Results Of State Legislative Races Were Generally Disastrous For Democrats

 

Democrats expected to flip at least a few state legislative chambers and stop the Republican Party gerrymandering steam roller. Unlike Florida-- which didn't even try and where this afternoon the 3 biggest chapters of the Florida College Democrats jointly called for the resignations of party chair Terri Rizzo, party executive director Juan Peñalosa, and saboteur Rosie Gonzales Spears-- parties in Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia, Iowa and several other states worked hard and believed they had a chance... until the votes started being counted. It was pretty bad across the map. In 19 states the GOP can draw the congressional maps any ole way they please without any input from Democrats. The only chambers that have changed hands were both the House and Senate in New Hampshire which went from blue to red. There may be party flips in 2 states still counting ballots, Alaska and Arizona.

Washington Post reporter Amber Phillips wrote this morning that "Republicans controlled the mapmaking process in most states after a stellar 2010 election and were able to draw state and congressional districts that made it harder for Democrats to regain power at all levels. It won't be as bad this time-- but almost.

Here are some of the states where Democrats still have a foot in the door in redistricting despite their poor 2020 election-- and states where they won’t but could really use one.

States where Democrats have a foot in the door

Michigan: Michigan is one of a growing number of states with an independent redistricting commission. Voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment in 2018 to assign the map-drawing duties to a group of citizens rather than leave it to politicians.

But some Michigan Republicans have tried to argue that the commission is unconstitutional and want to defund it. So Democrats wanted to win even more control of state government to brace for the political fight they know is coming over these maps, no matter who draws them.

They tried this November to flip the Michigan state House (the state Senate is so far in Republican control it wasn’t in contention for them.) But they didn’t. They’ll still have the governor’s mansion to push back on any GOP-led changes to the independent commission.

Still, Democrats are hopeful that the independent commission will draw fairer lines, and then they’ll have a new map for state and congressional districts in time for 2022 elections.

Pennsylvania: Like Michigan, Pennsylvania is a swing state with divided control: a Democratic governor and Republican legislature. Democrats had hoped to flip the state House-- and maybe the state Senate in a really good year-- but didn’t flip either.

Still, Democrats may have more of a cushion here than in other states. Pennsylvania had been known as one of the most extremely gerrymandered states until 2018, when the state Supreme Court declared GOP maps unconstitutional because they were so partisan and forced the drawing of new ones. That played a huge role in helping Democrats win back the majority in Congress in 2018. Democrats are probably hoping that the state court can play a backstop to any map-drawing battles they lose this year.

Wisconsin:

Democrats control the governor’s mansion and had no hope of trying to get the legislature in their control. But they did manage to stop Republicans from winning a veto-proof majority in the state legislature that would have given the GOP near-absolute control over the mapmaking process.

The likeliest outcome in Wisconsin is that Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on maps, and it gets booted to the courts. That could help Democrats, who tend to believe that the courts order fairer-drawn maps than Republicans would if left to their own devices.

States where Democrats will have no foot in the door-- and could really use one

  Florida:

This swing state at the presidential level is dominated by Republicans at the state level, who have controlled the governor’s mansion and state legislature for two decades. And that means Republicans have had control over state and congressional district boundaries for two all-important redistricting opportunities as Florida grows in population and changes in demographics. They are about to start their third. (Some Democrats thought a really strong Democratic wave could have flipped a chamber here, but others never thought it was in play. And no Democratic wave manifested anyway.)

You can see the results of Republican power at the state level on Florida’s congressional delegation. Democrats will control just 11 of Florida’s 27 congressional districts next year, and that’s before Republicans get to draw new maps.

Georgia:

Georgia Democrats proved themselves a force at the presidential and U.S. Senate level this November. (Democrats managed to push two GOP-held Senate seats to runoffs in January. In the battle for the White House, we’re still waiting on results, but Democrats have a chance to win Georgia for the first time in nearly three decades.)

Like Florida, some Democrats were hopeful that a blue tsunami in November had the potential to flip the state House. But that didn’t happen. Which means that like Florida, the state is controlled by Republicans, and they will get to decide state legislative and congressional districts for the next decade.

Texas:

Democrats picked up zero congressional seats in Texas, despite hoping to pick up several. They had hoped to pick up an entire state legislative chamber, the state House, which would go a long way toward helping House Democrats keep control of Congress by giving them a say in the map-drawing process for this major state. They won’t have such a foot in the door now; the state government remains entirely controlled by Republicans.

Still, Democrats protected about a dozen state legislative incumbents who won in 2018 in tough seats. At least they didn’t go backward in their foothold in the state legislature, one Democrat put it.

Iowa:

Iowa has an independent redistricting commission, but the state legislature has influence over approving those maps. And Democrats are worried that Iowa Republicans could make the map-drawing process more partisan.

Democrats were trying to flip the state House to protect against such changes. They were four seats away from taking control, but instead, Republicans gained six state legislative seats there, strengthening their majority.

North Carolina:

The governor of North Carolina will remain a Democrat after November’s elections. But unlike in many other states, he doesn’t have the authority to veto a legislature’s electoral maps. Democrats made it a big priority to try to flip both chambers and ended up flipping neither. Republicans actually strengthened their majorities in both.

Ohio:

Ohio voters recently approved a constitutional amendment to try to reduce gerrymandering, but the Republican-controlled state legislature still controls much of the process. Republican state lawmakers also have an opening in the new commission to try to tweak their districts mid-decade.

Democrats wanted to flip the partisan control of the state Supreme Court so they could have power to change Republican-drawn maps via the courts. They ended up falling one seat short.

