Would You Like To Know If Candidates Will Back The Green New Deal BEFORE You Vote For Them?

Blue America's newest endorsee is Jason Butler, the progressive candidate taking on reactionary Trump enabler George Holding in a North Carolina red district (NC-02) that has started trending purple. Last cycle, Holding only eked out a bare 51.3% win-- in a district where Obama lost both times and where Trump beat Hillary by over 10 points! It's just a matter of time-- and Butler makes a good case for why that time is now.

Earlier in the week Jason shared some of his approach to the campaign with us. Since then he decided to tell his supporters about why battling the Climate Crisis is a major part of why he decided to run for Congress. "As a dad with three young kids, I think a lot about the kind of world my generation will pass on to the next," he wrote. "And as a pastor, it’s important to me to live my faith through good stewardship of our planet."

But as we watch the Amazon burn, see glaciers disappear, and face more and more extreme weather here in North Carolina, I’m deeply worried-- and I just can’t sit by and do nothing.

If the health of our environment wasn’t enough reason to take the climate crisis seriously, a dire warning from a UN expert has raised the stakes.

This human rights expert warns that the world is at risk of facing “climate apartheid,” where the wealthy and powerful pay to escape the worst effects of the crisis-- and undermine basic human rights and even the rule of law for hundreds of millions of people.

We have to act, friends. And we’re running out of time.

I’ve spent years organizing and advocating for justice. That’s shown me that you can only get so far when your representatives have a vested interest in defending the status quo.

Our current leaders are failing to meet the climate crisis with the urgency it demands. We need a new generation of leaders ready to fight for bold solutions like a Green New Deal. That’s why I’m running for Congress.

As Anthony Deutsch wrote yesterday, young Republicans are as worried about the Climate crisis as normal people are. "A growing majority of U.S. Republicans, especially younger voters, are worried that human behavior is damaging the planet, according to a survey of global attitudes to the environment conducted by an Amsterdam-based polling agency. The number of Republican voters aged 18-34 who are worried about the issue rose by 18 percentage points to 67%, said the poll, which also showed a 10 percentage point increase among all U.S. Republicans who said they tried 'to live eco-consciously... When looking deeper into the data it becomes clear that the highest rise in environmental concern (worldwide) is visible among younger Republicans,' said Glocalities pollster Martijn Lampert, who predicted that shifting views on the environment would influence the next U.S. election in 2020."

The DCCC and EMILY's List has each recruited a more conservative, establishment-type candidate to stop Jason. The DCCC found themselves a typical order-taker, a former Marine Corp officer who served the country in Iraq and Afghanistan. As we have seen this year, all of the former military recruits the DCCC sold us on in 2018 have turned out to be shills for the Democratic leadership-- NO INDEPENDENT THINKING among the whole lot of them. Frankly, I was shocked by it. And they're all a bunch of tepid conservatives afraid of bold ideas and afraid to lose their new prestigious jobs in Congress. It literally stunned me. Of the 94 Democrats who have signed on as co-sponsors to AOC's Green New Deal resolution so far-- not a single one was one of the military heroes the DCCC was pushing last cycle. That doesn't mean the DCCC recruit for NC-02 won't be the exception. But... a big clue is on his campaign website and what he says about policy positions: nothing, which is exactly what the DCCC tells it's sappy candidates to do. Nice photos of him and his attractive family though, and lots of meaningless cliches that say NOTHING about how someone is going to behave in Congress.

As for EMILY's List, they found a school board member with an even skimpier website than the one the military guy has! Look, please, if Democratic candidates are hiding their positions during the primary campaign, do you think we can expect bold, courageous action from them if they ever get into Congress? If so, it would be a first.

As for George Holding, he's begun acknowledging Climate Change... but he isn't fooling anyone about where his sympathies are regarding how to deal with it. There are few members of the House who are as corporately-motivated as George Holding. His positions are reflected in his League of Conservative Voters scorecard. They summed him up perfectly: "Rep. George Holding put polluters' agendas ahead of the health of North Carolinians, environmental protections and action on climate change."

We pretty much know exactly where Trump stands on the Climate Crisis and on all the issues, what his dark, toxic vision for America is and where he would bring the country if he is-- God help us-- reelected in 2020. Still, he's not going to speak the words on TV. Don't expect any 2020 Trump presidential debates. Impossible, you say? How many norms has Trump steamrolled right over and smashed to bits-- and with virtually no consequences whatsoever?

