Options For Would-Be Tea Party Speaker Daniel "Taliban Dan" Webster Staying In Congress Are Closing

Daniel Webster has been in the news lately because he's "running" (not really) for House Speaker as the Freedom Caucus/Tea Party candidate. He isn't considered a serious candidate with an actual chance to ever become Speaker, just a pawn in the game between the extremists and the mainstream conservative Establishment. But ole "Taliban Dan" is probably happy he's in the news as a potential Speaker rather than as someone who's about to lose his congressional seat. Let's talk about that for a minute. In 2010 Webster was elected in the 8th district in Central Florida. The following year, the corrupt Republican state legislature gerrymandered the state up again to create as many Republican seats as they could and Webster got a nice red seat, now called the 10th. In 2008, the 8th had gone to Obama by 5 points but the newly created 10th, which put many Democratic neighborhoods into the 9th district created a frankenstein-monster of a district that includes southwestern and southeastern Orlando but skirts areas where Democrats live, Obama would have lost by 5 points, quite the swing. And, in fact, in 2012, under those lines the district-- with a PVI of R+6-- gave Romney an even heftier 53-46% win. Webster beat a weak but well-funded Democrat, Val Demings, 52-48% in 2012 and then beat an even weaker Democrat, Michael McKenna, last year 62-38%.

But then the state of Florida was sued for the gerrymandered districts and a judge threw them out and one of the districts most effected was Webster's. Under the new lines-- Under the new lines-- which includes African-American neighborhoods of west Orlando and does not include any of red-leaning Lake County (or Polk County)-- the district that gave Romney a 53.4-45.7% win over Obama would have given Obama a 60.7-38.4% landslide win. Bye-bye Webster. (The likely Democratic challenger is a well-known, well-heeled and well-liked former state Democratic Party chairman, Bob Poe, a progressive who will first have to beat DCCC/EMILY's List deadbeat, Val Demings, who wants to give it another' try but is intensely disliked in the area.)

Meanwhile, there has been constant chatter about John Mica moving up to FL-06, a deep red district, much of which was his previously and leaving FL-07, his current district. The rationale is that FL-07 is a tough district, evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and could be a challenge for Mica. Under the old lines Romney beat Obama 51.8- 47.1% but under the new lines it would have been an exact 49.4-49.4% split. (FL-06, by contrast, newly open because current Congressman Ron DeSantis is running for Rubio's open Senate seat, will have a population that gave Romney 52.2% to Obama's 46.6%, much safer for Mica.) The problem is that Mica doesn't want to move and says he won't do it, especially since the DCCC has a typically lame candidate, Blue Dog Bill Phillips who would pose no real challenge to Mica. So much for the musical chairs scenario... unless Webster wants to skip a couple districts and move up to FL-06 himself, completely new territory for him.

He'd be looked at as a carpetbagger in a basically coastal district that stretches along the 95 from below Edgewater and New Smyrna Beach all the way up along the coast through Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and St. Augustine. Worse yet, for Webster, former Tea Party Republican Congresswoman Sandy Adams is already running in the 6th (as is New Smyrna Beach ex-mayor Adam Barringer). And the Democrat who represents Daytona Beach in the state House, Dwayne Taylor, announced last week that he's running as well. If Ted Cruz is at the top of the GOP ticket and it's an especially bad year for the GOP, FL-07 and FL-06 could both go blue (although Mica would be a better bet for the GOP in either district than Webster who would have a real struggle in both districts, though they're viewed as not as impossible as the new 10th. So, in all likelihood, like I already said... bye-bye Webster.

A Guest Post From An American Dream Candidate, Heather Beaven (D-FL)

Heather Beaven ran against longtime incumbent John Mica in 2010 but this year, because both Republican incumbents, Mica and Sandy Adams, have fled inland to the more Republican-friendly 7th CD, the newly redistricted 6th is an open seat. Either Heather, or political newcomer, Vipin Verma, the two Democrats in the August 14th primary, will take on the winner of a bizarre menagerie of Republican oddities. In a district especially hard hit by joblessness, foreclosures and shuttered businesses, the GOP is offering a real freak show: right-wing ideologue and anti-Choice/anti-environment fanatic Ron DeSantis, deranged anti-gay crusader Bev Slough, clownish dentist-with-gun Fred Costello, Craig Miller, a rich corporate freak best known for having moved Ruth's Chris headquarters out of New Orleans two days after Hurricane Katrina, and Dick Clark, a guy who inherited his family's janitorial business and whose top issue is ending public education so the rich don't have to pay for poor people's children to go to school. Below, Heather talks about what's behind her decision to run.

