Trump Is Proving To Be Absolutely Toxic For Republicans In Swing Districts Currently Held By Republicans

More Democrats need to run on this and NOT on Pelosi's insane idea of restoring PAY-GO

Two very different polls with interesting information came out this morning, one from Quinnipiac and one from Monmouth. Both carry very bad news for the GOP. I bet you haven't seen this before: American voters believe 55% to 28% that the allegations "anonymous" made-- and that were made by anonymous senior White House staffers in Fear that Trump's top aides work behind his back "to keep him from making what the aides believe are bad decisions"-- are true. Even 27% of Republicans believe it! Normal Americans seem much more certain than Republicans are. Among Democrats, 82% believe the assertions and among Independent voters 52% believe (and 33% don't believe). Asked if Trump is honest or not, 32% of Americans say he is and 60% understand that he's a congenital liar, incapable of opening his filthy mouth without lying. Among Republicans, only 17% understand he's a liar, but 92% of Democrats and 63% of Independents do. Nor is dishonesty the only trait polled that contributes to Trump's overall 38/54% approval/disapproval rating.

• Good leadership skills- No- 57%
• Cares about average Americans- No- 55%
• Level-headed- No- 65%
• Strong- Yes- 57%
• Intelligent- Yes- 51%
• Shares your values- No- 60%
• Mentally stable- Yes- 48% (42% say he's out of his mind)

The all-important fit to serve as president question- 41% say he is and 55% understand he isn't. By a 90-7% margin Republicans think he is fit to serve. 96% of Democrats say he isn't. Among independent votes, 42% say he's fit to serve and 53% say he isn't. That's a pretty bad hand Republicans are going into the midterms with. And that's what the Monmouth Poll dealt with-- but in just 8 key Republican-held battleground districts polled between June and August.

Unfortunately, Monmouth doesn't seem to be releasing the specific information by congressional district. I called them and tried, unsuccessfully, to get it out of them. These are the districts they polled: CA-48 (Rohrabacher), PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick), PA-17 (Keith Rothfus), NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur), NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen), OH-12 (Troy Balderson), VA-10 (Barbara Comstock), WV-03 (Evan Jenkins). Let me give you the information they reported (the average more or less of the 8 districts combined) and then I'll get into what I could find by scrounging around their site about the individual districts.

Among likely voters in the 8 districts, Democrats lead 47-43%. The two italicized incumbents are not running for reelection. The pollster reminds us that in all 8 districts Republican candidates won-- routinely-- by double digit margins in recent cycles. Findings:

• Where voters live has an impact on the margin of support. GOP House candidates are underperforming in Republican precincts relative to the Democrats’ performance in their base precincts. The Republican lead is between 4 and 13 percentage points in precincts that Romney/Trump carried, with the range depending on the size of the GOP presidential ticket’s margin. The Democratic lead is much stronger at 15 to 28 points in districts carried by Obama/Clinton.  In competitive districts – those where the average margin was less than 5 points for either party’s presidential ticket-- Democratic House candidates have a slim lead of 4 points. Also, the Democratic House candidate does better overall in precincts where Trump did worse than Romney even after controlling for the precinct’s partisan lean.
• Race, education and gender define key voting groups. Republicans’ core voting bloc is comprised of white men without a college degree, while Democrats can count on strong support from white female college graduates as a well as women of color regardless of educational attainment. White women without a degree and white male college graduates are more competitive groups, as are, to a lesser degree, men of color. White men without a degree who are registered Democrats and women of color who are registered Republicans are the most likely to cross party lines in their 2018 House vote.
• Partisan differences in election interest. High interest is more prevalent among voters supporting the Democratic candidates (62%) than it is among those supporting the Republicans (54%) in these eight races. The highest levels of interest come from college educated white men (75%) and women (72%) who are supporting a Democratic House candidate.
• Strongly held opinions of Trump lean negative. While voter opinion of Trump is evenly divided at 49% approve and 48% disapprove, there is a negative gap when looking only at strongly held opinions-- 33% strongly approve and 40% strongly disapprove in these eight districts.

Nw let's look at the district by district information I was able to cobble together within a reasonable time-frame relative to the above information.

• NJ-03- Trump's approval is 46% (33% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (41% strongly). 48% of NJ-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 43% say they support him.

• PA-17- Trump's approval is 44% (28% strongly) and his disapproval is 51% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-17 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 46% say they support him.

• CA-48- Trump's approval is 46% (32% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (39% strongly). 48% of CA-48 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• NJ-11- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 43% of NJ-11 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 49% say they support him.

• VA-10- Trump's approval is 42% (24% strongly) and his disapproval is 53% (47% strongly). 39% of VA-10 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• PA-01- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-01 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 44% say they support him.

• WV-03- Trump's approval is 66% (49% strongly) and his disapproval is 30% (23% strongly). 29% of WV-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 65% say they support him.

Wondering what this translates to nationally? It's impossible to be precise but it's a lot more than the 23 seats the Democrats need for a House Majority. In fact, it's more like something between two or three times more. There are always special circumstances in every race. In WV-03, as you can see, Trump has very high approvals. The PVI there is red, red, red-- R+23-- and Trump slaughtered Hillary, 72.5% to 22.5%. But you know who else slaughtered Hillary there? Bernie. And the colorful Democratic candidate in the district, state Senator Richard Ojeda, supported Bernie in the primary and Trump in the general-- just like so many WV-03 voters did. He's also created a unique brand for himself. That's likely to be the reddest district in the country won by a Democrat, but it's proof that if the DCCC keeps out of primaries, anything can happen.

And today's last poll-- this one from CNN-- was more bad news for Trumpanzee and his GOPzee. Over the last month, Señor T’s approval rating has dropped six points 36% from 42%. His disapproval is now 58%. And for Republicans running in the midterms, the worst part of this is that Trump's troubles are coming from... independent voters. "Among independents, the drop has been sharper, from 47% approval last month to 31% now. That's 4 points below his previous 2018 low of 35% approval among political independents in CNN polling, and 1 point below his previous all-time low among independents in CNN polling, reached in November 2017."sn't around messing up races and thwarting the wave, virtually anything can happen.