Message To The Florida Democratic Party: You Can't Win If You Don't Play, Bozos

 

So what happened with the $780,000 in PPP money the FDP grabbed? 

Maybe you saw the comparison between the competent Texas Democratic Party and the incompetent Florida Democratic Party that we ran yesterday. Dr. Fergie Reid, who ran the 90For90 effort to recruit state legislative candidates in every district had some thoughts he expressed to me that I asked him to jot down.

"You can’t win," he reminded me (again), "if you don’t play."

That sounds like a trite, obvious, throw away phrase; but, in politics, it’s very controversial. Between late March 2020, and the Florida state legislative filing deadline on June 12, Janelle Christensen and I made this argument to many Florida Democratic officials and prospective candidates. It’s a logical argument. However, in some political circles, the "smart" play is to NOT run a candidate in any district that is perceived to be "unwinnable."

"It’s a waste of money, we can’t afford it."

"We’ll be able to run more candidates in more districts when we start winning more."

"Running Democrats here in this part of Florida, just makes Republicans mad."

"We can’t find a good enough candidate."

"We like the Republican incumbent; he’s very friendly; we know him personally."

"You just don’t understand the way it works around here." [Yes, the fatal embrace of toxic dysfunction, a ruling principle of the FDP.]

"Why is someone from Los Angeles, so interested in Florida?"

"You are a toxic influence, and an 'outside agitator.'"

"You are a net negative to the candidate you’re trying to help; you should stop helping her, and let us handle her."

"What’s the use in running a candidate if you can’t finance them adequately to win?"

So many excuses NOT to run a Democratic candidate, from people whose job it is to run Democratic candidates! Oy Vey!!

Fergie, Janelle Christensen, Margie Stein and a whole lot of very helpful folks, ended up getting it done; a Democratic candidate running in each and every one of the 141 state legislative races on the Florida ballot in 2020; they recruited 36 of these 141, and facilitated ballot access for at least that many. That’s fully one quarter of the state legislative contests... absolutely amazing !

They asked the Florida state party for help, either in recruiting or financing ballot access; they declined, but said "good luck." They were introduced to their assigned overseer of "down-ballot” races, who had a separate budget specifically for “down-ballot" projects. We asked for help from this group; they declined, but said, "good luck."

"Janelle and Margie," Fergie told me, "made sure each candidate had basic care and nurturing; in many instances, including candidates that we did not recruit, but who needed, asked for, or would otherwise benefit from a little love and attention. Janelle and Margie did what the party would not do... talk to the candidates. 'Are you alright? Do you need anything that we can get for you? Call us if you need us.' That is basic human kindness and appreciation in action. Janelle and Margie did that. Bob Lynch helped more than a few of these candidates with early financial support and advice; Matt Rogers of Politidope provided much appreciated political experience and help to many; scores of grassroots activists gave their time and sweat to make these heroic candidates understand how appreciated their personal sacrifice truly was." Reid continued:

Some of the state party officials understood the importance of this effort and joined in with gusto. Others resisted; and continue to resist. With an opportunity to achieve parity in the Florida state Senate totally within his grasp, the Dem Caucus Chair, Senator Gary Farmer, still hasn’t endorsed Kathy Lewis in FL SD 20, a crucial seat that could give Gary Farmer shared power with his Republican counterpart, Wilton Simpson. The Dem Senate Caucus hasn’t yet called the 9 Democratic Senate candidates who are running in the perceived, "unwinnable" districts. (Do these candidates have "cooties?" Do phones not connect into their Republican districts? Do good form and manners cease to exist at the doorway to the Senate Caucus offices?) Yet, the candidates persist. They carry on. Because, if they don’t play, they can’t win. They probably define winning differently than the old guard party apparatchiks. By running and persisting, they’re winning marginal votes for Joe Biden in their districts; they’re winning hearts and minds of disaffected and previously disrespected voters who have been neglected cycle after cycle; they’re winning the argument within these disregarded communities about the environment, the economy, civil rights, voting rights, and COVID; they’re in the game, sweating, putting in the work.

That’s cool. That’s heroic. That’s high level citizenship.

Are they all going to win? Absolutely not. Some-- and remember, these are all districts the state party decided to not compete in-- are getting tantalizingly close and actually may win. And all of them are turning out votes for the Biden/Harris ticket which is perhaps even more important than Gary Farmer's and his cronies' careers of systemic corruption.





No one ever said all these candidates are going to win. Some of them are running in beet red districts where Democrats haven't run in years. Of course, that's part of the reason they may be so beet red. Rachel Brown is running for the state Senate in Lee County, which the FDP always seems too eager to write-off as "unwinnable." If she wins, the Senate flips from red to blue. But Gary Farmer was dating a Republican running in that district and he literally demanded Rachel drop out. (His GOP girlfriend lost her primary-- in a massive landslide-- and, thank goodness, Rachel didn't drop out. Today she's busy helping turn out Democratic and independent voters for Biden-Harris and she's educating voters about what Democrats stand for. "Always trying is the key," she told me this afternoon. "The second we give up any state, we lose momentum. For those who don't like the party, change it. For those who like the party and think sacrificing battle grounds with no fight... bad strategy. Even if you think you will lose, continuing to talk about medicaid expansion, Rights of Nature, a Green New Deal, will all add to the momentum that our party is lacking and shoot us into the right direction. The only thing we are doing by not having progressives run is creating intellectual deserts."

Before he became a candidate in a swing district state legislative seat in Miami-Dade where the Florida Democratic Party didn't want to run anyone (which would upset GOP powerhouse Daniel Perez), Bob Lynch had a career in Structured Products Trading on Wall Street. That included mortgages, auto, student loans, and also SBA loans. He has an intimate knowledge of loan documentation. "I can tell you with 100% certainty," he said, "that there has never been a single loan that walked into a bank and applied for itself. The Florida Democratic Party created a shell company in order to apply for this loan because political organizations were ineligible for obtaining a PPP loan. The stated purpose of this loan was to save 100 jobs, despite the fact that this entity had no payroll."

In short, Terri Rizzo, the party chair, and Juan Peñalosa, the party executive director, were committing fraud. Lynch:

Why is it that when the Florida Democratic Party was shamed into returning the loan, no jobs were cut? In fact, they hired more people... including third party consultants and contractors with multi million dollar budgets that were never accounted for.

Campaigns like Ricky Junquera’s in HD-118 were funded by this money. Subsequent donors contributions were essentially used to backfill this fraud. That’s a big deal.

When I called for Juan Peñalosa to be fired, I was attacked by the party and accused of being a racist. None of this money went to black or brown women.

Leading Florida Dem “strategists” told me that I should not kick the hornets nest and that because of Juan Peñalosa, Latino strategists such as Rosy Gonzales Spears, Luisana Pérez and many others finally had a place at the table.

All of this was a cash grab. It came down to the people who blew the election for Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson. Now they’re going to blow it again because that’s what these people do for a living.

Nobody cares about actually winning. It’s just about who can get the biggest piece of the wallet share. The Florida Dems spent over $14mm this cycle and $2mm of that went to an independent contractor to focus on only 19 races.

Following the money is extremely straight forward. Why can’t anyone tell me how any of this adds up?

On Wednesday morning, if you wake up and see that Rachel Brown won her Florida state Senate race in "red" Lee County, it means more than just the state Senate flipping blue; it will mean a whole new day dawning in Florida politics. "I think if I don't like something I should fix it," Rachel told me a few minutes ago. "There were many things the Florida Democratic party could have done to help us, requiring no money. In the future, the party should have an orientation in June, telling candidates about the 0.03 cents texting that they told us about two weeks to election day at the point where we were too busy to give them our money and they were too busy to give us the service, about robocalls, about 'data tickets,' about the hundreds of volunteer callers from around the U.S., they had the whole time, who wanted to help flip Florida. They should have one person whose job it is to call through those lists and assign them to campaigns."

She continued, explaining that she didn't want to just sit and complain about how the FDP does its business. "I know how frustrating that attitude must be to party leadership. I'm going to make sure future candidates know about these things and actually help get them started. I'm happy about the positive improvements in the party I've seen locally. For example Lee County Democrats made slate cards for the first time and distributed them to all the Democrats in the county. That's work. We all had many sleepless nights, making ads, printing, cutting and stapling flyers... and days of lit drops and phone calls and texts, and interruptions from media, emails and, of course, questionnaires that never amounted to anything. Anselm [Weber, candidates for the state House in the same area] and I had a volunteer who did 20 hours of phone calling a week. We had a couple join us, calling, making graphics, social media posts, running errands, and lit drops. I found comrades in the Haitian Creole and Spanish-speaking communities who did translations for me. I had a 15 year old volunteer who couldn't vote because of her age but wanted to help and learn from us. Local donors in the vegan community, friends sharing posts and helping make events. We had someone donate huge signs for us to paint, and then put them up for us! There's a man in Bonita Springs, just going house to house registering Democrats to vote and making sure they do... There's so much being done here. I plan on keeping up that positivity and making comrades in Lee County."