Three Stooges vs The Clown by Nancy Ohanian

Trump isn't able to form a coherent sentence, let alone debate any opponent. By labelling his Republican primary challengers as the Three Stooges, he has set the tone for refusing to debate former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld (R), former Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh (R) and former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford (SC). The only Democrat he is likely to debate would be the one pathetic specimen he could probably beat, doddering, deteriorating and already senile Joe Biden. Nothing would get Trump up on a debate stage with Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders-- or even well-practiced phonies like Kamala Harris or Mayo Pete.

Wooing Rural Voters In North Carolina With Progressive And Populist Policies-- Meet Jason Butler (NC-02)

Over the past two weeks I've talked to 7 new candidates running for Congress. One doesn't support Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, banning assault weapons or even raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour and I told her she was calling the wrong organization and to try the DCCC or EMILY's List. The others are being vetted. The easiest candidate to endorse though was Jason Butler, running in North Carolina’s 2nd district. Jason's a pastor in Wake County, North Carolina who sees the campaign as part of a journey to "recapture our moral courage and push back against the forces of fear that divide and dehumanize us."

I asked Jason to introduce himself by writing a guest post that encompasses his vision for this very tough campaign in a very tough district. That's below. Please read it and if you find it as inspiring as I did, consider contributing to Jason's grassroots campaign by clicking on the 2020 Blue America congressional thermometer on the right and donating what you can. But first I want to say a little something about NC-02. The gerrymandered district has a PVI of R+7 and Trump beat Hillary there 53.2% to 43.6%. The incumbent, George Holding (R), is a total Trump enabler who never strays from the party line. Last year, Holding didn't do that great-- just 51.3%. And he lost Wake County, the biggest county in the district, albeit narrowly, and only managed to tie his Democratic opponent in Nash County. The district includes all or part of 6 counties in the northern part of the state-- listed by population: Wake, Johnson, Nash, Harnett, Franklin and Wilson. Trump's reelect numbers are underwater in North Carolina. 2020 is going to be a good year for progressives like Jason Butler running down-ticket-- as long as Cheri Bustos and the DCCC don't insert some conservative, GOP-lite candidate, with nothing to offer voters, as they tend to try to do in districts like this.


The Red-Handed Fleecing of Rural America
by Jason Butler

Part of the American experience that is ingrained in each one of us is the pride of being a fearless people that will defend each other in the face of evil and will always be there for our friends. After all…these colors don’t run. But right now, it seems we are being paralyzed in the face of our rapidly changing future and we are standing frozen, even looking backwards, instead of moving forward with courage.

Yes, the world is changing at an unprecedented pace and if we are honest, we feel a bit uncertain of what lies ahead. There are challenges ahead that we feel unequipped to face and so, we are desperately trying to hold on to the present reality that feels so familiar. Maybe we are a bit like a horse and buggy repair shop at the dawn of the age of the automobile. Those that refused to learn engine repair got left behind but those that embraced this new technological future thrived. We are facing the same sort of reality today and we find this most evident in our rural communities.

Now, I know… there is a lot of negativity coming out of rural white America right now. But we need to be reminded that rural America is just like any other community-- there is diversity there too. There are Latinx and immigrant and African-American and indigenous communities, and there are so many children. I’m not going to give up on them. Here’s the reality-- rural America has been hit with a perfect storm that has left it as a shell of what it once was. We’ve all driven through those towns, seen the abandoned store fronts and thought, “Wow, this must have been an amazing place 40 years ago.” Some of the reasons for this are:

• Automation and technological advancement have dramatically cut down on the amount of farm employees, cutting down on the working population;
• The promise of high paying tech and medical jobs have attracted the young to cities
• CEO’s moved their factories overseas to cut down on costs;
• Lack of funding for rural schools leave kids behind;
• Lack of environmental regulation and oversight allow companies to dump poison in these communities that make people sick;
• But because of lower populations, healthcare options are few and far between;
• And even worse…high unemployment and under-employment leave many with no healthcare coverage for them or their children.

And now:

• Trump’s trade war is further eroding farming market share and destroying family farms;
• And big Pharma exploited the pain of rural America and left an opioid crisis that will affect rural families for generations to come while also overextending already underfunded medical emergency services, first responders, and family social services.

