Every Passing Day Looks Worse For Republican Prospects In November

So it turns out that when all the votes were counted, Lesko did even worse than what was reported Wednesday morning. The official website of Arizona's Secretary of State has Lesko with 95,499 votes (52.4%) and Tipirneni with 86,771 votes (47.6%). Lesko leads by 8,728 out of 183,118 votes cast. The Arizona Republic called it a glimpse of a coming blue wave and reported that the election results have "triggered new anxiety about the GOP's party leadership, direction and message in the traditionally red-leaning state... Republicans expected Democrats to perform well in the special election, given the anti-Trump mood motivating liberal and independent voters and the heated passions over health care and the more local debate over teacher pay and looming teacher walk-outs, which Republicans are grappling with at the State Capitol. But they were startled that Tipirneni managed to pull off such a strong showing in the deep-red district. Lesko's lackluster performance left Republicans with a sinking feeling as they barrel towards the 2018 cycle. The numbers don't bode well for GOP candidates up and down the ballot." (By the way, the GOP spent over a million dollars in AZ-08 and the Democrats spent... zero.)

And that's not just true in House races, nor just in Arizona. Axios published a poll showing the Democrats' really wretched Senate candidate, Kyrsten Sinema, beating any of the 3 Republican candidates by comfortable margins:

The polling also shows the Democrats winning the Senate races in purple Nevada and blood red Tennessee.

After the AZ-08 swing away from Trump, everyone started talking about how there were so many incumbents who could never survive that kind of swing. True, true... but there's no need to compare apples and oranges. After all, AZ-08 was an open seat where the Republican was forced to retire in a sex scandal. Flesh and blood incumbents will generally be more difficult targets. That said, though, Sabato's Crystal Ball downgraded 10 Republican-held seats from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" and one from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up." The new toss-up seat is Leonard Lance's in New Jersey, but anyone paying attention has known he's been in trouble all cycle. Here are the Safe to Likely seats:

• AZ-06- David Schweikert- R+9
• CA-04- Tom McClintock- R+10
• CA-22- Devin Nunes- R+8
• CO-03- Scott Tipton- R+6
• GA-07- Rob Woodall- R+9
• MO-02- Ann Wagner- R+8
• NC-08- Richard Hudson- R+8
• OH-07- Bob Gibbs- R+12
• OH-10- Mike Turner- R+4
• SC-05- Ralph Norman- R+9

The news was even worse for Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), David Brat (VA-07) and-- if he even wins his primary-- Dan Donovan (NY-11), all of whose seats went from "Likely Republican to Leans Republican."

Do all of these downgraded Republicans have viable opponents? Schweikert has 4 Democrats running, one of whom, Heather Ross, has raised enough money to run a serious campaign. McClintock has 3 Democrats running and 2, Jessica Morse and Regina Bateson are financially, competitive with him. Nunes is in major trouble and could well end up inside the Trump Regime. He's loaded with right-wing cash ($4,535,099) but the anti-Nunes environment could negate his financial advantage. Tipton has 3 Dems in the race and two-- Diane Mitsch Bush and Karl Hanlon-- have raised into the 6-figures. Woodall has a whole pack of Democrats nipping at his heels and 3 have raised enough money to win. One, David Kim, has outraised Woodall (although with $348,389 in self-funding). Ann Wagner knew she was in trouble and has redoubled her efforts to get Wall Street to underwrite her reelection. She has $3,390,226 in her warchest. The closest any of her 4 Democratic opponents comes in Cort Vanostran's $340,213 (after raising $520,336). In North Carolina Richard Hudson has raised $1,401,578 and the closest any of his 3 Democratic opponents has come is Frank McNeill's $249,023. In Ohio, conservative Democrat Ken Harbaugh has upraised Bob Gibbs $1,128,124 to $581,450 and Michael Turner is in jeopardy from Theresa Gasper. Ralph Norman and Archie Parnell will face off in a rematch in South Carolina. Last year's special election shocked the political world when Norman edged Parnell 45,076 (51%) to 42,341 (48%). It's a pretty red district-- and Trump beat Hillary 57.3% to 38.8%-- but swing-wise it's not impossible for Parnell to turn the beat around in November.