-Howie

TIPPING POINT

-by Heather Beaven

Since I decided to run for US House of Representatives, the most common question I get from friends, family and even strangers is: “Why would you put yourself through that?”

I hear some version of that from people who love politics and people who hate it; people who think highly of our government and people who don’t; people who have significant wealth and people who struggle to make ends meet. And it always perplexes me. I keep thinking-- How could I not? How could you not?

I don’t want to miss my daughters’ surf competitions. I don’t want to be subject to ridicule or violent threats and I certainly don’t want to spend one moment away from my husband before he deploys to Afghanistan later this summer. But if people like us are scared off from serving their country, then haven’t we already abandoned both the Constitution and the American Dream?

I am fighting against eight Tea Party Republicans to represent the people of St. Johns, Flagler, Putnam and Volusia Counties even though I have every reason to ‘sit this one out’ because the constant drum beat of how America is working for a few while too many others fall slowly behind is… deafening.

It rings out in stump speeches across the nation. There is some truth in every off-the-cuff line uttered on the campaign trail. In Illinois, Mitt Romney tossed out a comment that makes clear; this election as about two very different definitions of the American Dream.

While describing his grandfather, Mr. Romney said that he worked hard, raised great kids and had a good wife but that “he never quite made it.” I literally gasped.

My grandfather worked hard. He raised great kids and he had a good wife. He’s in Heaven now with her and their son. I think of him every day. I think of the times I rode with him as he delivered mail in rural Missouri. I remember the stories he told of getting ‘milk fever’ while stationed in Ft. Hood. When I fish with my daughters, I feel him. I swell up with emotion when I remember the devotion he showed my grandma during her final days even though she didn’t remember him or their sixty five years together.

I suppose, by some people’s definition, my grandfather “never quite made it” because by the time he died all that he had earned by working hard was spent on caring for his ailing wife. But to me, he was the beacon of success and I take great comfort in knowing that he heard “well done, good and faithful servant.”

We are living in a tipping point moment as we face the fact that our children’s American Dream may be less vibrant than ours. Our generations’ greatest question to answer turns out to be the most basic-- does the exceptionalism of America still stand on the shoulders of average and normal Americans?

I am thrilled to be a part of the generation who gets to answer that question. In fact, I believe there is no greater moment in human history to be living and there has never been a more meaningful time to be an American.

We didn’t create the American Dream; our founding fathers did. We didn’t spill our blood on American soil to create a more perfect union; our great great granddaddies did that. We didn’t watch draught and greed turn America into a dust bowl only to demand better of our country and our corporations; our great grandfathers did that. And we didn’t answer the worlds’ plea for help in World War II; our grandfathers did.

It was our mothers who demanded that their daughters have a fighting chance at living the American Dream in homes free of abuse, work free of harassment and with a government free of discrimination. It was our mothers and our fathers who faced dogs and fire hoses so that every American could be educated, respected and equal.

We have been left a legacy that has made America the envy of the world. We now face the tipping point. Are we going to improve upon the America that has been handed down to us or are we going to undo every advance we have made? This answer will decide how history views our generation.

Even with the constant drum beat of judgment and regression, I still hear the American spirit. I hear it as loudly as I did on the day I graduated from Navy boot camp when I first truly realized what it meant to be a part of something greater. I hear it thumping as loudly as the hopes beating in the hearts of the children I work with everyday who still believe they can be anything. I hear it as confidently as the whisper between Soldiers in a foxhole who know they will always be there for each other.

For me this election is a tipping point. Will we pass the American Dream onto our children or will we tell them stories of it as some far off distant memory?

Energetic Florida Democrat Vipin Verma Scares Away 10-Term Incumbent John Mica

A couple of days ago I had an opportunity to sit down for a long chat with a brilliant and enthusiastic young progressive Democrat, Vipin Verma, who's running for Congress in Florida's brand new 6th congressional district. I had to find out how he ran off Establishment barnacle John Mica, who has now decided to run in a Republican primary against crackpot freshman teabagger Sandy Adams rather than face this Democrat in a seat he's held for two decades!