Rev. Dr. William Barber often reminds us that poverty is not a problem isolated to one demographic but affects those with lighter skin and those with darker skin. Republicans know this and that’s why they have worked tirelessly to divide rural white folks from people of color. They have spent massive amounts of time and money to try to convince rural communities that immigration is the problem, or entitlements are the problem, or…or…but this is all a diversion to the real problem-- the real problem is the partnership that rich Republican leaders have made with big business and their reluctance to invest and protect their rural base.

Trump has convinced rural America to trade its economic future for a red hat of hostility. He’s convinced rural folks that pushing others down is the path to power, but the only true path to success is by lifting others up, not by pushing them down. Jesus taught me this.

The sad reality of rural America is that:

• Those manufacturing jobs are not coming back.
• Coal’s day is nearing its end.
• The market for soybeans is gone…for good.
• The planet is warming and will make farming more difficult.
• Rural children are suffering because of lack of affordable healthcare.

But why do I care? I care because I spent my entire childhood and college years in rural communities-- both in eastern NC and Appalachia Virginia. These are my people. I was raised in church with them, was taught by them in our schools, and still hold them as dear friends and family. Yes, my views on race, religion, sexuality, and politics have transformed over the years but deep down-- I’m a progressive country boy who drives a truck, rides a Harley.

I’m also a pastor. Yes, that’s right. I’m a progressive United Methodist pastor who believes in the dignity and worth of every single person, who fully supports the LGBTQ+ community, who fights for racial justice, who strives to create an equitable economy, who believes our environment is a gift that should be protected, and believes our diversity makes us stronger. I’ve founded 2 non-profits to protect the vulnerable, organized communities to push back on the power of big banks, and spent much of my professional career teaching people to care for one another, empowering them to build diverse community, and inspiring folks to resist the political and religious forces of fear that steal, kill, and destroy.

In my opinion, Republicans have fleeced rural America’s wealth and their religion-- using both to create more power for themselves and their corporate buddies.

Why is my faith important to my campaign? Because conservative politics is tied up with Christianity in America and the only way we are ever going to detangle this fundamentalist faith from the politics of fear and division is to deal with it at the root. Republicans have gerrymandered the evangelical church and promised them power if they forego the basic tenants of Jesus for the pursuit of a conservative Supreme Court. These same folks taught me that the golden rule is to “love God and love our neighbor as ourselves.” But yet, now many of them chant, “send her back,” are supportive of immigrant family separation and child detention, openly fan the flame of racism, fight against the rights of freedoms of the LGBTQ+ community, and vote for policies that hurt everyone, themselves included. I’m running because I believe I can expose these national immoralities and help lead us in a recovery of our moral courage to fight for liberty and justice for ALL.

And the only way we are going to do that is to leave our hate behind, pick up our heads and look boldly into the reality of our future and realize that we have the capacity to creatively solve every problem we face through innovation and hard work.

I’m just getting started in my campaign here in North Carolina’s 2nd district but here are some initial ways I believe we can work together to restore our rural communities. Don’t get me wrong-- this will be hard work, as we’ll have to deal with both economic and ideological brokenness-- and this is not my single issue as I’m also deeply concerned about the needs of those in urban centers as well. But there is an opening for Democrats here! And I’m reminded that the longest journey begins with the first step-- here’s where our first steps need to be:

• Invest in the making high speed internet available for all.

This may seem like a simple solution but it’s actually quite a problem and a foundation that all the other parts need to be built upon. In a recent Pew survey 58% of rural Americans say that this is a problem. High speed internet connects communities to broader opportunities, provides further educational opportunities to schools and children, and opens economic opportunities in our “gig” economy. We want stronger and better funded school systems – then kids needs this in their schools and in their homes. Democracy thrives when information is prevalent and engagement is high and as many have said, it dies in the dark. Each of the following points relies on getting rural communities connected, informed, and engaged.

• Expand Medicaid.

Healthcare is a human right. We shouldn’t play politics with the health of our children and families because healthcare gives life. On average, about 32% of rural individuals are uninsured. But in states where Medicaid is expanded that number is drastically reduced to an average of 16%. When people have access to insurance it has been proven they live longer, work more, and suffer less. A recent study even linked Medicaid expansion to lower infant mortality rates. Why are Republicans against this again? I’m waiting…

Medicaid expansion works-- it gets people insurance and builds healthier families and stronger communities. Christians should especially be in favor of expanded Medicaid as this helps to build wholeness in our communities-- after all-- Jesus was walking free healthcare as he healed the sick that were brought to him. How could Christians stand against such policies that give life, bring healing, and renew both bodies and families? Isn’t healthcare the most pro-life policy of all? But beyond healthcare as a moral imperative, it also is an economic stimulus.

