How Safe Does A Safe Seat Have To Be To Keep A Congressman From Being A K'az'r?

Can you think of the last time we backed the DCCC on anything? I can't. And Steve Israel? Never. But in the case of Floridian gerrymandering, the DCCC is correct and the Congressional Black Caucus is wrong. CBC Chair Marcia Fudge may be right about Steve Israel not valuing minorities-- hello? Blue Dog?-- and I'm delighted Fudge is going to try to block his rise in the House leadership.

Do you know what a kʼazʻr is? Well, ok? That's the Yiddish spelling. Let me trying an English transliteration: chazzer… but the "ch" has a guttural sound like you're about the spit out a deep throatful of phlegm-- rather than Rickie and Lucy doing the cha-cha-cha. Anyway a kʼazʻr is a greedy pig. And the CBC, I'm afraid is taking a kʼazʻr-ish position on this gerrymandering thing.

Corrine Brown's ridiculous district twists and turns down from the African American neighborhoods of Jacksonville-- that aren't even contiguous-- along a narrow strip a mile or two wide along Rt 17 (which then disappears into Ted Yoho's district and through some sparsely populated rural areas until finally finding Palatka in the east and African-American neighborhoods of Gainesville in the west before chugging down into Sanford and Pine Hills in the Orlando metropolitan area.

Obama won the district both times with 73%. With a PVI of D+21 this district defines "safe." Republicans have trouble winning R+1 districts and they don't try-- not ever, not anywhere, when a district is D+6 or above. Brown is screaming and threatening to go to the Supreme Court because Judge Terry Lewis ordered the legislature to remove Sanford from her district, which might take her down from a D+21 to a D+19, depending on other factors. Republicans didn't bother running candidates against her in 2004, 2006 and 2008 and last year, when there was a Republican running with no support (and a campaign war chest of $19,941 against Brown's $613,190), Brown won with 71%. "We will go all the way to the United States Supreme Court," she thundered, "dealing with making sure that African Americans are not disenfranchised."

Give me a break. Instead of making deals with Republicans in states to create marginally red districts by agreeing to have ethnically-cleansed districts, Democrats like Brown could spread around some of her Democratic voters, still keep a deep blue district that she would never lose, and help the Democrats defeat John Mica, Dan Webster and Ron DeSantis. Marcia Fudge should know better, even if Corrine Brown can't see beyond her own careerism.

There are 43 congressional districts that have PVIs of D+20 and above. Many of them are specifically gerrymandered to keep minority voters inside an electoral ghetto that makes surrounding districts safe for Republicans. Brown's is one of them. Each of these is a minority majority district that could shed some Democratic voters, still be perfectly safe and help elect a Democrat or two in another district:

• AL-07 (33.6% white)- Terri Sewell (could threaten Matha Roby and Spencer Bachus)
• SC-06 (38.4% white)- Jim Clyburn (could threaten Tom Rice and Mark Sanford)
• GA-04 (31% white)- Hank Johnson (could threaten Tom Price)
• LA-02 (30.6% white)- Cedric Richmond (could threaten Bill Cassidy)
• MD-07 (36.1% white)- Elijah Cummings (could threaten Andy Harris)
• TX-09 (39.4% white)- Al Green (could threaten John Culbertson)
• TN-09 (28.2% white)- Steve Cohen (could threaten Steve Fincher)
• NC-12 (39.6% white)- vacant (could threaten Robert Pittenger, Howard Coble or Virginia Foxx)
• VA-03 (35.8% white)- Bobby Scott (could threaten Rob Wittman, Scott Rigell and Randy Forbes)
• TX-30 (41% white)- Eddie Bernice Johnson (could threaten Pete Sessions or Joe Barton)
• IL-01 (40.6% white)- Bobby Rush (could threaten Adam Kinzinger)
• MO-01 (44.9% white)- William Lacy Clay (could threaten Ann Wagner)
• MI-14 (33.6% white)- Gary Peters (could threaten Kerry Bentivolio)
• IL-02 (36.7% white)- Robin Kelly (could threaten Adam Kinzinger)
• FL-20 (39.9% white)- Alcee Hastings (could threaten Mario Diaz-Balart)
• OH-11 (40.1% white)- Marcia Fudge (could threaten David Joyce or Jim Renacci)
• GA-05 (33.4% white)- John Lewis (could threaten Tom Price)
• MI-13 (37.6% white)- John Conyers (could threaten Kerry Bentivolio)
• NJ-10 (29.8% white)- Donald Payne (could threaten Leonard Lance or Rodney Frelinghuysen)
• FL-24 (37.7% white)- Frederica Wilson (could threaten Mario Diaz-Balart)
• PA-02 (31.7% white)- Chaka Fattah (could threaten Pat Meehan)

Fudge to Steve Israel (on behalf of Corrine Brown): “On behalf of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), I write to express our ongoing concern with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) support of lawsuits challenging the validity of minority Congressional districts.Per our prior discussion, we are extremely disturbed by the DCCC’s efforts to dismantle CBC districts in states that have historically proven to be difficult to elect minority members. Considering the history of discrimination through efforts such as gerrymandering, the recent actions reflect the discrimination of days past."

So looks like these Republicans in the districts created by the electoral ghettos will be safe and sound until someone sits down with Democrats like Fudge and Brown and has a heart to heart with them. Fudge could easily lose 50,000 Democratic voters, take on 50,000 Republican votes, still win in a landslide-- Romney got 16% in her district) and swamp David Joyce in the 14th district next door, who won his last race 183,657 to 131,637.