When Will Beltway Pundits Feel Safe Enough To Predict An 80 Seat Swing?

Trump beat Hillary in Mississippi 700,714 (57.9%) to 485,131 (40.1%). Basically, Hillary won the black belt counties in the western part of the state and Trump won the rest. She won Bennie Thompson's congressional district 64-35% and Trump won the 3 other congressional districts by around the same number, reversed. The statewide PVI is R+9 so those numbers were predictable. A new Mason-Dixon poll of Mississippi released yesterday was anything but predictable. It shows Democrat Jim Hood ahead of Republican Lt. Governor Tate Reeves in the gubernatorial race-- 44-39%. Similar story from today's Tennessee Mason-Dixon poll-- Democrat Phil Bredesen leading GOP extremist Marsha Blackburn, 46-43% in a state with an R+14 that Trump won 1,522,925 (60.7%) to 870,695 (34.7%). That's part of what you hear people talking about when they mention the word "swing." Like they did last night while the votes in New York and Arizona were rolling in.

Yes, the Republicans held onto AZ-08 in the suburbs west and northwest of Phoenix... so why were Republican celebrations this morning ringing a little hollow? The swing away from the GOP was frightening. Trump had won that district by 21 points. The district is so red that the Democrats hadn't bothered running a candidate in 2016-- nor in 2014. The last time a Democrat ran was in 2012 and the result was ugly. Right-wing extremist Trent Franks beat Democrat Gene Scharer 63.3% to 35.1%. Last night Debbie Lasko, a lunatic fringe GOP extremist, who already announced she's joining the neo-fascist Freedom Caucus, beat random Democrat Hiral Tipirneni 91,390 (52.6%) to 82,318 (47.4%). Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight noted that "Lesko’s margin of victory was only 5 percentage points in a district that typically votes Republican by much, much more than that. The outcome represented a 20-point swing toward Democrats relative to the district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, which is derived from how it voted for president in 2016 and 2012 relative to the country... If Republicans are winning by only 5 points in this sort of extremely red district in November, dozens of more competitive seats will flop to Democrats-- more than enough for them to take the House. In fact, Cook's David Wasserman, tweeted, while the last votes were still be counted that "There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It's time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November."

This morning, Jonathan Swan and Mike Allen painted a dismal picture for the Republican Party as they were taking solace that at least the million dollars they spent shoring up Lesko allowed them to keep the seat. Trump's Election Nightmare brings up how the far-fetched possibility that the Democrats could win both the House and the Senate is turning into a probability. "Republicans," they remind us, "have underperformed in every special election since Trump became president... Even the reddest of districts in a red state can be in play this year."

Steven Law, a top Mitch McConnell ally who runs American Crossroads, the most powerful and well-funded outside group supporting Republican Senate campaigns, said it's "not likely but not out of the question" to lose the Senate.

• Law said: "[W]e do have more defensive terrain to hold than when the cycle started... And targeted Democratic incumbents have been over-performing in terms of their early fundraising activity."
• A Republican lobbyist who is well-connected in the Senate is becoming increasingly bearish about holding the chamber: “Everyone just universally assumed it would be status quo or Republicans would win a seat or two. And now it feels like Republicans are at a risk of losing one, which would be a 50-50 Senate or two, which would be a Democratic Senate.”

GOP Senate candidates are in trouble in Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee... and even Texas, where longshot Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke-- anything but a DSCC Schumer candidate-- is running neck-and-neck with right-wing crackpot Ted Cruz. And we all know that in the House, Democrats need to pick up 2 dozen seats. At the rate things are going, they'll be closer to 80 seats than to 24 seats. Things keep getting worse for the Republicans... and with Trump off his leash, there's no reason they won't get even worse.

If you'd like to help the Democrats win back the Senate-- and not turn it into a conservative hellhole, please consider tapping on the Blue America Senate Thermometer on the right and contributing what you can, especially to Beto O'Rourke and Dianne Feinstein's progressive opponent, Kevin de León. And keep in mind, if Bernie and Elizabeth Warren run as a ticket in 2020, anything they collect in their 2018 Senate campaigns can be transferred to the presidential race.

