Did Señor Trumpanzee Have Another Bad Week?

Let's not go over the book and the Op-Ed again. We've heard enough about that, right? And no need to discuss Obama's speech again either, the two that most definitely did not cause Señor T to fall asleep. He'll probably be up all night worrying about the one Obama gave in Orange County today. Instead there are two other things that would have made for a bad week for two normal presidents.

First, his ill-advised trade wars have already caused trade to slow down. On Friday morning, David Fickling wrote that with Trump "expected to start implementing the next round of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods within hours, it’s tempting to think the global economy is riding out the turmoil. Tempting, but mistaken. Look closely: The slowdown has begun." The momentum of global commerce has crossed over into negative territory. But it isn't commodities. "The weakness is coming not from materials but from manufactured goods, as global supply chains seize up."

That’s consistent with the picture emerging on the ground. U.S. manufacturers “reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies,” according to the Federal Reserve’s July Beige Book, in addition to “higher input prices and shrinking margins.” The next edition, due out next week, is likely to show further impact, judging by the warnings from business leaders on the eve of the current round of levies.

Even that probably understates the extent of the underlying slowdown. In the U.S., port traffic has been running at record levels in recent months, suggesting the effect of tax cuts and a favorable monetary policy are more than making up for any trade jitters. However, a chunk of the movements probably relate to businesses stocking up early in order to beat the tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation, an industry group.

Previous trade slumps have often coincided with recessions. Will this one? I guarantee you one person who has no idea is the one running around the White House trying to discover who ratted him out to the failing NY Times.

Meanwhile, the imbecile was threatening to cause the "ruination" of Canada if he doesn't get his way. "Canada," he lied to a press gaggle on Air Force One as he was flying to North Dakota, "has been ripping us off for a long time. Now, they’ve got to treat us fairly. I don’t want to do anything bad to Canada. I can-- all I have to do is tax their cars, it would be devastating. If I tax cars coming in from Canada, it would be devastating." Later, in North Dakota he brought it up again. "Actually, on some countries, including Canada, a tax on cars would be the ruination of the country. That’s how big it is. It’d be the ruination of the country. Now, they’ve taken advantage of us for many decades. We can’t let this happen anymore. We have a country to run."

The second problem isn't that George Papadopoulos was sentenced to a short prison term yesterday-- Trump, who's been driven insane by all the book and OpEd stuff-- declared the shortness of the sentence was a great day for America. Instead, it's that Manafort is trying to negotiate a plea deal to avoid trial number 2. I doubt Mueller will even consider it unless he turns state's evidence against Putin's puppet and his crooked family-- which I couldn't imagine Manafirt doing.

The negotiations over a potential plea deal have centered on which charges Manafort might admit and the length of the sentence to be recommended by prosecutors working for Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the person familiar with the matter said. Manafort, 69, already faces as long as 10 years in prison under advisory sentencing guidelines in the Virginia case.

By pleading guilty, Manafort could avoid the risk of a longer prison term if he’s convicted at a second trial, as well as the threat of forfeiting several properties and financial accounts. He could also save the cost of paying lawyers to defend him at trial. Such white-collar criminal cases can cost defendants millions of dollars.

The talks may break down without a deal, but if they succeed, they could prompt Mueller to request a reduced sentence in both the Washington and Virginia cases. It’s not clear whether Manafort might cooperate in Mueller’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to the person. Trump, who said he was “very sad” after Manafort’s conviction, could still pardon him.

...“I think there’s a 70 percent chance that you’re going to see a guilty plea,” said Gene Rossi, a former federal prosecutor who observed the first Manafort trial. “What’s the point of a second trial? There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll be convicted on some charges. He may be acquitted of obstruction, but the money laundering charge is a slam dunk.”

Manafort has been in custody since June 15, when U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson revoked his bail after prosecutors said he attempted to tamper with witnesses in the Washington case.

“The power of detention is enormous,” Rossi said. “Being detained is an incredible disadvantage to a defendant. You can’t prepare for a trial as well as you could.”

Manafort may conclude that he can’t afford the emotional and financial cost of a second trial, he said. “He may say, ‘I’m going plead and cooperate. I don’t have the money. I’m exhausted and don’t have the emotional energy to go through this. My family and close friends have been through a big storm, and I don’t want to put them through that again.’ Defendants get worn down,” Rossi said.

...Former federal prosecutor Patrick Cotter said defendants often have a hard time grasping that they’re running out of legal options.

“Guys who’ve gotten away with a lot of stuff before they get to prison” often show a lot of bravado, he said. “On the day of conviction they still believe there will be one more inning. It takes awhile before they realize there are no more innings.”