Republicans Begin Picking Incumbents And Challengers To Toss Overboard

The governing philosophy of the DCCC-- which just has to change-- is that the Democratic Party can only be the lesser of two evils. Anything better than that will alienate the powerful Republican wing of the party (the Blue Dogs, New Dems, "ex"-Republicans and fellow travelers). So the congressional party stands for... not much. Earlier you may have seen the meme up top that Ro Khanna posted. That's what American voters-- the ultimate grassroots-- want. It is not what the Democratic establishment wants, or at least it is not what the Democratic establishment is willing to fight for. The tent is too big and the policies step on too many donor toes. Time to jettison the dead-weight? How is that even possible now when we have millions of dollars in Republican money seeping into Democratic primaries, with tacit DCCC approval, to defeat progressives and bolster conservatives?

Every cycle, the DCCC losers have to decide which campaigns to back with big bucks and which campaigns to cut loose to fend for themselves. Invariably, they try to save the status quo conservatives and wave bye-bye to progressives. Watch this cycle when they do it again. They always do it. The DCCC has no ability at all to contest elections. They have the ability to wait around for an anti-red wave and then try to take credit for it. That's it. Anyway, this cycle, it's kind of satisfying to watch the GOP being forced into the triage position-- having to decide which campaigns to feed and which campaigns to leave on the side of the road to starve... to death. Alex Isenstadt pulled back the covers at Politico yesterday. He warned that the higher ups have already begun "deciding which GOP lawmakers to save and which ones to cut loose." Forget no man left behind; he's talking about incumbents. "With a massive field of vulnerable House incumbents to defend and limited resources to go around, Republicans are readying for a painful round of political triage-- deciding which lawmakers are worth trying to rescue, and which ones need to be cut loose to fend for themselves in November."

Already being pushed towards the side of the SS Trumpanzee to be tossed overboard at the right time are Barbara Comstock (R-VA), David Young (R-IA), Keith Rothfus (R-PA), Tom MacArthur (R-NJ), Kevin Yoder (R-KS) and Rod Blum (R-IA).

Brian Walsh, who oversees the grotesquely sleazy Trump SuperPAC America First Action, told Isenstandt that "At this point in the cycle with a field this large, difficult choices will have to be made. Such is the world we live in now." Did you know the GOP had such philosophical minds working behind the scenes for them?

Republican congressmembers in the suburbs are the likeliest cohort to get the heave-ho, since suburban voters detest Trump and are ready to take it out on his enablers. "The anxiety," wrote Isenstadt, "is already rising among lawmakers and their allies... During a House GOP Conference meeting this spring, NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers told members not to expect the party to bail them out later in the campaign if they failed to pull their weight. He pointed out that the party had already waged a costly and ultimately unsuccessful effort to rescue an underperforming candidate in a Pennsylvania special election. As proof of that approach, the House GOP campaign arm has barely budged despite pleas for additional financial support from endangered Iowa Rep. David Young and his campaign team-- at least partly because they view him as a sluggish campaigner, said two senior Republicans familiar with the party’s deliberations." Ex-Congressman Phil English added, "These are very Darwinian decisions. It means selection of the fittest."

I spoke with an NRCC staffer on condition of anonymity, someone I've known for years and who doesn't lie to me. He told me that GOP hopefuls in open districts are going to feel the pain more deeply than the incumbents. "Take a look at what happened Tuesday. In Florida there's an open Miami seat where Ileana [Ros Lehtinen] is retiring. Salazar won the primary and she thinks she's going to get some help from us; she's not. She doesn't have any chance. Shalala won the Democratic primary for the Democrats and that seat is flipping to blue. There are 2 open seats in Arizona, because the incumbents are contesting the open [Flake] Senate seat, one in Tucson and one in the Tempe, Scottsdale, Mesa, Chandler parts of Phoenix. We used to own that district but it's Democratic territory. Steve Ferrara is a good candidate, a Navy vet, solid guy but Greg Stanton was mayor of Phoenix. We can't help Ferrara this year. He's done for before he started. Same in Tucson. I know you don't like her but Ann Kirkpatrick is going back to Congress... Our candidate [Lea Marquez Peterson] is better than Kirkpatrick and in another year she might have had party support. This time she's on her own."

Open GOP seats are going to be overlooked by the NRCC as they scramble to save as many of their members as they can. Each of these is a dead meat seat for the NRCC this year-- and there's a lot of anger towards the party establishment. These are open Republican-held seats where the NRCC isn't going to spend money

• PA-05- Mary Scanlon will beat Pearl Kim
• PA-06- Chrissy Houlahan will beat Greg McCauley
• NJ-02- Jeff Van Drew will beat Seth Grossman
• CA-49- Mike Levin will beat Diane Harkey
• AZ-02- Ann Kirkpatrick will beat Lea Peterson
• FL-27- Donna Shalala will beat Maria Salazar
• NC-09- Don McCready will beat Mark Harris
• NJ-11- Mikie Sherrill will beat Jay Webber
• WV-03- Richard Ojeda will beat Carol Miller
• PA-07- Susan Wild will beat Marty Nothstein
• VA-05- Leslie Cockburn will beat Denver Riggleman
• KS-02- Paul Davis will beat Steve Watkins

And these 5 will probably wind up on the same list, but right now the NRCC is taking a wait-and-see position in the hope that the Republican candidates can pull ahead on their own for one reason or another-- like a bad Democratic candidate (CA-39, TX-21) or immense wealth (MI-11). In the case of WI-01, Paul Ryan's district, Ryan's superPAC is spending unlimited money to try to beat Randy Bryce.

• MI-11- Haley Stevens vs Lena Epstein
• CA-39- Gil Cisneros vs Young Kim
• WA-08- Kim Schrier vs Dino Rossi
• WI-01- Randy Bryce vs Bryan Steil
• TX-21- Joe Kopser vs Chip Roy

Please consider contributing to Randy Bryce's campaign by clicking on the thermometer above. More than any of the other candidates listed above, he's worth stretching the budget for.