wants to see Jon in office for all the same reasons we do-- especially because he recognizes in Jon someone with proven leadership abilities.

In the Army, we have a saying: "Lead, follow, or get out of the way."

Jon proved himself on the battlefields of Iraq as a leader who won the respect, not only of those who served under him, but of his fellow Army officers as well.

His commanding officer praised Jon's "extraordinary management skills, leadership, and unmatched talent."

Jon is one battle buddy I need with me in Congress so together, we can lead the fight for the changes we need all across our great country.

...Jon Powers will fight to end business as usual in Washington so we can finally bring our troops home from Iraq, and bring our jobs home to America .

He will fight for energy independence and freedom from the special-interests down in Washington.

Jon Powers has assured me that his progressive values are real and are heartfelt and that he isn't going to get into Congress and turn into a Blue Dog or some other kind of tangential creature from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. His opponent in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, Jack Davis, switched parties and became a "Democrat" (of sorts) after he was personally slighted by Dick Cheney who was unwilling to bow and scrape when Davis dropped a bundle of cash on the GOP. He's the least qualified Democrat to run in a primary this year... anywhere. I wouldn't even wish him on Hoyer and Emanuel. If you want to give Jon Powers a hand, he can sure use it to stave off this multimillionaire self-funder. And here's the place.

New York Republicrat Jack Davis Accused Of Bribing Independence Party Officials To Get Their Election Line In November

It took Ted Stevens decades to get into the swing of accepting bribes from big companies in return for special legislative favors. Jack Davis isn't even waiting to get elected to get into the swing of things. In New York, Republican Jack Davis, may have switched parties in a fit of spoiled rage when Dick Cheney refused to meet with him, but his heart and soul-- or whatever right-wingers have instead of them-- are as Republican as Karl Rove's. Immediately after being thrown out of a Republican fundraiser-- he had donated $2,000-- Davis declared that he was a Democrat and, in revenge, ran for Congress against Tom Reynolds in 2004. Fined by the FEC for campaign irregularities, he poured $1.2 million of his own wealth into the race. He managed to get 44% of the vote and ran again in 2006 campaigning on a platform of hateful xenophobia. In that race he also managed to buy himself the nomination of the Independence Party (for a cool million dollars). And that brings us to why you're reading about Jack Davis today.

Apparently he decided to get himself the Independence Party nomination on the cheap this year. He's challenging Jon Powers for the Democratic nomination and Powers is expected to win handily against the very disliked Davis, regardless of all the money he's pumping into the race. His threat to run on the Independent line would give him the opportunity to wreak havoc on the electoral process in November. So, it appears, he set out to buy it again, although in a more direct way than last time. He's been surreptitiously paying off the wives of the Independence Party county chairmen. Like I said, the man changed his party registration but he's still a Republican at heart.

According to today's Buffalo News Davis has been bribing Independence Party officials through their wives.

Democratic congressional hopeful Jack Davis paid $5,000 each to the wives of the Monroe and Erie county party chairmen. Davis paid $5,000 to the wife of Monroe County Independence Chairman Rafael Colon (using her maiden name of Blanca Semidey) and $5,000 to a new corporation based in Florida and headed by Judith Orsini, wife of Erie County Independence Chairman Tony Orsini.

Davis and Orsini said the payments were for legitimate "consulting services."

After the story ran, Monroe's Independence leaders tried for eight days to track down Colon. According to interim Chairman Walter Schiemann, when Colon finally did acknowledge their calls, the leaders demanded his resignation for taking a "bribe."

"It's definitely a bribe-- absolutely," he told The News in a story published Tuesday.

Jon Powers is going to need all the help he can get to fight off this free-spending Republican disguised as a Democrat. He has been busy putting up fake Rovian web sites to slander Powers. Please consider donating to his campaign-- right here on our Blue America ActBlue page.

UPDATE: