No One Wants To Be Trumpanzee's Chief Of Staff. Can You Blame Them?

Eliana Johnson and Alex Isenstadt, in their reporting for Politico, reminded readers what a top of the pile DC job presidential chief of staff is. But for the two Trump has gone through, Reince Priebus and John Kelly? Both "left as diminished and arguably humiliated figures, unable to control the wild chaos" inside the monkey house: Mission Impossible is how people in DC see the job. Nick Ayers, a self-made multimillionaire, ex-male prostitute and former lobbyist, currently Pence's chief of staff and his closest confidant (after Mother), was Trump's first-- and only choice-- but Ayer's either:

• got passed over when someone told Trump he used to be a male prostitute or
• passed on the job when he realized he'd have to commit through the bitter, likely historic (in a very bad way) end, and what that would do to his future prospects or
• knew he'd be in trouble when the Senate started scrutinizing his personal finances and wormed out of the job or
• Trump found out Ayers had been gossiping about him and freaked.

We'll never know for sure which one or which combination is sending Ayers back to Georgia. What we do know is that a tough job in the best of circumstances, has turned into the worst job in the country-- and about to get worse: saving the Trump presidency from itself and keeping Trump and his family out of prison... while also running the United States government and trying to keep the economy from falling off a cliff.

Names being floated include neo-fascist North Carolina Congressman Mark Meadows, Blackstone managing director Wayne Berman, Citizens United president and Trumpets fanatic Dave Bossie, Chris Christie, U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, Mick Mulvaney, the acting Attorney General who-will-never-be-confirmed Matthew Whitaker, and... wait for it... Reince Priebus. The Politico team says they made a round of calls last night about the chief of staff job and "heard the same thing over and over again: No one wants it this time, and it’s an exceedingly bad phase of the administration to take the helm. Whoever takes over right now would likely be at Trump’s side when special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s report drops, when Democrats on Capitol Hill start hammering him and as the market continues to slump."

Rahm Emanuel, Obama's first-- and disastrous-- Chief of Staff, told the NY Times helpfully/smugly that "Someone needs to get the White House under control-- but the president won’t let it happen."

CNN released a new SSRS poll this morning with data from last week-- and, remember, it's been all bad news since then. Trump's job approval

• Approve- 39%

• Approve strongly- 30%
• Approve moderately- 9%
• Disapprove- 52%

• Disapprove strongly- 44%
• Disapprove moderately- 8%
• No opinion- 9%

Since Trumpanzee can't find anyone remotely qualified and willing to take the thankless job, it looks like John Kelly will stay on at least into January-- probably much longer-- despite Trump's foolish announcement Saturday that Kelly would be out before the end of the year. Trump's a moron and was bragging this morning about how proud he would be to shut down the government. Worth watching him meeting with Pelosi this morning-- Schumer was there as well-- and... that was not a Pence stuffed toy next to Trump; it actually was Mike Pence. I wonder why he didn't bother inviting Ryan, McCarthy and McConnell-- or at least McCarthy. (You can skip the first five and half minutes of Trump babbling sheer nonsense about the wall.) I bet Pelosi's approval numbers shoot up after this meeting.



What If Meadows Takes The Job?

Mark Meadows is a hard-right-- some would say neo-fascist-- asshole who chairs the Freedom Caucus. He represents North Carolina's 11th congressional district, the reddest district in the state-- with a PVI of R+14. Obama lost it both times and Trump beat Hillary 63.2 (his best showing in North Carolina) to 34.0%. The district includes all or part of 16 western North Carolina counties. The biggest, population-wise, Buncombe County, went for Hillary 55.7% to 41.1%. In the 2016 primary Buncombe was Bernie's strongest county in the state and he won it with 62.1%. In fact, Bernie won more votes on primary day than Trump did (30,913 to 8,430) and more votes than the entire GOP field did combined! The Republican legislature, however, managed to split Buncombe County up in a way as to prevent a competitive district from emerging. Most of the city of Asheville, the heart of Buncombe, was chopped off and grafted onto another ultra Republican district, Patrick McHenry's 10th, diluting the Democratic vote in both districts. The Buncombe part of Meadows' district voted D+10 last month and the Buncombe part of McHenry's district voted D+ 39.

District-wide, Meadows won 177,230 (59.2%) to 115,824 (38.7%) against Democrat Phillip Price. The counties bordering on Tennessee are among the most dependably Republican in the whole country. The 4 westernmost counties, Cherokee, Clay, Macon and Graham, routinely give Republicans massive leads in any contest. This cycle Meadows raised $1,773,788 to Price's $237,843. The DCCC ignored the race entirely.

