Ready To Flip The Fifth!

The 5th refers to the congressional district that takes up the northwest corner of Ohio, from the suburbs south and west of Toledo, down through Bowling Green, Findlay and Kenton and west to the Indiana border. It's a red district and the PVI is a daunting R+11, though... the progressive Democrat running there this year, Nick Rubando, isn't the kind of guy that gets daunted. He's a roll up the sleaves fighter who doesn't take no as an answer. The last candidate, Michael Galbraith, who ran against the garden variety crooked Republican Trump enabler incumbent there, Bob Latta, only scored 35.1% of the vote. He lost every one of the 14 counties in the district, even the two biggest ones that Sherrod Brown won that day, Lucas and Wood. Two years earlier, Trump rolled up a 59.7-34.6% win over Hillary. Her performance underperformed Obama's by 10 points. Rubando's attitude is "let's change it." He seems determined to explain Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal to every voter and potential voter in the 5th. I asked him to write a guest post and record a quick video to introduce himself to DWT readers. If you like them please consider contributing to his grassroots campaign here.

A New Face For This Battleground State
-by: Nick Rubando

“As goes Ohio, so goes the nation.” This was the political philosophy echoed by so many of us for decades. Growing up here, we were bombarded with political advertisements as presidential hopefuls fought for the nation’s heartland. Now it seems the media narrative has shifted. There is a sense that Ohio is too far gone, that we have become a reliably red state-- this is exactly what the Rebublican Party wants you to think. The simple fact is this, no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. We cannot let them win.

Politics is personal for me. I have experienced first hand how the decisions our leaders make affect the lives of everyday working people. When I was a little kid, my family was solidly middle-class -- times were tough, but we were able to make it work. When I was a freshman in college, my parents got divorced. Right around that same time, the financial crisis hit. We were thrown into a tailspin that resulted in both of my parents individually filing for bankruptcy.

Because of my parents’ divorce, my mom was uninsured for the first time. She wanted to take care of her family-- to be a mother and the primary caregiver for her own mother who had recently been diagnosed with dementia-- but now she was forced to get a job so she’d have access to health insurance. It’s not easy or cheap to get an individualized insurance plan as a 40-year-old woman with a preexisting condition. I will never forget her choking back tears because she had to leave for work and could not stay at home with my dying grandmother.

Things started to change for us when President Obama was elected and Democrats held both houses of Congress. One of the first things Democrats in the House did was to put together the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The ACA did two important things for my mom, it made it possible for her to get health insurance on the individual marketplace rather than through her employer, and it kept insurance companies from discriminating against her preexisting condition.

My mom was lucky. The ACA allowed her to leave her job and start a small business of her own, but far too many Americans are still burdened with skyrocketing co-pays, premiums, and deductibles. This is why we must continue to improve. Healthcare is a human right, not a privilege. Medicare for All will allow us to offer full vision, dental, and mental health benefits to every American. We must ensure that we are investing in preventative care and truly taking control of the health crisis facing America. It is time we join almost every other developed nation in the world, and value patients over profits.

This was an example of a positive change, a step in the right direction for our State. Sadly though, Ohio has been hurt more times than it has been helped. Recently, the actions of this administration have left Ohio’s agricultural community crippled. Trump’s trade war with China is causing Ohio farmers to lose faith in his ability to govern, and we are seeing that on the campaign trail everyday.

The number one cash crop for Ohio is soybeans, and the top producer of soybeans, Putnam County, is right here in Ohio’s 5th District. The value of the Ohio soybean crop is approximately $2.5 billion, and no surprise, China is the top export market for U.S. soybeans. While trade talks may or may not progress under this administration, the damage has already been done. According to a study by The Ohio State University, these tariffs could mean up to a 59 percent decrease in Ohio farmers’ net income in only six years. This trade war does not only hurt the Ohio farmer, it hurts the entire Ohio economy. The ripple effects of these tariffs, and the retaliatory measures put in place, have damaged industries all throughout the state that rely on this mass agricultural production.

