Can Ohio Trumpist Mike Turner Be Defeated Next Year?

Turner and his guy

Mike Turner, the former mayor of Dayton, was elected to Congress in 2002. Most of his district (OH-10) is very purple, swingy Montgomery County, all of it. But Republicans in the state legislature added all of Greene County and enough solid red territory in Fayette Co. to guarantee that Turner can probably never be defeated. In 2008, Obama beat McCain in Montgomery Co. 146,000 to 128,681 and 4 years later Obama beat Romney 137,139 (51.42%) to 124,841 (46.81%). In 2016, the election was incredible close:

• Trump- 123,909 (47.97%)
• Hillary- 122,016 (47.24%)

On the same day, Republican Senator Rob Portman was reelected. Montgomery County was part of that, giving him a 144,700 (57.01%) to 98,101 (38.65%) win over pathetic Democrat Ted Strickland. In last year's Senate election, Montgomery County gave the win to Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, 115,200 (56.1%) to 90,242 (43.9%). That's swing county. Neither Greene nor Fayette is though. Both are solid red. Tuner won all three counties last year. The partisan advantage in Fayette was R+45 and in Greene it was R+30. Montgomery, though, was, as you would expect, much closer-- R+7.

It's Greene and Fayette that allow the kind of crackpot e-mail, straight from the Republican Party talking points generator, that Turner sent his constituents over the weekend:

Congress continues to be stalled because of Adam Schiff's fabricated impeachment investigation. This circus show needs to end! Schiff needs to be held accountable for his actions.

...Productivity in Congress is no more because of Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi's lack of leadership in the House. What he is doing to the American people and this country is an absolute disgrace.

Legislation to lower prescription drug prices, passing the USMCA, and to fight the opioid epidemic are all stalled because of this fabricated impeachment investigation. I won't have it. I am in Congress fighting for these important issues, yet Adam Schiff continues to play politics over impeachment.

Americans deserve to know why Schiff is wasting their taxpayer dollars. This political investigation has to end. Tell Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi that enough is enough.

Can Turner's brain-dead support for Trump-- as a member of the House Intel Committee, he made a fool of himself at the impeachment inquiry several times-- be defeated next year? OH-10 isn't on any DCCC target lists. Right now, there are two Democrats competing for the nomination, middle of the road law school student Desiree Tims and woke scientist/egineer Eric Moyer. She's raised $41,603 and he hasn't raised anything. Moyer's statement sounds like the kind of values-laden appeal that could work-- if he can get it out: "This campaign is about kitchen table economics. It’s about returning the national conversation to solving the everyday issues of the people in our community: healthcare, wages, and education. I am a scientist, an engineer, and a community activist who was trained to identify problems and to solve them-- and that’s what I will do in Congress. The poor and the middle class have been waiting too long for wealth to start trickling down. Together we will begin to take back our power from the politicians who are absent from the community and unresponsive to our needs. We will also demand that the rich stop exploiting our health and our wealth for their own profit." He is campaigning on Medicare-for-All, tuition-free public universities and trade schools, $15 minimum wage, the Green New Deal, gun reform, strengthening organized labor, campaign finance reform, racial justice and the rest of the national progressive platform. Tims, on the other hand, sounds like a cross between Biden and Mayo.

It's probably worth noting that Morning Consult's Trump Tracker found Turner's guy down 19 points in Ohio since being inaugurated. Trump's approval among Ohio voters is now 46% and his disapproval is 51%-- 5 points underwater. That, alas, is not enough to displace Turner on its own. OH-10 will need to see a well-financed and politically compelling Democratic campaign-- and a bigger anti-red wave-- for that to happen.