Special Elections: AZ-08 Today, TX-27... Sometime

After he was caught in a sex-and-payoff scandal, Blake Farenthold intended to serve out his term and not run for reelection. Instead he was forced to resign from Congress in disgrace.

TX-27 s a very gerrymandered district that took a Hispanic-based Democratic district and made it Republican. In 2004, TX-27 was 68.1% Hispanic and the only congressman it had ever known was Democrat Solomon Ortiz. It included Cameron County (84% Hispanic) and Brownsville way in the south. In the 2003 midterm redisticting, Cameron County was removed and put into the 15th and Republican parts of Kingsville County north of Corpus Christi were added. The district had voted, albeit narrowly, for Gore over Bush. Now the district has an R+13 PVI and Trump beat Hillary 60.1% to 36.5%. The district is still centered on Corpus Christi and Nueces County (where Trump and Hillary were virtually tied, 48.8% to 47.2%, about a thousand votes) but the whole southern part of the district is gone and Republican suburbs up northeast of Austin have been grafted onto it. TX-27 is now rated "safe Republican"-- like PA-18 was.

Yesterday, two things happened. First, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments about overturning a lower court's decision to ungerrymander the state, and, second, political reporter Patrick Svitek broke the news at the Texas Tribune that Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton have decided to call a special election to replace Farenthold before November. That's dangerous for the Texas GOP but they said they want to do it because the district is still recovering from Hurricane Harvey.

What is even more interesting though is that "CD-27 is among several districts that are the focus of a case that will be argued before the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday. Plaintiffs in the case argue that the districts were created in a way that discriminates against minorities and should be redrawn. A lower court agreed, and the high court is hearing Texas' appeal. It's not immediately clear how a Supreme Court ruling against Texas would affect special election plans."

A week ago Abby Livingston wrote an interesting post for the Tribune, In 2010, Blake Farenthold beat a Texas Democrat who seemed invincible. Will a Republican face the same fate in 2018?. It was the red wave but no one expected Solomon Ortiz, who had represented the 27th since it was created, to be beaten. He spent $1,244,876 (including $103,730 of his own cash) to Farenthold's measly $627,531 (including $152,357 from his own purse). The only significant outside expenditure was from a right-wing group, the 60 Plus Association which put $156,260 in against Ortiz. The DCCC never contested the district again... just wrote it off entirely (a DCCC specialty). Back to 2010:

On Oct. 10, Texas Monthly made public the question that had been floating in the air in South Texas and in Washington, D.C. for days: “Is Solomon Ortiz in trouble?”

"Word on the street in Corpus Christi is that Farenthold has an 8 point lead in the district," longtime political reporter Paul Burka wrote.

Two days later, Ortiz donated $95,000 of his personal money to his campaign and soon began airing television advertisements.

In a week’s time, the incumbent who once skated to re-election had to scramble to pull together a modern campaign. The same scenario was happening elsewhere in the country, as the Republican riptide suddenly appeared poised to pull under powerful Democratic House members in places like Missouri and South Carolina.

“If you haven’t had a race in 10 years, there’s a lot of atrophy that happens,” said [Democratic strategist C.R.] Wooters. “If you’re not careful, it can really get you.”

But there was something else that neither Ortiz nor national Democrats anticipated that would make the scramble that much harder: the newly-invented super PAC. Early in 2010, the Supreme Court made a ruling in the Citizens United v. FEC case that allowed for the creation of political entities that can collect and spend unlimited sums in federal campaigns.

Republican strategists quickly created an infrastructure of such groups. Democrats lagged far behind, and the party's candidates bore the brunt of Republican attack ads that fall.

While Farenthold didn't have gangbusters fundraising in his own right, Republican outside groups spent about $160,000 in a cheap South Texas media market to attack Ortiz.

But there was one last factor that Ortiz's camp and the DCCC assumed would be their last bit of re-election insurance: Farenthold’s pajamas.

Democratic operatives far and wide pushed a photo of Farenthold posing in duck-print pajamas at a charity event next to a scantily-clad young woman. Local and national media outlets ran with it. Surely, the Democrats thought, voters would think twice about a candidate who had appeared in such a photo.

They were dead wrong.



“There didn't seem to be any sort of drop in the engagement of his potential supporters and voters,” an Ortiz staffer told the Tribune.