Janelle Christensen from the state environmental caucus reiterated tome today that "Running for office, especially when you know the odds are not in your favor, takes incredible dedication to the democratic system. I see the biggest barriers as the antiquated system that the State of Florida has set up for candidates to register to run, the barriers put up to keep people from qualifying and the challenges in finance reporting. Margie and I tried (and at times failed) to help candidates navigate the system designed to keep out the average person. Despite those barriers each candidate has made connections in their communities, educated about climate change, and ensured that entrenched Republicans did not get to set the narrative without challenge. I am happy Margie and I could help candidates in any way we could. I hope we can do it again." She asked me to acknowledge the incredible difference the Blue Wave Coalition has made in some critical areas... they helped register voters and get out the vote in deep red Lee (DEC Chair Gabe Spukes) and Collier (DEC Chair Annisa Karim) Counties and the DEC Chair of Sarasota County, Joanne DeVries has been an amazing advocate and support system also. Some of the best voter turnout is happening in red districts." This is a spreadsheet Janelle updates several times a day.

Why Is The Texas Democratic Party So Much More Effective Than The Florida Democratic Party?

 

West Texas' 11th and 13th congressional districts are the reddest in the state and 2 of the reddest districts in America, respectively R+32 and R+33. Although Obama inched over 20% in each in 2008, he sunk down below 20% in 2012 and in 2016 TX-11 voters gave Hillary 19.1% and TX-13 voters gave her 16.9%, the lowest and second lowest in the state. In Florida, the worst Hillary did anywhere was in Matt Gaetz's panhandle district (basically Alabama) where FL-01 (R+22) voters gave Hillary 28.2%.

The Democratic Party in Texas has a plan and so does the Democratic Party of Florida. Florida's plan is to ignore even relatively easy Republican districts-- like FL-25, where Trump only won by less than 2 points: 49.7% to 47.9% (with a PVI of R+4). They-- and their brilliant compatriots at the DCCC-- didn't bother to recruit a candidate to run for Congress and the Florida party has gone on the biggest attack campaign against anyone in the state in a legislative district within FL-25-- but against a Democrat, Bob Lynch, who they are claiming is a racist-- he isn't but the Florida Democratic Party is so aggressively stupid that they can't figure out the difference between racist and anti-racist. They were angry because Lynch was calling them out for their systemic racism and because he was calling them out for financial fraud as well.

In contrast, the plan in Texas includes working for every vote in every district and trying to win the state for Biden. Statewide, Texas' PVI is R+8. Florida's is R+2. If the whole Florida Democratic Party went for a picnic in the Everglades and they were all devoured by alligators, the PVI would probably instantly turn into D+2.

Writing for Politico yesterday, Will Ford reported that "For years, Democratic orthodoxy has maintained that flipping Texas Democratic in statewide races... means increasing turnout in urban areas and swing suburbs. But that strategy alone hasn’t worked yet-- even as favorable demographic changes, especially in urban areas, suburbs, and now even exurbs, have put the state in play. Now [there is] an effort by Democrats to broaden their strategy by targeting the most Republican areas of the state as well. If they can boost Democratic support in places like Odessa just slightly, then, together with the unprecedented early vote surge in cities, Democrats think they might finally get enough votes to flip the state. It’s not about winning in these deep-red counties and districts-- it’s about cutting into Republican margins, no matter how large."

It isn't that tough of a concept to understand and this cycle, when they realized the Florida Democratic Party doesn't have the collective brain power to figure it out, Janelle Christensen from the state Environmental Caucus and Fergie Reid from 90For90, took it upon themselves to recruit candidates in every open legislative seat in the state. The state party was so grateful that they gave them medals. Just kidding. The state party was furious and hampered their efforts every step of the way, even threatening and intimidating Democratic candidates, insisting they drop out of the race.

“To win statewide in Texas, we believe Democrats must continue to win the large urban counties, run close or win the exurban counties and reduce the big Republican advantages in rural areas and in small towns, at least marginally,” said Matt Angle, a founder of The Lone Star Project, a PAC that consults on Democratic political work statewide. “In 2018 Beto O’Rourke met and slightly exceeded the votes we thought he needed in urban and suburban counties. However, Cruz was able to run up the score to such an extent in the small towns and rural markets that he saved his seat in the Senate.”

Before November 3rd, it’s impossible to know whether Republican margins will remain high enough in areas like Odessa to save Texas for Republicans. Early turnout has surged across the state to such historic levels that the country’s best forecasters aren’t entirely sure how to model these new voters, especially without party registration data. Cook recently moved the race to a tossup, however, and Republicans seemed be to sensing this danger as well. In Odessa, gazing at the city map from his desk in September, Logan observed that Republicans seemed to be working harder than usual in the deep red district. “The Republicans have bought $405,000 of ads in the district. Normally they don’t buy media here. They never had to—they just relied on the county party. That tells me they’re worried.”

...For decades, motivated Democrats in West Texas have wished for more attention, resources and public engagement from Democratic Party higher ups, at both the state and national levels, but those party leaders have often balked at pumping more dollars and energy into the region, especially when many Democrats there feel so outnumbered they don’t even bother to vote or organize. Higher powers tend to ask for proof of progress first. It’s hard to make progress, though, without resources and attention in the first place-- a Catch-22 that has long plagued Democratic organizers in the region.

This pattern was finally interrupted by Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate campaign. As a Democrat running a statewide, he did something revolutionary: He campaigned in every county in the state, including West Texas, where his performance helped convince party leaders and activists that caring about those counties could actually make a difference. In Lubbock, the largest city in West Texas outside of El Paso, which is often spoken of as a separate entity, O’Rourke received 35 percent of the vote, compared to Clinton’s 28 percent just two years earlier. He also shaved margins in Ector County, earning just over 30 percent, compared to Clinton’s 28—marginal increases that were seen elsewhere in small towns. These numbers were also far better than the 2014 senate race, in which Democratic candidate David Alameel received just 15 percent of the vote in Ector and 19 percent in Lubbock.

...When asked about his decision to embrace the state’s reddest areas, O’Rourke frequently credits Stuart Williams, the state party’s lone field organizer in West Texas, based out of Lubbock. Williams, who has worked in Democratic politics in the area since he was a teenager, starting as a precinct chair, is revered by West Texas Democratic organizers... O’Rourke first met Williams in Lubbock in January 2017, on a tour through the state months before he declared his candidacy. When the congressman asked Williams what the campaign needed to do in West Texas, Williams had a simple reply: “Y’all got to show up!”

...But when I asked whether he received pushback against this strategy in Democratic circles, he almost laughed. “Tons. They all said ‘your vote’s in Houston and the cities.’” West Texan voters were equally surprised: O’Rourke said some voters in West Texas told him they hadn’t seen a statewide Democratic candidate visit since LBJ.

...In Lubbock, Williams saw that O’Rourke was able to capitalize on an increase in Democratic organizing energy following Trump’s election. Activists had started reaching out to him locally, to see how they could help, and Williams ran successfully for county chair. “I can tell you without equivocation, that when I saw people move toward getting more involved … who changed the game in rural areas was Donald Trump,” said Williams. “Rural people aren’t stupid. The president becomes more of a liability every day.”

...With O’Rourke’s performance in West Texas as proof of concept, higher powers in the Democratic Party have began to at least turn their heads towards the deepest red areas of Texas. “We have thousands of precinct captains in rural areas across the state, more state county chairs than ever before,” Abhi Rahman, the state party’s communications director, told me. “We’re putting a thousand field organizers and canvassers across the state, including in many rural areas, and we’ve invested significantly in our rural programs, where we aim to keep the margin down in rural areas so we can flip the state in November. We also set a goal of engaging 100,000 more rural voters, which would be a 5 percent rural turnout increase in 2020.” ... The TDP is doing tons more work in rural areas than it did in 2016. There really is no baseline to compare this effort to.

They could compare it to the FDP. If nothing else, it will make them feel great. Bob Lynch is running for the state House in a Miami-Dade swing district held by one of the GOP's most powerful members, Dan Perez. The Florida state party has not only done nothing to help Lynch, they have attacked him viciously and done everything they could to make sure their pal Perez keeps the seat. This morning, Lynch told me that "If there was ever a time to go on a full all out offensive, this was the year. We are the Covid Capital of the US, we have a historically unpopular Governor who has hitched his wagon to a historically unpopular president and we are going into redistricting as a result of the census."