I grew more and more intrigued when well thought-out ideas to help lead his neighbors to a 21st Century feared and eschewed by narrow-minded conservatives like Mica and how to connect with voters on a progressive agenda started tumbling out of him in rapid fire. On the economy, he said “I live in a coastal district, which relies heavily on tourism, but in order for the district to thrive, we need to diversify our economy.” The sector that he would like to bring into his district is a high-tech manufacturing sector, such as robotics and nanotechnology, and increased focus on bio-medical research and engineering, such as stem cell research and its applications. “This is the wave of the future, and this is how we are going to grow as a district and nation,” he said. For the nation, he would focus on rebuilding our country’s infrastructure.

On education, one of his key issues that he came back to again and again while we talked, he said “We should think about revamping our entire system for the 21st century economy.” He proposes that the first step is to bring a top-tier college prep program in each school, and make it open enrollment, so as long as you are willing to work hard and put in the work you will be well prepared for college. The second step in a top-tier vocational or technical program in each school, in conjunction with community and state colleges, which prepares people to enter the job market at 18, with a high school diploma, and the technical knowledge to attain a middle class lifestyle. For the students interested in the high school diploma + technical degree program, they would attend the traditional high school in the morning and take the basic English, Math, Science, and Social Studies classes, and after lunch, they would go to the vocational school, or the local community college to take classes and learn skills to enter the job market after high school. So, in the end, they will graduate with a high school diploma, and a vocational degree.

You can read more about him, his ideas and stances on other issues at his website, vermaforcongress.com

I asked him to write a guest post on how he scared off Mica and set the stage for a Democratic victory in FL-06 in November 2012. Here is his post below; this is the way we like Democratic candidates to sound-- like they're one of us, not one of the Washington insiders:

John Mica Abandons Volusia, Flagler, St. Johns And Putnam Counties-- Runs Off To Orlando

-by Vipin Verma

I was always very interested in politics and decided I wanted to serve in the public life as an elected official. I watched the Republicans pass the Paul Ryan 2011 budget, which can be summed up as the destruction of the middle class and the “Death of Medicare.” I asked myself, how can the Republicans and John Mica vote to end Medicare for our seniors, when statistics show that millions of seniors would lose access to health care without it, and the voucher system would essentially leave millions of seniors without access to health care. Do they not understand what they are doing to the middle class and our seniors, or do they just not care?

If I had any doubts on how far the Republicans will go to destroy our country’s middle class, the final straw came when the whole debt-ceiling debate was taking place. Republicans held this country hostage for months, and in the end cost us our AAA credit rating.

Disgusted and shocked by the utter lack of compassion shown by the Republicans in Congress, who were more focused on political posturing rather than focusing on finding solutions to people’s problems, I remembered a quote from Mahatma Gandhi, "You must be the change you want to see in the world. ” I decided that the time was now, and I announced my candidacy for US Congress to take on John Mica and defeat him to reach Congress, and then take on Public Enemy #1: Paul Ryan, who I believe is destroying our country step by step, and is primarily responsible for costing us our credit rating.

I want to be the Democratic solution to Paul Ryan, and when he comes out with a budget proposal for deficit reduction projections for a 10 year period. I want to introduce a Democratic proposal that matches his deficit reduction projections at the end of 10 years without cutting Social Security or Medicare, or destroying our middle class. Finally, I will keep President Obama’s promise of not raising income taxes on families making $250,000 a year, and no person’s taxes will be increased beyond the tax rates they paid under President Clinton, the last time we had a budget surplus. Martin Luther once said, “We must rise above our individualistic concerns for the broader concerns of our nation,” and this is what we must do with budget. I am ready and prepared for this fight, and this is a fight we must win for our future generations.

The campaign began in July 2011 with the goal to take our country back from the radical Republicans like John Mica in Congress, whose focus was on protecting the tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of our middle class. I knew it would be a long and difficult journey, but I was prepared for the challenge.