Speaking of the economy, it is time we invested in renewable energy here in Ohio. Wood County is home to the largest solar panel manufacturing facility in the U.S., and wind farm projects in Putnam and Van Wert County annually bring in around $2 million in tax revenues for local schools and infrastructure spending. We need to ensure that we are leading the charge for environmental justice, both economically and ecologically. I support the Green New Deal because I know it will not only help save our planet, but it will also offer outstanding economic opportunities for OH-05 and the nation.

Ohioans know who has their back. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed that the most popular politician in Ohio is overwhelmingly our Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown, and a recent Morning Consult Poll shows Trump's approval rating in this state has dropped from +14 to -6. Ohio is most certainly still a battleground state, and our campaign is ready to prove that.

Democrats win when they run strong races everywhere, especially in Ohio. OH-05 is currently represented by an unresponsive and out-of-touch incumbent whose family has held this seat for 42 of the last 60 years. He is uninspiring and detested by Republicans and Democrats alike. We believe it is time for generational change in Ohio. We want to be the face of the Democratic party’s comeback in this state. We want to knock on every door and talk to every possible voter. That is why we are running, and that is how we will win.

Countdown to Election Day: late word on the congressional special elections in OH-05 and VA-01

It's crunch time for the congressional special elections Tuesday in Ohio and Virginia, both currently Republican-held seats with Democratic takeaway potential.

OHIO'S 5th CD
The most curious development in Ohio's 5th Congressional District, where progressive Democrat Robin Weirauch seems close to pulling off a major upset to replace the late Paul Gillmor, is the absence from the campaign trail of House GOP leader John Boehner in support of Bob Latta. Boehner represents the adjacent Ohio 8th CD.

You'll recall that last year Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown won this supposedly solid Republican district on their way to being elected Ohio governor and U.S. senator, respectively. Both Governor Strickland and Senator Brown have been highly visible in their support for Weinrauch. You'll also recall that the DCCC almost to the end snubbed the Weirauch campaign, before dumping in $150K, there forcing the NRCC to pour in what's expected to be way more than that--at a time when GOP campaign funds are hardly plentiful. But this is a seat they don't dare lose.

Last word was that the race was so tight that the Weirauch people were eager for volunteers to help man the effort to the end. If you're in the area, call (419) 352-1583 or e-mail phonebank4robin@gmail.com.

VIRGINIA'S 1st CD
One novelty of the contest to replace the late Jo Ann Davis in Virginia's conservative 1st CD will be the use paper ballots, with the unavailability of voting machines owing to the tight turn around from the November general election and the upcoming February presidential primaries.

This is another seat it would be devastating fof the Rs to lose, but Iraq vet Philip Forgit is trying to pull off his upset without any aid from the DCCC, and is being outspent something like five to one by Republican Rob Wittman.

Here's some of what Brownsox reported Wednesday on DailyKos:

It’s been an intense race so far; both candidates were nominated at conventions on November 10, just one month and a day before the election.

Raising Kaine has a great interview with Forgit where they discuss, among other things, Forgit’s positions on trade (he supports fair trade), torture (very critical of waterboarding), and the summer FISA bill (he opposes retroactive telecom immunity).

It must be acknowledged that this district is quite Republican. The PVI of VA-01 is R +8.9, and they haven’t elected a Democrat to Congress since 1977. Jo Ann Davis’s smallest margin of victory was in her first election, which she won 58-37. Bush beat Kerry 60-39 here. Governor Kaine lost the district 51-46 (while winning the state 52-46), and Senator Webb lost 54-44 (while he won the state 50-49).

Is the race competitive? The Republicans sure seem to think so. Tom Cole’s NRCC (in no position to take anything for granted), just spent $80,000, including $10,000 on polling.

That’s a huge chunk of money for them. It is more than Forgit's total for this campaign as of November 21, and nearly as much as Wittman has raised.

Why would they do that? They certainly don’t have the money to spare. They’re not just in financial trouble; they’re broke. At last filing they were $3.6 million in debt, and of the $2.6 million they had on hand, they’ve now spent over $400,000 in a week between OH-05 and VA-01.

They must be pretty concerned about these districts to spend what little cash they have left on races such as these.