Lynch further noted that "Democrats in Texas and Georgia have figured this out; why haven’t we in Florida? The answer is simple. The people in power, like Gary Farmer and Joe Geller, have cushy gigs in the minority and don’t want to upset their Republican bosses. It is despicable and people are dying as a result. The state of Florida is a business and everything is for sale. Politicians, the media, you name it. Florida and Miami-Dade Dems are more interested in making sure their consultants get paid than getting candidates elected. There needs to be a full audit of the Florida Dems once this election is over. Where did all of this money go?"

Will The Anti-Red Tsunami Sweep The Democrats Back Into Control Of State Legislatures-- Yes, But Why Not Florida?

 

Florida Man x 3

Reporting for National Journal, Mary Frances McGowan and Leah Askarinam wrote about the state of the crucial-- but largely ignored-- down-ballot battles over control of state legislatures. In a tsunami-- even though it's primarily a rejection of Trump-- Republicans on all levels are staring into the wide open maw of defeat. In 2010, two years after Obama's big win, due almost entirely to Democratic Party complacency and incompetence on every level, 21 state legislative chambers flipped from blue to red. The Republicans used these wins to further gerrymander state after state into GOP bastions, particularly North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Texas. (Democrats did basically the same thing in Illinois and Maryland.)

"Ten years later," wrote McGowan and Askarinam, "Democrats control 39 legislative chambers out of 98 total (excluding Nebraska, which is unicameral). Republicans are on defense, and Democratic groups are stressing the importance of having a seat at the table during redistricting, not to mention the importance of policy goals like expanding Medicaid and increasing voter access." They warn that it's no easy task. Republicans drew the boundaries of the districts being fought over and the Republican State Leadership Committee has had "a gargantuan financial war chest" to work with. Blue America is trying to boost the chances of progressive candidates across the country and you can contribute to any or all of them by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right. National Journal delineates the 10 most likely chambers to flip a week from Tuesday.

The 67 seat Minnesota Senate, which currently has 35 Republicans and 32 Dems, is probably the surest bet, with 10 Republican-held districts that Governor Tim Walz carried in 2018. The Dems need to flip just 2 of them and are likely to flip at least 5.

In Arizona, both Houses are controlled by the GOP and both look flippable in a state that is trending blue and where Biden is way ahead and where Democrat Mark Kelly looks sure to beat GOP incumbent Martha McSally in a US Senate landslide. Governor Ducey is loathed because of his disastrous pandemic response and state legislators are going to get walloped because of him (and Trump). "More so than in other state legislatures," wrote McGowan and Askarinam, "the results from the two chambers are likely to reflect one another. Arizona is divided into 30 legislative districts, each of which is represented by one state senator and two state House members. Republicans hold a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 31-29 majority in the House. Democrats should be able to win both but, like Minnesota , this isn't going to have any impact on the redrawing of district lines. (Arizona has an independent commission doing that job.)

Texas though, is a real battle-royale where the ability of the GOP to gerrymander is very much at stake. This one is CRUCIAL. Please contribute to Lorenzo Sanchez, Eric Holguin and Erin Zwiener here. Right now there are 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats in the state House and the Democrats are heavily targeting the 9 Republican-held seats that Beto O’Rourke carried in his 2018 Senate race, focusing on blue-trending suburban areas near Houston and Dallas, where Trump has become an albatross around the neck of every Republican. If the Democrats flip this chamber, the repercussions nationally will be humongous because GOP plans to gerrymander newly blue congressional districts will have to be scrapped.

The Iowa House has a 53-47 Republican majority. The Democrats need 4 seats to take back control. The legislature doesn’t draw the legislative boundaries but it gets to approve or disapprove them. Democrats control 3 of the 4 congressional districts and the 4th is an open seat where J.D. Scholten is running the most energetic campaign in the state. It looks like Biden is going to win the state, as will Theresa Greenfield, who is leading GOP Senator Joni Ernst by 1.8 points on average.

The Michigan House looks ready to flip back to the Democrats as well. Right now the GOP holds 58 seats to the Democrats' 52 but Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carried Oakland County by 17 points in 2018 and the Democrats are fighting hard to pick up seats there and in other suburban districts.

I would call it a much longer shot, but Democrats feel they can take back both the House and Senate in North Carolina, in great part because a federal court declared the old map unconstitutional, the Democrats had a very successful recruiting season and because both Governor Roy Cooper and Biden are surging right now. The Dems need 5 state Senate seats (and 2 are sure things). "The path to netting the other three," wrote McGowan and Askkarinam, "is scattered across the state, with promising races taking place in Raleigh, Winston-Salem, and the Piedmont region. Democrats point to Senate District 24 in Alamance County, where Democratic veteran J.D. Wooten is running against Republican Amy Galey, as a bellwether. Trump carried that district by 12 points in 2016; if Wooten makes it across the finish line, the chamber is likely to follow. In the state House, Democrats need to flip six seats to take a majority. The landscape is a bit rockier than in the Senate, due to a handful of vulnerable incumbents whom the party needs to protect. However, the party has identified nine Republicans they see as vulnerable."

Pennsylvania should be easier, where the state House has 110 Republicans and 93 Dems but with plenty of suburban targets around Philly and Harrisburg for the Democrats to win in, along with Biden. The Democrats are also likely to flip 3 state Senate seats, but they need a 4th (in Lancaster) and if they win it it will mean the anti-red tsunami is bigger than most people expect.

The toughest of the 10 chambers is the Georgia state House, where Democrats need to pick up 16 seats. They'll win seats but probably more like 7 or 8 than 16.

That leaves a chamber that should be a relatively do-able pick up unmentioned: the Florida state Senate, which the top Senate Democrat, Gary Farmer, seems absolutely determined to lose. The state Senate consists of 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats, so the Dems need 3 for a tie and 4 for a majority. It's almost as if they made a deal with the Republicans to go after 2, which will leave the Senate with a 21-19 GOP majority. Early on, the Democrats tried recruiting failed gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink to run for the open SD-20 seat (parts of Hillsborough, Polk and Pasco counties). She declined but the candidate who nearly won the seat against Tom Lee, the retiring incumbent, in 2018 is in it to win it. The state party has not been welcoming, at least in part because Lewis is black and they try to prevent minority candidates from running in "white" districts. (Yes, it's the worst Democratic state party in the country-- or maybe tied for worst with Ohio's.) Right now, it looks like Lewis is going to beat far right nut-job Daniel Burgess, despite Farmer and the state party. That'll make it a tied chamber; one more seat and they have a win.

Dr. Fergie Reid of 90For90, who helped recruit so many of the Florida candidates told me this morning that "Some Democrats are on offense in Florida; many of these Democrats are playing a beautiful style of 'team electoral politics.' 2020 Florida Democrats are contesting 83 of the 84 GOP held State Legislative Districts; 11 out of 11 in the State Senate and 72 out of 73 in the State House. In the 14 GOP held congressional districts, Democrats are contesting 12. Two Republicans were given walkovers,' on the candidate filing deadline date in April, Mario Diaz-Balart in the prime swing district in the state-- CD 25-- and Neal Dunn in CD 2. Recent polling shows serious Biden strength, and serious Trump weakness in Florida. Republicans are fearful of an impending 'shellacking' and rightfully so. Their great fear is losing control. If they lose either the state House or state Senate, Florida Dems will have a say in the next decade’s electoral maps. Kathy Lewis for SD 20 is the 'rate limiting step' to this Democratic 'power possibility' in Florida. Moreover, the state Senate candidates in todo are the key drivers for a potential Biden overperformance throughout the state: Karen Butler for SD 1, Stacey Peters for SD 5, Heather Hunter for SD 7, Scott Fretwell for SD 17, Kathy Lewis for SD 20, Tony Eldon for SD 21, Katherine Norman for SD 23, Corinna Robinson for SD 25 and Rachel Brown for SD 27; the other Florida Senate candidates are already receiving max support. Help the neglected candidates for maximum effect. Sprint to the finish line. Leave no doubt.

Who's missing from this photo-- Matt Gaetz, Ted Yoho, Joe Gruters, Daniel Perez, Bill Galvano, Dane Eagle, Ashley Moody?