Kansas:

Kansas has a Democratic governor who could veto maps. But Republicans have a supermajority in the state legislature to override her veto. Democrats tried to break that supermajority in November but weren’t able to.

 

The Mississippi state legislature must be a wild place

Missouri is close to being a one-party state. The Republicans control it all-- the governorship, which pro-COVID incumbent Mike Parson was elected 1,713,153 (57.2%) to 1,216,392 (40.6%), the state Senate (which the GOP controls 23-8) and the state House (which the GOP controls 113-48). Yesterday, the Kansas City Star reported that the 3 adult children of Missouri Rep-elect Rick Roeber (R) have implored the next speaker of the House not to seat him, saying they all suffered some combination of physical, mental and sexual abuse by him. Roeber, a pastor, narrowly beat Chris Hager, 10,779 (50.8%) to 10,434 (49.2%) to represent an open red seat southeast of Kansas City (HD-34). The seat was open because the incumbent, Roeber's wife died in office. Note: Not every Republican state legislator rapes his children.

A Glimpse At Wisconsin's Political Future-- Meet Francesca Hong

 

Francesca Hong is a super-progressive running for a deep blue Assembly seat in Madison, Wisconsin. And, believe me, the Republicans are going to be very sorry to see her. A champion of the working class, she is fearless, courageous and doesn't take any crap. Born and raised in Madison, she's a first generation Korean American who opened a restaurant and had a son in 2016. She is the co-founder of the Ladies Collective and Cook It Forward and this year organized the first annual Femmestival. Her Republican opponent is running a non-campaign as an extra curricular activity to boost his resume before he goes into real estate development. I asked Francesca to introduce herself and I urge you to consider supporting her. Why? She seems destined for great things-- in the Assembly and beyond.

No Complacency
-by Francesca Hong

The state of Wisconsin has a rich history in progressive politics. In the late 19th century, Milwaukee bricklayers and other laborers showed that strength in numbers far outweighed the power of monetary capital. They organized for fair wages and safe working conditions, and the modern day labor union was born. In 1916, Daniel Hoan was elected Mayor of the city of Milwaukee, sweeping in an era of socialist priorities and policies unmatched by any other city in the nation. Time Magazine even called Milwaukee “...one of the best-run cities in the U.S.” The city of Madison, capital of the state, home to the University of Wisconsin, and exclusively run by the most progressive elected officials in Wisconsin, has repeatedly topped the lists of best places to live and work in the U.S. by academic studies and national magazines. Wisconsin has a world-class, Medicaid-funded healthcare program that provides essentially free care for those who are unable to afford it in the private sector, and it was signed into law by a Republican governor. But the state is slipping.

As the conservative Tea Party movement of 2010 won elections and swept into Congress and state legislatures across the country, Wisconsin lost many of the lawmakers and officials that made the state a shining beacon of progressivism. The GOP-run state legislature, and Scott Walker, the Koch brothers funded governor, gutted public unions, made terrible deals with foreign corporations, and gerrymandered themselves into perpetual one-party rule. As teachers and nurses fled the state for better jobs, the state’s economy took a steep downturn. But Wisconsin fought back.

In the 2018 gubernatorial election, Tony Evers defeated Scott Walker by a slim majority, and pressed pause on the Republican legislature’s undemocratic free-for-all. In April of 2020, the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election was held in the midst of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The conservative-led state court forced voters to cast their ballots in person and liberal judge, Jill Karofsky, still won the election, tipping the scale closer to a liberal majority. In the partisan primary elections in August, record numbers of voters cast their ballots for progressive candidates statewide, including me. I won my election in a packed seven candidate primary in the 76th assembly district that represents the isthmus of Madison. Fifty women are running for state Senate and Assembly seats for the November election. Samba Baldeh is assured to be the first Muslim in the state legislature, and I am all but confirmed to be the first AAPI. But there can be no complacency, we have work to do.

The Wisconsin state legislature has left a lot to be desired in terms of bold, progressive and effective policy making. We are still the most segregated state in the nation. In the next two years, we must push through a comprehensive legislative agenda that centers racial equity and uplifts our working class and communities of color. And yes, while gerrymandering has infringed upon the democratic process in our state legislature, we cannot lose hope that a better Wisconsin-- one that serves the people, especially our youth-- is possible.

Moving forward, our vision is a constituency in the 76th assembly district that knows its representative is fighting every day to make their voices heard. This isn’t a job and I am not a representative. It is a movement, and I am a conduit. My task is not to be the voice of the 76th district in the legislature, but to lift the voices of this community so that they may lead this progressive movement. And we must get started immediately.

We will fight for a Green New Deal that centers racial equity, union jobs, agricultural infrastructure, a carbon-free 2030, and a progressive tax reform that holds the wealthiest accountable to finally pay their fair share. We can no longer allow the billionaires to ravage the state of its resources and destroy our infrastructure in the process. That’s not capitalism, that’s corporate vandalism.

We must push for a better Badgercare for all. No one should have to pay for a single doctor’s visit or medical procedure in this state, especially during a global pandemic. Women should have full body autonomy, which include access to abortions and sexual health services without the intrusion of career politicians and religious zealots. It’s time we take politics out of reproductive health.

We know that all Wisconsinites deserve the very basic human rights of a living wage, healthcare and access to opportunity so they can be agents of their own change to build a better tomorrow. The role of state government is to enable coalition building and provide our citizens with the tools to participate in an egalitarian democracy. This state has served the people before, and I am confident we can do it again. I will hold myself accountable every single day to uphold these values and I will challenge both Democrats and Republicans to be responsible and accountable to the highest standard of public service.