Let Me Make Your Day

The 6 women in this focus group are all from swing states and all voted for Trump. Most would do it again... although half say they are disappointed. They all say they want to use the midterms to "send a message." Take a look. One thing for sure, this sure doesn't sound like part of any wave. But, keep in mind they were all Trump voters in 2016.

This morning Axios launched an idea for how they plan to measure the upcoming wave. Their premise is flawed, though, because they use the silly conventional wisdom that there's a blue wave. No one gives a shot about the shitty Democratic Party which is-- at best-- somewhat better than the Republican Party. If there's a wave-- and I am certain there is, it's an anti-red wave, not a blue wave. And they're not the same. A blue wave would mean enthusiasm for Democrats. The DCCC has made sure that would be impossible by recruiting a big bag of shit for candidates. Pelosi is killing whatever hope there could be for a progressive agenda by boasting she will institute PAYGO in January. An anti-red wave is just the widely shared certainty that Trump is not up to the job and that the congressional Republicans have no intention of checking him. That's what will sweep lots of Democraps into Congress.

Axios picked 8 races to watch to measure the non-existent blue wave. "If it's a truly strong wave," wrote Alexi McCammond, "we'll know not just from the high-profile races, but from lesser-known ones that would only be competitive if Democrats are winning everywhere." She then immediately offers one of the most high-profile races in the cycle as the first example: Beto vs Cruz in the Texas Senate contest.

2. Ohio gubernatorial: Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine are fighting to replace Gov. John Kasich. The last time Ohio elected a Democratic governor was in 2006. But Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball notes: "If Democrats are winning Ohio’s governorship they probably are winning at least 4-5 of the 6 Midwest governorships at play (maybe all 6)."

3. West Virginia's 3rd district: Trump won the district by 30 points, but Democrat Richard Ojeda is getting a lot of national attention in the race for this open seat. He’s redefining the West Virginia Democrat: he voted for Trump in 2016, he's pro-labor, pro-gun, and has the backing of the coal miners. The RealClearPolitics polling average suggests he's in a tight race with Republican Carol Miller.

4. California's 45th district: This seat is held by Republican Rep. Mimi Walters, and she's facing Democrat Katie Porter. Orange County is becoming increasingly diverse, and the number of registered Republican voters has consistently declined. If Democrats pull off a win here, Kondik says, it means they'll do well across Southern California, picking up crucial Republican-held seats in districts Hillary Clinton won.

5. Minnesota's 8th district: It's considered one of the Democrats' most at-risk seats this cycle. The incumbent, Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, is retiring. Democrats have held this district for years, and Barack Obama won it twice-- but it swung from Obama +6 in 2012 to Trump +15 in 2016. Democrat Joe Radinovich, a former state legislator and labor organizer, is facing Republican Pete Stauber, a county commissioner.

6. Texas' 23rd district: Incumbent Republican Rep. Will Hurd, a former CIA agent, faces Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones-- a Filipina-American, a member of the LGBTQ community and an Iraq war veteran. This district contains one-third of the U.S./Mexico border, has the second-highest population of DACA recipients, and has urban, rural, and suburban areas. Hurd has distanced himself from Trump.

7. Florida's 26th district: Health care is a big issue here, and it'll be a test of whether a moderate Republican in the Trump era can hold on to a largely Hispanic district. Many see incumbent Rep. Carlos Curbelo as one of the best-positioned Republicans in Clinton-won districts. But voters looking for something new could hand a surprise upset to Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Latina immigrant.

8. Iowa's 3rd district: It's held by Republican Rep. David Young, who Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball calls "an accidental incumbent." He was selected to run at a convention in Iowa in 2014 after getting less than 35% of the vote in the primary. If Democrat Cindy Axne wins here, Kondik says, that probably means they'll win Iowa's 1st district, held by vulnerable GOP Rep. Rod Blum, too.

The bottom line: If Democrats lose any of the above races, that doesn't mean they'll lose their chance to take back the House. But the more of these races they win, the more likely it is that the House and state offices will change hands-- and even the Senate might not be out of the question.

You want to know if the anti-red wave is massive? Forget this stuff (except the Texas Senate contest). If Democrats win these contests, all actual and reasonable possibilities, the GOP is WIPED OUT:

1- Former baseball player JD Scholten is within the margin of error against Steve King in Iowa's reddest district and momentum shows he's got a 50-50 chance right now.

2- Former rock dj Dayna Steele is running a competitive race against former dentist Brian Babin in one of Texas' reddest districts. The DCCC doesn't know anything about it but she's making this a bona fide two-party district.

3- Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50) and Nate McMurray (NY-27) are both running in red districts with R+11 PVIs. A Democrat win in a couple of seats that red? Impossible? Both Republicans have been indicted for serious criminal activities. Campa-Najjar has climbed into a statistical dead heat with Drunken Hunter and Nate McMurray is also surging now that the GOP has announced they're keeping incumbent Chris Collins on the ballot.

4- If far right sociopath Chris McDaniel (R) beats mainstream conservative Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and winds up in the general with Democrat Mike Espy, a former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, polls show Mississippi will elect a Democrat the the U.S. Senate. The last time Mississippi elected a non-incumbent Democrat to the Senate was in 1947. How old were your parents in 1947?

5- Gil Cisneros, a conservative Republican potato chip taster who won the lottery and is now a multimillionaire-- and claiming to be a Democrat-- was shoe-horned by the DCCC into CA-39, a district far from where he lives. He's probably their least viable candidate but they wanted to stay on his good side so he'd keep sending them money. He's the least-likely-to-win Democratic challenger in southern California. If he does win-- and if the wave is big enough, he will-- say kaddish for the California Republican Party.

6- The Wisconsin "trifecta +": a clean sweep-- Tony Evers beats Scott Walker, Tammy Baldwin beats Leah Vukmir, Randy Bryce beats Ryan-clone Brian Steil-- and the + part: The Democrats take back the state Senate by holding onto Caleb Frostman special election win on the Door Peninsula (SD-1) and taking 2 GOP seats where more Dems voted than Republicans in the primaries-- Kriss Marion beating Howard Marklein (SD-17) and Lee Snodgrass beating Roger Roth (SD-19).

7- Kansas flips when 2 progressives, Jim Thompson and Sharice Davids, plus a Blue Dog (Paul Davis), all win, switching the state House delegation from 4 Republicans and no Democrats, to 3 Democrats and 1 Republican. Could it happen? It's a damn shame that the DCCC got that Blue Dog the nomination for the eastern part of the state.

8- And in the Senate contests, Democrats hold all their seats and win in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas, giving McConnell a fatal heart attack in Louisville's Pickle Park in the wee hours of November 6 and then John Yamuth wins the special election, giving the Democrats a 54-46 majority.

If those 8 things happen, you won't just know there's a wave, well, a tsunami to be more precise... Trump will be asking Putin for political asylum; take my word for it.

Now, how about something a little less serious... a little more lighthearted? Trump has a funny dick, that looks "Like a toadstool… I lay there," wrote former sex-worker and Trump paramour Stormy Daniels, "annoyed that I was getting fucked by a guy with Yeti pubes and a dick like the mushroom character in Mario Kart… It may have been the least impressive sex I’d ever had, but clearly he didn’t share that opinion."