The Winston-Salem Journal recently published a report outlining the economic benefits of the expansion of Medicaid here in NC saying,

“The overwhelming majority of U.S. rural hospitals forced to close their doors were in states that have not expanded (Medicaid) eligibility,” said Patrick McHugh, the center’s senior policy analyst and report co-author.

“Seventy percent of N.C.’s 80 rural counties are already designated at ‘medical deserts’ for their lack of primary care availability.” The authors said rural hospitals would receive $665 million in new Medicaid payments each year, “which would improve rural hospitals’ net fiscal strength by nearly $140 million.” “By dramatically reducing uncompensated care costs for many rural hospitals in North Carolina, Medicaid expansion is likely the single fastest way to put these facilities on more solid economic ground while addressing a gaping hole in our health-care system,” the authors said.

This allows hospitals to hire more medical professionals which in turn boost local economies. Living with sickness is miserable and we should do all we can to ease the suffering of our neighbors. This investment in just that-- an investment. Economically, there may not be a greater return on investment than making sure every single American has access to quality and affordable healthcare as it ensures more Americans can participate in the economy, can join the workforce, and can have the extra to buy homes and build wealth. No one should have be threatened with bankruptcy and foreclosure because of an illness. Morally, we cannot be a nation where corporations make billions in profit every year and yet, so many vulnerable children, mothers, and families suffer due to lack of health care coverage. We are better than this. There’s more than enough money to do this, our politicians just lack the moral courage to do the right thing.

• Declare the Opioid Crisis a National Emergency

Every day 130 Americans die from opioid overdoes. Since 1999 400,000 Americans have died from opioid related overdoses. This is America’s real national emergency and needs to be treated as such. Families are being destroyed every single day-- many in our rural counties – because big pharmaceutical companies like Purdue and others preyed on rural communities by conspiring to push these painkillers on isolated and vulnerable communities. The results have been devastating. Children left without parents, parents grieving lost teens, and communities living in a state of constant shock. This has taken an unknown economic and emotional toll on emergency services, first responders, hospitals, and schools in these affected areas. Not to mention, the toll on families. An article from WebMD states it by saying, “The opioid epidemic appears to be literally tearing families apart. Children are being taken out of their homes at alarming rates because their parents are abusing drugs, a new study shows. The number of kids placed in foster care in the United States due to parental drug use has more than doubled over the past two decades, rising to nearly 96,700 in 2017 from about 39,100 in 2000.”

Where are Republicans when it comes to pro-family policies now? Aren’t they supposed to be the party of “family values?” Then why can’t they stand up to big pharmaceutical companies that have been ravaging rural communities? Oh, could it be the result of the nearly $80 million the pharmaceutical industry spends on lobbying Congress each year? Yes, when operating with decency and seeking the common good, pharmaceutical companies enrich our lives through medical breakthrough and miracle cures-- but when they operate with this sort of nefarious and deceitful motivation then they need to be held accountable and pay for the damage they have caused.

A few years ago, Trump began to recognize this problem and declared a “health crisis” allocating a few billion dollars to the problem but failed to use the money to build the infrastructure needed to tackle this problem and thus little was done. Moving on to “his wall” he left this crisis behind. People are dying “deaths of despair” and we need to respond accordingly as a nation by declaring a national emergency, holding wrong-doing pharmaceutical companies liable, and allocating $10 billion a year in community based opioid recovery assistance. Expanding Medicaid goes hand-in-hand and is essential in this fight as well as these communities need access to both healthcare and mental health care to heal from suffering this epidemic has unleashed.

• Green Energy Infrastructure

We are in the midst of an environmental crisis. The planet is warming, our ice sheets are melting, and our weather is intensifying. Over the next 50 years things will continue to get worse which will cause massive displacement of the poor and create both food and water shortages around the world. And our collective political response to this unfolding crisis is almost non-existent. Politicians on the right, along with multi-billion-dollar corporations, try to calm us by saying, “there’s no problem here,” but there is an urgent problem! Our planet is dying, and we are busy re-arranging the furniture. I have three young children and I’d really like for them to have a planet to grow up on. We need immediate and urgent action. I’m all in favor of proposals like the Green New Deal and believe that we need to get such deals in Congressional committees and bring them to life. Yes, Republicans will try to block them-- but here’s where the rural communities are so key. Rural communities form the base of the Republican party, but they can also be the foundation for such grand proposals like the Green New Deal.

Rural communities are a natural fit for the sort of green energy infrastructure that America needs. Rural communities have the land for wind and solar farms, they will greatly benefit from the jobs and economic stimulation that green infrastructure would bring, and they can push their conservative representatives to fight on their behalf for these deals that would bring innovation and economic vitality to their communities. Sierra Club reports on this exact sort of situation in Indiana saying,

“Cleantech is also bringing countless new jobs to struggling areas. In the Midwest, over 8,000 new jobs were added in the clean energy sector alone. In Benton County Indiana, wind investment brought 110 permanent jobs and $17 million in revenue. This has a real influence on local economies.”

As tech companies grow and need more power, they are looking to build energy farms in rural communities that have the space and workforce ready to step in. Mobilizing the Green New Deal in rural communities is a win-win for everyone. It restores the economic viability of our rural communities, provides the energy resources business needs to thrive, and helps to save our planet-- all at the same time.

But yet-- Republicans stand against these green innovative solutions, they stand against the expansion of Medicaid, and they haven’t fought for opioid recovery. Our rural communities are suffering terribly and what are Republicans doing? Very little to say the least. “Let the people suffer” should be their new motto.

Yes-- it’s time we realize that Republicans are being caught red handed-- they have exploited the wealth, religion, and the future of rural communities and left them to suffer alone. We need to change this. We need deep investment in our rural communities-- not so that they will vote for us in the future. Rather, we need to help them because they are our fellow brothers and sisters, our neighbors and our fellow Americans. We need to help because we need to be the party that hears the cries of the suffering and do all we can to ensure a future of flourishing and hope for every single American. Yes, even if we don’t agree with them on everything and even if some are caught in a trap of racism and division right now. As Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. reminds us, “Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that.”

Yes, we face new challenges and must respond with new and innovative solutions. We will have to face the future with courage and integrity-- with a commitment to human flourishing-- and be willing to push back against the paralyzing forces of fear to boldly march into our future with the conviction that we can rise above every challenge we face to ensure a thriving future for every single person in this country.

As one much greater than I has said, “The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.” Maybe those words are echoing through the halls of history for such a time as this.

Primary Day: Trump Takes On The Koch Brothers, Club For Growth And The Tea Partry

We've been focused on today's congressional primaries in races in California, New Jersey and Iowa, where Blue America is backing 9 candidates in competitive races: Lou Vince, Nanette Barragan, Bao Nguyen, Bill Ostrander, Alex Law, Jim Keady and Pat Murphy. But there are also primaries for House seats in South Dakota New Mexico, Montana and North Carolina. Many of the races in these states are not competitive. Even in New Jersey, where Blue America is involved with primaries for Alex Law, Eloy Delgado and Jim Keady, we have another candidate we've endorsed-- Peter Jacobs, who's taking on Republican Leonard Lance--where the party is already united and the nomination is settled... at least on the Democratic side. We think Peter will be up against Lance, the Trump-supporting GOP incumbent, but the Republicans have their own primary in NJ-07, where Lance has 2 crackpot opponents, right-wing businessman Craig Heard and teabagger gadfly David Larsen. Lance has already spent $665,108 making sure he would have no surprises tonight, while Heard has spent $47,667 (Larsen has spent nothing).

But the most-watched Republican primary today is definitely in North Carolina, where gerrymandering has caused a court-ordered redistricting that has thrown two incumbents-- Renee Ellmers and George Holding into a race against each other (which also includes a well-known far right extremist, Greg Brannon). We've been mentioning this race lately because movement conservative organizations have lined up against Ellmers in a big way and because she moved early to wrap herself in the Trump lustre. She was one of the first members of Congress (and the first woman member) to fully embrace his narcissistic-- not to mention racist, xenophobic and misogynistic-- campaign. It was a shrewd strategy once the right-wing had declared war on her and backed Holding. Aside from Holding's own family SuperPAC, the American Foundations Committee, putting $330,580 into the race, The Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity threw in $205,794 in their first foray into the world of congressional primaries and the Club for Growth threw $787,841 into the red hot primary. Two other extremist groups, FreedomWorks and the Susan B Anthony List, the lunatic fringe GOP version of EMILY's List, have also jumped in to attack Ellmers.