The first step, was creating a progressive platform so that the voters would know where I stood on the issues, and began introducing myself to the Democratic party activists at the local, state, and national level. I attended and spoke at the local Democratic party meetings and organizations, and started winning over insiders with my enthusiasm and my platform. I took my message to the grassroots level speaking to schools, colleges, non-profits, local and civic organizations, policeman, firefighters, students, teachers, unions, churches, and the voters at public meetings, farmer’s markets, and canvassing neighborhoods.

My main message to the voters was, “Do you know Mica voted to end Medicare as we know it”; “When was the last time you saw John Mica?”; “What has Mica done for you [referring to Volusia, Flagler, and St Johns county voters], as opposed to the Orlando region? Most people were shocked on his vote on Medicare, and could not answer the other questions, and Republican households told me that they would personally call Mica and ask him about it. I bet his phone was ringing nonstop with his supporters asking him about his vote on ending Medicare, and what have you done for my hometown?

Then, I proceeded to tell them about my economic plan of diversifying our district’s economy and bring high tech manufacturing jobs in each part of my district, and how we can climb out of our recession by focusing on rebuilding our country’s infrastructure. The people were responding well to my economic plan and I was laying the groundwork to defeat John Mica. Mica knew that he had real race on his hands and that he would not be able to sit in Washington DC and rely solely on his lobbyists donations to win this election. He would have face the voters that he had long ignored, and explain himself.

The second step was getting by name on the ballot, I decided very early on to qualify for the election by obtaining signatures in the true democratic fashion, and had my name on the ballot by November 2011, and was the first candidate at state, or federal level in Florida to qualify by the petition method. This send a clear message to John Mica that I had the people’s support and that his days in DC, fighting for lobbyists and special interests, were numbered.

Finally, the Postal Service issue came to the national spotlight, and I worked with the Postal Unions to get the message out to the public that the real problem of the facing the Postal Service was not revenue, but the mandate to pre-fund their health benefits for 40 years in a 10 year time frame, which is not required for any other federal agency, or the private sector.

In January 2012, I learned from my postal union allies that the Post Office were discussing closing another sorting facility in my district, after having closed a sorting facility in my hometown of Daytona Beach, and changing delivery standards to slower the rate of service. In a public meeting, I went and spoke on behalf of the Postal Employees to tell the Post Service that your employees are not a number on a payroll, who you can shift from one location to the other, without regard to their families. Furthermore, I told them that you don’t increase market share and revenue by decreasing the level of service and increasing costs. Finally, I told them to be honest with the American public, and tell them that the real problem is the 2006 mandate to pre-fund health care mandate, and not revenues, and that when elected, my first order of business would be repeal the pre-funding mandate, and return the overpayments to the Postal Service.

I later found out that Mica’s representative was present in the building, and heard me speak. Weeks later, John Mica decided to face-off in a Republican primary against Sandy Adams, instead of facing me, the only declared candidate in the general election.

Other candidates who were too scared to take on John Mica in this election will now inevitably declare to run for this open seat with platitudes to create jobs without offering any specific details, and hide their positions by not taking a stand on the issues. My message to the voters and the public is this, if you can’t face John Mica, how will you take on Paul Ryan, John Boehner, and Republicans in Congress. I will not back down from a fight and take on Paul Ryan and John Boehner in Congress with a progressive agenda to bring our country back to prosperity.

Scaring off John Mica was only the beginning, I will campaign non-stop and continue to fight for the American people, and strengthen the middle class. Once elected, I take on Paul Ryan, John Boehner, and the “Do-Nothing” Republicans in Congress, but I need your support.

I would appreciate any support that you can provide, and you can donate directly to me here.

Sunshine State Or Cesspool State, Florida Has 25 Congressional Races Set

Florida has 25 congressional districts, all gerrymandered, mostly by state legislators drawing the boundaries to suit their own strengths and weaknesses for congressional runs the following year. For all the pristine white beaches and clear blue skies, Florida politics is one of the most corrupt cesspools in America. Friday was qualifying day for the next round of elections. There are only five simple, straightforward races pitting one Democrat against one Republican-- in the 7th (a northern district that covers the coast between St Augustine and Daytona Beach and swings inland to Altamonte Springs east of Orlando) where lunatic fringe wing-nut John Mica is being challenged by Democrat Heather Beaven; the 10th in Pinellas County (minus St
Petersburg) where Charlie Justice is taking on doddering Bill Young, long one of Congress' most egregiously corrupt members; the Miami-Dade district (18) where Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is being challenged by Rolando Banciella; the 19th where newly elected Ted Deutch (he replaced Wexler in a special 2 weeks ago); and the 23rd, where Democrat Alcee Hastings is being challenged by Bernard Sansaricq.

