Yes, The Senate Is Now Winnable-- Thank Señor Trumpanzee

Look, I've been Señor Optimista about the midterms ever since Señor Trumpanzee entered the White House. It was obvious to me that he'd unleash an anti-red wave, especially if the Republican Congress acted as enablers, which they certainly have. Unlike the tepid DC prognosticators, I've been predicting "over 50" seats going from red to blue in the House since 2016 and I still do. But when it comes to the Senate... I've been as tepid as anyone. It's an impossible map for Democrats. Everything has to go well for even a one-vote Democratic majority, starting with a generally piss-poor batch of Democratic incumbents winning in Trump states-- particularly Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Bill Nelson (FL), Joe Manchin (WV), John Tester (MT), Joe Donnelly (IN) and Claire McCaskill (MO). Manchin seems safe and Tester may be... but the others are all too close to call. Nelson is a serious weak link. But say Democrats even win them all, they still need two seats-- three to be safe.

Schumer has picked three conservatives to run in blue-leaning Nevada (Jackie Rosen) and in the two states with open seats-- Arizona (Krysten Sinema), and Tennessee (Phil Bredesen). Bredesen, former two-term popular moderate governor, is a top notch candidate. The other two are real garbage choices-- but all three are looking like winners. And then, out of the blue, rode Beto O'Rourke and no one really believed he could beat Ted Cruz. Schumer's DSCC has basically ignored the race. which is a good thing for Beto. He's the only one of the three endorsed by Blue America... and he has climbed and climbed all cycle and is now in a dead heat with Cruz, so much so that Cruz has been in a state of hysteria. You can contribute to his 100% people-powered campaign by clicking on the 2018 Senate thermometer on the right. If he wins, McConnell and the GOP are toast... and Trump will be spending the next two years on heavy tranquilizers.

Yesterday, CNN reported that the Democrats are actually winning in 2 seats that would give them the majority. Rosen is likely to win there as well, since Nevada has lots of independent voters and the wave will be strong there. Jennifer Agiesta, CNN's Polling Director wrote that Sinema and Bredesen are "leading their Republican opponents for open seats [in] Arizona and Tennessee, where sitting Republican senators are retiring." Sinema is ahead of Republican Martha McSally by 7 points, 50% to 43% among likely voters, while in Tennessee, Bredesen holds a 5-point edge over far right fanatic and Trumpist Marsha Blackburn, 50% to 45% among likely voters there.

Arizona and Tennessee are two of the four states where Democrats are widely seen as having at least some chance of picking up Senate seats in November's election. The others are Texas-- viewed as more of a long-shot-- and Nevada-- generally viewed as the Democrats' best chance for a Senate pickup. In order for the party to have any shot at taking control of the senate, it's almost certain that at least one seat from Arizona or Tennessee would need to go Democrats' way.

Arizona has been a Democratic target for some time on account of its changing demographic profile, though the state hasn't voted for a Democrat in major statewide elections since Janet Napolitano's turn as governor in the Bush years. Tennessee has generally moved away from its more Democratic-friendly past. Those differences are readily apparent in the two states' impressions of President Donald Trump in the new polls. In Tennessee, likely voters are about evenly split on the president's performance, 49% approve and 48% disapprove, far outpacing his nationwide approval rating in the latest CNN polling of 36%. In Arizona, by contrast, Trump fares only slightly better than his national number, with 39% of likely voters saying they approve of the way he's handling his job while 57% disapprove.

...Democrats hope that a ticket topped by Bredesen, the state's former governor whose positive favorability ratings outstrip the negative by a 2--to-1 margin (52% favorable to 24% unfavorable among the state's registered voters), can outweigh the state's underlying Republican tilt. Blackburn, by contrast, splits public opinion, with 41% of registered voters viewing her favorably and 39% unfavorably, with 20% unsure. Bredesen's edge here is driven by cross-party appeal. Although his favorability ratings are underwater among Republicans, 28% of them have a favorable view of him, while just 9% of Democrats have a positive view of Blackburn.

In Arizona, both Sinema and McSally are viewed more positively than negatively, though more than 2-in-10 likely voters say they have no opinion of each Senate candidate.

Health care tops the list of voters' most important issues in both states, with 29% calling it tops in their Senate vote in Tennessee and 25% saying the same in Arizona. The economy follows in Tennessee at 22%, immigration lands third at 16%. In Arizona, immigration is next on the list at 22%, with the economy just behind at 20%. Voters who say health care is their top issue are broadly supportive of the Democrat in both contests, breaking for Bredesen over Blackburn by 71% to 21%, and for Sinema over McSally by 75% to 14%. Both economy and immigration voters favor the Republican in each state. Blackburn holds a whopping 50-point lead among immigration voters in Tennessee and a 10-point advantage among economy voters. In Arizona, McSally tops Sinema by 33 points among immigration voters and 24 points among those who call the economy the most important issue in their vote.

In both states, Republicans have the upper hand in the gubernatorial race. Governor Doug Ducey narrowly tops David Garcia in Arizona, 49% to 46%, while Republican Bill Lee leads Karl Dean in the race for Tennessee's open governor's seat by 52% to 43%. Ducey's recent appointment of former Senator Jon Kyl to fill the Senate vacancy created by the death of Sen. John McCain earns high marks among Arizonans, 50% overall approve of the appointment while just 24% disapprove. Approval rises to 60% among those most likely to turn out to vote.

My guess is that Trump will campaign in Tennessee frequently and keep out of Arizona and Nevada. Democrats are looking forward to his promised rally with Ted Cruz somewhere in Texas-- though probably not Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, El Paso, Forth Worth... or anywhere else where his popularity is deep underwater.