Game-changing big news broke in the race over the weekend, when Trump himself weighed in with an endorsement for Ellmers, putting him in conflict with the right-wing of the party and in line with the Paul Ryan establishment wing. Saturday he gave Ellmers the robocall you can hear up top. Tonight we'll get a another clue whether Trump is going to be seen as a king-maker or a drag for congressional Republicans. Koch money vs the Trump brand!

He didn't give Ellmers any money or even pay for the call, but this will be a test of what his name means to Republican primary voters. Although Trump did well in his own primary in North Carolina, he didn't do great in the Raleigh suburbs which make up much of this district. Ted Cruz beat Trump in Franklin, Nash, Wilson, Chatham and Johnston counties. Before Trump's endorsement Saturday, Holding looked like he would win this one. Trump has thrown the contest into turmoil-- and there will be no runoff. Whoever gets a plurality wins the primary and, in effect, the seat. Most of the newly drawn second district was part of Holding's old district and just a small part was in Ellmer's. Here's a Koch brothers ad that ran this weekend:



Monday morning, the Tea Party Patriots, which calls itself the "biggest" of all the teabagger groups still active in politics, endorsed Holding, primarily because they hate Ellmers (and Paul Ryan). They are now urging North Carolina Republican primary voters to "reject a Representative who first ran for office with Tea Party support but was seduced by Washington once she got to the nation’s capital." This pits them directly against what Trump is asking NC-02 Republican primary voters to do. Should be interesting to watch the results roll in tonight.

Rep. George Holding-- a former legal counsel to the revered Sen. Jesse Helms-- refused to support the Ryan-Murray budget deal that ended Sequestration; supported the 2015 Republican Study Committee budget; has refused to vote to raise the debt ceiling; voted in favor of prohibiting taxpayer funding for abortion; voted in favor of preventing the IRS from implementing ObamaCare; voted to require Members of Congress and their staffs to give up their illegal ObamaCare subsidies; and has been a strong opponent of both illegal immigration and the Obama Administration’s executive amnesty programs.

Rep. Renee Ellmers, on the other hand, has been a disappointment, to say the least. She campaigned in 2010 with Tea Party support, but turned her back once she got to Washington, and instead became another Big Government liberal. She supported wasteful spending bills-- including voting for a trillion-dollar omnibus spending bill that broke the spending caps Congress had set on itself!-- and voted to increase the national debt. She even sided with Nancy Pelosi in voting to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank last year, and she voted to fund President Obama’s illegal executive amnesty program.

Perhaps even worse than her voting record, however, is her disdainful and dismissive attitude toward her constituents. In one such meeting in 2014, she was so rude that the meeting-- an account of which can be found here-- has become legendary. She has made clear that she no longer thinks of herself as her constituents’ representative to Washington; instead, she thinks of herself as Washington’s representative to her constituents. That’s just not a record worthy of Tea Party support, and, in fact, is a record worthy of Tea Party opposition.

UPDATE: Trump The Big Loser In North Carolina

George Holding trounced Renee Ellmers, (despite?) the endorsement by and robocall from Trump. She barely held on to second place, losing 5 of the 6 counties, narrowly winning Harnett Co.

• George Holding- 53.38%
• Renee Ellmers- 23.64%
• Greg Brannon- 22.99%

Is A Congressional Bloodbath Coming For GOP Candidates Who Hopped Aboard The Trump Train? Oh Yes

This morning an inexperienced campaign manager called and asked me for some advise. She talked-- mostly complaining and gossiping and babbling about herself-- for over an hour and I doubt she listened to a word I said. But what I told her her under-funded, unknown candidate must do is tie their opponent to Trump. "Every time someone thinks about him, Trump should come into their consciousness. Your candidate is a long-shot, but, in your district, this is the way to do it."

Do you know who Republican strategist Rick Wilson is? Many people heard about him when he launched a Republican Establishment jihad against Trump. In late March, he told the NY Times that he would prefer Hillary to Trump; may conservatives would. He told Times readers "I will not vote for Hillary, and I will not vote for Trump. At the end of the day, I believe that President Clinton would be less damaging to the Republican Party than President Trump. Because five minutes after she’s elected president, every bit of this anxiety in our party disappears instantly. We will go at the main enemy as we do. It will be a terrible four years, but it will have stopped this lunacy... I wrote the original Reverend Wright ad. I have spent a 25-year career in politics detonating Democrats out of safe seats and causing no end of troubles for them. I’m not a squishy liberal Republican."

Over the weekend, he wrote about one of my favorite subjects: what Trump is likely to do for down-ballot Republicans. Tonight we'll watch North Carolina's second congressional district where a GOP civil war raged between two different Republican establishments. Although she started her political life as a teabagger, Renee Ellmers was identified as a shill for the Beltway establishment and as a Boehner/Ryan lackey. The Club for Growth, the Koch brothers and half a dozen other far right establishment anti-establishment groups backed George Holding. Trump weighed in outside this dichotomy-- backing Ellmers solely based on his own narcissistic perspective (i.e., she endorsed him)-- and he was unable to rescue her political career. Maybe he'll remember to make her Secretary of Something in his imaginary cabinet.

Conjuring up a warning, Wilson asked his readers to imagine that "it’s the Fall of this year and you’re a U.S. House or Senate candidate in a swing district or state. Your Democratic opponent is running a low-risk campaign, having pivoted to the slightly-center-left with aplomb. Regardless of their actual beliefs, they’ve got their masks bolted on tight, staying relentlessly on message as technocratic middle-of-the-lane moderates. Barack Obama’s approval numbers keep creeping higher and higher as a kind of “at least he’s not crazy or obviously corrupt” vibe sets in with the public. It makes your “Obamacare, Benghazi, tranny bathrooms” message cluster feel less promising than it did last year when you were planning this run, doesn’t it?"

When you endorsed him, you bought all the problems Trump has with the voters and none of the assets. That’s why you’re awake at night, staring at the ceiling wondering what the madman will tweet next. You’ve had a tough summer, with endless questions from the press in your not-too-conservative state. Every time he opens his mouth, you’re flooded with questions. You wake up every day trying to stay on your message, but each morning your guts get watery when the Google alert with “your name + Donald Trump” pops on your iPhone. It’s why you can’t go on your Twitter or Facebook or do town hall meetings; because the whole election is about Trump, not you.

The resources you need from the donor community are a bright spot, because they’re certainly not giving the money to Mr. Self Funder Billionaire, but you’re having to spend it basically as it comes in to defend yourself. Your opponent and their allied SuperPACs are pounding you with media linking you at the hip with Trump. The themes are easy to predict; “Donald Trump says Mexicans are rapists…and Candidate X still backs him…100%” is the core script. Some of the connections are tenuous, but it doesn’t matter. All because you said the fateful words, “I support Donald Trump.”

I get it. You were terrified of his online horde of low-information whackjobs, neo-Nazi trolls, red-hat jackasses and their endless, febrile demands that you worship at the foot of Agent Orange. Hell, you’re a politician. You want to be loved. He was beating all the people you liked and respected, one after another. The media kept making him the spotlight, the hot focus of attention and you wanted some of that mojo, didn’t you? Bad call.

You see it in your polling, every day. Trump’s poison brand has splashed over on you, like the reek of some political sewage you can’t wash off. Your data model shows you need to capture at least 30% of the Hispanic vote, but with Trump polling with Hispanics in the low teens and nearing single digits in some places, you can’t seem to break through. Married, professional women are voting for Hillary in droves, repelled by Donald Trump’s racism, misogyny, and also by the increasingly hideous behavior of his supporters. They’re suddenly not so fond of you, either.

You own his politics. You own his policies, even the ones that only last as long as the next contradiction. You own the racial animus that started out as a bug, became a feature and is now the defining characteristic of his campaign. You own every crazy, vile chunk of word vomit that spews from his mouth. You own his racist bleatings about Mexicans and “his” African Americans. You own his digital Hitler Youth alt-reich fanboys with their white-power fantasies and roaring anti-Semitism.

He’s political poison. Don’t believe me? You will. Feel that sinking sensation? That’s Trump’s negatives dragging you down. Donald Trump’s polling-average approval rating among registered and likely voters today stands at a grisly 34% favorable and 60.5% unfavorable.Hillary’s isn’t much better, but she has the small benefit of being able to shut her mouth when some crazy thought is trying to escape her mind.

You were intrigued by his new, energetic populist message that breaks out of the stale confines of the tired old GOPe’s message playbook? You mean “build duh wall!” and “bomb duh oil?” and the rest of his catalog of slack-jawed inanities? Good luck with that. Yes, you need to stop “speaking Washington” but Trump’s message, affect and style isn’t fungible to human candidates.