Only one congressman, inexplicably, has no challenger-- no primary, no Democrat, no teabagger, no nothing-- and that's an open seat, no less. Lincoln Diaz-Balart has decided to spend all his time plotting to become the president of post-Castro Cuba, so he isn't running in the 21st CD, a fairly-- but not overwhelmingly-- safe Republican seat. Instead his stupider and younger brother Mario fled from the increasingly blue 25th CD (we'll get to that shortly) and is running for his brother's seat. It's another mark of the pathetic nature of the Florida GOP that they couldn't even manage to get someone to challenge Mario, who, after all, is not and incumbent (but will be from here on out). So Mario is the only Republican in the Florida congressional delegation home free with no challenge.

But he certainly isn't the only Republican with no Democrat running against him. Karen Thurman's less than vibrant party may look good relative to the staggeringly hideous freak show known as the Republican Party of Florida, but... by any other standard, it's struggling to appear like a modern political party. CD-1 in the Panhandle is the home of right-wing ideologue Jeff Miller, a laughing stock in Washington, but facing only 2 independents, Joe Cantrell and John Krause, in November. Many insist Ander Crenshaw in demonstrably stupider and more fanatic than Miller. His district, the 4th CD, crawls along the Georgia border starting just east of Tallahassee and ending just north of Jacksonville, carefully avoiding any urban areas that might not appreciate Crenshaw's peculiar brand of bigotry mixed with an IQ so minimal that it might not be measurable in any meaningful way. His only opponent in November will be an independent, Troy Dwayne Stanley. Most political observers would probably vote Cliff Stearns the least effective Republican in the Florida congressional delegation. He almost makes Miller and Crenshaw look brainy and serious. The Democrats couldn't find anyone to run against him in his landlocked, city-less district south of Crenshaw's and carefully skirting any areas touched by the 21st Century. He has a Republican primary challenger, Don Browning, and will then face Steve Schonberg, an Independent, in November.

Before I get to the races where there's some chance for a party flip-- or at least some kind of activity-- let's just go down the list where the races are just pro-forma. Corrine Brown has a primary opponent, Scott Fortune, for her safe Jacksonville/Gainesville seat and will then face the winner of a GOP primary between Mike Yost and Chris Nwasike, plus an independent, Terry Martin-Black.

I'd rate Kathy Castor, who represents Tampa (11th CD) as safe, although she's drawn 5 Republicans fighting it out amongst each other to see who she will defeat in November.

The Republicans, wisely, decided not to waste money running someone for Kendrick Meek's open seat (CD-17), which boasts a PVI of D+35. The primary features 9 Democrats and is likely to be won by state Senator Frederica Wilson, who will then face an independent, Roderick Vereen. The 8 Democrats Wilson faces in the primary for America's most Haitian district, are Marleine Bastien, Phillip Brutus, James Bush III, Scott Galvin, Shirley Gibson, Rudolph “Rudy” Moise, Yolly Roberson and Andre Williams. I guess anything can happen when there are that many candidates in a low turn-out primary.

Unfortunately sleazy sugar cane shill and DCCC power-monger Debbie Wasserman Schultz has no primary. Three Republicans will battle it out between themselves and she'll slaughter whichever one wins, along with two independents, Stanley Blumenthal and Bob Kunst.

In the 15th CD Bill Posey faces Democrat Shannon Robert. And now for the more complicated races.

Let's start with the 25th CD way down south where Mario Diaz-Balart is giving up the seat for safer ground. Joe Garcia almost beat him-- despite assistance for Diaz-Balart from the nefarious Wasserman Schultz-- in 2008. This year Wasserman Schultz is on Garcia's side but even more helpful for him will be an official Tea Party candidate who qualified, Roly Arrojo. That should kill whatever chances David Rivera had to take the seat. (Rivera has 2 Republican opponents in the primary, Paul Crespo and Mariana “Marli” Cancio.) Garcia will have no trouble beating his own primary opponent, Luis Meurice. And then, besides the official teabagger, there's also a FWP running, Craig Porter.

