All Is Not Lost For Sean Eldridge… He Has A 1% Chance To Win

Chuck and Sean-- haimish?

Monday the New York State AFL-CIO rolled out its congressional endorsements, It endorsed all the Democrats-- almost. Steve Israel's DCCC failed to recruit candidates against Chris Collins (in Kathy Hochul's old suburban Buffalo district), Richard Hanna in the swing district he took from Michael Acuri in 2010, and, of course, against Israel's crony Peter King on Long Island. The AFL-CIO ignored Democrats Pat Maher in the Long Island district, ignored Jim O'Connell's race against Collins and actually endorsed Hanna where no Democrat or WFP candidate is even running. The AFL-CIO did endorse every other Democratic challenger in the state-- except multimillionaire Sean Eldridge, who's running against the House's only real moderate Republican, Chris Gibson (NY-19). So, endorsements for vile corporatists Kathleen Rice (NY-04) and Domenic Recchia (NY-11), for Aaron Woolf (NY-21) and Martha Robertson (NY-23) but nothing for Eldridge. Looks like AFL-CIO endorsements-- unlike DCCC backing-- aren't for sale.

It could have been worse. The New York State United Teachers (NYSUT), which refused to endorse Andrew Cuomo, not only didn't endorse Eldridge… they endorsed Gibson! And on top of that, the latest polling shows Eldridge-- in a 50/50 D+1 district-- unable to even break 30%. Worse yet, the Environmental Defense Fund’s Action PAC today launched a $230,000 ad buy in favor of Gibson:



As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline Gibson had raised $2,261,120 and had $1,910,550 in cash on hand. Eldridge had raised $3,069,179 and had $2,106,220 on hand. But $1,340,000 came right out of Eldridge's personal bank account and most of the rest came from his wealthy friends in Manhattan, where he lives. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has already spent $350,000 bolstering Gibson and the DCCC's response? $9,136 (mostly in the form of bagels and lox Fed-Exed to Eldridge staffers weekly by Steve Israel).

The irony of all this, is that left to his own devises, Eldridge probably isn't a bad candidate. He may be too young and self-entitled but I hear he's got some progressive instincts. The problem is that in an effort to cement backing from the DCCC and Blue Dog Steve Israel, he's repressed those progressive instincts and come out like a tepid centrist. Multimillionaire tepid centrists may give Israel a woody but that isn't what inspires Democratic voters-- ergo the 29% support even after spending all that money (although, admittedly most of it was wasted on really horrible consultants the DCCC pushed on poor Sean like Jeffrey Pollock at the Global Strategy Group and the maker of insipid SKDKnickerbocker ads, Andrew Shipley). And to add insult to injury, even after Eldridge twisted himself into a pretzel to fit into Israel's mystery meat loser model, the DCCC support for him… doesn't go beyond the bagels and cream cheese.

The DCCC didn't even include Eldridge on their Red-to-Blue list until Eldridge threatened that he and his husband would stop financing Democrats and when Israel announced which districts the DCCC would be investing all those tens of millions of dollars they trick the Democratic grassroots to give them, NY-19 was not on the list. Israel is willing to throw away millions on absurd races in Michigan and Arkansas-- and is pumping money into NY races to help Recchia, Woolf and Robertson (all in tougher districts than Eldridge's) while studiously ignoring NY-19. Their House Majority PAC has taken the same stance: No money for NY-19.

Advice to Eldridge: forget Steve Israel and his failed Blue Dog stratagems. Think about how Elizabeth Warren displaced Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, how Alan Grayson beat GOP incumbent Ric Keller (in an R+3 district) and how Matt Cartwright beat Hoyer/Israel-backed Blue Dog Tim Holden last cycle in a Pennsylvania not very far from where you are. Hint: none of them bought into the mystery meat/GOP-light precepts of the Beltway Democrats that are wrecking your campaign. Candidates shall not live on bagels alone.

Eldridge's consultant-heavy campaign can do a lot better than this tepid, uninspiring, cookie-cutter, DCCC-grade crap he released yesterday, an ad that will neither inspire Democrats to go to the polls nor change the mind of a single independent or Republican-- just a total waste of money for everyone but the consultants who are getting rich while leading Eldridge down the garden path: