This Could Be A Real Shakeup Election Year-- Even In The Conservative South

Progressive congressional candidate Cecil Bothwell (NC-11)

The new Gallup poll may be bad news for corrupt congressional careerists but it's really heartening for average American families. Like the heroes at OccupyWallStreet, Americans have HAD it with Congress.

About three-quarters of registered voters (76%) say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election, the highest such percentage Gallup has measured in its 19-year history of asking this question. The 20% who say most members deserve to be re-elected is also a record low, by one percentage point.

...A substantial majority of Republican (75%), independent (82%), and Democratic (68%) voters agree that most members of Congress do not deserve re-election -- a sign of rare consensus about the legislative body in which both parties currently hold a leadership stake.

The caveat is that, as always, voters are much more positive about their own congresscritter-- the only one they can vote against-- than they are about "most members of Congress," with 53% saying their representative deserves to be re-elected, while 39% hold the opposite view. But even this 39% is one of Gallup's highest ever numbers indicating actionable dissatisfaction with voters' own representatives.

How this antipathy toward Congress plays out in next year's congressional elections remains to be seen. Americans were not as negative last October, before the 2010 midterm elections, yet voters flipped 63 seats from Democratic to Republican control and gave the House to the GOP in the process. This was the largest seat gain by any party since 1948. If voters' current sentiments toward Congress prevail through next November's election, it is possible that control of the House would flip back to the Democrats, although such a conclusion is far from certain.

A whole pack of, mostly ultra conservative, Democrats was defeated-- or forced by reality into retirement-- in the South last year. Good riddance! This year some of those southern districts could well elect progressives or actual moderates. (Don't mix up raving right wing corporate whores like the Blue Dogs with actual moderates, though the raving right wing corporate whores always call themselves "moderates" and the press always obliges.)

Depending on which of a half dozen or more gerrymandered maps Florida voters go to the polls under-- and how toxic a role Steve Israel and the DCCC play in sabotaging progressives in primary races against right-wing faux-Dems-- Congress could wind up with a bumper crop of progressive freshmen from the Sunshine State next year. Not just progressive, but fighting progressives: Alan Grayson, Nick Ruiz, Dave Lutrin, Lois Frankel... And hopefully a progressive will get into the race against very vulnerable David Rivera as well and not cede the nomination to conservaDem DCCC plant Luis Garcia.

And, of course, it goes beyond Florida. The judiciary has taken district-drawing powers away from Texas' corrupt Republican legislature and drawn it's own, much fairer maps. (UPDATE... oops, as they always seem to say in Texas.) The result is at least one likely progressive freshman from Ft Worth in Congress next year: state Rep. Marc Veasey. And in Arkansas, the second district-- centered around Little Rock-- is a natural home for a progressive or moderate Democrat but is now being occupied by extreme right Karl Rove clone, Tim Griffin. General Wes Clark is thinking about jumping into the race .

Clark brings to the table a ton of positives and no real negatives that I can think of.  There’s the top military profile, the record of heroism going back to Vietnam, the name recognition from his presidential run, he’s someone progressives can get behind and he’d still have broad appeal to more conservative voters, he’d have a huge fundraising list and a national profile, plus he’s got charm and personality.  Clark is in his sixties but is still physically fit and active by all accounts.  In short, he’s the kind of first rate candidate that could take out Tim Felon.

And North Carolina could turn out to be more interesting yet. First and foremost-- however the court battle against the blatant gerrymandering by the GOP legislature turns out-- is the fight to oust reactionary Blue Dog Heath Shuler. There are, literally, half a dozen kooks and nuts (Republicans and teabaggers) fighting it out amongst themselves to challenge Shuler, whose district may or may not-- depending on the court case-- become a much, much redder district (and the expense of little Patrick McHenry, who would have a much bluer district-- and a great progressive opponent in state Rep. Patsy Keever). But can Shuler, a rabid Blue Dog, even make it to the general election? Blue America's interest is in the primary, where Shuler is being challenged by legendary Asheville City Councilman Cecil Bothwell. And Bothwell is lining up the kind of grassroots support it will take to dump one of John Boehner's most persistent allies inside the Democratic Party.

Last election, however, a relatively unknown candidate from Asheville pulled down nearly 40 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary and carried Buncombe County, the most liberal county in the region.

Shuler’s conservative stance helps him during the general election but drags down his primary numbers. Democratic voters punished Shuler during the last primary for not being liberal enough.

...While Bothwell has already started his campaign for the Democratic nomination, Shuler said he does not expect to spend much time or money running a primary race.

“Campaign mode does not kick in til August,” Shuler said.

Perfect for Bothwell, who is concentrating on the March primary. And the May primary will be a big deal in North Carolina because of the marriage equality amendment. Conservatives oppose it but most North Carolina voters-- and a really large majority of Democratic primary voters-- favor marriage equality. Bothwell is a lifelong champion of equal rights for all people, including gays and lesbians. Shuler is a raging homophobic bigot who crosses the aisle to vote with the Republicans against equality at every opportunity. In the current Congress, ProgressivePunch only rates 5 Democrats a zero on gay quality and Shuler is one of those 5 zeroes. Along with dozens and dozens of Republicans, the 5 Democrats who scored zero on gay equality issues were Shuler, of course, plus McIntyre (NC), Kissell (NC), Critz (PA) and Ross (AR), 5 vicious bigots who don't deserve to be considered Democrats.

Most recently anti-gay fanatic Virginia Foxx, also from North Carolina, but a Jesse Helms Republican, introduced an amendment to the Pentagon's budget that would require the Pentagon to back the GOP's anti-gay agenda. Even 6 Republicans found it too extreme to support but the 19 worst homophobic bigots among the Democrats, Shuler in the lead as usual, crossed the aisle and backed Foxx. Even more outrageously, when the Democrats voted on Patrick Murphy's amendment in 2010 to end Don't Ask Don't Tell it passed 234-194. Five Republicans crossed the aisle to vote in favor but Shuler led 26 conservative bigots into Boehner's arms. Most of those 26 have either retired or been defeated or have announced they're retiring next year. It's up to the Democratic primary voters in western North Carolina to hold Shuler accountable-- for this and all his other Republican votes.

In the middle of writing this post, examining Shuler's horrendous record, I realized we needed to get Bothwell up on our page dedicated to defeating Congress' worst homophobes. I'd say a zero qualifies Shuler for that.