Oh, you believed he was expanding the electorate? Bringing in millions of new voters? They’re not new; they’re just general election GOP voters who came out for him in the primary. Not you. Him. You perhaps overlooked that he’s also shedding millions of voters from the GOP’s coalition. If you’re in a swing state or district, tell me how you win back the Republican women and professionals who are fleeing Trump in droves? Tell me how you win in Florida or Nevada or Colorado as Hispanic support approached single digits?

He’s not going to change. He’s not going to stop being a shallow blowhard and non-stop-Malaprop. There is no better Trump. He’s not going to become more Presidential or more mindful. Trump doesn’t give a damn about your election. You’re not part of a unified Republican ticket; you’re collateral damage in Trump Rampage Raw WWE 2016. Every day, Donald Trump hands the Democrats another sword with which to cut off your political heads. Every day, Trump adds to their catalog of opposition research and endlessly catchy video bits. He’s all yours, and there are few paths to escape the blast radius.

Earlier this evening Lindsey Graham said that Trump's jihad against Judge Curiel are "the most un-American thing from a politician since Joe McCarthy" and, more ominously, that "there’ll come a time when the love of country will trump hatred of Hillary." (And ole Lindsey doesn't really hate Hillary anyway.) So... the thermometer below leads to a unique fundraising page: #NeverTrump-- too late for Republicans; anything but too late for normal people.

Can Trump Save Renee Ellmers From The Far Right?

Renee Ellmers is probably wishing all she had to face this election cycle was last cycle's opponent, gay singling star and American Idol fave, Clay Aiken. She beat him 122,128 (59%) to 85,479 (41%). After the district was redrawn by court order it's still safely Republican but now she's in a battle royale with fellow Republicans George Holding (who was redistricted out of a safe seat) and big name teabagger Greg Brannon who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and has major name recognition. The congressional primary was postponed until June 7 because of the new boundaries. The district includes Vance, Franklin, Nash, Johnston, Harnett, Sampson, Harnett, Lee and Chatham counties.

Ellmers, who has endorsed Trump-- the first woman in Congress to do so-- to make up for her squishy reputation, has some real problems here. First off, Holding who's one of the richest members of Congress and lives nowhere near the district, has the backing of FreedomWorks, Club for Growth (which has already spent half a million dollars attacking Ellmers), the Susan B Anthony List (the right-wing version of EMILY's List but even crazier), the North Carolina Values Coalition and the Koch Brothers' Americans For Prosperity.

Club for Growth Action President David McIntosh charged Ellmers isn’t the same “tea-party conservative” she ran as six years ago. He called Ellmers “an establishment liberal in Washington,” and criticized her vote in favor of December’s omnibus spending bill that avoided a government shutdown.

...Ellmers’ campaign Friday called the Club for Growth “a Washington special interest group that supports candidates like George Holding and Greg Brannon because they have pledged to be their puppets.”

Patrick Sebastian, Ellmers’ campaign spokesman, said the group was unable to effectively attack Trump this election cycle, so they’ve turned toward attacking his allies. Sebastian noted Ellmers’ conservative record of pro-military and Medicare reform votes in Congress.




Ellmers was the first woman in Congress to endorse Trump. She has very publicly championed Trump and she penned the billionaire CEO’s profile in last month’s Time magazine “100 Most Influential People” feature.

At the same time, the Club for Growth spent months attacking the GOP presidential frontrunner, threatening Republicans who endorsed Trump prior to Sen. Ted Cruz and John Kaisch dropping out this week.

This will be the first time the Koch organization is opposing a Republican incumbent in a primary and they're coming in with several hundred thousand dollars worth of mailers and ads. So far Ellmers has raised $1,300,979 and has $572,837 cash-on-hand, Holding has raised $1,380,508 (with $554,384 cash on hand) and Brannon has brought in $321,586, most of which he's already spent. Ellmers' reputation took a huge hit when her adulterous affair with Kevin McCarthy was exposed, something Republican voters in North Carolina take seriously. Holding is favored to beat her in the primary next month.

Trump came out on top in the North Carolina primary, beating Cruz by around 50,000 votes, 40.2 to 36.8%. But it was much closer in NC-02, where he lost the Raleigh suburbs (Franklin, Nash, Wilson, Chatham and Johnston counties) to Cruz but won Vance, Lee, Harnett and Sampson counties. I'm sure North Carolina Republicans will rally round Trump now, but he may have a harder time with Independents. Hard to say if he'll be a net plus or a net minus for Ellmers, but I guess if she loses he can find her a job-- either in his administration or... he always has lot of work for women, right?