Way back up the peninsula to the Panhandle, we're at CD-02 when Blue Dog Allen Boyd is fighting it out with another conservative, terming-out state Senator Al Lawson in a tough primary. Boyd would have to be evaluated as an "F"-- and he was after all, the only Democrat Bush could get to sign on to conservative's never-dying #1 priority: a bill to destroy Social Security. Lawson is unlikely to be even a little better. There are 5 Republicans who smell blood in the water-- Eddie Henry, Ronald McNeil, Barbara Olschner, David Scholl and Steve Southerland. Whoever wins the two primaries will battle it out, along
with two independents, Paul McKain and Dianne Berryhill.

One of Boyd's most recent sins has been trying to foist another worthless reactionary Blue Dog on voters, in the form of Lori Edwards. Edwards is challenging progressive, grassroots Democrat Doug Tudor in the 12th CD (Polk and Hillsborough counties east of St. Petersburg), the seat being abandoned by right-wing imbecile Adam Putnam for a run at statewide office. Aside from Edwards, Doug will have to contend with 2 other conservatives-- whichever Republican wins the primary between shady attorney Dennis Ross and extremist John Lindsey, Jr.-- plus Randy Wilkinson, the official Tea Party
candidate. Wilkinson should probably guarantee a victory for Tudor in the general election. (Please consider helping Tudor here at Blue America.)

The 5th CD just opened up, when Ginny Brown-Waite faced up to the fact that her mental illness would no longer allow her to pretend to be able to work for her constituents. She endorsed Sheriff Rich Nugent on the last day of filing to prevent any more reasonable candidates to jump into the race beyond the already-qualified Jason Patrick Sager. The winner of the GOP primary will face ex-Republican/Obama supporter Jim Piccillo in November.

One of the most watched races will be in Orlando's 8th CD where the GOP will attempt to take out the most important new player the Democrats have playing for them nationally, Alan Grayson. There is a concerted effort to denigrate him-- with the local right-wing corporate media leading the charge-- but Grayson is immensely popular with the regular folks who live in the increasingly blue district and has been lucky enough to draw a GOP primary that resembles a 7 ring circus of third and fourth tier rejects-- Ross Bieling, mediocre state legislators Kurt Kelly and Daniel Webster, Hate Talk Radio host Todd Long, racist maniac Daniel Roy Fanelli, William O'Donoughue and Patricia Sullivan. It's a real clown show and free-for-all and whoever wins the GOP endorsement will then have to face not just Grayson (who polls better than any of them among Republicans) but also an official Tea Party candidate, Peg Dunmire, and an independent, George Metcalfe. (It's worth mentioning that as crazy and ignorant as Dunmire has already shown herself, Fanelli seems determined to prove he's even more ignorant and more bigoted and less qualified. It should be a wonderfully amusing race.) Please consider helping Grayson build his war-chest through Blue America.

There are two Democrats, Anita de Palma and Phil Hindahl, fighting it out to see who takes on Gus Bilirakis in the 9th CD. The 13th CD will feature a primary between incumbent Vern Buchanan and Don Baldauf and one between Democrats Rick Eaton and James Golden and whomever wins the two primaries will also face progressive independent Jan Schneider.

The 14th CD is the worst hit in Florida-- and the U.S.-- by the Republican foreclosure crisis but Connie Mack IV is probably safe, though he faces Democrat Jim Roach and independent William Maverick St. Claire.

The ill-starred 16th CD is probably safe for wealthy moron Tom Rooney, the teabagger candidate, Jim Horn, having declared himself a Democrat at the last second. He'll face Ed Tautiva in a Democratic primary.

The 22nd District is called a swing district and moderate Democrat Ron Klein seems to be having a tough time with Ron Paul Republican Allen West (who still has to beat a more mainstream Republican, David Brady). Klein also has a primary challenge, from Paul Renneisen.

And that brings us to one of the least deserving of re-election of the freshmen, corporate shill Suzanne Kosmas, a putative Democrat representing the 24th CD in central Florida. She has a primary from party activist Paul Partyka and then will face the winner of a 5 candidate GOP primary. Everyone senses she is extremely weak and generally disliked by constituents on both sides of the partisan divide. The party is unlikely to fight too hard for her since her seat is likely to be redistricted out of existence anyway.