Is The GOP Ready To Bet The House-- And The Senate-- On Jebediah Bush?

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Even Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham were banging their heads on the table yesterday after Jeb Bush's clumsy self-insertion into the immigration debate. Apparently his ghost writer never bothered to tell him his book, Immigration Wars, had just come out with a closed door against a path to citizenship and, just as apparently, he seems to have forgotten his Wall Street Journal OpEd from way back over a month ago.

The only alternatives to increased immigration are mounting debts or reduced social services. A practicable system of work-based immigration for both high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants-- a system that will include a path to citizenship-- will help us meet workforce needs, prevent exportation of jobs to foreign countries and protect against the exploitation of workers.

Or, he's seriously contemplating whether or not America is ready for another Bush in the White House and now's he has to get to the right of the rest of the potential candidates if he's going to have a serious shot in the primaries. And that base, Know Nothing through and through, hates little more than paths to citizenship. So where does Jeb Bush stand on immigration debate? No one actually knows now. He-- and the rest of the Bush family, have always backed immigration (cheap labor) and a pathway to citizenship. Now he's hemming and hawing and all over the map, covering his tracks. This is what "his" book, released yesterday, says (standard GOP pabulum they all repeat verbatim in their sleep):

It is absolutely vital to the integrity of our immigration system that actions have consequences-- in this case, that those who violated the laws can remain but cannot obtain the cherished fruits of citizenship. To do otherwise would signal once again that people who circumvent the system can still obtain the full benefits of American citizenship. It must be a basic prerequisite for citizenship to respect the rule of law. But those who entered illegally, despite compelling reasons to do so in many instances, did so knowing that they were violating the law of the land. A grant of citizenship is an undeserving reward for conduct that we cannot afford to encourage...

Our proposal imposes two penalties for illegally entry: fines and/or community service, and ineligibility for citizenship. Yet it allows for illegal immigrants who have proven themselves to be otherwise law-abiding members of the community to remain in our country.

So that's the one where Republicans create an underclass of people living here with no power to protect themselves from avaricious employers. But when he was on Morning Joe yesterday he made a mealy-mouthed excuse that he wrote the book last year and that he could back a path to citizenship if... but then says he's "not smart enough" to figure it out.

It does look like he would rather not have the reputation as a moderate or even as a leader and policymaker. Beth Reinhard at National Journal chalks up the mess he's stepped into as bad timing on Bush's part.

[B]y recommending only legal residency and backing off his past support for citizenship, Bush is throwing cold water over a fledgling deal in the Senate, denting his own reputation as a bold policymaker and stoking speculation that he will run for president in 2016.

None of those things were supposed to happen.

The stunning reversal by one of the Republican Party’s leading champions of immigration reform and Hispanic outreach, at least in part, comes down to a colossal political miscalculation.

When Bush and coauthor Clint Bolick were writing the book during the 2012 presidential campaign, the GOP was veering far to the right. Republican nominee Mitt Romney had staked out a hard-line position against illegal immigration, blasting his primary rivals as pro-amnesty and promoting “self-deportation” for undocumented workers. Bush sent the book to the printer before Christmas-- weeks before a handful of Senate Republicans embraced a sweeping overhaul that, like the proposals backed by Bush’s brother, former President George W. Bush, would allow illegal immigrants to earn citizenship.

In other words, Bush's party moved a lot faster than the book-publishing world.

My take is more prosaic. The GOP is well aware that if Hillary Clinton runs, she'll be the next president. Not only will she win a landslide, the swing states won't be Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania... they'll be Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Indiana and South Carolina. The Senate, which will be extremely well-set-up for big Democratic gains in 2016 could be murderous for the Republicans who stand to lose seats currently held by McCain (Arizona), Ayotte (New Hampshire), Johnson (Wisconsin), Coats (Indiana), Vitter (Louisiana), Blunt (Missouri), Toomey (Pennsylvania), Kirk (Illinois), Grassley (Iowa), Paul (Kentucky), Rubio (Florida), Burr (North Carolina), and Portman (Ohio). With a Hillary sweep, they could be devastated. Same in the House, where Israel will be out of the DCCC job and a more vigorous and combative chairman will actually be targeting Republicans who Israel has protected, particularly committee chairmen like Fred Upton, Paul Ryan, Buck McKeon, Mike Rogers, Darrell Issa, and Ed Royce.

So, given that no Republican is going to beat Hillary, what's going to inspire the faithful red masses to get out and vote and pull the lever in the down-ballot races? How about a Rodan vs Godzilla type contest between a Bush and a Clinton? It could save David Vitter's and Rand Paul's seats.