The most unpopular governor in America, Ron DeSantis, is not on the ballot. If voters want to make him pay for his pro-COVID/anti-Florida agenda, the can only take it out on his cronies in the legislature. And they should. DeSantis has killed 16,110 Floridians and the state's case total is 760,389-- 35,404 cases per million Floridians, far worse than any big state in the country. On Kathy Lewis' website, is a message about the pandemic: "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida has seen unprecedented numbers of citizens lose their livelihoods and having to navigate an unemployment system that was seemingly designed to deter users from accessing much needed unemployment assistance. Florida’s response to COVID-19 has been disorganized and lacking in measures focused on saving lives. Kathy believes we need a robust and thorough plan developed with the expert advice of scientists and public health professionals to deal with the current pandemic and to prepare Florida for future pandemics with our citizens’ health and safety as our priority."

Bob Lynch is running for the Florida state House held by a top GOP leader-- who is protected by the Florida Democratic Party-- Daniel Perez. Bob explained that "The reason Florida is not on the list is because Florida Democrats made the calculated decision to not be on the list. This was largely led by Gary Farmer, who has a cushy gig in the minority, and he doesn’t want to rock the boat. Cutting deals with Republicans is his job. Representing Florida is not."

"There is," he continued, "a solid chance we flip Georgia, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and even freakin’ South Caroline Blue.  You’d think that Florida Dems would take advantage of this historic opportunity to go on a full court press to flip the Florida State Senate and House going into a redistricting year. Instead, Gary Farmer and his cronies decided to spend all of their time and money on Senate District 9 and 39 because that’s where their consultants and vendors can get paid the most and send the kickbacks all up the chain. They have not only completely ignored a historic slate of Senate candidates featuring @Butler4FLSen, @KathyLewisforFL, @Rachel_D_Brown, @NormanFlSenate, @CorinnaRobinson, @HeatherForSD7, @fretwellforfl, and @tonyforflorida, they have openly worked against some of them. Any one of these candidates could change the balance of power in Florida for a decade. Yet Gary and Juan Peñalosa have done everything in their power to abandon and torpedo these candidates. At a certain point, you have to ask yourself why?"

One very prominent candidate who is likely to be serving in the legislature next year and asked me not to divulge his name told me that "The Democrats are bringing a water gun to a bazooka fight with the Florida state legislature. Rather than help Democratic candidates win crucial races across the state, they're leaving them high and dry while actively working against candidates challenging Republican authority. It's genuinely disgusting how little party leadership actually wants to take back the state for the Democrats, especially considering Florida is a swing state with redistricting right around the corner. Republicans will fundraise and promote all of their candidates and shower them with buckets of cash to win. While the Democrats will be like 'OMG thanks for running XD' while doing absolutely nothing to help them win. It's embarrassing. One would think with the GOP's agenda sprinting towards fascism, the Dems might want to help out in critical races. But no, they'd rather be in the minority and collect a check. Holy shit what a petulant opposition party!"

Matt Rogers of Politidope-- and a legislative candidate himself in Virginia-- told me that for the last year, he's "been laser-focused on flipping Florida's 29 Electoral College votes for whomever the Democratic nominee ended up being. During that time, I've heard blood-boiling discussion of inspiring Democratic candidates being recruited OUT of races, party leaders wishing black candidates were 'more attractive' and Party 'leaders' themselves going on Twitter can saying they don't want to 'waste' resources on the brave candidates I've been so fortunate to work alongside with. Nevertheless, we persist. We've got only a few days left to raise money (until October 29th at 11:59 PM) for them. Let's do everything we can to help them and, in effect, help flip Florida's 29 Electoral College votes against the fascist in the White House.

Why Does Ron DeSantis Seem So Determined To Make His Pandemic Even Worse For Floridians?

 

Florida Man

On Thursday, Florida reported another 2,541 COVID cases and another 172 deaths (by far the worst in the U.S.). Only 7 full countries had more deaths on Thursday than Florida:

• India- 1,144
• U.S.A.- 942
• Brazil- 818
• Mexico- 601
• Argentina- 390
• Colombia- 178
• Iran- 175

Yesterday, Florida reported another 2,847 new cases-- bringing the state's total to 695,887, third worst after much bigger California and Texas. In fact, Florida now has 32,400 cases per million residents, compared to Texas' 26,243 cases per million and Califoirnia's 20,249, which is below the national average (21,767). Florida has 417,626 active cases, are than any state by far. In short, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, aided by Trump and a Republican-controlled legislature, has turned Florida into a COVID-basket case.

Yesterday DeSantis decided to make his pandemic worse by allowing restaurants at operate full capacity and preventing even the worst hit cities and counties from ordering businesses to close. This while new daily cases are spiking like mad in a dozen counties. Yesterday these were the 10 counties reporting new cases worse than some entire states!

• Miami-Dade- 503
• Broward- 191
• Palm Beach- 157
• Orange- 157
• Hillsborough- 155
• Duval- 120 (where Trump hel;d a super-spreader event Thursday night)
• Alachua- 98
• Polk- 96
• Brevard- 92
• Leon- 88

DeSantis announced that all restaurants in Florida will be allowed to operate with at least 50 percent capacity regardless of local rules. Additionally, the governor says local governments will have to justify any capacity restrictions between 50 and 100 percent. Those would require state approval... The governor says he will not allow local governments to close restaurants. As he has stated this week, he does not believe restaurant closures have made a difference in limiting the spread of COVID-19... [B]ars will be allowed to operate with at least 50 percent capacity, just like restaurants.

Meanwhile, DeSantis' boss, Donald, is reported to have "lost patience" with Dr. Robert Redfield the head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Preventio, "as well as with the other public health experts on his coronavirus team because their sober messaging on the future of the pandemic clashes with his rosy assessments.

Trump believes that breakthroughs are not coming swiftly enough, according to people familiar with the President's thinking. Trump's frustrations have caused some to question whether Redfield is on the chopping block, but a Trump adviser said they did not expect the President to make major staffing changes before the election.

The ever-looming threat, Trump's public undermining of the CDC chief and Redfield's tendency to fold to the White House are taking a toll on CDC staff, from top to bottom, employees say. Some have questioned whether their work is making a difference and others have even considered resigning-- and whether the sagging spirits may be hampering pandemic response.

Eight current and former public health officials described for CNN a crushing environment at the agencies charged with the coronavirus response brought on by a President intent on contradicting critical public health messaging and downplaying the threat of the virus, politically motivated pressure from the White House and baseless allegations from political appointees that government scientists are part of a disloyal "deep state."

"The morale is as low as I've ever seen it and we have no confidence in our leadership," a CDC official said. "People are miserable and it's a shame because this pandemic is still flying away and we still need a robust public health response."

Inside the White House, Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci have struggled to compete with the growing influence of Trump's new favorite coronavirus adviser, Dr. Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist with no public health or infectious disease expertise whose views are wildly out of step with leading public health experts. Birx has told people around her she is "distressed" with the direction of the task force and is uncertain how much longer she can continue to serve as the coronavirus task force coordinator.

And at the FDA, the agency's top career officials penned a Washington Post op-ed earlier this month reasserting the agency's independence and commitment to science amid political pressure from the White House and "deep state" allegations from the President.

In a nod to the dispirited mood engulfing his agency, Redfield registered his disappointment during a Senate hearing on Wednesday with since-departed top Department of Health and Human Services spokesman Michael Caputo's wild accusations that CDC scientists are part of a "deep state" engaging in "sedition."

Back to Florida for a moment. Matt Dixon reported at Politico that on Friday Bloomberg announced that he’s blanketing Florida airwaves with a $40 million TV ad buy, the first since he pledged to spend $100 million there to defeat Donald. "The massive buy, being made through the Bloomberg-funded Independence USA PAC, comes the same week that nearly 5 million vote-by-mail ballots are being sent to Florida voters in the the start of what effectively is a month-long Election Day in the nation’s largest swing state."

Bloomberg told Dixon that "This fall, the path to the presidency goes through Florida-- and with mail-in ballots going out this week, voters will soon start deciding who gets its 29 electoral votes. That’s why we’re doing everything in our power to tell the story of Donald Trump’s failed presidency and why we need Joe Biden as the next president of the United States."

Florida Republicans can't stop his ads but they are trying to stop him and others for paying the fines of felons so they can vote. Former Orlando Congressman Alan Grayson, one of the first supporters of the idea of re-enfranchising felons who had served their time, told me that "The threat to investigate Bloomberg is the best illustration so far of the psychopathology of the Florida GOP. Florida voted by almost two-to-one in favor of the principle that no one can take away your right to vote, even if you’re a convicted felon. That’s one of those 'INALIENABLE' rights-- a right that you cannot lose-- that the Founders said was 'endowed by the Creator.' But to the Florida GOP, that’s just LOL."





