OK, Do You Want To Know Who Would Win Every Race In California And Washington If The Election Was Today?
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• The statistics guys says "I don’t know," although he floats the possibility that "voters are tuning into the campaign to a greater degree than they had before-- and not liking what they see once they give Trump and Republicans a longer look."
• Mr. Statistics says "Your guess is as good as mine" but also says he thinks his own 10.8% generic ballot advantage for Team Blue "is too aggressive" and is probably overestimating the swing. [I think he's dead wrong.] He also discusses "historical norms," despite having an ahistoric presidency.
• "[I]t doesn’t take that much for Democrats to go from House underdogs to potentially taking 40 or more seats... If Democrats win the popular vote by “only” 5 to 6 percentage points-- still a pretty comfortable margin, but not necessarily enough to make up Republicans’ advantages due to gerrymandering, incumbency and the clustering of Democratic voters in urban districts-- they’re only about even-money to win the House. If they win it by 9 to 10 points, by contrast, they’re all but certain to win the House and in fact project to gain about 40 seats!"
His "Classic" model now projects a net of 37 seat gains for Democrats. Way too few and he's be moving that into the 40's by October and 50s by the end of October. Today I was just happy to see this one for Nebraska's 2nd district, metro Omaha-- basically an upgrade from toss-up to leans D:
What about the contested California races Ted Lieu is working so hard to swing from Red-to-Blue? Here they are, from north to south. So we'll start in Washington, where Silvers' model is wrong in all three races with a red bias:
There's nothing cooking in Oregon, so now we're down in California, starting with Ted's biggest long shot:
I hope Silver is right about this one and that I'm wrong, but this is one where you need more than statistics. But... like I said, Silvers may have this right (though if I had to bet cash...)
Then the other 2 Central Valley seat, Valadao's and Nunes'. He probably has Valadao's right and Nunes' isn't quite as dire as he makes it seem:
OK, and here's where we start winning so much we won't be able to stand winning any more. First CA-25, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley and Antelope Valley:
Except this one, where Cisneros, the lottery winner and an exceptionally bad candidate to begin with, is being successfully tarred as a woman-abuser
And that leaves us with another long shot, but a long shot that has gotten better when Drunken Hunter and his wife were arrested-- like in season 2 of Ozark and indicted on a few dozen charges.
I think Silver is giving Hunter too much benefit of the doubt and that the margin should be much narrower. In any case, Ted Lieu is doing a better job than all the other DCCC regional vice chairs combined-- by far. Here's a loving caricature Nancy Ohanian did of him after she met him a couple of weeks ago.
Labels: 2018 congressional races, California, Nate Silver, NE-02, Orange County, Ted Lieu, Washington
3 Comments:
Nate *did* project that Trump had a 1 in 3 chance of winning the morning of the election. Better than the pundits with their “Hillary’s blue wall.”
Also re his 30+ seat gain. That’s the average gain. His 80% probability goes as high as upper 50s.
I’d skip the deluxe version with “experts” added. Most experts aren’t. For instance, have you seen Cook’s & Sabato’s predictions? Way too cautious.
The "democratic" Party doesn't read polls. They read P&L statements so they know which corporate checks to accept and deposit. I expect they will still find a way to lose this election.
I told you about WA-05, didn't I. CMR comfortably wins to keep her lips on trump's asshole. Dumbest white people north of OK and KS.
Dino Rossi could still win, except they're actually interrogating his record... so we'll know how many kids WA truly wants to kill if he wins (all of them).
Basically, WA is blue seattle and purple Spokane bookending crimson and brain dead north Oklahoma.
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