And that's the point of the wave metaphor. No matter how how weak or strong of a swimmer the contenders are, a powerful enough national sentiment against a party can develop such that even a longtime incumbent can lose control of a race.

The margin on election night was so close that the race went into a recount. But in the end, Farenthold carried the seat by 775 votes. For those who had been closely watching the political map nationally, the outcome was among the most unexpected of the year.

The Republican-controlled state government redrew the state's congressional lines the following year, including a dramatic reframing of Farenthold's 27th District.

Instead of a district that stretched from Farenthold’s base of Corpus Christi down into the Democratic Rio Grande Valley, the district now swung deep into Republican inland counties and reached up to Austin.

Farenthold went on to coast to re-election every two years, even as sexual harassment allegations against his office began to build in late 2014.

But eventually, the situation became politically untenable amid the #MeToo movement last fall. In December, Politico reported that Farenthold had settled a lawsuit from a former staffer with $84,000 in taxpayer money. Faced with a related ethics investigation, he announced his retirement weeks later and then officially resigned from Congress earlier this month. It appears unlikely he will pay that money back.

While he was one of Congress' few experts on software policy, Farenthold never quite shook the duck pajamas image from that first campaign and conceded in his retirement announcement that his political inexperience set the stage for future trouble in his office.

"I'd never served in public office before," Farenthold said in December. "I had no idea how to run a congressional office and, as a result, I allowed a workplace culture to take root in my office that was too permissive and decidedly unprofessional. It accommodated destructive gossip, off-hand comments, off-color jokes and behavior that in general was less than professional."

Democratic activists are downright giddy on social media about the party’s prospects in the fall. The wave emoji has become a common means of conveying the all-but-assumed sweep coming in the fall.

Even among more cold-blooded operatives, the types who have lived through blue waves and red ones, there is indisputable optimism.

Harrison, the GOP operative, remains dubious that a Democratic wave is coming. He argues that U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s unpopularity mitigates the struggles President Trump faces in polling.

But he does concede that the influx of Democratic candidates all over the country, even in seemingly safe Republican seats, is unnerving.

“In normal elections, what happens is you don't even have candidates there,” he said.  To exacerbate the problem, Democratic candidates are raising piles of money, even in Texas, where Republicans hold 24 of the state's 36 U.S. House seats. National Democrats are targeting three Republicans representing districts that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016-- John Culberson of Houston, Will Hurd of Helotes and Sessions.

Hurd in particular has been a top target for Democrats in the past, as his House district is viewed as the only true swing district in the state. That's also why Hurd started preparing for this year's race soon after he won re-election in 2016.

But that's prompted speculation that other, more complacent Republicans representing districts that would be viewed as rock-solid red in normal election years-- the GOP's own Solomon Ortizes — may now be potential Democratic pick-ups. Such thinking has boosted the Democratic bids of the likes of M.J. Hegar, who is in a runoff to take on U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock. Donald Trump won Carter's district by more than 12 points in 2016. Yet Hegar managed to outraise Carter this past quarter.

And so, seven months out from Election Day, Republicans in Washington remain worried, Democrats are optimistic, and Wasserman, the analyst, is displaying a curiosity reminiscent of 2010.

“We just know there's going to be a race like that for Democrats, we just don't know who it's going to be,” he said. “It could be in Texas.”

Today voters in AZ-08, suburbs west and northwest of Phoenix, are going to the polls. Like TX-27, the PVI is R+13. Trump beat Hillary by about the same score by which Trump won in TX-27, 58.1% to 37%. If Democrat Hiral Tipirneni beats Debbie Lesko tonight it gives Eric Holguin or Roy Barrera hope that one of them can beat Republicans Bech Bruun or Michael Cloud-- or whomever winds up running in the specials. Of course if Tipirneni wins tonight, the GOP might as well save their money, pack up and go home.

How Are Arizona And New Jersey Shaping Up For The Republicans This Cycle?

When Trent Franks retired in December after a sexual harassment scandal, I told a friend of mine to calm down, saying that the district is so red that if it flipped-- or even got close to flipping-- the GOP would have to pack it in and forget the idea of even an effective minority next year. The PVI is R+13 and Trump beat Hillary 58.1% to 37.0%. Romney and McCain even did slightly better than Trump did. This is really Republican district in the suburbs and exurbs west and northwest of Phoenix. It includes Sun City, Peoria, Litchfield Park and Surprise. In 2016 Franks beat Democrat Clair Van Steenwyk 71.1% to 28.9%.

Former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) faces off against emergency room physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) April 24. As of the April 4 FEC reporting deadline Tipirneni outraised Lesko $734,937 to $564,404. The NRCC, the NRC, Ryan's Congressional Leadership PAC and the right-wing Defend US PAC spent $1,125,575 in the district. It's a district the GOP has never spent a dime on before. Lesko has been endorsed by Franks, Ted Cruz, Steve King, Jim Jordan, Mark Meadow, Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio and others from the far, far right.

Emerson College released a poll yesterday that shows a dead heat-- 46% (Tipirneni) to 45% (Lesko), quite the swing from Trump's 21 point win. And it's all about independents abandoning the GOP, favoring Tipineni 42% to 28%. Tipineni's favorable rating is 49% and Lesko's is 45%.

There was another poll released Monday, all the way on the other side of the country. This one was by Monmouth and it reported pretty bad news for the GOP in New Jersey. Remember, the PVI is D+7 and Hillary beat Trump statewide 2,148,278 (55.5%) to 1,601,933 (41.4%)-- 13 counties to Trump's 9. But the way the congressional districts are drawn has given the Democrats only 7 seats to the GOPs 5. The new poll. In the new poll, Democrats have a 19 point advantage among registered voters, putting all 5 Republican seats in jeopardy. The single biggest factor is Trump's drag on Republicans in the state. "The recently enacted federal tax reform plan doesn’t help either since most New Jerseyans think they are getting the short end of the stick." Only 35% of registered voters say they would vote for a Republican running for Congress.

If this result holds, it would mark a substantially better result for Congressional Democrats in New Jersey than in recent elections. Democrats won the statewide House vote by 8 points (53% to 45%) in 2016 and an even smaller 2 points (50% to 48%) in the 2014 midterm. Moreover, the poll finds that the overall swing is coming mainly from GOP-held seats.

In the five House seats currently held by a Republican, voter preference is split nearly evenly at 46% for the GOP candidate and 44% for the Democrat. The aggregate vote from these five districts in the past two House elections averaged a sizable 22 point advantage for the Republicans (59% - 38% in 2016 and 61% - 38% in 2014). On the other hand, the poll’s vote share in the seven seats currently held by Democrats-- 59% Dem to 28% GOP-- is in line with the average 30 point advantage Democrats held in these districts in both 2016 (65% - 32%) and 2014 (62% - 36%).

“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two-- or maybe even zero-- Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Murray added: “Voters will certainly take a closer look at the quality of the candidates nominated by the Democratic Party in each of these seats this fall. That could certainly change the equation in any individual district. However, these results suggest that New Jersey Republicans are facing hurricane-force headwinds right now.”

The main factor feeding this electoral environment is the decidedly negative view New Jersey residents have of Pres. Trump. Just 34% approve of the job he is doing and 61% disapprove. His rating is slightly better, but still in negative territory, among residents in the state’s five GOP-held congressional districts at 43% approve and 53% disapprove. In the seven Democratic districts, the president gets a 29% approve and 66% disapprove rating.

Another potential drag on GOP prospects is the fact that the recently enacted federal tax reform plan is not particularly popular in New Jersey. Just 35% of state residents approve of the plan and 46% disapprove (including 32% who strongly disapprove). This is more negative than national opinion on the new tax code, which garnered a 41% approve and 42% disapprove rating in Monmouth’s national poll last month. Nearly half (49%) of New Jerseyans expect that their own federal taxes will go up because of the new changes and just 19% expect their taxes to go down. Another 25% expect to feel no impact. These state results are more pessimistic than the national mood, with a smaller 37% of the country expecting their federal taxes to go up, 23% expecting them to go down, and 31% expecting no change.

In GOP-held House districts, 42% of residents approve of the tax plan and 46% disapprove. Still, 47% of these residents expect their federal taxes to go up. In Democratic-held districts, just 31% of residents approve of the tax plan and 46% disapprove, with 51% of these residents expecting their taxes to go up.