NPR reported yesterday that Ashley Moody, Florida's crackpot, right-wing attorney general, urged on by Matt Gaetz, the furthest right of the Florida congressional delegation, is demanding law enforcement agencies open an investigation into Bloomberg's contribution to the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition. The Republicans are whining that Bloomberg and other contributing to the Coalition are trying to buy their votes.

Northeast Florida state House candidate Joshua Hicks, endorsed yesterday by President Obama, isn't buying DeSantis' bullshit. "Last I checked, the pandemic is still present," he told me, "we haven't found a cure, people are still getting sick and dying. Yet, today's decision to reopen Florida by Gov. DeSantis was another example of his severe incompetence and his obvious need to please Donald Trump. This decision made by the Governor places lives in danger-- young and old-- and he's playing political games with all of our lives. It's shameful and unbecoming of a Governor. Instead of addressing this virus head on, the Governor has been spreading lies and hiding the facts from the people. He continues to do so and I look forward to holding him fully accountable when I'm elected to the Florida Legislature on November 3rd. Or, he added... as The Atlantic put it Thursday: "In present-day politics, we have one party that consistently seeks advantage in depriving the other party’s adherents of the right to vote."

Bob Lynch is a state House candidate in Miami-Dade, running against one of DeSantis' top allies in the legislature, Daniel Perez. Bob told me yesterday that "You have to remember that Ron DeSantis is doing this AFTER doing nothing to shore up our state’s unemployment, deliberately making it hard to access Federal PUA money, and not rejecting the extra $300 a week in Federal unemployment assistance. So what choice do people have who work in the restaurant industry? Go to work and get sick while bringing the virus into your home or stay home and get no assistance and risk starvation? If we had had a comprehensive state and Federal response since he beginning of the Pandemic we would not be facing this brutal decision.  We should have acted like other modern countries and paid people to stay home. Instead, the Republicans just want to send people to their deaths while providing immunity to business owners that don’t follow whatever messed up version of the CDC guidelines appear from day to day. There is no gray area on the science here. Dining indoors helps spread the virus. The negligence is criminal. The GOP has a very fluid position on states and local rights. They are all in favor of them as long as The will of the people is bent to their vision of what’s 'best'."

Lynch said that "Residents of Florida already overwhelmingly approved a ballot initiative in 2018 to restore voting rights for felons. There was no provision for a poll tax to make them pay their fees. Michael Bloomberg, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan have honorably stepped in to assist in this effort as many ex-felons can’t even find out what they will be required to pay to exercise their Constitutional rights. Overturning the will of the people is nothing new in Florida. It happened with Medical Marijuana, it happened with disenfranchising felons, and it will happen again. Hopefully not with the results of the election in November. DeSantis will not provide a critical check on the Trump Regime and Florida Republicans will never provide a check on DeSantis. Our only hope is to vote them all out and elect Democrats who believe in science and the constitution. People will continue to die due to Ron DeSantis’ decisions."

If Rachel Brown wins her state Senate race in Lee County on November 3 you will read the next day that the Democrats, despite the party leadership-- and particularly despite Gary Farmer-- have flipped the chamber from red to blue. This morning Brown told me, referring to DeSantis and his puppets in the legislature, that "they are sacrificing people, school children, for the sake of 'normalcy.' A leader does not pretend everything is ok. A leader deals with an issue head on and is honest with their people. It was absolutely devastating, revolting, apocalyptic... the news. Now that the schools have adapted in these tough times, now this? Now they will have to deal with parents not sending their kids to school with a mask? ... Now it's not safe to go to the grocery store... or go out and vote? That was their plan all along. Discusting."

How Toxic Will DeSantis Be-- Not To Mention Trump-- For Down-Ballot Republican Incumbents In Florida?

 

COVID Ron with COVID Don

Polling shows that Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is the second most hated governor in the U.S. Just 29% of Floridians say he's handled the pandemic well (and that includes the 4% who think he's handled it "very well"). Who's worse? Iowans say Kim Reynolds, who only had 26% willing to say she's done a good job on the pandemic. As of yesterday, there were 685,439 cases in Florida-- 31,914 cases per million residents, the worst in the country outside of Louisiana. Florida has active 453,331 cases (worst in America by far), which means there will be more deaths added to DeSantis' already dismal 13,324.

DeSantis is one lucky-ducky he's not up for reelection in November. Still, he's dragging other Republicans down the drain even while not on the ballot. So yesterday, he took a cue from his lord and master and decided to play the Law & Order card. Reporting for CNN, Gregory Lemos and Allen Kim wrote that DeSantis released a sweeping set of proposals on Monday, probably unconstitutional, that would dramatically crack down on people who attend protests that turn violent or disorderly by threatening them with a mix of felonies and increased jail time.

DeSantis said the proposal, which was introduced at a Monday press conference-- called the Combatting Violence, Disorder and Looting and Law Enforcement Protection Act-- would impose stiff criminal penalties for actions such as blocking roadways, disrupting restaurants or toppling monuments.

"You see videos of these innocent people eating dinner and you have these crazed lunatics just screaming at them and intimidating them on a public accommodation," DeSantis said. "You aren't going to do that in state of Florida."

Micah Kubic, executive director of the ACLU of Florida, responded to the proposal in a statement, calling it "undemocratic and hostile to Americans' shared values."

"This effort has one goal: silence, criminalize, and penalize Floridians who want to see justice for Black lives lost to racialized violence and brutality at the hands of law enforcement," Kubic said.

Among the proposals is a measure allowing motorists to be waived of liability should they happen to kill or injure a protester with their vehicles while "fleeing for safety from a mob."

The governor said the legislation also enables the state to use RICO liability against anyone who organizes or funds these kinds of "disorderly assemblies," and he cited the handling of Portland's protest as an example of what not to do.

...According to the governor's office, the next legislative session commences in March 2021 but committees will begin meeting later this year to begin the process of crafting the language of the bill and finding sponsors.

I asked some of the candidates running down-ballot how they think DeSantis' cooked up "law & order" scheme is likely to impact their own races. Janelle Christensen, president of the Florida Environmental Caucus, isn't a candidate but she sure was as disturbed by DeSantis' grandstanding as many across the state were. "As Floridians watch their homes flood in the aftermath of Hurricane Sally and are forced to evacuate in the middle of a pandemic," she said last night, "DeSantis ignores their plight. Instead, he moves to pass a law that potentailly violates our First Amendment rights and crushes home rule."

Adam Christensen (no relation-- other than their shared determination to protect the environment of the state they both love), is running for the congressional seat Ted Yoho has been pushed out of-- more on that anon. Adam got right to the point: "It’s like a 2 year old throwing a tantrum. The man wants to make murder legal as long as it’s done with a car.  We simply don’t have time for his foolishness."

Just north of Adam's congressional district, Joshua Hicks is favored to oust a Republican incumbent representing Nassau and part of Duval. Joshua told me that "This 'proposal' is just an election year stunt by the Governor because this team knows Donald Trump is in trouble in Florida. This attempt to silence the voices of Floridians across the state is a pathetic and unconstitutional attempt at a power-grab. Listen, protests should remain peaceful, as we demand justice and an end to systemic racism across the country. But this proposal simply has one goal: to silence and penalize anyone who wants to speak out. That's not okay. As a member of the state legislature, I will oppose this unconstitutional legislation from DAY ONE. My opponent would support it-- because he supports everything the Governor does. We need leaders; not followers. I believe the governor's attempt to silence our voices will actually do the opposite this November: it'll fire up more young voters to go to the polls, helping Democrats win up and down the ballot, and electing Joe Biden our next President."

And down at the southern tip of the state, Bob Lynch, is challenging Trumpist power-monger Daniel Perez in a swingy Miami-Dade district the Florida Democratic Party preferred to leave without a challenger. Today Lynch told me that "On one hand, it will be music to the ears of a sizable percentage of my district, which includes radically right-wing Cubans whose Spanish language propaganda and fear mongering about the socialist/communist,s rivals anything you will hear on Fox News, OANN, or evening QAnon. On the other, Latinos in Miami-Dade County are quickly starting to see through this bullshit. The state is falling apart, unemployment is a disaster, traffic is a mess, and DeSantis left older Floridians to die as a sacrifice to the economy. Castro and Chavez/Maduro were brutal dictators, they share far more in common with Trump, the Saudis, Erdogan, Netanyahu, and President Xi than anyone else.  The brutal scare tactics that Trump Mini-Me And Fisher Price Fascist, Ron DeSantis, is employing are a distraction from his disastrous time in the governor’s mansion. We need to focus on races like mine because taking out a sycophant like my opponent offers Floridians the opportunity to provide a crucial check on the incompetence and corruption of Ron DeSantis. All of the Florida Republicans fall in line with Trump/DeSantis and every less one of them in office means leas dead Floridians."