I only bring this up to warn Democrats that if Trump picks Meadows, triggering a special election, it is a dead-end for Democrats. The district is designed to elect Republicans and until Republican gerrymandering is finally thrown out in court and Buncombe County reunited-- which will happen eventually-- NC-11 is off-limits to Democrats.

Political Survivor - Part 2

Rev. Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, the first openly LGBT Buncombe County Commissioner and executive director of Campaign for Southern Equality. Photo by John Moriarty.

-by Tom Sullivan

(Read Part 1 here.)

Kathy Sinclair knew the Courthouse Gang planned to nominate Randy Flack for chair of Buncombe County's Democratic committee in April 2007. Flack was one of Rep. Heath Shuler's district representatives and a longtime friend. Progressives would not contest that choice. They still wanted the 1st vice-chair position, which by state party rules had to be of the opposite sex from the chairman. From that perch, Sinclair could organize precincts and begin building towards November 2008.

Sinclair and her team (this writer included) recruited a second slate of candidates but planned to endorse Flack to minimize blowback.

With 300 flyers with the alternative slate printed, there would be one in every seat where the annual convention took place. Candidates prepared speeches and recruited friends to nominate them.

But Shuler's chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, got wind Flack planned to run for county chairman. With the Hatch Act to consider, Rogers gave Flack a choice between working for his longtime friend or serving as county chair. A week ahead of the convention, Flack bowed out.

Without a chair candidate, the insiders' slate fell apart. Sinclair had another in reserve.

By then the Courthouse knew of the challenge. Sinclair offered to pull their fat out of the fire. The Courthouse agreed to "allow" her to serve as chair. The remaining slate became a combination of the retiring chair's slate and hers. Progressives had hoped to provide delegates a real choice in 2007. Ironically, there was only the compromise slate left by Saturday. Only because Sinclair’s team was prepared.

Sinclair won the chairmanship at the convention by acclamation. In the county courthouse.

Kathy Sinclair

Sinclair had persisted. She had learned from her defeat. "Those progressives" had strategized and organized. When the party establishment faltered, they were positioned.

That was not the end of the transition struggle. But by 2011 when Otto DeBruhl, the longtime Register of Deeds and local Democratic "godfather," announced his retirement, a team of Obama campaign veterans was poised to make a move. Twenty-seven year-old Drew Reisinger set up a campaign overnight, lobbied the executive committee, and won the election to serve out the unexpired term. Reisinger still holds the position today.

Progressives had no animosity towards the "old guard." They simply wanted their chance to lead. Their predecessors had not adapted to the new political climate and shifting demographics. They lamented the dearth of young people in the organization even as they gave them no path to leadership.

I wrote last December:

The real split is between top-down leaders and bottom-up, grassroots activists expected to wait their turn. A top-down establishment holding onto the past with white knuckles is not going to grow the party out of the minority status in which it finds itself. The familiar and comfortable is not what the electorate is thirsting for. Years of service is not enough. Voters want bold, forward-looking leadership. Offer a new generation of activists something less and they'll stay away. That's not a promising vehicle for change to anyone under 40 years old.

Jeff Rose, a talented, 32-year-old Bernie Sanders organizer, became Buncombe County Democrats' new county chair in April 2017. Sinclair recruited him to replace her after her third term. She later ran for and won the chairmanship of NC District 11 against veteran Luke Hyde. Her leadership team included several officers under 35.

Jeff Rose

“I don’t own this seat. The seat is not mine,” Sinclair says. “If you are going to build for the future, you’ve got to have a pipeline of people” to make grassroots politics sustainable. “We opened the doors.”

Even progressive elected Democrats needed convincing to support the transition. They'd come to count on Sinclair’s fierce work ethic for their re-elections. When friends asked last January when she expected to start working on the 2016 elections, Sinclair could reply, “We started working on 2016 the day after the election in 2014.”

An election protection attorney visiting from Boston on Election Day 2014 said he’d never seen an operation like Buncombe’s. County Democrats picked up two state House seats on a day Democrats across the country took a shellacking.

But an organization doesn’t thrive when leaders hang on beyond their time. Nor will young activists join one with the institutional vigor of a men's fraternal organization.

The DNC has not yet learned that lesson. Neither have the DSCC, the DCCC, or their state-based counterparts. Their focus is caucus-building – more Democratic butts in legislative seats-- and not movement building. It's no fun serving in the minority of a legislature dominated by committed antagonists, and they will support good fundraisers before good candidates. But caucus-building doesn't inspire voters or volunteers.

If there is a moral of this story, it is this. If progressives expect to reform the Democratic Party's culture and generate new dynamism, it will take commitment and work. Probably at the county and state levels first. Sorry.