A majority of state residents (56%) say that New Jersey taxpayers will do worse under the new tax code compared to taxpayers in other parts of the country. Just 6% say New Jersey will be better off and 29% say New Jersey taxpayers will do about the same as other Americans. Residents in GOP-held House districts (64%) are even more likely than those in Democratic-held districts (51%) to feel they will fare worse than taxpayers in other parts of the country.

“Most New Jerseyans feel like they’ve ended up with the short end of the stick from these tax reforms. That’s what makes this plan a particularly tough sell for Republican House candidates here,” said Murray.

Albatross by Nancy Ohanian

The GOP is most likely to lose the seats where incumbents have retired, NJ-02 (Frank LoBiondo) and NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen), but Leonard Lance' seat (NJ-07) was won by Hillary. These are the PVIs of the 5 Republican seats:

• NJ-02- R+1
• NJ-03- R+2
• NJ-04- R+8
• NJ-07- R+3
• NJ-11- R+3

It's very unlikely that the GOP will retain any R+1, R+2 or R+3 seats anywhere in the country. And if Trump keeps on going the way he has been, it's hard to imagine the Republicans winning any R+4 or R+5 seats either. On top of that almost all GOP-held seats below R+10 will be up for grabs. R+13 seats like AZ-08 seems out of reach-- but, then so did PA-18, which had a PVI of R+11.

Perhaps AZ-08 Will Be The Reddest Seat To Flip Red To Blue This Year

Trent Franks was a crackpot extremist-- and a pervert. When he got caught in a sex scandal this year, the GOP House leadership forced him to retire immediately. Not many people in Congress were sad to see him go. And his uptight suburban little district in Phoenix's West Valley has been too confused to absorb what happened to their 7-term congressman who never had a serious challenge for reelection. In fact there ws no Democrat running against him in 2016, 2014 or 2012. The district includes Sun City, Surprise, Peoria, Surprise and Litchfield Park and the PVI is R+13. Trump beat Hillary there by a massive 58.1% to 37.0%.

This cycle, with Franks out and in disgrace, there are two serious Democrats competing for the Democratic nomination, Hiral Tipirneni (a self-funder who gave her campaign $93,443) and progressive Brianna Westbook. The Republicans, on the other hand, have 14 candidates in the hunt! The three raising serious money (over $200,000) are former state Rep. Phil Lovas, former state Senator Steve Montenegro and former state Senator Debbie Lesko. Montenegro is about as right-wing as you can be without actually running around in clothes adorned in Nazi symbols. Franks picked him to run and he's been endorsed by every right-wing crackpot from the neo-fascist wing of the GOP interested in the race, from Joe Arpaio, Steve King (R-IA), and JD Hayworth to Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum. He's running on a Make America Great Again Platform and was considered the frontrunner-- until yesterday.

Montenegro is a married man and a "minister" in his father's church whose campaign emphasizes all the typical mealy-mouthed pious GOP hypocrisy about his "virtue, honor and integrity." But his own little scandal just broke and it will derail him-- either now, for today's primary, or in the general. A series of text messages between Montenegro and a female staff member in the legislature puts the lie to all the integrity nonsense. After the staffer sent Montenegro a topless photo via text message, he responded by encouraging her to use a messaging app [Snapchat] where photos vanish after being viewed by the recipient.

Montenegro hid from the media and the public for a few days, deleted his Snapchat account and then emerged to term the charges "tabloid trash." This was his pathetic statement on Facebook:

Tonight I saw a despicable example of the tabloid trash that conservatives around this country have to deal with on a regular basis.

As a Hispanic conservative I knew they would stop at nothing to prevent me from going to Washington DC and fighting for the working families of our district just like I fought for the people at the State Capitol. They have always worked hard to stop me and I knew that this race would be no different. But I assumed the distortions would be limited to my votes or positions on issues.

I am blessed with an amazing wife and marriage. The media wants to drag us down with just a week to go, but we are not going to dignify this false tabloid trash with any further response.

I am proud of my campaign and team of supporters. We will carry on in a manner that respects the process and the voters, and we are confident that our message and commitment will win the day.

UPDATE

Montenegro lost.