Professor Cindy Banyai is the progressive Democrat running for open congressional seat in southwest Florida-- and it didn't take much for her to see right through DeSantis' scam. "This is nothing more than an election year ploy from a floundering politician trying desperately to grease his way to favor with Trump. This clearly limits our Constitutional right to free speech and assembly and provides an unnerving amount of power to persecute critics. I'm also concerned about the encroachment on home rule with such state level budget mandates. Between this and Trump's DOJ declaring New York, Seattle, and Portland "anarchist jurisdictions" we should all be worried about the United States becoming a facist dictatorship under martial law. There has never been a more important time to elect countervailing voices to the Florida legislature and US national offices."

The Country's Political Future Runs Through State Legislative Elections

 

In Florida, the Republicans have pretty close to a one-party state government. Ron DeSantis is the most disliked governor in America, but he's still the governor (and not up for reelection in November). The state House has 71 Republicans and 46 Democrats. The state Senate has 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats. The state House is going to need concerted Democratic effort for several cycles to flip it. The Florida Democratic Party is just not capable of that and is, in fact, worse than useless. Democrats would have a better chance to flip seats if the state party ceased to exist. The Senate looks more promising, right? 40 seats... just flip 3 and it's a 20-20 power-sharing tie. Flip 4 and Florida is no longer a one-party state. But there's a problem-- his name is Gary Farmer and he's a hack politician from a deep blue district in Broward County. He's slated to be Minority Leader in 2021 and desperately does not want to be Majority Leader. So he has made sure the state party is only targeting two seats. That guarantees the GOP maintains their dominance. Gary Farmer likes being dominated.

Maybe if they targeted 5 or 6 seats, they could win 3 or 4. Imagine that! It would be enough to stop the Republican decennial gerrymander plan in its tracks. The party is forever whining they have no money. Why should anyone give them any. They suck! I bet if they made a real concerted effort to win the Senate back, they'd be flooded with contributions.

A Florida political expert told me that the map drawing "will go like last time. The Senate GOP will try to gerrymander, the House GOP may or may not go along with it, and the Florida Supreme Court will end up deciding it, as it has the right to do."

Bob Lynch, the Democrat running for the Miami-Dade swing district held by Daniel Perez put the problem very clearly. "There is no other state and no other major county that has Republican leadership on down the line. We are also quickly approaching 14 thousand dead Floridians. Coupled with the disastrous unemployment system, and refusal to take the Medicaid expansion in the middle of a Pandemic and there has never been a better time for Democrats to compete for every seat. With the Census and redistricting coming up, we cannot afford to ignore any race. Any seat could be the difference between Florida being under Republican control or us having a say for the next decade. Investing in my race not only makes sense given the dynamics of my district, but it also forces my opponent to play defense and ties up resources. This is a pure return on investment for minimal capital play. One we can repeat all over the state if Democrats decide they really want to compete. So far that seems unclear."

Nationally, the DLCC-- Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee-- (and its National Democratic Redistricting Committee) aren't doing a bad job-- certainly much better than the Florida Democratic Party is. Their top targets appear to be chambers in North Carolina, Texas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa and... not the most obviously flippable chamber of all-- the Florida state Senate. After Farmer failed to recruit Alex Sink to run in the 20th SD, he refused to back Kathy Lewis, a black woman who nearly ousted Tom Lee, the incumbent, in 2018, with no help from the Democratic Party. Now Lee is gone and Lewis-- with all that name recognition-- is up against a right-wing extremist. She would be the tie vote. But Farmer refuses to budge and just threatens, bullies, and blusters.

What can gerrymandering by state legislatures accomplish? Well, in 2012, House Democratic candidates won 59.6 million votes-- 1.4 million more than did House Republicans. But Republicans won 234 seats in Congress, compared with 201 Democrats. There are state legislative elections in 43 states this year-- for 86 chambers. Republicans are playing defense and worry about toxicity at the top of the ticket. Will an anti-Trump wave turn into an anti-Republican wave that wipes out scores of political careers across the nation?

Next year 17 states are using bi-partisan redistricting commissions instead of state legislatures to redraw the post-census maps:

• Alaska
• Arizona
• California
• Colorado
• Hawaii
• Idaho
• Iowa (although the state legislature gets to approve or reject it)
• Michigan
• Missouri
• Montana
• New Jersey
• New York (although, like Iowa, the state legislature gets to approve or reject it)
• Ohio (a new plan that is probably unworkable)
• Pennsylvania (for the state legislature-- which still draws the congressional districts)
• Utah
• Vermont (must be approved by the state legislature)
• Washington

Writing for Roll Call last January, Jacob Fischler reported that "The state legislative campaign arms of both parties said wins in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin would help win congressional majorities for the next decade. Those six states send a total of 116 representatives to the U.S. House-- more than a quarter of the entire voting body. Republicans outnumber Democrats in their combined delegations, 70-46. Both chambers of the legislature in all six states are now held by Republicans, and all empower their legislatures to draw congressional district lines." He rates Pennsylvania as the likeliest target, Georgia as the toughest.

The DLCC is spending $50 million to flip chambers and at least one allied group, Swing Left, is also spending. Fischler wrote that "Flipping a chamber in Texas, as in Florida, Georgia or Wisconsin, would break a Republican trifecta-- control in both legislative chambers and the governor’s office. In all states but Minnesota, one party controls both legislative chambers going into the 2020 elections. Similar, for redistricting purposes, is North Carolina. The state doesn’t give its governor, Democrat Roy Cooper, the power to veto maps drawn by the Republican-controlled legislature. [National Democratic Redistricting Committee spokesman Patrick] Rodenbush called the path to flipping a chamber in Tar Heel State 'tough but doable,' pointing out that the legislative elections will use new maps drawn after a 2018 state court ruling that found the North Carolina lines represented an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander.

Yesterday Politico's Ally Mutnick equated the race to turn the state legislatures with the presidential race! "Far away from the glare of the presidential campaign," she wrote, "a competition rivaling it in importance is playing out across the country: for power over the redistricting process-- and potentially control of the House for the next decade." And she honed in on North Carolina and Texas. "Both parties are funneling millions into the battle for the Texas state House and the North Carolina legislature, eager to have a greater say in the crafting of what could be as many as 53 congressional districts between the two states combined. Republican mapmakers locked in a GOP advantage there over the past decade: Before 2018, the GOP held 69 percent of House seats in Texas and 77 percent of seats in North Carolina. 'North Carolina and Texas have a history of some of the worst gerrymandering in the country,' said Kelly Ward Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, an initiative formed to break the GOP's hold on the map-drawing process. 'And so the ability to move from extreme gerrymandering into fair maps is incredibly notable.' Thanks to curbs on gerrymandering forced by voter initiatives and public pressure, along with the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats have already made up some of the ground they lost to Republicans after 2010. That year's wave election helped keep the GOP in the House majority for eight years and in control of many state legislative chambers for the entire decade."

North Carolina and Texas are so important because they are large, growing states entirely under GOP control-- and many of the other maps Republicans drew a decade ago have stubbornly endured, blunting Democratic gains. Privately, many Democrats concede they have no chance to flip any chamber in Ohio or Wisconsin, and only a narrow path to gaining control of the Florida state House.

Democratic strategists in Texas say 15 to 20 GOP-held seats will host competitive races, most of which lie in the quickly diversifying suburbs. Several of those are open seats, thanks to Republican retirements, and nine of them were carried by then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke in his 2018 Senate bid. Texas Democrats have mimicked the national party’s successful 2018 strategy, recruiting several women of color and veterans who are capitalizing on suburban disgust of President Donald Trump.

"In all these districts, in the polls I’ve seen, the president is definitely upside down in terms of his favorable rating. And that is hurting the entire Republican ticket," said Texas state House Democratic Caucus chair Chris Turner. "This is definitely the biggest battlefield for the state House that I can remember at least since my election, which was in 2008."

...Democratic operatives see the greatest opportunity in areas where rapid demographic change is diluting the GOP’s edge. Forward Majority is funneling its resources toward four growing states: Texas, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona-- largely abandoning the Rust Belt targets it went after in 2018.

“Democratic performance in state legislative races underperformed the congressional wave of 2018, and a lot of pundits said, ‘Well that’s gerrymandering,’” said Vicky Hausman, a co-founder of the group. That’s true, she agreed, in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where the population is static.