This is political "Survivor." Outwit. Outplay. Outlast. Commit to it and your position will advance. Those who don’t show up to play forfeit.

Political Survivor

-by Tom Sullivan

(Part 1 of 2)

From a post last December:

There is a lot of "old-boyism" in party politics. Mostly because people who have the time and/or resources to pursue party work are older. But older doesn't always mean more skilled; experienced doesn't always mean the right kind.

Political leaders tend to hang onto power and neglect cultivating heirs who have mastered technologies they don't understand. They would rather turn over the reins to trusted chums. Kathy Sinclair was not in the club.

Sinclair had been the driving force in organizing an unofficial John Kerry campaign in western North Carolina in 2004. The newcomer from Chicago attended a meetup at a local tavern, and with no prior experience organized hundreds of volunteers in a region that would not be considered a part of a swing state until 2008.

Dennis Kucinich winning the presidential caucus here in 2004 was a deep embarrassment to seasoned party hands. Didn't "those progressives" know favorite-son John Edwards was supposed to win? A Kucinich convention delegate won a key seat on the county executive board the next year, but bristled at the top-down culture. Party leaders stonewalled her, as she saw it, and she resigned.

The old boys got their club back. It didn't last.

The Democratic committee in Buncombe County, NC began the transition to a more grassroots organization around 2007. It is a transition the DNC has yet to make nationally. Insiders often don't know when it is time to pass the baton. They have forgotten what skilled managers know. Training their replacements is a key responsibility.

The problem here was, as it is nationally, lack of succession planning. Insiders hold power so closely for so long that there is no one to pass the baton to except another of their graying cohort.

When Ellie Richard, the Kucinich delegate, resigned her position as 1st vice chair in 2006, Sinclair, by then party secretary, ran to fill the vacancy. The position would give her responsibility for organizing precincts across the county, a power held closely by what amounted to a shadow party known downtown as the Courthouse Gang.

In North Carolina, when partisan elected officials die or resign their seats, members of their local committee elect a replacement for appointment by the governor. Keeping tight rein on who held those voting positions ensured the Courthouse could control who was in control. For Democrats, the same group votes to fill county committee vacancies.

With her organizing bona fides and name recognition, Sinclair figured the open position was within reach. She gathered names of committee members and began making phone calls to ask for their votes.

The county chairman was coy about Sinclair’s chances. All he would tell me was, “Let’s just say, she'll have competition.”

The Saturday morning of the special election, the party headquarters was filled to bursting. Sinclair’s stunned supporters whispered, “Who are these people?” Precinct officers they had never seen at headquarters appeared for this vote, summoned by the Courthouse.

Party veterans presented one of their own: JoAnn Morgan, a native, a Courthouse employee and former county chair. After a tense relationship with progressive activists, the Courthouse was re-exerting control.

Sinclair lost. The vote wasn't even close. Progressives were blindsided, and the defeat was crushing. Sinclair went home to lick her wounds.

For many activists, that would have been the end. Nevertheless, she persisted.

The fall of 2006 was a “blue moon" election in North Carolina (as 2018 will be). There were no national or statewide races in contention. The 11th District race for Congress was, locally, the marquee race atop the ticket.

Former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler ran against and defeated Rep. Charles Taylor, an eight-term Republican and associate of Russian bankers. Shuler’s was an energetic and well-funded campaign. (Full disclosure: As NCDP’s Get Out The Vote Coordinator for NC-11, I answered to the campaign.)

Progressives outside the South may have a low opinion of Shuler. (The Blue Dog left Congress in 2013 to become a Duke Energy lobbyist for a few years.) Still, sending home "Chainsaw Charlie" was a shot in the arm to local Democrats. Progressive campaign veterans now had a win under their belts and solid organizing chops.

In December 2006, a core team met at a local Greek restaurant to plan taking on the Courthouse in the party committee's 2007 spring elections.

By established practice, the county chair appointed a committee to "nominate" a slate of candidates for the six county executive posts. The list would be presented to the county convention essentially as a fait accompli. Progressives knew anyone named was likely in the pocket of the shadow party. Convention delegates deserved a choice. Sinclair and company planned to give them one.

Ensuring continuity of leadership is the chair’s responsibility, but maintaining control was a Courthouse goal. The last thing old party hands want is democracy breaking out in the Democratic Party. "Division in the party" is the traditional bugaboo veterans invoke to discourage contested races. Contested races here meant the Courthouse might not get its way.

In 2007, it would not.

(conclusion tomorrow)

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Request a copy of For The Win, my county-level election mechanics primer, at tom.bluecentury at gmail.