More Campaign Advice From Eric Hogensen At HSG Campaigns: How Did Andrew Gillum Win?

Andrew picked Chris King as his running mate

Eric starts with the commonly held mainstream perception that Gillum's gubernatorial primary campaign was headed straight towards failure when... out of the blue-- he won.

• Andrew Gillum- 517,417 (34.3%)
• Gwen Graham- 472,735 (31.3%)
• Philip Levine- 306,450 (20.3%)
• Jeff Greene- 151,935 (10.1%)
• Christopher King- 37,464 (2.5%)

For as long as I've known Andrew-- until relatively recently-- he's been the head of People for the American Way's Young Elected Official. He's not a novice when it comes to winning elections. Not even close. "Florida’s gubernatorial primary," wrote Hogensen, "brought perhaps the biggest upset of the year, with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum pulling off a surprise win that almost nobody saw coming. With polls predicting a 3rd place finish, how did Gillum manage to pull off victory?" Good question, for sure... though people watching closely saw the surge as it was happening and, those reading DWT also saw the rapidly rising internal polling numbers in the last 2 weeks of the campaign. Here's how Hogensen explains how Andrew won, all of which is exactly what happened:

1. He Created Clear Contrast:

Gillum's story wasn't just inspiring, it set him apart. He's the son of a bus driver and a construction worker, the first in his family to attend college, and (would be) the state's first African American governor. Compare that to his main opponents, Gwen Graham, Philip Levine, or Jeff Greene, who all came from privileged backgrounds. And compared to second-place finisher, the super-centrist Graham, Gillum's strong progressive credentials gave Democratic primary voters a clear ideological choice

2. He Didn't Fear the Label:

Earning endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders sets you up to be labeled a "socialist" by Republicans, but Gillum feared not. Progressives have long argued that staying in the middle doesn't win general elections. You can't win if you don't inspire the base. Enough Democrats felt comfortable with that argument to nominate him. Both conservatives and progressives will have ample reason to vote now.

3. He Brought in New Voices:

From what we can tell so far, the reason Gillum surprised pollsters is because he built a coalition of under-sampled voters-- namely people of color and Millennials. Re-creating the Obama coalition, he boosted turnout and has obvious energy going into November.

The latest Quinnipiac poll (likely voters) shows Andrew leading his far right Trumpist opponent Ron DeSantis 50% to 47%. Andrew has 93% of Democrats and DeSantis has 92% of Republicans. Exactly normal. So where is Andrew's strength coming from? Independents are backing him 55-42%. Also women... by 55-42% Andrew also leads there, considerably greater than DeSantis' 52-45% lead among men. And the black vote favors Andrew 93-2%. If you'd like to help make sure Andrew can go all the way in November, please consider contributing to his campaign by click on the 2018 Blue America gubernatorial thermometer on the right.