“It’s not true in the Sun Belt, where we’ve just seen so much population growth and diversification in the suburbs essentially blur the lines of the gerrymanders,” she said. “They just don’t hold.”

The Blue America 2020 state legislative thermometer above has some of the most progressive candidates running for state legislatures around the country. Please consider chipping in what you can. This is the future of the Democratic Party and the future of the country.



UPDATE: Katherine Norman is one of the progressive Democratic state Senate candidates who could help flip that chamber. And she's running against one of the most toxic Republicans in Florida politics, Republican Party chair and Trump campaign co-chair Joe Gruters. This morning she told me that her opponent "represents the very worst about the GOP, and dare I say, the FLGOP which is an even more cultish group. He claims that he wanted to get dark money out of politics and shares an office with the registered agent of 76 Republican Super PACs Eric Robinson. He inflames race issues by calling the coronavirus the ‘Wuhan’ virus at the RNC, falsely claiming the McCloskeys were threatened by BLM protesters on CBS News with Jim DeFede. He embraces the candidacy of self-proclaimed Islamaphobe Laura Loomer. He is a Trump fixture that embodies and represents the administration above all else." 

Every day I am connecting with voters through my outreach on social media. Often, I find that there is someone running against this entrenched Republican is enough to garner major support. Many people I have spoken with haven’t felt represented or hopeful in decades.

I am so proud to be a part of the movement for real, transparent, government in the face of deliberate deception under our current leadership. It is clear that the voters do not trust the FLGOP and I would love to reach and engage as many voters as possible.

I have so much data and intel on my opponent. I have been working diligently to understand the needs and motivations of voters in my district. If I had the funding I could hammer the message home to voters here in my district and certainly about the FLGOP across the state for Biden.

With more money my campaign could take on the kind of strategic large scale operation necessary to send a serious message to this very powerful incumbent, to the FLGOP as a whole, and to Democratic Voters in my district and beyond. I would be proud to do so and am critically invested in making sure that I have exerted all measures humanly possible to prevent a FLGOP victory in November.

 

When Will It Be An Unambiguous Rout?

How would the media sell ads if the narrative of the 2020 election was just "anti-Republican tsunami ahead" every day? And how would the two parties motivate their bases to turn out if that was the story?


New York Magazine's Alex Carp looked to Frank Rich for an explanation of how to navigate a news cycle on steroids. He noted, as many of us have, that, "Just as the revelations in Jeffrey Goldberg’s reporting on Donald Trump’s insults to veterans have begun to fade from the headlines, details from Bob Woodward’s latest book on the president, including his intentional downplaying the risks of coronavirus and lies about how it is transmitted, have begun to appear. Will either of these reports have long-term impact?"

And what about Michael Cohen’s tell-all memoir, which was on constant rotation on MSNBC during the brief interim between Goldberg and Woodward? And whatever happened to The Times reporter Michael Schmidt’s book of a week earlier, with its revelation that Mike Pence was put on standby alert during that murky unscheduled Trump stopover at Walter Reed? The cavalcade passes by so quickly it’s hard to gauge what long-term impact any revelations have. We hardly got to know the Fontainebleau hotel pool boy who brought down the randy architect of Trump’s Evangelical base, Jerry Falwell Jr., before we moved on.

If the voluminous press coverage of the widely distributed advance copies are to be believed, Woodward’s Rage is adding details and Trump’s own blithe recorded confirmation to a horrific story that we already knew: The president deliberately falsified and downplayed the epic severity of the pandemic. As Jennifer Szalai writes in her Didion-worthy dissection of Rage in The Times, the book’s portrait of Trump would be “immediately recognizable to anyone paying even the minimal amount of attention.” In a blow-by-blow account in April, for instance, The Times reported that “throughout January, as Mr. Trump repeatedly played down the seriousness of the virus,” both “top White House advisers” and experts in Cabinet departments and intelligence agencies were telling him the lethal facts and sounding constant alarms.

That’s why by this late date Trump’s indifference to matters of life and death has long since been baked into most voters’ verdicts on this president, including his own voters. Even as the Woodward revelations started to pour out, Trump was brazenly showcasing his immutable callousness and narcissism in public view, violating local mandates (as well as White House guidelines) on mask wearing and social distancing at a rally in North Carolina and conspicuously ignoring the devastation, pain, and suffering as fire tore through America’s most highly populated state.





National and battleground-state polling on the presidential election has remained largely stable since before either party’s conventions. One wants to believe that Woodward and Goldberg will move the needle, transforming a Biden lead that still leaves Democrats anxious into an unambiguous rout. In the immediate aftermath of Goldberg’s Atlantic piece, the White House’s panicky, all-hands-on-deck pushback suggested that the Trump campaign was worried. Even Melania Trump’s Twitter account was immediately enlisted in an overnight effort to denounce the article as fake news. But again, you have to wonder if The Atlantic’s additional anecdotes can move voters who have long since absorbed Trump’s contempt for generals, for John McCain’s wartime heroism, and for the Gold Star parents of Humayun Khan, an Army captain killed by a car bomb in Iraq.

What gives one a bit of hope about the Woodward book’s ability to sway some of the few still-persuadable voters is the recordings. Trump just couldn’t stop himself from performing for the most bold-faced name among reporters. While we can’t rule out that he may yet claim, as he did about the Access Hollywood video, that the recordings are a hoax, the sheer volume of his verbal diarrhea makes it unlikely that anyone will fall for it except his QAnon faithful. To get voters to listen to them all, Sarah Cooper may have to bring out a box set.

Does Fox News show the results of their polling on the channels? Fox's polls are legitimate-- nothing like the Republican Party manipulated polling that Rasmussen and Trafalgar do. The most recent Fox polls show Trump losing in key battleground states: down 8 in Wisconsin, down 9 in Arizona, down 4 in North Carolina-- and dragging Republican incumbents down with him, with Arizona Senator Martha McSally (R) losing to Mark Kelly by 17 points and North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis (R) losing to Cal Cunningham by 6 points. Fox's most recent national poll had Trump losing by 5-- 51-46%.

And what about the ultimate swing state, Florida? The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump losing by 1.2%, although that average includes concotted polling from Trafalgar. Florida is always going to be close. Trump can't win the presidency without its 29 electoral votes; Biden can. But the Biden campaign isn't taking any chances. It was big news yesterday that Mike Bloomberg is about to pour $100 million into Florida. Trump freaked out immediately:

Michael Scherer reported that this "massive late-stage infusion of cash" could reshape the presidential contest in a costly toss-up state central to Señor Trumpanzee's reelection hopes. $100 million goes a long way-- even in Florida, a state where TV ads still seem to work. I wonder how that kind of spending is going to effect down-ballot races. I asked some of the Blue America-endorsed candidates running for Congress and for the state legislature.

Kathy Lewis' district will determine whether the Florida state Senate is controlled by the Democrats or the GOP. Last time she ran-- against an incumbent who has retired (and with ZERO help from the Florida Democratic Party-- she scored 46.5% and nearly ousted a right-wing nut. This time she's up against a Trumpist and looks like she can flip the seat. She told us this morning that "An infusion of cash in the Florida Senate District 20 Democratic campaign will be the boost we need to flip this critical Florida seat. The SD-20 seat may well determine if Democrats get a say in Florida redistricting for the next decade. I am running a truly grassroots campaign, and this money could be the lift that pushes Democrats to a position of power in Florida."

Joshua Hicks, the progressive state House candidate running for a Nassau-Duval county seat told me he thinks "most candidates in Florida will welcome Bloomberg spending $100 million on GOTV efforts. It's sorely needed in an expensive state, and could be the difference between a Trump re-election or a Biden presidency. That said, it would be nice if Bloomberg or any major donor would invest in actual down-ballot candidates as well. The 140 Democratic candidates running throughout Florida are doing real work on the ground, contacting and turning out real voters-- even in tough districts-- but sadly, many are being ignored. Hopefully Bloomberg's investment will trickle down into the districts where it is needed and where moving even a couple thousand votes can make a big, big difference for the statewide results. We are all in this together and I am glad Bloomberg is finally arriving at the party."

Cindy Banyai won her primary in August and is contesting an open congressional seat in southwest Florida. (In the primary she got 28,749 votes and the Republican victor, Byron Donalds, won 23,480 votes. "We are going to need to get out the Democratic vote," she told me last night, "as well as win the hearts and minds of independent voters and non-Trump Republicans. Investments made across Florida will help us defeat Trump and flip down ballot districts from red to blue, ensuring the voice to the people is truly heard. Grassroots candidates like me can really make our dollars stretch. Television ads make a huge difference, but cost a lot up front. An influx of funds for television could really help us flip this district and defeat the latest aspiring Trump sycophant."

