Are The Republicans Pulling Ahead Of Democrats In Campaign Field Operations?

After watching how a weak Republican candidate, lobbyist David Jolly, managed to beat Alex Sink-- with the DCCC and EMILY's List all in-- after Sink spent $3,195,638-- double what Jolly spent-- it was clear that throwing money into media buys was more effective in enriching consultants than in winning elections. I asked an old friend of mine, Christian Schneider of Pivotal Campaign Services to explain what exactly a "grassroots campaign" is and why progressive candidates need to throw away the DCCC/consultant playbook and start thinking outside the box.

Field for Candidates
by Christian Schneider

When speaking with Candidates I try to impress upon them the importance of three things when setting up their campaign.

• A Budget is a strategy document. It will dictate your ability to run an effective and successful campaign.
• Invest solidly in developing a Field program.
• Be a candidate not a strategist or manager.

The one thing Dems historically have done better than the GOP in elections was field. But that gap is narrowing for two reasons. 1. Republicans are catching on. 2. Democrats are not running good field programs and are taking it for granted.

I met with a candidate earlier this year and we began speaking about “field” and the importance of it. At which point the candidate stopped me and said “I already have the grassroots." My jaw about dropped. Grassroots is not something you have or you go and get. You have to build grassroots, invest in it, earn it, and it takes hard work.

Field is usually one of the most neglected and underfunded aspects of a campaign. People either think it is "free" or that anyone can do it, and most candidates never consider hiring a "field consultant." So let’s take a look at field for a moment and discuss the importance of it in this year’s elections.

Across the country we have seen extremely low turnout in the primaries and, to be honest, I think you need to prepare for the same dramatic drop off rates in November. Here in California there is very little to be excited about and no big top ticket races driving voters to the polls.

Your high propensity voter will still be voting this year but that spells bad news for Dems because even though Dems have the numerical advantage registration wise, Republicans turn out to vote.

Before I describe the benefits of field lets clear up the usage of the term "field." GOTV-- Get Out The Vote-- is not a field program it is one small component of field. GOTV is the final week before election day where all departments move under field; political, communications, fundraising.

Field is the process of Direct Voter Contact--DVC-- and tracking the data it produces. Although "visibility" and "flyering" could also fall under field, unless you can quantify and provide metrics on your conversations with voters with a standard script and their responses; you are not running a field program.

Why field?

Field is not only the one of the most effective forms of persuading a voter because of the "personalized message," it is also one of the most cost effective and offers numerous cost saving benefits.

Below are some standard contact rates:

Canvassing: One additional vote for every 14 people successfully contacted.

Phone banks: One additional vote for every 35 people successfully contacted.

Literature Drops: One additional vote for every 66 people successfully contacted.

Direct Mail: One additional vote for every 133 people successfully contacted.

Robo-Calls: No discernable increase in voter turnout

"The study indicated that these tactics had greater impact in local (or down-ballot) elections and in mid-year elections. Although these numbers generalize the significant distinctions among different kinds of voters, the research powerfully illustrates the varying degrees of efficacy for each tactic."

If that doesn’t have your attention I don’t know what will. What is not mentioned are the peripheral benefits of running a canvass and phone bank.

A professional door knock program also provides these other cost efficiency benefits.

• When you knock on a door you are more than likely leaving a flyer or personalized note (see effects of flyering)
• You are positively impacting other voters in the household even if you don’t speak with them.
• You are providing real time data to see if message penetration is working and effective.
• You are cleaning the data and saving the campaign money by:
• ID’ing the voter (you don’t want to waste resources on people who will never vote for you)
• Removing Moved and Deceased voters. (Morbid as that seems, even worse is sending them mail)
• You are tracking their responses. ( As large as some districts seem there are still a finite amount of voters.)

You get all of that for roughly $2-3 dollars per knock vs. direct mail at 50-75 cents per piece with none of those benefits.

This is not to say you don’t need direct mail and other forms of media (some doors you can’t get to and can’t call) but investing in field makes your investment in media that much more powerful and effective.

I can go on and on, but don’t just listen to me, look at what Republicans are saying.

According to news reports, American Crossroads-- by far the best-funded force outside the RNC and the congressional committees-- and its affiliates raked in $300 million during the 2012 election cycle. Imagine if a fraction of that money had been spent on voter identification and GOTV efforts in the states mentioned above. It’s not like it was a secret as to where this election was going to be won or lost. It was a universe of no more than 9 states. Think about just $2M per state invested into GOTV. That’s $18M well spent. Instead, that money now pads the bank accounts of various individuals who, if not already millionaires before this cycle started, certainly are now.

Let’s be honest. Consultants can’t get rich off of voter identification and GOTV efforts.  There are no clients to bilk in GOTV. There’s just no real money in recruiting volunteers, surveying voters and knocking on doors. It’s hard work.

But there are votes.

The incestuous inside baseball game played by Republican consultants, where television ads and mailers allegedly win campaigns (and just happen to fatten the wallets of media consultants and direct mail firms), was exposed last night for the fraud that it is.

If the Republican Party, powered by the conservative movement, wants to win in the future, it’s going to have to change the way it does politics. It’s going to have to build a better machine from the ground up.

Sexy? No. Effective, yes.

For more in depth analysis of your race or questions feel free to email me at Christian@pivotalcampaignservices.com