The Democrats Have A Not So Secret Weapon For The Midterms: Señor Trumpanzee

Do Americans like being lied to? Over a third apparently don't mind-- or are incapable of discerning a consistent pattern of lying-- when the liar is the authoritarian daddy-figure they craze. When the Washington Post first started their project to measure how many lies Trump tells per day, "he averaged 4.9 claims a day. But the average number of claims per day keeps climbing" and at his 592nd day in office he's publicly lied 4,713 times-- and average of 8 lies a day.

Writing for The Atlantic this week, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd urged fellow journalists to stop complaining about Trump's vilification of the media-- and to start fighting back. "There’s a new kind of campaign underway, one that most of my colleagues and I have never publicly reported on, never fully analyzed, and never fully acknowledged: the campaign to destroy the legitimacy of the American news media."

The American press corps finds itself on the ropes because it allowed a nearly 50-year campaign of attacks inspired by the chair of Fox News to go unanswered.

If you hear something over and over again, you start to believe it, particularly if the charge is unrebutted. The Trump team now keeps pounding this message, compounding the challenge. And the president faces little penalty with his voters, no matter how disparagingly he talks about the press corps; it’s precisely what Ailes conditioned them to believe.

For me, idle death threats are now the norm. (I don’t take them seriously, because if I did, I’d never feel at peace.) But forget the personal animus or safety issues reporters now face. American democracy requires a functioning press that informs voters and creates a shared set of facts. If journalists are going to defend the integrity of their work, and the role it plays in sustaining democracy, we’re going to need to start fighting back.

...I’m not advocating for a more activist press in the political sense, but for a more aggressive one. That means having a lower tolerance for talking points, and a greater willingness to speak plain truths. It means not allowing ourselves to be spun, and not giving guests or sources a platform to spin our readers and viewers, even if that angers them. Access isn’t journalism’s holy grail-- facts are.

On some level, the midterms are going to be determined on how strongly voters-- both enthusiastic voters and discouraged voters, who may not exercise their franchise in November-- feel about being lied to so consistently by an illegitimate occupant of the White House. About a month or so ago, a CBS News tracker poll showed that 66% of voters feel that what Trump passes off as "truth" is an inaccurate source of information and that just 34% think what he says is accurate. 42% find the media to be an accurate source of information and 56% trust their friends and family as sources of accurate information. Among Trumpist voters that changes... radically:

That 30-35% of the voting population is not going to be swayed, not by anything. There were 5 new polls released Tuesday-- all of them basically bad news for a GOP rightly equated with the regime they've enabled and rubber-stamped. The new one from ABC and the Washington Post shows that among registered voters Democratic candidates "hold their widest advantage in midterm election vote preferences since 2006, when they seized control of both houses of Congress-- a 52% to 38% lead that "holds up across a range of likely voter models." And, yes, that is absolutely a reflection of Señor Trumpanzee's broad unpopularity. Just 36% of Americans approve of his job performance, the lowest approval rating for a president heading into his first midterms in polling dating to back to 1954. "Underscoring Trump’s potential role, 59 percent of registered voters say it’s highly important to them to support a candidate who shares their opinion of the president. Essentially equal numbers of Trump’s supporters and opponents say so. The difference is that his critics outnumber his backers by a 22-point margin in this survey. Notably, far fewer, 34 percent, strongly seek a candidate who shares their view of Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader and GOP election foil. Other results underscore the Democrats’ opportunity and the GOP’s challenge. Among them:

• While 51 percent of Americans say the Democratic Party is out of touch with most people’s concerns, that’s down 16 points since April 2017. And many more, 63 percent, say both Trump and the Republican Party are out of touch, with no gain for either.

• Sixty-five percent of registered voters say it’s more important to them to vote compared with past midterm elections. Among those who approve of Trump’s work in office, 56 percent say so. But among the much larger number who disapprove of Trump, many more, 73 percent, say it’s more important to them to vote this year.

• The number of self-reported registered voters who say they’re certain to vote this year has grown from 62 percent in January to 67 percent in April to 75 percent now. Those gains have occurred disproportionately in more Democratic groups-- up 24 points among blacks since April, up 17 points among 18- to 29-year-olds and up 11 points among Democrats and moderates alike, for example.

• The shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents in the survey is typical of their long-term levels-- 34, 27 and 33 percent, respectively, among registered voters. But more independents are now leaning toward the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party-- 46 percent, vs. 36 percent in April. 


A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds very similar numbers-- Democrats leading 50% to 39%. Same with the new Emerson College poll, which finds Democrats ahead 52% to 39%. And, again, Trump is an anchor for the GOP.

Almost identical results from the new IBD/TIPP poll: Trump's approval "nose-dives" and blue wave is building. Just 36% approved of how Trump handles his job, a 5-point drop from last month. "Trump lost significant ground on job approval with Republicans this month, which fell from 83% last month to 76% this month. Among independents, Trump's approval dropped 4 points to 33%. Democratic approval has never been above the low single digits... His support among rural dwellers plunged 15 points-- going from 60% to 45%. It fell 7 points among suburban voters to 35%." Their overall finding was that 50% of registered voters now say they'd prefer Congress controlled by Democrats, with 39% favoring Republican control.


Missouri

The 5th survey was an NBC-Marist poll of Missouri voters. Missouri used to be considered a purple state. It really isn't any longer. The state PVI is R+9 (same as Mississippi and Indiana, worse than Texas or South Carolina, each R+8). In 2008 McCain beat Obama 49.4% to 49.2%; in 2012 Romney beat him 53.8% to 44.4%; and in 2016 Trumpanzee slaughter Hillary 56.8% to 38.1%. That doesn't look purple-- nor headed purple-- to me. Still, the new polling, is positive for conservative Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill, currently locked in a dead heat with challenger Josh Hawley, 47% to 47%.

Among registered voters, Trump's approval/disapproval is 44-46% and among likely voters it is 45-46%. (Clearly, McCaskill needs to appeal to the Democratic base more effectively, or at least turn off the GOP base.) When the question "Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?" was asked, 50% of likely voters had an unfavorable impression and just 44% had a favorable impression. St the same time 45% of likely voters want to see a Congress controlled by the GOP and just 41% want to see a Congress controlled by Democrats. There are no seriously contested House races in Missouri, just the very crucial Senate race.

A question on the poll that stood out: If November's election for U.S. Senate in Missouri were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

• Claire McCaskill (D)- 44%
• Josh Hawley (R)- 40%
• Japheth Campbell (Libertarian)- 5%
• Jo Crain (Green)- 3%
• undecided- 8%