Bob Lynch, way down in Miami-Dade and also running for a state House seat held by a Republicans said that "The thing that gives me the most hope is that almost all of Bloomberg’s decisions are data driven. And I don’t mean Robby Mook and the guys who read Moneyball in college and thought political campaigns were as easy as playing fantasy baseball data driven. Bloomberg is the real deal. Mike built his empire on data. The Bloomberg service we use on Wall Street is incredible in its breadth, depth, and sophistication. There is no doubt that he crunched all the numbers and decided that Florida was a good investment. The fact that he is doing this so late in the cycle is great news as it will leave the GOP scrambling to assemble a counter strike. Spanish language television ads will make a huge difference and close the gap between Democratic outreach and the GOP’s advantage in tv ads. I’ve been watching almost all of the NBA Playoff games on TNT and it still amazes me to see how many personal injury lawyers advertise, in laughably bad Spanish, during the commercials. But they try. I’ve yet to see a Biden ad in Spanish, despite spending last month religiously watching European soccer on Telemundo. If the Bloomberg effort surgically targets Latino areas on channels and programming they watch, it will pay dividends. If they follow the same tired playbook that sunk Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum, it will be a colossal waste of money."

Lynch continued that he's "hoping it will help my district, HD-116, which is 90% Hispanic, at the top of the ticket but it is still unclear how that will affect down ballot races. Ideally, Bloomberg would have plugged into the unprecedented slate of down ballot candidates 90 for 90 and The Florida Democratic Environmental caucus recruited to run in almost every race, but that doesn’t seem to be the plan. We know our communities far better than out of state consultants who were deployed to Florida. $100 million is a lot of money and Bloomberg’s operation has always been far more efficient than the DNC or state party. I remain both hopeful and skeptical. The ground work still needs to be done on the local level. Mailers, text, phone banking, targeted digital (Facebook and YouTube). Myself and my fellow candidates will continue this effort and do our best to draft in Bloomberg’s wake."





Fergie Reid and Janelle head, respectively, 90 For 90 and the Florida Environmental Caucus-- and they were responsible for recruiting dozens of Florida candidates in seats the Florida Democratic Party is always happy to cede to the GOP without a fight. Reid told me that it's great news that Bloomberg is spending $100 million in Florida to help assure a Biden/Harris Democratic victory there. "Much of this money," he said, "will be spent on T.V. ads and statewide GOTV efforts, possibly targeted at specific regional voter populations. An historic slate of 140 Florida Democratic 2020 state legislative candidates will appear on the ballot. 84 of these are challenging currently GOP held seats. Around $2 million of this planned $100 million dollar expenditure should be spread throughout these 84 districts. Dems need to flip 3 state Senate seats and 13 state House seats to 'share power.' Flips of 4 and 14 respectively would give Dems an outright majority in both chambers. The Florida Senate and House Dems are currently playing to flip 2 & 19 respectively; which means 63 challenger contests are being almost completely ignored by the party bodies with oversight of these races. 63 state legislative contests equates to roughly HALF of the STATE of FLORIDA! Mike Bloomberg would do well to invest in this half of the state, using these candidates contests as the vehicles."

Janelle Christensen couldn't agree more. She said that "If Bloomberg deigned to give $140,000, that would be $1000 per Democratic candidate running in the state legislature. Each one of those candidates could use that money to reach at minimum 2,000 NPA or new voters. 

Bloomberg made the decision to focus his final election spending on Florida last week, after news reports that Trump had considered spending as much as $100 million of his own money in the final weeks of the campaign, Bloomberg’s advisers said. Presented with several options on how to make good on an earlier promise to help elect Biden, Bloomberg decided that a narrow focus on Florida was the best use of his money.

The president’s campaign has long treated the state, which Trump now calls home, as a top priority, and his advisers remain confident in his chances given strong turnout in 2016 and 2018 that gave Republicans narrow winning margins in statewide contests.

“Voting starts on Sept. 24 in Florida so the need to inject real capital in that state quickly is an urgent need,” Bloomberg adviser Kevin Sheekey said. “Mike believes that by investing in Florida it will allow campaign resources and other Democratic resources to be used in other states, in particular the state of Pennsylvania.”

The last Republican to win the White House without Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and a loss of the state’s 29 electoral votes would radically shrink Trump’s paths to reelection. With Florida in his column, Biden would be able to take the presidency by holding every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and winning any one of the following states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, all of which Biden leads in current public polling averages.

In recent weeks, polls in Florida have narrowed, with the Cook Political Report recently shifting the state from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.” A Washington Post average of public polls since August finds Biden up by one percentage point in the state, well within the margin of error. While he has been doing better than past Democratic candidates with Whites and seniors, Biden has struggled among the state’s Latino population, which Republicans have focused enormous resources on courting over several election cycles.

“If you have the ability to make sure that you are able to speak directly to all of these different communities and where they live then you are going a long way to securing the states for Biden in this election,” Rep. Ted Deutch (D-FL) said. “I’m glad that Mike Bloomberg recognized this and is prepared to make an investment to make sure that every one of those communities will be aware of the importance of this election.”

The spending will focus mostly on television and digital ads, in both English and Spanish.

Bloomberg’s aim is to prompt enough early voting that a pro-Biden result would be evident soon after the polls close. Florida, unlike other swing states, reports almost all early ballots shortly after voting ends.

Democrats and Republicans have worried that early results will dictate public perceptions of who will ultimately win the election. In many states, the first reported votes are more Republican, but the numbers turn more Democratic over time as more mail-in and early votes are added to the tally.

“It would give lie to what we expect to be Trump’s election night messaging that Democrats are stealing the election, because unlike other battleground states, Florida counts its absentee ballots on or by Election Day,” Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson said. “We think Florida is incredibly close but winnable.”

A recent report by Hawkfish, a voter data firm funded by Bloomberg, predicted that even in a scenario where Biden wins 54 percent of the final vote, partisan differences in mail voting preference could lead to an initial count that shows Trump winning with 55 percent of ballots tabulated nationally on Nov. 3. In public polling, Republican voters have reported far less interest in voting by mail or voting early than Democrats.

A prominent Democratic consultant in Florida, not aware of the Bloomberg decision, said Saturday that Democratic outside groups have mostly focused on Midwestern states because of the prohibitive cost of advertising in Florida. This person, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy, estimated that it would take $15 million to $20 million to significantly move Biden’s numbers among Latinos, and $60 million to $70 million to get on television across the state over the next 51 days and have a real impact.

Between March 24 and Sept. 11, the Biden campaign and Democratic groups outspent Trump and Republican groups in the state on television by a margin of $42 million to $32 million, according to data from a Democratic tracking firm. But future reservations suggest that gap is set to narrow, in part because of increased investment by wealthy Trump backers operating independently of his campaign.

Preserve America, a new super PAC backed by Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, announced $30 million in spending in seven states this month, including Florida, with more spending expected to be announced soon.

Bloomberg’s advisers described the spending plan as “nine figures” and declined to say how much higher than $100 million Bloomberg might be willing to go, if at all. They said Bloomberg is hopeful that his commitment will push other wealthy Democratic donors to further open their pocketbooks for other states in the final months of the campaign. Bloomberg’s money will be spent through Independence USA, his own super PAC, and other Democratic groups.

Between November and March, Bloomberg spent more $1 billion on his own failed bid for the Democratic nomination, including about $275 million on ads that criticized Trump. When he endorsed Joe Biden, he announced that he would “work to make him the next President of the United States.” Bloomberg subsequently received a prime speaking slot on the final night of the Democratic convention this year.

But just what Bloomberg, who is estimated to be worth more than $50 billion, planned to do with his money has remained a significant source of suspense among Democratic strategists. After flooding local and state Democratic Party accounts with money during his campaign, Bloomberg transferred about $20 million in cash and prepaid office leases to the Democratic National Committee, taking advantage of a provision of campaign finance law that allows candidates to donate leftover money. He also spread his money to benefit state and local Democratic candidates.

A group he helps to fund, Everytown for Gun Safety, has pledged to spend $60 million on elections this cycle, and he has committed another $60 million to help preserve or strengthen the Democratic House majority. Swing Left, a group focused on winning state legislative seats, and Fair Fight, a voter protection effort led by former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, have also received millions. Bloomberg has not yet announced any spending to help elect a Democratic Senate, after allotting $20 million to the effort in 2018.